Daily Manipulation Probability Dashboard

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📜 Summary
Tired of getting stopped out on a "Judas Swing" just before the price moves in your intended direction? This indicator is designed to give you a statistical edge by quantifying the daily manipulation move.

The Daily Manipulation Probability Dashboard analyzes thousands of historical trading days to reveal the probability of the initial "stop-hunt" or "fakeout" move reaching certain percentage levels. It presents this data in a clean, intuitive dashboard right on your chart, helping you make more data-driven decisions about stop-loss placement and entry timing.

🧠 The Core Concept
The logic is simple but powerful. For every trading day, we measure two things:
Amplitude Above Open (AAO): The distance price travels up from the daily open (High - Open).
Amplitude Below Open (ABO): The distance price travels down from the daily open (Open - Low).

The indicator defines the "Manipulation" as the smaller of these two moves. The idea is that this smaller move often acts as a liquidity grab to trap traders before the day's primary, larger move ("Distribution") begins.
This tool focuses exclusively on providing deep statistical insight into this crucial manipulation phase.

🛠️ How to Use This Tool
This dashboard is designed to be a practical part of your daily analysis and trade planning.

1. Smarter Stop-Loss Placement
This is the primary use case. The "Prob. (%)" column tells you the historical chance of the manipulation move being at least a certain size.

Example: If the table shows that for EURUSD, the ≥ 0.25% level has a probability of 30%, you can flip this information: there is a 70% probability that the daily manipulation move will be less than 0.25%.

Action: Placing your stop-loss just beyond a level with a low probability gives you a statistically sound buffer against typical stop-hunts.

2. Entry Timing and Patience
The live arrow (→) shows you where the current day's manipulation falls.

Example: If the arrow is pointing at ≥ 0.10% and you know there is a high probability (e.g., 60%) of the manipulation reaching ≥ 0.20%, you might wait for a deeper pullback before entering, anticipating that the "Judas Swing" hasn't completed yet.

3. Assessing Daily Character
Quickly see if the current day's action is unusual. If the manipulation move is already in a very low probability zone (e.g., > 1.00%), it might indicate that your Bias is wrong, or signal a high-volatility day or a potential trend reversal.

📊 Understanding the Dashboard

Ticker: The top-right shows the current symbol you are analyzing.
→ (Arrow): Points to the row that corresponds to the current, live day's manipulation amplitude.
Manip. Level: The percentage threshold being analyzed (e.g., ≥ 0.20%).
Days Analyzed: The raw count of historical days where the manipulation move met or exceeded this level.
Prob. (%): The key statistic. The cumulative probability of the manipulation move being at least the size of the level.

⚙️ Settings
Position: Choose where you want the dashboard to appear on your chart.
Text Size: Adjust the font size for readability.
Max Historical Days to Analyze: Set the number of past daily candles to include in the statistical analysis. A larger number provides a more robust sample size.
I believe this tool provides a unique, data-driven edge for intraday traders across all markets (Forex, Crypto, Stocks, Indices). Your feedback and suggestions are highly welcome!

- traderprimez

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Phát hành các Ghi chú

- Visual tweaks

6 thg 8

Phát hành các Ghi chú

- Added Intrday Visualizations of Daily Manipulations

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- Visual tweaks

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Phát hành các Ghi chú

- added Manipulation zone and stats for current developing day

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Phát hành các Ghi chú

- added visual text percentages for Manipulation zones

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Phát hành các Ghi chú

- added an option to show/hide the table
- added an option to show/hide the manipulation zones
- added an option to show daily candle on instraday timeframes (thanks to fadizeidan )

12 thg 8

Phát hành các Ghi chú

- added probability text besides manipulaiton zone text

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Phát hành các Ghi chú

- Visual tweaks

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Release Notes:
- fixed a critical bug causing run-time error on Lower timeframes

20 thg 8

Phát hành các Ghi chú

- Label position adjusted

20 thg 8

Phát hành các Ghi chú

- visual tweaks

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Phát hành các Ghi chú

Release Notes:
- Visual tweaks

22 thg 8

Phát hành các Ghi chú

- added separate toggles for zones and statistics labels

27 thg 8

Phát hành các Ghi chú

-enhanced visuals

27 thg 8

Phát hành các Ghi chú

- enhanced labels

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Phát hành các Ghi chú

- visual tweaks

30 thg 8

Phát hành các Ghi chú

- cleaned code

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Phát hành các Ghi chú

- visual tweaks

5 thg 9

Phát hành các Ghi chú

- added daily bias filter
- added manipulation zone projections
- enhanced visuals

5 thg 9

Phát hành các Ghi chú

- fixed font sizes