EvoTrend-X Indicator — Evolutionary Trend Learner Experimental

EvoTrend-X Indicator — Evolutionary Trend Learner


NOTE: This is an experimental Pine Script v6 port of a Python prototype. Pine wasn’t the original research language, so there may be small quirks—your feedback and bug reports are very welcome. The model is non-repainting, MTF-safe (lookahead_off + gaps_on), and features an adaptive (fitness-based) candidate selector, confidence gating, and a volatility filter.

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What it is

EvoTrend-X is adaptive trend indicator that learns which moving-average length best fits the current market. It maintains a small “population” of fast EMA candidates, rewards those that align with price momentum, and continuously selects the best performer. Signals are gated by a multi-factor Confidence score (fitness, strength vs. ATR, MTF agreement) and a volatility filter (ATR%). You get a clean Fast/Slow pair (for the currently best candidate), optional HTF filter, a fitness ribbon for transparency, and a themed info panel with a one-glance STATUS readout.

Core outputs
• Selected Fast/Slow EMAs (auto-chosen from candidates via fitness learning)
• Spread cross (Fast – Slow) → visual BUY/SELL markers + alert hooks
• Confidence % (0–100): Fitness ⊕ Distance vs. ATR ⊕ MTF agreement
• Gates: Trend regime (Kaufman ER), Volatility (ATR%), MTF filter (optional)
• Candidate Fitness Ribbon: shows which lengths the learner currently prefers
• Export plot: hidden series “EvoTrend-X Export (spread)” for downstream use

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Why it’s different
• Evolutionary learning (on-chart): Each candidate EMA length gets rewarded if its slope matches price change and penalized otherwise, with a gentle decay so the model forgets stale regimes. The best fitness wins the right to define the displayed Fast/Slow pair.
• Confidence gate: Signals don’t light up unless multiple conditions concur: learned fitness, spread strength vs. volatility, and (optionally) higher-timeframe trend.
• Volatility awareness: ATR% filter blocks low-energy environments that cause death-by-a-thousand-whipsaws. Your “why no signal?” answer is always visible in the STATUS.
• Preset discipline, Custom freedom: Presets set reasonable baselines for FX, equities, and crypto; Custom exposes all knobs and honors your inputs one-to-one.
• Non-repainting rigor: All MTF calls use lookahead_off + gaps_on. Decisions use confirmed bars. No forward refs. No conditional ta.* pitfalls.

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Presets (and what they do)
• FX 1H (Conservative): Medium candidates, slightly higher MinConf, modest ATR% floor. Good for macro sessions and cleaner swings.
• FX 15m (Active): Shorter candidates, looser MinConf, higher ATR% floor. Designed for intraday velocity and decisive sessions.
• Equities 1D: Longer candidates, gentler volatility floor. Suits index/large-cap trend waves.
• Crypto 1H: Mid-short candidates, higher ATR% floor for 24/7 chop, stronger MinConf to avoid noise.
• Custom: Your inputs are used directly (no override). Ideal for systematic tuning or bespoke assets.

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How the learning works (at a glance)
1. Candidates: A small set of fast EMA lengths (e.g., 8/12/16/20/26/34). Slow = Fast × multiplier (default ×2.0).
2. Reward/decay: If price change and the candidate’s Fast slope agree (both up or both down), its fitness increases; otherwise decreases. A decay constant slowly forgets the distant past.
3. Selection: The candidate with highest fitness defines the displayed Fast/Slow pair.
4. Signal engine: Crosses of the spread (Fast − Slow) across zero mark potential regime shifts. A Confidence score and gates decide whether to surface them.

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Controls & what they mean

Learning / Regime
• Slow length = Fast ×: scales the Slow EMA relative to each Fast candidate. Larger multiplier = smoother regime detection, fewer whipsaws.
• ER length / threshold: Kaufman Efficiency Ratio; above threshold = “Trending” background.
• Learning step, Decay: Larger step reacts faster to new behavior; decay sets how quickly the past is forgotten.

Confidence / Volatility gate
• Min Confidence (%): Minimum score to show signals (and fire alerts). Raising it filters noise; lowering it increases frequency.
• ATR length: The ATR window for both the ATR% filter and strength normalization. Shorter = faster, but choppier.
• Min ATR% (percent): ATR as a percentage of price. If ATR% < Min ATR% → status shows BLOCK: low vola.

MTF Trend Filter
• Use HTF filter / Timeframe / Fast & Slow: HTF Fast>Slow for longs, Fast<Slow for shorts. Keeps trades aligned with the larger tide.

Visuals & Diagnostics
• Theme: Auto/Light/Dark (panel text adapts).
• Regime background: Green/red wash in trending regimes.
• Show HTF EMAs: Adds transparent HTF Fast/Slow overlays for context.
• Candidate Fitness Ribbon: A two-row table: candidate length + color-coded fitness (warmer = stronger).
• Info Panel: Best Fast, ER, ATR%, HTF OK, Regime (“Trending/Chop”), Confidence % (with heat), and the effective cfg values (MinConf, ATR len, Min ATR%).
• Gate toggles (optional): Tiny dots at pane bottom for VOL OK, HTF OK, CONF OK.

Export
• Export selected spread (hidden): Hidden series “EvoTrend-X Export (spread)” to feed other scripts via input.source.

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How to use (recipes)

1) EURUSD, 1H (swing bias)
• Preset: FX 1H (Conservative).
• Gate: MinConf 65–75; Min ATR% ≈ 0.10–0.20.
• Flow: Trade spread cross up only when Regime = Trending, VOL OK, HTF OK, and Confidence ≥ MinConf.
• Tactic: Hold while spread remains ↑ and ER stays > threshold; exit when spread flips or Confidence decays below your comfort zone.

2) FX index/majors, 15m (active intraday)
• Preset: FX 15m (Active).
• Gate: MinConf 60–70; Min ATR% 0.15–0.30.
• Flow: Focus on session opens (LDN/NY). The ribbon should heat up on shorter candidates before valid crosses appear—good early warning.

3) SPY / Index futures, 1D (positioning)
• Preset: Equities 1D.
• Gate: MinConf 55–65; Min ATR% 0.05–0.12.
• Flow: Use spread crosses as regime flags; add timing from price structure. For adds, wait for ER to remain trending across several bars.

4) BTCUSD, 1H (24/7)
• Preset: Crypto 1H.
• Gate: MinConf 70–80; Min ATR% 0.20–0.35.
• Flow: Crypto chops—volatility filter is your friend. When ribbon and HTF OK agree, favor continuation entries; otherwise stand down.

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Reading the Info Panel (and fixing “no signals”)

The panel is your self-diagnostic:
• HTF OK? False means the higher-timeframe EMAs disagree with your intended side.
• Regime: If “Chop”, ER < threshold. Consider raising the threshold or waiting.
• Confidence: Heat-colored; if below MinConf, the gate blocks signals.
• ATR% vs. Min ATR%: If ATR% < Min ATR%, status shows BLOCK: low vola.
• STATUS (composite):
• BLOCK: low vola → increase Min ATR% down (i.e., allow lower vol) or wait for expansion.
• BLOCK: HTF filter → disable HTF or align with the HTF tide.
• BLOCK: confidence → lower MinConf slightly or wait for stronger alignment.
• OK → you’ll see markers on valid crosses.

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Alerts

Two static alert hooks:
• BUY cross — spread crosses up and all gates (ER, Vol, MTF, Confidence) are open.
• SELL cross — mirror of the above.
Create them once from “Add Alert” → choose the condition by name.

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Exporting to other scripts

In your other Pine indicators/strategies, add an input.source and select EvoTrend-X → “EvoTrend-X Export (spread)”. Common uses:
• Build a rule: only trade when exported spread > 0 (trend filter).
• Combine with your oscillator: oscillator oversold and spread > 0 → buy bias.

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Best practices
• Let it learn: Keep Learning step moderate (0.4–0.6) and Decay close to 1.0 (e.g., 0.99–0.997) for smooth regime memory.
• Respect volatility: Tune Min ATR% by asset and timeframe. FX 1H ≈ 0.10–0.20; crypto 1H ≈ 0.20–0.35; equities 1D ≈ 0.05–0.12.
• MTF discipline: HTF filter removes lots of “almost” trades. If you prefer aggressive entries, turn it off and rely more on Confidence.
• Confidence as throttle:
• 40–60%: exploratory; expect more signals.
• 60–75%: balanced; good daily driver.
• 75–90%: selective; catch the clean stuff.
• 90–100%: only A-setups; patient mode.
• Watch the ribbon: When shorter candidates heat up before a cross, momentum is forming. If long candidates dominate, you’re in a slower trend cycle.

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Non-repainting & safety notes
• All request.security() calls use lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off, gaps=barmerge.gaps_on.
• No forward references; decisions rely on confirmed bar data.
• EMA lengths are simple ints (no series-length errors).
• Confidence components are computed every bar (no conditional ta.* traps).

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Limitations & tips
• Chop happens: ER helps, but sideways microstructure can still flicker—use Confidence + Vol filter as brakes.
• Presets ≠ oracle: They’re sensible baselines; always tune MinConf and Min ATR% to your venue and session.
• Theme “Auto”: Pine cannot read chart theme; “Auto” defaults to a Dark-friendly palette.

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Publisher’s Screenshots Checklist

1) FX swing — EURUSD 1H
• Preset: FX 1H (Conservative)
• Params: MinConf=70, ATR Len=14, Min ATR%=0.12, MTF ON (TF=4H, 20/50)
• Show: Clear BUY cross, STATUS=OK, green regime background; Fitness Ribbon visible.



2) FX intraday — GBPUSD 15m
• Preset: FX 15m (Active)
• Params: MinConf=60, ATR Len=14, Min ATR%=0.20, MTF ON (TF=60m)
• Show: SELL cross near London session open. HTF lines enabled (translucent).
• Caption: “GBPUSD 15m • Active session sell with MTF alignment.”



3) Indices — SPY 1D
• Preset: Equities 1D
• Params: MinConf=60, ATR Len=14, Min ATR%=0.08, MTF ON (TF=1W, 20/50)
• Show: Longer trend run after BUY cross; regime shading shows persistence.
• Caption: “SPY 1D • Trend run after BUY cross; weekly filter aligned.”




4) Crypto — BINANCE:BTCUSDT 1H
• Preset: Crypto 1H
• Params: MinConf=75, ATR Len=14, Min ATR%=0.25, MTF ON (TF=4H)
• Show: BUY cross + quick follow-through; Ribbon warming (reds/yellows → greens).
• Caption: “BTCUSDT 1H • Momentum break with high confidence and ribbon turning.”