Bitcoin's Logarithmic Channel

Logarithmic growth is a reasonable way to describe the long term growth of bitcoin's market value: for a network that is experiencing growing adoption and is powered by an asset with a finite and disinflationary supply, it’s natural to expect a more explosive growth of its market capitalization early on, followed by diminishing returns as the network and the asset mature.

I used publicly available data to model the market capitalization of bitcoin, deriving thereform a set of three curves forming a logarithmic growth channel for the market capitalization of bitcoin. Using the time series for the circulating supply, we derive a logarithmic growth channel for the bitcoin price.

Model uses publicly available data from July 17, 2010 to December 31, 2022. Everything since the beginning of 2023 is a prediction.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.