Gold vs DXY

The 30-day rolling correlation between Gold (XAU/USD) and the US Dollar Index (DXY) shows how closely the two move together — or more often, in opposite directions — over the last 30 trading days. In most market environments, the relationship is pretty straightforward: when the dollar goes up, gold tends to go down, and vice versa. That’s because gold is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for international buyers, which usually softens demand.

But it’s not always that simple. There are times when this inverse correlation breaks down. For example, if real yields (like the US 10-year yield minus inflation expectations) are rising, that can pressure gold even if the dollar is falling — because higher real returns elsewhere make gold less attractive. Another case is when other currencies, like the euro or yen, rally strongly on their own central bank decisions. This can pull DXY lower without necessarily signaling weakness in the U.S. economy — meaning gold might not benefit much.

There are also “risk-on” moments where investors rotate into equities or crypto, selling off both gold and the dollar in favor of yield or momentum. And during periods of crisis or uncertainty, both gold and the dollar can rise together as safe-haven assets, breaking the usual pattern entirely.

That’s why tracking the rolling correlation is helpful. It shows whether the historical relationship between gold and the dollar is still holding — or if we’re entering a different market regime. It’s not about predicting exact price moves, but about understanding the current backdrop. When gold and DXY are moving out of sync as expected, it can support your trade thesis. But when the correlation flattens or flips, it’s often a sign to dig deeper — macro forces may be shifting.