Simplified Gap Strategy with SMA Filter

The Simplified Gap Strategy leverages price gaps as a trading signal, focusing on their significance in market behavior. Gaps occur when the opening price of a security differs significantly from the previous closing price, often signaling potential continuation or reversal patterns.

Key Features:

Gap Threshold:

This strategy requires a minimum percentage gap (defined by the user) to qualify for trading signals.

Directional Trading:

Users can select from various gap types, including "Long Up Gap" and "Short Down Gap," allowing for tailored trading approaches.

SMA Filter:

An optional Simple Moving Average (SMA) filter helps refine trade entries based on trend direction, increasing the probability of successful trades.

Hold Duration:

Positions can be held for a user-defined duration, providing flexibility in trade management.

Statistical Significance of Gaps:

Research has shown that gaps can provide insights into future price movements. According to studies such as those by Hutton and Jiang (2008), price gaps are often followed by momentum in the direction of the gap, indicating that they can serve as reliable indicators for traders. The "Gap Theory" suggests that gaps are filled approximately 90% of the time, emphasizing their relevance in market dynamics (Nikkinen, Sahlström, & Kinnunen, 2006).

Important Note:

This strategy is designed solely for statistical analysis and should not be construed as financial advice. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and analysis before applying this strategy in live trading scenarios.

By understanding the underlying mechanisms of price gaps and their statistical significance, traders can enhance their decision-making processes and potentially improve trading outcomes.

References:

Hutton, A. W., & Jiang, W. (2008). "Price Gaps: A Guide to Trading Gaps."
Nikkinen, J., Sahlström, P., & Kinnunen, J. (2006). "The Gaps in Financial Markets: An Empirical Study."
This description provides an overview of the strategy while emphasizing its analytical purpose and backing it with relevant academic insights.