Ethereum Logarithmic Regression Bands

Overview
This indicator displays logarithmic regression bands for Ethereum. Logarithmic regression is a statistical method used to model data where growth slows down over time. I initially created these bands in 2021 using a spreadsheet, and later coded them in TradingView in 2022. Over time, the bands proved effective at capturing bull market peaks and bear market lows. In 2025, I decided to share this indicator because I believe these logarithmic regression bands offer the best fit for the Ethereum chart.


How It Works
The logarithmic regression lines are fitted to the Ethereum (ETHUSD) chart using two key factors: the 'a' factor (slope) and the 'b' factor (intercept). The formula for logarithmic regression is 10^((a * ln) - b).


How to Use the Logarithmic Regression Bands
1. Lower Band:
The lower (blue) band forms a potential support area for Ethereum’s price. Historically, Ethereum has found its lows within this band during past market cycles. When the price is within the lower band, it suggests that Ethereum is undervalued.
2. Upper Band:
The upper (red) band forms a potential resistance area for Ethereum’s price. The logarithmic band is fitted to the past two market cycle peaks; therefore, there is not enough historical data to be sure it will reach the upper band again. However, the chance is certainly there! If the price is within the upper band, it indicates that Ethereum is overvalued and that a potential price correction may be imminent.