GME Warrant Tracker [theUltimator5]

The GME Warrant Tracker was designed to be used for GME warrants tracking. The theory behind this indicator is that warrants are priced similarly to options and generally follow the same Greeks. With that assumption, we can break down the price of the warrants by using known Greeks to estimate either the theoretical price, or even estimate Implied Volatility (IV).

The base settings for this indicator plot the calculated IV, the theoretical price (there are multiple methods of calculation which I will discuss later) and the current warrant price.

You can toggle on or off all of these plots to display only what you want to track.
For example, you can simply track the difference between the theoretical price and the current price to see if warrants are trading at a premium or a discount vs what the indicator calculates it to be.


Calculating implied volatility is extremely difficult and must be approximated.

The theoretical warrant price produced by this indicator depends primarily on the volatility input (σ) used in the Black–Scholes pricing model.

This script supports five distinct methods for approximating σ, each extracting different information from the market.

1) Close-to-Close Historical Volatility
Close-to-Close computes the standard deviation of daily close-to-close returns and uses a lookback window scaled to time-to-expiry. As the expiration approaches, the lookback window tightens, giving a more responsive volatility approximation relative to time-to-expiry.
This option produces conservative approximations for volatility, and may lag actual volatility intraday.

2) Parkinson High-Low Volatility
Parkinson High-Low volatility uses daily high and low prices to calculate intraday trading range for a more responsive estimation to volatility. It ignores opening and close gaps, so overnight volatility is not accounted for.
This option produces higher theoretical volatility during choppy price action and can over estimate actual volatility.

3) Garman–Klass Volatility
Garman–Klass volatility is a way to estimate how much price is fluctuating by using the open, high, low, and close for each period. Because it draws on multiple intraperiod price points (not just the range or close-to-close moves), it typically produces a tighter, more informative volatility estimate than simpler approaches. It’s often most helpful when gaps occur and when the open and close carry meaningful information about the session’s trading.

4)Yang–Zhang Volatility
The Yang–Zhang volatility estimator is designed to account for both opening jumps and price drift. It estimates volatility by combining overnight (close-to-open) variance, intraday (open-to-close) variance, and a weighted Rogers–Satchell component using OHLC data, often yielding a more robust measure than simpler close-to-close style estimators.

5) Option price
By default, the indicator uses the call option strike dated closest to the warrant expiration date. Since the Greeks for both the warrants and the
options are assumed to be equivalent with a minor difference in theta (time-to-expiry), the theoretical price of the warrants closely matches the trade price of the call strike chosen.


There is a table that can be enabled (off by default because it is large and fills entire screen on mobile) which shows all the configuration settings and Greeks.

You can also manually adjust the "dilution" factor for the warrants, which shifts the number of active warrants and moves the count into the shares outstanding for the underlying (GME). The reason for this is that as warrants get exercised, the total quantity of warrants in circulation decreases and the the total quantity of shares outstanding increases.

Since this indicator was built around the single warrant, ticker NYSE: GME/W, it is only meant to be used with NYSE:GME. Any other ticker will not work properly with this indicator.