Z-Strike Recovery

22 thg 12, 2024

This strategy utilizes the Z-Score of daily changes in the VIX (Volatility Index) to identify moments of extreme market panic and initiate long entries. Scientific research highlights that extreme volatility levels often signal oversold markets, providing opportunities for mean-reversion strategies.

How the Strategy Works

Calculation of Daily VIX Changes:

The difference between today’s and yesterday’s VIX closing prices is calculated.

Z-Score Calculation:

The Z-Score quantifies how far the current change deviates from the mean (average), expressed in standard deviations:

Z-Score=(Daily VIX Change)−MeanStandard Deviation
Z-Score=Standard Deviation(Daily VIX Change)−Mean​

The mean and standard deviation are computed over a rolling period of 16 days (default).

Entry Condition:

A long entry is triggered when the Z-Score exceeds a threshold of 1.3 (adjustable).
A high positive Z-Score indicates a strong overreaction in the market (panic).

Exit Condition:

The position is closed after 10 periods (days), regardless of market behavior.

Visualizations:

The Z-Score is plotted to make extreme values visible.
Horizontal threshold lines mark entry signals.
Bars with entry signals are highlighted with a blue background.

This strategy is particularly suitable for mean-reverting markets, such as the S&P 500.
Scientific Background

Volatility and Market Behavior:

Studies like Whaley (2000) demonstrate that the VIX, known as the "fear gauge," is highly correlated with market panic phases. A spike in the VIX is often interpreted as an oversold signal due to excessive hedging by investors.

Source: Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.

Z-Score in Financial Strategies:

The Z-Score is a proven method for detecting statistical outliers and is widely used in mean-reversion strategies.

Source: Chan, E. (2009). Quantitative Trading. Wiley Finance.

Mean-Reversion Approach:

The strategy builds on the mean-reversion principle, which assumes that extreme market movements tend to revert to the mean over time.

Source: Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.