Anchored Probability Cone by Tenozen

15 thg 5

First of all, credit to nasu_is_gaji for the open source code of Log-Normal Price Forecast! He teaches me alot on how to use polylines and inverse normal distribution from his indicator, so check it out!

What is this indicator all about?
This indicator draws a probability cone that visualizes possible future price ranges with varying levels of statistical confidence using Inverse Normal Distribution, anchored to the start of a selected timeframe (4h, W, M, etc.)

Feutures:

• Anchored Cone: Forecasts begin at the first bar of each chosen higher timeframe, offering a consistent point for analysis.
  
• Drift & Volatility-Based Forecast: Uses log returns to estimate market volatility (smoothed using VWMA) and incorporates a trend angle that users can set manually.
  
• Probabilistic Price Bands: Displays price ranges with 5 customizable confidence levels (e.g., 30%, 68%, 87%, 99%, 99,9%).
  
• Dynamic Updating: Recalculates and redraws the cone at the start of each new anchor period.
  

How to use:

1. Choose the Anchored Timeframe (PineScript only be able to forecast 500 bars in the future, so if it doesn't plot, try adjusting to a lower anchored period).
   
2. You can set the Model Length, 100 sample is the default. The higher the sample size, the higher the bias towards the overall volatility. So better set the sample size in a balanced manner.
   
3. If the market is inside the 30% conifidence zone (gray color), most likely the market is sideways. If it's outside the 30% confidence zone, that means it would tend to trend and reach the other probability levels.
   
4. Always follow the trend, don't ever try to trade mean reversions if you don't know what you're doing, as mean reversion trades are riskier.
   

That's all guys! I hope this indicator helps! If there's any suggestions, I'm open for it! Thanks and goodluck on your trading journey!

19 thg 5

Phát hành các Ghi chú

Minor Fix:

Probability cone anchored from the x bar open instead of close

20 thg 5

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New Feature:

Anchored Type added

23 thg 5

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Optimization:

Faster calculation on "Manual Anchored Point" mode

18 thg 6

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Minor Fix:

Probability calculation fixed, now the cone projects accurately based on the probability given