MoonFlag BTC Daily Swing Predictor

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This script mainly works on BTC on the daily timeframe. Other coins also show similar usefulness with this script however, BTC on the daily timeframe is the main design for this script.

(Please note this is not trading advice this is just comments about how this indicator works.)

This script is predictive. It colors the background yellow when the script calculates a large BTC swing is potentially about to happen. It does not predict in which direction the swing will occur but it leads the price action so can be useful for leveraged trades. When the background gets colored with vertical yellow lines - this shows that a largish price swing is probably going to occur.

The scripts also shades bands around the price action that are used to estimate an acceptable volatility at any given time. If the bands are wide that means price action is volatile and large swings are not easily predicted. Over time, with reducing volatility, these price action bands narrow and then at a set point or percentage (%) which can be set in the script settings, the background gets colored yellow. This indicates present price action is not volatile and a large price swing is potentially going to happen in the near future. When price action breaks through the narrowing bands, the background is no longer presented because this is seen as an increase in volatility and a considerable portion of the time, a large sudden drop in price action or momentous gain in price is realized.

This indicator leads price action. It predicts that a swing is possibly going to happen in the near future. As the indicator works on the BTC daily, this means on a day-to-day basis if the bands continually narrow - a breakout is more likely to happen. In order to see how well this indicator works, have a look at the results on the screenshot provided. Note the regions where vertical yellow lines are present on the price action - and then look after these to see if a sizeable swing in price has occurred.

To use this indicator - wait until yellow vertical lines are presented on the BTC daily. Then use your experience to determine which way the price action might swing and consider entering a trade or leveraged trade in this direction. Alternatively wait a while to see in which direction the break-out occurs and considering and attempt to trade with this. Sometimes swings can be unexpected and breakout in one direction before then swinging much larger in the other. Its important to remember/consider that this indicator works on the BTC daily timeframe, so any consideration of entering a trade should be expected to cover a duration over many days or weeks, or possibly months. A large swing is only estimated every several plus months.

Most indicators are based on moving averages. A moving average is not predictive in the sense in that it lags price actions. This indicator creates bands that are based on the momentum of the price action. A change in momentum of price action therefore causes the bands to widen. When the bands narrow this means that the momentum of the price action is steady and price action volatility has converged/reduced over time. With BTC this generally means that a large swing in price action is going to occur as momentum in price action then pick-up again in one direction or another. Trying to view this using moving averages is not easy as a moving average lags price action which means that it is difficult to predict any sudden movements in price action ahead of when they might occur. Although, moving averages will converge over time in a similar manner as the bands calculated by this script. This script however, uses the price action momentum in a predictive manner to estimate where the price action might go based on present price momentum. This script therefore reacts to reduced volatility in price action much faster than a set of moving averages over various timescales can achieve.

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