BUY & SELL Probability (M5..D1) - MTF

MTF Probability Indicator (M5 to D1)

Indicator — Dual Histogram with Buy/Sell Labels

This indicator is designed to provide a probabilistic bias for bullish or bearish conditions by combining three different analytical components across multiple timeframes. The goal is to reduce noise from single-indicator signals and instead highlight confluence where trend, momentum, and strength agree.

Why this combination is useful
- EMA(200) Trend Filter: Identifies whether price is trading above or below a widely used long-term moving average.
- MACD Momentum: Detects short-term directional momentum through line crossovers.
- ADX Strength: Measures how strong the trend is, preventing signals in weak or flat markets.

By combining these, the indicator avoids situations where one tool signals a trade but others do not, helping to filter out low-probability setups.

How it works
- Each timeframe (M5, M15, H1, H4, D1) generates its own trend, momentum, and strength score.
- Scores are weighted according to user-defined importance and then aggregated into a single probability.
- Proximity to recent support and resistance levels can adjust the final score, accounting for nearby barriers.
- The final probability is displayed as:
- Histogram (subwindow): Green bars for bullish probability >50%, red bars for bearish <50%.
- On-chart labels: Showing exact buy/sell percentages on the last bar for quick reference.

Inputs
- EMA length (default 200), MACD settings, ADX period.
- Weights for each timeframe and component (trend, momentum, strength).
- Optional boost for the chart’s current timeframe.
- Smoothing length for probability values.
- Lookback period for support/resistance adjustment.

How to use it
- A green histogram above zero indicates bullish probability >50%.
- A red histogram below zero indicates bearish probability >50%.
- Neutral readings near 50% show low confluence and may be best avoided.
- Users can adjust weights to emphasize higher or lower timeframes, depending on their trading style.

Notes
- This script does not guarantee profitable trades.
- Best used together with price action, volume, or additional confirmation tools.
- Signals are calculated only on closed bars to avoid repainting.
- For testing and learning purposes — not financial advice.