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Cập nhật SOFR Spread (proxy: FEDFUNDS - US03MY)

📊 SOFR Spread (Proxy: FEDFUNDS - US03MY) – Monitoring USD Money Market Liquidity

In 2008, the spread exhibits a sharp vertical spike, signaling a severe liquidity dislocation: investors rushed into short-term U.S. Treasuries, pushing their yields down dramatically, while the FEDFUNDS rate remained relatively high.
This behavior indicates extreme systemic stress in the interbank lending market, preceding massive Federal Reserve interventions such as rate cuts, emergency liquidity operations, and the launch of quantitative easing (QE).
Description:
This indicator plots the spread between the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) and the 3-Month US Treasury Bill yield (US03MY), used here as a proxy for the SOFR spread.
It serves as a simple yet powerful tool to detect liquidity dislocations and stress signals in the US short-term funding markets.
Interpretation:
🔴 Spread > 0.20% → Possible liquidity stress: elevated repo rates, cash shortage, interbank distrust.
🟡 Spread ≈ 0% → Normal market conditions, balanced liquidity.
🟢 Spread < 0% → Excess liquidity: strong demand for T-Bills, “flight to safety”, or distortion due to expansionary monetary policy.
Ideal for:
Monitoring Fed policy impact
Anticipating market-wide liquidity squeezes
Correlation with DXY, SPX, VIX, MOVE Index, and risk sentiment
🧠 Note: As SOFR is not directly available on TradingView, FEDFUNDS is used as a reliable proxy, closely tracking the same trends in most macro conditions.
In 2008, the spread exhibits a sharp vertical spike, signaling a severe liquidity dislocation: investors rushed into short-term U.S. Treasuries, pushing their yields down dramatically, while the FEDFUNDS rate remained relatively high.
This behavior indicates extreme systemic stress in the interbank lending market, preceding massive Federal Reserve interventions such as rate cuts, emergency liquidity operations, and the launch of quantitative easing (QE).
Description:
This indicator plots the spread between the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) and the 3-Month US Treasury Bill yield (US03MY), used here as a proxy for the SOFR spread.
It serves as a simple yet powerful tool to detect liquidity dislocations and stress signals in the US short-term funding markets.
Interpretation:
🔴 Spread > 0.20% → Possible liquidity stress: elevated repo rates, cash shortage, interbank distrust.
🟡 Spread ≈ 0% → Normal market conditions, balanced liquidity.
🟢 Spread < 0% → Excess liquidity: strong demand for T-Bills, “flight to safety”, or distortion due to expansionary monetary policy.
Ideal for:
Monitoring Fed policy impact
Anticipating market-wide liquidity squeezes
Correlation with DXY, SPX, VIX, MOVE Index, and risk sentiment
🧠 Note: As SOFR is not directly available on TradingView, FEDFUNDS is used as a reliable proxy, closely tracking the same trends in most macro conditions.
Phát hành các Ghi chú
📊 SOFR Spread (Proxy: FEDFUNDS - US03MY) – Monitoring USD Money Market LiquidityIn 2008, the spread exhibits a sharp vertical spike, signaling a severe liquidity dislocation: investors rushed into short-term U.S. Treasuries, pushing their yields down dramatically, while the FEDFUNDS rate remained relatively high.
This behavior indicates extreme systemic stress in the interbank lending market, preceding massive Federal Reserve interventions such as rate cuts, emergency liquidity operations, and the launch of quantitative easing (QE).
Description:
This indicator plots the spread between the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) and the 3-Month US Treasury Bill yield (US03MY), used here as a proxy for the SOFR spread.
It serves as a simple yet powerful tool to detect liquidity dislocations and stress signals in the US short-term funding markets.
Interpretation:
🔴 Spread > 0.20% → Possible liquidity stress: elevated repo rates, cash shortage, interbank distrust.
🟡 Spread ≈ 0% → Normal market conditions, balanced liquidity.
🟢 Spread < 0% → Excess liquidity: strong demand for T-Bills, “flight to safety”, or distortion due to expansionary monetary policy.
Ideal for:
Monitoring Fed policy impact
Anticipating market-wide liquidity squeezes
Correlation with DXY, SPX, VIX, MOVE Index, and risk sentiment
🧠 Note: As SOFR is not directly available on TradingView, FEDFUNDS is used as a reliable proxy, closely tracking the same trends in most macro conditions.
Phát hành các Ghi chú
📊 SOFR Spread (Proxy: FEDFUNDS - US03MY) – Monitoring USD Money Market LiquidityIn 2008, the spread exhibits a sharp vertical spike, signaling a severe liquidity dislocation: investors rushed into short-term U.S. Treasuries, pushing their yields down dramatically, while the FEDFUNDS rate remained relatively high.
This behavior indicates extreme systemic stress in the interbank lending market, preceding massive Federal Reserve interventions such as rate cuts, emergency liquidity operations, and the launch of quantitative easing (QE).
Description:
This indicator plots the spread between the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) and the 3-Month US Treasury Bill yield (US03MY), used here as a proxy for the SOFR spread.
It serves as a simple yet powerful tool to detect liquidity dislocations and stress signals in the US short-term funding markets.
Interpretation:
🔴 Spread > 0.20% → Possible liquidity stress: elevated repo rates, cash shortage, interbank distrust.
🟡 Spread ≈ 0% → Normal market conditions, balanced liquidity.
🟢 Spread < 0% → Excess liquidity: strong demand for T-Bills, “flight to safety”, or distortion due to expansionary monetary policy.
Ideal for:
Monitoring Fed policy impact
Anticipating market-wide liquidity squeezes
Correlation with DXY, SPX, VIX, MOVE Index, and risk sentiment
🧠 Note: As SOFR is not directly available on TradingView, FEDFUNDS is used as a reliable proxy, closely tracking the same trends in most macro conditions.
Mã nguồn mở
Theo đúng tinh thần TradingView, người tạo ra tập lệnh này đã biến tập lệnh thành mã nguồn mở để các nhà giao dịch có thể xem xét và xác minh công năng. Xin dành lời khen tặng cho tác giả! Mặc dù bạn có thể sử dụng miễn phí, nhưng lưu ý nếu đăng lại mã, bạn phải tuân theo Quy tắc nội bộ của chúng tôi.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.
Mã nguồn mở
Theo đúng tinh thần TradingView, người tạo ra tập lệnh này đã biến tập lệnh thành mã nguồn mở để các nhà giao dịch có thể xem xét và xác minh công năng. Xin dành lời khen tặng cho tác giả! Mặc dù bạn có thể sử dụng miễn phí, nhưng lưu ý nếu đăng lại mã, bạn phải tuân theo Quy tắc nội bộ của chúng tôi.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.