Delta ROC (acceleration) + Guide

Stan Druckenmiller often stresses that markets are driven not by absolute numbers but by their rate of change. He says the key is to “focus on the central banks and the movement of liquidity,” and notes that “because it used second-derivative rate of change, these things will often bottom a year to a year and a half before the fundamentals.” In essence, he looks for inflection points—moments when momentum itself begins to turn—well before the data or headlines confirm it.

The ΔROC (Delta Rate of Change) indicator applies that same philosophy. It measures both the first derivative of price (ROC: speed or momentum) and the second derivative (ΔROC: acceleration or deceleration of that momentum). Green bars signal that momentum is accelerating—buyers gaining control—while red bars show slowing momentum or exhaustion. Combine this with trend filters like the 30- and 50-day moving averages to spot early shifts in sentiment and liquidity—the kind of turning points Druckenmiller calls the “second-derivative moments” that often lead the real economy by months.