Bitcoin Margin Call Envelopes [saraphig & alexgrover]Bitcoin is the most well known digital currency, and allow two parties to make a transaction without the need of a central entity, this is why cryptocurrencies are said to be decentralized, there is no central unit in the transaction network, this can be achieved thanks to cryptography. Bitcoin is also the most traded cryptocurrency and has the largest market capitalization, this make it one of the most liquid cryptocurrency.
There has been tons of academic research studying the profitability of Bitcoin as well as its role as a safe heaven asset, with all giving mixed conclusions, some says that Bitcoin is to risky to be considered as an hedging instrument while others highlight similarities between Bitcoin and gold thus showing evidence on the usefulness of Bitcoin acting as an hedging instrument. Yet Bitcoin seems to attract more short term speculative investors rather than other ones that would use Bitcoin as an hedging instrument.
Once introduced, cryptocurrencies where of course heavily analyzed by technical analyst, and technical indicators where used by retail as well as institutional investors in order to forecast the future trends of bitcoin. I never really liked the idea of designing indicators that specifically worked for only one type of market and ever less on only one symbol. Yet the user @saraphig posted in Feb 20 an indicator called " Margin Call MovingAverage " who calculate liquidation price by using a volume weighted moving average. It took my attention and we decided to work together on a relatively more complete version that would include resistances levels.
I believe the proposed indicator might result useful to some users, the code also show a way to restrict the use of an indicator to only one symbol (line 9 to 16).
The Indicator
The indicator only work on BTCUSD, if you use another symbol you should see the following message:
The indicator plot 6 extremities, with 3 upper (resistance) extremities and 3 lower (support) extremities, each one based on the isolated margin mode liquidation price formula:
UPlp = MA/Leverage × (Leverage+1-(Leverage*0.005))
for upper extremities and:
DNlp = MA × Leverage/(Leverage+1-(Leverage*0.005))
for lower extremities.
Length control the period of the moving averages, with higher values of length increasing the probability of the price crossing an extremity. The Leverage's settings control how far away their associated extremities are from the price, with lower values of Leverage making the extremity farther away from the price, Leverage 3 control Up3 and Dn3, Leverage 2 control Up2 and Dn2, Leverage 1 control Up1 and Dn1, @saraphig recommend values for Leverage of either : 25, 20, 15, 10 ,5.
You can select 3 different types of moving average, the default moving average is the volume weighted moving average (VWMA), you can also choose a simple moving average (SMA) and the Kaufman adaptive moving average (KAMA).
Based on my understanding (which could be wrong) the original indicator aim to highlight points where margin calls might have occurred, hence the name of the indicator.
If you want a more "DSP" like description then i would say that each extremity represent a low-pass filter with a passband greater than 1 for upper extremities and lower than 1 for lower extremities, unlike bands indicators made by adding/subtracting a volatility indicator from another moving average this allow to conserve the original shape of the moving average, the downside of it being the inability to show properly on different scales.
here length = 200, on a 1h tf, each extremities are able to detect short-terms tops and bottoms. The extremity become wider when using lower time-frames.
You would then need to increase the Leverages settings, i recommend a time frame of 1h.
Conclusion
I'am not comfortable enough to make a conclusion, as i don't know the indicator that well, however i liked the original indicator posted by @saraphig and was curious about the idea behind it, studying the effect of margin calls on market liquidity as well as making indicators based on it might result a source of inspiration for other traders.
A big thanks to @saraphig who shared a lot of information about the original indicator and allowed me to post this one. I don't exclude working with him/her in the future, i invite you to follow him/her:
www.tradingview.com
Thx for reading and have a nice weekend! :3
BTCUSD
RSI & StochasticA combination of RSI and Stochastic using default settings.
- RSI or Relative Strength Index is the white line.
- Stochastic %K is the aqua line
- Stochastic %D is the orange line
- The purple rectangle is the RSI range going from 30 (oversold) at the bottom to 70 (overbought)
- The top dotted line indicates the price being overbought on the stochastic
- The bottom dotted line indicates the price oversold on the stochastic
I mainly use both indicators to spot divergence/ potential upcoming turning points (tops or bottoms).
For example on the chart the white line shows the price of Bitcoin Rising
While the yellow line shows the stochastic declining and the red RSI stayed more or less at the same level.
Another way to use this indicator is to use the aqua line crossing above the orange line as an entry for a long trade this strategy is most useful when both are near the bottom of the range. The opposite is true for short trades but
both should be combined with other indicators such as moving averages support levels or volume for best results.
Generally RSI is more useful in trending markets & the stochastic is more useful in sideways or choppy markets.
Market EKGShort Summary
This indicator takes the differences in the previous 4 period OHLC inputs, and compares them to the previously closed candle input. The difference is then placed into an oscillator that when all four inputs are scrolled back on, shows an EKG appearing oscillator / volatility measure for traders to use on indexes, tickers and markets that do not allow typical volume based indicators.
Full Summary
Named for its similar appearance to an EKG medical chart, this script takes the difference in relative averages of previous periods in a trend , and compares it to the most recent period input. This can be used as a price based volatility measure, useful in markets that may be limited by no valume measures or other indexes where volatility is useful to meeasure but will not allow volume initializations.
Steps taken
Taking Previous Period OHLC
Taking Previous 3 Periods OHLC Avgs
Difference Between #1 & #2 (Comparing most recent confirmation to relative trend
Plot Results
This RSI Script is intended for public use and can be shared / implemented as needed
Questions? I do not monitor my TradingView inbox. See email address in signature at the bottom of this page for contact information.
Use this script and its calculations as needed! No permission required.
Cheers,
Alert-QuarryLake Indicator Map - ATR Trend Following Strategy A lot of times I don't like my chart crowding with indicators, thus the reason for creating this script for my strategy QuarryLake.
This script also comes with alert.
Below is the explanation for QuarryLake
I have also updated the script in version 4.
This strategy consists of 3 indicators that I found works quite well together.
Keltner Channel, Waddah Attah Explosion, and Volatility Stop.
You can find WAE here
KC Period = 200
KCATR = 5
Vstop Period = 3
Vstop Mult = 1.5
Long when close > KC, close > Vstop, WAE trendUp
Short when close < KC, close < Vstop, WAE trendDown
Works well on BTCUSD XBTUSD, as well as other major liquid Pair.
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @Lancelot_Auger for more free Alpha.
Please acknowledge my effort by like and follow.
And lastly,
Save Hong Kong, the revolution of our times.
Deadband cross detection for BTC (XBT)Description: meant to be used with BTCUSD (or XBTUSD ) on 3 mins to 1h candles charts.
Idea is to provide a tool to detect break-out's from a dead band around an EMA, and to detect back-in's to the dead band.
Detection is fundamentally based on how much %, at least, a certain candle body has ruptured the dead band (adjustable).
Long and short flags are placed on the chart, as well as the deadband. Can be used to generate alers.
With minimal modifications, can be convert to a Strategy script.
Following are ideas to play around if you want. Room for improvements:
- convert constants into inputs, and diversify thresholds assimetrically
- play around with wether or not using pyramiding (here pyramiding is blocked)
- look at several bars in a sequence, not only current
Bitcoin Halving CountdownHello traders,
I offer you today the BTC halving countdown updated in real-time on your charts
I inspired myself greatly from the gentleman @everget's script LTC halving countdown below
(
The countdown date is coming from that source www.bitcoinblockhalf.com.
The halving date is estimated to be around May 13th, 2020 .
That date is hardcoded in the script and is used for the countdown calculation.
The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.
Enjoy the weekend
Dave
ANN BTC MTF CM Sling Shot SystemHi all, this script was created as a result of ANN training in all time frames of bitcoin data.
Trained data is built on Chris Moody's Sling Shot system.
CM Sling Shot System :
This system automatically generates the ANN output for all time periods.
Therefore, it has multi-time-frame feature.
Artificial Neural Networks training details:
Average Errors
1 minute = 0.005570
3 minutes = 0.006674
5 minutes = 0.007067
15 minutes = 0.010000
30 minutes = 0.009398
45 minutes = 0.010000
1 Hour = 0.006848
2 Hours = 0.006901
3 Hours = 0.009608
4 Hours = 0.009774
1 Day = 0.010000
1 Week = 0.010000
The results look good (All Average Error <= 0.01 ), the Sling Shot Method is also good, but you can also refer to historically slower period averages to filter these arrows a bit more. I leave the decision to you.
Best regards.
Extreme VolumeThis indicator colors volume bars that are significantly higher volume than the vol moving average ( SMA ). Utilizes two multiplier that can be adjusted by user. Defaults are that the indicator colors volume bars yellow if 20% higher than average, and orange if over 50% higher than average.
Reason why i created this indicator is i typically don't care about volume unless it is significantly higher than average. I find extreme volume useful for confirmation of a breakout, etc. This is why the rest of the volume bars are gray, they are still available for reference, but I dont pay much attention until volume is higher than average.
Also, when you load this indicator it will be in its own pane below the chart. To try and figure out how to add it to same pane as the chart was a huge pain in the ass. Once you figure it out it is pretty easy. I'll try to explain below...
Next to the indicator name you have the following options ... Hide, Settings, Show Source Code{}, Delete(X), and More (3 dots)
1) Click on "More" (3 dots)
2) Click on "Move To" then chose "Existing Pane Above"
3) Volume will likely be too large. Volume scale should be on left side, use your mouse to adjust volume smaller
4) Volume will likely be in the middle of your chart, click on it and drag it down.
inwCoin Buy Bottom/Sell Top ==============
Eng
==============
base on this study
This study is using Zig-Zag indicator from script above
and to pug a "FAKE" buy & sell at the bottom or top of each duration
I create this to show you guys that you can easily "make up" a 100% win strategy
and to fool any newbies and lure them to VIP group.
==============
Thai
==============
เขียน indicator ง่ายๆ ง่อยๆ โดยเอามาจาก script ที่คนเขาแจกเอาไว้ให้ฟรีๆ ตามลิงค์ข้างบน
โดยหลักการคือจะเป็น strategy Zig-Zag
แล้วเราก็ใส่คำว่า Buy ไว้ที่ก้น
ใส่คำว่า Sell ไว้ที่ยอด
แล้วก็เอามาโพสหลอกเม่า เพื่อให้เห็นว่า อันนี้คือ strategy เทพ
สามารถเข้าที่ก้น ออกที่ยอดได้ตลอดเวลา
มันช่างสุดยอดไปเล้ยพวก!!
อย่าหลงเชื่อนะครับ พวกนี้มันหลอกต้มทั้งนั้น
บ้าบอคอแตก ถ้าทำแบบนี้ได้ทุกครั้ง
ทำตามเอง all-in ทุกครั้งก็รวยตายห่าแล้วครับ
คิดสิ คิด... ใช้สมองหน่อย อย่าเอาไว้คั่นหู
Bitfinex Long/Short Delta (Longs - Shorts)Bitfinex Long/Short Delta (Longs - Shorts)
Longs = Green
Shorts = Red
Delta = Yellow
BEST Mayer MultipleHello traders
I'm not a HODLer by any means. I know when to sell (or I think I know....) when an asset starts going against me too much.
Even if it's a "long-term" investment.
My mentor used to telling me this: "If a short-term trade becomes a long-term investment, then you're in for a hell of a ride".
I have no clue if Bitcoin/BTC will go back up or not - I don't even care because I'm an intraday trader.
What if BTC was actually a way to accumulate more fiat? Satoshi fooled us
I coded this Mayer Multiple according to the specifications below. By the way, I'm a big fan of Willy Woo. I've been monitoring all his work since I learned about crypto (10 minutes ago.... it's a joke come on)
charts.woobull.com
Scaling
To respect the Mayer's multiple model, I recommend to select the Logarithmic scaling as shown below
imgur.com
What Mayer's model says
Using the reference below, the model says we're in the oversold zone. But, we can be in that zone for months/years...
When a model says an asset could bounce in a 1000-7000 USD range... well... I don't know how I would be able to perform optimally with that insight. This is very subjective and not a recommendation.
Mayer's Multiple model reference
All the BEST
Dave
Heiken Ashi Triangles at the Top and Bottom of ScreenHeiken Ashi Triangles at the Top and Bottom of Screen
The image below shows the comparison to actual Heiken Ashi candles
(Though changing from candles to Heiken Ashi tends to smooth the triangles a little)
Directional Movement Index + Average Directional IndexPersonal DMI and ADX script
ADX color change from positive vs negative momentum
DMI Color fill based on DMI+/- positive momentum
No fill color during lack of momentum
ANN MACD BTC v2.0 This script is the 2nd version of the BTC Deep Learning (ANN) system.
Created with the following indicators and tools:
RSI
MACD
MOM
Bollinger Bands
Guppy Exponential Moving Averages:
(3,5,8,10,12,15,30,35,40,45,50,60)
Note: I was inspired by the CM Guppy Ema script.
Thank you very much to dear wroclai for his great help.
He has been a big help in the deep learning series.
That's why the licenses in this series are for both of us.
I'm sharing these series and thats the first. Stay tuned and regards!
Note : Alerts added.
ANN MACD (BTC)
Logic is correct.
But I prefer to say experimental because the sample set is narrow. (300 columns)
Let's start:
6 inputs : Volume Change , Bollinger Low Band chg. , Bollinger Mid Band chg., Bollinger Up Band chg. , RSI change , MACD histogram change.
1 output : Future bar change (Historical)
Training timeframe : 15 mins (Analysis TF > 4 hours (My opinion))
Learning cycles : 337
Training error: 0.009999
Input columns: 6
Output columns: 1
Excluded columns: 0
Grid
Training example rows: 301
Validating example rows: 0
Querying example rows: 0
Excluded example rows: 0
Duplicated example rows: 0
Network
Input nodes connected: 6
Hidden layer 1 nodes: 8
Hidden layer 2 nodes: 0
Hidden layer 3 nodes: 0
Output nodes: 1
Learning rate : 0.6 Momentum : 0.8
More info :
EDIT : This code is open source under the MIT License. If you have any improvements or corrections to suggest, please send me a pull request via the github repository github.com
50 SMA / 200 EMA / 128EMA Moving Average CrossFound success using 50SMA vs 200EMA.
128 EMA also charted for it's BTC relevance.
Welles Wilder MAHow to trade:
Recommended for longer timeframes at least 4H.
Buy when the green dot appears.
Sell when the yellow dot appears.
Welles Wilder moving average by XOOOOOO
XBT Contango Calculator v1.1
This indicator measures value of basis (or spread) of current Futures contracts compared to spot. The default settings are specifically for Bitmex XBTU19 and XBTZ19 futures contracts. These will need to be updated after expiration. Also, it seems that Tradingview does not keep charts of expired contracts. If anyone knows how to import data from previous expired contracts, please let me know. This historical data could be valuable for evaluating previous XBT futures curves.
Also, VERY important to understand is this indicator only works with Spot Bitcoin charts (XBTUSD, BTCUSD, etc). If you add this to any other asset chart, it would not be useful (unless you changed settings to evaluate a different Futures product).
Contango and Backwardation are important fundamental indicators to keep track of while trading Futures markets. For a better explanation, Ugly Old Goat had done several medium articles on this. Please check out link below for his latest article on the subject...
uglyoldgoat.com
Notes on chart above should explain most of what you need to know on to use this indicator. The zero line is the spot price on the chart, so a positive value means Futures are trading at a premium (or in Contango). You can set a value of extreme Contango which will give an alert as red background (default setting is +$500). Green background will appear when Futures are trading at a discount to spot (Backwardation).
Hope some people get some use out of this. This is my first attempt at coding anything, so any feedback would be greatly appreciated!
BTC Donations: 3CypEdvBcvVHbqzHUt1FDiUG53U7pYWviV
Lancelot ATR Volume MeterThis is an experiment I did a while back ago.
I often think On Balance Volume is a great indicator as trend direction and volume cannot lie.
However, I bumped into a few problems.
It is slow, doesn't show volatility and often time it is prone to chop.
That's why I added ATR to the equation.
Original OBV calculation
src > 0? : +volume : src < 0? -volume
Modified OBV with ATR
src > 0 ? +volume * (volume / atr) : src < 0? -volume * (volume / atr)
I have used 2 ema for this modified OBV.
ema 3
ema 18
By adding ATR to the equation we can smooth out many erratic price movement. (Stop hunting)
Also, when price move slowly but steady, often prepping for a big move, this indicator will move faster.
In short, this indicator prevents you from being stop hunted and also provide great entry for a trending market.
Works well on BTCUSD XBTUSD, as well as other major liquid Pair.
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @Lancelot_Auger for more free Alpha.
Please acknowledge my effort by like and follow.
And lastly,
Save Hong Kong, the revolution of our times.
Lancelot Band - ATR Reversal+Trending IndicatorThis is an indicator I created recently, with the mind of spotting where price might reverse and where the price is trending. You can see this as the primary indicator for your system, however, it is recommended you use this in conjunction with other confirmation indicators.
This script focus solely on ATR or Average True Range.
This indicator is the combination of the baseline from the Ichimoku cloud and the concept of the Keltner channel.
Baseline period = 14
ATR period = 14
ATR Mult = 1.5
For reversal
Long when price crossover Lower band & Stop loss at xLower band
Sell when price crossunder Upper band & Stop loss at xUpper band
For Trend Following
Long when price crossover xUpper band and Stop loss at Upper band
Short when price crossunder xLower band and Stop loss at Upper band
Again, you will need other indicators to help you to succeed in this system. This indicator will not generate the best exit for your position but will generate a good entry signal when you use it with both volume indicator and exit indicator.
Works well on BTCUSD XBTUSD, as well as other major liquid Pair.
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @Lancelot_Auger for more free Alpha.
Please acknowledge my effort by like and follow.
And lastly,
Save Hong Kong, the revolution of our times.
MACD [Gu5]Extremely popular indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence)
Same design of my previous indicators
Show Cross Line for a better visualization
```
Setting recommended for BTC
"Fast Length" = 21
"Slow Length" = 55
"Signal Smoothing" = 14
Other markets try
"Fast Length" = 12
"Slow Length" = 26
"Signal Smoothing" = 9
```
--
El MACD (Convergencia/Divergencia de Medias Móviles) es uno de los mas populares indicadores
Continuando con el mismo estilo de diseño de mis anteriores indicadores
Destaca el cruce de medias para una mejor visualización
Power Law S/RBerger's article on the Power Law Model for Bitcoin is a compelling read and gives the best evidence so far of the diminishing case for retracing below $3000, of a slowing market on a log-log plot, and reducing but continued volatility.
After seeing it acts as support routinely in the last 10 years, I put together a quick little script that plots his midline curve for Bitcoin. You can change the intercept and slope but will need to do your own calculations for other curves.
I hope you all like it.