For completeness here is a naive method with seasonality. The idea behind naive method with seasonality is to take last value from same season and treat it as a forecast. Its counterpart, naive method without seasonality, involves taking last mean value, i.e forecast = sma(x, p) .
This is a continuation of my series on forecasting techniques. The idea behind the Simple Mean method is to somehow extend historical mean to the future. In this case a forecast equals to last value plus average change.
Holt's Forecasting method
Holt (1957) extended simple exponential smoothing to allow the forecasting of data with a trend. This method involves a forecast equation and two smoothing equations (one for the level and one for the trend):
Forecast equation: ŷ = l + h * b
Level equation: l = alpha * y + (1 - alpha) * (l + b)
Trend equation: b = beta * (l - l)...
Hello everyone
Here's the today indicator
That one is a true gift before X-mas. X-mas in July which bundles a lot more than what Santa Claus will offer you in December :)
So without further due, let's dive right in
This indicator will display the following algorithmic SMA :
SMA 20 Daily
SMA 50 Daily
SMA 50 Daily
SMA 100 Daily
SMA 200 Daily
SMA 20...
Introduction
The oscillator version of the stationary extrapolated levels indicator. The methodology behind the extrapolated levels where to minimize the risk of making a decision based only on a forecast, therefore the indicator plotted levels in order to determine possible reversal points, signals where generated when the detrended series crossed over/under...
Sometimes it is more than convenient to differ fast from a genuine high or
a B in an expanded flat (a very impulsive counter within a correction, resulting in an higher high than the genuine.)
I tried to use the typical choppiness of Bs in general to indicate them (orange box in example).
Therefore i used a momentum of close, relative to the bar's heights...
The Alpha-Sutte model is an ongoing project run by Ansari Saleh Ahmar, a lecturer and researcher at Universitas Negeri Makassar in Indonesia, that attempts to make forecasts for time series like how Arima and Holt-Winters models do. Currently Ahmar and his team have conducted research and published papers comparing the efficacy of the Alpha-Sutte and other models,...
Hey guys!
It's me with a new version of the script.
Since a lot of people wanted to use it for scalping, I adjusted it for that.
More buy signals, more sell signals, 90% accuracy (at least ;) )
Remember to use the pivots to set Take Profits and Stop Losses, no software is 100% accurate, otherwise the market would trash it.
SELL SIGNALS
Red "S": Sell...
A night mode of my script.
Feel free to contact me with your suggestion, I'm working on the things people ask me more frequently.
Thanks and good profit!
Same as 4H, but this time 12H.
In my opinion this one is way more accurate, let me know yours.
UPDATES:
I added Short Sell signals, both Red and Blue means "Short Sell", but they use different formulas. The blue one seems pretty solid, meanwhile the red one get more oportunities but might give an earlier entrance aswell.
Remember no software is 100% accurate,...
From a request to simplify the chart, here we have an easy to read map. It's built on calculated price forecast, math, geometry, historical movement, and fundamentals. Enjoy and invest wisely.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. For educational and learning purposes only. BTCUSD -0.30% Bitcoin -0.30% BTC -0.30%
Basic extrapolator for forecast a time-series, all forecasts are mades length periods ahead.
This is not a estimation of the exact price
This should only be used for forecasting direction, dont expect the price to be at the same value of its forecast.
Bias, Mean absolute error, Mean percentage error...etc look useless here, its better to use...
![WCG: EW Correction on choppiness with CB Composite index [yoxxx]](https://s3.tradingview.com/d/DqKbSFhE_mid.png "EW Correction on choppiness with CB Composite index [yoxxx]")
![EURUSD: [RS]Fractal MA V0](https://s3.tradingview.com/k/kWnrnIeQ_mid.png "[RS]Fractal MA V0")
