Kitti-PlayBook Stoch RSI + RSI V6.5 1) Strategy Versions develop from Version 4.0
2) Entry and Exit Conditions
Logic :
Entry Long conditions.
Entry When
Case 1 : Fast > Slow and Yesterday Fast < Slow ( 1st day Bullish ) ==> LongC1
Case 2 : %K crossover Stoch Lower Line and Bullish ==> LongC2
Case 3 : %K crossover %D in The Zone between Stoch Lower Line and Stoch Upper Line and Bullish ==> LongC3
Case 4 : %K crossover Stoch Upper Line and Bullish ==> LongC4
==============================
Exit When
Case 1 : Fast < Slow and Yesterday Fast > Slow ( 1st day Bearish )
Case 2 : %K cross under Stoch Upper Line
====== System 1 : Trend & Multi positions ========================
LS1 = Case 1 or Case 2 or Case3
Exit SYS1 = Exit Case 1
====== System 2 : Micro Trend ===================================
LS2 = Case2 or Case 4
Exit SYS2 = Exit Case2 or Exit case1
3) Can Adjust Number of Hold Positions
M-oscillator
Scalper v1A trend following strategy which uses regression to estimate buying and selling, the regression is done using oscillators and filters. This strategy can be used to scalp if you can wait till the candle is fully painted and you have a good sense of market.
Trade at your own risk no one can guarantee a 100% strike rate!
Coppock Curve StrategyThis strategy makes use of a not widely known technical indicator called "Coppock Curve".
The indicator is derived by taking a weighted moving average of the rate-of-change (ROC) of a market index such as the S&P 500 or a trading equivalent such as the S&P 500 SPDR ETF. For more info: (www.investopedia.com)
This strategy uses $SPY Coppock curve as a proxy to generate buy signals on other ETF's and stocks.
Buy signals are generated when the Coppock Curve crosses above zero, and sell signals are generated when it crosses below.
An optional, trailing stop loss is available, with default settings to 100% so that it does not currently affect the buy and sell signals solely generated by the Coppock Curve. But you may find adding a Trailing stop loss may improve results on certain ETF's/Stocks.
You may also change the symbol for which signals are generated for, default is $SPY.
The published example shows using this strategy on a leverage ETF $TQQQ w/ starting capital of 10k, w/ 10k per trade. Try it on other stocks such as $AAPL, $AMZN $NFLX ect... I have found it to be an effective strategy that has a favorable risk to reward profile.
Any questions, please let me know!
NZDJPY signal [DinhChienFX Corner] Ver 1.0The right screen is never predicting before. Just a the best result at the history for confident to using for Trade.
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Risk: 1%.
1. The Long signal is calculate by the Close of candle crossing up The Keltner Channel Upper.
2. The Short {Sell] signal is calculate by the Close of candle crossing down The Keltner Channel Lower.
3. Reset the Up/Down confirm at Entry.
4. Don''t entry when occurs the Reversal Candle (over 80% the Heigh of Keltner Channel).
a. Not filter the Candel is over 80%.
b. Filter the Candel is over 80% for Not Entry.
5. Stoploss and Take Profit is calculated by Plus or Minus from the Price Entry.
6. Report the result at Backtest:
a. The Long-term result:
b. The Mid-tern result (every year):
- From 1/1/2017 to 1/1/2018:
- From 1/1/2018 to 1/1/2019:
- From 1/1/2019 to 1/1/2020:
c. The Short-term result:
- From 1/1/2020 to 5 Sep 2020
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The right screen is never predicting before. Just a the best result at the history for confident to using for Trade.
Thanks for watching .
EURUSD signal [DinhChienFX Corner] Ver 3.0* Signals are tested successfully for 3.5 years with a steady win rate year on year until now.
Risk: 1%.
* Backtest time: 3.5 years / Premium, varies between currency pairs (Cryto default backtest time is shorter since the market is open both Saturday and Sunday: about 2 years).
The price rule of EURUSD in 20,000 past H1 candles past:
- Upterm (Long): Buy
+ When the price crossing up (Crossover) the Upper line gives 1 point.
- Downterm (Short): Sell
+ When the price crossing down (Crossunder) the Lower line gives 1 point.
- 2 or more points (> = 2), the entry conditions are met
- The entry point for the highest winning rate: when the price adjusts to the Upper / Lower line, the order price is at the closing price of the adjustment candle.
- When the above conditions are met, the Indicator shows a Buy / Sell signal according to the trend.
-----------------------------------
- Maximum risk / reward winning ratio: 1 / 1.05
- Stoploss: Calculated from the entry point + - actual fluctuation with the formula ATR (20) * risk ratio (risk).
- Profit: Calculated from the entry point + - actual fluctuation by the formula ATR (20) * reward ratio (reward).
- Profit: So the product has a stable profit of over 30% / year.
- Should backtest 3 Years (long term), every Year (medium term) and quarterly or 6 months (short term). If each year the success rate is always over 50%, it can be used for real trade.
Weighted Price Oscillator (STRATEGY)Weighted Price Oscillator is an unique indicator that shows the relationship between two custom variables that trigger signals upon specific conditions. When WPO (short for weighted price oscillator) crosses over the signal or zero line, it creates a buy signal and conversely below the signal or zero line, it generates a take profit signal. All of which are provided that the specific conditions are met.
Inside the script's options, the following options are: signal sensitivity, enable signal background color, and take profit percentage. The signal sensitivity allows you to adjust the script's trigger sensitivity, so that the script can fire signals appropriate for a specific timeframe. Enabling signal background color will provide a visual on the oscillator when a buy or take profit signal is being created. And lastly, the take profit percentage option is for configuring the trade size percentage of which you want to take profit with.
PM me for access.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Future Lines of Demarcation This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
An FLD is a line that is plotted on the same scale as the price and is in fact the
price itself displaced to the right (into the future) by (approximately) half the
wavelength of the cycle for which the FLD is plotted. There are three FLD's that can be
plotted for each cycle:
An FLD based on the median price.
An FLD based on the high price.
An FLD based on the low price.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
EURUSD 5min london session strategyHey, today I bring you another strategy that I pull up together.
Its a KISS system ( keep it stupid simple )
We have 2 ma of 5 lenght each, one applied to the high and the other to low. With this we create a channel.
If the candle close above or below the channel we got a signal. Then we can optionally verify with the RSI to increase our chances.
At the same time, this system, only trades during the london session ( can be changed), and it has 2 rules, preferably no more than 5 trades / day, and no more than 2% risk of equity lost .
We also have a TP/SL system made of pips.
Enjoy it.
Simple and efficient 1h strategyThis strategy is made from a crossover of 2 ema : 4 and 8 in this case, together with a RSI of lenght 10 applied to hl2
The strategy is simple : we enter when we have a cross between the 2 ma's and rsi at the same time is in ascending or descending position crossing the middle line of 50.
For exit we have : at the end of a session( we trade only between london and newyork in this case, so we exit newyork), or through a tp/sl pip point system.
Hope you enjoy it.
Ema-Weighted-GainStrategy Inputs: Capital=$10,000, Pyramiding=3, Default Quantity=1
Please note that the strategy buys when the WMA (Blue line) cross under zero and sell above it, your experience is very important in using this indicator. Do not follow the buy/sell signals. Read the plot as I explain in the Uses Section and make your own conclusion on how to use it.
Description,
This Strategy uses multiple Ema’s to calculate Weighted HPR's.
I have calculated the weight numbers based on Fibonacci.
Uses:
NOTE!! (Please Do not take those uses to be 100% Guaranteed. User your experience and judgment to decide your trade).
Zoom out to see all the arrows
White line (MA)
Blue line (WMA)
First
Ride Trends,
1-Downtrend: short
a-MA IS going down
b-Entry: WMA cross above or near the MA (White Arrows).
2-Uptrend:long
a-MA is going up
b-Entry: WMA goes below MA or Near it(Green Arrows).
Second
Trend Reversal
1-buy entry.
WMA at zero, or very close to it, in pullback (Yellow Arrows).
2-short entry
WMA at zero, or very close to it, in a bounce (Orange Arrows).
Third
Divergence as explained in the Red Arrows.
Conclusion,
Red Arrows= Divergence
Green Arrows= Buy entry (The stock is in uptrend)
Yellow Arrows= Buy entry (the stock is in downtrend and could reverse)
White arrows= short entry (the stock is in downtrend)
Orange arrows=short entry (the stock in uptrend and can reverse)
If you are interested, send a private message
VWAP and RSI strategyThis strategy combines VWAP and RSI indicators
BUY RULE
1. EMA50 > EMA 200
2. if current close > vwap session value and close>open
3. check if RSI3 is dipped below 10 for any of last 10 candles (as defined rsi_buy_level)
EXIT RULE
1. RSI3 crossing down 90 level (as defined in rsi_sell_level)
STOP LOSS EXIT
1. default is set to 5%
you need to add EMA 50 , EMA 200 and VWAP (session) indicators to the chart to see how these signals are generated
This strategy is tested on SPY and QQQ index stocks on hourly chart.
Warning
for educational purposes only
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Fisher Transform Indicator This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Market prices do not have a Gaussian probability density function
as many traders think. Their probability curve is not bell-shaped.
But trader can create a nearly Gaussian PDF for prices by normalizing
them or creating a normalized indicator such as the relative strength
index and applying the Fisher transform. Such a transformed output
creates the peak swings as relatively rare events.
Fisher transform formula is: y = 0.5 * ln ((1+x)/(1-x))
The sharp turning points of these peak swings clearly and unambiguously
identify price reversals in a timely manner.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
M4x Rainbow strategyReal Grid Trend Multiplier & SMA
"M4x Rainbow" is a Grid Trend Multiplier bot, who is following an adjustable SMA.
"M4x Rainbow" is not bound on FIFO, each trade get's his own exit.
It is set for Pyramiding=0, which can be changed in the "Strategy" line
Fees are set equal to Binance numbers at 0.1%, about...
!!! Pin to existing scale !!!
Or switch the main Indicator off.
Adjustable Settings:
- Profit % per Step (0-1000%)
- SMA lenght (0-4000)
Alerts: (one Alert is one step)
- longRain
- shortRAIN
The coloring of the lines is:
green = linestate is LONG
blue = linestate is WAIT
yellow = linestate is SHORT
!!! Tested only on 1 Minute Chart !!!
Give it a try and let me know.
...have fun ;-)
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Finite Volume Elements (FVE) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The FVE is a pure volume indicator. Unlike most of the other indicators
(except OBV), price change doesn?t come into the equation for the FVE (price
is not multiplied by volume), but is only used to determine whether money is
flowing in or out of the stock. This is contrary to the current trend in the
design of modern money flow indicators. The author decided against a price-volume
indicator for the following reasons:
- A pure volume indicator has more power to contradict.
- The number of buyers or sellers (which is assessed by volume) will be the same,
regardless of the price fluctuation.
- Price-volume indicators tend to spike excessively at breakouts or breakdowns.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Primus V1 - BybitHey everyone,
The current version its a scalping strategy for Bybit but for those that prefers swing trading algo I can do a different version as well for different exchanges.
This is the first version on my algo Primus, expect updates on the months to come.
BlueFX Strategy GOLD M15We are releasing this separate script file for trading Gold on the M15 time frame using our strategy. This can now run independently from the main file instead of changing parameters and saving as a template - thus making the use of these specific settings even easier for our traders.
You can see the back testing profitability shown below, although you can not use back testing to predict the future, both the volume of trades, net profit, win rate and draw down demonstrate a solid foundation and data to move forward from.
The strategy itself is explained in the 'Blue FX Strategy' but see below too for more info.
Our strategy will help you identify the current trend in the markets and highlight when this is changing. The strategy itself is based upon 4 indicators lining up in total confluence to increase the probability of the trade being a success.
Absolutely no technical analysis is needed to trade this - this is a trading tool and has solid back testing results trading in isolation - although you may also use to support your own trading - the choice is yours.
When a trade is valid - a Buy or Sell label will appear with the Entry price, SL and multiple TP's shown on the chart.
IMPORTANT note, the test results show and confirm that the most profitable exit strategy with these Gold settings is 'FT&SL' this means we enter the trade with a Stop Loss (SL) and simply hold and follow the trend (Follow Trend = FT) until a reverse signal is printed.
In our supporting video (see related ideas) you can see the impact of changing this target between multiple TP's and the net effect on both win rate and overall net profitability.
The Lot size will also be displayed and this is based on the risk parameters you have set personally in the calculation section.
What is a Trading View Script?
A script is like an indicator but better, we can verify the success of our strategy by using Trading Views strategy tester function. As shown below and on the chart - you can see the 'Buy' and 'Close Buy' on the chart, supported by a live trading log showing you the entry, entry price date, volume and closing price.
This is a great function for numerous reasons; firstly, you know you are using a strategy that has provided a positive expectancy in back testing, secondly you can use this as a trading journal to support your trading too. This in itself can help you with your trading psychology - letting winning trades run is a prime example of this. Take confidence in the statistics and performance over time.
Ultimately, we believe we have saved YOU the need to firstly, find an edge and a strategy - and all of the time it takes to BACKTEST a strategy - to then find it may or may not work - and then you start again!
Disclaimer alert; Please remember past performance is exactly that - how our strategy performed over those dates tested, it is not obviously a guarantee of future performance.
Interested in access or more information?
No problem, simply drop us a DM via trading view for access information.
Thank you for reading.
Darren
WaveTrend+ Strategy [SystemAlpha]This is a WaveTrend strategy based on WaveTrend Oscillator. In addition to using the normal crossovers, we use trend filters, trailing stop loss and take profit targets. WT+ Strategy was developed for crypto, forex and stocks for 15 minutes to daily timeframe. The main goal was to catch long term trends and ride them.
In this strategy you have a choice of:
Trend Filters:
- Average Directional Index (ADX) – buy when price is trend is up and sell when trend is down.
- Moving Average (MA) – buy when price close above the defined moving average and sell when price close below moving average
- Parabolic SAR – buy when SAR is above price is above price and sell when SAR is below price.
- All - Use ADX, MA and SAR as filters
For MA Filter , you can use the “TF MA Type” and "TF MA Period" parameter to select Simple or Exponential Moving Average and length.
Stop Loss:
- Average True Range (ATR) – ATR % stop as trailing stop loss.
- Parabolic SAR (SAR) – Parabolic SAR adapted as trailing stop loss.
For ATR , you can use the “ATR Trailing Stop Multiplier” parameter to set an initial offset for trailing stop loss.
Take Profit Target:
- Average True Range (ATR) – ATR % stop as trailing stop loss.
- Standard % – Percent as target profit
For ATR , you can use the “ATR Take Profit Multiplier” parameter to set an initial offset for trailing stop loss.
Additional feature include:
- Regular and Hidden Divergence display and alerts
- Filter Overbought and Oversold
- Use WT Cross for Exit
STRATEGY ONLY:
- Set backtest dates
- Set Trade direction - Long, Short or Both
- Use timed exit - Select method and bars
- Method 1: Exit after specified number of bars.
- Method 2: Exit after specified number of bars, ONLY if position is currently profitable.
- Method 3: Exit after specified number of bars, ONLY if position is currently losing.
TradingView Links:
WT+ Oscillator Companion:
WT+ Alerts:
How to use:
1. Apply the script by browsing through Indicators --> Invite-Only scripts and select the indicator
2. Once loaded, click the gear (settings) button to select/adjust the parameters based on your preference.
3. Wait for the next BUY or SELL signal to enter the trade!
Disclaimer:
The indicator and signals generated do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore is not an offer to buy or sell a security; are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate; and are subject to change without notice.
HFT Divergence Hunter BacktesterDefault Settings are meant to be used in BTC /USDT chart on 5 min time frame on Binance Futures . If you want to use for another asset on another time frame YOU MUST CHANGE THE SETTINGS
This is a divergence finding strategy developed by HFT Research. It is a highly customizable strategy and provides endless opportunities to find profitable trades in the market.
Default Settings are meant to be used in BTC /USDT chart on 5 min time frame on Binance Futures . If you want to use for another asset on another time frame YOU MUST CHANGE THE SETTINGS
This is a divergence finding indicator developed by HFT Research. It is a highly customizable indicator and provides endless opportunities to find profitable trades in the market.
Use Envelope , this is the main decision maker in this strategy. The idea behind is that you choose the length of the moving average and set an offset % to create an upper and lower band. If you click on “display envelope” you will be able to visually see the band you have created. This way, you get to scalp the market as the price is diverging and moving away from the moving average. As the famous saying goes, moving averages act like magnets and prices always visits them back. Using this ideology, we aim to capitilize on the price swings that move away from the chosen moving average by x%.
STARC Bands ;
These are two bands that are applied above and below a simple moving average of an asset’s price. The upper band is created by adding the value of the average true range (ATR) or a multiple of i. The lower band is created by subtracting the value of the ATR from the SMA . The channel can provide traders with ideas on when to buy or sell. During an overall uptrend, buying near the lower band and selling near the top band is favorable. However, from our testing results it does fairly poorly in crypto markets while it does pretty well in traditional markets.
Use RSI ;
One of the most commonly used indicators in the trading world. The idea is simple, buy when its oversold and sell when its overbought. You can use RSI as a secondary confirmation of the dips. It can be turned on and off.
Use MFI
MFI stands for Money Flow Index and it is an oscillator like RSI . However, it does track the price in a different fashion than RSI providing a reliable option. It uses the price and volume data for identifying overbought and oversold signals in an asset.
Use Fisher Transform
Even though, it has a funny name, Fisher is actually a very decent and reliable indicator. It converts the prices into a Gaussian normal distribution channel. Therefore, the indicator detects when the prices have moved to an extreme, based on recent price action.
Use VWAP
VWAP stands for volume weighted average price . It is an extremely useful indicator when trading intra-day. It does reset every trading session which is at 00:00 UTC . Instead of looking at x number of candles and providing an average price, it will take into consideration the volume that’s traded at a certain price and weigh it accordingly. It will NOT give entry signals but act as a filter. If the price is above VWAP will filter out the shorts and other way around for longs.
Use ADX
Average directional index is a powerful indicator when one is assessing the strength of a trend as well as measuring the volatility in the market. Unfortunately, the worst market condition for this strategy is sideways market. ADX becomes a useful tool since it can detect trend. If the volatility is low and there is no real price movement, ADX will pick that up and will not let you get in trades during a sideways market. It will allow you to enter trades only when the market is trending.
Use Super trend Filter
The indicator works well in a trending market but can give false signals when a market is trading in a range.
It uses the ATR ( average true range ) as part of its calculation which takes into account the volatility of the market. The ATR is adjusted using the multiplier setting which determines how sensitive the indicator is.
Use MA Filter
Lookback: It is an option to look back x number of candles to validate the price crossing. If the market is choppy and the price keeps crossing up and down the moving average you have chosen, it will generate a lot of “noisy” signals. This option allows you to confirm the cross by selecting how many candles the price needs to stay above or below the moving average. Setting it 0 will turn it off.
MA Filter Type: There is a selection of moving averages that is available on TradingView currently. You can choose from 14 different moving average types to detect the trend as accurate as possible.
Filter Length: You can select the length of your moving average. Most commonly used length being 50,100 and 200.
Filter Type: This is our propriety smoothing method in order to make the moving averages lag less and influence the way they are calculated slightly. Type 1 being the normal calculation and type 2 being the secret sauce .
Reverse MA Filter: This option allows you to use the moving average in reverse. For example, the strategy will go long when the price is above the moving average. However, if you use the reserve MA Filter, you will go short when the price is above the moving average. This method works best in sideways market where price usually retraces back to the moving average. So, in an anticipation of price reverting back to the moving average, it is a useful piece of option to use during sideway markets.
Use MACD Filter
MACD here will act as a filter rather than an entry signal generator. There are a few different ways to use this MACD filter. You can click on the Use MACD filter and it will use filter out the shorts generated in a bullish territory and longs generated in the bearish territory. It will greatly reduce the number of trades the strategy will trade because MACD is a lagging indicator. By the time MACD turns bullish or bearish , most of the other indicators will have already generated the signals. Therefore, resulting in less trades. You can use MACD filter as MA oscillator meaning that it will only look at the MA lines in MACD to filter out trades. Alternatively, you can use it with the histogram (Signal lines) meaning that it will only look at the histogram whether its below or above the zero line in order to filter out the trades.
TP (%)
Place your desired take profit percentage here. Default is 1.5%
Move SL At Entry x% Profit
This is when the strategy will move your SL to the entry point if the position reaches x% profit. It can also generate a signal which can be automated to adjust the SL on the exchange.
SL (%)
Place your desired stop loss percentage here. Default is 1%
The backtester assumes the following;
- 1000$ capital
- 0.06% commission based on binance
- 1% risk meaning 100% equity on cross leverage
- Backtest results are starting from 2020
If you want to get access to this indicator please DM me or visit our website.
PSAR Strategy (No Overnight Holds)This script utilizes the logic of the TradingView built-in Parabolic SAR strategy, and is adjusted to only give signals during real trading hours (in other words excluding pre-market and after-hours) and to exit all trades before the close of the market.
I personally have found the best results for this strategy to be on a 1 minute time period, and have a great interest in optimizing the profits of this strategy relative to the amount of closed trades and commissions involved. These results are calculated on a 100-share basis, with an estimated $1.00 commission per closed trade. Note that this strategy is extremely active and assumes a long or short 100-share position at any given moment throughout real trading hours.
Definitely take some time to play with the settings to find what works best for a given ticker, as results will vary; using a 100-share basis, I have found profits of over $15,000 with less than 1500 closed trades (on a 1 minute time period, back-tested to one month), and I have also found profits of over $30,000 with nearly 5000 closed trades. There is surely room for a lot of optimization with this strategy.
AltBetaHello Tradingivew!
This is a new script I have been working on for last few weeks, its still in a beta mode version but i want to publish it to get some feedback on it
This script uses a variety of indicators in conjunction with each other
Its unique in a way as it only LONGS and gives the exits rather than shorting too
It uses a percentage of the spread between average of high, low and close with ema crossover
it's uni-directional, picking longs only
Stop losses are wide enough to give the signal room for good results
it works best by backtesting against data to see results before using it on any particular symbol or timeframe
To try it our you may message me directly on tradingview chat
Thanks
A Physicist's Bitcoin Trading Strategy
1. Summary
This strategy and indicator were designed for, and intended to be used to guide trading activity in, crypto markets, particularly Bitcoin. This strategy uses a custom indicator to determine the state of the market (bullish vs bearish) and allocates funds accordingly. This particular variation also uses the custom indicator to determine when the market is significantly oversold and takes advantage of the opportunity (it buys the dip). The specific mathematical formula that is used to calculate the underlying custom indicator allows the trader to get in before, or near the start of, the bull trends, and get out before the bear trends. The strategy's properties dialogue box includes many display settings and parameters for optimization and customization to meet the user's needs and risk tolerance; this is both a tool to gauge the market, as well as a trading strategy to beat the market. Guidelines for parameter settings are provided. A sample dataset of backtest results using randomized parameters, both within the guidelines and outside the guidelines, is available upon request; notably, all trials outperformed the intended market (Bitcoin) during the 9-year backtest period.
2. The Indicator and Strategy
2.1. The Indicator
A mathematical formula is used to determine the state of the market according to three different "frequencies", which, for lack of better terminology, are called fast, moderate, and slow indicators. There are two parameters for each of the three indicators, one called response time and the other is a simple look-back period. Finally, four exponential moving averages are used to smooth each indicator. In total, there are 18 different levels of bullishness/bearishness. The purpose of using three indicators, rather than one, is to capture the full character of the market, from a macro/global scope down to a micro/local scope. I.e. the full indicator looks at the forest, the trees, and the branches, simultaneously.
2.2. The Strategy
The trend-trading strategy is very simple; there are only four types of orders: 1) The entire position (e.g. all bitcoins held) is sold (if it hasn't already been totally sold) when the indicator becomes maximally bearish, 2) When the movement of the indicator is in the bullish direction, the strategy dollar-cost-average (DCA) buys at an exponentially decreasing rate, i.e. it buys more in the early stages of the transition from bear->bull. 3) When the indicator is maximally bullish, it goes "all-in" † (if it hasn't already gone all-in), i.e. it converts all available cash into the underlying security/token. And, 4) when the movement of the indicator is in the bearish direction, the strategy DCA sells (again, exponentially decreasing) to get out quickly. No leverage is used in this strategy. The strategy never takes a short position.
A second "buy-the-dip" strategy is also used, and it is the synergy of these two strategies, together, that is responsible for most of the outperformance in the backtests (this strategy handily beats the non-dip-buying variation in backtests). To do this, the custom indicator is used to determine when the market is significantly oversold on a short-term basis, and the strategy responds by DCA buying. However, unlike the DCA buying during bull/bear transitions, the buy-the-dip DCA buying increases with time. Specifically, within each candle that is short-term oversold, the strategy converts 10% x # of candles since becoming oversold (up to a max of 6 candles) of available cash into the underlying security/token. I.e. the first buy is 10% of available cash and occurs in the first oversold candle, the second buy is 20% of available cash and occurs in the second oversold candle, etc. up to six consecutive oversold candles. Lastly, to ensure no conflicting orders and no leverage (buying more than what is affordable with the available cash in the fund), buy-the-dip orders take precedence over the trend-trading orders enumerated in the previous paragraph.
† Technically the strategy goes 99.5% in when it goes "all-in". This is to ensure no leverage is used given that there may be a commission of 0.5%.
3. Backtest Results
Backtest results demonstrate significant outperformance over buy-and-hold. The default parameters of the strategy/indicator have been set by the author to achieve maximum (or, close to maximum) outperformance on backtests executed on the BTCUSD (Bitcoin) chart. However, significant outperformance over buy-and-hold is still easily achievable using non-default parameters. Basically, as long as the parameters are set to adequately capture the full character of the market, significant outperformance on backtests is achievable and is quite easy. In fact, after some experimentation, it seems as if underperformance hardly achievable and requires deliberately setting the parameters illogically (e.g. setting one parameter of the slow indicator faster than the fast indicator). In the interest of providing a quality product to the user, suggestions and guidelines for parameter settings are provided in section (6). Finally, some metrics of the strategy's outperformance on the BTCUSD chart are listed below, both for the default (optimal) parameters as well as for a random sample of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines set forth in section (6).
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
Total cumulative outperformance (total return of strategy minus total return of buy-n-hold): 13,000,000%.
Rolling 1-year outperformance: mean 318%, median 84%, 1st quartile 55%, 3rd quartile, 430%.
Rolling 1-month outperformance: mean 2.8% (annualized, 39%), median -2.1%, 1st quartile -7.7%, 3rd quartile 13.2%, 10th percentile -13.9%, 90th percentile 24.5%.
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, during specific periods,
Cumulative outperformance during the past year (August 2019-August 2020): 37%.
12/17/2016 - 12/17/2017 (2017 bull market) absolute performance of 2563% vs buy-n-hold absolute performance of 2385%
11/29/2012 - 11/29/2013 (2013 bull market) absolute performance of 14033% vs buy-n-hold absolute performance of 9247%
Using a random sample (n=20) of combinations of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines outlined in section (6), relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
Average total cumulative outperformance, from August 2011 to August 2020: 2,000,000%.
Median total cumulative outperformance, from August 2011 to August 2020: 1,000,000%.
4. Limitations
This strategy is basically a DCA-swing trading strategy, and as such it is intended to be used on the 6-hr chart. Similar performance is expected on daily chart, 12-hr chart, and 4-hr chart, but performance is likely to be limited when used on charts of shorter time-frames. However, due to the flexibility afforded by the large quantity of parameters, as well as the tools included, it may be possible to tweak the indicator settings to get some outperformance on smaller time-frames. Admittedly, the author did not spend much time investigating this.
As is apparent in the backtests, this strategy has very limited absolute performance during large bear markets, such as Bitcoin's 2018 bear market. As described, it does outperform the underlying security by a large amount in backtests, but a large absolute return is unlikely during large and prolonged declines (unless, of course, your unit of account is the underlying token, in which case an outperformance of the underlying is, by definition, an absolute positive return).
This strategy is likely to underperform if used to trade ETFs of broad equity markets. This strategy may produce a small amount of outperformance when used to trade precious metals ETFs, given that the parameters are set optimally by the user.
5. Use
The default parameters have already been set for highly optimal backtest results on the chart of BTCUSD (Bitcoin / US Dollar BITSTAMP), (although, a different combination of parameter settings may yet produce better results). Still, there is a great number of combinations that can be explored, so the user is free to tweak the settings to meet his/her/their needs. Some display options are provided to give the user a visual aid while tweaking the parameters. These include a blue/red background display of the custom indicator, a calibration system, and options to display information about the backtest results. The background pattern represents the various levels of bullishness/bearishness as semi-transparent layers of blue and red, with blue corresponding with bullish and red corresponding with bearish.
The parameters that affect the indicator are the response times, the periods, and some EMA lengths. The parameters that affect the quantity of contracts (tokens/shares/bitcoins/etc) to be bought/sold are the transitionary buy/sell rates. There are also two sets of date parameters.
The response time and period parameters are direct inputs into the underlying math formula and are used to create the base-level indicators (fast, moderate, and slow). The response times control the speed of each of the three indicators (shorter is fast, longer is slower) and the period controls how much historical data is used in computation. Information about how these should be set are included in section (6). Another set of parameters control EMA look-back periods that serve to smooth the base-level indicators. Increasing these EMA lengths makes the overall indicator less sensitive to short-term price action, while reducing them does the opposite. The effect of these parameters are obvious when the background blue/red visualization is displayed. Another EMA length is an EMA for the entire indicator. Increasing this parameter reduces the responsiveness of the trading strategy (buy/sell orders) to quick/small changes of the overall level of the indicator, so as to avoid unnecessary buying and selling in times of relatively small and balanced price perturbations. Note, changing this parameter does not have an effect on the overall indicator itself, and thus will not affect the blue/red background representation.
The transitionary buy/sell rates control the portion of the available asset to be converted to the other. E.g. if the buy rate is set to 90%, then 90% of the available cash will be used to buy contracts/tokens/shares/bitcoins during transitions bullish transitions, e.g. if the available cash at the start of the bullish transition is $10,000 and the parameter is set to 90%, then $9,000 will be used to buy in the first candle during which the transition is bullish, then $900 will be used to buy in the second candle, then $90 in the third candle, etc.
There are two dates that can be set. The first is the date at which the strategy goes all in. This is included because the buy-and-hold strategy is the benchmark against which this strategy is compared, so setting this date to some time before the strategy starts to make trades will show, very clearly, the outperformance of the strategy, especially when the initial capital parameter in the Properties tab is equal to the price of one unit of the underlying security on the date that is set, e.g. all-in on Bitcoin on 8/20/2011 and set initial capital to the BTCUSD price on that date, which was $11.70. The second date is a date to control when the strategy can begin to place trades.
Finally (actually, firstly in the Inputs dialogue box), a set of checkbox inputs controls whether or not the backtest is on or off, and what is displayed. The display options are the blue/red (bull/bear) background layers †, a set of calibrators, a plot of the total strategy equity, a plot of the cash position of the strategy, a plot of the size of the position of the strategy in contracts/shares/units (labeled as BTC position), and a plot of the rolling 1-year performances of buy-and-hold and the strategy.
About the calibrators: The calibration system allows the user to quickly assess and calibrate how well the indicator... indicates. Quite simply, the system has two parts: one plot that is the cumulative sum of the product of the indicator level and the change in the underlying price, i.e. sum of ‡, over all candles. The second part is a similar plot that is reduced according to the quickness with which the indicator changes, i.e. sum of . Maximizing the first plot at the expense of the second will cause the indicator to match the price action very well but therefore it will change very rapidly, from bullish to bearish, which is visualized by a background pattern that changes frequently from blue to red to blue. Ignoring the first plot and maximizing the second will also cause the indicator to more closely match the price action, but the transitions will be slower and less frequent, and will therefore focus on identifying the major trends of the market.
† The blue/red background has many layers and will make the chart lag as the user interacts with it.
‡ Bearish states are coded as negative quantities, so a bearish state x negative price action = positive number, and bullish state x positive price action = positive number.
6. Suggestions and Guidelines
As described in section (2.1), the indicator used in this strategy was designed to determine the state of the market--whether it is bullish or bearish--as well as the change in the state of the market--whether it is increasingly bullish or increasingly bearish. As such, the following suggestions are provided based on the principles of the indicator's design,
1. Response Time 1 should be less than (<) Response Time 2 which should be < Response Time 3
2. Fast Period < Moderate Period < Slow Period
3. In terms of the period of a full market cycle (e.g. ~ 4 years for BTC, ~ 5.5 years for equities, etc.), response times 1, 2, and 3 should be about 0.3% to 1%, 3% to 20%, and 20% to 50% of a full market cycle period, respectively. However, this is a loose guideline.
4. In terms of the period of a full market cycle, periods 1, 2, and 3 should all be about 25% to 75% of a full cycle period. Again, this is a loose guideline.
4. EMA 1 Length < EMA 2 Length < EMA 3 Length < EMA 4 Length
5. EMA Lengths 1, 2, 3, and 4 should be limited to about 1/4th the length of a full market cycle. Note, EMA lengths are measured in bars (candles), not in days. 1/4th of 1000 days is 250 days which is 250 x 4 = 1000 6-hr candles.
The following guidelines are provided based on results of over 100 backtests on the BTCUSD chart using randomized parameters †,
1. 9 days < Response Time 1 < 14 days
2. 5 days < EMA 1 Length < 100 days
3. 600 days < EMA 4 length < 1000 days
4. The ratio of the EMA range (EMA 4 len - EMA 1 len) to the sum of EMA lengths (EMA 1 len + EMA 2 len + ...) be greater than 0.4
5. The ratio of the sum of EMA 1 and EMA 2 lengths to the sum of EMA 3 and EMA 4 lengths be less than 0.3.
A suggestion from the author: Given that backtests show a high degree of outperformance using the guidelines enumerated above, a good trading strategy may be to not rely on any one particular combination of parameters. Rather, a random set of combinations of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines above could be used to create multiple instances of the strategy in a TradingView chart, each of which varies by a small amount due to their unique parameter settings. The proportion of the entire set of strategy instances that agree about the current state of the market could indicate to the trader the level of confidence of the indicator, in aggregate.
† A sample dataset of backtest results using randomized parameters is available upon request; notably, all trials outperformed the intended market (Bitcoin).
7. General Remarks About the Indicator
Other than some exponential moving averages, no traditional technical indicators or technical analysis tools are employed in this strategy. No MACD, no RSI, no CMF, no Bollinger bands, parabolic SARs, Ichimoku clouds, hoosawatsits, XYZs, ABCs, whatarethese. No tea leaves can be found in this strategy, only mathematics. It is in the nature of the underlying math formula, from which the indicator is produced, to quickly identify trend changes.
8. Remarks About Expectations of Future Results and About Backtesting
8.1. In General
As it's been stated in many prospectuses and marketing literature, "past performance is no guarantee of future results." Backtest results are retrospective, and hindsight is 20/20. Therefore, no guarantee can, nor should, be expressed by me or anybody else who is selling a financial product (unless you have a money printer, like the Federal Reserve does).
8.2. Regarding This Strategy
No guarantee of future results using this strategy is expressed by the author, not now nor at any time in the future.
With that written, the author is free to express his own expectations and opinions based on his intimate knowledge of how the indicator works, and the author will take that liberty by writing the following: As described in section (7), this trading strategy does not include any traditional technical indicators or TA tools (other than smoothing EMAs). Instead, this strategy is based on a principle that does not change, it employs a complex indicator that is based on a math formula that does not change, and it places trades based on five simple rules that do not change. And, as described in section (2.1), the indicator is designed to capture the full character of the market, from a macro/global scope down to a micro/local scope. Additionally, as described in section (3), outperformance of the market for which this strategy was intended during backtesting does not depend on luckily setting the parameters "just right." In fact, all random combinations of parameter settings that followed the guidelines outperformed the intended market in backtests. Additionally, no parameters are included within the underlying math formula from which the indicator is produced; it is not as if the formula contains a "5" and future outperformance would depend on that "5" being a "6" instead. And, again as described, it is in the nature of the formula to quickly identify trend changes. Therefore, it is the opinion of the author that the outperformance of this strategy in backtesting is directly attributable to the fundamental nature of the math formula from which the indicator is produced. As such, it is also the opinion of the author that continued outperformance by using this strategy, applied to the crypto (Bitcoin) market, is likely, given that the parameter settings are set reasonably and in accordance with the guidelines. The author does not, however, expect future outperformance of this strategy to match or exceed the outperformance observed in backtests using the default parameters, i.e. it probably won't outperform by anything close to 13,000,000% during the next 9 years.
Additionally, based on the rolling 1-month outperformance data listed in section (3), expectations of short-term outperformance should be kept low; the median 1-month outperformance was -2%, so it's basically a 50/50 chance that any significant outperformance is seen in any given month. The true strength of this strategy is to be out of the market during large, sharp declines and capitalizing on the opportunities presented at the bottom of those declines by buying the dip. Given that such price action does not happen every month, outperformance in the initial months of use is approximately as likely as underperformance.
9. Access
Those who are interested in using this strategy may send a personal message to inquire about how to gain access. Those who are interested in acquiring the sample dataset of backtest results may send a personal message to request a copy of the data.
BV's MACD SIGNAL TESTERHello ladies and gentlemen,
Today, as you may have seen in the title, I have coded a strategy to determine once and for all if MACD could make you money in 2020.
So, at the end of this video, you will know which MACD strategy will bring you the most money.
Spoiler alert: we've hit the 90% WinRAte mark on the Euro New Zealand Dollar chart.
I've seen a lot of videos of people testing different MACD signals, some up to 100 times.
But In my opinion, all traders must rely on statistics to put all the odds on their side and good statistics require a lot more data.
The algorithm I'm showing you tests each signal one by one over a 3 year period and on 28 different graphs.
That way we are sure that we have encountered all possible market behavior.
From phases of congestion to major trends or even the effects of COVID-19
I use the ATR to determine my Stop Loss and Take Profits. The Stop Loss is placed at 1.5 times the ATR, the Take Profit is placed at 1 time the ATR.
If my Take Profit is hit, I take 50% of the profits and let the position run by moving my Stop Loss to Zero.
This way, the position can no longer be a losing position.
If you are not familiar with this practice, I invite you to study the "Scaling out" video from the NoNonsenseForex channel.
BV's Trading Journal.
Pivot Sniper (Double RSI, Safe Zones, Divergence, Trend Sensor)Pivot Sniper establishes safe zones to trade at the top half or bottom half of the market using 1000 bar highest high and lowest low respectively. It makes entry decisions scanning for a special RSI pattern and then confirms using Divergence and whether it is above or below a moving average. It also has a trend sensor that avoid betting against long running trends.
Use on a 5 minute chart only. It needs this resolution to make it's decisions. It is designed for forex only.
If you would like access to try this script out post below or message me.
Thanks, Doug
