lib_no_delayLibrary "lib_no_delay"
This library contains modifications to standard functions that return na before reaching the bar of their 'length' parameter.
That is because they do not compromise speed at current time for correct results in the past. This is good for live trading in short timeframes but killing applications on Monthly / Weekly timeframes if instruments, like in crypto, do not have extensive history (why would you even trade the monthly on a meme coin ... not my decision).
Also, some functions rely on source (value at previous bar), which is not available on bar 1 and therefore cascading to a na value up to the last bar ... which in turn leads to a non displaying indicator and waste of time debugging this)
Anyway ... there you go, let me know if I should add more functions.
sma(source, length)
Parameters:
source (float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars (length).
Returns: Simple moving average of source for length bars back.
ema(source, length)
Parameters:
source (float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The exponentially weighted moving average of the source.
rma(source, length)
Parameters:
source (float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars (length).
Returns: Exponential moving average of source with alpha = 1 / length.
atr(length)
Function atr (average true range) returns the RMA of true range. True range is max(high - low, abs(high - close ), abs(low - close )). This adapted version extends ta.atr to start without delay at first bar and deliver usable data instead of na by averaging ta.tr(true) via manual SMA.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : Number of bars back (length).
Returns: Average true range.
rsi(source, length)
Relative strength index. It is calculated using the ta.rma() of upward and downward changes of source over the last length bars. This adapted version extends ta.rsi to start without delay at first bar and deliver usable data instead of na.
Parameters:
source (float) : Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : Number of bars back (length).
Returns: Relative Strength Index.
Moving_average
Adjustable Percentage Range Moving AverageAdjustable Percentage Range Moving Average (APRMA)
The Adjustable Percentage Range Moving Average (APRMA) is a technical analysis tool designed for traders and market analysts who seek a dynamic approach to understanding market volatility and trend identification. Unlike traditional moving averages, the APRMA incorporates user-adjustable percentage bands around a central moving average line, offering a customizable view of price action relative to its recent history.
Key Features:
Central Moving Average: At its core, APRMA calculates a moving average (type of your choice) of the price over a specified number of periods, serving as the baseline for the indicator.
Percentage Bands: Surrounding the moving average are four bands, two above and two below, set at user-defined percentages away from the central line. These bands expand and contract based on the percentage input, not on standard deviation like Bollinger Bands, which allows for a consistent visual interpretation of how far the price has moved from its average.
Customizability: Users can adjust:
The length of the moving average period to suit short-term, medium-term, or long-term analysis.
The percentage offset for the bands, enabling traders to set the sensitivity of the indicator according to the asset's volatility or their trading strategy.
Visual Interpretation:
When the price moves towards or beyond the upper band, it might indicate that the asset is potentially overbought or that a strong upward trend is in place.
Conversely, price action near or below the lower band could suggest an oversold condition or a strong downward trend.
The space between the bands can be used to gauge volatility; narrower bands suggest lower current volatility relative to the average, while wider bands indicate higher volatility.
Usage in Trading:
Trend Confirmation: A price staying above the moving average and pushing the upper band might confirm an uptrend, while staying below and testing the lower band could confirm a downtrend.
Reversion Strategies: Traders might look for price to revert to the mean (moving average) when it touches or crosses the bands, setting up potential entry or exit points.
Breakout Signals: A price moving decisively through a band after a period of consolidation within the bands might signal a breakout.
The APRMA provides a clear, adaptable framework for traders to visualize where the price stands in relation to its recent average, offering insights into potential overbought/oversold conditions, trend strength, and volatility, all tailored by the trader's strategic preferences.
Gaussian Kernel Smoothing EMAGaussian Kernel Smoothing EMA
The Gaussian Kernel Smoothing EMA integrates the exponential moving average with kernel smoothing techniques to refine the trend tool. Kernel smoothing is a non-parametric technique used to estimate a smooth curve from a set of data points. It is particularly useful in reducing noise and capturing the underlying structure of data. The smoothed value at each point is calculated as a weighted average of neighboring points, with the weights determined by a kernel function.
The Gaussian kernel is a popular choice in kernel smoothing due to its properties of being smooth, symmetric, and having infinite support. This function gives higher weights to data points closer to the target point and lower weights to those further away, resulting in a smooth and continuous estimate. Since price isn't normally distributed a logarithmic transformation is performed to remove most of its skewness to be able to fit the Gaussian kernel.
This indicator also has a bandwidth, which in kernel smoothing controls the width of the window over which the smoothing is performed. It determines how much influence nearby data points have on the smoothed value. In this indicator, the bandwidth is dynamically adjusted based on the standard deviation of the log-transformed prices so that the smoothing adapts to the underlying variability and potential volatility.
Bandwidth Factor: The bandwidth factor in this indicator is used to adjust the degree of the smoothing applied to the MA. In kernel smoothing, Bandwidth controls the width of the window over which the smoothing is applied. It determines how many data points around a central point are considered when calculating a smooth value. A smaller bandwidth results in less smoothing, while a larger bandwidth smooths out more noise, leading to a broader, more general trend.
Sticky Moving AverageThe Sticky Moving Average is a custom indicator designed to provide a unique smoothing effect by combining different moving averages derived from a single base period. This indicator creates a single line on the chart, representing the average of the following three moving averages:
1. X-period Simple Moving Average (SMA): A traditional moving average that smooths the price data over the full period.
2. X/2-period Simple Moving Average (SMA): A faster-moving average that smooths the price data over half of the base period.
3. X/4-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA): An exponential moving average that gives more weight to recent prices, calculated over one-fourth of the base period.
The result is a moving average that "sticks" to price action by considering both short-term and long-term trends, offering a balanced view of market momentum.
This indicator is ideal for traders looking to gain a nuanced understanding of price movements by incorporating multiple smoothing periods into a single, easy-to-use line. Adjust the `X` value to suit your trading strategy and enjoy the clarity this composite moving average can bring to your charts.
Market Breadth - AsymmetrikMarket Breadth - Asymmetrik User Manual
Overview
The Market Breadth - Asymmetrik is a script designed to provide insights into the overall market condition by plotting three key indicators based on stocks within the S&P 500 index. It helps traders assess market momentum and strength through visual cues and is especially useful for understanding the proportion of stocks trading above their respective moving averages.
Features
1. Market Breadth Indicators:
- Breadth 20D (green line): Represents the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that are above their 20-day moving average.
- Breadth 50D (yellow line): Represents the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that are above their 50-day moving average.
- Breadth 100D (red line): Represents the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that are above their 100-day moving average.
2. Horizontal Lines for Context:
- Green line at 10%
- Lighter green line at 20%
- Grey line at 50%
- Light red line at 80%
- Dark red line at 90%
3. Background Color Alerts:
- Green background when all three indicators are under 20%, indicating a potential oversold market condition.
- Red background when all three indicators are over 80%, indicating a potential overbought market condition.
Interpreting the Indicator
- Market Breadth Lines: Observe the plotted lines to assess the percentage of stocks above their moving averages.
- Horizontal Lines: Use the horizontal lines to quickly identify important threshold levels.
- Background Colors: Pay attention to background colors for quick insights:
- Green: All indicators suggest a potentially oversold market condition (below 20).
- Red: All indicators suggest a potentially overbought market condition (above 80).
Troubleshooting
- If the indicator does not appear as expected, please contact me.
- This indicator works only on daily and weekly timeframes.
Conclusion
This Market Breadth Indicator offers a visual representation of market momentum and strength through three key indicators, helping you identify potential buying and selling zones.
SOL & BTC EMA with BTC/SOL Price Difference % and BTC Dom EMAThis script is designed to provide traders with a comprehensive analysis of Solana (SOL) and Bitcoin (BTC) by incorporating Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and price difference percentages. It also includes the BTC Dominance EMA to offer insights into the overall market dominance of Bitcoin.
Features:
SOL EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for Solana (SOL) based on a customizable period length.
BTC EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for Bitcoin (BTC) based on a customizable period length.
BTC Dominance EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for BTC Dominance, which helps in understanding Bitcoin's market share relative to other cryptocurrencies.
BTC/SOL Price Difference %: Calculates and plots the percentage difference between BTC and SOL prices, adjusted for their respective EMAs. This helps in identifying relative strength or weakness between the two assets.
Background Highlight: Colors the background to visually indicate whether the BTC/SOL price difference percentage is positive (green) or negative (red), aiding in quick decision-making.
Inputs:
SOL Ticker: Symbol for Solana (default: BINANCE
).
BTC Ticker: Symbol for Bitcoin (default: BINANCE
).
BTC Dominance Ticker: Symbol for Bitcoin Dominance (default: CRYPTOCAP
.D).
EMA Length: The length of the EMA (default: 20 periods).
Usage:
This script is intended for traders looking to analyze the relationship between SOL and BTC, using EMAs to smooth out price data and highlight trends. The BTC/SOL price difference percentage can help traders identify potential trading opportunities based on the relative movements of SOL and BTC.
Note: Leverage trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you have a good understanding of the market conditions and employ proper risk management techniques.
Moving Average Z-Score Suite [BackQuant]Moving Average Z-Score Suite
1. What is this indicator
The Moving Average Z-Score Suite is a versatile indicator designed to help traders identify and capitalize on market trends by utilizing a variety of moving averages. This indicator transforms selected moving averages into a Z-Score oscillator, providing clear signals for potential buy and sell opportunities. The indicator includes options to choose from eleven different moving average types, each offering unique benefits and characteristics. It also provides additional features such as standard deviation levels, extreme levels, and divergence detection, enhancing its utility in various market conditions.
2. What is a Z-Score
A Z-Score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. It is measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. For instance, a Z-Score of 1.0 means the value is one standard deviation above the mean, while a Z-Score of -1.0 indicates it is one standard deviation below the mean. In the context of financial markets, Z-Scores can be used to identify overbought or oversold conditions by determining how far a particular value (such as a moving average) deviates from its historical mean.
3. What moving averages can be used
The Moving Average Z-Score Suite allows users to select from the following eleven moving averages:
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Hull Moving Average (HMA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA)
Running Moving Average (RMA)
Linear Regression Curve (LINREG) (This script can be found standalone )
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA)
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA)
Kalman Hull Moving Average (KHMA)
T3 Moving Average
Each of these moving averages has distinct properties and reacts differently to price changes, allowing traders to select the one that best fits their trading style and market conditions.
4. Why Turning a Moving Average into a Z-Score is Innovative and Its Benefits
Transforming a moving average into a Z-Score is an innovative approach because it normalizes the moving average values, making them more comparable across different periods and instruments. This normalization process helps in identifying extreme price movements and mean-reversion opportunities more effectively. By converting the moving average into a Z-Score, traders can better gauge the relative strength or weakness of a trend and detect potential reversals. This method enhances the traditional moving average analysis by adding a statistical perspective, providing clearer and more objective trading signals.
5. How It Can Be Used in the Context of a Trading System
In a trading system, it can be used to generate buy and sell signals based on the Z-Score values. When the Z-Score crosses above zero, it indicates a potential buying opportunity, suggesting that the price is above its mean and possibly trending upward. Conversely, a Z-Score crossing below zero signals a potential selling opportunity, indicating that the price is below its mean and might be trending downward. Additionally, the indicator's ability to show standard deviation levels and extreme levels helps traders set profit targets and stop-loss levels, improving risk management and trade planning.
6. How It Can Be Used for Trend Following
For trend-following strategies, it can be particularly useful. The Z-Score oscillator helps traders identify the strength and direction of a trend. By monitoring the Z-Score and its rate of change, traders can confirm the persistence of a trend and make informed decisions to enter or exit trades. The indicator's divergence detection feature further enhances trend-following by identifying potential reversals before they occur, allowing traders to capitalize on trend shifts. By providing a clear and quantifiable measure of trend strength, this indicator supports disciplined and systematic trend-following strategies.
No backtests for this indicator due to the many options and ways it can be used,
Enjoy
Stochastic Biquad Band Pass FilterThis indicator combines the power of a biquad band pass filter with the popular stochastic oscillator to provide a unique tool for analyzing price movements.
The Filter Length parameter determines the center frequency of the biquad band pass filter, affecting which frequency band is isolated. Adjusting this parameter allows you to focus on different parts of the price movement spectrum.
The Bandwidth (BW) controls the width of the frequency band in octaves. It represents the bandwidth between -3 dB frequencies for the band pass filter. A narrower bandwidth results in a more focused filtering effect, isolating a tighter range of frequencies.
The %K Length parameter sets the period for the stochastic calculation, determining the range over which the stochastic values are calculated.
The %K Smoothing parameter applies a simple moving average to the %K values to smooth out the oscillator line.
The %D Length parameter sets the period for the %D line, which is a simple moving average of the %K line, providing a signal line for the oscillator.
Key Features of the Stochastic Biquad Band Pass Filter
Biquad filters are known for their smooth response and minimal phase distortion, making them ideal for technical analysis. In this implementation, the biquad filter is configured as a band pass filter, which allows frequencies within a specified band to pass while attenuating frequencies outside this band. This is particularly useful in trading to isolate specific price movements, making it easier to detect patterns and trends within a targeted frequency range.
The stochastic oscillator is a popular momentum indicator that shows the location of the close relative to the high-low range over a set number of periods. Combining it with a biquad band pass filter enhances its effectiveness by focusing on specific frequency bands of price movements.
By incorporating this stochastic biquad band pass filter into your trading toolkit, you can enhance your chart analysis with clearer insights into specific frequency bands of price movements, leading to more informed trading decisions.
Biquad High Pass FilterThis indicator utilizes a biquad high pass filter to filter out low-frequency components from price data, helping traders focus on high-frequency movements and detect rapid changes in trends.
The Length parameter determines the cutoff frequency of the filter, affecting how quickly the filter responds to changes in price. A shorter length allows the filter to react more quickly to high-frequency movements.
The Q Factor controls the sharpness of the filter. A higher Q value results in a more precise filtering effect by narrowing the frequency band. However, be cautious when setting the Q factor too high, as it can induce resonance, amplifying certain frequencies and potentially making the filter less effective by introducing unwanted noise.
Key Features of Biquad Filters
Biquad filters are a type of digital filter that provides a combination of low-pass, high-pass, band-pass, and notch filtering capabilities. In this implementation, the biquad filter is configured as a high pass filter, which allows high-frequency signals to pass while attenuating lower-frequency components. This is particularly useful in trading to highlight rapid price movements, making it easier to spot short-term trends and patterns.
Biquad filters are known for their smooth response and minimal phase distortion, making them ideal for technical analysis. The customizable length and Q factor allow for flexible adaptation to different trading strategies and market conditions. Designed for real-time charting, the biquad filter operates efficiently without significant lag, ensuring timely analysis.
By incorporating this biquad high pass filter into your trading toolkit, you can enhance your chart analysis with clearer insights into rapid price movements, leading to more informed trading decisions.
Biquad Low Pass FilterThis indicator utilizes a biquad low pass filter to smooth out price data, helping traders identify trends and reduce noise in their analysis.
The Length parameter acts as the length of the moving average, determining the smoothness and responsiveness of the filter. Adjusting this parameter changes how quickly the filter reacts to price changes.
The Q Factor controls the sharpness of the filter. A higher Q value results in a narrower frequency band, enhancing the precision of the filter. However, be cautious when setting the Q factor too high, as it can induce resonance, amplifying certain frequencies and potentially making the filter less effective by introducing noise.
Key Features of Biquad Filters
Biquad filters are a type of digital filter that provides a combination of low-pass, high-pass, band-pass, and notch filtering capabilities. In this implementation, the biquad filter is configured as a low pass filter, which allows low-frequency signals to pass while attenuating higher-frequency noise. This is particularly useful in trading to smooth out price data, making it easier to spot underlying trends and patterns.
Biquad filters are known for their smooth response and minimal phase distortion, making them ideal for technical analysis. The customizable length and Q factor allow for flexible adaptation to different trading strategies and market conditions. Designed for real-time charting, the biquad filter operates efficiently without significant lag, ensuring timely analysis.
By incorporating this biquad low pass filter into your trading toolkit, you can enhance your chart analysis with clearer insights into price movements, leading to more informed trading decisions.
GMMA Toolkit [QuantVue]The GMMA Toolkit is designed to leverage the principles of the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA). This indicator is equipped with multiple features to help traders identify trends, reversals, and periods of market compression.
The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) is a technical analysis tool developed by Australian trader and author Daryl Guppy in the late 1990s.
It utilizes two sets of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to capture both short-term and long-term market trends. The short-term EMAs represent the activity of traders, while the long-term EMAs reflect the behavior of investors.
By analyzing the interaction between these two groups of EMAs, traders can identify the strength and direction of trends, as well as potential reversals.
Due to the nature of GMMA, charts can become cluttered with numerous lines, making analysis challenging.
However, this indicator simplifies visualization by using clouds to represent the short-term and long-term EMA groups, determined by filling the area between the maximum and minimum EMAs in each group.
The GMMA Toolkit goes a step further and includes an oscillator that measures the difference between the average short-term and long-term EMAs, providing a clear visual representation of trend strength and direction.
The farther the oscillator is from the 0 level, the stronger the trend. It is plotted on a separate panel with values above zero indicating bullish conditions and values below zero indicating bearish conditions.
The inclusion of the oscillator in the GMMA Toolkit allows traders to identify earlier buy and sell signals based on the GMMA oscillator crossing the zero line compared to traditional crossover methods.
Lastly, the GMMA Toolkit features compression dots that indicate periods of market consolidation.
By measuring the spread between the maximum and minimum EMAs within both short-term and long-term groups, the indicator identifies when these spreads are significantly narrower than average by comparing the current spread to the average spread over a lookback period.
This visual cue helps traders anticipate potential breakout or breakdown scenarios, enhancing their ability to react to imminent trend changes.
By simplifying the visualization of the Guppy Multiple Moving Averages with clouds, providing earlier buy and sell signals through the oscillator, and highlighting periods of market consolidation with compression dots, this toolkit offers traders insightful tools for navigating market trends and potential reversals.
Give this indicator a BOOST and COMMENT your thoughts below!
We hope you enjoy.
Cheers!
Moving Average Cross Probability [AlgoAlpha]Moving Average Cross Probability 📈✨
The Moving Average Cross Probability by AlgoAlpha calculates the probability of a cross-over or cross-under between the fast and slow values of a user defined Moving Average type before it happens, allowing users to benefit by front running the market.
✨ Key Features:
📊 Probability Histogram: Displays the Probability of MA cross in the form of a histogram.
🔄 Data Table: Displays forecast information for quick analysis.
🎨 Customizable MAs: Choose from various moving averages and customize their length.
🚀 How to Use:
🛠 Add Indicator: Add the indicator to favorites, and customize the settings to suite your trading style.
📊 Analyze Market: Watch the indicator to look for trend shifts early or for trend continuations.
🔔 Set Alerts: Get notified of bullish/bearish points.
✨ How It Works:
The Moving Average Cross Probability Indicator by AlgoAlpha determines the probability by looking at a probable range of values that the price can take in the next bar and finds out what percentage of those possibilities result in the user defined moving average crossing each other. This is done by first using the HMA to predict what the next price value will be, a standard deviation based range is then calculated. The range is divided by the user defined resolution and is split into multiple levels, each of these levels represent a possible value for price in the next bar. These possible predicted values are used to calculate the possible MA values for both the fast and slow MAs that may occur in the next bar and are then compared to see how many of those possible MA results end up crossing each other.
Stay ahead of the market with the Moving Average Cross Probability Indicator AlgoAlpha! 📈💡
Color Hull Moving AverageDescription:
The Color Hull Moving Average (CHMA) is a technical indicator designed to smooth and remove lag from traditional moving averages, making it more responsive to price movements. This indicator automatically adjusts the color of the moving average to green when it is rising and red when it is falling, helping to identify trends in a more visual and sophisticated way.
Characteristics:
Period: User configurable (default: 20)
Data Source: Can be applied to any price series, such as closing, opening, high, low, etc.
Dynamic Colors: The HMA line changes color based on its direction, making it easy to see trends.
Green: Uptrend
Red: Downtrend
How to use:
Period Configuration: Adjust the period to improve improvements and reactivity according to the asset and timeframe analyzed.
Color Interpretation: Use color changes to identify inflection points in the market.
Combination with Other Indicators: The HMA can be combined with other technical indicators to validate entry and exit signals.
Warning: Although HMA is a powerful tool, we recommend using it in conjunction with other forms of analysis for best results.
Dickey-Fuller Test for Mean Reversion and Stationarity **IF YOU NEED EXTRA SPECIAL HELP UNDERSTANDING THIS INDICATOR, GO TO THE BOTTOM OF THE DESCRIPTION FOR AN EVEN SIMPLER DESCRIPTION**
Dickey Fuller Test:
The Dickey-Fuller test is a statistical test used to determine whether a time series is stationary or has a unit root (a characteristic of a time series that makes it non-stationary), indicating that it is non-stationary. Stationarity means that the statistical properties of a time series, such as mean and variance, are constant over time. The test checks to see if the time series is mean-reverting or not. Many traders falsely assume that raw stock prices are mean-reverting when they are not, as evidenced by many different types of statistical models that show how stock prices are almost always positively autocorrelated or statistical tests like this one, which show that stock prices are not stationary.
Note: This indicator uses past results, and the results will always be changing as new data comes in. Just because it's stationary during a rare occurrence doesn't mean it will always be stationary. Especially in price, where this would be a rare occurrence on this test. (The Test Statistic is below the critical value.)
The indicator also shows the option to either choose Raw Price, Simple Returns, or Log Returns for the test.
Raw Prices:
Stock prices are usually non-stationary because they follow some type of random walk, exhibiting positive autocorrelation and trends in the long term.
The Dickey-Fuller test on raw prices will indicate non-stationary most of the time since prices are expected to have a unit root. (If the test statistic is higher than the critical value, it suggests the presence of a unit root, confirming non-stationarity.)
Simple Returns and Log Returns:
Simple and log returns are more stationary than prices, if not completely stationary, because they measure relative changes rather than absolute levels.
This test on simple and log returns may indicate stationary behavior, especially over longer periods. (The test statistic being below the critical value suggests the absence of a unit root, indicating stationarity.)
Null Hypothesis (H0): The time series has a unit root (it is non-stationary).
Alternative Hypothesis (H1): The time series does not have a unit root (it is stationary)
Interpretation: If the test statistic is less than the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the time series is stationary.
Types of Dickey-Fuller Tests:
1. (What this indicator uses) Standard Dickey-Fuller Test:
Tests the null hypothesis that a unit root is present in a simple autoregressive model.
This test is used for simple cases where we just want to check if the series has a consistent statistical property over time without considering any trends or additional complexities.
It examines the relationship between the current value of the series and its previous value to see if the series tends to drift over time or revert to the mean.
2. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test:
Tests for a unit root while accounting for more complex structures like trends and higher-order correlations in the data.
This test is more robust and is used when the time series has trends or other patterns that need to be considered.
It extends the regular test by including additional terms to account for the complexities, and this test may be more reliable than the regular Dickey-Fuller Test.
For things like stock prices, the ADF would be more appropriate because stock prices are almost always trending and positively autocorrelated, while the Dickey-Fuller Test is more appropriate for more simple time series.
Critical Values
This indicator uses the following critical values that are essential for interpreting the Dickey-Fuller test results. The critical values depend on the chosen significance levels:
1% Significance Level: Critical value of -3.43.
5% Significance Level: Critical value of -2.86.
10% Significance Level: Critical value of -2.57.
These critical values are thresholds that help determine whether to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root (non-stationarity). If the test statistic is less than (or more negative than) the critical value, it indicates that the time series is stationary. Conversely, if the test statistic is greater than the critical value, the series is considered non-stationary.
This indicator uses a dotted blue line by default to show the critical value. If the test-static, which is the gray column, goes below the critical value, then the test-static will become yellow, and the test will indicate that the time series is stationary or mean reverting for the current period of time.
What does this mean?
This is the weekly chart of BTCUSD with the Dickey-Fuller Test, with a length of 100 and a critical value of 1%.
So basically, in the long term, mean-reversion strategies that involve raw prices are not a good idea. You don't really need a statistical test either for this; just from seeing the chart itself, you can see that prices in the long term are trending and no mean reversion is present.
For the people who can't understand that the gray column being above the blue dotted line means price doesn't mean revert, here is a more simple description (you know you are):
Average (I have to include the meaning because they may not know what average is): The middle number is when you add up all the numbers and then divide by how many numbers there are. EX: If you have the numbers 2, 4, and 6, you add them up to get 12, and then divide by 3 (because there are 3 numbers), so the average is 4. It tells you what a typical number is in a group of numbers.
This indicator checks if a time series (like stock prices) tends to return to its average value or time.
Raw prices, which is just the regular price chart, are usually not mean-reverting (It's "always" positively autocorrelating but this group of people doesn't like that word). Price follows trends.
Simple returns and log returns are more likely to have periods of mean reversion.
How to use it:
Gray Column (the gray bars) Above the Blue Dotted Line: The price does not mean revert (non-stationary).
Gray Column Below Blue Line: The time series mean reverts (stationary)
So, if the test statistic (gray column) is below the critical value, which is the blue dotted line, then the series is stationary and mean reverting, but if it is above the blue dotted line, then the time series is not stationary or mean reverting, and strategies involving mean reversion will most likely result in a loss given enough occurrences.
Chuck Dukas Market Phases of Trends (based on 2 Moving Averages)This script is based on the article “Defining The Bull And The Bear” by Chuck Duckas, published in Stocks & Commodities V. 25:13 (14-22); (S&C Bonus Issue, 2007).
The article “Defining The Bull And The Bear” discusses the concepts of “bullish” and “bearish” in relation to the price behavior of financial instruments. Chuck Dukas explains the importance of analyzing price trends and provides a framework for categorizing price activity into six phases. These phases, including recovery, accumulation, bullish, warning, distribution, and bearish, help to assess the quality of the price structure and guide decision-making in trading. Moving averages are used as tools for determining the context preceding the current price action, and the slope of a moving average is seen as an indicator of trend and price phase analysis.
The six phases of trends
// Definitions of Market Phases
recovery_phase = src > ma050 and src < ma200 and ma050 < ma200 // color: blue
accumulation_phase = src > ma050 and src > ma200 and ma050 < ma200 // color: purple
bullish_phase = src > ma050 and src > ma200 and ma050 > ma200 // color: green
warning_phase = src < ma050 and src > ma200 and ma050 > ma200 // color: yellow
distribution_phase = src < ma050 and src < ma200 and ma050 > ma200 // color: orange
bearish_phase = src < ma050 and src < ma200 and ma050 < ma200 // color red
Recovery Phase : This phase marks the beginning of a new trend after a period of consolidation or downtrend. It is characterized by the gradual increase in prices as the market starts to recover from previous losses.
Accumulation Phase : In this phase, the market continues to build a base as prices stabilize before making a significant move. It is a period of consolidation where buying and selling are balanced.
Bullish Phase : The bullish phase indicates a strong upward trend in prices with higher highs and higher lows. It is a period of optimism and positive sentiment in the market.
Warning Phase : This phase occurs when the bullish trend starts to show signs of weakness or exhaustion. It serves as a cautionary signal to traders and investors that a potential reversal or correction may be imminent.
Distribution Phase : The distribution phase is characterized by the market topping out as selling pressure increases. It is a period where supply exceeds demand, leading to a potential shift in trend direction.
Bearish Phase : The bearish phase signifies a strong downward trend in prices with lower lows and lower highs. It is a period of pessimism and negative sentiment in the market.
These rules of the six phases outline the cyclical nature of market trends and provide traders with a framework for understanding and analyzing price behavior to make informed trading decisions based on the current market phase.
60-period channel
The 60-period channel should be applied differently in each phase of the market cycle.
Recovery Phase : In this phase, the 60-period channel can help identify the beginning of a potential uptrend as price stabilizes or improves. Traders can look for new highs frequently in the 60-period channel to confirm the trend initiation or continuation.
Accumulation Phase : During the accumulation phase, the 60-period channel can highlight that the current price is sufficiently strong to be above recent price and longer-term price. Traders may observe new highs frequently in the 60-period channel as the slope of the 50-period moving average (SMA) trends upwards while the 200-period moving average (SMA) slope is losing its downward slope.
Bullish Phase : In the bullish phase, the 60-period channel showing a series of higher highs is crucial for confirming the uptrend. Additionally, traders should observe an upward-sloping 50-period SMA above an upward-sloping 200-period SMA for further validation of the bullish phase.
Warning Phase : When in the warning phase, the 60-period channel can provide insights into whether the current price is weaker than recent prices. Traders should pay attention to the relationship between the price close, the 50-period SMA, and the 200-period SMA to gauge the strength of the phase.
Distribution Phase : In the distribution phase, traders should look for new lows frequently in the 60-period channel, hinting at a weakening trend. It is crucial to observe that the 50-period SMA is still above the 200-period SMA in this phase.
Bearish Phase : Lastly, in the bearish phase, the 60-period channel reflecting a series of lower lows confirms the downtrend. Traders should also note that the price close is below both the 50-period SMA and the 200-period SMA, with the relationship of the 50-period SMA being less than the 200-period SMA.
By carefully analyzing the 60-period channel in each phase, traders can better understand market trends and make informed decisions regarding their investments.
Volume-Enhanced Momentum Moving Average (VEMMA)Volume-Enhanced Momentum Moving Average (VEMMA)
Overview:
The Volume-Enhanced Momentum Moving Average (VEMMA) helps you spot market trends by combining momentum and volume as a moving average. This unique moving average adjusts itself based on the strength and activity of the market, giving you a clearer picture of what’s happening.
How It Works:
1. Key Settings (all of these are adjustable in the settings panel of the indicator):
◦ Base Length: Looks back over the last 50 days by default.
◦ Momentum Length: Uses the past 14 days to measure market strength.
◦ Volume Length: Uses the past 30 days to average trading volume.
◦ High/Low Thresholds: Considers RSI values above 70 as high momentum and below 30 as low momentum.
2. Momentum and Volume:
◦ Momentum: Calculated using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to see if the market is gaining or losing strength.
◦ Volume: Average trading volume is calculated over the last 30 days to gauge trading activity.
3. VEMMA Calculation:
◦ For each of the past 50 days:
▪ Check Momentum: If RSI > 70, it’s high momentum; if RSI < 30, it’s low.
▪ Weight by Volume: High momentum days with high volume get more weight; low momentum days get less.
▪ Combine: Multiply the closing price by this weight and sum it up.
◦ Average: Divide the total by 50 to get the VEMMA value.
4. Visuals:
◦ Lines: Two lines, VEMMA1 (blue) and VEMMA2 (orange), show the adjusted moving averages.
◦ Colours: Background colors help you quickly spot high (green) and low (red) momentum periods.
How to Use:
• Spot Trends: Rising VEMMA lines suggest an uptrend; falling lines suggest a downtrend.
• Confirm Signals: When both VEMMA1 and VEMMA2 move together, it indicates a strong trend.
• Identify Reversals: Watch for background color changes from green to red or vice versa to catch potential trend reversals.
If the market has been strong and active, the VEMMA line will rise more sharply. If the market is weak and quiet, the line will be smoother.
Benefits:
• Integrated View: Combines market strength and trading activity for a fuller picture.
• Responsive: Adapts to significant market changes, highlighting key movements.
• Easy to Read: Clear visuals with color-coded backgrounds make interpretation simple.
Remember, just like any other indicator, this is not supposed to be used alone. Use it as part of your greater trading strategy. I do however believe it works exceptionally well for finding longer term trends early. The default VEMMA settings work very well as replacement for the EMA 200. Try it and see how it goes. Play around with the settings. Feedback appreciated.
Wall Street Cheat Sheet IndicatorThe Wall Street Cheat Sheet Indicator is a unique tool designed to help traders identify the psychological stages of the market cycle based on the well-known Wall Street Cheat Sheet. This indicator integrates moving averages and RSI to dynamically label market stages, providing clear visual cues on the chart.
Key Features:
Dynamic Stage Identification: The indicator automatically detects and labels market stages such as Disbelief, Hope, Optimism, Belief, Thrill, Euphoria, Complacency, Anxiety, Denial, Panic, Capitulation, Anger, and Depression. These stages are derived from the emotional phases of market participants, helping traders anticipate market movements.
Technical Indicators: The script uses two key technical indicators:
200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): Helps identify long-term market trends.
50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): Aids in recognizing medium-term trends.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Assesses the momentum and potential reversal points based on overbought and oversold conditions.
Clear Visual Labels: The current market stage is displayed directly on the chart, making it easy to spot trends and potential turning points.
Usefulness:
This indicator is not just a simple mashup of existing tools. It uniquely combines the concept of market psychology with practical technical analysis tools (moving averages and RSI). By labeling the psychological stages of the market cycle, it provides traders with a deeper understanding of market sentiment and potential future movements.
How It Works:
Disbelief: Detected when the price is below the 200-day SMA and RSI is in the oversold territory, indicating a potential bottom.
Hope: Triggered when the price crosses above the 50-day SMA, with RSI starting to rise but still below 50, suggesting an early uptrend.
Optimism: Occurs when the price is above the 50-day SMA and RSI is between 50 and 70, indicating a strengthening trend.
Belief: When the price is well above the 50-day SMA and RSI is between 70 and 80, showing strong bullish momentum.
Thrill and Euphoria: Identified when RSI exceeds 80, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a peak.
Complacency to Depression: These stages are identified based on price corrections and drops relative to moving averages and declining RSI values.
Best Practices:
High-Time Frame Focus: This indicator works best on high-time frame charts, specifically the 1-week Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) chart. The longer time frame provides a clearer picture of the overall market cycle and reduces noise.
Trend Confirmation: Use in conjunction with other technical analysis tools such as trendlines, Fibonacci retracement levels, and support/resistance zones for more robust trading strategies.
How to Use:
Add the Indicator: Apply the Wall Street Cheat Sheet Indicator to your TradingView chart.
Analyze Market Stages: Observe the dynamic labels indicating the current stage of the market cycle.
Make Informed Decisions: Use the insights from the indicator to time your entries and exits, aligning your trades with the market sentiment.
This indicator is a valuable tool for traders looking to understand market psychology and make informed trading decisions based on the stages of the market cycle.
Total Cross CalculatorThe Indicator calculates the total number of the death and golden crosses in the total chart which can help the moving average user to compare the number of signals generated by the moving average pair in the given timeframe.
If Indicator is not plotting anything then right click on the indicator's scale and click on "Auto(data fits the screen)" option.
Please visit it's previous version if you want to use the indicator on the moving averages created by yourself. Link is here
Trend Following Parabolic Buy Sell Strategy [TradeDots]The Trend Following Parabolic Buy-Sell Strategy leverages the Parabolic SAR in combination with moving average crossovers to deliver buy and sell signals within a trend-following framework.
This strategy synthesizes proven methodologies sourced from various trading tutorials available on platforms such as YouTube and blogs, enabling traders to conduct robust backtesting on their selected trading pairs to assess the strategy's effectiveness.
HOW IT WORKS
This strategy employs four key indicators to orchestrate its trading signals:
1. Trend Alignment: It first assesses the relationship between the price and the predominant trendline to determine the directional stance—taking long positions only when the price trends above the moving average, signaling an upward market trajectory.
2. Momentum Confirmation: Subsequent to trend alignment, the strategy looks for moving average crossovers as a confirmation that the price is gaining momentum in the direction of the intended trades.
3. Signal Finalization: Finally, buy or sell signals are validated using the Parabolic SAR indicator. A long order is validated when the closing price is above the Parabolic SAR dots, and similarly, conditions are reversed for short orders.
4. Risk Management: The strategy institutes a fixed stop-loss at the moving average trendline and a take-profit level determinable by a prefixed risk-reward ratio calculated from the moving average trendline. These parameters are customizable by the users within the strategy settings.
APPLICATION
Designed for assets exhibiting pronounced directional momentum, this strategy aims to capitalize on clear trend movements conducive to achieving set take-profit targets.
As a lagging strategy that waits for multiple confirmatory signals, entry into trades might occasionally lag beyond optimal timing.
Furthermore, in periods of consolidation or sideways movement, the strategy may generate several false signals, suggesting the potential need for additional market condition filters to enhance signal accuracy during volatile phases.
DEFAULT SETUP
Commission: 0.01%
Initial Capital: $10,000
Equity per Trade: 70%
Users are advised to adjust and personalize this trading strategy to better match their individual trading preferences and style.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Multiple MAs Signals with RSI MA Filter & Signal About the Script
The "Multiple Moving Averages Signals with RSI MA Filter and Golden Signals" script is a comprehensive trading tool designed to provide traders with detailed insights and actionable signals based on multiple moving averages and RSI (Relative Strength Index). This script combines traditional moving average crossovers with RSI filtering to enhance the accuracy of trading signals and includes "golden" signals to highlight significant long-term trend changes.
This script integrates several technical indicators and concepts to create a robust and versatile trading tool. Here's why this combination is both original and useful:
1. Multiple Moving Averages:
- Why Use Multiple MAs: Different types of moving averages (SMA, EMA, SMMA, WMA, VWMA, Hull) offer unique perspectives on price trends and volatility. Combining them allows traders to capture a more comprehensive view of the market.
- Purpose: Using multiple moving averages helps identify trend direction, support/resistance levels, and potential reversal points.
2. RSI MA Filter:
- Why Use RSI: RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It is used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in a market.
- Purpose: Filtering signals with RSI moving averages ensures that trades are taken in line with the prevailing momentum, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
3. Golden Signals:
- Why Use Golden Crosses: A golden cross (50-period MA crossing above the 200-period MA) is a well-known bullish signal, while a death cross (50-period MA crossing below the 200-period MA) is bearish. These signals are widely followed by traders and institutions.
- Purpose: Highlighting these significant long-term signals helps traders identify major buy or sell opportunities and align with broader market trends.
How the Script Works
1. Moving Average Calculations:
- The script calculates multiple moving averages (MA1 to MA5) based on user-selected types (SMA, EMA, SMMA, WMA, VWMA, Hull) and periods (9, 21, 50, 100, 200).
- Golden Moving Averages: Separately calculates 50-period and 200-period moving averages for generating golden signals.
2. RSI and RSI MA Filter:
- RSI Calculation: Computes the RSI for the given period.
- RSI MA: Calculates a moving average of the RSI to smooth out the RSI values and reduce noise.
- RSI MA Filter: Traders can enable/disable RSI filtering and set custom thresholds to refine long and short signals based on RSI momentum.
3. Long & Short Signal Generation:
- Long Signal: Generated when the short-term moving average crosses above both the mid-term and long-term moving averages, and the RSI MA is below the specified threshold (if enabled).
- Short Signal: Generated when the short-term moving average crosses below both the mid-term and long-term moving averages, and the RSI MA is above the specified threshold (if enabled).
4. Golden Signals:
- Golden Long Signal: Triggered when the 50-period golden moving average crosses above the 200-period golden moving average.
- Golden Short Signal: Triggered when the 50-period golden moving average crosses below the 200-period golden moving average.
How to Use the Script
1. Customize Inputs:
- Moving Averages: Choose the type of moving averages and set the periods for up to five different moving averages.
- RSI Settings: Adjust the RSI period and its moving average period. Enable or disable RSI filtering and set custom thresholds for long and short signals.
- Signal Colors: Customize the colors for long, short, and golden signals.
- Enable/Disable Signals: Toggle the visibility of long, short, and golden signals.
2. Observe Plots and Signals:
- The script plots the selected moving averages on the chart.
- Long and short signals are marked with labels on the chart, with customizable colors for easy identification.
- Golden signals are highlighted with specific labels to indicate significant long-term trend changes.
3. Analyze and Trade:
- Use the generated signals as part of your trading strategy. The script provides visual cues to help you make informed decisions about entering or exiting trades based on multiple technical indicators.
Unique Features
1. Integration of Multiple Moving Averages: Combines various moving average types to provide a holistic view of market trends.
2. RSI MA Filtering: Enhances signal accuracy by incorporating RSI momentum, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
3. Golden Signals: Highlights significant long-term trend changes, aligning with broader market movements.
4. Customizability: Offers extensive customization options, allowing traders to tailor the script to their specific trading strategies and preferences.
feel free to comments.
Total Death and Golden Crosses Calculator The Indicator calculates the total number of the death and golden crosses in the total chart which can help the moving average user to compare the number of signals generated by the moving average pair in the given timeframe.
All you need is to plot any two moving average then change the source of the indicator to get the total number of crosses.
If Indicator is not plotting anything then right click on the indicator's scale and click on "Auto(data fits the screen" option.
20,200SMA,PDHL,15 minute ORBSimple Moving Averages (SMAs):
The script calculates three SMAs: SMA 20 High, SMA 20 Low, and SMA 200 Close. These moving averages are widely used in technical analysis to smooth out price data and identify trends.
The SMA for the high price (SMA 20 High) is calculated based on the 20-period moving average of the high prices.
Similarly, the SMA for the low price (SMA 20 Low) is calculated based on the 20-period moving average of the low prices.
The SMA for the close price (SMA 200 Close) is calculated based on the 200-period moving average of the closing prices.
Each SMA is plotted on the chart, and their colors are determined based on whether the current close price is above or below each respective SMA.
Conditional Coloring:
The script employs conditional coloring to visually highlight whether the close price is above or below each SMA.
If the close price is below the SMA 20 High, it's plotted in red; otherwise, it's plotted in green.
Similarly, the SMA 20 Low and SMA 200 Close are plotted with conditional colors based on the relationship between the close price and each respective SMA.
Previous Day's Data:
The script retrieves and plots the high, low, and close prices of the previous trading day.
This provides traders with valuable information about the previous day's market behavior, which can influence trading decisions.
Opening 15-minute Range Breakout:
The script calculates the high and low prices during the first 15 minutes of each trading day.
These prices represent the opening range for the day.
It then determines whether the current close price is above or below this opening range and plots it accordingly.
This breakout strategy helps traders identify potential trading opportunities based on early price movements.
By integrating these components, the script offers traders a comprehensive analysis of market trends, previous day's performance, and potential breakout opportunities. Its originality lies in the combination of these features into a single, easy-to-use indicator, providing valuable insights for trading decisions.
Trailing Take Profit - Close Based📝 Description
This script demonstrates a new approach to the trailing take profit.
Trailing Take Profit is a price-following technique. When used, instead of setting a limit order for the take profit target exiting from your position at the specified price, a stop order is conditionally set when the take profit target is reached. Then, the stop price (a.k.a trailing price), is placed below the take profit target at a distance defined by the user percentagewise. On regular time intervals, the stop price gets updated by following the "Trail Barrier" price (high by default) upwards. When the current price hits the stop price you exit the trade. Check the chart for more details.
This script demonstrates how to implement the close-based Trailing Take Profit logic for long positions, but it can also be applied for short positions if the logic is "reversed".
📢 NOTE
To generate some entries and showcase the "Trailing Take Profit" technique, this script uses the crossing of two moving averages. Please keep in mind that you should not relate the Backtesting results you see in the "Strategy Tester" tab with the success of the technique itself.
This is not a complete strategy per se, and the backtest results are affected by many parameters that are outside of the scope of this publication. If you choose to use this new approach of the "Trailing Take Profit" in your logic you have to make sure that you are backtesting the whole strategy.
⚔️ Comparison
In contrast to my older "Trailing Take Profit" publication where the trailing take profit implementation was tick-based, this new approach is close-based, meaning that the update of the stop price occurs at the bar close instead of every tick.
While comparing the real-time results of the two implementations is like comparing apples to oranges, because they have different dynamic behavior, the new approach offers better consistency between the backtesting results and the real-time results.
By updating the stop price on every bar close, you do not rely on the backtester assumptions anymore (check the Reasoning section below for more info).
The new approach resembles the conditional "Trailing Exit" technique, where the condition is true when the current price crosses over the take profit target. Then, the stop order is placed at the trailing price and it gets updated on every bar close to "follow" the barrier price (high). On the other hand, the older tick-based approach had more "tight" dynamics since the trailing price gets updated on every tick leaving less room for price fluctuations by making it more probable to reach the trailing price.
🤔 Reasoning
This new close-based approach addresses several practical issues the older tick-based approach had. Those issues arise mainly from the technicalities of the TV Backtester. More specifically, due to the assumptions the Broker Emulator makes for the price action of the history bars, the backtesting results in the TV Backtester are exaggerated, and depending on the timeframe, the backtesting results look way better than they are in reality.
The effect above, and the inability to reason about the performance of a strategy separated people into two groups. Those who never use this feature, because they couldn't know for sure the actual effect it might have in their strategy, (even if it turned out to be more profitable) and those who abused this type of "repainting" behavior to show off, and hijack some boosts from the community by boasting about the "fake" results of their strategies.
Even if there are ways to evaluate the effectiveness of the tick-based approach that is applied in an existing strategy (this is out of the topic of this publication), it requires extra effort to do the analysis. Using this closed-based approach we can have more predictable results, without surprises.
⚠️ Caveats
Since this approach updates the trailing price on bar close, you must wait for at least one bar to close after the price crosses over the take profit target.
