Gold Power Hours Strategy📈 Gold Power Hours Trading Strategy
Trade XAUUSD (Gold) or XAUEUR during the most volatile hours of the New York session, using momentum and trend confirmation, with session-specific risk/reward profiles.
✅ Strategy Rules
🕒 Valid Trading Times ("Power Hours"):
Trades are only taken during high-probability time windows on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays , corresponding to key New York session activity:
Morning Session:
08:00 – 11:00 (NY time)
Afternoon Session:
12:30 – 16:00
19:00 – 22:00
These times align with institutional activity and economic news releases.
📊 Technical Indicators Used:
50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA50):
Identifies the dominant market trend.
14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Measures market momentum with session-adjusted thresholds.
🟩 Buy Signal Criteria:
Price is above the 50-period SMA (bullish trend)
RSI is greater than:
60 during Morning Session
55 during Afternoon Session
Must be during a valid day (Tue–Thu) and Power Hour session
🟥 Sell Signal Criteria:
Price is below the 50-period SMA (bearish trend)
RSI is less than:
40 during Morning Session
45 during Afternoon Session
Must be during a valid day and Power Hour session
🎯 Trade Management Rules:
Morning Session (08:00–11:00)
Stop Loss (SL): 50 pips
Take Profit (TP): 150 pips
Risk–Reward Ratio: 1:3
Afternoon Session (12:30–16:00 & 19:00–22:00)
Stop Loss (SL): 50 pips
Take Profit (TP): up to 100 pips
Risk–Reward Ratio: up to 1:2
⚠️ TP is slightly reduced in the afternoon due to typically lower volatility compared to the morning session.
📺 Visuals & Alerts:
Buy signals: Green triangle plotted below the bar
Sell signals: Red triangle plotted above the bar
SMA50 line: Orange
Valid session background: Light pink
Alerts: Automatic alerts for buy/sell signals
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ORB-HL1. Opening Range Detection
Automatically calculates the high and low of the first 15 minutes after the selected session opens.
Supported sessions:
New York (Futures): 08:30–08:45 EST
New York (Equities): 09:30–09:45 EST
London: 03:00–03:15 GMT
Asia: 19:00–19:15 JST
Plots ORB high/low lines for the rest of the day.
2. Breakout Signals
Highlights the first valid breakout above or below the ORB range on the:
5-minute timeframe
15-minute timeframe
Green arrows = breakout up (long)
Red arrows = breakout down (short)
3. 1-Minute Projection
When a breakout is confirmed on a higher timeframe (5m or 15m), a projection label (e.g., "5m", "15m") appears on the 1-minute chart.
Purple label = 5m breakout
Teal label = 15m breakout
Helps you confirm momentum in real time while on the 1-minute chart.
4. Trailing Stop System
Uses ATR to create an adaptive trailing stop after breakout.
Turns green when price is above stop (bullish), red when below (bearish).
Optional Buy / Sell signal labels appear on crossover events.
5. Session High/Low Visualization
Tracks and displays the previous session’s High and Low for:
Tokyo
London
New York
Lines extend into the current session to act as S/R reference.
Labels like "NY High", "Asia Low" are placed at the end of each line.
6. Alerts
Built-in alerts for:
First 5m or 15m breakout (long/short)
Trailing stop Buy/Sell crossover
7. Customization Options
Turn session H/L lines on/off per session
Customize projection visibility
Adjust ATR period and sensitivity
Set how far each session line extends using bar offsets
Dskyz Adaptive Futures Elite (DAFE)Dskyz Adaptive Futures Edge (DAFE)
imgur.com
A Dynamic Futures Trading Strategy
DAFE adapts to market volatility and price action using technical indicators and advanced risk management. It’s built for high-stakes futures trading (e.g., MNQ, BTCUSDT.P), offering modular logic for scalpers and swing traders alike.
Key Features
Adaptive Moving Averages
Dynamic Logic: Fast and slow SMAs adjust lengths via ATR, reacting to momentum shifts and smoothing in calm markets.
Signals: Long entry on fast SMA crossing above slow SMA with price confirmation; short on cross below.
RSI Filtering (Optional)
Momentum Check: Confirms entries with RSI crossovers (e.g., above oversold for longs). Toggle on/off with custom levels.
Fine-Tuning: Adjustable lookback and thresholds (e.g., 60/40) for precision.
Candlestick Pattern Recognition
Eng|Enhanced Detection: Identifies strong bullish/bearish engulfing patterns, validated by volume and range strength (vs. 10-period SMA).
Conflict Avoidance: Skips trades if both patterns appear in the lookback window, reducing whipsaws.
Multi-Timeframe Trend Filter
15-Minute Alignment: Syncs intrabar trades with 15-minute SMA trends; optional for flexibility.
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) New!
Scaling: Adds up to a set number of entries (e.g., 4) on pullbacks/rallies, spaced by ATR multiples.
Control: Caps exposure and resets on exit, enhancing trend-following potential.
Trade Execution & Risk Management
Entry Rules: Prioritizes moving averages or patterns (user choice), with volume, volatility, and time filters.
Stops & Trails:
Initial Stop: ATR-based (2–3.5x, volatility-adjusted).
Trailing Stop: Locks profits with configurable ATR offset and multiplier.
Discipline
Cooldown: Pauses post-exit (e.g., 0–5 minutes).
Min Hold: Ensures trades last a set number of bars (e.g., 2–10).
Visualization & Tools
Charts: Overlays MAs, stops, and signals; trend shaded in background.
Dashboard: Shows position, P&L, win rate, and more in real-time.
Debugging: Logs signal details for optimization.
Input Parameters
Parameter Purpose Suggested Use
Use RSI Filter - Toggle RSI confirmation *Disable 4 price-only
trading
RSI Length - RSI period (e.g., 14) *7–14 for sensitivity
RSI Overbought/Oversold - Adjust for market type *Set levels (e.g., 60/40)
Use Candlestick Patterns - Enables engulfing signals *Disable for MA focus
Pattern Lookback - Pattern window (e.g., 19) *10–20 bars for balance
Use 15m Trend Filter - Align with 15-min trend *Enable for trend trades
Fast/Slow MA Length - Base MA lengths (e.g., 9/19) *10–25 / 30–60 per
timeframe
Volatility Threshold - Filters volatile spikes *Max ATR/close (e.g., 1%)
Min Volume - Entry volume threshold *Avoid illiquid periods
(e.g., 10)
ATR Length - ATR period (e.g., 14) *Standard volatility
measure
Trailing Stop ATR Offset - Trail distance (e.g., 0.5) *0.5–1.5 for tightness
Trailing Stop ATR Multi - Trail multiplier (e.g., 1.0) *1–3 for trend room
Cooldown Minutes - Post-exit pause (e.g., 0–5) *Prevents overtrading
Min Bars to Hold - Min trade duration (e.g., 2) *5–10 for intraday
Trading Hours - Active window (e.g., 9–16) *Focus on key sessions
Use DCA - Toggle DCA *Enable for scaling
Max DCA Entries - Cap entries (e.g., 4) *Limit risk exposure
DCA ATR Multiplier Entry spacing (e.g., 1.0) *1–2 for wider gaps
Compliance
Realistic Testing: Fixed quantities, capital, and slippage for accurate backtests.
Transparency: All logic is user-visible and adjustable.
Risk Controls: Cooldowns, stops, and hold periods ensure stability.
Flexibility: Adapts to various futures and timeframes.
Summary
DAFE excels in volatile futures markets with adaptive logic, DCA scaling, and robust risk tools. Currently in prop account testing, it’s a powerful framework for precision trading.
Caution
DAFE is experimental, not a profit guarantee. Futures trading risks significant losses due to leverage. Backtest, simulate, and monitor actively before live use. All trading decisions are your responsibility.
Quantitative Easing and Tightening PeriodsQuantitative Easing (QE) and Quantitative Tightening (QT) periods based on historical events from the Federal Reserve:
Quantitative Easing (QE) Periods:
QE1:
Start: November 25, 2008
End: March 31, 2010
Description: The Federal Reserve initiated QE1 in response to the financial crisis, purchasing mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries.
QE2:
Start: November 3, 2010
End: June 29, 2011
Description: QE2 involved the purchase of $600 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds to further stimulate the economy.
QE3:
Start: September 13, 2012
End: October 29, 2014
Description: QE3 was an open-ended bond-buying program with monthly purchases of $85 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
QE4 (COVID-19 Pandemic Response):
Start: March 15, 2020
End: March 10, 2022
Description: The Federal Reserve engaged in QE4 in response to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, purchasing Treasuries and MBS in an effort to provide liquidity.
Quantitative Tightening (QT) Periods:
QT1:
Start: October 1, 2017
End: August 1, 2019
Description: The Federal Reserve began shrinking its balance sheet in 2017, gradually reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. This period ended in August 2019 when the Fed decided to stop reducing its balance sheet.
QT2:
Start: June 1, 2022
End: Ongoing (as of March 2025)
Description: The Federal Reserve started QT again in June 2022, reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and MBS in response to rising inflation. The Fed has continued this tightening cycle.
These periods are key moments in U.S. monetary policy, where the Fed either injected liquidity into the economy (QE) or reduced its balance sheet by not reinvesting maturing securities (QT). The exact dates and nature of these policies may vary based on interpretation and adjustments to the Fed's actions during those times.
Intrabar BoxPlotThe Intrabar BoxPlot publication highlights an uncommon technique by displaying statistical intrabar Lower Timeframe (LTF) values on the chart.
🔶 USAGE
🔹 Middle 50% Boxes
By showing the middle 50% intrabar values through a box, we can more easily see where the intrabar activity is mainly situated.
The middle 50% intrabar values are referred to from here on as Interquartile range (IQR).
In this example, the successive IQRs form a channel where the price eventually breaks out.
Disproportionately distributed values can give insights which can be used to find potential support/resistance areas.
IQR gaps can give valuable information as well. Potentially, the price can return to these gaps.
Seeing the IQR areas against regular candles gives an alternative image of the underlying price movements.
🔹 Highest volume Price level
The script displays the price level with the highest volume situated, dependable on the user's source setting. Setting the source at 'close' will only display intrabar close values; the same goes for high, low, ...
As seen in the above example, the volume levels can aid in finding support/resistance.
🔹 Median
The location of the median off all intrabar values is displayed as a coloured dot: green when the close price is higher than the opening price and red if otherwise. The median can give valuable insights into price movements.
🔹 Outliers
Medium (white dots) and extreme (white X) outliers, in combination with the IQR box, can help identify potential areas of interest.
🔹 Volume Delta
When there is a discrepancy between the delta volume and direction of the candle, this will be displayed as follows:
Green candle: when the sum of the volume of red intrabars is higher than the sum of the volume of green intrabars, the candle will be coloured orange.
Red candle: when the sum of the volume of green intrabars is higher than the sum of the volume of red intrabars, the candle will be coloured blue.
🔹 Highlight Boxplot only
Probably the easiest way to display boxplot only is by changing the Bar's style to Bars .
🔶 DETAILS
All intrabar values (Lower TimeFrame - LTF) are sorted and evaluated. Values can be close , high , low , ... by selecting this in Settings ( source ).
The middle 50% of all values are displayed as a box; this contains the values between percentile 25 (p25) and percentile 75 (p75). The value of percentile rank 75 means 75% of all values are lower. The value of percentile rank 25 means 25% of all values are lower, or 75% is higher.
The difference between p75 and p25 is also known as Interquartile range (IQR)
IQR is used to check for outliers.
Wiki: Boxplot , Interquartile range
Extreme high: maximum value, higher than p75 + IQR*3
Max outlier high: maximum value, higher than p75 + IQR*1.5 but lower than p75 + IQR*3
Max: maximum value, lower than p75 + IQR*1.5
Min: minimum value, higher than p25 - IQR*1.5
Min outlier low: minimum value, lower than p25 - IQR*1.5 but higher than p25 - IQR*3
Extreme low: minimum value, lower than p25 - IQR*3
Max and min must not be interpreted with the current candle high/low.
🔹 Example: Length of chart-puppets
The following example can make it easier to digest. Forty "chart-puppets" are sorted by their length.
The p25 value is 97
The p50 value is 120
The p75 value is 149
75% of all "chart-puppets" are smaller than p75, and 25% is larger than p75.
50% of all "chart-puppets" are smaller than p50, and 50% is larger than p50 (= median).
25% of all "chart-puppets" are smaller than p25, and 75% is larger than p25.
IQR = 149 - 97 = 52
Extreme outlier limit max: p75 + IQR*3 = 149 + 52*3 = 305
Mild outlier limit max: p75 + IQR*1.5 = 149 + 52*1.5 = 227
Mild outlier limit min: p25 - IQR*1.5 = 97 - 52*1.5 = 19
Extreme outlier limit min: p25 - IQR*3 = 97 - 52*3 = -59
In this example there are no outliers to be found, all values are located between p25 - IQR*1.5 (19) and p75 + IQR*1.5. (227)
🔹 Source settings
Note that results are dependable on the chosen source (settings). When, for example, close is chosen as the source, only intrabar close prices are included. This means a low or high can stretch further then the min or max.
Here we can see different results with different source settings
🔹 LTF settings
When 'Auto' is enabled (Settings, LTF), the LTF will be the nearest possible x times smaller TF than the current TF. When 'Premium' is disabled, the minimum TF will always be 1 minute to ensure TradingView plans lower than Premium don't get an error.
Examples with current Daily TF (when Premium is enabled):
500 : 3 minute LTF
1500 (default): 1 minute LTF
5000: 30 seconds LTF (1 minute if Premium is disabled)
🔶 SETTINGS
Source: Set source at close, high, low,...
🔹 LTF
LTF: LTF setting
Auto + multiple: Adjusts the initial set LTF
Premium: Enable when your TradingView plan is Premium or higher
🔹 Intrabar Delta : Colors, dependable on different circumstances.
Up: Price goes up, with more bullish than bearish intrabar volume.
Up-: Price goes up, with more bearish than bullish intrabar volume.
Down: Price goes down, with more bearish than bullish intrabar volume.
Down+: Price goes down, with more bullish than bearish intrabar volume.
🔹 Table
Show table: Show details at the top right corner
Show TF: Show LTF at the bottom right corner
Text color/table size
See DETAILS for more information
Sessions ny vizScript Purpose
This indicator draws a colored background during the New York trading session. It's useful for traders who want to have a visual overview of when the American (NY) trading session is active.
Main Features
NY Session Visualization - draws a gray bar in the background of the chart during NY trading hours (15:00-19:00 CET)
Customization - allows users to:
Set custom session time range
Adjust background color and transparency
Limit display to only the last 24 hours
Input Parameters
sessionRange - session time range (default 15:00-19:00 CET)
sessionColour - background color (default gray with 90% transparency)
onlyLast24Hours - toggle for showing only the last 24 hours (default false)
Technical Details
Script is written in Pine Script version 5
Uses UNIX timestamp for time period calculations
Runs as an overlay indicator (overlay=true), meaning it displays directly on the price chart
Uses the bgcolor() function for background rendering
Contains logic to check if current time is within defined session
Usage
This indicator is useful for:
Monitoring active NY trading session hours
Planning trades during the most liquid hours of the US market
Visual orientation in the chart during different trading sessions
Power Of 3 ICT 01 [TradingFinder] AMD ICT & SMC Accumulations🔵 Introduction
The ICT Power of 3 (PO3) strategy, developed by Michael J. Huddleston, known as the Inner Circle Trader, is a structured approach to analyzing daily market activity. This strategy divides the trading day into three distinct phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution.
Each phase represents a unique market behavior influenced by institutional traders, offering a clear framework for retail traders to align their strategies with market movements.
Accumulation (19:00 - 01:00 EST) takes place during low-volatility hours, as institutional traders accumulate orders. Manipulation (01:00 - 07:00 EST) involves false breakouts and liquidity traps designed to mislead retail traders. Finally, Distribution (07:00 - 13:00 EST) represents the active phase where significant market movements occur as institutions distribute their positions in line with the broader trend.
This indicator is built upon the Power of 3 principles to provide traders with a practical and visual tool for identifying these key phases. By using clear color coding and precise time zones, the indicator highlights critical price levels, such as highs and lows, helping traders to better understand market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions.
Incorporating the ICT AMD setup into daily analysis enables traders to anticipate market behavior, spot high-probability trade setups, and gain deeper insights into institutional trading strategies. With its focus on time-based price action, this indicator simplifies complex market structures, offering an effective tool for traders of all levels.
🔵 How to Use
The ICT Power of 3 (PO3) indicator is designed to help traders analyze daily market movements by visually identifying the three key phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution.
Here's how traders can effectively use the indicator :
🟣 Accumulation Phase (19:00 - 01:00 EST)
Purpose : Identify the range-bound activity where institutional players accumulate orders.
Trading Insight : Avoid placing trades during this phase, as price movements are typically limited. Instead, use this time to prepare for the potential direction of the market in the next phases.
🟣 Manipulation Phase (01:00 - 07:00 EST)
Purpose : Spot false breakouts and liquidity traps that mislead retail traders.
Trading Insight : Observe the market for price spikes beyond key support or resistance levels. These moves often reverse quickly, offering high-probability entry points in the opposite direction of the initial breakout.
🟣 Distribution Phase (07:00 - 13:00 EST)
Purpose : Detect the main price movement of the day, driven by institutional distribution.
Trading Insight : Enter trades in the direction of the trend established during this phase. Look for confirmations such as breakouts or strong directional moves that align with broader market sentiment
🔵 Settings
Show or Hide Phases :mDecide whether to display Accumulation, Manipulation, or Distribution.
Adjust the session times for each phase :
Accumulation: 1900-0100 EST
Manipulation: 0100-0700 EST
Distribution: 0700-1300 EST
Modify Visualization : Customize how the indicator looks by changing settings like colors and transparency.
🔵 Conclusion
The ICT Power of 3 (PO3) indicator is a powerful tool for traders seeking to understand and leverage market structure based on time and price dynamics. By visually highlighting the three key phases—Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution—this indicator simplifies the complex movements of institutional trading strategies.
With its customizable settings and clear representation of market behavior, the indicator is suitable for traders at all levels, helping them anticipate market trends and make more informed decisions.
Whether you're identifying entry points in the Accumulation phase, navigating false moves during Manipulation, or capitalizing on trends in the Distribution phase, this tool provides valuable insights to enhance your trading performance.
By integrating this indicator into your analysis, you can better align your strategies with institutional movements and improve your overall trading outcomes.
Macros ICT KillZones [TradingFinder] Times & Price Trading Setup🔵 Introduction
ICT Macros, developed by Michael Huddleston, also known as ICT (Inner Circle Trader), is a powerful trading tool designed to help traders identify the best trading opportunities during key time intervals like the London and New York trading sessions.
For traders aiming to capitalize on market volatility, liquidity shifts, and Fair Value Gaps (FVG), understanding and using these critical time zones can significantly improve trading outcomes.
In today’s highly competitive financial markets, identifying the moments when the market is seeking buy-side or sell-side liquidity, or filling price imbalances, is essential for maximizing profitability.
The ICT Macros indicator is built on the renowned ICT time and price theory, which enables traders to track and leverage key market dynamics such as breaks of highs and lows, imbalances, and liquidity hunts.
This indicator automatically detects crucial market times and optimizes strategies for traders by highlighting the specific moments when price movements are most likely to occur. A standout feature of ICT Macros is its automatic adjustment for Daylight Saving Time (DST), ensuring that traders remain synced with the correct session times.
This means you can rely on accurate market timing without the need for manual updates, allowing you to focus on capturing profitable trades during critical timeframes.
🔵 How to Use
The ICT Macros indicator helps you capitalize on trading opportunities during key market moments, particularly when the market is breaking highs or lows, filling Fair Value Gaps (FVG), or addressing imbalances. This indicator is particularly beneficial for traders who seek to identify liquidity, market volatility, and price imbalances.
🟣 Sessions
London Sessions
London Macro 1 :
UTC Time : 06:33 to 07:00
New York Time : 02:33 to 03:00
London Macro 2 :
UTC Time : 08:03 to 08:30
New York Time : 04:03 to 04:30
New York Sessions
New York Macro AM 1 :
UTC Time : 12:50 to 13:10
New York Time : 08:50 to 09:10
New York Macro AM 2 :
UTC Time : 13:50 to 14:10
New York Time : 09:50 to 10:10
New York Macro AM 3 :
UTC Time : 14:50 to 15:10
New York Time : 10:50 to 11:10
New York Lunch Macro :
UTC Time : 15:50 to 16:10
New York Time : 11:50 to 12:10
New York PM Macro :
UTC Time : 17:10 to 17:40
New York Time : 13:10 to 13:40
New York Last Hour Macro :
UTC Time : 19:15 to 19:45
New York Time : 15:15 to 15:45
These time intervals adjust automatically based on Daylight Saving Time (DST), helping traders to enter or exit trades during key market moments when price volatility is high.
Below are the main applications of this tool and how to incorporate it into your trading strategies :
🟣 Combining ICT Macros with Trading Strategies
The ICT Macros indicator can easily be used in conjunction with various trading strategies. Two well-known strategies that can be combined with this indicator include:
ICT 2022 Trading Model : This model is designed based on identifying market liquidity, structural price changes, and Fair Value Gaps (FVG). By using ICT Macros, you can identify the key time intervals when the market is seeking liquidity, filling imbalances, or breaking through important highs and lows, allowing you to enter or exit trades at the right moment.
Silver Bullet Strategy : This strategy, which is built around liquidity hunting and rapid price movements, can work more accurately with the help of ICT Macros. The indicator pinpoints precise liquidity times, helping traders take advantage of market shifts caused by filling Fair Value Gaps or correcting imbalances.
🟣 Capitalizing on Price Volatility During Key Times
Large market algorithms often seek liquidity or fill Fair Value Gaps (FVG) during the intervals marked by ICT Macros. These periods are when price volatility increases, and traders can use these moments to enter or exit trades.
For example, if sell-side liquidity is drained and the market fills an imbalance, the price might move toward buy-side liquidity. By identifying these moments, which may also involve breaking a previous high or low, you can leverage rapid market fluctuations to your advantage.
🟣 Identifying Liquidity and Price Imbalances
One of the important uses of ICT Macros is identifying points where the market is seeking liquidity and correcting imbalances. You can determine high or low liquidity levels in the market before each ICT Macro, as well as Fair Value Gaps (FVG) and price imbalances that need to be filled, using them to adjust your trading strategy. This capability allows you to manage trades based on liquidity shifts or imbalance corrections without needing a bias toward a specific direction.
🔵 Settings
The ICT Macros indicator offers various customization options, allowing users to tailor it to their specific needs. Below are the main settings:
Time Zone Mode : You can select one of the following options to define how time is displayed:
UTC : For traders who need to work with Universal Time.
Session Local Time : The local time corresponding to the London or New York markets.
Your Time Zone : You can specify your own time zone (e.g., "UTC-4:00").
Your Time Zone : If you choose "Your Time Zone," you can set your specific time zone. By default, this is set to UTC-4:00.
Show Range Time : This option allows you to display the time range of each session on the chart. If enabled, the exact start and end times of each interval are shown.
Show or Hide Time Ranges : Toggle on/off for visual clarity depending on user preference.
Custom Colors : Set distinct colors for each session, allowing users to personalize their chart based on their trading style.These settings allow you to adjust the key time intervals of each trading session to your preference and customize the time format according to your own needs.
🔵 Conclusion
The ICT Macros indicator is a powerful tool for traders, helping them to identify key time intervals where the market seeks liquidity or fills Fair Value Gaps (FVG), corrects imbalances, and breaks highs or lows. This tool is especially valuable for traders using liquidity-based strategies such as ICT 2022 or Silver Bullet.
One of the key features of this indicator is its support for Daylight Saving Time (DST), ensuring you are always in sync with the correct trading session timings without manual adjustments. This is particularly beneficial for traders operating across different time zones.
With ICT Macros, you can capitalize on crucial market opportunities during sensitive times, take advantage of imbalances, and enhance your trading strategies based on market volatility, liquidity shifts, and Fair Value Gaps.
Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-based Stop Loss and Take ProfitThe "Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit" is designed to identify buying opportunities after the German and US markets open. It combines various technical indicators to filter entry signals, focusing on breakout moments following price lateralization periods.
Key Components and Their Interaction:
Bollinger Bands (BB):
Description: Uses BB with a 14-period length and standard deviation multiplier of 1.5, creating narrower bands for lower timeframes.
Role in the Strategy: Identifies low volatility phases (lateralization). The lateralization condition is met when the price is near the simple moving average of the BB, suggesting an imminent increase in volatility.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
10-period EMA: Quickly detects short-term trend direction.
200-period EMA: Filters long-term trends, ensuring entries occur in a bullish market.
Interaction: Positions are entered only if the price is above both EMAs, indicating a consolidated positive trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Description: 7-period RSI with a threshold above 30.
Role in the Strategy: Confirms the market is not oversold, supporting the validity of the buy signal.
Average Directional Index (ADX):
Description: 7-period ADX with 7-period smoothing and a threshold above 10.
Role in the Strategy: Assesses trend strength. An ADX above 10 indicates sufficient momentum to justify entry.
Average True Range (ATR) for Dynamic Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Description: 14-period ATR with multipliers of 2.0 for Stop Loss and 4.0 for Take Profit.
Role in the Strategy: Adjusts exit levels based on current volatility, enhancing risk management.
Resistance Identification and Breakout:
Description: Analyzes the highs of the last 20 candles to identify resistance levels with at least two touches.
Role in the Strategy: A breakout above this level signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
Time Filters and Market Conditions:
Trading Hours: Operates only during the opening of the German market (8:00 - 12:00) and US market (15:30 - 19:00).
Panic Candle: The current candle must close negative, leveraging potential emotional reactions in the market.
Avoiding Entry During Pullbacks:
Description: Checks that the two previous candles are not both bearish.
Role in the Strategy: Avoids entering during a potential pullback, improving trade success probability.
Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit
The "Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit" is designed to identify buying opportunities after the German and US markets open. It combines various technical indicators to filter entry signals, focusing on breakout moments following price lateralization periods.
Key Components and Their Interaction:
Bollinger Bands (BB):
Description: Uses BB with a 14-period length and standard deviation multiplier of 1.5, creating narrower bands for lower timeframes.
Role in the Strategy: Identifies low volatility phases (lateralization). The lateralization condition is met when the price is near the simple moving average of the BB, suggesting an imminent increase in volatility.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
10-period EMA: Quickly detects short-term trend direction.
200-period EMA: Filters long-term trends, ensuring entries occur in a bullish market.
Interaction: Positions are entered only if the price is above both EMAs, indicating a consolidated positive trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Description: 7-period RSI with a threshold above 30.
Role in the Strategy: Confirms the market is not oversold, supporting the validity of the buy signal.
Average Directional Index (ADX):
Description: 7-period ADX with 7-period smoothing and a threshold above 10.
Role in the Strategy: Assesses trend strength. An ADX above 10 indicates sufficient momentum to justify entry.
Average True Range (ATR) for Dynamic Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Description: 14-period ATR with multipliers of 2.0 for Stop Loss and 4.0 for Take Profit.
Role in the Strategy: Adjusts exit levels based on current volatility, enhancing risk management.
Resistance Identification and Breakout:
Description: Analyzes the highs of the last 20 candles to identify resistance levels with at least two touches.
Role in the Strategy: A breakout above this level signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
Time Filters and Market Conditions:
Trading Hours: Operates only during the opening of the German market (8:00 - 12:00) and US market (15:30 - 19:00).
Panic Candle: The current candle must close negative, leveraging potential emotional reactions in the market.
Avoiding Entry During Pullbacks:
Description: Checks that the two previous candles are not both bearish.
Role in the Strategy: Avoids entering during a potential pullback, improving trade success probability.
Entry and Exit Conditions:
Long Entry:
The price breaks above the identified resistance.
The market is in a lateralization phase with low volatility.
The price is above the 10 and 200-period EMAs.
RSI is above 30, and ADX is above 10.
No short-term downtrend is detected.
The last two candles are not both bearish.
The current candle is a "panic candle" (negative close).
Order Execution: The order is executed at the close of the candle that meets all conditions.
Exit from Position:
Dynamic Stop Loss: Set at 2 times the ATR below the entry price.
Dynamic Take Profit: Set at 4 times the ATR above the entry price.
The position is automatically closed upon reaching the Stop Loss or Take Profit.
How to Use the Strategy:
Application on Volatile Instruments:
Ideal for financial instruments that show significant volatility during the target market opening hours, such as indices or major forex pairs.
Recommended Timeframes:
Intraday timeframes, such as 5 or 15 minutes, to capture significant post-open moves.
Parameter Customization:
The default parameters are optimized but can be adjusted based on individual preferences and the instrument analyzed.
Backtesting and Optimization:
Backtesting is recommended to evaluate performance and make adjustments if necessary.
Risk Management:
Ensure position sizing respects risk management rules, avoiding risking more than 1-2% of capital per trade.
Originality and Benefits of the Strategy:
Unique Combination of Indicators: Integrates various technical metrics to filter signals, reducing false positives.
Volatility Adaptability: The use of ATR for Stop Loss and Take Profit allows the strategy to adapt to real-time market conditions.
Focus on Post-Lateralization Breakout: Aims to capitalize on significant moves following consolidation periods, often associated with strong directional trends.
Important Notes:
Commissions and Slippage: Include commissions and slippage in settings for more realistic simulations.
Capital Size: Use a realistic trading capital for the average user.
Number of Trades: Ensure backtesting covers a sufficient number of trades to validate the strategy (ideally more than 100 trades).
Warning: Past results do not guarantee future performance. The strategy should be used as part of a comprehensive trading approach.
With this strategy, traders can identify and exploit specific market opportunities supported by a robust set of technical indicators and filters, potentially enhancing their trading decisions during key times of the day.
AnyTimeAndPrice
This indicator allows users to input a specific start time and display the price of a lower timeframe on a higher timeframe chart. It offers customization options for:
- Display name
- Label color
- Line extension
By adding multiple instances of the AnyTimeframeTimeAndPrice indicator, each customized for different times and prices, you can create a powerful and flexible tool for analyzing market data. Here's a potential setup:
1. Instance 1:
- Time: 08:23
- Price: Open
- Display Name: "8:23 Open"
- Label Color: Green
2. Instance 2:
- Time: 12:47
- Price: High
- Display Name: "12:47 High"
- Label Color: Red
3. Instance 3:
- Time: 15:19
- Price: Low
- Display Name: "3:19 Low"
- Label Color: Blue
4. Instance 4:
- Time: 16:53
- Price: Close
- Display Name: "4:53 Close"
- Label Color: Yellow
By having multiple instances, you can:
- Track different times and prices on the same chart
- Customize the display names, label colors, and line extensions for each instance
- Easily compare and analyze the relationships between different times and prices
This setup can be particularly useful for:
- Identifying key levels and support/resistance areas
- Analyzing market trends and patterns
- Making more informed trading decisions
Inputs:
1. AnyStartHour: Integer input for the start hour (default: 09, range: 0-23)
2. AnyStartMinute: Integer input for the start minute (default: 30, range: 0-59)
3. Sourcename: String input for the display name (default: "Open", options: "Open", "Close", "High", "Low")
4. Src_col: Color input for the label color (default: aqua)
5. linetimeExtMulti: Integer input for the line time extension (default: 1, range: 1-5)
Calculations:
1. AnyinputStartTime: Timestamp for the input start time
2. inputhour and inputminute: Hour and minute components of the input start time
3. formattedAnyTime: Formatted string for the input start time (HH:mm)
4. currenttime: Current timestamp
5. currenthour and currentminute: Hour and minute components of the current time
6. formattedTime: Formatted string for the current time (HH:mm)
7. onTime and okTime: Boolean flags for checking if the current time matches the input start time or is within the session
8. firstbartime: Timestamp for the first bar of the session
9. dailyminutesfromSource: Calculation for the daily minutes from the source
10. anyminSrcArray: Request security lower timeframe array for the source
11. ltf (lower timeframe): Integer variable for tracking the lower timeframe
12. Sourcevalue: Float variable for storing the source value
13. linetimeExt: Integer variable for line extension (calculated from linetimeExtMulti)
Logic:
1. Check if the current time matches the input start time or is within the session
2. If true, plot a line and label with the source value and formatted time
3. If not, check if the current time is within the daily session and plot a line and label accordingly
Notes:
- The script uses request.security_lower_tf to request data from a lower timeframe
- The script uses line.new and label.new to plot lines and labels on the chart
- The script uses str.format_time to format timestamps as strings (HH:mm)
- The script uses xloc.bar_time to position lines and labels at the bar time
This script allows users to input a specific start time and display the price of a lower timeframe on a higher timeframe chart, with options for customizing the display name, label color, and line extension.
Support line based on RSIThis indicator builds a support line using the stock price and RSI.
Inputs:
1. Time window for the RSI:
the time window the RSI is calculated with, usually it's 14 but in here I recommend 30.
2. offset by percentage:
just adding or subtructing some percentage of the result, some stocks need a bit of offset to work
3. stability:
the higher it is the less the RSI effects the graph. for realy high stability the indicator the the stock price will be realy close.
formula: (close*(100-newRSI)/50)*(100+offset)/100
when:
newRSI = (RSI + (50 * stability1))/(stability+1)
recommended usage:
Usually, if the indicator becomes higher than the price, (the price lowers). the stock will go up again to around the last price where they met.
so, for example, if the stock price was 20 and going down. while the indicator was 18 and going up, then they met at 19 and later the indicator became 20 while the stock fell to 18. most chances are that the stock will come back to 19 where they met and at the same time the indicator will also get to 19.
In stocks that are unstable, like NVDA. this indicator can be used to see the trend and avoid the unstability of the stock.
Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • SignificanceThe Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • Significance publication aims to provide a tool for combining different conditions and checking whether the outcome is significant using the Chi-Square Test and P-value.
🔶 USAGE
The basic principle is to compare two or more groups and check the results of a query test, such as asking men and women whether they want to see a romantic or non-romantic movie.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| | ROMANTIC | NON-ROMANTIC | ⬅︎ MOVIE |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| MEN | 2 | 8 | 10 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| WOMEN | 7 | 3 | 10 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
|⬆︎ SEX | 10 | 10 | 20 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
We calculate the Chi-Square Formula, which is:
Χ² = Σ ( (Observed Value − Expected Value)² / Expected Value )
In this publication, this is:
chiSquare = 0.
for i = 0 to rows -1
for j = 0 to colums -1
observedValue = aBin.get(i).aFloat.get(j)
expectedValue = math.max(1e-12, aBin.get(i).aFloat.get(colums) * aBin.get(rows).aFloat.get(j) / sumT) //Division by 0 protection
chiSquare += math.pow(observedValue - expectedValue, 2) / expectedValue
Together with the 'Degree of Freedom', which is (rows − 1) × (columns − 1) , the P-value can be calculated.
In this case it is P-value: 0.02462
A P-value lower than 0.05 is considered to be significant. Statistically, women tend to choose a romantic movie more, while men prefer a non-romantic one.
Users have the option to choose a P-value, calculated from a standard table or through a math.ucla.edu - Javascript-based function (see references below).
Note that the population (10 men + 10 women = 20) is small, something to consider.
Either way, this principle is applied in the script, where conditions can be chosen like rsi, close, high, ...
🔹 CONDITION
Conditions are added to the left column ('CONDITION')
For example, previous rsi values (rsi ) between 0-100, divided in separate groups
🔹 CLOSE
Then, the movement of the last close is evaluated
UP when close is higher then previous close (close )
DOWN when close is lower then previous close
EQUAL when close is equal then previous close
It is also possible to use only 2 columns by adding EQUAL to UP or DOWN
UP
DOWN/EQUAL
or
UP/EQUAL
DOWN
In other words, when previous rsi value was between 80 and 90, this resulted in:
19 times a current close higher than previous close
14 times a current close lower than previous close
0 times a current close equal than previous close
However, the P-value tells us it is not statistical significant.
NOTE: Always keep in mind that past behaviour gives no certainty about future behaviour.
A vertical line is drawn at the beginning of the chosen population (max 4990)
Here, the results seem significant.
🔹 GROUPS
It is important to ensure that the groups are formed correctly. All possibilities should be present, and conditions should only be part of 1 group.
In the example above, the two top situations are acceptable; close against close can only be higher, lower or equal.
The two examples at the bottom, however, are very poorly constructed.
Several conditions can be placed in more than 1 group, and some conditions are not integrated into a group. Even if the results are significant, they are useless because of the group formation.
A population count is added as an aid to spot errors in group formation.
In this example, there is a discrepancy between the population and total count due to the absence of a condition.
The results when rsi was between 5-25 are not included, resulting in unreliable results.
🔹 PRACTICAL EXAMPLES
In this example, we have specific groups where the condition only applies to that group.
For example, the condition rsi > 55 and rsi <= 65 isn't true in another group.
Also, every possible rsi value (0 - 100) is present in 1 of the groups.
rsi > 15 and rsi <= 25 28 times UP, 19 times DOWN and 2 times EQUAL. P-value: 0.01171
When looking in detail and examining the area 15-25 RSI, we see this:
The population is now not representative (only checking for RSI between 15-25; all other RSI values are not included), so we can ignore the P-value in this case. It is merely to check in detail. In this case, the RSI values 23 and 24 seem promising.
NOTE: We should check what the close price did without any condition.
If, for example, the close price had risen 100 times out of 100, this would make things very relative.
In this case (at least two conditions need to be present), we set 1 condition at 'always true' and another at 'always false' so we'll get only the close values without any condition:
Changing the population or the conditions will change the P-value.
In the following example, the outcome is evaluated when:
close value from 1 bar back is higher than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is lower/equal than the close value from 2 bars back
Or:
close value from 1 bar back is higher than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is equal than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is lower than the close value from 2 bars back
In both examples, all possibilities of close against close are included in the calculations. close can only by higher, equal or lower than close
Both examples have the results without a condition included (5 = 5 and 5 < 5) so one can compare the direction of current close.
🔶 NOTES
• Always keep in mind that:
Past behaviour gives no certainty about future behaviour.
Everything depends on time, cycles, events, fundamentals, technicals, ...
• This test only works for categorical data (data in categories), such as Gender {Men, Women} or color {Red, Yellow, Green, Blue} etc., but not numerical data such as height or weight. One might argue that such tests shouldn't use rsi, close, ... values.
• Consider what you're measuring
For example rsi of the current bar will always lead to a close higher than the previous close, since this is inherent to the rsi calculations.
• Be careful; often, there are na -values at the beginning of the series, which are not included in the calculations!
• Always keep in mind considering what the close price did without any condition
• The numbers must be large enough. Each entry must be five or more. In other words, it is vital to make the 'population' large enough.
• The code can be developed further, for example, by splitting UP, DOWN in close UP 1-2%, close UP 2-3%, close UP 3-4%, ...
• rsi can be supplemented with stochRSI, MFI, sma, ema, ...
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Population
• Choose the population size; in other words, how many bars you want to go back to. If fewer bars are available than set, this will be automatically adjusted.
🔹 Inputs
At least two conditions need to be chosen.
• Users can add up to 11 conditions, where each condition can contain two different conditions.
🔹 RSI
• Length
🔹 Levels
• Set the used levels as desired.
🔹 Levels
• P-value: P-value retrieved using a standard table method or a function.
• Used function, derived from Chi-Square Distribution Function; JavaScript
LogGamma(Z) =>
S = 1
+ 76.18009173 / Z
- 86.50532033 / (Z+1)
+ 24.01409822 / (Z+2)
- 1.231739516 / (Z+3)
+ 0.00120858003 / (Z+4)
- 0.00000536382 / (Z+5)
(Z-.5) * math.log(Z+4.5) - (Z+4.5) + math.log(S * 2.50662827465)
Gcf(float X, A) => // Good for X > A +1
A0=0., B0=1., A1=1., B1=X, AOLD=0., N=0
while (math.abs((A1-AOLD)/A1) > .00001)
AOLD := A1
N += 1
A0 := A1+(N-A)*A0
B0 := B1+(N-A)*B0
A1 := X*A0+N*A1
B1 := X*B0+N*B1
A0 := A0/B1
B0 := B0/B1
A1 := A1/B1
B1 := 1
Prob = math.exp(A * math.log(X) - X - LogGamma(A)) * A1
1 - Prob
Gser(X, A) => // Good for X < A +1
T9 = 1. / A
G = T9
I = 1
while (T9 > G* 0.00001)
T9 := T9 * X / (A + I)
G := G + T9
I += 1
G *= math.exp(A * math.log(X) - X - LogGamma(A))
Gammacdf(x, a) =>
GI = 0.
if (x<=0)
GI := 0
else if (x
Chisqcdf = Gammacdf(Z/2, DF/2)
Chisqcdf := math.round(Chisqcdf * 100000) / 100000
pValue = 1 - Chisqcdf
🔶 REFERENCES
mathsisfun.com, Chi-Square Test
Chi-Square Distribution Function
Enhanced McClellan Summation Index
The Enhanced McClellan Summation Index (MSI) is a comprehensive tool that transforms the MSI indicator with Heikin-Ashi visualization, offering improved trend analysis and momentum insights. This indicator includes MACD and it's histogram calculations to refine trend signals, minimize false positives and offer additional momentum analysis.
Methodology:
McClellan Summation Index (MSI) -
The MSI begins by calculating the ratio between advancing and declining issues in the specified index.
float decl = 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘦𝘴
float adv = 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘦𝘴
float ratio = (adv - decl) / (adv + decl)
It then computes a cumulative sum of the MACD (the difference between a 19-period EMA and a 39-period EMA) of this ratio. The result is a smoothed indicator reflecting market breadth and momentum.
macd(float r) =>
ta.ema(r, 19) - ta.ema(r, 39)
float msi = ta.cum(macd(ratio))
Heikin-Ashi Transformation -
Heikin-Ashi is a technique that uses a modified candlestick formula to create a smoother representation of price action. It averages the open, close, high, and low prices of the current and previous periods. This transformation reduces noise and provides a clearer view of trends.
type bar
float o = open
float h = high
float l = low
float c = close
bar b = bar.new()
float ha_close = math.avg(b.o, b.h, b.l, b.c)
MACD and Histogram -
The Enhanced MSI incorporates MACD and histogram calculations to provide additional momentum analysis and refine trend signals. The MACD represents the difference between the 12-period EMA and the 26-period EMA of the MSI. The histogram is the visual representation of the difference between the MACD and its signal line.
Options:
Index Selection - Choose from TVC:NYA , NASDAQ:NDX , or TVC:XAX to tailor the MSI-HA to the desired market index.
MACD Settings - Adjust the parameters for the MACD calculation to fine-tune the indicator's responsiveness.
Ratio Multiplier - Apply scaling to the MSI to suit different market conditions and indices.
Benefits of Heikin-Ashi -
Smoothed Trends - Heikin-Ashi reduces market noise, providing a more apparent and smoothed representation of trends.
Clearer Patterns - Candlestick patterns are more distinct, aiding in the identification of trend reversals and continuations.
Utility and Use Cases:
Trend & Momentum Analysis - Utilize the tool's Heikin-Ashi visualization for clearer trend identification in confluence with it's MACD and histogram to gain additional insights into the strength and direction of trends, while filtering out potential false positives.
Breadth Analysis - Explore market breadth through the MSI's cumulative breadth indicator, gauging the overall health and strength of the underlying market.
- Alerts Setup Guide -
The Enhanced MSI is a robust indicator that combines the breadth analysis of the McClellan Summation Index with the clarity of Heikin-Ashi visualization and additional momentum insights from MACD and histogram calculations. Its customization options make it adaptable to various indices and market conditions, offering traders a comprehensive tool for trend and momentum analysis.
Strategy for UT Bot Alerts indicator Using the UT Bot alerts indicator by @QuantNomad, this strategy was designed for showing an example of how this indicator could be used, also, it has the goal to help some people from a group that use to use this indicator for their trading. Under any circumstance I recommend to use it without testing it before in real time.
Backtesting context: 2020-02-05 to 2023-02-25 of BTCUSD 4H by Tvc. Commissions: 0.03% for each entry, 0.03% for each exit. Risk per trade: 2.5% of the total account
For this strategy, 3 indicators are used:
UT Bot Alerts indicator by Quantnomad
One Ema of 200 periods for indicate the trend
Atr stop loss from Gatherio
Trade conditions:
For longs:
Close price is higher than Atr from UT Bot
Ema from UT Bot cross over Atr from UT Bot.
This gives us our long signal. Stop loss will be determined by atr stop loss (white point), break even(blue point) by a risk/reward ratio of 0.75:1 and take profit of 3:1 where half position will be closed. This will be showed as buy (open long position)
The other half will be closed when close price is lower than Atr and Ema from UT Bot cross under Atr. This will be showed as cl buy (close long position)
For shorts:
Close price is lower than Atr from UT Bot
Ema from UT Bot cross over Atr from UT Bot.
This gives us our short signal. Stop loss will be determined by atr stop loss (white point), break even(blue point) by a risk/reward ratio of 0.75:1 and take profit of 3:1 where half position will be closed. This will be showed as sell (open short position)
The other half will be closed when close price is higher than Atr and Ema from UT Bot cross over Atr. This will be showed as cl sell (close short position)
Risk management
For calculate the amount of the position you will use just a small percent of your initial capital for the strategy and you will use the atr stop loss for this.
Example: You have 1000 usd and you just want to risk 2,5% of your account, there is a long signal at price of 20,000 usd. The stop loss price from atr stop loss is 19,000. You calculate the distance in percent between 20,000 and 19,000. In this case, that distance would be of 5,0%. Then, you calculate your position by this way: (initial or current capital * risk per trade of your account) / (stop loss distance).
Using these values on the formula: (1000*2,5%)/(5,0%) = 500usd. It means, you have to use 500 usd for risking 2.5% of your account.
We will use this risk management for apply compound interest.
In settings, with position amount calculator, you can enter the amount in usd of your account and the amount in percentage for risking per trade of the account. You will see this value in green color in the upper left corner that shows the amount in usd to use for risking the specific percentage of your account.
Script functions
Inside of settings, you will find some utilities for display atr stop loss, break evens, positions, signals, indicators, etc.
You will find the settings for risk management at the end of the script if you want to change something. But rebember, do not change values from indicators, the idea is to not over optimize the strategy.
If you want to change the initial capital for backtest the strategy, go to properties, and also enter the commisions of your exchange and slippage for more realistic results.
In risk managment you can find an option called "Use leverage ?", activate this if you want to backtest using leverage, which means that in case of not having enough money for risking the % determined by you of your account using your initial capital, you will use leverage for using the enough amount for risking that % of your acount in a buy position. Otherwise, the amount will be limited by your initial/current capital
---> Do not forget to deactivate Trades on chart option in style settings for a cleaner look of the chart <---
Some things to consider
USE UNDER YOUR OWN RISK. PAST RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT THE FUTURE.
DEPENDING OF % ACCOUNT RISK PER TRADE, YOU COULD REQUIRE LEVERAGE FOR OPEN SOME POSITIONS, SO PLEASE, BE CAREFULL AND USE CORRECTLY THE RISK MANAGEMENT
Do not forget to change commissions and other parameters related with back testing results!
Strategies for trending markets use to have more looses than wins and it takes a long time to get profits, so do not forget to be patient and consistent !
---> The strategy can still be improved, you can change some parameters depending of the asset and timeframe like risk/reward for taking profits, for break even, also the main parameters of the UT Bot Alerts <----
Simple SuperTrend Strategy for BTCUSD 4HHello guys!, If you are a swing trader and you are looking for a simple trend strategy, you should check this one. Based in the supertrend indicator, this strategy will help you to catch big movements in BTCUSD 4H and avoid losses as much as possible in consolidated situations of the market
This strategy was designed for BTCUSD in 4H timeframe
Backtesting context: 2020-01-02 to 2023-01-05 (The strategy has also worked in previous years)
Trade conditions:
Rules are actually simple, the most important thing is the risk and position management of this strategy
For long:
Once Supertrend changes from a downtrend to a uptrend, you enter into a long position. The stop loss will be defined by the atr stop loss
The first profit will be of 0.75 risk/reward ratio where half position will be closed. When this happens, you move the stop loss to break even.
Now, just will be there two situations:
Once Supertrend changes from a uptrend to a downtrend, you close the other half of the initial long position.
If price goes againts the position, the position will be closed due to breakeven.
For short:
Once Supertrend changes from a uptrend to a downtrend, you enter into a short position. The stop loss will be defined by the atr stop loss
The first profit will be of 0.75 risk/reward ratio where half position will be closed. When this happens, you move the stop loss to break even.
Like in the long position, just will be there two situations:
Once Supertrend changes from a downtrend to a uptrend, you close the other half of the initial short position.
If price goes againts the position, the position will be closed due to breakeven.
Risk management
For calculate the amount of the position you will use just a small percent of your initial capital for the strategy and you will use the atr stop loss for this.
Example: You have 1000 usd and you just want to risk 2,5% of your account, there is a long signal at price of 20,000 usd. The stop loss price from atr stop loss is 19,000. You calculate the distance in percent between 20,000 and 19,000. In this case, that distance would be of 5,0%. Then, you calculate your position by this way: (initial or current capital * risk per trade of your account) / (stop loss distance).
Using these values on the formula: (1000*2,5%)/(5,0%) = 500usd. It means, you have to use 500 usd for risking 2.5% of your account.
We will use this risk management for apply compound interest.
Script functions
Inside of settings, you will find some utilities for display atr stop loss, supertrend or positions.
You will find the settings for risk management at the end of the script if you want to change something. But rebember, do not change values from indicators, the idea is to not over optimize the strategy.
If you want to change the initial capital for backtest the strategy, go to properties, and also enter the commisions of your exchange and slippage for more realistic results.
Signals meanings:
L for long position. CL for close long position.
S for short position. CS for close short position.
Tp for take profit (it also appears when the position is closed due to stop loss, this due to the script uses two kind of positions)
Exit due to break even or due to stop loss
Some things to consider
USE UNDER YOUR OWN RISK. PAST RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT THE FUTURE.
DEPENDING OF % ACCOUNT RISK PER TRADE, YOU COULD REQUIRE LEVERAGE FOR OPEN SOME POSITIONS, SO PLEASE, BE CAREFULL AND USE CORRECTLY THE RISK MANAGEMENT
The amount of trades closed in the backtest are not exactly the real ones. If you want to know the real ones, go to settings and change % of trade for first take profit to 100 for getting the real ones. In the backtest, the real amount of opened trades was of 194.
Indicators used:
Supertrend
Atr stop loss by garethyeo
This is the fist strategy that I publish in tradingview, I will be glad with you for any suggestion, support or advice for future scripts. Do not doubt in make any question you have and if you liked this content, leave a boost. I plan to bring more strategies and useful content for you!
Prime, E & PI Superiority CyclesIf you have been studying the markets long enough you will probably have noticed a certain pattern. Whichever trade entry/exit logic you try to use, it will go through phases of working really well and phases where it doesn't work at all. This is the markets way of ensuring anyone who sticks to an oversimplified, one-dimensional strategy will not profit. Superiority cycles are a method I devised by which code interrogates the nature of where price has been pivoting in relation to three key structures, the Prime Frame, E Frame and Pi Frame which are plotted as horizontal lines at these values:
* Use script on 1 minute chart ONLY
prime numbers up to 100: 2.0,3.0,5.0,7.0,11.0,13.0,17.0,19.0,23.0,27.0,29.0,31.0,37.0,41.0,43.0,47.0,53.0,59.0,61.0,67.0,71.0,73.0,79.0,83.0,89.0,97.0
multiples of e up to 100: 2.71828, 5.43656, 8.15484, 10.87312, 13.5914, 16.30968, 19.02796, 21.74624, 24.46452, 27.1828, 29.90108, 32.61936, 35.33764,
38.05592, 40.7742, 43.49248, 46.21076, 48.92904, 51.64732, 54.3656, 57.08388, 59.80216, 62.52044, 65.23872, 67.957, 70.67528, 73.39356000000001, 76.11184,
78.83012, 81.5484, 84.26668000000001, 86.98496, 89.70324, 92.42152, 95.13980000000001, 97.85808
multiples of pi up to 100: 3.14159, 6.28318, 9.424769999999999, 12.56636, 15.70795, 18.849539999999998, 21.99113, 25.13272, 28.27431, 31.4159, 34.55749,
37.699079999999995, 40.840669999999996, 43.98226, 47.12385, 50.26544, 53.40703, 56.54862, 59.69021, 62.8318, 65.97339, 69.11498, 72.25657, 75.39815999999999,
78.53975, 81.68133999999999, 84.82293, 87.96452, 91.10611, 94.2477, 97.38929
These values are iterated up the chart as seen below:
The script sums the distance of pivots to each of the respective frames (olive lines for Prime Frame, green lines for E Frame and maroon lines for Pi Frame) and determines which frame price has been reacting to in the least significant way. The worst performing frame is the next frame we target reversals at. The table in the bottom right will light up a color that corresponds to the frame color we should target.
Here is an example of Prime Superiority, where we prioritize trading from prime levels:
The table and the background color are both olive which means target prime levels. In an ideal world strong moves should start and finish where the white flags are placed i.e. in this case $17k and $19k. The reason these levels are 17,000 and 19,000 and not just 17 and 19 like in the original prime number sequence is due to the scaling code in the get_scale_func() which allows the code to operate on all assets.
This is E Superiority where we would hope to see major reversals at green lines:
This is Pi Superiority where we would hope to see major reversals at maroon lines:
And finally I would like to show you a market moving from one superiority to another. This can be observed by the bgcolor which tells us what the superiority was at every historical minute
Pi Frame Superiority into E Frame Superiority example:
Prime Frame Superiority into E Frame Superiority example:
Prime Frame Superiority into Pi Frame Superiority example:
By rotating the analysis we use to enter trades in this way we hope to hide our strategy better from market makers and artificial intelligence, and overall make greater profits.
Average Daily Range Lines + VWAP by TenozenOANDA:EURUSD
Hello! I created an indicator called ADRL (Average Daily Range Lines). This is my first original work, and I hope it's helpful to you guys.
1. Let me explain a bit of how it works...
So first of I need the ADR value, as by default length I use 19 for it. I want this indicator to calculate every start of the new day and break if another new day starts, so if the target level isn't reached, then the value would start to go back to 0 and get the new target level of the day. The target level is based on the first ADR multiplied by how much "percent" we want for the target level to hit, based on the first ADR value of the day. When the new day starts, the algo would start to add up the ADR value. If the added ADR hits the target level, it starts to plot a line by the candlestick by its high, low, and mid-level; it would create a new line if there is a new target being hit. So that's it.
About the VWAP, I took Tradingview's VWAP. I added the anchored part so I can plot a line if there is a new target level being hit. I hope that's okay.
2. How to use it...
- Using this indicator is pretty easy. When a new box is being plotted, that means that's the time when you should trade, as the box is still fresh. The VWAP helps if the market is trending or not.
- You can treat this indicator just like an S&R, as the price tends to respect the box. So best to use it as a pullback trade.
- We can assume if the price above the box, is a buy; vice versa.
3. Best Market to use...
- I suggest a trade in a nonvolatile market. The more volatile the market is, the harder the box is to be respected by the price. But if you really want to trade in that market, I suggest adjusting the inputs by how the box is being respected.
4. Suggestions...
- Use this indicator in 5 minutes chart if you day trade.
- Try using 30 minutes and setting the percent input from 100 to 80 and changing the ADR length from 19 to 14, this is much more suitable if you tend to hold trades.
Nasdaq 100 ScreenerNasdaq 100 screener is comprehensive table displaying the following parameters :
Op = Open Price of the Day.
LaP = Last Price.
O-L = Open Price of the Day - Last Price.
ROC = Rate of Change .
SMA20 = Simple Moving Average 20 period.
S20d = Last Price - SMA 20.
SMA50 = Simple Moving Average 50 period.
S50d = Last Price - SMA 50.
SMA200 = Simple Moving Average 200 period.
S200d = Last Price - SMA 200.
ADX(14) = Average Directional Index.
RSI(14) = Relative Strength Index.
CCI(20) = Commodity Channel Index.
ATR(14) = Average True Range.
MOM(10) = Momentum.
AcDis(K) = Accumulation/Distribution.
CMF(20) = Chaikin Money Flow.
MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence.
Sig = MACD signal.
Nasdaq 100 stocks are divided into following alphabetical grouping for input access purpose under “Options” in “Settings” menu.
A to B 21 stocks “Input symbols” are listed under the “Options” in “Input A to B”
C to E 18 stocks “Input symbols” are listed under the head “Options” in “Input C to E”
F to L 19 stocks “Input symbols” are listed under the head “Options” in “Input F to L”
M to P 22 stocks “Input symbols” are listed under the head “Options” in “Input M to P”
R to Z 20 stocks “Input symbols” are listed under the head “Options” in “Input R to Z”
A to Z 100 stocks “Input symbols” are listed under the head “Options” in “Input A to Z”
User after visiting the “Settings” menu simply is required to select the “input symbol” from the stock listed under respective alphabetical Input lists to which the particular stock belongs. The resultant data is tabulated under respective row in Table .At a time User can see 5 different stocks i.e one each in different alphabetical lists in respective alphabetical order rows stated in the Table. User can scroll in each list to access and shift to any other stock in the list. In addition a Master list of all 100 stocks is given under “ Input A to Z “ at the last row of table.
Nasdaq 100 screener is a simple table , which facilitate to view 6 different stocks at a time (inclusive one from Master list of “Input A to Z” with a display of 19 parameters.
Fast v Slow Moving Averages Strategy (Variable) [divonn1994]This is a simple moving average based strategy that takes 2 moving averages, a Fast and a Slow one, plots them both, and then decides to enter a 'long' position or exit it based on whether the two lines have crossed each other. It goes 'long when the Fast Moving Average crosses above the Slow Moving Average. This could indicate upwards momentum in prices in the future. It then exits the position when the the Fast Moving Average crosses back below. This could indicate downwards momentum in prices in the future. This is only speculative, though, but sometimes it can be a very good indicator/strategy to predict future action.
I've tried some strategy settings and I found different promising strategies. Here are a few:
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : EMA, Fast length 25 bars, Slow length 62 bars => 28,792x net profit (default)
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : VWMA, Fast length 21 bars, Slow length 60 bars => 15,603x net profit
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : SMA, Fast length 18 bars, Slow length 51 bars => 19,507x net profit
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : RMA, Fast length 20 bars, Slow length 52 bars => 5,729x net profit
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : WMA, Fast length 29 bars, Slow length 60 bars => 19,869x net profit
Features:
-You can choose your preferred moving average: SMA , EMA , WMA , RMA & VWMA .
-You can change the length average for each moving average
-I made the background color Green when you're currently in a long position and Red when not. I made it so you can see when you'd be actively in a trade or not. The Red and Green background colors can be toggled on/off in order to see other indicators more clearly overlayed in the chart, or if you prefer a cleaner look on your charts.
-I also have a plot of the Fast moving average and Slow moving average together. The Opening moving average is Purple, the Closing moving average is White. White on top is a sign of a potential upswing and purple on top is a sign of a potential downswing. I've made this also able to be toggled on/off.
Let me know if you think I should change anything with my script, I'm always open to constructive criticism so feel free to comment below :)
Rollover LTEThis indicator shows where price needs to be and when in order to cause the 20-sma and 50-sma moving averages to change directions. A change in direction requires the slope of a moving average to change from negative to positive or from positive to negative. When a moving average changes direction, it can be said that it has “rolled over” or “rolled up,” with the latter only applying if slope went from negative to positive.
Theory:
In order to solve for the price of the current bar that will cause the moving average to roll up, the slope from the previous bar’s average to the current bar’s average must be set equal to zero which is to say that the averages must be the same.
For the 20-sma, the equation simply stated in words is as follows:
Current MA as a function of current price and previous 19 values = previous MA which is fixed based on previous 20 values
The denominators which are both 20 cancel and the previous 19 values cancel. What’s left is current price on the left side and the value from 20 bars ago on the right.
Current price = value from 20 bars ago
and since the equation was set up for solving for the price of the current bar that will cause the MA to roll over
Rollover price = value from 20 bars ago
This makes plotting rollover price, both current and forecasted, fairly simple, as it’s merely the closing price plotted with an offset to the right the same distance as the moving average length.
Application:
The 20-sma and 50-sma rollover prices are plotted because they are considered to be the two most important moving averages for rollover analysis. Moving average lengths can be modified in the indicator settings. The 20-sma and 20-sma rollover price are both plotted in white and the 50-sma and 50-sma rollover price are both plotted in blue. There are two rollover prices because the 20-sma rollover price is the price that will cause the 20-sma to roll over and the 50-sma rollover price is the price that will cause the 50-sma to roll over. The one that's vertically furthest away from the current price is the one that will cause both to rollover, as should become clearer upon reading the explanation below.
The distance between the current price and the 20-sma rollover price is referred to as the “rollover strength” of the price relative to the 20-sma. A large disparity between the current price and the rollover price suggests bearishness (negative rollover strength) if the rollover price is overhead because price would need to travel all that distance in order to cause the moving average to roll up. If the rollover price and price are converging, as is often the case, a change in moving average and price direction becomes more plausible. The rollover strengths of the 20-sma and 50-sma are added together to calculate the Rollover Strength and if a negative number is the result then the background color of the plot cloud turns red. If the result is positive, it turns green. Rollover Strength is plotted below price as a separate indicator in this publication for reference only and it's not part of this indicator. It does not look much different from momentum indicators. The code is below if anybody wants to try to use it. The important thing is that the distances between the rollover prices and the price action are kept in mind as having shrinking, growing, or neutral bearish and bullish effects on current and forecasted price direction. Trades should not be entered based on cloud colorization changes alone.
If you are about to crash into a wall of the 20-sma rollover price, as is indicated on the chart by the green arrow, you might consider going long so long as the rollover strength, both current and forecasted, of the 50-sma isn’t questionably bearish. This is subject to analysis and interpretation. There was a 20-sma rollover wall as indicated with yellow arrow, but the bearish rollover strength of the 50-sma was growing and forecasted to remain strong for a while at that time so a long entry would have not been suggested by both rollover prices. If you are about to crash into both the 20-sma and 50-sma rollover prices at the same time (not shown on this chart), that’s a good time to place a trade in anticipation of both slopes changing direction. You may, in the case of this chart, see that a 20-sma rollover wall precedes a 50-sma rollover convergence with price and anticipate a cascade which turned out to be the case with this recent NQ rally.
Price exiting the cloud entirely to either the upside or downside has strong implications. When exiting to the downside, the 20-sma and 50-sma have both rolled over and price is below both of them. The same is true for upside exits. Re-entering the cloud after a rally may indicate a reversal is near, especially if the forecasted rollover prices, particularly the 50-sma, agree.
This indicator should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools.
Additional Notes:
The original version of this script which will not be published was much heavier, cluttered, and is not as useful. This is the light version, hence the “LTE” suffix.
LTE stands for “long-term evolution” in telecommunications, not “light.”
Bar colorization (red, yellow, and green bars) was added using the MACD Hybrid BSH script which is another script I’ve published.
If you’re not sure what a bar is, it’s the same thing as a candle or a data point on a line chart. Every vertical line showing price action on the chart above is a bar and it is a bar chart.
sma = simple moving average
Rollover Strength Script:
// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at mozilla.org
// © Skipper86
//@version=5
indicator(title="Rollover Strength", shorttitle="Rollover Strength", overlay=false)
source = input.source(close)
length1 = input.int(20, "Length 1", minval=1)
length2 = input.int(50, "Length 2", minval=1)
RolloverPrice1 = source
RolloverPrice2 = source
RolloverStrength1 = source-RolloverPrice1
RolloverStrength2 = source-RolloverPrice2
RolloverStrength = RolloverStrength1 + RolloverStrength2
Color1 = color.rgb(155, 155, 155, 0)
Color2 = color.rgb(0, 0, 200, 0)
Color3 = color.rgb(0, 200, 0, 0)
plot(RolloverStrength, title="Rollover Strength", color=Color3)
hline(0, "Middle Band", color=Color1)
//End of Rollover Strength Script
A_HMS_RSI_COMPOSITMy majic Macd Indicator with Ema base macd is My great Indicator that combine four ema base macd lines with its signal lines that show price gravity by best way , and one spatial chart that is the best part of this magic indicator that help you to trading without any problem
for better use note that:
green fill line is ema 66 and ema 199 macd and signal its name is macd very slow signal line
blue fill line is ema 19 and ema 66 macd and signal its name is macd normal signal line
red fill line is ema 9 and ema 19 macd and signal its name is macd very fast signal line
black line is ema 4 and ema 14 macd its name is macd main signal line
in all of this lines we can define divergence
when this lines crossing over and under from together each of this crossings give me some signals and because this signals very much we cant describe thats in some lines
but note that we in fact trade just by black line but short and long position determine by position of black line instead of other lines and positions of other lines from each ones
purple line is rsi line
red line is composite line
blue line is rmi line
red and Blue below line is Slow Stochastic lines
blue and orange line is Stochastic ema with ema12 - ema21
and third chart is a secret indicator that help more to determine best place to start trading
A_HMS_RSI is My great Indicator that RSI , RMI and , momentum of price movement by a histogram , that help you to trading without any problem
for better use note that:
blue line is rsi line with hl2 source and 14 length
low color line is rmi line with momentum 33
rmi of price with momentum 33 is a very good signal for long positions.
momentum histogram help us to define strong of price motion in each time
some futures is hidden by default:
composite red and green signal line
rmi of price with momentum 4
ema 13, 33 of rmi as signal line and rsi and composit
finaly u can change any colors from setting
in background we determine some filled zones for better use of Indicator
when composite line run away from histogram momentum increase rapidly
when composite and rsi line is in same way its time to get position .
rmi of price with momentum 20 is a very good signal for long positions.
some futures is hidden by default:
composite red and green signal line
rmi of price with momentum 20
ema 13, 33 of rmi as signal line
finaly u can change any colors from setting
and you can get stoch signals too
in background we determine some filled zones for better use of Indicator
Niteya Multi Ticker Dollar-Based Pricing Ver 1.3The main purpose of the indicator is to make a future price estimation based on the highest dollar-based price of the stock in the past, especially for stocks that exceed their past prices in chart currency terms. There should be no expectation that this prediction will necessarily come true.
A table with six columns and 19 rows (excluding the header) is created on the graph, positioned bottom and left.
The first column contains the ticker code, the second column contains the highest historical price of the stock in currency, the third column contains the past high price of the stock in USD, the fourth column contains the closing price, the fifth column contains the value obtained by multiplying the past highest USD price of the stock by the daily dollar price, and the sixth column is includes the rate of increase.
Using the indicator interface, you can select the ticker value in the first row of the table from among 22 different values via a selection box, and for the 18 rows below, you can directly type the ticker name.
* The currency of the chart must be compatible with the dollar conversion currency. For example, if the conversion currency is "USDTRY", the currency of the chart should be "TRY".
All stocks in the indicator are randomly selected. Investment information, stock selections, comments and recommendations herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy service is provided within the framework of investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and the customer.
Türkçe açıklama
Göstergenin temel amacı, özellikle grafik para birimi (TRY) bazında geçmiş fiyatlarının üzerine çıkmış hisselerde, hissenin geçmişteki en yüksek dolar bazlı fiyatını esas alarak, geleceğe yönelik bir fiyat tahmininde bulunmaktır. Bu tahminin mutlaka gerçekleşeceği beklentisi olmamalıdır.
Grafik üzerinde, üste ve ortalanmış olarak, altı sütun ve başlık kısmı hariç 19 satırlık bir tablo oluşturulmaktadır.
İlk sütun hisse kodunu, ikinci sütun hissenin geçmiş en yüksek fiyatını TRY olarak, üçüncü sütun hissenin geçmiş en yüksek fiyatını USD olarak, dördüncü sütun kapanış fiyatını, beşinci sütun hissenin geçmiş en yüksek USD fiyatının günlük dolar kuru ile çarpılarak elde edilen değeri, altıncı sütun ise artış oranını içerir.
Gösterge arayüzünü kullanarak, tablonun ilk satırındaki ticker (hisse) değerini 22 farklı değer arasından (BIST 100 ve 21 şirket) bir seçim kutusu yoluyla, altta yer alan 18 satır için ise, doğrudan hisse adını yazabilirsiniz.
* Grafiğin para birimi dolar çevrim kuru ile uyumlu olmalıdır. Örneğin, çevrim kuru "USDTRY" ise, grafiğin para birimi "TRY" olmalıdır.
Gösterge içinde yer alan tüm hisseler rastgele seçilmiştir. Buradaki yatırım bilgileri, hisse seçimleri, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir. Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti, aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.
Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule?
In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price.
The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio
Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
SF = stock / flow
The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC.
With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple?
Price Model
I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population.
Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF).
You can see the results in the image below:
Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13
The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association.
Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data).
ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214
If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have:
============================================
Final Equation:
■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297
Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow
============================================
If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model.
There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems.
I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart.
Estimating the range of price movements
I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands.
Residual STDEV = 0.82188
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV =>
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 =>
■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297
In the same way:
■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297
I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands:
■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297
■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297
These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels.
Estimating of the future price movements
Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future.
At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025
It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be:
BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07
Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation:
Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$
Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion.
Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice.
