[blackcat] L2 Ehlers Cyber Cycle Trading StrategyLevel: 2
Background
John F. Ehlers introuced Cyber Cycle Trading Strategy in his "Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures" chapter 4 on 2004.
Function
With cyber cycle alone, the Trigger lags the Cycle by one bar, so that their crossing introduces at least another bar of lag. Finally, Dr Ehler concluded that we can’t execute the trade until the bar after the signal is observed. In total, that means our trade execution will be at least four bars late. If we are working with an eight-bar cycle, that means the signal will be exactly wrong. We could do better to buy when the signal says sell, and vice versa.
The difficulties arising from the lag suggest a way to build an automatic trading strategy. Suppose we choose to use the trading signal in the opposite direction of the signal. That will work if we can introduce lag so the correct signal will be given in the more general case, not just the case of an eight-bar cycle. Therefore, the Cyber Cycle trading strategy was introduced by Dr. Ehlers. It starts exactly the same as the Cyber Cycle Indicator. Dr. Ehlers then introduce the variable Signal, which is an exponential moving average of the Cycle variable. The exponential moving average generates the desired lag in the trading signal. The relationship between the alpha of an exponential moving average and lag is alpha2 = 1/ (Lag+1). This relationship is used to create the variable alpha2 in the code and the variable Signal using the exponential moving average. The trading signals using the variable Signal crossing itself delayed by one bar are exactly the opposite of the trading signals I would have used if there were no delay. But, since the variable Signal is delayed such that the net delay is less than half a cycle, the trading signals are correct to catch the next cyclic reversal. The idea of betting against the correct direction by waiting for the next cycle reversal can be pretty scary because that reversal may “never” happen because the market takes off in a trend. For this reason Dr. Ehlers included two lines of code that are escape mechanisms if we were wrong in our entry signal. These last two Signal lines of code reverse the trading position if we have been in the trade for more than eight bars and the trade has an open position loss.
Key Signal
Cycle ---> Cyber Cycle fast line
Cycle (2) ---> Cyber Cycle slow line
Signal ---> Trading signal fast line
Signal(1) ---> Trading signal slow line
Pros and Cons
100% John F. Ehlers definition translation of original work, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book. If you had read his works, then you will be quite familiar with my code style.
Remarks
The 25th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
Tìm kiếm tập lệnh với "Cycle"
Lunar calendar day Crypto Trading StrategyLunar calendar day Crypto Trading Strategy
This strategy explores the potential impact of the lunar calendar on cryptocurrency price cycles.
It implements a simple but unconventional rule:
Buy on the 5th day of each lunar month
Sell on the 26th day of the lunar month
No trades between January 1 (solar) and Lunar New Year’s Day (holiday buffer period)
Research background
Several academic studies have investigated the influence of lunar cycles on financial markets. Their findings suggest:
Returns tend to be higher around the full moon compared to the new moon.
Periods between the full moon and the waning phase often show stronger average returns than the waxing phase.
This strategy combines those observations into a practical implementation by testing fixed entry (lunar day 5) and exit (lunar day 26) points, while excluding the transition period from solar New Year to Lunar New Year, effectively capturing mid-month lunar effects.
How it works
The script includes a custom lunar date calculation function, reconstructing lunar months and days for each year (2020–2026).
On lunar day 5, the strategy opens a long position with 100% of equity.
On lunar day 26, the strategy closes the position.
No trades are executed between Jan 1 and Lunar New Year’s Day.
All trades include:
Commission: 0.1%
Slippage: 3 ticks
Position sizing uses the entire equity (100%) for simplicity, but this is not recommended for live trading.
Why this is original
Unlike mashups of built-in indicators, this script:
Implements a full lunar calendar system inside Pine Script.
Translates academic findings on lunar effects into an applied backtest.
Adds a realistic trading filter (holiday gap) based on cultural/seasonal calendar rules.
Provides researchers and traders with a framework to explore non-traditional, time-based signals.
Notes
This is an experimental, research-oriented strategy, not financial advice.
Results are highly dependent on the chosen period (2020–2026).
Using 100% equity per trade is for simplification only and is not a viable money management practice.
The purpose is to investigate whether cyclical patterns linked to lunar time can provide any statistical edge in ETHUSDT.
Ehlers Stable Dominant Cycle Length [graylange]Stable Dominant Cycle Length – Adaptive Cycle Detection for Market Timing
This script calculates the dominant cycle length of the market using an improved version of John Ehlers' Hilbert Transform approach. Unlike traditional implementations, this version includes advanced smoothing techniques to reduce noise and prevent erratic spikes, making it more reliable for adaptive cycle-based strategies.
🔥 Key Features:
✅ Noise-Reduced Cycle Detection – Uses a Weighted Moving Average (WMA) detrending method instead of raw Hilbert Transform values to enhance stability.
✅ Adaptive Smoothing – Applies an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to the instantaneous period, reducing excessive volatility in cycle length calculations.
✅ Phase Wrapping & Constraints – Clamps phase changes to prevent unrealistic cycle swings and division errors.
✅ Dynamic Cycle Adjustment – The dominant cycle length updates in real time, constrained within a reasonable range (6 to 50 bars) to avoid extreme peaks.
📌 How to Use It:
Identify Market Cycles – Use the dominant cycle length to determine optimal trend-following vs. mean-reversion strategies.
Enhance MESA Filters – Apply the detected cycle length to adjust Ehlers’ MESA Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA) dynamically.
Fine-Tune Alpha Settings – Reduce overfitting in cycle-based indicators by basing parameters on a stable dominant cycle estimate.
AuriumFlowAURIUM (GOLD-Weighted Average with Fractal Dynamics)
Aurium is a cutting-edge indicator that blends volume-weighted moving averages (VWMA), fractal geometry, and Fibonacci-inspired calculations to deliver a precise and holistic view of market trends. By dynamically adjusting to price and volume, Aurium uncovers key levels of confluence for trend reversals and continuations, making it a powerful tool for traders.
Key Features:
Dynamic Trendline (GOLD):
The central trendline is a weighted moving average based on price and volume, tuned using Fibonacci-based fast (34) and slow (144) exponential moving average lengths. This ensures the trendline adapts seamlessly to the flow of market dynamics.
Formula:
GOLD = VWMA(34) * Volume Factor + VWMA(144) * (1 - Volume Factor)
Fractal Highs and Lows:
Detects pivotal market points using a fractal lookback period (default 5, odd-numbered). Fractals identify local highs and lows over a defined window, capturing the structure of market cycles.
Trend Background Highlighting:
Bullish Zone: Price above the GOLD line with a green background.
Bearish Zone: Price below the GOLD line with a red background.
Buy and Sell Alerts:
Generates actionable signals when fractals align with GOLD. Bullish fractals confirm continuation or reversal in an uptrend, while bearish fractals validate a downtrend.
The Math Behind Aurium:
Volume-Weighted Adjustments:
By integrating volume into the calculation, Aurium dynamically emphasizes price levels with greater participation, giving traders insight into zones of institutional interest.
Formula:
VWMA = EMA(Close * Volume) / EMA(Volume)
Fractal Calculations:
Fractals are identified as local maxima (highs) or minima (lows) based on the surrounding bars, leveraging the natural symmetry in price behavior.
Fibonacci Relationships:
The 34 and 144 EMA lengths are Fibonacci numbers, offering a natural alignment with price cycles and market rhythms.
Ideal For:
Traders seeking a precise and intuitive indicator for aligning with trends and detecting reversals.
Strategies inspired by Bill Williams, with added volume and fractal-based insights.
Short-term scalpers and long-term trend-followers alike.
Unlock deeper market insights and trade with precision using Aurium!
Moonhub Cycle IndexMoonhub Cycle Index is a composite index derived from three popular technical analysis indicators: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Schaff Trend Cycle (STC), and Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO). The indicator is designed to help identify potential trends and market sentiment by combining the unique characteristics of each indicator.
Key components of the indicator include:
Input Parameters:
COEMA Length (len_DIema): The length of the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) applied to the Custom Index. Default is set to 9.
COSMA Length (len_DIsma): The length of the Simple Moving Average (SMA) applied to the Custom Index. Default is set to 30.
Indicators:
MACD: A momentum oscillator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price. It is calculated using the difference between the 12-period and 26-period EMA, and a 9-period EMA (signal line) of the MACD.
STC: A cyclic indicator that identifies cyclical trends in the market. It is calculated using the Stochastic oscillator formula applied to the close, high, and low prices over a 10-period lookback window.
DPO: A price oscillator that eliminates the trend from price data to focus on underlying cycles. It is calculated using a custom function that shifts the price by half the length and subtracts the SMA from the shifted price.
Custom Index: The composite index is calculated by taking the average of the MACD line, STC, and DPO.
COEMA and COSMA: Exponential and Simple Moving Averages applied to the Custom Index using the lengths specified by the input parameters (len_DIema and len_DIsma).
Plots: The Custom Index, COEMA, and COSMA are plotted with different colors and line widths to visualize their interaction and provide insights into potential market trends.
This Custom Index Indicator can be useful for traders who want to analyze the market using a combination of these indicators to make more informed decisions. It can also help identify potential trends and market sentiment by combining the unique characteristics of each indicator.
Price Action AverageThis indicator is perfect for scalping in 1 minute, it consists of a channel and a line that is made up of the average of the highs and lows of the price in 12 and 64 cycles.
The channel has as its center a 7 cycles SMA, when the average line (Called Signal, the purple one) crosses the upper band it is time to make a Long.
If it crosses the lower band it is time to make a short, if the line returns to the channel a signal appears to close the operation.
The indicator works with all timeframes, I use it on the 1 hour chart and I do the trades in 1 minute.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & D_DSP (Detrended Synthetic Price) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Detrended Synthetic Price is a function that is in phase with the
dominant cycle of real price data. This DSP is computed by subtracting
a half-cycle exponential moving average (EMA) from the quarter cycle
exponential moving average.
See "MESA and Trading Market Cycles" by John Ehlers pages 64 - 70.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Morphed Sine WaveIntroduction
If you rescale a sine wave to the price you will need to correlate it with it in order to show good results, today i present a different method that does not involve correlation to "morph" a sine wave to the price in order to provide forecast's and highlight market periodic patterns.
Parameters
length control the period of the sine wave, power control the "morphing" amount, if you see for example that the results are going nuts try to increase power , if the results are just the price and the delayed price try to decrease power .
power = 1
power = 100
Those settings might be different depending on which market you are in.
Various Uses
You can do a lot of things with this indicator, use filters as source :
Use the indicator as source for oscillators in order to create cycles indicators :
And certainly many more things
Conclusion
I presented a way to morph a sine wave to the price i order to highlight cycles. You can use any function that return a value between -1 and 1 instead of sin , this can be a scaled rsi/stochastic or correlation coefficient, its up to you :)
If you need help don't hesitate to commend or pm me. I hope you will like the indicator and that it will inspire you to make great things.
Thanks for reading !
VACPWelles Wilder (delta phenomenon) a 4-day rotation indicator
PVAC is the acronym Alan uses for a four-day rotation cycle. The cycle itself is circularly continuous every days of the week, forever, including every holiday. Thus if, for instance, Monday was a P, Tuesday is V, Wednesday is A, Thursday is C. At this point the cycle repeats, with Friday being P, Saturday being V, Sunday being A, and the following Monday being C.
Having started, the cycle never changes. While each day tends to have the characteristics shown below, like all cycle tools, there are inversions, which will last a cycle or at times even more, and have reasonable odds of inverting regularly.
A trader who wants to incorporate a four-day rotation cycle into their work is encouraged to study for themselves whether this adds value.
Day: V-day Color: Red Characteristics: Closes well for bulls; Use your fleece bars Bar8 and Bar11; Bar8 open often a V-day return target; 'V' return comes early in day in bear moves, late in day in bullish moves
Day: A-day Color: Blue Characteristics: Closes poorly for bulls; Use your fleece bars 8 and 11; Generally 'A' shaped, but may have a kick-leg after 3pm
Day: C-day Color: Orange Characteristics: Consolidation day, aka 'consoly' day. It may not chop, but it may have an
accumulation or distribution quality to the action; Trade often and trade fast; Pattern traders fade 4HHs and 4LLs with backfill/pullbacks 3 bars later; Apexes and angulars tend to have less importance; Numerical traders trade after Bar8 open and use support one horizontal below, resistance one horizontal above; C-day opens often at the 25%; The afternoon action tends to be opposite to the morning action
Day: P-day Color: Green Characteristics: Often a trend day. Find the trend and enter it; Often opens at the 75%; Trade P-days against a quartile; Watch for price to be above/below the first apex: buy above or sell below ; Do not fade dead zone, minimal trading
Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve 2025 Z-Score"The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve is a concept used to analyze Bitcoin's price movements over time. The idea is based on the observation that Bitcoin's price tends to grow exponentially, particularly during bull markets. It attempts to give a long-term perspective on the Bitcoin price movements.
The curve includes an upper and lower band. These bands often represent zones where Bitcoin's price is overextended (upper band) or undervalued (lower band) relative to its historical growth trajectory. When the price touches or exceeds the upper band, it may indicate a speculative bubble, while prices near the lower band may suggest a buying opportunity.
Unlike most Bitcoin growth curve indicators, this one includes a logarithmic growth curve optimized using the latest 2024 price data, making it, in our view, superior to previous models. Additionally, it features statistical confidence intervals derived from linear regression, compatible across all timeframes, and extrapolates the data far into the future. Finally, this model allows users the flexibility to manually adjust the function parameters to suit their preferences.
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve has the following function:
y = 10^(a * log10(x) - b)
In the context of this formula, the y value represents the Bitcoin price, while the x value corresponds to the time, specifically indicated by the weekly bar number on the chart.
How is it made (You can skip this section if you’re not a fan of math):
To optimize the fit of this function and determine the optimal values of a and b, the previous weekly cycle peak values were analyzed. The corresponding x and y values were recorded as follows:
113, 18.55
240, 1004.42
451, 19128.27
655, 65502.47
The same process was applied to the bear market low values:
103, 2.48
267, 211.03
471, 3192.87
676, 16255.15
Next, these values were converted to their linear form by applying the base-10 logarithm. This transformation allows the function to be expressed in a linear state: y = a * x − b. This step is essential for enabling linear regression on these values.
For the cycle peak (x,y) values:
2.053, 1.268
2.380, 3.002
2.654, 4.282
2.816, 4.816
And for the bear market low (x,y) values:
2.013, 0.394
2.427, 2.324
2.673, 3.504
2.830, 4.211
Next, linear regression was performed on both these datasets. (Numerous tools are available online for linear regression calculations, making manual computations unnecessary).
Linear regression is a method used to find a straight line that best represents the relationship between two variables. It looks at how changes in one variable affect another and tries to predict values based on that relationship.
The goal is to minimize the differences between the actual data points and the points predicted by the line. Essentially, it aims to optimize for the highest R-Square value.
Below are the results:
snapshot
snapshot
It is important to note that both the slope (a-value) and the y-intercept (b-value) have associated standard errors. These standard errors can be used to calculate confidence intervals by multiplying them by the t-values (two degrees of freedom) from the linear regression.
These t-values can be found in a t-distribution table. For the top cycle confidence intervals, we used t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), and t33% (0.414). For the bottom cycle confidence intervals, the t-values used were t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), t33% (0.414), t50% (0.765), and t67% (1.063).
The final bull cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.058 ± 0.133 * log10(x) – 6.44 ± 0.324)
The final bear cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.684 ± 0.025 * log10(x) – -9.034 ± 0.063)
The main Criticisms of growth curve models:
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve model faces several general criticisms that we’d like to highlight briefly. The most significant, in our view, is its heavy reliance on past price data, which may not accurately forecast future trends. For instance, previous growth curve models from 2020 on TradingView were overly optimistic in predicting the last cycle’s peak.
This is why we aimed to present our process for deriving the final functions in a transparent, step-by-step scientific manner, including statistical confidence intervals. It's important to note that the bull cycle function is less reliable than the bear cycle function, as the top band is significantly wider than the bottom band.
Even so, we still believe that the Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve presented in this script is overly optimistic since it goes parly against the concept of diminishing returns which we discussed in this post:
This is why we also propose alternative parameter settings that align more closely with the theory of diminishing returns."
Now with Z-Score calculation for easy and constant valuation classification of Bitcoin according to this metric.
Created for TRW
21DMA Structure Counter (EMA/SMA Option)21DMA Structure Counter (EMA/SMA Option)
Overview
The 21DMA Structure Counter is an advanced technical indicator that tracks consecutive periods where price action remains above a 21-period moving average structure. This indicator helps traders identify momentum phases and potential trend exhaustion points using statistical analysis.
Key Features
Moving Average Structure
- Configurable MA Type: Choose between EMA (Exponential Moving Average) or SMA (Simple Moving Average)
- 21-Period Default: Optimized for the widely-watched 21-period moving average
- Triple MA Structure: Tracks high, close, and low moving averages for comprehensive analysis
Statistical Analysis
- Cycle Counting: Automatically counts consecutive periods above the MA structure
- Historical Data: Maintains up to 2,500 historical cycles (approximately 10 years of daily data)
- Z-Score Calculation: Provides statistical context using mean and standard deviation
- Multiple Standard Deviation Levels: Displays +1, +2, and +3 standard deviation thresholds
Visual Indicators
Color-Coded Bars:
- Gray: Below 10-year average
- Yellow: Between average and +1 standard deviation
- Orange: Between +1 and +2 standard deviations
- Red: Between +2 and +3 standard deviations
- Fuchsia: Above +3 standard deviations (extreme readings)
Breadth Integration
- Multiple Breadth Options: NDFI, NDTH, NDTW (NASDAQ breadth indicators), or VIX
- Background Shading: Visual alerts when breadth reaches extreme levels
- High/Low Thresholds: Customizable levels for breadth analysis
- Real-time Display: Current breadth value shown in data table
Smart Reset Logic
- High Below Structure Reset: Automatically resets count when daily high falls below the lowest MA
- Flexible Hold Period: Continues counting during temporary weakness as long as structure isn't violated
- Precise Entry/Exit: Strict criteria for starting cycles, flexible for maintaining them
How to Use
Trend Identification
- Rising Counts: Indicate sustained momentum above key moving average structure
- Extreme Readings: Z-scores above +2 or +3 suggest potential trend exhaustion
- Historical Context: Compare current cycles to 10-year statistical averages
Risk Management
- Breadth Confirmation: Use breadth shading to confirm market-wide strength/weakness
- Statistical Extremes: Exercise caution when readings reach +3 standard deviations
- Reset Signals: Pay attention to structure violations for potential trend changes
Multi-Timeframe Application
- Daily Charts: Primary timeframe for swing trading and position management
- Weekly/Monthly: Longer-term trend analysis
- Intraday: Shorter-term momentum assessment (adjust MA period accordingly)
Settings
Moving Average Options
- Type: EMA or SMA selection
- Period: Default 21 (customizable)
- Reset Days: Days below structure required for reset
Visual Customization
- Standard Deviation Lines: Toggle and customize colors for +1, +2, +3 SD
- Breadth Selection: Choose from NDFI, NDTH, NDTW, or VIX
- Threshold Levels: Set custom high/low breadth thresholds
- Table Styling: Customize text colors, background, and font size
Technical Notes
- Data Retention: Maintains 2,500 historical cycles for robust statistical analysis
- Real-time Updates: Calculations update with each new bar
- Breadth Integration: Uses security() function to pull external breadth data
- Performance Optimized: Efficient array management prevents memory issues
Best Practices
1. Combine with Price Action: Use alongside support/resistance and chart patterns
2. Monitor Breadth Divergences: Watch for breadth weakness during strong readings
3. Respect Statistical Extremes: Exercise caution at +2/+3 standard deviation levels
4. Context Matters: Consider overall market environment and sector rotation
5. Risk Management: Use appropriate position sizing, especially at extreme readings
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. Always combine with other forms of analysis and proper risk management techniques.
Compatible with Pine Script v6 | Optimized for daily timeframes | Best used on major indices and liquid stocks
PA-Adaptive TRIX Log [Loxx]PA-Adaptive TRIX Log is a Phase Accumulation Adaptive TRIX Log indicator. This adaptation smooths the signal to catch larger trends.
What is TRIX?
TRIX is a momentum oscillator that displays the percent rate of change of a TEMA . It was developed in the early 1980's by Jack Hutson, an editor for "Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities" magazine. With its triple smoothing, TRIX is designed to filter insignificant price movements. In his article he uses a logarithm of a price (which is in many versions, left out).
What is the Phase Accumulation Cycle?
The phase accumulation method of computing the dominant cycle is perhaps the easiest to comprehend. In this technique, we measure the phase at each sample by taking the arctangent of the ratio of the quadrature component to the in-phase component. A delta phase is generated by taking the difference of the phase between successive samples. At each sample we can then look backwards, adding up the delta phases.When the sum of the delta phases reaches 360 degrees, we must have passed through one full cycle, on average.The process is repeated for each new sample.
The phase accumulation method of cycle measurement always uses one full cycle’s worth of historical data.This is both an advantage and a disadvantage.The advantage is the lag in obtaining the answer scales directly with the cycle period.That is, the measurement of a short cycle period has less lag than the measurement of a longer cycle period. However, the number of samples used in making the measurement means the averaging period is variable with cycle period. longer averaging reduces the noise level compared to the signal.Therefore, shorter cycle periods necessarily have a higher out- put signal-to-noise ratio.
Included
Bar coloring
2 signal options
Alerts
Half-Pi Cycle CKB top indicator (insanely experimental)This is an insanely experimental script. It's a modified version of the Bitcoin pi-cycle top indicator.
It changes the Bitcoin pi-cycle top formula by halving the number of days in the two DMAs used in calculation, from 350/111 to 175/56. So I call it the half-pi cycle. It correctly picked the top of CKB (Nervos Network) vs USDT on Huobi in spring 2021 within three days.
It probably is a coincidence, and could very easily not pick the next cycle peak correctly at all. Using such a short number of days makes it a little dubious, but I had no choice since there's only so much price history for this coin. I strongly advise you to not make any trades based on this script ! I cannot be held accountable if you lose money due to this script. It hasn't been shown to be accurate multiple times like the Bitcoin pi-cycle top indicator. I simply find this interesting and want to see if it works next time.
PyraTime Harmonic 369Concept and Methodology PyraTime Harmonic 369 is a quantitative time-projection tool designed to apply Modular Arithmetic to market analysis. Unlike linear time indicators, this tool projects non-linear integer sequences derived from Digital Root Summation (Base-9 Reduction).
The core logic utilizes the mathematical progression of the 3-6-9 constants. By anchoring to a user-defined "Origin Pivot," the script projects three distinct harmonic triads to identify potential Temporal Confluence—moments where mathematical time cycles align with price action.
Technical Features This script focuses on the Standard Scalar (1x) projection of the Digital Root sequence:
The Root-3 Triad (Red): Projects intervals of 174, 285, 396. (Mathematical Sum: 1+7+4=12→3)
The Root-6 Triad (Green): Projects intervals of 417, 528, 639. (Mathematical Sum: 4+1+7=12→3, inverted)
The Root-9 Triad (Blue): Projects intervals of 741, 852, 963. (Mathematical Sum: 7+4+1=12→3... completion to 9)
How to Use
Set Anchor: Input the time of a significant High or Low in the settings.
Select Resolution: This tool is optimized for 1-minute (Micro-Harmonics) and 15-minute (Intraday Harmonics) charts.
Analyze Clusters: The vertical lines represent calculated harmonic intervals. Traders look for "Clusters" where a Root-3 and Root-9 cycle land on adjacent bars, indicating a high-probability pivot.
System Architecture & Version Comparison This script represents the foundational layer of the PyraTime ecosystem.
This Script (PyraTime Harmonic 369):
Scalar: Standard 1x Multiplier only.
Focus: Intraday & Micro-structure (1m, 15m).
Engine: Core Digital Root Integers.
PyraTime Harmonic Matrix (Advanced Edition):
Scalar Engine: Unlocks Quad-Fractal (4x), Tri-Fractal (3x), and Bi-Fractal (2x) multipliers for institutional cycle analysis.
Apex Logic: Auto-detection of the "963" Completion Sequence (Gold Highlight).
Event Horizon: Includes a live Predictive Dashboard that calculates the time-delta to the next harmonic event across all scalar groups.
Disclaimer This tool is for the educational analysis of Number Theory in financial markets. It projects time intervals and does not predict price direction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Adaptive Fisherized CMOIntroduction
Heyo, here is another no-repaint adaptive fisherized indicator.
I added Inverse Fisher Transform, Ehlers dominant cycle analysis and smoothing to the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO).
Usage
The CMO is a momentum oscillator which shows the usual movement of an asset.
I recommend to use it from a lower timeframe with a higher timeframe set.
Signals
(Signal mode will come soon.)
Zero Line
CMO crosses above zero line => enter long
CMO cross below zero line => ente short
Overbought/Oversold
CMO crosses above bottom band => enter long
CMO crosses under top band => enter short
MA (Maybe this signals will vary. Then, check update notes.)
CMO crosses above MA => enter long
CMO crosses below MA => enter short
Enjoy and share your experience with it!
More to read: CMO Explanationsp
Pi Cycle indicator for Bitcoin bull market cyclesA simple implementation of the Pi cycle indicator for BTC. Plots the 111 days SMA and 2*(350 days SMA).
When the 111 days MA reaches above the 350 one, we can consider the market got too high too fast.
Checked for the last cycles of BTC.
Dominant Cycle Adaptive MACDThis Indicator is based on classic MACD but with an exceptional smoothing.
This smoothing eliminates the noise of the classic MACD as you see in the Chart
Adaptive MACD is compiled using with two adaptive moving averages, one adaptive to the dominant cycle and the other adaptive to twice the dominant cycle. As the basic behind the MACD is the difference of two moving averages we cannot find much difference between the conventional MACD (12, 26) and the adaptive MACD. However the adaptive MACD is less prone for less whipsaws and it catches the trends very well at the same time the catches the turning points in time. The Adaptive MACD is definite one notch better than the conventional MACD.
Dominant Cycle Period is calculated using Ehler's Method {Mentioned in the code}
This is how the Adaptiveness Impacts the Price Chart
1. (12, 26 EMA) VS Adaptive Dominant Cycle EMA
2. See how the Adaptive Lengths {both FastLength and SlowLength changes with time!}
Enjoy!
Pi Cycle Bitcoin Top IndicatorThe script implements the Pi Cycle Top indicator
This indicator identifies tops in the bitcoin market cycle. Historically, the Pi Cycle Top indicator has called out tops in the price of bitcoin within three days.
The script is very easy to use and it is possible to change the following parameters:
the time interval (default value is day);
the days of long moving average (default value is 365)
the days of short moving average (default value is 111)
show the moving average plots
show the Pi Cycle Top label highlighting the cross-point
Recursive DifferenciatorIntroduction
Cycles can be spotted by using a wide range of methods, most of them will involve bandpass filtering, here i will show a method using recursion with the change() function.
The Indicator
As i explained in other indicators using recursion i posted rescaling the input is important, i will use the rsi of an exponential moving average as input. alpha control the amount of output the indicator will use as input, values closer to 0.5 will use more input resulting in more periodic results.
Lowering alpha when length is higher can help get more periodic results.
Conclusion
I have showed a new cycle indicator using recursion. Recursion with oscillators can highlights cycles in price thus being easier to predict.
Thanks for reading !
Madrid SinewaveThis implements the Even Better Sinewave indicator as described in the book Cycle Analysis for Traders by John F. Ehlers .
In the example I used 36 as the cycle to be analyzed and a second cycle with a shorter period, 9, the larger period tells where the dominant cycle is heading, and the faster cycle signals entry/exit points and reversals.
deKoder | Ultra High Timeframe Moving Average & Log StDev BandsdeKoder | Ultra High Timeframe Moving Average & Log StDev Bands
Identify long-term statistical extremes and map the core trend with the deKoder | uHTF MA indicator. Designed for macro analysis, this tool uses ultra high timeframe moving averages and logarithmic standard deviation bands to frame price action, providing clear signals for when an asset is statistically cheap, fairly priced, or expensive.
KEY FEATURES
• Ultra High Timeframe (uHTF) Moving Average:
• Acts as a dynamic long term fair value equilibrium line. Choose from periods like 1-Year, 2-Year, or 'Long Time'.
• Select your MA type: SMA, EMA, Hull MA, or a Rolling VWAP .
• Automatically fetches optimal data (4H/D) for smoother plotting on lower timeframes.
• Probabilistic Logarithmic Bands:
• The bands are calculated using log-standard deviation , creating a framework that adapts to exponential growth. As such, your chart price scale should be set to log.
• ~68% of price action typically occurs between the ±1σ bands (fair value zone).
• Trading in the ±1σ to ±2σ channel is typical in a strongly trending market. Moves towards the ±3σ bands can indicate that the market is becoming overextended. Expect strong price moves here and pay attention for signs of reversal.
• Bitcoin Halving Timeline:
• Integrated vertical lines and labels for all Bitcoin halvings.
• Correlates technical extremes with fundamental scarcity events.
• 4-Year Cycle Visual Aid:
• The background color cycle highlights yearly changes.
• Red years have historically aligned with bear markets, while the subsequent green zone has marked accumulation phases.
• Note: The bands provide the primary information - the background color is a contextual guide based on historical patterns around the BTC 4 year halving cycle that may not persist in future. It's quite possible that the market will act differently going forward considering the new types participants such as ETFs and government reserve funds.
HOW TO USE & INTERPRET
• Fair Value & Extremes:
• Price between ±1σ Bands: The asset is trading within a statistically fair value range.
• Price at +2σ / +3σ Bands: The asset is statistically expensive. Statistically, the price is overextended in this region, although you do NOT want to fade it based only upon this information.
• Price at -2σ / -3σ Bands: The asset is statistically cheap. These zones have frequently coincided with the end of bear markets and profound long-term buying opportunities.
• Dynamic Support & Resistance:
• The uHTF MA and its bands tend to act as support and resistance areas of interest on daily, weekly and monthly charts.
INPUTS & CUSTOMIZATION
• Toggles : Master switch for the MA, Bands, and Halving markers.
• uHTF Moving Average Filter : Select instrument (default: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD), price source, MA length, and type.
• Colours : Fine-tune the appearance of all elements.
PRO TIPS
• While created for Bitcoin, this principle will work well on other high-growth assets and major indices.
• The most reliable signals occur on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly timeframes.
• This is a lagging, macro-filter indicator. It is not for timing short-term entries but for confirming the long-term trend and cycle phase.
"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful." - The deKoder | uHTF MA is here to help you quantify that greed and fear on a macro scale.
Pulse of Cycle Oscillator"Pulse of Cycle" Oscillator: Logic and Usage
What Is It and How Does It Work?
The "Pulse of Cycle" is an oscillator that measures the cycles of price rises and falls, helping you spot overbought and oversold conditions. Unlike classic indicators, it doesn’t focus on how much the price moves but tracks its direction (up or down) like a "pulse." Here’s the logic:
Price Movement:
If the price rises compared to the previous bar, it adds +1.
If the price falls, it subtracts -1.
If the price stays the same, it adds 0.
Decay Factor: Each step, the previous value is multiplied by a factor (e.g., 0.9) to shrink it slightly. This keeps the oscillator from growing too big and focuses it on recent price action.
Signals: The oscillator moves around zero. When it crosses certain levels (e.g., 5 and 10), it warns you about overbought or oversold zones:
Weak Signal: Above ±5, the market might be stretching a bit.
Strong Signal: Above ±10, a reversal is more likely.
In short, it tracks the "rhythm" of price streaks (consecutive ups or downs) and signals when things might be getting extreme.
How It Looks on the Chart
Line: The oscillator moves around a zero line.
Colors:
Blue: Normal zone (between -5 and +5).
Orange: Weak overbought (+5 and up) or oversold (-5 and down).
Red: Strong overbought (+10 and up).
Lime: Strong oversold (-10 and down).
Threshold Lines: You’ll see lines at 0, ±5, and ±10 on the chart to show where you are.
How to Use It?
Here’s how to trade with this oscillator:
Buy Opportunity (Long Position):
When?: The oscillator drops below -5 (weak) or -10 (strong), then starts moving back toward zero. This suggests the price has hit a bottom and might rise.
Example: It falls to -12 (lime), then rises to -8. You could buy, expecting a bounce.
Tip: Wait for a green candle to confirm if you want to be safer.
Sell Opportunity (Short Position):
When?: The oscillator rises above +5 (weak) or +10 (strong), then starts dropping back toward zero. This indicates the price might have peaked and could fall.
Example: It hits +11 (red), then drops to +7. You could sell, expecting a decline.
Tip: Look for a red candle to confirm the turn.
Neutral Zone: If it’s between -5 and +5, the market is balanced. You can wait for a clearer signal.
Practical Steps to Use
Add to TradingView:
Paste the code into Pine Editor and click “Add to Chart.”
Adjust Settings (Optional):
Decay (0.9): Lower to 0.7 for faster response, raise to 0.95 for smoother movement.
Thresholds (5 and 10): Change them (e.g., 4 and 8) based on your market.
Watch Signals:
Follow the color changes and threshold crossings.
Set Alerts:
Right-click the oscillator > “Add Alert” to get notified on overbought/oversold signals.
Things to Watch Out For
Confirmation: Pair it with support/resistance levels or candlestick patterns for stronger signals.
Market Type: Works best in range-bound (sideways) markets. In strong trends (all up or down), signals might mislead.
Risk: Always use a stop loss—below the last low for buys, above the last high for sells.
Summary
The "Pulse of Cycle" is a simple yet powerful tool that tracks price movement streaks. Use it to catch reversals at strong signals (-10/+10) or get early warnings at weak signals (±5). The colors and lines on the chart make it easy to see when to act.
Bitcoin Rainbow WaveBitcoin ultimate price model:
1. Power Law + 2. Rainbow Narrowing Bands + 3. Halving Cycle Harmonic Wave + 3. Wave bands
This powerful tool is designed to help traders of all levels understand and navigate the Bitcoin market. It works exclusively with BTC on any timeframe, but looks best on weekly or daily charts. The indicator provides valuable insights into historical price behavior and offers forecasts for the next decade, making it essential for both mid-term and long-term strategies.
How the Model Works
Power Law (Logarithmic Trend) : The green line represents the expected long-term price trajectory of Bitcoin based on a logarithmic regression model (power law). This suggests that Bitcoin's price generally increases as a power of 5.44 over time passed.
Rainbow Chart : Colored bands around the power law trend line illustrate a range of potential price fluctuations. The bands narrow esponentially over time, indicating increasing model accuracy as Bitcoin matures. This chart visually identifies overbought and oversold zones, as well as fair value zones.
Blue Zone : Below the power law trend, indicating an undervalued condition and a potential buying zone.
Green Zone : Around the power law trend, suggesting fair value.
Yellow Zone : Above the power law trend, but within the rainbow bands. Exercise caution, as the price may be overextended.
Red Zone : Far above the power law trend, indicating strong overbought conditions. Consider taking profits or reducing exposure.
Halving Cycle Wave : The fuchsia line represents the cyclical wave component of the model, tied to Bitcoin's halving events (approximately every four years). This wave accounts for the price fluctuations that typically occur around halvings, with price tending to increase leading up to a halving and correct afterwards. The amplitude of the wave decreases over time as the impact of halvings potentially lessens. Additional bands around the wave show the expected range of price fluctuations, aiding traders in making informed decisions.
Customizing Parameters
You can fine-tune the model's appearance by adjusting these input parameters:
show Power Law (true/false): Toggle visibility of the power law trend line.
show Wave (true/false): Toggle visibility of the halving cycle wave.
show Rainbow Chart (true/false): Toggle visibility of the rainbow bands.
show Block Marks (true/false): Toggle visibility of the 70,000 block interval markers.
Using the Model in Your Trading Strategy
Combine this indicator with technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and risk management techniques to develop a comprehensive Bitcoin trading strategy. The model can help you identify potential entry and exit points, assess market sentiment, and manage risk based on Bitcoin's position relative to the power law trend, halving cycle wave, and rainbow chart zones.
