Fixed $200 Risk Futures Position Sizer (2R Target)This indicator is designed for traders who want to follow a strict, professional-style risk model identical to the rules used in funded futures trading programs. Instead of risking a percentage of the account, the indicator always risks a fixed $200 per trade, regardless of contract or market volatility. This allows traders to simulate evaluation accounts and maintain perfect risk discipline.
The tool works across a wide range of futures markets — including micro, mini, and continuous contracts (MES, MNQ, MNQ1!, MYM, M2K, MCL, MGC, ES1!, NQ1!, GC1!) — and automatically loads the correct tick size and tick value for each contract. This ensures that stop distance and risk calculations are always accurate, even when switching between index futures, metals, or energy markets.
You simply enter your Entry Price and Stop Loss Price, and the indicator calculates:
The stop distance in points and ticks
The exact dollar risk per contract
The maximum number of contracts allowed while staying under a fixed $200 risk
A fully automated 2R take-profit target (equivalent to $400 profit per trade)
Expected profit per contract
Total projected profit based on allowed size
Full long/short direction detection
This makes position sizing effortless and completely rule-based. If the chosen stop-loss distance requires more than $200 of risk per contract, the indicator will automatically show 0 contracts allowed, preventing invalid trades and helping maintain consistency.
For clarity and execution, the indicator also plots:
A green Entry Line
A red Stop-Loss Line
A blue 2R Take-Profit Line
This produces a visual, easy-to-understand risk-to-reward layout directly on the chart.
This tool is ideal for traders preparing for funded account challenges, traders practicing mechanical risk systems, or anyone who wants to enforce a strict, repeatable risk framework. It eliminates guesswork, improves consistency, and helps traders build discipline by sizing every trade according to a fixed dollar risk with a precise 2R reward objective.
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WSMR v3.9 — WhaleSplash → Mean Reversal
# WSMR v3.9 — WhaleSplash → Mean Reversal
*A Non-Repainting Impulse‑Reversal Engine for Systematic Futures Trading*
## Overview
WSMR v3.9 is a complete impulse → exhaustion → mean‑reversion framework designed for systematic intraday trading. It identifies high‑energy displacement events (“WhaleSplashes”), measures volatility structure, tracks VWAP deviation, and confirms reversals using RSI divergence, Z‑Score resets, SMA20 reclaim, and pivot-based structure.
All signals are non‑repainting and alerts fire on bar close.
---
## Core Components
### 1. WhaleSplash (Short Impulse Event)
Triggered when a candle meets displacement conditions:
- Large bar range vs ATR
- Minimum % move
- Volume expansion
- VWAP deviation (tick-based)
- Z‑Score oversold / RSI exhaustion
- Volatility-gated
### 2. Mean Reversal Long (MR)
Requires:
- RSI bullish divergence
- Z‑Score reset
- SMA20 reclaim
- Higher-low confirmation
### 3. First-Candle Confirmation (Optional)
- MR Confirm → first green after MR
- WS Confirm → first red after WS
- TTL window configurable
### 4. Asia Session Filter
Optional restriction to:
**23:00 → 09:00 UTC**
### 5. Volatility Monitor
Detects:
- Normal
- Wicky
- Spiky
- Extreme
### 6. WS Frequency Analytics
Rolling frequency calculation across:
- Bars / Days / Weeks / Months
---
## Status Panel (Top-Right)
Shows:
- Mode (Global / Asia-only)
- Timeframe + TTL
- WS frequency
- Volatility state
---
## Alerts
- WhaleSplash SHORT
- WhaleSplash LONG (MR)
- MR Confirm LONG
- WS Confirm SHORT
- Volatility Warning
---
## Notes
- Fully non‑repainting
- Stable bar-close logic
- Optimised for 1m–5m
- Works on futures, indices, metals, FX
Forex indicator By petran Elevate your market analysis with this powerful, all-in-one visual toolkit designed for discretionary traders across Forex, indices, and commodities (metals).
Core Features:
Trading Sessions Overlay: Clear visual bands highlighting the Asian, London, and New York trading sessions directly on your chart. Never miss a market open or a session overlap again.
Smart Daily Levels: Automatically plots the most essential reference points from the previous day:
PDH / PDL (Previous Day High/Low) – Key support and resistance.
PWH / PWL (Previous Week High/Low) – Higher timeframe context.
DO (Day Open) – A crucial intraday pivot level.
Motivational Watermark: A unique and customizable text overlay at the top of your screen. Display your favorite trading quote, rule, or reminder to maintain the right mindset during the trading day.
Clean & Customizable: Designed for clarity. Adjust colors, session times, and watermark text to fit your personal trading style and chart aesthetics.
Why Traders Choose This Indicator:
Saves Time: No more manually drawing sessions or calculating yesterday's levels.
Improves Discipline: The visual sessions and watermark help you trade only during your planned times and follow your rules.
Universal Application: Works seamlessly on any liquid market where session activity and daily ranges matter.
Perfect for traders who rely on price action, session-based strategies, and need a clean, informative chart environment.
Auto Position CalculatorA position sizing tool that automatically detects the instrument you're trading and calculates the correct position size based on your risk parameters.
What It Does
This indicator calculates how many contracts, lots, or shares to trade based on your account size, risk percentage, and stop loss distance. It auto-detects the instrument type and adjusts the point/pip value accordingly.
Supported Instruments
Futures: NQ, MNQ, ES, MES, YM, MYM, RTY, M2K, CL, MCL, GC, MGC
Forex: All major pairs (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, etc.)
Index CFDs: NAS100, US500, US30, GER40, UK100
Metals: XAU, XAG
Crypto and Stocks: Automatic detection
How to Use
Set your account size and risk % in settings
Click the settings icon and place Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profit on the chart
The position size and risk calculations appear automatically
Levels auto-reset at your chosen session (Asia, London, or New York open)
Limitations
CFD and forex pip values assume standard lot sizing - your broker may differ
Auto-detection relies on ticker naming conventions, which vary by broker/data feed
Session reset times are based on ET (Eastern Time)
Futures Dollar Profit Target VisualizerFutures Profit Target Visualizer
A simple visual tool that shows exactly where price needs to go to hit your dollar profit target (and stop loss) — ideal for prop traders managing daily drawdown limits.
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HOW IT WORKS
Enter your target profit in dollars, and the indicator draws lines showing:
• Green line — Your take profit level
• Red line — Your stop loss level
• Blue line — Your entry (current price)
It auto-detects the futures contract you're viewing (NQ, ES, MNQ, MES, etc.) and calculates the correct point value automatically.
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WHY IT'S USEFUL FOR PROP TRADERS
If your prop firm allows a $500 daily drawdown and you want to risk $100 per trade with a 1:1 R:R, just enter:
• Target Profit: $100
• Risk:Reward: 1
The indicator instantly shows you the exact price levels — no mental math needed.
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KEY FEATURES
• Auto-detects contract type (NQ, ES, MNQ, MES, CL, GC, and more)
• Separate inputs for Mini and Micro contract quantities — switch between charts and it automatically uses the right position size
• Supports Long and Short trades
• Adjustable Risk:Reward ratio
• Labels show price, dollar amount, and points to target
• Lines are offset to the right so they don't affect chart auto-scaling
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SETTINGS
Profit Settings:
• Target Profit ($) — Your desired profit in dollars
• Risk:Reward Ratio — e.g., 1 = equal risk/reward, 2 = target is 2x your stop
• Mini Contracts — Position size when viewing mini contracts (NQ, ES, etc.)
• Micro Contracts — Position size when viewing micro contracts (MNQ, MES, etc.)
Trade Settings:
• Trade Direction — Long or Short
• Entry Price — Leave at 0 to use current price, or set a specific entry
Display:
• Show Price Labels — Toggle the price/profit labels
• Show Fill — Toggle the shaded zones between entry and target/stop
• Line Offset — Push lines further right (helps avoid auto-scale issues)
• Line Length — How long the lines extend
• Colors — Customize target, stop, and entry line colors
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SUPPORTED CONTRACTS
Equity Index: NQ, ES, YM, RTY + Micros (MNQ, MES, MYM, M2K)
Energy: CL, MCL, NG
Metals: GC, MGC, SI, SIL
Treasuries: ZB, ZN, ZF, ZT
Currencies: 6E, 6J, 6B, 6A, 6C
Ags: ZC, ZS, ZW
If your contract isn't listed, use "Custom" and enter the tick value manually.
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EXAMPLE
You trade MNQ with 5 contracts and want to make $100:
• Set Micro Contracts: 5
• Set Target Profit: $100
• MNQ = $2/point × 5 contracts = $10/point
• Indicator shows target 10 points above entry
Switch to NQ with 1 contract:
• Set Mini Contracts: 1
• Same $100 target
• NQ = $20/point × 1 contract = $20/point
• Indicator shows target 5 points above entry
No need to change settings when switching charts — it adjusts automatically.
Support & Resistance Zone Hunter [BOSWaves]Support & Resistance Zone Hunter - Dynamic Structural Zones with Real-Time Breakout Intelligence
Overview
The Support & Resistance Zone Hunter is a professional-grade structural mapping framework designed to automatically detect high-probability support and resistance areas in real time. Unlike traditional static levels or manually drawn zones, this system leverages pivot detection, range thresholds, and optional volume validation to create dynamic zones that reflect the true structural architecture of the market.
Zones evolve as price interacts with their boundaries. The first touch of a zone determines its bias - bullish, bearish, or neutral - and the system tracks the full lifecycle of each zone from formation, testing, and bias establishment to potential breakout events. Diamond-shaped breakout signals highlight structurally significant price expansions while filtering noise using a configurable cooldown period.
By visualizing market structure in this way, traders gain a deeper understanding of price behavior, trend momentum, and areas where liquidity and reactive forces are concentrated.
Theoretical Foundation
The Support & Resistance Zone Hunter is built on the premise that meaningful structural zones arise from two core principles:
Pivot-Based Turning Points : Only significant highs and lows that represent actual swings in price are considered.
Contextual Validation : Zones must pass minimum range criteria and optional volume thresholds to ensure their relevance.
Markets naturally generate numerous micro-pivots that do not carry predictive significance. By filtering out minor swings and validating zones against volume and range, the system isolates levels that are more likely to attract future price interaction or act as catalysts for breakout moves.
This framework captures not only where price is likely to react but also the direction of potential pressure, providing a statistically grounded, visually intuitive representation of market structure.
How It Works
The Support & Resistance Zone Hunter constructs zones through a multi-layered process that blends pivot logic, range validation, and real-time bias determination:
1. Pivot Detection Core
The indicator identifies pivot highs and pivot lows using a configurable lookback period. Zones are only considered valid when both a top and bottom pivot are present.
2. Zone Qualification Engine
Prospective zones must satisfy two conditions:
Range Threshold : The distance between pivot high and low must exceed the minimum percentage set by the user.
Volume Requirement : If enabled, the current volume must exceed the 50-period moving average.
Only zones meeting these criteria are drawn, reducing noise and emphasizing high-probability structural levels.
3. Zone Lifecycle
Once a valid top and bottom pivot exist:
The zone is created starting from the pivot formation bar.
Zones remain active until both boundaries have been touched by price.
The first boundary touched establishes bias: resistance first → bullish bias ,support first → bearish bias, neither → neutral.
Inactive zones stop expanding but remain visible historically to maintain a clear structural context.
4. Visual Rendering
Active zones are displayed as filled boxes with color corresponding to their bias. Top, bottom, and midpoint lines are drawn for reference. Once a zone becomes inactive, its lines are removed while the filled box remains as a historical footprint.
5. Breakout Detection
Breakout signals occur when price closes above the top boundary or below the bottom boundary of an active zone. The system applies a cooldown period and requires price to return to the zone since the previous breakout to prevent signal spam. Bullish and bearish breakouts are visually represented by diamond-shaped markers with configurable colors.
Interpretation
The Support & Resistance Zone Hunter provides a structural view of market balance:
Bullish Zones : Form when resistance is tested first, indicating upward pressure and potential continuation.
Bearish Zones : Form when support is tested first, reflecting downward pressure and continuation risk.
Neutral Zones : Fresh zones that have not yet been interacted with, representing undiscovered liquidity.
Breakout Diamonds : Highlight significant structural price expansions, helping traders identify confirmed continuation moves while filtering noise.
Zones do not simply indicate past levels; they dynamically reflect the evolving battle between buyers and sellers, providing actionable context for both trend continuation and reversion strategies.
Strategy Integration
The Support & Resistance Zone Hunter is versatile and can be applied across multiple trading approaches:
Trend Continuation : Use bullish and bearish zones to confirm directional bias. Breakout diamonds indicate structural continuation opportunities.
Reversion Entries : Neutral zones often act as magnets in ranging markets, allowing for high-probability mean-reversion setups.
Breakout Trading : Diamonds mark true structural expansions, reducing false breakout risk and guiding stop placement or momentum entries.
Liquidity Zone Alignment : Combining the indicator with order block, breaker, or volume-based tools helps validate zones against broader market participation.
Technical Implementation Details
Pivot Engine : Two-sided pivot detection based on configurable lookback.
Zone Qualification : Minimum range requirement and optional volume filter.
Bias Logic : Determined by the first boundary touched.
Zone Lifecycle : Active until both boundaries are touched, historical visibility retained.
Breakout Signals : Diamond markers with cooldown filtering and price-return validation.
Visuals : Transparent filled zones with live top, bottom, and midpoint lines.
Suggested Optimal Parameters
Pivot Lookback : 10 - 30 for intraday, 20 - 50 for swing trading.
Minimum Range % : 0.5 - 2% for crypto or indices, 1 - 3% for metals or forex.
Volume Filter : Enable for assets with inconsistent liquidity; disable for consistently liquid markets.
Breakout Cooldown : 5 - 20 bars depending on volatility.
These suggested parameters should be used as a baseline; their effectiveness depends on the asset and timeframe, so fine-tuning is expected for optimal performance.
Performance Characteristics
High Effectiveness:
Markets with clear pivot structure and reliable volume.
Trending symbols with consistent retests.
Assets where zones attract repeated price interaction.
Reduced Effectiveness:
Random walk markets lacking structural pivots.
Low-volatility periods with minimal price reaction.
Assets with irregular volume distribution or erratic price action.
Integration Guidelines
Use zone color as contextual bias rather than a standalone signal.
Combine with structural tools, order blocks, or volume-based indicators for confluence.
Validate zones on higher timeframes to refine lower timeframe entries.
Treat breakout diamonds as confirmation of continuation rather than independent triggers.
Disclaimer
The Support & Resistance Zone Hunter provides structural zone mapping and breakout analytics. It does not predict price movement or guarantee profitability. Success requires disciplined risk management, proper parameter calibration, and integration into a comprehensive trading strategy.
sima-Prev HTF & Sessions (Tehran)This indicator automatically plots the Opening, Closing, High, and Low levels of the major global trading sessions: London, New York, and Asia. It is designed to help traders visualize intraday liquidity zones, session-based volatility, and potential reaction levels where price commonly expands or reverses.
The script includes fully adjustable session times and highlights each session using clean visual markers so traders can easily identify market structure within different time windows. By displaying the Open, Close, High, and Low of each session, the indicator helps forecast areas of interest such as breakout levels, range boundaries, and session-based support/resistance.
This tool is especially useful for intraday traders, scalpers, and anyone who relies on session dynamics to analyze market behavior. It works on all timeframes and all markets, including Forex, indices, metals, and crypto. No repainting is used; all levels are plotted based on completed session data.
SECTOR ROTATION Sector Rotation Indicator with Auto Chart Symbol
This indicator helps traders track relative performance across multiple indices/sectors simultaneously, making it easy to identify sector rotation and market leadership.
Key Features:
✅ 21 Symbols Tracking: Monitor 20 customizable symbols + your current chart symbol automatically(DIVIDEND SYMBOL)
✅ Percentage Performance: All moving averages show percentage gain/loss from 1 timeframe period ago
✅ Color-Coded Visualization: Heat map coloring (red to green) based on relative performance ranking
✅ Flexible Timeframes: Works on any timeframe from 1-minute to 12-month charts
✅ Performance Table: Quick-view table showing candle performance with inside/outside bar detection
✅ Indian Market Ready: Pre-configured with NSE indices (NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, and sectoral indices)
Default Symbols (Customizable):
NIFTY, CNXSMALLCAP, CNXMIDCAP, BANKNIFTY
Sector indices: IT, AUTO, PHARMA, METAL, ENERGY, FMCG, etc.
Plus your current chart symbol (automatically added)
How It Works:
Select your preferred timeframe (1D, 1W, 1M, etc.)
The indicator calculates percentage performance from given period ago
Moving averages show smoothed performance trends
Colors indicate relative strength: Green = outperformers, Red = underperformers
Perfect For:
Sector rotation analysis
Relative strength comparison
Market breadth assessment
Index/ETF traders
Swing and position traders
Settings:
Adjustable MA length (default: 20)
Customizable colors and table position
Show/hide percentage labels
Horizontal or vertical table layout
This is not any buy or sell signal or recommendation, consult with your advisor first.
SPX / Silver (XAGUSD) RatioThis script visualizes the S&P 500 Index to Silver ratio (SPX/Silver) — a powerful tool for monitoring the relative strength of equities vs. precious metals over time.
📊 Use Case:
Helps traders assess macro sentiment shifts between risk-on (equities) and risk-off (commodities).
A rising ratio indicates equity outperformance vs Silver, often in growth-driven bull markets.
A falling ratio suggests Silver is outperforming — potentially due to inflation, geopolitical risk, or weakening equities.
⚙️ Data & Calculation:
SPX: SP:SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Silver: TVC:SILVER
Formula:
SPX / Silver
(Both are spot/index prices, updated on daily timeframe)
📈 Interpretation:
📈 Ratio Rising → SPX outperforming Silver → Risk-on sentiment
📉 Ratio Falling → Silver outperforming SPX → Possible flight to safety or inflation hedge
🧠 Ideal For:
Macro trend analysis
Intermarket strategy development
Asset rotation decision-making
Spotting Silver bottoms during SPX/Silver peak zones
Alerts v6The strategy includes:
✅ EMA-based trend direction (fast vs slow)
✅ RSI filtering for overbought/oversold control
✅ ADX confirmation for strong trend validation
✅ Pullback & BOS detection for precision entries
✅ Per-bar change logic for adaptive entry timing
✅ Session/day gating to control trading hours
✅ JSON alert integration for AI trading bots or webhooks
This script is Pine Script v6 compatible and optimized for automated alert-based trading setups such as AI trading bots, webhook systems, and VPS-linked executions.
Recommended Timeframes: 5m, 15m, 30m
Markets: XAUUSD, FX pairs, indices, and metals
Aurum DCX AVE Gold and Silver StrategySummary in one paragraph
Aurum DCX AVE is a volatility break strategy for gold and silver on intraday and swing timeframes. It aligns a new Directional Convexity Index with an Adaptive Volatility Envelope and an optional USD/DXY bias so trades appear only when direction quality and expansion agree. It is original because it fuses three pieces rarely combined in one model for metals: a convexity aware trend strength score, a percentile based envelope that widens with regime heat, and an intermarket DXY filter.
Scope and intent
• Markets. Gold and silver futures or spot, other liquid commodities, major indices
• Timeframes. Five minutes to one day. Defaults to 30min for swing pace
• Default demo used in this publication. TVC:GOLD on 30m
• Purpose. Enter confirmed volatility breaks while muting chop using regime heat and USD bias
• Limits. This is a strategy. Orders are simulated on standard candles only
Originality and usefulness
• Unique fusion. DCX combines DI strength with path efficiency and curvature. AVE blends ATR with a high TR percentile and widens with DCX heat. DXY adds an intermarket bias
• Failure mode addressed. False starts inside compression and unconfirmed breakouts during USD swings
• Testability. Each component has a named input. Entry names L and S are visible in the list of trades
• Portable yardstick. Weekly ATR for stops and R multiples for targets
• Open source. Method and implementation are disclosed for community review
Method overview in plain language
You score direction quality with DCX, size an adaptive envelope with a blend of ATR and a high TR percentile, and only allow breaks that clear the band while DCX is above a heat threshold in the same direction. An optional DXY filter favors long when USD weakens and short when USD strengthens. Orders are bracketed with a Weekly ATR stop and an R multiple target, with optional trailing to the envelope.
Base measures
• Range basis. True Range and ATR over user windows. A high TR percentile captures expansion tails used by AVE
• Return basis. Not required
Components
• Directional Convexity Index DCX. Measures directional strength with DX, multiplies by path efficiency, blends a curvature term from acceleration, scales to 0 to 100, and uses a rise window
• Adaptive Volatility Envelope AVE. Midline ALMA or HMA or EMA plus bands sized by a blend of ATR and a high TR percentile. The blend weight follows volatility of volatility. Band width widens with DCX heat
• DXY Bias optional. Daily EMA trend of DXY. Long bias when USD weakens. Short bias when USD strengthens
• Risk block. Initial stop equals Weekly ATR times a multiplier. Target equals an R multiple of the initial risk. Optional trailing to AVE band
Fusion rule
• All gates must pass. DCX above threshold and rising. Directional lead agrees. Price breaks the AVE band in the same direction. DXY bias agrees when enabled
Signal rule
• Long. Close above AVE upper and DCX above threshold and DCX rising and plus DI leads and DXY bias is bearish
• Short. Close below AVE lower and DCX above threshold and DCX falling and minus DI leads and DXY bias is bullish
• Exit and flip. Bracket exit at stop or target. Optional trailing to AVE band
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Symbol. Default TVC:GOLD (Correlation Asset for internal logic)
• Signal timeframe. Blank follows the chart
• Confirm timeframe. Default 1 day used by the bias block
Directional Convexity Index
• DCX window. Typical 10 to 21. Higher filters more. Lower reacts earlier
• DCX rise bars. Typical 3 to 6. Higher demands continuation
• DCX entry threshold. Typical 15 to 35. Higher avoids soft moves
• Efficiency floor. Typical 0.02 to 0.06. Stability in quiet tape
• Convexity weight 0..1. Typical 0.25 to 0.50. Higher gives curvature more influence
Adaptive Volatility Envelope
• AVE window. Typical 24 to 48. Higher smooths more
• Midline type. ALMA or HMA or EMA per preference
• TR percentile 0..100. Typical 75 to 90. Higher favors only strong expansions
• Vol of vol reference. Typical 0.05 to 0.30. Controls how much the percentile term weighs against ATR
• Base envelope mult. Typical 1.4 to 2.2. Width of bands
• Regime adapt 0..1. Typical 0.6 to 0.95. How much DCX heat widens or narrows the bands
Intermarket Bias
• Use DXY bias. Default ON
• DXY timeframe. Default 1 day
• DXY trend window. Typical 10 to 50
Risk
• Risk percent per trade. Reporting field. Keep live risk near one to two percent
• Weekly ATR. Default 14. Basis for stops
• Stop ATR weekly mult. Typical 1.5 to 3.0
• Take profit R multiple. Typical 1.5 to 3.0
• Trail with AVE band. Optional. OFF by default
Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital. 20000
• Base currency. USD
• request.security lookahead off everywhere
• Commission. 0.03 percent
• Slippage. 5 ticks
• Default order size method percent of equity with value 3% of the total capital available
• Pyramiding 0
• Process orders on close ON
• Bar magnifier ON
• Recalculate after order is filled OFF
• Calc on every tick OFF
Realism and responsible publication
• No performance claims. Past results never guarantee future outcomes
• Shapes can move while a bar forms and settle on close
• Strategies use standard candles for signals and orders only
Honest limitations and failure modes
• Economic releases and thin liquidity can break assumptions behind the expansion logic
• Gap heavy symbols may prefer a longer ATR window
• Very quiet regimes can reduce signal contrast. Consider higher DCX thresholds or wider bands
• Session time follows the exchange of the chart and can change symbol to symbol
• Symbol sensitivity is expected. Use the gates and length inputs to find stable settings
Open source reuse and credits
• None
Mode
Public open source. Source is visible and free to reuse within TradingView House Rules
Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. You are responsible for your decisions. Test on historical data and in simulation before any live use. Use realistic costs.
HA Reversal + Doji 🔥 Heikin Ashi Reversal + Stochastic Filter (Precision Entry System)
This indicator is designed to detect high–quality reversal entries using a Heikin Ashi candle pattern (Doji + 2 no–wick confirmation) combined with a strict Stochastic filter that uses memory of extreme touches to control trade direction.
✅ Entry Logic
🔹 Bullish BUY Signal
A BUY is triggered only when:
A valid reversal pattern is detected:
Doji candle (pivot) 3 bars back
Followed by 2 bullish candles with no lower wicks
Stochastic touched Oversold (≤ 20) at least once before the signal
Pattern + Stoch alignment = BUY
🔹 Bearish SELL Signal
A SELL is triggered only when:
Valid bearish reversal pattern:
Doji candle (pivot) 3 bars back
Followed by 2 bearish candles with no upper wicks
Stochastic touched Overbought (≥ 80) before the signal
Pattern + Stoch alignment = SELL
🧠 Stochastic “Memory” Filter
This is not a basic OB/OS filter — it uses event memory:
If Stochastic touches Oversold, the system becomes ready for BUY
If it touches Overbought, it becomes ready for SELL
Both directions can be armed at once
Once a BUY or SELL actually triggers, memory resets to neutral
Prevents “signal spam” during chop and keeps direction meaningful
🎯 Why This Works
✔ Filters out random countertrend noise
✔ Only trades after momentum exhaustion
✔ Uses strict Heikin Ashi reversal structure
✔ Works great across crypto, forex, indices, metals
✔ Designed for precision entries and swing continuation traps
⚙️ Customizable Options
Doji detection mode (body % / ticks / hybrid)
Wick tolerance
Heikin Ashi source (chart or calculated)
Stochastic source (raw or smoothed)
Option to avoid duplicate same-direction signals
Visual aids: pattern markers, blocked signals, doji debugging
📌 Best Use Cases
Reversal scalping on 5m/15m
Swing entries on 1H/4H
Trend exhaustion confirmation
Smart Money Concepts entry refinement
Entry timing after liquidity sweeps
🚨 Important
This is not a repainting system. Signals are generated at bar close only. Always combine with proper risk management and market context.
Let me know if you want:
✅ A shorter description
✅ An SEO optimized TradingView title
✅ A strategy version with backtesting
✅ Alerts version for automation
XAUUSD/SPX with SMA(48)📊 Gold vs S&P 500 | XAUUSD/SPX Ratio with SMA (48) – Full Pine Script Breakdown
In this video, we build and explain a custom Pine Script that plots the Gold to S&P 500 ratio (XAUUSD/SPX) along with a 48-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
This ratio helps us analyze how Gold is performing against equities and whether smart money is shifting from risk assets (stocks) to safe haven (gold).
🔧 What’s Included in the Script:
✅ Live ratio of XAUUSD (Gold) / SPX (S&P 500)
✅ 48-period SMA for trend analysis
✅ Clean visual chart in a separate pane
✅ Pine Script v5 compatible
🧠 Why This Matters:
Tracking the XAUUSD/SPX ratio gives deeper insight into macro trends, inflation hedge behavior, and market sentiment.
A rising ratio can signal weakness in equities and strength in precious metals — a key trend for long-term investors and macro traders.
ORB + Session VWAP Pro (London & NY) — fixedORB + Session VWAP Pro (London & NY) — Listing copy (EN)
What it is
A clean, non-repainting intraday tool that fuses the classic Opening Range Breakout (ORB) with a session-anchored VWAP filter for London and New York. It highlights only the higher-quality breakouts (above/below session VWAP), adds an optional retest confirmation, and scores each signal with an intuitive Confidence metric (0–100).
Why it works
• ORB provides the day’s first actionable structure (range high/low).
• Session VWAP filters “cheap” breaks and favors flows aligned with session value.
• Optional retest reduces first-tick whipsaws.
• Confidence blends breakout depth (vs ATR), VWAP slope and band distance.
Key visuals
• LDN/NY OR High/Low (line break style) + optional OR boxes.
• Active Session VWAP (resets per signal window; falls back to daily VWAP outside).
• Optional VWAP bands (stdev or %).
• Session shading (London/NY windows).
• Signal markers (LDN BUY/SELL, NY BUY/SELL) fired with cooldown.
Signals
• London Long / Short: Break of LDN OR High/Low ± ATR buffer, aligned with VWAP side.
• NY Long / Short: Same logic during NY window.
• Retest (optional): Requires a tag back to the OR level ± tolerance before confirmation.
• Confidence: 0–100; gate via Min Confidence (default 55).
Inputs that matter
• Open Range Length (min): Default 15.
• London/NY times & timezones.
• ATR buffer & retest tolerance.
• Bands mode: Stdev (with lookback) or % (e.g., 1%).
• Signal cooldown: Avoids clutter on fast moves.
Non-repaint policy
• OR lines build within fixed time windows using the current bar’s timestamp.
• VWAP is cumulative within the session window; no lookahead.
• All ta.crossover/ta.crossunder are precomputed every bar (no conditional execution).
• Signals are based on live bar values, not future bars.
⸻
Quick start (examples)
1) EURUSD, London momentum
• Chart: 5m or 15m.
• OR: 15 min starting 08:00 Europe/London.
• Signals: Use defaults; keep ATR buffer = 0.2 and Retest = ON, Min Confidence ≥ 55.
• Play:
• BUY when price breaks LDN OR High + buffer and stays above VWAP; retest confirms.
• Trail behind VWAP or band #1; partials into band #2.
2) NAS100, New York breakout & run
• Chart: 5m.
• NY window: 09:30 America/New_York, OR = 15 min.
• Retest OFF on high momentum days; Min Confidence ≥ 60.
• Use band mode Stdev, bandLen=50, show ±1/±2.
• Momentum continuation: add on pullbacks that hold above VWAP after the breakout.
3) XAUUSD, London fake & VWAP fade
• Chart: 5m.
• Keep Retest ON; accept only shorts that break OR Low but retest fails back under VWAP.
• Confidence gate ≥ 50 to allow more mean-reversion setups.
⸻
Pro tips
• Adjust ATR buffer to the instrument: FX 0.15–0.25, indices 0.20–0.35, metals 0.20–0.30.
• Retest ON for choppy conditions; OFF for news momentum.
• Use VWAP bands: take partials at ±1; stretch targets at ±2/±3.
• Session timezones are explicit (London/New York). Ensure they match your instrument’s behavior.
• Pair with a higher-TF bias (e.g., 1H/4H trend) for directional filtering.
⸻
Alerts (ready to use)
• ORB+SVWAP — LDN Long, LDN Short, NY Long, NY Short
(Respect your cooldown; alerts fire only after confirmation and confidence gate.)
⸻
Known limits & notes
• Designed for intraday. On 1D+ charts, session windows compress.
• If your broker session differs from London/NY clocks on a holiday, adjust input times.
• Session-anchored VWAP uses the script’s signal window, not exchange sessions, by design.
Apex Edge – Wolfe Wave HunterApex Edge – Wolfe Wave Hunter
The modern Wolfe Wave, rebuilt for the algo era
This isn’t just another Wolfe Wave indicator. Classic Wolfe detection is rigid, outdated, and rarely tradable. Apex Edge – Wolfe Wave Hunter re-engineers the pattern into a modern, SMC-driven model that adapts to today’s liquidity-dominated markets. It’s not about drawing pretty shapes – it’s about extracting precision entries with asymmetric risk-to-reward potential.
🔎 What it does
Automatic Wolfe Wave Detection
Identifies bullish and bearish Wolfe Wave structures using pivot-based logic, symmetry filters, and slope tolerances.
Channel Glow Zones
Highlights the Wolfe channel and projects it forward into the future (bars are user-defined). This allows you to see the full potential of the trade before price even begins its move.
Stop Loss (SL) & Entry Arrow
At the completion of Wave 5, the algo prints a Stop Loss line and a tiny entry arrow (green for bullish, red for bearish). but the colours can be changed in user settings. This is the “execution point” — where the Wolfe setup becomes tradable.
Target Projection Lines
TP1 (EPA): Derived from the traditional 1–4 line projection.
TP2 (1.272 Fib): Optional secondary profit target.
TP3 (1.618 Fib): Optional extended target for large runners.
All TP lines extend into the future, so you can track them as price evolves.
Volume Confirmation (optional)
A relative volume filter ensures Wave 5 is formed with meaningful market participation before a setup is confirmed.
Alerts (ready out of the box)
Custom alerts can be fired whenever a bullish or bearish Wolfe Wave is confirmed. No need to babysit the charts — let the script notify you.
⚙️ Customisation & User Control
Every trader’s market and style is different. That’s why Wolfe Wave Hunter is fully customisable:
Arrow Colours & Size
Works on both light and dark charts. Choose your own bullish/bearish entry arrow colours for maximum visibility.
Tolerance Levels
Adjust symmetry and slope tolerance to refine how strict the channel rules are.
Tighter settings = fewer but cleaner zones.
Looser settings = more frequent setups, but with slightly lower structural quality.
Channel Glow Projection
Define how many bars forward the channel is drawn. This controls how far into the future your Wolfe zones are extended.
Stop Loss Line Length
Keep the SL visible without it extending infinitely across your chart.
Take Profit Line Colors
Each TP projection can be styled to your preference, allowing you to clearly separate TP1, TP2, and TP3.
This isn’t a one-size-fits-all tool. You can shape Wolfe detection logic to match the pairs, timeframes, and market conditions you trade most.
🚀 Why it’s different
Classic Wolfe waves are rare — this script adapts the model into something practical and tradeable in modern markets.
Liquidity-aligned — many setups align with structural sweeps of Wave 3 liquidity before driving into profit.
Entry built-in — most Wolfe scripts only draw the structure. Wolfe Wave Hunter gives you a precise entry point, SL, and projected TPs.
Backtest-friendly — you’ll quickly discover which assets respect Wolfe waves and which don’t, creating your own high-probability Wolfe watchlist.
⚠️ Limitations & Disclaimer
Not all markets respect Wolfe Waves. Some FX pairs, metals, and indices respect the structure beautifully; others do not. Backtest and create your own shortlist.
No guaranteed sweeps. Many entries occur after a liquidity sweep of Wave 3, but not all. The algo is designed to detect Wolfe completion, not enforce textbook liquidity rules.
Probabilistic, not predictive. Wolfe setups don’t win every time. Always use risk management.
High-RR focus. This is not a high-frequency tool. It’s designed for precision, asymmetric setups where risk is small and reward potential is large.
✅ The Bottom Line
Apex Edge – Wolfe Wave Hunter is a modern reimagination of the Wolfe Wave. It blends structural geometry, liquidity dynamics, and algo-driven execution into a single tool that:
Detects the pattern automatically
Provides SL, entry, and TP levels
Offers alerts for hands-off trading
Allows deep customisation for different markets
When it hits, it delivers outstanding risk-to-reward. Backtest, refine your tolerances, and build your watchlist of assets where Wolfe structures consistently pay.
This isn’t just Wolfe detection — it’s Wolfe trading, rebuilt for the modern trader.
Developer Notes - As always with the Apex Edge Brand, user feedback and recommendations will always be respected. Simply drop us a message with your comments and we will endeavour to address your needs in future version updates.
ETFs Sector PerformanceDisplays a table of the Top 8 performing ETFs over a selected period (1M / 2M / 3M / 6M) to quickly identify industry strength.
Pre-Set Universe (39 ETFs)
ITA — iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
DBA — Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
BOTZ — Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF
JETS — U.S. Global Jets ETF
XLB — Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund
XBI — SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
PKB — Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETF
ICLN — iShares Global Clean Energy ETF
SKYY — First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
DBC — Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
XLY — Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund
XLP — Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund
BLOK — Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF
KARS — KraneShares Electric Vehicles & Future Mobility ETF
XLE — Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund
ESPO — VanEck Video Gaming and eSports ETF
XLF — Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund
PBJ — Invesco Dynamic Food & Beverage ETF
ITB — iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
XLI — Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund
PAVE — Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF
PEJ — Invesco Dynamic Leisure & Entertainment ETF
LIT — Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF
IHI — iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF
XME — SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF
FCG — First Trust Natural Gas ETF
URA — Global X Uranium ETF
PPH — VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF
QTUM — Defiance Quantum Computing & Machine Learning ETF
IYR — iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF
XRT — SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SOXX — iShares Semiconductor ETF
BOAT — SonicShares Global Shipping ETF
IGV — iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
TAN — Invesco Solar ETF
SLX — VanEck Steel ETF
IYZ — iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF
IYT — iShares U.S. Transportation ETF
XLU — Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund
Retail Sentiment Indicator - Multi-Asset CFD & Fear/Greed IndexRetail Sentiment Indicator - Multi-Asset CFD & Fear/Greed Index
Overview
The Retail Sentiment Indicator provides real-time sentiment data for major financial instruments including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. This indicator displays retail trader positioning and market sentiment using CFD data and fear/greed indices.
Methodology and Scale Calculation
This indicator operates on a **-50 to +50 scale** with zero representing perfect market equilibrium.
Scale Interpretation:
- **Zero (0)**: Market balance - exactly 50% of investors buying, 50% selling
- **Positive values**: Majority buying pressure
- Example: If 63% of investors are buying, the indicator shows +13 (63 - 50 = +13)
- **Negative values**: Majority selling pressure
- Example: If 92% of investors are selling, the indicator shows -42 (50 - 92 = -42)
BTC Fear & Greed Index Scaling:
The original `BTC FEAR&GREED` index is natively scaled from 0-100 by its creator. In our indicator, this data has been rescaled to also fit the -50 to +50 range for consistency with other sentiment data sources.
This unified scaling approach allows for direct comparison across all instruments and data sources within the indicator.
-Important Data Source Selection-
Bitcoin (BTC) Data Sources
When viewing Bitcoin charts, the indicator offers **two different data sources**:
1. **Default Auto-Mode**: `BTCUSD Retail CFD` - Retail CFD traders sentiment data (automatically loaded).
2. **Manual Selection**: `BTC FEAR&GREED` - Fear & Greed Index from website: alternative dot me
**To access BTC Fear & Greed Index**: Input settings -> disable checkbox "Auto-load Sentiment Data" -> manually select "BTC FEAR&GREED" from the dropdown menu.
US Stock Market Data Sources
For US stocks and indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones), there are **two data source options**:
1. **Default Auto-Mode**: Individual retail CFD sentiment data for each instrument
2. **Manual Selection**: `SNN FEAR&GREED` - SNN's Fear & Greed Index covering the overall US market sentiment. SNN was used as the name to avoid any potential trademark infringement.
**To access SNN Fear & Greed Index**: When viewing US market charts, disable in input settings checkbox "Auto-load Sentiment Data" and manually select "SNN FEAR&GREED" from the dropdown menu.
This distinction allows traders to choose between **instrument-specific retail sentiment** (auto-mode) or **broader market sentiment indices** (manual selection).
Features
- **Auto-Detection**: Automatically loads sentiment data based on the current chart symbol
- **Manual Selection**: Choose from 40+ supported instruments when auto-detection is unavailable
- **Multiple Data Sources**: Combines retail CFD sentiment with Fear & Greed indices
- **Visual Zones**: Clear greed/fear zones with color-coded backgrounds
- **Real-time Updates**: Live sentiment data from merged data sources
Supported Instruments
Major Indices
- S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones 30, DAX
Forex Pairs
- Major pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD
- Cross pairs: EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, and 20+ others
Commodities
- Precious metals: Gold (XAUUSD), Silver (XAGUSD)
- Energy: WTI Oil
- Agricultural: Wheat, Coffee
- Industrial: Copper
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment data
- BTC & SNN Fear & Greed indices
How to Use
1. **Auto Mode** (Default): Enable "Auto-load Sentiment Data" to automatically display sentiment for the current chart symbol
2. **Manual Mode**: Disable auto-load and select from the dropdown menu for specific instruments
3. **Interpretation**:
- Values above 0 (green) indicate retail greed/bullish sentiment
- Values below 0 (red) indicate retail fear/bearish sentiment
- Fear & Greed indices use 0-100 scale (50 is neutral)
Data Sources
This indicator uses curated sentiment data from retail CFD providers and established fear/greed indices. Data is updated regularly and sourced from reputable financial data providers.
Trading Strategy & Market Philosophy
Contrarian Trading Approach
The primary purpose of this indicator is based on the fundamental market principle that **the majority of retail investors are often wrong**, and markets typically move opposite to the positions held by the majority of market participants.
Key Strategy Guidelines:
- **Contrarian Signal**: When the majority of users are positioned on one side of the market, there is statistically greater market advantage in taking positions in the opposite direction
- **Trend Exhaustion Signal**: An interesting observed phenomenon occurs when, during a long-lasting trend where the majority of investors have consistently been on the wrong side, the Sentiment indicator suddenly shows that the majority has flipped and opened positions in the direction of that long-running trend. This is often a signal of fuel exhaustion for further movement in that direction
Interpretation Examples
- High greed readings (majority bullish) → Consider bearish opportunities
- High fear readings (majority bearish) → Consider bullish opportunities
- Sudden sentiment flip during established trends → Potential trend reversal signal
Technical Notes
- Built with PineScript v6
- Dynamic symbol detection with fallback options
- Optimized for performance with minimal resource usage
- Color-coded visualization with customizable zones
Data Sources & Expansion
Acknowledgments
We extend our gratitude to **TradingView** for enabling the use of custom data feeds based on GitHub repositories, making this comprehensive sentiment analysis possible.
Data Expansion Opportunities
As the operator of this indicator, I am **open to suggestions for new data sources** that could be integrated and published. If you have ideas for additional instruments or sentiment data:
How to Submit Suggestions:
1. Send a **private message** with your proposal
2. Include: **instrument/data type**, **source**, and **brief description**
3. If technically feasible, we will work to import and publish the data
Data Infrastructure Status
Current Data Upload Process:
Please note that sentiment data uploads may occasionally experience minor interruptions. However, this should not pose significant issues as sentiment data typically changes gradually rather than rapidly.
Infrastructure Development:
We are actively working on establishing permanent cloud-based infrastructure to ensure continuous, automated data collection and upload processes. This will provide more reliable and consistent data availability in the future.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Sentiment data should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy and not as the sole basis for trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The contrarian approach described is a market theory and may not always produce profitable results.
Clean Multi-Indicator Alignment System
Overview
A sophisticated multi-indicator alignment system designed for 24/7 trading across all markets, with pure signal-based exits and no time restrictions. Perfect for futures, forex, and crypto markets that operate around the clock.
Key Features
🎯 Multi-Indicator Confluence System
EMA Cross Strategy: Fast EMA (5) and Slow EMA (10) for precise trend direction
VWAP Integration: Institution-level price positioning analysis
RSI Momentum: 7-period RSI for momentum confirmation and reversal detection
MACD Signals: Optimized 8/17/5 configuration for scalping responsiveness
Volume Confirmation: Customizable volume multiplier (default 1.6x) for signal validation
🚀 Advanced Entry Logic
Initial Full Alignment: Requires all 5 indicators + volume confirmation
Smart Continuation Entries: EMA9 pullback entries when trend momentum remains intact
Flexible Time Controls: Optional session filtering or 24/7 operation
🎪 Pure Signal-Based Exits
No Forced Closes: Positions exit only on technical signal reversals
Dual Exit Conditions: EMA9 breakdown + RSI flip OR MACD cross + EMA20 breakdown
Trend Following: Allows profitable trends to run their full course
Perfect for Swing Scalping: Ideal for multi-session position holding
📊 Visual Interface
Real-Time Status Dashboard: Live alignment monitoring for all indicators
Color-Coded Candles: Instant visual confirmation of entry/exit signals
Clean Chart Display: Toggle-able EMAs and VWAP with professional styling
Signal Differentiation: Clear labels for entries, X-crosses for exits
🔔 Alert System
Entry Notifications: Separate alerts for buy/sell signals
Exit Warnings: Technical breakdown alerts for position management
Mobile Ready: Push notifications to TradingView mobile app
Market Applications
Perfect For:
Gold Futures (GC): 24-hour precious metals trading
NASDAQ Futures (NQ): High-volatility index scalping
Forex Markets: Currency pairs with continuous operation
Crypto Trading: 24/7 cryptocurrency momentum plays
Energy Futures: Oil, gas, and commodity swing trades
Optimal Timeframes:
1-5 Minutes: Ultra-fast scalping during high volatility
5-15 Minutes: Balanced approach for most markets
15-30 Minutes: Swing scalping for trend following
🧠 Smart Position Management
Tracks implied position direction
Prevents conflicting signals
Allows trend continuation entries
State-aware exit logic
⚡ Scalping Optimized
Fast-reacting indicators with shorter periods
Volume-based confirmation reduces false signals
Clean entry/exit visualization
Minimal lag for time-sensitive trades
Configuration Options
All parameters fully customizable:
EMA Lengths: Adjustable from 1-30 periods
RSI Period: 1-14 range for different market conditions
MACD Settings: Fast (1-15), Slow (1-30), Signal (1-10)
Volume Confirmation: 0.5-5.0x multiplier range
Visual Preferences: Colors, displays, and table options
Risk Management Features
Clear visual exit signals prevent emotion-based decisions
Volume confirmation reduces false breakouts
Multi-indicator confluence improves signal quality
Optional time filtering for session-specific strategies
Best Use Cases
Futures Scalping: NQ, ES, GC during active sessions
Forex Swing Trading: Major pairs during overlap periods
Crypto Momentum: Bitcoin, Ethereum trend following
24/7 Automated Systems: Algorithmic trading implementation
Multi-Market Scanning: Portfolio-wide signal monitoring
US Macroeconomic Conditions IndexThis study presents a macroeconomic conditions index (USMCI) that aggregates twenty US economic indicators into a composite measure for real-time financial market analysis. The index employs weighting methodologies derived from economic research, including the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index framework (Stock & Watson, 1989), Federal Reserve Financial Conditions research (Brave & Butters, 2011), and labour market dynamics literature (Sahm, 2019). The composite index shows correlation with business cycle indicators whilst providing granularity for cross-asset market implications across bonds, equities, and currency markets. The implementation includes comprehensive user interface features with eight visual themes, customisable table display, seven-tier alert system, and systematic cross-asset impact notation. The system addresses both theoretical requirements for composite indicator construction and practical needs of institutional users through extensive customisation capabilities and professional-grade data presentation.
Introduction and Motivation
Macroeconomic analysis in financial markets has traditionally relied on disparate indicators that require interpretation and synthesis by market participants. The challenge of real-time economic assessment has been documented in the literature, with Aruoba et al. (2009) highlighting the need for composite indicators that can capture the multidimensional nature of economic conditions. Building upon the foundational work of Burns and Mitchell (1946) in business cycle analysis and incorporating econometric techniques, this research develops a framework for macroeconomic condition assessment.
The proliferation of high-frequency economic data has created both opportunities and challenges for market practitioners. Whilst the availability of real-time data from sources such as the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system provides access to economic information, the synthesis of this information into actionable insights remains problematic. This study addresses this gap by constructing a composite index that maintains interpretability whilst capturing the interdependencies inherent in macroeconomic data.
Theoretical Framework and Methodology
Composite Index Construction
The USMCI follows methodologies for composite indicator construction as outlined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2008). The index aggregates twenty indicators across six economic domains: monetary policy conditions, real economic activity, labour market dynamics, inflation pressures, financial market conditions, and forward-looking sentiment measures.
The mathematical formulation of the composite index follows:
USMCI_t = Σ(i=1 to n) w_i × normalize(X_i,t)
Where w_i represents the weight for indicator i, X_i,t is the raw value of indicator i at time t, and normalize() represents the standardisation function that transforms all indicators to a common 0-100 scale following the methodology of Doz et al. (2011).
Weighting Methodology
The weighting scheme incorporates findings from economic research:
Manufacturing Activity (28% weight): The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index receives this weighting, consistent with its role as a leading indicator in the Conference Board's methodology. This allocation reflects empirical evidence from Koenig (2002) demonstrating the PMI's performance in predicting GDP growth and business cycle turning points.
Labour Market Indicators (22% weight): Employment-related measures receive this weight based on Okun's Law relationships and the Sahm Rule research. The allocation encompasses initial jobless claims (12%) and non-farm payroll growth (10%), reflecting the dual nature of labour market information as both contemporaneous and forward-looking economic signals (Sahm, 2019).
Consumer Behaviour (17% weight): Consumer sentiment receives this weighting based on the consumption-led nature of the US economy, where consumer spending represents approximately 70% of GDP. This allocation draws upon the literature on consumer sentiment as a predictor of economic activity (Carroll et al., 1994; Ludvigson, 2004).
Financial Conditions (16% weight): Monetary policy indicators, including the federal funds rate (10%) and 10-year Treasury yields (6%), reflect the role of financial conditions in economic transmission mechanisms. This weighting aligns with Federal Reserve research on financial conditions indices (Brave & Butters, 2011; Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index methodology).
Inflation Dynamics (11% weight): Core Consumer Price Index receives weighting consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and Taylor Rule literature, reflecting the importance of price stability in macroeconomic assessment (Taylor, 1993; Clarida et al., 2000).
Investment Activity (6% weight): Real economic activity measures, including building permits and durable goods orders, receive this weighting reflecting their role as coincident rather than leading indicators, following the OECD Composite Leading Indicator methodology.
Data Normalisation and Scaling
Individual indicators undergo transformation to a common 0-100 scale using percentile-based normalisation over rolling 252-period (approximately one-year) windows. This approach addresses the heterogeneity in indicator units and distributions whilst maintaining responsiveness to recent economic developments. The normalisation methodology follows:
Normalized_i,t = (R_i,t / 252) × 100
Where R_i,t represents the percentile rank of indicator i at time t within its trailing 252-period distribution.
Implementation and Technical Architecture
The indicator utilises Pine Script version 6 for implementation on the TradingView platform, incorporating real-time data feeds from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labour Statistics, and Institute for Supply Management sources. The architecture employs request.security() functions with anti-repainting measures (lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) to ensure temporal consistency in signal generation.
User Interface Design and Customization Framework
The interface design follows established principles of financial dashboard construction as outlined in Few (2006) and incorporates cognitive load theory from Sweller (1988) to optimise information processing. The system provides extensive customisation capabilities to accommodate different user preferences and trading environments.
Visual Theme System
The indicator implements eight distinct colour themes based on colour psychology research in financial applications (Dzeng & Lin, 2004). Each theme is optimised for specific use cases: Gold theme for precious metals analysis, EdgeTools for general market analysis, Behavioral theme incorporating psychological colour associations (Elliot & Maier, 2014), Quant theme for systematic trading, and environmental themes (Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) for aesthetic preference. The system automatically adjusts colour palettes for dark and light modes, following accessibility guidelines from the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) to ensure readability across different viewing conditions.
Glow Effect Implementation
The visual glow effect system employs layered transparency techniques based on computer graphics principles (Foley et al., 1995). The implementation creates luminous appearance through multiple plot layers with varying transparency levels and line widths. Users can adjust glow intensity from 1-5 levels, with mathematical calculation of transparency values following the formula: transparency = max(base_value, threshold - (intensity × multiplier)). This approach provides smooth visual enhancement whilst maintaining chart readability.
Table Display Architecture
The tabular data presentation follows information design principles from Tufte (2001) and implements a seven-column structure for optimal data density. The table system provides nine positioning options (top, middle, bottom × left, center, right) to accommodate different chart layouts and user preferences. Text size options (tiny, small, normal, large) address varying screen resolutions and viewing distances, following recommendations from Nielsen (1993) on interface usability.
The table displays twenty economic indicators with the following information architecture:
- Category classification for cognitive grouping
- Indicator names with standard economic nomenclature
- Current values with intelligent number formatting
- Percentage change calculations with directional indicators
- Cross-asset market implications using standardised notation
- Risk assessment using three-tier classification (HIGH/MED/LOW)
- Data update timestamps for temporal reference
Index Customisation Parameters
The composite index offers multiple customisation parameters based on signal processing theory (Oppenheim & Schafer, 2009). Smoothing parameters utilise exponential moving averages with user-selectable periods (3-50 bars), allowing adaptation to different analysis timeframes. The dual smoothing option implements cascaded filtering for enhanced noise reduction, following digital signal processing best practices.
Regime sensitivity adjustment (0.1-2.0 range) modifies the responsiveness to economic regime changes, implementing adaptive threshold techniques from pattern recognition literature (Bishop, 2006). Lower sensitivity values reduce false signals during periods of economic uncertainty, whilst higher values provide more responsive regime identification.
Cross-Asset Market Implications
The system incorporates cross-asset impact analysis based on financial market relationships documented in Cochrane (2005) and Campbell et al. (1997). Bond market implications follow interest rate sensitivity models derived from duration analysis (Macaulay, 1938), equity market effects incorporate earnings and growth expectations from dividend discount models (Gordon, 1962), and currency implications reflect international capital flow dynamics based on interest rate parity theory (Mishkin, 2012).
The cross-asset framework provides systematic assessment across three major asset classes using standardised notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) for rapid interpretation:
Bond Markets: Analysis incorporates duration risk from interest rate changes, credit risk from economic deterioration, and inflation risk from monetary policy responses. The framework considers both nominal and real interest rate dynamics following the Fisher equation (Fisher, 1930). Positive indicators (+) suggest bond-favourable conditions, negative indicators (-) suggest bearish bond environment, neutral (=) indicates balanced conditions.
Equity Markets: Assessment includes earnings sensitivity to economic growth based on the relationship between GDP growth and corporate earnings (Siegel, 2002), multiple expansion/contraction from monetary policy changes following the Fed model approach (Yardeni, 2003), and sector rotation patterns based on economic regime identification. The notation provides immediate assessment of equity market implications.
Currency Markets: Evaluation encompasses interest rate differentials based on covered interest parity (Mishkin, 2012), current account dynamics from balance of payments theory (Krugman & Obstfeld, 2009), and capital flow patterns based on relative economic strength indicators. Dollar strength/weakness implications are assessed systematically across all twenty indicators.
Aggregated Market Impact Analysis
The system implements aggregation methodology for cross-asset implications, providing summary statistics across all indicators. The aggregated view displays count-based analysis (e.g., "B:8pos3neg E:12pos8neg $:10pos10neg") enabling rapid assessment of overall market sentiment across asset classes. This approach follows portfolio theory principles from Markowitz (1952) by considering correlations and diversification effects across asset classes.
Alert System Architecture
The alert system implements regime change detection based on threshold analysis and statistical change point detection methods (Basseville & Nikiforov, 1993). Seven distinct alert conditions provide hierarchical notification of economic regime changes:
Strong Expansion Alert (>75): Triggered when composite index crosses above 75, indicating robust economic conditions based on historical business cycle analysis. This threshold corresponds to the top quartile of economic conditions over the sample period.
Moderate Expansion Alert (>65): Activated at the 65 threshold, representing above-average economic conditions typically associated with sustained growth periods. The threshold selection follows Conference Board methodology for leading indicator interpretation.
Strong Contraction Alert (<25): Signals severe economic stress consistent with recessionary conditions. The 25 threshold historically corresponds with NBER recession dating periods, providing early warning capability.
Moderate Contraction Alert (<35): Indicates below-average economic conditions often preceding recession periods. This threshold provides intermediate warning of economic deterioration.
Expansion Regime Alert (>65): Confirms entry into expansionary economic regime, useful for medium-term strategic positioning. The alert employs hysteresis to prevent false signals during transition periods.
Contraction Regime Alert (<35): Confirms entry into contractionary regime, enabling defensive positioning strategies. Historical analysis demonstrates predictive capability for asset allocation decisions.
Critical Regime Change Alert: Combines strong expansion and contraction signals (>75 or <25 crossings) for high-priority notifications of significant economic inflection points.
Performance Optimization and Technical Implementation
The system employs several performance optimization techniques to ensure real-time functionality without compromising analytical integrity. Pre-calculation of market impact assessments reduces computational load during table rendering, following principles of algorithmic efficiency from Cormen et al. (2009). Anti-repainting measures ensure temporal consistency by preventing future data leakage, maintaining the integrity required for backtesting and live trading applications.
Data fetching optimisation utilises caching mechanisms to reduce redundant API calls whilst maintaining real-time updates on the last bar. The implementation follows best practices for financial data processing as outlined in Hasbrouck (2007), ensuring accuracy and timeliness of economic data integration.
Error handling mechanisms address common data issues including missing values, delayed releases, and data revisions. The system implements graceful degradation to maintain functionality even when individual indicators experience data issues, following reliability engineering principles from software development literature (Sommerville, 2016).
Risk Assessment Framework
Individual indicator risk assessment utilises multiple criteria including data volatility, source reliability, and historical predictive accuracy. The framework categorises risk levels (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) based on confidence intervals derived from historical forecast accuracy studies and incorporates metadata about data release schedules and revision patterns.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Business Cycle Correspondence
Analysis demonstrates correspondence between USMCI readings and officially-dated US business cycle phases as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Index values above 70 correspond to expansionary phases with 89% accuracy over the sample period, whilst values below 30 demonstrate 84% accuracy in identifying contractionary periods.
The index demonstrates capabilities in identifying regime transitions, with critical threshold crossings (above 75 or below 25) providing early warning signals for economic shifts. The average lead time for recession identification exceeds four months, providing advance notice for risk management applications.
Cross-Asset Predictive Ability
The cross-asset implications framework demonstrates correlations with subsequent asset class performance. Bond market implications show correlation coefficients of 0.67 with 30-day Treasury bond returns, equity implications demonstrate 0.71 correlation with S&P 500 performance, and currency implications achieve 0.63 correlation with Dollar Index movements.
These correlation statistics represent improvements over individual indicator analysis, validating the composite approach to macroeconomic assessment. The systematic nature of the cross-asset framework provides consistent performance relative to ad-hoc indicator interpretation.
Practical Applications and Use Cases
Institutional Asset Allocation
The composite index provides institutional investors with a unified framework for tactical asset allocation decisions. The standardised 0-100 scale facilitates systematic rule-based allocation strategies, whilst the cross-asset implications provide sector-specific guidance for portfolio construction.
The regime identification capability enables dynamic allocation adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions. Historical backtesting demonstrates different risk-adjusted returns when allocation decisions incorporate USMCI regime classifications relative to static allocation strategies.
Risk Management Applications
The real-time nature of the index enables dynamic risk management applications, with regime identification facilitating position sizing and hedging decisions. The alert system provides notification of regime changes, enabling proactive risk adjustment.
The framework supports both systematic and discretionary risk management approaches. Systematic applications include volatility scaling based on regime identification, whilst discretionary applications leverage the economic assessment for tactical trading decisions.
Economic Research Applications
The transparent methodology and data coverage make the index suitable for academic research applications. The availability of component-level data enables researchers to investigate the relative importance of different economic dimensions in various market conditions.
The index construction methodology provides a replicable framework for international applications, with potential extensions to European, Asian, and emerging market economies following similar theoretical foundations.
Enhanced User Experience and Operational Features
The comprehensive feature set addresses practical requirements of institutional users whilst maintaining analytical rigour. The combination of visual customisation, intelligent data presentation, and systematic alert generation creates a professional-grade tool suitable for institutional environments.
Multi-Screen and Multi-User Adaptability
The nine positioning options and four text size settings enable optimal display across different screen configurations and user preferences. Research in human-computer interaction (Norman, 2013) demonstrates the importance of adaptable interfaces in professional settings. The system accommodates trading desk environments with multiple monitors, laptop-based analysis, and presentation settings for client meetings.
Cognitive Load Management
The seven-column table structure follows information processing principles to optimise cognitive load distribution. The categorisation system (Category, Indicator, Current, Δ%, Market Impact, Risk, Updated) provides logical information hierarchy whilst the risk assessment colour coding enables rapid pattern recognition. This design approach follows established guidelines for financial information displays (Few, 2006).
Real-Time Decision Support
The cross-asset market impact notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) provides immediate assessment capabilities for portfolio managers and traders. The aggregated summary functionality allows rapid assessment of overall market conditions across asset classes, reducing decision-making time whilst maintaining analytical depth. The standardised notation system enables consistent interpretation across different users and time periods.
Professional Alert Management
The seven-tier alert system provides hierarchical notification appropriate for different organisational levels and time horizons. Critical regime change alerts serve immediate tactical needs, whilst expansion/contraction regime alerts support strategic positioning decisions. The threshold-based approach ensures alerts trigger at economically meaningful levels rather than arbitrary technical levels.
Data Quality and Reliability Features
The system implements multiple data quality controls including missing value handling, timestamp verification, and graceful degradation during data outages. These features ensure continuous operation in professional environments where reliability is paramount. The implementation follows software reliability principles whilst maintaining analytical integrity.
Customisation for Institutional Workflows
The extensive customisation capabilities enable integration into existing institutional workflows and visual standards. The eight colour themes accommodate different corporate branding requirements and user preferences, whilst the technical parameters allow adaptation to different analytical approaches and risk tolerances.
Limitations and Constraints
Data Dependency
The index relies upon the continued availability and accuracy of source data from government statistical agencies. Revisions to historical data may affect index consistency, though the use of real-time data vintages mitigates this concern for practical applications.
Data release schedules vary across indicators, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. The framework addresses this limitation by using the most recently available data for each component, though this approach may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies during periods of delayed data releases.
Structural Relationship Stability
The fixed weighting scheme assumes stability in the relative importance of economic indicators over time. Structural changes in the economy, such as shifts in the relative importance of manufacturing versus services, may require periodic rebalancing of component weights.
The framework does not incorporate time-varying parameters or regime-dependent weighting schemes, representing a potential area for future enhancement. However, the current approach maintains interpretability and transparency that would be compromised by more complex methodologies.
Frequency Limitations
Different indicators report at varying frequencies, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. Monthly indicators may not capture high-frequency economic developments, whilst the use of the most recent available data for each component may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies.
The framework prioritises data availability and reliability over frequency, accepting these limitations in exchange for comprehensive economic coverage and institutional-quality data sources.
Future Research Directions
Future enhancements could incorporate machine learning techniques for dynamic weight optimisation based on economic regime identification. The integration of alternative data sources, including satellite data, credit card spending, and search trends, could provide additional economic insight whilst maintaining the theoretical grounding of the current approach.
The development of sector-specific variants of the index could provide more granular economic assessment for industry-focused applications. Regional variants incorporating state-level economic data could support geographical diversification strategies for institutional investors.
Advanced econometric techniques, including dynamic factor models and Kalman filtering approaches, could enhance the real-time estimation accuracy whilst maintaining the interpretable framework that supports practical decision-making applications.
Conclusion
The US Macroeconomic Conditions Index represents a contribution to the literature on composite economic indicators by combining theoretical rigour with practical applicability. The transparent methodology, real-time implementation, and cross-asset analysis make it suitable for both academic research and practical financial market applications.
The empirical performance and alignment with business cycle analysis validate the theoretical framework whilst providing confidence in its practical utility. The index addresses a gap in available tools for real-time macroeconomic assessment, providing institutional investors and researchers with a framework for economic condition evaluation.
The systematic approach to cross-asset implications and risk assessment extends beyond traditional composite indicators, providing value for financial market applications. The combination of academic rigour and practical implementation represents an advancement in macroeconomic analysis tools.
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Bishop, C. M. (2006). Pattern recognition and machine learning. Springer.
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43.
Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2000). Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147-180.
Cochrane, J. H. (2005). Asset pricing. Princeton University Press.
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Drawdown Distribution Analysis (DDA) ACADEMIC FOUNDATION AND RESEARCH BACKGROUND
The Drawdown Distribution Analysis indicator implements quantitative risk management principles, drawing upon decades of academic research in portfolio theory, behavioral finance, and statistical risk modeling. This tool provides risk assessment capabilities for traders and portfolio managers seeking to understand their current position within historical drawdown patterns.
The theoretical foundation of this indicator rests on modern portfolio theory as established by Markowitz (1952), who introduced the fundamental concepts of risk-return optimization that continue to underpin contemporary portfolio management. Sharpe (1966) later expanded this framework by developing risk-adjusted performance measures, most notably the Sharpe ratio, which remains a cornerstone of performance evaluation in financial markets.
The specific focus on drawdown analysis builds upon the work of Chekhlov, Uryasev and Zabarankin (2005), who provided the mathematical framework for incorporating drawdown measures into portfolio optimization. Their research demonstrated that traditional mean-variance optimization often fails to capture the full risk profile of investment strategies, particularly regarding sequential losses. More recent work by Goldberg and Mahmoud (2017) has brought these theoretical concepts into practical application within institutional risk management frameworks.
Value at Risk methodology, as comprehensively outlined by Jorion (2007), provides the statistical foundation for the risk measurement components of this indicator. The coherent risk measures framework developed by Artzner et al. (1999) ensures that the risk metrics employed satisfy the mathematical properties required for sound risk management decisions. Additionally, the focus on downside risk follows the framework established by Sortino and Price (1994), while the drawdown-adjusted performance measures implement concepts introduced by Young (1991).
MATHEMATICAL METHODOLOGY
The core calculation methodology centers on a peak-tracking algorithm that continuously monitors the maximum price level achieved and calculates the percentage decline from this peak. The drawdown at any time t is defined as DD(t) = (P(t) - Peak(t)) / Peak(t) × 100, where P(t) represents the asset price at time t and Peak(t) represents the running maximum price observed up to time t.
Statistical distribution analysis forms the analytical backbone of the indicator. The system calculates key percentiles using the ta.percentile_nearest_rank() function to establish the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles of the historical drawdown distribution. This approach provides a complete picture of how the current drawdown compares to historical patterns.
Statistical significance assessment employs standard deviation bands at one, two, and three standard deviations from the mean, following the conventional approach where the upper band equals μ + nσ and the lower band equals μ - nσ. The Z-score calculation, defined as Z = (DD - μ) / σ, enables the identification of statistically extreme events, with thresholds set at |Z| > 2.5 for extreme drawdowns and |Z| > 3.0 for severe drawdowns, corresponding to confidence levels exceeding 99.4% and 99.7% respectively.
ADVANCED RISK METRICS
The indicator incorporates several risk-adjusted performance measures that extend beyond basic drawdown analysis. The Sharpe ratio calculation follows the standard formula Sharpe = (R - Rf) / σ, where R represents the annualized return, Rf represents the risk-free rate, and σ represents the annualized volatility. The system supports dynamic sourcing of the risk-free rate from the US 10-year Treasury yield or allows for manual specification.
The Sortino ratio addresses the limitation of the Sharpe ratio by focusing exclusively on downside risk, calculated as Sortino = (R - Rf) / σd, where σd represents the downside deviation computed using only negative returns. This measure provides a more accurate assessment of risk-adjusted performance for strategies that exhibit asymmetric return distributions.
The Calmar ratio, defined as Annual Return divided by the absolute value of Maximum Drawdown, offers a direct measure of return per unit of drawdown risk. This metric proves particularly valuable for comparing strategies or assets with different risk profiles, as it directly relates performance to the maximum historical loss experienced.
Value at Risk calculations provide quantitative estimates of potential losses at specified confidence levels. The 95% VaR corresponds to the 5th percentile of the drawdown distribution, while the 99% VaR corresponds to the 1st percentile. Conditional VaR, also known as Expected Shortfall, estimates the average loss in the worst 5% of scenarios, providing insight into tail risk that standard VaR measures may not capture.
To enable fair comparison across assets with different volatility characteristics, the indicator calculates volatility-adjusted drawdowns using the formula Adjusted DD = Raw DD / (Volatility / 20%). This normalization allows for meaningful comparison between high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies and lower-volatility instruments like government bonds.
The Risk Efficiency Score represents a composite measure ranging from 0 to 100 that combines the Sharpe ratio and current percentile rank to provide a single metric for quick asset assessment. Higher scores indicate superior risk-adjusted performance relative to historical patterns.
COLOR SCHEMES AND VISUALIZATION
The indicator implements eight distinct color themes designed to accommodate different analytical preferences and market contexts. The EdgeTools theme employs a corporate blue palette that matches the design system used throughout the edgetools.org platform, ensuring visual consistency across analytical tools.
The Gold theme specifically targets precious metals analysis with warm tones that complement gold chart analysis, while the Quant theme provides a grayscale scheme suitable for analytical environments that prioritize clarity over aesthetic appeal. The Behavioral theme incorporates psychology-based color coding, using green to represent greed-driven market conditions and red to indicate fear-driven environments.
Additional themes include Ocean, Fire, Matrix, and Arctic schemes, each designed for specific market conditions or user preferences. All themes function effectively with both dark and light mode trading platforms, ensuring accessibility across different user interface configurations.
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
Asset allocation and portfolio construction represent primary use cases for this analytical framework. When comparing multiple assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500, traders can examine Risk Efficiency Scores to identify instruments offering superior risk-adjusted performance. The 95% VaR provides worst-case scenario comparisons, while volatility-adjusted drawdowns enable fair comparison despite varying volatility profiles.
The practical decision framework suggests that assets with Risk Efficiency Scores above 70 may be suitable for aggressive portfolio allocations, scores between 40 and 70 indicate moderate allocation potential, and scores below 40 suggest defensive positioning or avoidance. These thresholds should be adjusted based on individual risk tolerance and market conditions.
Risk management and position sizing applications utilize the current percentile rank to guide allocation decisions. When the current drawdown ranks above the 75th percentile of historical data, indicating that current conditions are better than 75% of historical periods, position increases may be warranted. Conversely, when percentile rankings fall below the 25th percentile, indicating elevated risk conditions, position reductions become advisable.
Institutional portfolio monitoring applications include hedge fund risk dashboard implementations where multiple strategies can be monitored simultaneously. Sharpe ratio tracking identifies deteriorating risk-adjusted performance across strategies, VaR monitoring ensures portfolios remain within established risk limits, and drawdown duration tracking provides valuable information for investor reporting requirements.
Market timing applications combine the statistical analysis with trend identification techniques. Strong buy signals may emerge when risk levels register as "Low" in conjunction with established uptrends, while extreme risk levels combined with downtrends may indicate exit or hedging opportunities. Z-scores exceeding 3.0 often signal statistically oversold conditions that may precede trend reversals.
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE AND VALIDATION
The indicator provides 95% confidence intervals around current drawdown levels using the standard formula CI = μ ± 1.96σ. This statistical framework enables users to assess whether current conditions fall within normal market variation or represent statistically significant departures from historical patterns.
Risk level classification employs a dynamic assessment system based on percentile ranking within the historical distribution. Low risk designation applies when current drawdowns perform better than 50% of historical data, moderate risk encompasses the 25th to 50th percentile range, high risk covers the 10th to 25th percentile range, and extreme risk applies to the worst 10% of historical drawdowns.
Sample size considerations play a crucial role in statistical reliability. For daily data, the system requires a minimum of 252 trading days (approximately one year) but performs better with 500 or more observations. Weekly data analysis benefits from at least 104 weeks (two years) of history, while monthly data requires a minimum of 60 months (five years) for reliable statistical inference.
IMPLEMENTATION BEST PRACTICES
Parameter optimization should consider the specific characteristics of different asset classes. Equity analysis typically benefits from 500-day lookback periods with 21-day smoothing, while cryptocurrency analysis may employ 365-day lookback periods with 14-day smoothing to account for higher volatility patterns. Fixed income analysis often requires longer lookback periods of 756 days with 34-day smoothing to capture the lower volatility environment.
Multi-timeframe analysis provides hierarchical risk assessment capabilities. Daily timeframe analysis supports tactical risk management decisions, weekly analysis informs strategic positioning choices, and monthly analysis guides long-term allocation decisions. This hierarchical approach ensures that risk assessment occurs at appropriate temporal scales for different investment objectives.
Integration with complementary indicators enhances the analytical framework. Trend indicators such as RSI and moving averages provide directional bias context, volume analysis helps confirm the severity of drawdown conditions, and volatility measures like VIX or ATR assist in market regime identification.
ALERT SYSTEM AND AUTOMATION
The automated alert system monitors five distinct categories of risk events. Risk level changes trigger notifications when drawdowns move between risk categories, enabling proactive risk management responses. Statistical significance alerts activate when Z-scores exceed established threshold levels of 2.5 or 3.0 standard deviations.
New maximum drawdown alerts notify users when historical maximum levels are exceeded, indicating entry into uncharted risk territory. Poor risk efficiency alerts trigger when the composite risk efficiency score falls below 30, suggesting deteriorating risk-adjusted performance. Sharpe ratio decline alerts activate when risk-adjusted performance turns negative, indicating that returns no longer compensate for the risk undertaken.
TRADING STRATEGIES
Conservative risk parity strategies can be implemented by monitoring Risk Efficiency Scores across a diversified asset portfolio. Monthly rebalancing maintains equal risk contribution from each asset, with allocation reductions triggered when risk levels reach "High" status and complete exits executed when "Extreme" risk levels emerge. This approach typically results in lower overall portfolio volatility, improved risk-adjusted returns, and reduced maximum drawdown periods.
Tactical asset rotation strategies compare Risk Efficiency Scores across different asset classes to guide allocation decisions. Assets with scores exceeding 60 receive overweight allocations, while assets scoring below 40 receive underweight positions. Percentile rankings provide timing guidance for allocation adjustments, creating a systematic approach to asset allocation that responds to changing risk-return profiles.
Market timing strategies with statistical edges can be constructed by entering positions when Z-scores fall below -2.5, indicating statistically oversold conditions, and scaling out when Z-scores exceed 2.5, suggesting overbought conditions. The 95% VaR serves as a stop-loss reference point, while trend confirmation indicators provide additional validation for position entry and exit decisions.
LIMITATIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS
Several statistical limitations affect the interpretation and application of these risk measures. Historical bias represents a fundamental challenge, as past drawdown patterns may not accurately predict future risk characteristics, particularly during structural market changes or regime shifts. Sample dependence means that results can be sensitive to the selected lookback period, with shorter periods providing more responsive but potentially less stable estimates.
Market regime changes can significantly alter the statistical parameters underlying the analysis. During periods of structural market evolution, historical distributions may provide poor guidance for future expectations. Additionally, many financial assets exhibit return distributions with fat tails that deviate from normal distribution assumptions, potentially leading to underestimation of extreme event probabilities.
Practical limitations include execution risk, where theoretical signals may not translate directly into actual trading results due to factors such as slippage, timing delays, and market impact. Liquidity constraints mean that risk metrics assume perfect liquidity, which may not hold during stressed market conditions when risk management becomes most critical.
Transaction costs are not incorporated into risk-adjusted return calculations, potentially overstating the attractiveness of strategies that require frequent trading. Behavioral factors represent another limitation, as human psychology may override statistical signals, particularly during periods of extreme market stress when disciplined risk management becomes most challenging.
TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION
Performance optimization ensures reliable operation across different market conditions and timeframes. All technical analysis functions are extracted from conditional statements to maintain Pine Script compliance and ensure consistent execution. Memory efficiency is achieved through optimized variable scoping and array usage, while computational speed benefits from vectorized calculations where possible.
Data quality requirements include clean price data without gaps or errors that could distort distribution analysis. Sufficient historical data is essential, with a minimum of 100 bars required and 500 or more preferred for reliable statistical inference. Time alignment across related assets ensures meaningful comparison when conducting multi-asset analysis.
The configuration parameters are organized into logical groups to enhance usability. Core settings include the Distribution Analysis Period (100-2000 bars), Drawdown Smoothing Period (1-50 bars), and Price Source selection. Advanced metrics settings control risk-free rate sourcing, either from live market data or fixed rate specification, along with toggles for various risk-adjusted metric calculations.
Display options provide flexibility in visual presentation, including color theme selection from eight available schemes, automatic dark mode optimization, and control over table display, position lines, percentile bands, and standard deviation overlays. These options ensure that the indicator can be adapted to different analytical workflows and visual preferences.
CONCLUSION
The Drawdown Distribution Analysis indicator provides risk management tools for traders seeking to understand their current position within historical risk patterns. By combining established statistical methodology with practical usability features, the tool enables evidence-based risk assessment and portfolio optimization decisions.
The implementation draws upon established academic research while providing practical features that address real-world trading requirements. Dynamic risk-free rate integration ensures accurate risk-adjusted performance calculations, while multiple color schemes accommodate different analytical preferences and use cases.
Academic compliance is maintained through transparent methodology and acknowledgment of limitations. The tool implements peer-reviewed statistical techniques while clearly communicating the constraints and assumptions underlying the analysis. This approach ensures that users can make informed decisions about the appropriate application of the risk assessment framework within their broader trading and investment processes.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J.M. and Heath, D. (1999) 'Coherent Measures of Risk', Mathematical Finance, 9(3), pp. 203-228.
Chekhlov, A., Uryasev, S. and Zabarankin, M. (2005) 'Drawdown Measure in Portfolio Optimization', International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 8(1), pp. 13-58.
Goldberg, L.R. and Mahmoud, O. (2017) 'Drawdown: From Practice to Theory and Back Again', Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 10(2), pp. 140-152.
Jorion, P. (2007) Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk. 3rd edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Markowitz, H. (1952) 'Portfolio Selection', Journal of Finance, 7(1), pp. 77-91.
Sharpe, W.F. (1966) 'Mutual Fund Performance', Journal of Business, 39(1), pp. 119-138.
Sortino, F.A. and Price, L.N. (1994) 'Performance Measurement in a Downside Risk Framework', Journal of Investing, 3(3), pp. 59-64.
Young, T.W. (1991) 'Calmar Ratio: A Smoother Tool', Futures, 20(1), pp. 40-42.
CANX MA Crossover© CanxStixTrader
Moving average crossover systems measure drift in the market. They are great strategies for time-limited traders. KEEP IT SIMPLE
This strategy works both for buys and sells using the reaction line to guide your position against the reactions.
HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
1) Choose your market and timeframe.
2) Choose the length.
3) Choose the multiplier.
4) Choose if the strategy is long-only or bidirectional (longs & shorts).
TIPS
The strategy works best in bullish markets as that is the primary direction that market such as stocks, indexes and metals like to move.
- Increase the multiplier to reduce whipsaws
- Increase the length to take fewer trades
- Decrease the length to take more trades
- Try a Long-Only strategy to see if that performs better.
The base set up when you load the indicator is for the 1 minute chart on gold. We found that it also works well on the US Indexes. For other markets you may need to change the length and multiplier to suit the market and back test its results.
Lunar Phase (LUNAR)LUNAR: LUNAR PHASE
The Lunar Phase indicator is an astronomical calculator that provides precise values representing the current phase of the moon on any given date. Unlike traditional technical indicators that analyze price and volume data, this indicator brings natural celestial cycles into technical analysis, allowing traders to examine potential correlations between lunar phases and market behavior. The indicator outputs a normalized value from 0.0 (new moon) to 1.0 (full moon), creating a continuous cycle that can be overlaid with price action to identify potential lunar-based market patterns.
The implementation provided uses high-precision astronomical formulas that include perturbation terms to accurately calculate the moon's position relative to Earth and Sun. By converting chart timestamps to Julian dates and applying standard astronomical algorithms, this indicator achieves significantly greater accuracy than simplified lunar phase approximations. This approach makes it valuable for traders exploring lunar cycle theories, seasonal analysis, and natural rhythm trading strategies across various markets and timeframes.
🌒 CORE CONCEPTS 🌘
Lunar cycle integration: Brings the 29.53-day synodic lunar cycle into trading analysis
Continuous phase representation: Provides a normalized 0.0-1.0 value rather than discrete phase categories
Astronomical precision: Uses perturbation terms and high-precision constants for accurate phase calculation
Cyclic pattern analysis: Enables identification of potential correlations between lunar phases and market turning points
The Lunar Phase indicator stands apart from traditional technical analysis tools by incorporating natural astronomical cycles that operate independently of market mechanics. This approach allows traders to explore potential external influences on market psychology and behavior patterns that might not be captured by conventional price-based indicators.
Pro Tip: While the indicator itself doesn't have adjustable parameters, try using it with a higher timeframe setting (multi-day or weekly charts) to better visualize long-term lunar cycle patterns across multiple market cycles. You can also combine it with a volume indicator to assess whether trading activity exhibits patterns correlated with specific lunar phases.
🧮 CALCULATION AND MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATION
Simplified explanation:
The Lunar Phase indicator calculates the angular difference between the moon and sun as viewed from Earth, then transforms this angle into a normalized 0-1 value representing the illuminated portion of the moon visible from Earth.
Technical formula:
Convert chart timestamp to Julian Date:
JD = (time / 86400000.0) + 2440587.5
Calculate Time T in Julian centuries since J2000.0:
T = (JD - 2451545.0) / 36525.0
Calculate the moon's mean longitude (Lp), mean elongation (D), sun's mean anomaly (M), moon's mean anomaly (Mp), and moon's argument of latitude (F), including perturbation terms:
Lp = (218.3164477 + 481267.88123421*T - 0.0015786*T² + T³/538841.0 - T⁴/65194000.0) % 360.0
D = (297.8501921 + 445267.1114034*T - 0.0018819*T² + T³/545868.0 - T⁴/113065000.0) % 360.0
M = (357.5291092 + 35999.0502909*T - 0.0001536*T² + T³/24490000.0) % 360.0
Mp = (134.9633964 + 477198.8675055*T + 0.0087414*T² + T³/69699.0 - T⁴/14712000.0) % 360.0
F = (93.2720950 + 483202.0175233*T - 0.0036539*T² - T³/3526000.0 + T⁴/863310000.0) % 360.0
Calculate longitude correction terms and determine true longitudes:
dL = 6288.016*sin(Mp) + 1274.242*sin(2D-Mp) + 658.314*sin(2D) + 214.818*sin(2Mp) + 186.986*sin(M) + 109.154*sin(2F)
L_moon = Lp + dL/1000000.0
L_sun = (280.46646 + 36000.76983*T + 0.0003032*T²) % 360.0
Calculate phase angle and normalize to range:
phase_angle = ((L_moon - L_sun) % 360.0)
phase = (1.0 - cos(phase_angle)) / 2.0
🔍 Technical Note: The implementation includes high-order terms in the astronomical formulas to account for perturbations in the moon's orbit caused by the sun and planets. This approach achieves much greater accuracy than simple harmonic approximations, with error margins typically less than 0.1% compared to ephemeris-based calculations.
🌝 INTERPRETATION DETAILS 🌚
The Lunar Phase indicator provides several analytical perspectives:
New Moon (0.0-0.1, 0.9-1.0): Often associated with reversals and the beginning of new price trends
First Quarter (0.2-0.3): Can indicate continuation or acceleration of established trends
Full Moon (0.45-0.55): Frequently correlates with market turning points and potential reversals
Last Quarter (0.7-0.8): May signal consolidation or preparation for new market moves
Cycle alignment: When market cycles align with lunar cycles, the effect may be amplified
Phase transition timing: Changes between lunar phases can coincide with shifts in market sentiment
Volume correlation: Some markets show increased volatility around full and new moons
⚠️ LIMITATIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS
Correlation vs. causation: While some studies suggest lunar correlations with market behavior, they don't imply direct causation
Market-specific effects: Lunar correlations may appear stronger in some markets (commodities, precious metals) than others
Timeframe relevance: More effective for swing and position trading than for intraday analysis
Complementary tool: Should be used alongside conventional technical indicators rather than in isolation
Confirmation requirement: Lunar signals are most reliable when confirmed by price action and other indicators
Statistical significance: Many observed lunar-market correlations may not be statistically significant when tested rigorously
Calendar adjustments: The indicator accounts for astronomical position but not calendar-based trading anomalies that might overlap
📚 REFERENCES
Dichev, I. D., & Janes, T. D. (2003). Lunar cycle effects in stock returns. Journal of Private Equity, 6(4), 8-29.
Yuan, K., Zheng, L., & Zhu, Q. (2006). Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns. Journal of Empirical Finance, 13(1), 1-23.
Kemp, J. (2020). Lunar cycles and trading: A systematic analysis. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 21(2), 42-55. (Note: fictional reference for illustrative purposes)
