Physics CandlesPhysics Candles embed volume and motion physics directly onto price candles or market internals according to the cyclic pattern of financial securities. The indicator works on both real-time “ticks” and historical data using statistical modeling to highlight when these values, like volume or momentum, is unusual or relatively high for some periodic window in time. Each candle is made out of one or more sub-candles that each contain their own information of motion, which converts to the color and transparency, or brightness, of that particular candle segment. The segments extend throughout the entire candle, both body and wicks, and Thick Wicks can be implemented to see the color coding better. This candle segmentation allows you to see if all the volume or energy is evenly distributed throughout the candle or highly contained in one small portion of it, and how intense these values are compared to similar time periods without going to lower time frames. Candle segmentation can also change a trader’s perspective on how valuable the information is. A “low” volume candle, for instance, could signify high value short-term stopping volume if the volume is all concentrated in one segment.
The Candles are flexible. The physics information embedded on the candles need not be from the same price security or market internal as the chart when using the Physics Source option, and multiple Candles can be overlayed together. You could embed stock price Candles with market volume, market price Candles with stock momentum, market structure with internal acceleration, stock price with stock force, etc. My particular use case is scalping the SPX futures market (ES), whose price action is also dictated by the volume action in the associated cash market, or SPY, as well as a host of other securities. Physics allows you to embed the ES volume on the SPY price action, or the SPY volume on the ES price action, or you can combine them both by overlaying two Candle streams and increasing the Number of Overlays option to two. That option decreases the transparency levels of your coloring scheme so that overlaying multiple Candles converges toward the same visual color intensity as if you had one. The Candle and Physics Sources allows for both Symbols and Spreads to visualize Candle physics from a single ticker or some mathematical transformation of tickers.
Due to certain TradingView programming restrictions, each Candle can only be made out of a maximum of 8 candle segments, or an “8-bit” resolution. Since limits are just an opportunity to go beyond, the user has the option to stack multiple Candle indicators together to further increase the candle resolution. If you don’t want to see the Candles for some particular period of the day, you can hide them, or use the hiding feature to have multiple Candles calibrated to show multiple parts of the trading day. Securities tend to have low volume after hours with sharp spikes at the open or close. Multiple Candles can be used for multiple parts of the trading day to accommodate these different cycles in volume.
The Candles do not need be associated with the nominal security listed on the TV chart. The Candle Source allows the user to look at AAPL Candles, for instance, while on a TSLA or SPY chart, each with their respective volume actions integrated into the candles, for instance, to allow the user to see multiple security price and volume correlation on a single chart.
The physics information currently embeddable on Candles are volume or time, velocity, momentum, acceleration, force, and kinetic energy. In order to apply equations of motion containing a mass variable to financial securities, some analogous value for mass must be assumed. Traders often regard volume or time as inextricable variables to a securities price that can indicate the direction and strength of a move. Since mass is the inextricable variable to calculating the momentum, force, or kinetic energy of motion, the user has the option to assume either time or volume is analogous to mass. Volume may be a better option for mass as it is not strictly dependent on the speed of a security, whereas time is.
Data transformations and outlier statistics are used to color code the intensity of the physics for each candle segment relative to past periodic behavior. A million shares during pre-market or a million shares during noontime may be more intense signals than a typical million shares traded at the open, and should have more intense color signals. To account for a specific cyclic behavior in the market, the user can specify the Window and Cycle Time Frames. The Window Time Frame splits up a Cycle into windows, samples and aggregates the statistics for each window, then compares the current physics values against past values in the same window. Intraday traders may benefit from using a Daily Cycle with a 30-minute Window Time Frame and 1-minute Sample Time Frame. These settings sample and compare the physics of 1-minute candles within the current 30-minute window to the same 30-minute window statistics for all past trading days, up until the data limit imposed by TradingView, or until the Data Collection Start Date specified in the settings. Longer-term traders may benefit from using a Monthly Cycle with a Weekly Time Frame, or a Yearly Cycle with a Quarterly Time Frame.
Multiple statistics and data transformation methods are available to convey relative intensity in different ways for different trading signals. Physics Candles allows for both Normal and Log-Normal assumptions in the physics distribution. The data can then be transformed by Linear, Logarithmic, Z-Score, or Power-Law scoring, where scoring simply assigns an intensity to the relative physics value of each candle segment based on some mathematical transformation. Z-scoring often renders adequate detection by scoring the segment value, such as volume or momentum, according to the mean and standard deviation of the data set in each window of the cycle. Logarithmic or power-law transformation with a gamma below 1 decreases the disparity between intensities so more less-important signals will show up, whereas the power-law transformation with gamma values above 1 increases the disparity between intensities, so less more-important signals will show up. These scores are then converted to color and transparency between the Min Score and the Max Score Cutoffs. The Auto-Normalization feature can automatically pick these cutoffs specific to each window based on the mean and standard deviation of the data set, or the user can manually set them. Physics was developed with novices in mind so that most users could calibrate their own settings by plotting the candle segment distributions directly on the chart and fiddling with the settings to see how different cutoffs capture different portions of the distribution and affect the relative color intensities differently. Security distributions are often skewed with fat-tails, known as kurtosis, where high-volume segments for example, have a higher-probabilities than expected for a normal distribution. These distribution are really log-normal, so that taking the logarithm leads to a standard bell-shaped distribution. Taking the Z-score of the Log-Normal distribution could make the most statistical sense, but color sensitivity is a discretionary preference.
Background Philosophy
This indicator was developed to study and trade the physics of motion in financial securities from a visually intuitive perspective. Newton’s laws of motion are loosely applied to financial motion:
“A body remains at rest, or in motion at a constant speed in a straight line, unless acted upon by a force”.
Financial securities remain at rest, or in motion at constant speed up or down, unless acted upon by the force of traders exchanging securities.
“When a body is acted upon by a force, the time rate of change of its momentum equals the force”.
Momentum is the product of mass and velocity, and force is the product of mass and acceleration. Traders render force on the security through the mass of their trading activity and the acceleration of price movement.
“If two bodies exert forces on each other, these forces have the same magnitude but opposite directions.”
Force arises from the interaction of traders, buyers and sellers. One body of motion, traders’ capitalization, exerts an equal and opposite force on another body of motion, the financial security. A securities movement arises at the expense of a buyer or seller’s capitalization.
Volume
The premise of this indicator assumes that volume, v, is an analogous means of measuring physical mass, m. This premise allows the application of the equations of motion to the movement of financial securities. We know from E=mc^2 that mass has energy. Energy can be used to create motion as kinetic energy. Taking a simple hypothetical example, the interaction of one short seller looking to cover lower and one buyer looking to sell higher exchange shares in a security at an agreed upon price to create volume or mass, and therefore, potential energy. Eventually the short seller will actively cover and buy the security from the previous buyer, moving the security higher, or the buyer will actively sell to the short seller, moving the security lower. The potential energy inherent in the initial consolidation or trading activity between buy and seller is now converted to kinetic energy on the subsequent trading activity that moves the securities price. The more potential energy that is created in the consolidation, the more kinetic energy there is to move price. This is why point and figure traders are said to give price targets based on the level of volatility or size of a consolidation range, or why Gann traders square price and time, as time is roughly proportional to mass and trading activity. The build-up of potential energy between short sellers and buyers in GME or TSLA led to their explosive moves beyond their standard fundamental valuations.
Position
Position, p, is simply the price or value of a financial security or market internal.
Time
Time, t, is another means of measuring mass to discover price behavior beyond the time snapshots that simple candle charts provide. We know from E=mc^2 that time is related to rest mass and energy given the speed of light, c, where time ≈ distance * sqrt(mass/E). This relation can also be derived from F=ma. The more mass there is, the longer it takes to compute the physics of a system. The more energy there is, the shorter it takes to compute the physics of a system. Similarly, more time is required to build a “resting” low-volatility trading consolidation with more mass. More energy added to that trading consolidation by competing buyers and sellers decreases the time it takes to build that same mass. Time is also related to price through velocity.
Velocity = (p(t1) – p(t0)) / p(t0)
Velocity, v, is the relative percent change of a securities price, p, over a period of time, t0 to t1. The period of time is between subsequent candles, and since time is constant between candles within the same timeframe, it is not used to calculate velocity or acceleration. Price moves faster with higher velocity, and slower with slower velocity, over the same fixed period of time. The product of velocity and mass gives momentum.
Momentum = mv
This indicator uses physics definition of momentum, not finance’s. In finance, momentum is defined as the amount of change in a securities price, either relative or absolute. This is definition is unfortunate, pun intended, since a one dollar move in a security from a thousand shares traded between a few traders has the exact same “momentum” as a one dollar move from millions of shares traded between hundreds of traders with everything else equal. If momentum is related to the energy of the move, momentum should consider both the level of activity in a price move, and the amount of that price move. If we equate mass to volume to account for the level of trading activity and use physics definition of momentum as the product of mass and velocity, this revised definition now gives a thousand-times more momentum to a one-dollar price move that has a thousand-times more volume behind it. If you want to use finance’s volume-less definition of momentum, use velocity in this indicator.
Acceleration = v(t1) – v(t0)
Acceleration, a, is the difference between velocities over some period of time, t0 to t1. Positive acceleration is necessary to increase a securities speed in the positive direction, while negative acceleration is necessary to decrease it. Acceleration is related to force by mass.
Force = ma
Force is required to change the speed of a securities valuation. Price movements with considerable force have considerably more impact on future direction. A change in direction requires force.
Kinetic Energy = 0.5mv^2
Kinetic energy is the energy that a financial security gains from the change in its velocity by force. The built-up of potential energy in trading consolidations can be converted to kinetic energy on a breakout from the consolidation.
Cycle Theory and Relativity
Just as the physics of motion is relative to a point of reference, so too should the physics of financial securities be relative to a point of reference. An object moving at a 100 mph towards another object moving in the same direction at 100 mph will not appear to be moving relative to each other, nor will they collide, but from an outsider observer, the objects are going 100 mph and will collide with significant impact if they run into a stationary object relative to the observer. Similarly, trading with a hundred thousand shares at the open when the average volume is a couple million may have a much smaller impact on the price compared to trading a hundred thousand shares pre-market when the average volume is ten thousand shares. The point of reference used in this indicator is the average statistics collected for a given Window Time Frame for every Cycle Time Frame. The physics values are normalized relative to these statistics.
Examples
The main chart of this publication shows the Force Candles for the SPY. An intense force candle is observed pre-market that implicates the directional overtone of the day. The assumption that direction should follow force arises from physical observation. If a large object is accelerating intensely in a particular direction, it may be fair to assume that the object continues its direction for the time being unless acted upon by another force.
The second example shows a similar Force Candle for the SPY that counters the assumption made in the first example and emphasizes the importance of both motion and context. While it’s fair to assume that a heavy highly accelerating object should continue its course, if that object runs into an obstacle, say a brick wall, it’s course may deviate. This example shows SPY running into the 50% retracement wall from the low of Mar 2020, a significant support level noted in literature. The example also conveys Gann’s idea of “lost motion”, where the SPY penetrated the 50% price but did not break through it. A brick wall is not one atom thick and price support is not one tick thick. An object can penetrate only one layer of a wall and not go through it.
The third example shows how Volume Candles can be used to identify scalping opportunities on the SPY and conveys why price behavior is as important as motion and context. It doesn’t take a brick wall to impede direction if you know that the person driving the car tends to forget to feed the cats before they leave. In the chart below, the SPY breaks down to a confluence of the 5-day SMA, 20-day SMA, and an important daily trendline (not shown) after the bullish bounce from the 50% retracement days earlier. High volume candles on the SMA signify stopping volume that reverse price direction. The character of the day changes. Bulls become more aggressive than bears with higher volume on upswings and resistance, whiles bears take on a defensive position with lower volume on downswings and support. High volume stopping candles are seen after rallies, and can tell you when to take profit, get out of a position, or go short. The character change can indicate that its relatively safe to re-enter bullish positions on many major supports, especially given the overarching bullish theme from the large reaction off the 50% retracement level.
The last example emphasizes the importance of relativity. The Volume Candles in the chart below are brightest pre-market even though the open has much higher volume since the pre-market activity is much higher compared to past pre-markets than the open is compared to past opens. Pre-market behavior is a good indicator for the character of the day. These bullish Volume Candles are some of the brightest seen since the bounce off the 50% retracement and indicates that bulls are making a relatively greater attempt to bring the SPY higher at the start of the day.
Infrequently Asked Questions
Where do I start?
The default settings are what I use to scalp the SPY throughout most of the extended trading day, on a one-minute chart using SPY volume. I also overlay another Candle set containing ES future volume on the SPY price structure by setting the Physics Source to ES1! and the Number of Overlays setting to 2 for each Candle stream in order to account for pre- and post-market trading activity better. Since the closing volume is exponential-like up until the end of the regular trading day, adding additional Candle streams with a tighter Window Time Frame (e.g., 2-5 minute) in the last 15 minutes of trading can be beneficial. The Hide feature can allow you to set certain intraday timeframes to hide one Candle set in order to show another Candle set during that time.
How crazy can you get with this indicator?
I hope you can answer this question better. One interesting use case is embedding the velocity of market volume onto an internal market structure. The PCTABOVEVWAP.US is a market statistic that indicates the percent of securities above their VWAP among US stocks and is helpful for determining short term trends in the US market. When securities are rising above their VWAP, the average long is up on the day and a rising PCTABOVEVWAP.US can be viewed as more bullish. When securities are falling below their VWAP, the average short is up on the day and a falling PCTABOVEVWAP.US can be viewed as more bearish. (UPVOL.US - DNVOL.US) / TVOL.US is a “spread” symbol, in TV parlance, that indicates the decimal percent difference between advancing volume and declining volume in the US market, showing the relative flow of volume between stocks that are up on the day, and stocks that are down on the day. Setting PCTABOVEVWAP.US in the Candle Source, (UPVOL.US - DNVOL.US) / TVOL.US in the Physics Source, and selecting the Physics to Velocity will embed the relative velocity of the spread symbol onto the PCTABOVEVWAP.US candles. This can be helpful in seeing short term trends in the US market that have an increasing amount of volume behind them compared to other trends. The chart below shows Volume Candles (top) and these Spread Candles (bottom). The first top at 9:30 and second top at 10:30, the high of the day, break down when the spread candles light up, showing a high velocity volume transfer from up stocks to down stocks.
How do I plot the indicator distribution and why should I even care?
The distribution is visually helpful in seeing how different normalization settings effect the distribution of candle segments. It is also helpful in seeing what physics intensities you want to ignore or show by segmenting part of the distribution within the Min and Max Cutoff values. The intensity of color is proportional to the physics value between the Min and Max Cutoff values, which correspond to the Min and Max Colors in your color scheme. Any physics value outside these Min and Max Cutoffs will be the same as the Min and Max Colors.
Select the Print Windows feature to show the window numbers according to the Cycle Time Frame and Window Time Frame settings. The window numbers are labeled at the start of each window and are candle width in size, so you may need to zoom into to see them. Selecting the Plot Window feature and input the window number of interest to shows the distribution of physics values for that particular window along with some statistics.
A log-normal volume distribution of segmented z-scores is shown below for 30-minute opening of the SPY. The Min and Max Cutoff at the top of the graph contain the part of the distribution whose intensities will be linearly color-coded between the Min and Max Colors of the color scheme. The part of the distribution below the Min Cutoff will be treated as lowest quality signals and set to the Min Color, while the few segments above the Max Cutoff will be treated as the highest quality signals and set to the Max Color.
What do I do if I don’t see anything?
Troubleshooting issues with this indicator can involve checking for error messages shown near the indicator name on the chart or using the Data Validation section to evaluate the statistics and normalization cutoffs. For example, if the Plot Window number is set to a window number that doesn’t exist, an error message will tell you and you won’t see any candles. You can use the Print Windows option to show windows that do exist for you current settings. The auto-normalization cutoff values may be inappropriate for your particular use case and literally cut the candles out of the chart. Try changing the chart time frame to see if they are appropriate for your cycle, sample and window time frames. If you get a “Timeframe passed to the request.security_lower_tf() function must be lower than the timeframe of the main chart” error, this means that the chart timeframe should be increased above the sample time frame. If you get a “Symbol resolve error”, ensure that you have correct symbol or spread in the Candle or Physics Source.
How do I see a relative physics values without cycles?
Set the Window Time Frame to be equal to the Cycle Time Frame. This will aggregate all the statistics into one bucket and show the physics values, such as volume, relative to all the past volumes that TV will allow.
How do I see candles without segmentation?
Segmentation can be very helpful in one context or annoying in another. Segmentation can be removed by setting the candle resolution value to 1.
Notes
I have yet to find a trading platform that consistently provides accurate real-time volume and pricing information, lacking adequate end-user data validation or quality control. I can provide plenty of examples of real-time volume counts or prices provided by TradingView and other platforms that were significantly off from what they should have been when comparing against the exchanges own data, and later retroactively corrected or not corrected at all. Since no indicator can work accurately with inaccurate data, please use at your own discretion.
The first version is a beta version. Debugging and validating code in Pine script is difficult without proper unit testing. Please report any bugs with enough information to reproduce them and indicate why they are important. I also encourage you to export the data from TradingView and verify the calculations for your particular use case.
The indicator works on real-time updates that occur at a higher frequency than the candle time frame, which TV incorrectly refers to as ticks. They use this terminology inaccurately as updates are really aggregated tick data that can take place at different prices and may not accurately reflect the real tick price action. Consequently, this inaccuracy also impacts the real-time segmentation accuracy to some degree. TV does not provide a means of retaining “tick” information, so the higher granularity of information seen real-time will be lost on a disconnect.
TV does not provide time and sales information. The volume and price information collected using the Sample Time Frame is intraday, which provides only part of the picture. Intraday volume is generally 50 to 80% of the end of day volume. Consequently, the daily+ OHLC prices are intraday, and may differ significantly from exchanged settled OHLC prices.
The Cycle and Window Time Frames refer to calendar days and time, not trading days or time. For example, the first window week of a monthly cycle is the first seven days of the month, not the first Monday through Friday of trading for the month.
Chart Time Frames that are higher than the Window Time Frames average the normalized physics for price action that occurred within a given Candle segment. It does not average price action that did not occur.
One of the main performance bottleneck in TradingView’s Pine Script is client-side drawing and plotting. The performance of this indicator can be increased by lowering the resolution (the number of sub-candles this indicator plots), getting a faster computer, or increasing the performance of your computer like plugging your laptop in and eliminating unnecessary processes.
The statistical integrity of this indicator relies on the number of samples collected per sample window in a given cycle. Higher sample counts can be obtained by increasing the chart time frame or upgrading the TradingView plan for a higher bar count. While increasing the chart time frame doesn’t increase the visual number of bars plotted on the chart, it does increase the number of bars that can be pulled at a lower time frame, up to 100,000.
Due to a limitation in Pine Scripts request_lower_tf() function, using a spread symbol will only work for regular trading hours, not extended trading hours.
Ideally, velocity or momentum should be calculated between candle closes. To eliminate the need to deal with price gaps that would lead to an incorrect statistical distributions, momentum is calculated between candle open and closes as a percent change of the price or value, which should not be an issue for most liquid securities.
Tìm kiếm tập lệnh với "TAKE"
Candlestick Pattern Criteria and Analysis Indicator█ OVERVIEW
Define, then locate the presence of a candle that fits a specific criteria. Run a basic calculation on what happens after such a candle occurs.
Here, I’m not giving you an edge, but I’m giving you a clear way to find one.
IMPORTANT NOTE: PLEASE READ:
THE INDICATOR WILL ALWAYS INITIALLY LOAD WITH A RUNTIME ERROR. WHEN INITIALLY LOADED THERE NO CRITERIA SELECTED.
If you do not select a criteria or run a search for a criteria that doesn’t exist, you will get a runtime error. If you want to force the chart to load anyway, enable the debug panel at the bottom of the settings menu.
Who this is for:
- People who want to engage in TradingView for tedious and challenging data analysis related to candlestick measurement and occurrence rate and signal bar relationships with subsequent bars. People who don’t know but want to figure out what a strong bullish bar or a strong bearish bar is.
Who this is not for:
- People who want to be told by an indicator what is good or bad or buy or sell. Also, not for people that don’t have any clear idea on what they think is a strong bullish bar or a strong bearish bar and aren’t willing to put in the work.
Recommendation: Use on the candle resolution that accurately reflects your typical holding period. If you typically hold a trade for 3 weeks, use 3W candles. If you hold a trade for 3 minutes, use 3m candles.
Tldr; Read the tool tips and everything above this line. Let me know any issues that arise or questions you have.
█ CONCEPTS
Many trading styles indicate that a certain candle construct implies a bearish or bullish future for price. That said, it is also common to add to that idea that the context matters. Of course, this is how you end up with all manner of candlestick patterns accounting for thousands of pages of literature. No matter the context though, we can distill a discretionary trader's decision to take a trade based on one very basic premise: “A trader decides to take a trade on the basis of the rightmost candle's construction and what he/she believes that candle construct implies about the future price.” This indicator vets that trader’s theory in the most basic way possible. It finds the instances of any candle construction and takes a look at what happens on the next bar. This current bar is our “Signal Bar.”
█ GUIDE
I said that we vet the theory in the most basic way possible. But, in truth, this indicator is very complex as a result of there being thousands of ways to define a ‘strong’ candle. And you get to define things on a very granular level with this indicator.
Features:
1. Candle Highlighting
When the user’s criteria is met, the candle is highlighted on the chart.
The following candle is highlighted based on whether it breaks out, breaks down, or is an inside bar.
2. User-Defined Criteria
Criteria that you define include:
Candle Type: Bull bars, Bear bars, or both
Candle Attributes
Average Size based on Standard Deviation or Average of all potential bars in price history
Search within a specific price range
Search within a specific time range
Clarify time range using defined sessions and with or without weekends
3. Strike Lines on Candle
Often you want to know how price reacts when it gets back to a certain candle. Also it might be true that candle types cluster in a price region. This can be identified visually by adding lines that extend right on candles that fit the criteria.
4. User-Defined Context
Labeled “Alternative Criteria,” this facet of the script allows the user to take the context provided from another indicator and import it into the indicator to use as a overriding criteria. To account for the fact that the external indicator must be imported as a float value, true (criteria of external indicator is met) must be imported as 1 and false (criteria of external indicator is not met) as 0. Basically a binary Boolean. This can be used to create context, such as in the case of a traditional fractal, or can be used to pair with other signals.
If you know how to code in Pinescript, you can save a copy and simply add your own code to the section indicated in the code and set your bull and bear variables accordingly and the code should compile just fine with no further editing needed.
Included with the script to maximize out-of-the-box functionality, there is preloaded as alternative criteria a code snippet. The criteria is met on the bull side when the current candle close breaks out above the prior candle high. The bear criteria is met when the close breaks below the prior candle. When Alternate Criteria is run by itself, this is the only criteria set and bars are highlighted when it is true. You can qualify these candles by adding additional attributes that you think would fit well.
Using Alternative Criteria, you are essentially setting a filter for the rest of the criteria.
5. Extensive Read Out in the Data Window (right side bar pop out window).
As you can see in the thumbnail, there is pasted a copy of the Data Window Dialogue. I am doubtful I can get the thumbnail to load up perfectly aligned. Its hard to get all these data points in here. It may be better suited for a table at this point. Let me know what you think.
The primary, but not exclusive, purpose of what is in the Data Window is to talk about how often your criteria happens and what happens on the next bar. There are a lot of pieces to this.
Red = Values pertaining to the size of the current bar only
Blue = Values pertaining or related to the total number of signals
Green = Values pertaining to the signal bars themselves, including their measurements
Purple = Values pertaining to bullish bars that happen after the signal bar
Fuchsia = Values pertaining to bearish bars that happen after the signal bar
Lime = Last four rows which are your percentage occurrence vs total signals percentages
The best way I can explain how to understand parts you don’t understand otherwise in the data window is search the title of the row in the code using ‘ctrl+f’ and look at it and see if it makes more sense.
█ [b}Available Candle Attributes
Candle attributes can be used in any combination. They include:
[*}Bodies
[*}High/Low Range
[*}Upper Wick
[*}Lower Wick
[*}Average Size
[*}Alternative Criteria
Criteria will evaluate each attribute independently. If none is set for a particular attribute it is bypassed.
Criteria Quantity can be in Ticks, Points, or Percentage. For percentage keep in mind if using anything involving the candle range will not work well with percentage.
Criteria Operators are “Greater Than,” “Less Than,” and “Threshold.” Threshold means within a range of two numbers.
█ Problems with this methodology and opportunities for future development:
#1 This kind of work is hard.
If you know what you’re doing you might be able to find success changing out the inputs for loops and logging results in arrays or matrices, but to manually go through and test various criteria is a lot of work. However, it is rewarding. At the time of publication in early Oct 2022, you will quickly find that you get MUCH more follow through on bear bars than bull bars. That should be obvious because we’re in the middle of a bear market, but you can still work with the parameters and contextual inputs to determine what maximizes your probability. I’ve found configurations that yield 70% probability across the full series of bars. That’s an edge. That means that 70% of the time, when this criteria is met, the next bar puts you in profit.
#2 The script is VERY heavy.
Takes an eternity to load. But, give it a break, it’s doing a heck of a lot! There is 10 unique arrays in here and a loop that is a bit heavy but gives us the debug window.
#3 If you don’t have a clear idea its hard to know where to start.
There are a lot of levers to pull on in this script. Knowing which ones are useful and meaningful is very challenging. Combine that with long load times… its not great.
#4 Your brain is the only thing that can optimize your results because the criteria come from your mind.
Machine learning would be much more useful here, but for now, you are the machine. Learn.
#5 You can’t save your settings.
So, when you find a good combo, you’ll have to write it down elsewhere for future reference. It would be nice if we could save templates on custom indicators like we can on some of the built in drawing tools, but I’ve had no success in that. So, I recommend screenshotting your settings and saving them in Notion.so or some other solid record keeping database. Then you can go back and retrieve those settings.
#6 no way to export these results into conditions that can be copy/pasted into another script.
Copy/Paste of labels or tables would be the best feature ever at this point. Because you could take the criteria and put it in a label, copy it and drop it into another strategy script or something. But… men can dream.
█ Opportunities to PineCoders Learn:
1. In this script I’m importing libraries, showing some of my libraries functionality. Hopefully that gives you some ideas on how to use them too.
The price displacement library (which I love!)
Creative and conventional ways of using debug()
how to display arrays and matrices on charts
I didn’t call in the library that holds the backtesting function. But, also demonstrating, you can always pull the library up and just copy/paste the function out of there and into your script. That’s fine to do a lot of the time.
2. I am using REALLY complicated logic in this script (at least for me). I included extensive descriptions of this ? : logic in the text of the script. I also did my best to bracket () my logic groups to demonstrate how they fit together, both for you and my future self.
3. The breakout, built-in, “alternative criteria” is actually a small bit of genius built in there if you want to take the time to understand that block of code and think about some of the larger implications of the method deployed.
As always, a big thank you to TradingView and the Pinescript community, the Pinescript pros who have mentored me, and all of you who I am privileged to help in their Pinescripting journey.
"Those who stay will become champions" - Bo Schembechler
Faytterro EstimatorWhat is Faytterro Estimator?
This indicator is an advanced moving average.
What it does?
This indicator is both a moving average and at the same time, it predicts the future values that the price may take based on the values it has taken before.
How it does it?
takes the weighted average of data of the selected length (reducing the weight from the middle to the ends). then draws a parabola through the last three values, creating a predicted line.
How to use it?
it is simple to use. You can use it both as a regression to review past prices, and to predict the future value of a price. uptrends are in green and downtrends are in red. color change indicates a possible trend change.
LNL Pullback ArrowsBuying the dip has never been easier! LNL Pullback Arrows are here to pinpoint the best possible entries for the trend following setups. With the Pullback Arrows, trader can pick his own approach and risk level thanks to four different types of arrows. The goal of these arrows is to force the traders to scale in & out of trades which is in my opinion crucial when it comes to trend following strategies. These arrows were designed primarily for the daily & weekly time frame (swing trading).
Four Types of Pullback Arrows:
1. Aggro Arrows - Ideal for aggresive approach during parabolic trends. Sometimes trends are so strong that the price barely revisits the daily 8 EMA. This is where the aggro arrows can perfectly pinpoint the aggresive high risk entries. Ideal for halfsize or 1/4 size of the full position. Aiming for quick 1-2 day moves targeting the recent high/low. These arrows could be also named as scalping arrows for the swing traders. A quick In & Out.
2. HalfSize Arrows - Medium risk approach. First arrows to scale in. HalfSize arrows are the first sign that the pullback might be ending, yet there is still some space left for an even deeper pullback. That is the reason why they are called half-size. Ideally taken with half-sized position. When trading the HalfSize Arrows, It is better to have some "spare ammo in the gun" ready to use.
3. FullSize Arrows - Regular risk approach. These arrows represent a zone where the core of the posititon should be taken. The point of validity for the trend is not that far away, meaning the risk can be kept tight. Ideal for scailing the other halfs or quarters of the full position. Also great for more conservative traders or environments with higher volatility.
4. Rare Arrows - Offer the best risk to reward entries during the trend. Rare Arrows should be the "last kick" of the retracement, therefore stops can be positioned really tight. They either trigger the stop immidiately or they provide another juicy leg up or down in the direction of the trend. However, they really do appear rarely.
Simple EMA Cloud:
A simple cloud based on 21 and 55 exponential moving averages. This default length creates a pullback zone that is wide enough for the conservative traders but also give the opportunities to more aggresive traders. Alternatives such as 8 & 21, or 21 & 34 are forming the zone that is too aggresive and usually too thin. Of course, cloud can be fully adjusted or turned off completely. The only role of the cloud is to gauge the trend.
Tips & Tricks:
1.Importance of the Scailing
- As already stated, scailing is crucial to this since there is no way of knowing the exact level at which the price magically bounce every time. It is hard to tell where and which EMA will be respected. How can we know it will be 21 EMA every time? or 34 EMA or 10 EMA or 100 SMA or 50 DMA ... Single MA does not make a trend. This is the reason why scailing is so important. Scailing can make a difference.
2. Nothing is Perfect
- Same as any other study, nothing works 100% perfectly. Sometimes the setup will go right against you and sometimes the price will fade away sideways and breaks off the structure of the trend. This is not a magic certainty tool. This is just another probability tool.
3. Point of Validity & Other Studies
- Even though the pullback arrows can be a stand-alone strategy. It is important to use other indicators that visualize the actual trend. Whether its EMA Cloud or EMAs or DMI Bars or Keltner Channels, there should be something that validates the trend, something that tells the trend is over. (Pullback Arrows are not showing the actual stops!).
Hope it helps.
Real Woodies CCIAs always, this is not financial advice and use at your own risk. Trading is risky and can cost you significant sums of money if you are not careful. Make sure you always have a proper entry and exit plan that includes defining your risk before you enter a trade.
Ken Wood is a semi-famous trader that grew in popularity in the 1990s and early 2000s due to the establishment of one of the earliest trading forums online. This forum grew into "Woodie's CCI Club" due to Wood's love of his modified Commodity Channel Index (CCI) that he used extensively. From what I can tell, the website is still active and still follows the same core principles it did in the early days, the CCI is used for entries, range bars are used to help trader's cut down on the noise, and the optional addition of Woodie's Pivot Points can be used as further confirmation of support and resistance. This is my take on his famous "Woodie's CCI" that has become standard on many charting packages through the years, including a TradingView sponsored version as one of the many stock indicators provided by TradingView. Woodie has updated his CCI through the years to include several very cool additions outside of the standard CCI. I will have to say, I am a bit biased, but I think this is hands down one of the best indicators I have ever used, and I am far too young to have been part of the original CCI Club. Being a daytrader primarily, this fits right in my timeframe wheel house. Woodie designed this indicator to work on a day-trading time scale and he frequently uses this to trade futures and commodity contracts on the 30 minute, often even down to the one minute timeframe. This makes it unique in that it is probably one of the only daytrading-designed indicators out there that I am aware of that was not a popular indicator, like the MACD or RSI, that was just adopted by daytraders.
The CCI was originally created by Donald Lambert in 1980. Over time, it has become an extremely popular house-hold indicator, like the Stochastics, RSI, or MACD. However, like the RSI and Stochastics, there are extensive debates on how the CCI is actually meant to be used. Some trade it like a reversal indicator, where values greater than 100 or less than -100 are considered overbought or oversold, respectively. Others trade it like a typical zero-line cross indicator, where once the value goes above or below the zero-line, a trade should be considered in that direction. Lastly, some treat it as strictly a momentum indicator, where values greater than 100 or less than -100 are seen as strong momentum moves and when these values are reached, a new strong trend is establishing in the direction of the move. The CCI itself is nothing fancy, it just visualizes the distance of the closing price away from a user-defined SMA value and plots it as a line. However, Woodie's CCI takes this simple concept and adds to it with an indicator with 5 pieces to it designed to help the trader enter into the highest probability setups. Bear with me, it initially looks super complicated, but I promise it is pretty straight-forward and a fun indicator to use.
1) The CCI Histogram. This is your standard CCI value that you would find on the normal CCI. Woodie's CCI uses a value of 14 for most trades and a value of 20 when the timeframe is equal to or greater than 30minutes. I personally use this as a 20-period CCI on all time frames, simply for the fact that the 20 SMA is a very popular moving average and I want to know what the crowd is doing. This is your coloured histogram with 4 colours. A gray colouring is for any bars above or below the zero line for 1-4 bars. A yellow bar is a "trend bar", where the long period CCI has been above/below the zero line for 5 consecutive bars, indicating that a trend in the current direction has been established. Blue bars above and red bars below are simply 6+n number of bars above or below the zero line confirming trend. These are used for the Zero-Line Reject Trade (explained below). The CCI Histogram has a matching long-period CCI line that is painted the same colour as the histogram, it is the same thing but is used just to outline the Histogram a bit better.
2) The CCI Turbo line. This is a sped-up 6 period CCI. This is to be used for the Zero-Line Reject trades, trendline breaks, and to identify shorter term overbought/oversold conditions against the main trend. This is coloured as the white line.
3) The Least Squares Moving Average Baseline (LSMA) Zero Line. You will notice that the Zero Line of the indicator is either green or red. This is based on when price is above or below the 25-period LSMA on the chart. The LSMA is a 25 period linear regression moving average and is one of the best moving averages out there because it is more immune to noise than a typical MA. Statistically, an LSMA is designed to find the line of best fit across the lookback periods and identify whether price is advancing, declining, or flat, without the whipsaw that other MAs can be privy to. The zero line of the indicator will turn green when the close candle is over the LSMA or red when it is below the LSMA. This is meant to be a confirmation tool only and the CCI Histogram and Turbo Histogram can cross this zero line without any corresponding change in the colour of the zero line on that immediate candle.
4) The +100 and -100 lines are used in two ways. First, they can be used by the CCI Histogram and CCI Turbo as a sort of minor price resistance and if the CCI values cannot get through these, it is considered weakness in that trade direction until they do so. You will notice that both of these lines are multi-coloured. They have been plotted with the ChopZone Indicator, another TradingView built-in indicator. The ChopZone is a trend identification tool that uses the slope and the direction of a 34-period EMA to identify when price is trending or range bound. While there are ~10 different colours, the main two a trader needs to pay attention to are the turquoise/cyan blue, which indicates price is in an uptrend, and dark red, which indicates price is in a downtrend based on the slope and direction of the 34 EMA. All other colours indicate "chop". These colours are used solely for the Zero-Line Reject and pattern trades discussed below. They are plotted both above and below so you can easily see the colouring no matter what side of the zero line the CCI is on.
5) The +200 and -200 lines are also used in two ways. First, they are considered overbought/oversold levels where if price exceeds these lines then it has moved an extreme amount away from the average and is likely to experience a pullback shortly. This is more useful for the CCI Histogram than the Turbo CCI, in all honesty. You will also notice that these are coloured either red, green, or yellow. This is the Sidewinder indicator portion. The documentation on this is extremely sparse, only pointing to a "relationship between the LSMA and the 34 EMA" (see here: tlc.thinkorswim.com). Since I am not a member of Woodie's CCI Club and never intend to be I took some liberty here and decided that the most likely relationship here was the slope of both moving averages. Therefore, the Sidewinder will be green when both the LSMA and the 34 EMA are rising, red when both are falling, and yellow when they are not in agreement with one another (i.e. one rising/flat while the other is flat/falling). I am a big fan of Dr. Alexander Elder as those who follow me know, so consider this like Woodie's version of the Elder Impulse System. I will fully admit that this version of the Sidewinder is a guess and may not represent the real Sidewinder indicator, but it is next to impossible to find any information on this, so I apologize, but my version does do something useful anyways. This is also to be used only with the Zero-Line Reject trades. They are plotted both above and below so you can easily see the colouring no matter what side of the zero line the CCI is on.
How to Trade It According to Woodie's CCI Club:
Now that I have all of my components and history out of the way, this is what you all care about. I will only provide a brief overview of the trades in this system, but there are quite a few more detailed descriptions listed in the Woodie's CCI Club pamphlet. I have had little success trading the "patterns" but they do exist and do work on occasion. I just prefer to trade with the flow of the markets rather than getting overly scalpy. If you are interested in these patterns, see the pamphlet here (www.trading-attitude.com), hop into the forums and see for yourself, or check out a couple of the YouTube videos.
1) Zero line cross. As simple as any other momentum oscillator out there. When the long period CCI crosses above or below the zero line open a trade in that direction. Extra confirmation can be had when the CCI Turbo has already broken the +100/-100 line "resistance or support". Trend traders may wish to wait until the yellow "trend confirmation bar" has been printed.
2) Zero Line Reject. This is when the CCI Turbo heads back down to the zero line and then bounces back in the same direction of the prevailing trend. These are fantastic continuation trades if you missed the initial entry either on the zero line cross or on the trend bar establishment. ZLR trades are only viable when you have the ChopZone indicator showing a trend (turquoise/cyan for uptrend, dark red for downtrend), the LSMA line is green for an uptrend or red for a downtrend, and the SideWinder is either green confirming the uptrend or red confirming the downtrend.
3) Hook From Extreme. This is the exact same as the Zero Line Reject trade, however, the CCI Turbo now goes to the +100/-100 line (whichever is opposite the currently established trend) and then hooks back into the established trend direction. Ideally the HFE trade needs to have the Long CCI Histogram above/below the corresponding 100 level and the CCI Turbo both breaks the 100 level on the trend side and when it does break it has increased ~20 points from the previous value (i.e. CCI Histogram = +150 with LSMA, CZ, and SW all matching up and trend bars printed on CCI Histogram, CCI Turbo went to -120 and bounced to +80 on last 2 bars, current bar closes with CCI Turbo closing at +110).
4) Trend Line Break. Either the CCI Turbo or CCI Histogram, whichever you prefer (I find the Turbo a bit more accurate since its a faster value) creates a series of higher highs/lows you can draw a trend line linking them. When the line breaks the trendline that is your signal to take a counter trade position. For example, if the CCI Turbo is making consistently higher lows and then breaks the trendline through the zero line, you can then go short. This is a good continuation trade.
5) The Tony Trade. Consider this like a combination zero line reject, trend line break, and weak zero line cross all in one. The idea is that the SW, CZ, and LSMA values are all established in one direction. The CCI Histogram should be in an established trend and then cross the zero line but never break the 100 level on the new side as long as it has not printed more than 9 bars on the new side. If the CCI Histogram prints 9 or less bars on the new side and then breaks the trendline and crosses back to the original trend side, that is your signal to take a reversal trade. This is best used in the Elder Triple Screen method (discussed in final section) as a failed dip or rip.
6) The GB100 Trade. This is a similar trade as the Tony Trade, however, the CCI Histogram can break the 100 level on the new side but has to have made less than 6 bars on the new side. A trendline break is not necessary here either, it is more of a "pop and drop" or "momentum failure" trade trying in the new direction.
7) The Famir Trade. This is a failed CCI Long Histogram ZLR trade and is quite complicated. I have never traded this but it is in the pamphlet. Essentially you have a typical ZLR reject (i.e. all components saying it is likely a long/short continuation trade), but the ZLR only stays around the 50 level, goes back to the trend side, fails there as well immediately after 1 bar and then rebreaks to the new side. This is important to be considered with the LSMA value matching the side of the trade, so if the Famir says to go long, you need the LSMA indicator to also say to go long.
8) The Vegas Trade. This is essentially a trend-reversal trade that takes into account the LSMA and a cup and handle formation on the CCI Long Histogram after it has reached an extreme value (+200/-200). You will see the CCI Histogram hit the extreme value, head towards the zero line, and then sort of round out back in the direction of the extreme price. The low point where it reversed back in the direction of the extreme can be considered support or resistance on the CCI and once the CCI Long Histogram breaks this level again, with LSMA confirmation, you can take a counter trend trade with a stop under/over the highest/lowest point of the last 2 bars as you want to be out quickly if you are wrong without much damage but can get a huge win if you are right and add later to the position once a new trade has formed.
9) The Ghost Trade. This is nothing more than a(n) (inverse) head and shoulders pattern created on the CCI. Draw a trend line connecting the head and shoulders and trade a reversal trade once the CCI Long Histogram breaks the trend line. Same deal as the Vegas Trade, stop over/under the most recent 2 bar high/low and add later if it is a winner but cut quickly if it is a loser.
Like I said, this is a complicated system and could quite literally take years to master if you wanted to go into the patterns and master them. I prefer to trade it in a much simpler format, using the Elder Triple Screen System. First, since I am a day trader, I look to use the 20 period Woodie's on the hourly and look at the CZ, SW, and LSMA values to make sure they all match the direction of the CCI Long Histogram (a trend establishment is not necessary here). It shows you the hourly trend as your "tide". I then drill down to the 15 minute time frame and use the Turbo CCI break in the opposite direction of the trend as my "wave" and to indicate when there is a dip or rip against the main trend. Lastly, I drill down to a 3 minute time frame and enter when the CCI Long Histogram turns back to match the main trend ("ripple") as long as the CCI Turbo has broken the 100 level in the matched direction.
Enjoy, and please read the pamphlet if you have any questions about the patterns as they are not how I use these and will not be able to answer those questions.
MACD-X Overlay, More Than MACD by DGTMoving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD
The most popular indicator used in technical analysis , the moving average convergence divergence ( MACD ), created by Gerald Appel. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator , designed to reveal changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a financial instrument’s price
Historical evolution of MACD ,
- Gerald Appel created the MACD line,
- Thomas Aspray added the histogram feature to MACD
- Giorgos E. Siligardos created a leader of MACD
MACD employs two Moving Averages of varying lengths (which are lagging indicators) to identify trend direction and duration. Then, MACD takes the difference in values between those two Moving Averages (MACD Line) and an EMA of those Moving Averages (Signal Line) and plots that difference between the two lines as a histogram which oscillates above and below a center Zero Line. The histogram is used as a good indication of a security's momentum.
The MACD indicator is typically good for identifying three types of basic signals;
Signal Line Crossovers
A Signal Line Crossover is the most common signal produced by the MACD . On the occasions where the MACD Line crosses above or below the Signal Line, that can signify a potentially strong move. The standard interpretation of such an event is a recommendation to buy if the MACD line crosses up through the Signal Line (a "bullish" crossover), or to sell if it crosses down through the Signal Line (a "bearish" crossover). These events are taken as indications that the trend in the financial instrument is about to accelerate in the direction of the crossover.
Zero Line Crossovers
Zero Line Crossovers occur when the MACD Line crossed the Zero Line and either becomes positive (above 0) or negative (below 0). A change from positive to negative MACD is interpreted as "bearish", and from negative to positive as "bullish". Zero crossovers provide evidence of a change in the direction of a trend but less confirmation of its momentum than a signal line crossover
Divergence
Divergence is another signal created by the MACD . Simply, divergence occurs when the MACD and actual price are not in agreement. A "positive divergence" or "bullish divergence" occurs when the price makes a new low but the MACD does not confirm with a new low of its own. A "negative divergence" or "bearish divergence" occurs when the price makes a new high but the MACD does not confirm with a new high of its own. A divergence with respect to price may occur on the MACD line and/or the MACD Histogram
Moving Average Crossovers , another hidden signal that MACD Indicator identifies
Many traders will watch for a short-term moving average to cross above a longer-term moving average and use this to signal increasing upward momentum. This bullish crossover suggests that the price has recently been rising at a faster rate than it has in the past, so it is a common technical buy sign. Conversely, a short-term moving average crossing below a longer-term average is used to illustrate that the asset's price has been moving downward at a faster rate and that it may be a good time to sell.
Moving Average Crossovers in reality is Zero Line Crossovers, the value of the MACD indicator is equal to zero each time the two moving averages cross over each other. For easy interpretation by trades, Zero Line Crossovers are simply described as positive or negative MACD
False signals
Like any forecasting algorithm, the MACD can generate false signals. A false positive, for example, would be a bullish crossover followed by a sudden decline in a financial instrument. A false negative would be a situation where there is bearish crossover, yet the financial instrument accelerated suddenly upwards
What is “MACD-X” and Why it is “More Than MACD”
In its simples form, MACD-X implements variety of different calculation techniques applied to obtain MACD Line. Different calculation techniques lead to different values for MACD Line, as will further discuss below, and as a consequence the signal line and the histogram values will differentiate accordingly.
Main features of MACD-X ;
1- Plotting of the Oscillator presented on top of the price chart (main chart) and applicable on both log and linear scale. Maximum plotting length is limited to 250 bars
2- Introduces different proven techniques applied on MACD calculation, such as MACD-AS (Histogram), MACD-Leader and MACD-Source, besides the traditional MACD (MACD-TRADITIONAL)
• MACD-Traditional, by Gerald Appel
It is the MACD that we know, stated as traditional just to avoid confusion with other techniques used with this study
• MACD-Histogram, by Thomas Aspray
The MACD-Histogram measures the distance between MACD and its signal line (the 9-day EMA of MACD ). Aspray developed the MACD-Histogram to anticipate signal line crossovers in MACD . Because MACD uses moving averages and moving averages lag price, signal line crossovers can come late and affect the reward-to-risk ratio of a trade. Bullish or bearish divergences in the MACD-Histogram can alert chartists to an imminent signal line crossover in MACD
Aspray's contribution served as a way to anticipate (and therefore cut down on lag) possible MACD crossovers which are a fundamental part of the indicator.
• MACD-Leader, by Giorgos E. Siligardos, PhD
MACD Leader has the ability to lead MACD at critical situations. Almost all smoothing methods encounter in technical analysis are based on a relative-weighted sum of past prices, and the Leader is no exception. The concealed weights of MACD Leader are such that more relative weight is used in the more recent prices than the respective weights used by the components of MACD . In effect, the Leader expresses more changes in average price dynamics for the recent price movement than MACD , thus eventually leading MACD , especially when significant trend changes are about to take place.
• MACD-Source, a custom experimental interpretation of mine,
MACD Source, presents an application of MACD that evaluates Source/MA Ratio, relatively with less lag, as a basis for MACD Line, also can be expressed as source convergence/divergence to its moving average. Among the various techniques for removing the lag between price and moving average (MA) of the price, one in particular stands out: the addition to the moving average of a portion of the difference between the price and MA. MACD Source, is based on signal length mean of the difference between Source and average value of shot length and long length moving average of the source (Source/MA Ratio), where the source is actual value and hence no lag and relatively less lag with the average value of moving average of the source .
MACD Source provides relatively early crossovers comparing to MACD and better momentum direction indications, assuming the lengths are set to same values
3- Alerts presented for MACD and Signal Line Crosses both for Early Warning and Confirmed Crossovers
For more, You are kindly invited to have a look to other MACD or similar studies presented on separate pane
MACD-X, More Than MACD by DGT , P-MACD by DGT and Price Distance to its MA by DGT
Disclaimer : Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
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PVSRA Volume Price - Some people say "Price Action is King". I say, we cannot know how the MMs (Market Makers) will move price next, period. But price tends to consolidate above key SR when MMs are filling short orders for SM (Smart Money) and long orders for DM (Dumb Money), and price tends to consolidate below key SR when MMs are filling long orders for SM and short orders for DM. The MMs are also "SM", and they tend to do the other SMs "one better"! This means that after the MMs fill the SM/DM orders, they might move price a bit further in an attempt to stop out some of those SM executed orders and sucker in more DM; both giving liquidity for the MMs to add to their own SM side position. Yes, the MMs are bastards. But the point is that could leave price not "nicely" above or below a SR anymore, yet more consolidation can occur.
Volume - Increases in activity denote increase in interest. But, is it long or short interest? Where is price in the bigger picture when this is happening? Is it at relative highs, or lows in the overall price action? And if a high volume bar is for a candle which you can examine by going to lower TF charts, you might see where in the spread of that candle the most volume occurred, high or low! Using volume is about taking note of relative increases in volume and what price is doing at the same time. Are the better volumes favoring the lower or the higher prices, as the MMs waffle price up and down? And do the volumes get particularly notable when the MMs take price above or below key SR?
S&R - Read all about S&R at "Baby Pips.com". What I want you to realize here is that the whole, half and quarter numbered price levels (hereinafter referred to as "Levels") are the most important SR of all in this market! Not because price stops, pauses, proceeds or reverses there, but because it is above or below these levels that important consolidation (MMs filling SM orders) takes place. Once SM long orders are filled, they become interested in placing orders to close them at higher prices, and hence the MMs will be moving price higher, eventually. Once SM short orders are filled, they become interested in placing orders to close them at lower prices, and hence the MMs will be moving price lower, eventually.
PVSRA - If we can spot consolidations above/below key SR, examine the overall price action on various TF charts, and take note of where the notable increases in volume have most recently occurred (did volume favor relative highs or lows), then we can build a consensus about what kind of orders the MMs have most recently been filling; buying to open longs or close shorts, or selling to open shorts or close longs. And we can get a better idea if things will next become bullish or bearish. And once PA confirms our bullish or bearish PVSRA results, by recognizing the importance of Levels we can look beyond current PA in the direction it is going and look to historic PA S&R (consolidation around key Levels) to come up with candidates for where the price might be headed. And bull or bear swings typically run in terms of 100+, 150+, 200+ pips, .....etc. And now you know why.
Okay. Now, if this is your first introduction to PVSRA, and having just read the above, you are likely scratching your head and still confused. That is normal. I will tell you a secret about the market and why you have a right to be confused. The secret is this. The market cannot be defined by mathematics nor by immutable logic. This is why the most advanced mathematicians over a century have never even come close to cracking the market. It cannot be done. Something else, other than math and immutable logic is the fundamental operand in the market. Have you ever watched a child attempt a jigsaw puzzle for the first time? And watched as that child grew and attempted more of them, and more complex ones? What is at work in the market I will elaborate on later, but for now trust me in this. We need to apply ourselves to learning how to do PVSRA just as a child attacks learning how to do jigsaw puzzles. And we must continue doing PVSRA, because in time our mind will "learn" when we have just picked up an important piece of the puzzle, and that we know where it goes! Developing the skill of PVSRA is an art form. We must not allow ourselves to feel badly if we miss clues. PVSRA is an art form that takes time to perfect. Over time our skill will grow and our "read" of the unpredictable market will improve. We must take to ongoing learning and application of PVSRA.
Introduction to How the Market Really Works
Does anybody remember the "lil' Abner" cartoons in the Sunday papers? Let me draw for you a mental picture of how the market really works.....
Imagine Daddy Yokum ferociously racing a buckboard wagon up and down the steep inclines and declines in the rough, rocky mountain road that has sharp turns and a sheer cliff on one side. The wagon wheels are spewing rocks off the side of the cliff! Even Daddy Yokum's shotgun is going off due to the jolting of the buckboard! Daddy Yokum has a demented look on his face, but he is smiling! The horse has a wild look in it's eyes and is frothing at the mouth. There are two passengers being tossed around in the back of the buckboard, terror stricken! Now, let's pan back from this cartoon picture and place the labels needed. On the side of the wagon is the sign "Market Pricing". The demented, smiling Daddy Yokum, is the Market Maker. The passengers being tossed around are the buyers and sellers.
.....Got it? Market prices are not determined by the buyers and sellers. They are determined by the Robber Bank Market Makers (MMs).
MMs are Market Manipulators of Price, and Thieves!
The "market" is the sole creation of the Robber Banks that "make the market". While it serves the world of commerce, they run it to make profits. And they opened the market up to foster prolific currency trading by others for the sole purpose of making more profits. They move prices up and down to "create liquidity" to fill the orders of SM (Smart Money) and DM (Dumb Money), for the commissions they make by filling the orders. When they have some orders above the current price and some below the current price, who do you think determines the sequence of direction and distance the price is going to move so these orders can be filled? And always - since they know how they are going to move price next - they take positions themselves to make additional profits.
They do this by:
1. Manipulating price to sucker into the market DM that is taking the wrong side position.
2. Manipulating price to sucker into the market SM that is taking the right side position, but too soon, and later manipulating price to hit their stops.
They have total control of pricing, and by these actions they effectively "steal" from others the money to fill their own "right side" positions before moving the price to the next area they have decided on for filling orders, and for taking profit on their positions built beforehand. Don't get me wrong. I do not object to the market volatility these thieving Robber Banks create. We need it. But we also need to understand what these people are like, the cloth they are cut from. They are crooks, and we have to be extra careful about trading in the market they operate. On some special days you can see them in their true colors. We should witness it. Take note of it. Speak of it. And remember it!
Per Volume Price ImpactLiquidity, Information and Market Timing
* Market Liquidity
The term liquidity can refer to many things in finance. In this article, we will limit the scope of discussion to the market’s ability to transact without incurring a significant increase in volatility.
As we know, liquidity and volatility have an inversed relationship — the more ample the liquidity, the lower the volatility (attributed to transaction cost, price movement and, so on). With this understanding, we can say large movements in the market are driven by low liquidity. This does not seem to make sense because the markets are huge, how can it possibly be illiquid? Now, this has to do with how the market operates and how exchanges occur (This topic concerns the area of market microstructure).
* Order Book & the Trading Process
So how does a transaction actually occur in the market? Let’s assume we open a position with a market order. In this case, you will get the price on your quote board if there are enough units of assets people are willing to sell at that price. If there are not enough units, you will buy from the second-best price and so on until your order is filled. Now in the second case, as the order is being filled, the change in price is recorded. Therefore, if someone wishes to move the market, theoretically, they just need to buy up or sell up but it is problematic to do so.
Here is why:
while dry up the liquidity can make huge moves, it is inefficient to do so.
it takes a lot of money to do that
your position will be exposed, someone more resourceful than you may go against you and that is a huge risk
market manipulation charges
when you open a position, the entry price of the position is essentially a VWAP (volume-weighted average price). If you attempt to move the market and open a buy position at the same time, you will have a higher VWAP, eating into your own profit.
I think these reasons are sufficient in establishing why opening a position and drying up liquidity to profit is a dumb idea. But of course, the institutions are not stupid, the alternative is to enter your position first then move the market.
To measure liquidity one of the tools people use is the order book. It can offer an overview of the sentiment (by looking at the orders and changes in volume) and how people are positioned (if the broker offers such data). In my opinion, open interest is a much better tool than order as it records the transactions that have occurred, hence less prone to manipulations (google: “Navinder Singh Sarao”, the trader who used fake orders to manipulate algorithms to crash the market).
But to quantify the order book is so much work as well (there are ways, just difficult), what we can do is to make things simpler.
* Quantify Market Impact
We know price and volume reflect information, while the past technical information has no predictive power per semi-strong form of EMH, empirical studies have often tested this theory over a longer time horizon. In our case, precisely due to the mechanism of exchange and human behavior (The lack of incentive to move the market right away) we can, in the very short term (often intraday), foresee if the market is going to move or not. Back to the very definition of liquidity being the ability to transact without moving the market significantly, we can take this definition and quantify it with this formula:
Market Impact = (High — Low) / Volume
Why specifically “high — low”, because that’s the complete information in that moment and it is corresponding to the volume. A little crude but it is the simplest form.
A few things to take note of here:
We can only know the complete picture once the candle is complete. This is fine in most markets because it takes time to gather money and orders.
We often see high liquidity during certain time of the day, for example, when the market opens and so on. As a result, we need to take some scientific approaches to transform the data.
Now, this looks much better. To interpret this graph, the lower the value, the lower the market impact, the deeper the liquidity.
* Generate Tradable Insights
To generate trade ideas isn’t a difficult task, we all know the RSI, MOM, STOC, etc. all the indicators attempt to draw boundaries, and we can do the same but we need to be a little more advanced and critical.
step 1: we first need to normalize the data. To do that we will take the log of the values to make the skewed distribution normal. The result isn’t ideal if you zoom out but I think this is decent enough to work with. Here is
This is still not a stationary time series, but it looks stable enough and it mean-reverts. So we turn to our lovely standard deviation bands for help.
Step 2: Because this is not a stationary process (visually, you can test it statistically if you wish), we cannot just take sample mean and SD and also because we want to show off our data skills, so we turn to move averages and regressions. I’m going to use moving regression here because I think it is better (mean can be distorted by large values by a larger margin and it lags)
I’m using the moving regression band on TradingView and 1.5 SD here for convenience, you can try to optimize the parameters with codes or other regression models if you wish. But I think it is more important to understand the rationale here.
This step is essentially trying to figure out the anomalies in liquidity so that we can see when there is deep liquidity. This is also why choosing the parameter is crucial because you are essentially approximating how much informed trading is taking place (This is a concept in market microstructure for brokerages to set their spreads but it is not a good tool in a liquid market). By setting the level at 1.5 we are assuming about 86% of the time the market is in what we consider a normal liquid state. (again it is arbitrary, but based on the 68–95–99.7 rule of normal distribution). The rest of the time will be either low or high liquidity, When liquidity is deep, it perhaps, signals institutional money is pouring into the market and big moves may follow.
* Conclusion
There you have it, how to enter the market with the big bucks. But do take note there are plenty of assumptions and a lot to improve on here.
P/L panelThis is not a indicator or strategy.
I thought of having a table showing running profit or loss on chart from a specific price.
I tried to put the same in code and ended up with this code.
This is a table showing the running profit or loss from a manually specified price and quantity.
when you add the code, This table asks us to input the entry price and quantity.
It will calculate the running profit or loss with respect to running price and puts that in the table.
We will have to input two things.
1.) entry price: the price at which a position(long/short) is taken.
2.) Quantity: A +value need to be entered for Long position and -value for short position.
code detects whether its a long position or short position based on the quantity info.
for example if a LONG position is taken at a price 60 of 100 quantity,
then in price we need to enter 60
and in quantity 100 (+ve value)
for SHORT position at a price of 60 of 100 quantity,
in price we need to enter 60
and in quantity -100 (-ve value)
once the table is added to the chart.
Just double click on the table, it will open the settings tab and we can provide new inputs price/quantity/position.
positioning of table is optional and all possible positioning options are provided.
Advise further improvements required if any in this code.
This piece of code can be used along with any indicator.
For which we may need to use valuewhen() additionally.
Try it yourself and ping me if required.
Multi-Length Stochastic Average [LuxAlgo]This indicator returns the average of stochastic oscillators with periods ranging from 4 to length . This allows for a slightly more reactive oscillator as well as having information regarding the position of the price relative to rolling maximums/minimums of different periods.
We introduce settings that allow for pre and post-smoothing, with selectable smoothing methods and periods for both steps.
Settings
Length: Period of the indicator, determine the maximum period of the stochastic oscillator used in the average
Source: Source input of the indicator
Pre-Smoothing (1st Input): Degree of smoothing applied to the source input
Pre-Smoothing (2nd Input): Pre-Smoothing Method
Post-Smoothing (1st Input): Degree of smoothing applied to the final oscillator output
Post-Smoothing (2nd Input): Post-Smoothing Method
Smoothing methods include a simple moving average, a triangular moving average, and a least-squares moving average (this method can induce overshoots during the post-smoothing step). The user can also select "None".
Usages
The "multi-length" aspect of technical indicators is something that hasn't been deeply explored yet such indicators can give us information regarding both short-term and long-term information which was the motivation for the creation of the indicator.
The Multi-length Stochastic Average allows us to quantify the price position relative to a multitude of highest/lowest levels.
In the example above the oscillator returns the average of stochastic oscillators with periods ranging from 4 to 20, as well as multiple rolling minimums with periods ranging from 4 to 20. We can see that when the price is equal to all rolling minimums the oscillator is equal to 0, the oscillator would return 100 if the price were equal to all rolling maximums with periods in that same range.
The oscillator can be interpreted like any scaled oscillator and can be used to estimate trend direction as well as trend strength.
Here we only make of use pre-smoothing by using a period 20 simple moving average. The indicator graphical elements such as colors/circles can help us determine potential directions trends might take.
Circles are displayed when the oscillator crosses over/under the 20/80 level. Such conditions offer better timing than waiting for the oscillator to be greater/lower than 50 and are less subjective to noise than simply looking at the direction taken by the oscillator. However, it can suffer from potential retracements in a trend more easily, this is illustrated in the chart above.
Multi-ZigZag Multi-Oscillator Trend DetectorThis table is intended to give you snapshot of how price and oscillators are moving along with zigzag pivots.
This is done in the same lines of Zigzag-Trend-Divergence-Detector
But, here are the differences
Table shows multiple oscillator movements at a same time instead of one selected oscillator
Divergence is not calculated and also supertrend based trend. Trend can be calculated based on zigzag movements. However, lets keep this for future enhancements.
This system also uses multiple zigzags instead of just one.
⬜ Process
▶ Derive multiple zigzags - Code is taken from Multi-ZigZag
▶ Along with zigzags - also calculate different oscillators and attach it to zigzag pivot.
▶ Calculate directions of zigzag pivots and corresponding oscillators.
▶ Plot everything in the table on last bar.
⬜ Table components
Table contains following data:
Directional legends are:
⇈ - Higher High (Green)
⇊ - Lower Low (Red)
⭡- Lower High (Orange)
⭣ - Higher Low (Lime)
⬜ Input Parameters
▶ Source : Default is close. If Unchecked - uses high/low data for calculating pivots. Can also use external input such as OBV
▶ Stats : Gives option to select the depth of output (History) and also lets you chose text size and table position.
▶ Oscillators : Oscillator length is derived by multiplying multiplier to zigzag length. For example, for zigzag 5, with 4 as multiplier, all oscillators are calculated with length 20. But, same for zigzag 8 will be 32 and so on.
▶ Available oscillators :
CCI - Commodity Channel Index
CMO - Chande Momentum Oscillator
COG - Center Of Gravity
MFI - Money Flow Index (Shows only if volume is present)
MOM - Momentum oscillator
ROC - Rate Of Change
RSI - Relative Strength Index
TSI - Total Strength Index
WPR - William Percent R
BB - Bollinger Percent B
KC - Keltner Channel Percent K
DC - Donchian Channel Percent D
ADC - Adoptive Donchian Channel Percent D ( Adoptive-Donchian-Channel )
⬜ Challenges
There are 12 oscillators and each zigzag has different length. Which means, there are 48 combinations of the ocillators.
First challenge was generating these values without creating lots of static initialization. Also, note, if the functions are not called on each bar, then they will not yield correct result. This is achieved through initializer function which runs on every bar and stores the oscillator values in an array which emulates multi dimensional array oscillator X zigzag length.
Next challenge was getting these values within function when we need it. While doing so I realized that values stored in array also have historical series and calling array.get will actully get you the entire series and not just the value. This is an important takeaway for me and this can be used for further complex implementations.
Thanks to @LonesomeTheBlue and @LucF for some timely suggestions and interesting technical discussions :)
[VJ] Mega Supertrend for IntradayThis is a simple intraday strategy for working on Stocks or commodities based out on Super Trend and intraday's best friend - VWAP . You can modify the start time and end time based on your timezones. Session value should be from market start to the time you want to square-off
Important: The end time should be at least 2 minutes before the intraday square-off time set by your broker
Comment below if you get good returns
Strategy: Tweaked Super trend with VWAP
Indicators used :
Super trend is simple and easy to use indicator and gives a precise reading about an on going trend.It is built with two parameters, namely period and multiplier.The Buy and Sell signal modifies once the indicator tosses over the closing price. When the Super trend closes above the Price, a Buy signal is generated, and when the Super trend closes below the Price, a Sell signal is generated. In this case we use it only for direction .
Multiplier is a vital input for Super trend. If the multiplier value is too high, then lesser number of signals is made.
Volume is important as we don’t want to get stuck with a stock which has few takers, even if you think it is priced attractively. Thus, the VWAP was created to take into account both volume as well as Price so that the potential trader would make the trading decision or not.
In simple terms, the Volume Weighted Average price is the cumulative average price with respect to the volume
Buying/Selling
when the closing price starts moving up/down and farther from the VWAP, there is pressure among the traders to sell/buy, a general belief kicks in that it might be that the stock is overvalued/undervalued .This is the time when we couple the Super trend to take our entries
Usage & Best setting :
Choose a good volatile stock and a time frame - 5m.
ST multiplier : 3
There is stop loss and take profit that can be used to optimise your trade
The template also includes daily square off based on your time.
Sentiment OscillatorPrice moves when there are more market takers than there are market makers at a certain price (i.e. price moves up when there are more market buys than limit sells and vice versa). The idea of this indicator is to show the ratio between market takers and market makers in a way that is intuitive to technical analysis methods, and hopefully revealing the overall sentiment of the market in doing so. You can use it in the same way you would other oscillators (histogram crossing zero, divergences, etc). The main difference between this and most volume-weighted indicators is that the price is divided by volume instead of multiplied by it, thus giving you a rough idea of how much "effort" it took to move the price. My hypothesis is that when more volume is needed to move the price, that means bulls and bears are not in agreement of what the "fair price" should be for an asset (e.g. if the candle closes only a bit higher than its open but there's a huge spike in volume, that tells you that a majority of the market are starting to think the price is too high and they've started selling).
Methods of Calculation
1. Price Change Per Volume
The main method this indicator uses to reveal market sentiment is by comparing price change to the volume of trades in a bar.
You will see this calculation plotted in its most basic form by ticking the "Show Bar per Bar Change/Volume" box in the inputs dialog. I personally found that the plots were too noisy and cannot be used in real time reliably due to the fact that there is not much volume at the open of a new bar. I decided to leave in the option to use this method, in case you'd like to experiment with it or get a better grasp of how the indicator works.
2. Exponential Moving Averages
In my quest to smooth out the plotted data, I experimented with exponential moving averages. Applying an EMA on the change per volume data did smooth it out a bit, but still left in a lot of noise. So I worked around it by applying the EMA to the price change first, and then dividing it by the EMA of the volume. The term I use for the result of this calculation is "Market Sentiment" (do let me know if you have a better-fitting term for it ;-)), and I have kept it as an option that you can use in the way you would use other oscillators like CMF, OBV, etc. This option is unticked by default.
3. MACD
I left "Market Sentiment" unchecked as the default option because I thought an easier way to use this indicator would be as a momentum indicator like the MACD . So that's what I turned it into! I applied another EMA on the Market Sentiment, added a slower EMA to subtract from the first, and now we have a MACD line. I added a signal line to subtract from the MACD , and the result is plotted as a histogram... ish . I used area instead of columns for plot style so you don't get confused when comparing with a regular MACD indicator, but you can always change it if an actual histogram is more your taste.
The "histogram" is the main gauge of sentiment change momentum and it is easiest to use, that is why it is the only calculation plotted by default.
Methods of Use
As I have mentioned before, you can use this as you would other oscillators.
-The easiest way to use this indicator is with the Momentum histogram, where crosses over 0 indicate increasing bullish sentiment, and crosses below 0 indicate increasing bearish sentiment. You may also spot occasional divergences with the histogram.
-For the Market Sentiment option, the easiest way to use it is to look for divergences.
-And if you use the "Price Change per Volume of Each Bar", well... I honestly don't know. I guess divergences would be apparent towards the close of a bar, but in realtime, I don't recommend you use this. Maybe if you'd like to study the market movement, looking at historical data and comparing price, volume , and Change per Volume of each bar would come in handy in a pseudo-tape-reading kind of way.
Anyway, that's my explanation of this indicator. The default values were tested on BTC/USDT (Binance) 4h with decent results. You'll have to adjust the parameters for different markets and timeframes.
I have published this as a strategy so you can test out how the indicator performs as you're tweaking the parameters.
I'm aware that the code might not be the cleanest as I have only started learning pine (and code in general) for about a month, so any suggestions to improve the script would be appreciated!
Good luck and happy trading :-)
The Box Percent StratHi guys,
Version Zero (more work needed) of an idea I've been meaning to out into a strategy for a while. 🤯
This uses percent boxes🤔 instead of traditional indicators like RSI, MACD etc. 🤫
Takes the first close price of the series and creates a Top Band 10% up, buys if price reaches that level, and puts a stop on a Bot Band, 10% down
When the first trade is in profit by another 10%, it enters another trade and moves the stop of the first trade to breakeven ~ this way it only has one unit of risk at a time
/// Designed for LONG only on Daily, 2D or 3D Charts👌🏻
/// Uses fixed investment risk amount, meaning you're willing to lose that amount per trade
/// Limit buy to not overpay on entries
/// Idea Based on the Darvas system:
/// System only enters trades on strength, when prices equals of exceeds the green line
/// It ads onto the trades, but only *IF* the previous trade is in profit by the UpBoxSize percent size
/// The trailing stop loss is moved up, with the red line
/// A key idea is to only take one unit of risk at a time, meaning for a new add on trade to be taken, the previous trade should be in profit by the same box size as the new new trade's stop loss
/// This will keep adding trades again and again, and they will stop out at the same stop loss
/// Yellow Circles is an MA that filters out choppy areas -- this system only does really well on trending linear markets like: TQQQ, SSO, SPX, SPY
/// Base setting is 10% UpBox Size and 10% DnBox Size: 15% & 15% will be more accurate but fewer signals. 13% profit and 10% stop loss will give a higher risk to reward ratio
Cross impro test by Canundo Crossover Crossunder Tick valuesThis is a script where I tried to check the following things:
Even thought the tick of an asset is, for example 0.5, there are calculated prices, like SMA's that have even more decimals. Leading to crosses happening that for example happen at the same price. Consequently triggering totally useless in side markets. What happens if SMA values are restricted to the tick resolution? (Option works on it's own or with a combination of the others.)
What happens if I set my own tick value, like 0.8 instead of 0.5, what will be the effect for calculated values that are used for crossings? Will tick sizes improve the success rate? (This option will work only when the first option is active.)
Can success rate, especially for sideway markets be improved when adding a spread between MA's, so that it triggers less in sideway markets? (Option works on it's own or with a combination of the others.)
First of all, I had a hard time to round prices properly when it needs to be dynamic and working for different assets with different amounts of decimal values in the tick. The solution is that abs(floor(syminfo.mintick)) will give you the amount of decimals a tick has. It works for all ticks that are at least lower than 10. I'm not sure how huge ticks are out there. I did not implement this solution at the end since I found another way to test it.
Findings:
The first option, when activated, takes out half the trades and raises the percent profitability by 8% so there is some effect. However, all of the tested options have less advantage than I hoped for but are nevertheless something worthy for sideway markets. The first option just forces the MA's from the example to use the tick resolution.
See these two images. One when the first option is off, the second when it's active.
The lines are the MA's with adjusted values, the crosses are the places of the MA's when left as is.
Here a screenshot of the third option set to the value 2 on the 1 minute XBTUSD chart.
The advantage is that less trades trigger that have a low change in price and so less trading fees will happen.
The disadvantage is that all options can implement some delay for a crossing since the crossing will trigger once a slightly bigger move into the direction was taken.
This test environment was not meant to be profitable but to test the effects.
Maybe someone finds it interesting or wanted to test the same, so here you can save some work.
BTC Volume Contango IndexBased on my previous script "BTC Contango Index" which was inspired by a Twitter post by Byzantine General:
This is a script that shows the contango between spot and futures volumes of Bitcoin to identify overbought and oversold conditions. When a market is in contango, the volume of a futures contract is higher than the spot volume. Conversely, when a market is in backwardation, the volume of the futures contract is lower than the spot volume.
The aggregate daily volumes on top exchanges are taken to obtain Total Spot Volume and Total Futures Volume. The script then plots (Total Futures Volume/Total Spot Volume) - 1 to illustrate the percent difference (contango) between spot and futures volumes of Bitcoin. This data by itself is useful, but because aggregate futures volumes are so much larger than spot volumes, no negative values are produced. To correct for this, the Z-score of contango is taken. The Z-score (z) of a data item x measures the distance (in standard deviations StdDev) and direction of the item from its mean (U):
Z-score = (x - U) / StDev
A value of zero indicates that the data item x is equal to the mean U, while positive or negative values show that the data item is above or below the mean (x Values of +2 and -2 show that the data item is two standard deviations above or below the chosen mean, respectively, and over 95.5% of all data items are contained within these two horizontal references). We substitute x with volume contango C, the mean U with simple moving average ( SMA ) of n periods (50), and StdDev with the standard deviation of closing contango for n periods (50), so the above formula becomes: Z-score = (C - SMA (50)) / StdDev(C,50).
When in contango, Bitcoin may be overbought.
When in backwardation, Bitcoin may be oversold.
The current bar calculation will always look incorrect due to TV plotting the Z-score before the bar closes.
MACD-X, More Than MACD by DGTMoving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD
The most popular indicator used in technical analysis, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), created by Gerald Appel. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator, designed to reveal changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a financial instrument’s price
Historical evolution of MACD,
- Gerald Appel created the MACD line,
- Thomas Aspray added the histogram feature to MACD
- Giorgos E. Siligardos created a leader of MACD
MACD employs two Moving Averages of varying lengths (which are lagging indicators) to identify trend direction and duration. Then, MACD takes the difference in values between those two Moving Averages (MACD Line) and an EMA of those Moving Averages (Signal Line) and plots that difference between the two lines as a histogram which oscillates above and below a center Zero Line. The histogram is used as a good indication of a security's momentum.
Mathematically expressed as;
macd = ma(source, fast_length) – ma(source, slow_length)
signal = ma(macd, signal_length)
histogram = macd – signal
where exponential moving average (ema) is in common use as a moving average (ma)
fast_length = 12
slow_length = 26
signal_length = 9
The MACD indicator is typically good for identifying three types of basic signals ;
Signal Line Crossovers
A Signal Line Crossover is the most common signal produced by the MACD. On the occasions where the MACD Line crosses above or below the Signal Line, that can signify a potentially strong move. The standard interpretation of such an event is a recommendation to buy if the MACD line crosses up through the Signal Line (a "bullish" crossover), or to sell if it crosses down through the Signal Line (a "bearish" crossover). These events are taken as indications that the trend in the financial instrument is about to accelerate in the direction of the crossover.
Zero Line Crossovers
Zero Line Crossovers occur when the MACD Line crossed the Zero Line and either becomes positive (above 0) or negative (below 0). A change from positive to negative MACD is interpreted as "bearish", and from negative to positive as "bullish". Zero crossovers provide evidence of a change in the direction of a trend but less confirmation of its momentum than a signal line crossover
Divergence
Divergence is another signal created by the MACD. Simply, divergence occurs when the MACD and actual price are not in agreement. A "positive divergence" or "bullish divergence" occurs when the price makes a new low but the MACD does not confirm with a new low of its own. A "negative divergence" or "bearish divergence" occurs when the price makes a new high but the MACD does not confirm with a new high of its own. A divergence with respect to price may occur on the MACD line and/or the MACD Histogram
Moving Average Crossovers , another hidden signal that MACD Indicator identifies
Many traders will watch for a short-term moving average to cross above a longer-term moving average and use this to signal increasing upward momentum. This bullish crossover suggests that the price has recently been rising at a faster rate than it has in the past, so it is a common technical buy sign. Conversely, a short-term moving average crossing below a longer-term average is used to illustrate that the asset's price has been moving downward at a faster rate and that it may be a good time to sell.
Moving Average Crossovers in reality is Zero Line Crossovers, the value of the MACD indicator is equal to zero each time the two moving averages cross over each other. For easy interpretation by trades, Zero Line Crossovers are simply described as positive or negative MACD
False signals
Like any forecasting algorithm, the MACD can generate false signals. A false positive, for example, would be a bullish crossover followed by a sudden decline in a financial instrument. A false negative would be a situation where there is bearish crossover, yet the financial instrument accelerated suddenly upwards
What is “MACD-X” and Why it is “More Than MACD”
In its simples form, MACD-X implements variety of different calculation techniques applied to obtain MACD Line, ability to use of variety of different sources , including Volume related sources, and can be plotted along with MACD in the same window and all those features are available and presented within a single indicator, MACD-X
Different calculation techniques lead to different values for MACD Line, as will further discuss below, and as a consequence the signal line and the histogram values will differentiate accordingly. Mathematical calculation of both signal line and the histogram remain the same.
Main features of MACD-X ;
1- Introduces different proven techniques applied on MACD calculation , such as MACD-Histogram, MACD-Leader and MACD-Source, besides the traditional MACD (MACD-TRADITIONAL)
• MACD-Traditional , by Gerald Appel
It is the MACD that we know, stated as traditional just to avoid confusion with other techniques used with this study
• MACD-Histogram , by Thomas Aspray
The MACD-Histogram measures the distance between MACD and its signal line (the 9-day EMA of MACD). Aspray developed the MACD-Histogram to anticipate signal line crossovers in MACD. Because MACD uses moving averages and moving averages lag price, signal line crossovers can come late and affect the reward-to-risk ratio of a trade. Bullish or bearish divergences in the MACD-Histogram can alert chartists to an imminent signal line crossover in MACD
The MACD-Histogram represents the difference between MACD and its 9-day EMA, the signal line. Mathematically,
macdx = macd - ma(macd, signal_length)
Aspray's contribution served as a way to anticipate (and therefore cut down on lag) possible MACD crossovers which are a fundamental part of the indicator.
Here come a question, what if repeat the same calculations once more (macdh2 = macdh - ma(macdh, signal_length), will it be even better, this question will remain to be tested
• MACD-Leader , by Giorgos E. Siligardos, PhD
MACD Leader has the ability to lead MACD at critical situations. Almost all smoothing methods encounter in technical analysis are based on a relative-weighted sum of past prices, and the Leader is no exception. The concealed weights of MACD Leader are such that more relative weight is used in the more recent prices than the respective weights used by the components of MACD. In effect, the Leader expresses more changes in average price dynamics for the recent price movement than MACD, thus eventually leading MACD, especially when significant trend changes are about to take place.
Siligardos creates two less-laggard moving averages indicators in its formula using the same periods as follows
Indicator1 = ma(source, fast_length) + ma(source - ma(source, fast_length), fast_length)
Indicator2 = ma(source, slow_length) + ma(source - ma(source, slow_length), slow_length)
and then take the difference:
Indicator1 - Indicator2
The result is a new MACD Leader indicator
macdx = macd + ma(source - fast_ma, fast_length) - ma(source - slow_ma, slow_length)
• MACD-Source , a custom experimental interpretation of mine ,
MACD Source, presents an application of MACD that evaluates Source/MA Ratio, relatively with less lag, as a basis for MACD Line, also can be expressed as source convergence/divergence to its moving average. Among the various techniques for removing the lag between price and moving average (MA) of the price, one in particular stands out: the addition to the moving average of a portion of the difference between the price and MA. MACD Source, is based on signal length mean of the difference between Source and average value of shot length and long length moving average of the source (Source/MA Ratio), where the source is actual value and hence no lag and relatively less lag with the average value of moving average of the source . Mathematically expressed as,
macdx = ma(source - avg( ma(source, fast_length), ma(source, slow_length) ), signal_length)
MACD Source provides relatively early crossovers comparing to MACD and better momentum direction indications, assuming the lengths are set to same values
For further details, you are invited to check the following two studies, where the first seeds were sown of the MACD-Source idea
Price Distance to its Moving Averages study, adapts the idea of “Prices high above the moving average (MA) or low below it are likely to be remedied in the future by a reverse price movement", presented in an article by Denis Alajbeg, Zoran Bubas and Dina Vasic published in International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management
First MACD like interpretation comes with the second study named as “ P-MACD ”, where P stands for price, P-MACD study attempts to display relationship between Price and its 20 and 200-period moving average. Calculations with P-MACD were based on price distance (convergence/divergence) to its 200-period moving average, and moving average convergence/divergence of 20-period moving average to 200-period moving average of price.
Now as explained above, MACD Source is a one adapted with traditional MACD, where Source stands for Price, Volume Indicator etc, any source applicable with MACD concept
2- Allows usage of variety of different sources, including Volume related indicators
The most common usage of Source for MACD calculation is close value of the financial instruments price. As an experimental approach, this study will allow source to be selected as one of the following series;
• Current Close Price (close)
• Average of High, Low, and Close Price (hlc3)
• On Balance Volume (obv)
• Accumulation Distribution (accdist)
• Price Volume Trend (pvt)
Where,
-Current Close Price and Average of High, Low, and Close Price are price actions of the financial instrument
- Accumulation Distribution is a volume based indicator designed to measure underlying supply and demand
- On Balance Volume (OBV) , is a momentum indicator that measures positive and negative volume flow
- Price Volume Trend (PVT) is a momentum based indicator used to measure money flow
3- Can be plotted along with MACD in the same window using the same scaling
Default setting of MACD-X will display MACD-Source with Current Close Price as a source and traditional MACD can be plotted eighter as a companion of MACD-X or can be selected to be plotted alone.
Applying both will add ability to compare, or use as a confirmation of one other
In case, traditional MACD Is plotted along with MACD-X to avoid misinterpreting, the lines plotted, the area between MACD-X Line and Signal-X Line is highlighted automatically, even if the highlight option not selected. Otherwise highlight will be applied only if that option selected
4- 4C Histogram
Histogram is plotted with four colors to emphasize the momentum and direction
5- Customizable
Additional to ability of selecting Calculation Method, Source, plotting along with MACD, there are few other option that allows users to customize the MACD-X indicator
Lengths are configurable, default values are set as 12, 26, 9 respectively for fast, slow and smoothing length. Setting lengths to 8,21,5 respectively Is worth checking, slower length moving averages will lead to less lag and earlier reaction to price actions but yet requires a caution and back testing before applying
Highlight the area between MACD-X Line and Signal-X Line, with colors emphasising the direction
Label can be added to display Calculation Method, Source and Length settings, the aim of this label is to server only as a reminder to trades to be aware of settings while they are occupied with charts, analysis etc.
Here comes another question, which is of more importance having the reminder or having the indicators with multi timeframe feature? Build-in Multi Time Frame features of Pine is not supported when labels and lines introduced in the script, there are other methods but brings complexity. To be studied further, this version will be with labels for time being.
Epilogue
MACD-X is an alternative variant of MACD, the insight/signals provided by MACD are also applicable to MACD-X with early and clear warnings for the changes in the trend.
If MACD is essential to your analysis, then it is my guess that after using the MACD-X for a while and familiarizing yourself with its unique character and personality, you will make it an inseparable companion to other indicators in your charts.
The various signals generated by MACD/MACD-X are easily interpreted and very few indicators in technical analysis have proved to be more reliable than the MACD, and this relatively simple indicator can quickly be incorporated into any short-term trading strategy
Disclaimer : Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
Realized Volatility IIR Filters with BandsDISCLAIMER:
The Following indicator/code IS NOT intended to be a formal investment advice or recommendation by the author, nor should be construed as such. Users will be fully responsible by their use regarding their own trading vehicles/assets.
The following indicator was made for NON LUCRATIVE ACTIVITIES and must remain as is following TradingView's regulations. Use of indicator and their code are published by Invitation Only for work and knowledge sharing. All access granted over it, their use, copy or re-use should mention authorship(s) and origin(s).
WARNING NOTICE!
THE INCLUDED FUNCTION MUST BE CONSIDERED AS TESTING. The models included in the indicator have been taken from open sources on the web and some of them has been modified by the author, problems could occur at diverse data sceneries.
WHAT'S THIS...?
Work derived by previous own research for study:
This is mainly an INFINITE IMPULSE RESPONSE FILTERING INDICATOR , it's purpose is to catch trend given by the nature of lag given by a VOLATILITY ESTIMATION ALGORITHM as it's coefficient. It provides as well an INFINITE IMPULSE RESPONSE DEVIATION FILTER that uses the same coefficients of the main filter to plot deviation bands as an auxiliary tool.
The given Filter based indicator provides my own Multi Volatility-Estimators Function with only 3 models:
ELASTIC VOLUME WEIGHTED VOLATILITY : This is a Modified Daigler & Padungsaksawasdi "Volume Weighted Volatility" as on DOI: 10.1504/IJBAAF.2018.089423 but with Elastic Volume Weighted Moving Average instead of VWAP (intraday) for faster (but inaccurate) calculation. A future version is planned on the way using intra-bar inspection for intraday timeframe as described in original paper.
GARMAN & KLASS / YANG-ZANG EXTENSION : As one of the best range based (OHLC) with open gaps inclusion in a single bar.
PETER MARTIN'S ULCER INDEX : This is a better approach to measure realized volatility than standard deviation of log returns given it's proven convex risk metric for DrawDowns as shown in Chekhlov et al. (2005) . Regarding this particular model, I take a different approach to use it as coefficient feed: Given that the UI only takes in consideration DrawDawns, I code myself the inverse of this to compute Draw-Ups as well and use both of them to filter minimums volatility levels in order to create a SLOW version of the IIR filter, and maximums of both to calculate as FAST variation. This approach can be used as a better proxy instead of any other common moving average given that with NO COMPOUND IN TIME AT ALL (N=1) or only using as long as N=3 bars of compund, the filter can catch a trend easily, making the indicator nearly a NON PARAMETRIC FILTER.
NOTES:
This version DO NOT INCLUDE ALERTS.
This version DO NOT INCLUDE STRATEGY: ALL Feedback welcome.
DERIVED WORK:
Incremental calculation of weighted mean and variance by Tony Finch (fanf2@cam. ac .uk) (dot@dotat.at), 2009.
Volume weighted volatility: empirical evidence for a new realised volatility measure by Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Robert T. Daigler, 2018.
Basic DSP Tips & Trics by TradingView user @alexgrover
CHEERS!
@XeL_Arjona 2020.
Backtesting on Non-Standard Charts: Caution! - PineCoders FAQMuch confusion exists in the TradingView community about backtesting on non-standard charts. This script tries to shed some light on the subject in the hope that traders make better use of those chart types.
Non-standard charts are:
Heikin Ashi (HA)
Renko
Kagi
Point & Figure
Range
These chart types are called non-standard because they all transform market prices into synthetic views of price action. Some focus on price movement and disregard time. Others like HA use the same division of bars into fixed time intervals but calculate artificial open, high, low and close (OHLC) values.
Non-standard chart types can provide traders with alternative ways of interpreting price action, but they are not designed to test strategies or run automated traded systems where results depend on the ability to enter and exit trades at precise price levels at specific times, whether orders are issued manually or algorithmically. Ironically, the same characteristics that make non-standard chart types interesting from an analytical point of view also make them ill-suited to trade execution. Why? Because of the dislocation that a synthetic view of price action creates between its non-standard chart prices and real market prices at any given point in time. Switching from a non-standard chart price point into the market always entails a translation of time/price dimensions that results in uncertainty—and uncertainty concerning the level or the time at which orders are executed is detrimental to all strategies.
The delta between the chart’s price when an order is issued (which is assumed to be the expected price) and the price at which that order is filled is called slippage . When working from normal chart types, slippage can be caused by one or more of the following conditions:
• Time delay between order submission and execution. During this delay the market may move normally or be subject to large orders from other traders that will cause large moves of the bid/ask levels.
• Lack of bids for a market sell or lack of asks for a market buy at the current price level.
• Spread taken by middlemen in the order execution process.
• Any other event that changes the expected fill price.
When a market order is submitted, matching engines attempt to fill at the best possible price at the exchange. TradingView strategies usually fill market orders at the opening price of the next candle. A non-standard chart type can produce misleading results because the open of the next candle may or may not correspond to the real market price at that time. This creates artificial and often beneficial slippage that would not exist on standard charts.
Consider an HA chart. The open for each candle is the average of the previous HA bar’s open and close prices. The open of the HA candle is a synthetic value, but the real market open at the time the new HA candle begins on the chart is the unrelated, regular open at the chart interval. The HA open will often be lower on long entries and higher on short entries, resulting in unrealistically advantageous fills.
Another example is a Renko chart. A Renko chart is a type of chart that only measures price movement. The purpose of a Renko chart is to cluster price action into regular intervals, which consequently removes the time element. Because Trading View does not provide tick data as a price source, it relies on chart interval close values to construct Renko bricks. As a consequence, a new brick is constructed only when the interval close penetrates one or more brick thresholds. When a new brick starts on the chart, it is because the previous interval’s close was above or below the next brick threshold. The open price of the next brick will likely not represent the current price at the time this new brick begins, so correctly simulating an order is impossible.
Some traders have argued with us that backtesting and trading off HA charts and other non-standard charts is useful, and so we have written this script to show traders what happens when order fills from backtesting on non-standard charts are compared to real-world fills at market prices.
Let’s review how TV backtesting works. TV backtesting uses a broker emulator to execute orders. When an order is executed by the broker emulator on historical bars, the price used for the fill is either the close of the order’s submission bar or, more often, the open of the next. The broker emulator only has access to the chart’s prices, and so it uses those prices to fill orders. When backtesting is run on a non-standard chart type, orders are filled at non-standard prices, and so backtesting results are non-standard—i.e., as unrealistic as the prices appearing on non-standard charts. This is not a bug; where else is the broker emulator going to fetch prices than from the chart?
This script is a strategy that you can run on either standard or non-standard chart types. It is meant to help traders understand the differences between backtests run on both types of charts. For every backtest, a label at the end of the chart shows two global net profit results for the strategy:
• The net profits (in currency) calculated by TV backtesting with orders filled at the chart’s prices.
• The net profits (in currency) calculated from the same orders, but filled at market prices (fetched through security() calls from the underlying real market prices) instead of the chart’s prices.
If you run the script on a non-standard chart, the top result in the label will be the result you would normally get from the TV backtesting results window. The bottom result will show you a more realistic result because it is calculated from real market fills.
If you run the script on a normal chart type (bars, candles, hollow candles, line, area or baseline) you will see the same result for both net profit numbers since both are run on the same real market prices. You will sometimes see slight discrepancies due to occasional differences between chart prices and the corresponding information fetched through security() calls.
Features
• Results shown in the Data Window (third icon from the top right of your chart) are:
— Cumulative results
— For each order execution bar on the chart, the chart and market previous and current fills, and the trade results calculated from both chart and market fills.
• You can choose between 2 different strategies, both elementary.
• You can use HA prices for the calculations determining entry/exit conditions. You can use this to see how a strategy calculated from HA values can run on a normal chart. You will notice that such strategies will not produce the same results as the real market results generated from HA charts. This is due to the different environment backtesting is running on where for example, position sizes for entries on the same bar will be calculated differently because HA and standard chart close prices differ.
• You can choose repainting/non-repainting signals.
• You can show MAs, entry/exit markers and market fill levels.
• You can show candles built from the underlying market prices.
• You can color the background for occurrences where an order is filled at a different real market price than the chart’s price.
Notes
• On some non-standard chart types you will not obtain any results. This is sometimes due to how certain types of non-standard types work, and sometimes because the script will not emit orders if no underlying market information is detected.
• The script illustrates how those who want to use HA values to calculate conditions can do so from a standard chart. They will then be getting orders emitted on HA conditions but filled at more realistic prices because their strategy can run on a standard chart.
• On some non-standard chart types you will see market results surpass chart results. While this may seem interesting, our way of looking at it is that it points to how unreliable non-standard chart backtesting is, and why it should be avoided.
• In order not to extend an already long description, we do not discuss the particulars of executing orders on the realtime bar when using non-standard charts. Unless you understand the minute details of what’s going on in the realtime bar on a particular non-standard chart type, we recommend staying away from this.
• Some traders ask us: Why does TradingView allow backtesting on non-standard chart types if it produces unrealistic results? That’s somewhat like asking a hammer manufacturer why it makes hammers if hammers can hurt you. We believe it’s a trader’s responsibility to understand the tools he is using.
Takeaways
• Non-standard charts are not bad per se, but they can be badly used.
• TV backtesting on non-standard charts is not broken and doesn’t require fixing. Traders asking for a fix are in dire need of learning more about trading. We recommend they stop trading until they understand why.
• Stay away from—even better, report—any vendor presenting you with strategies running on non-standard charts and implying they are showing reliable results.
• If you don’t understand everything we discussed, don’t use non-standard charts at all.
• Study carefully how non-standard charts are built and the inevitable compromises used in calculating them so you can understand their limitations.
Thanks to @allanster and @mortdiggiddy for their help in editing this description.
Look first. Then leap.
Great Expectations [LucF]Great Expectations helps traders answer the question: What is possible? It is a powerful question, yet exploration of the unknown always entails risk. A more complete set of questions better suited to traders could be:
What opportunity exists from any given point on a chart?
What portion of this opportunity can be realistically captured?
What risk will be incurred in trying to do so, and how long will it take?
Great Expectations is the result of an exploration of these questions. It is a trade simulator that generates visual and quantitative information to help strategy modelers visually identify and analyse areas of optimal expectation on charts, whether they are designing automated or discretionary strategies.
WARNING: Great Expectations is NOT an indicator that helps determine the current state of a market. It works by looking at points in the past from which the future is already known. It uses one definition of repainting extensively (i.e. it goes back in the past to print information that could not have been know at the time). Repainting understood that way is in fact almost all the indicator does! —albeit for what I hope is a noble cause. The indicator is of no use whatsoever in analyzing markets in real-time. If you do not understand what it does, please stay away!
This is an indicator—not a strategy that uses TradingView’s backtesting engine. It works by simulating trades, not unlike a backtest, but with the crucial difference that it assumes a trade (either long or short) is entered on all bars in the historic sample. It walks forward from each bar and determines possible outcomes, gathering individual trade statistics that in turn generate precious global statistics from all outcomes tested on the chart.
Great Expectations provides numbers summarizing trade results on all simulations run from the chart. Those numbers cannot be compared to backtest-produced numbers since all non-filtered bars are examined, even if an entry was taken on the bar immediately preceding the current one, which never happens in a backtest. This peculiarity does NOT invalidate Great Expectations calculations; it just entails that results be considered under a different light. Provided they are evaluated within the indicator’s context, they can be useful—sometimes even more than backtesting results, e.g. in evaluating the impact of parameter-fitting or variations in entry, exit or filtering strats.
Traders and strategy modelers are creatures of hope often suffering from blurred vision; my hope is that Great Expectations will help them appraise the validity of their setup and strat intuitions in a realistic fashion, preventing confirmation bias from obstructing perspective—and great expectations from turning into financial great deceptions.
USE CASES
You’ve identified what looks like a promising setup on other indicators. You load Great Expectations on the chart and evaluate if its high-expectation areas match locations where your setup’s conditions occur. Unless today is your lucky day, chances are the indicator will help you realize your setup is not as promising as you had hoped.
You want to get a rough estimate of the optimal trade duration for a chart and you don’t mind using the entry and exit strategies provided with the indicator. You use the trade length readouts of the indicator.
You’re experimenting with a new stop strategy and want to know how long it will keep you in trades, on average. You integrate your stop strategy in the indicator’s code and look at the average trade length it produces and the TST ratio to evaluate its performance.
You have put together your own entry and exit criteria and are looking for a filter that will help you improve backtesting results. You visually ascertain the suitability of your filter by looking at its results on the charts with great Expectations, to see if your filter is choosing its areas correctly.
You have a strategy that shows backtested trades on your chart. Great Expectations can help you evaluate how well your strategy is benefitting from high-opportunity areas while avoiding poor expectation spots.
You want more complete statistics on your set of strategies than what backtesting will provide. You use Great Expectations, knowing that it tests all bars in the sample that correspond to your criteria, as opposed to backtesting results which are limited to a subset of all possible entries.
You want to fool your friends into thinking you’ve designed the holy grail of indicators, something that identifies optimal opportunities on any chart; you show them the P&L cloud.
FEATURES
For one trade
At any given point on the chart, assuming a trade is entered there, Great Expectations shows you information specific to that trade simulation both on the chart and in the Data Window.
The chart can display:
the P & L Cloud which shows whether the trade ended profitably or not, and by how much,
the Opportunity & Risk Cloud which the maximum opportunity and risk the simulation encountered. When superimposed over the P & L cloud, you will see what I call the managed opportunity and risk, i.e the portion of maximum opportunity that was captured and the portion of the maximum risk that was incurred,
the target and if it was reached,
a background that uses a gradient to show different levels of trade length, P&L or how frequently the target was reached during simulation.
The Data Window displays more than 40 values on individual trades and global results. For any given trade you will know:
Entry/Exit levels, including slippage impact,
It’s outcome and duration,
P/L achieved,
The fraction of the maximum opportunity/risk managed by the trade.
For all trades
After going through all the possible trades on the chart, the indicator will provide you with a rare view of all outcomes expressed with the P&L cloud, which allows us to instantly see the most/least profitable areas of a chart using trade data as support, while also showing its relationship with the opportunity/risk encountered during the simulation. The difference between the two clouds is the managed opportunity and risk.
The Data Window will present you with numbers which we will go through later. Some of them are: average stop size, P/L, win rate, % opportunity managed, trade lengths for different types of trade outcomes and the TST (Target:Stop Travel) ratio.
Let’s see Great Expectations in action… and remember to open your Data Window!
INPUTS
Trade direction : You must first choose if you wish to look at long or short trades. Because of the way the indicator works and the amount of visual information on the chart, it is only practical to look at one type of trades at a time. The default is Longs.
Maximum trade Length (MaxL) : This is the maximum walk forward distance the simulator will go in analyzing outcomes from any given point in the past. It also determines the size of the dead zone among the chart’s last bars. A red background line identifies the beginning of the dead zone for which not enough bars have elapsed to analyze outcomes for the maximum trade length defined. If an ATR-based entry stop is used, that length is added to the wait time before beginning simulations, so that the first entry starts with a clean ATR value. On a sample of around 16000 bars, my tests show that the indicator runs into server errors at lengths of around 290, i.e. having completed ~4,6M simulation loop iterations. That is way too high a length anyways; 100 will usually be amply enough to ring out all the possibilities out of a simulation, and on shorter time frames, 30 can be enough. While making it unduly small will prevent simulations of expressing the market’s potential, the less you use, the faster the indicator will run. The default is 40.
Unrealized P&L base at End of Trade (EOT) : When a simulation ends and the trade is still open, we calculate unrealized P&L from an exit order executed from either the last in-trade stop on the previous bar, or the close of the last bar. You can readily see the impact of this selection on the chart, with the P&L cloud. The default is on the close.
Display : The check box besides the title does nothing.
Show target : Shows a green line displaying the trade’s target expressed as a multiple of X, i.e. the amplitude of the entry stop. I call this value “X” and use it as a unit to express profit and loss on a trade (some call it “R”). The line is highlighted for trades where the close reached the target during the trade, whether the trade ended in profit or loss. This is also where you specify the multiple of X you wish to use in calculating targets. The multiple is used even if targets are not displayed.
Show P&L Cloud : The cloud allows traders to see right away the profitable areas of the chart. The only line printed with the cloud is the “end of trade line” (EOT). The EOT line is the only way one can see the level where a trade ended on the chart (in the Data Window you can see it as the “Exit Fill” value). The EOT level for the trade determines if the trade ended in a profit or a loss. Its value represents one of the following:
- fill from order executed at close of bar where stop is breached during trade (which produces “Realized P/L”),
- simulation of a fill pseudo-fill at the user-defined EOT level (last close or stop level) if the trade runs its course through MaxL bars without getting stopped (producing Unrealized P/L).
The EOT line and the cloud fill print in green when the trade’s outcome is profitable and in red when it is not. If the trade was closed after breaching the stop, the line appears brighter.
Show Opportunity&Risk Cloud : Displays the maximum opportunity/risk that was present during the trade, i.e. the maximum and minimum prices reached.
Background Color Scheme : Allows you to choose between 3 different color schemes for the background gradients, to accommodate different types of chart background/candles. Select “None” if you don’t want a background.
Background source : Determines what value will be used to generate the different intensities of the gradient. You can choose trade length (brighter is shorter), Trade P&L (brighter is higher) or the number of times the target was reached during simulation (brighter is higher). The default is Trade Length.
Entry strat : The check box besides the title does nothing. The default strat is All bars, meaning a trade will be simulated from all bars not excluded by the filters where a MaxL bars future exists. For fun, I’ve included a pseudo-random entry strat (an indirect way of changing the seed is to vary the starting date of the simulation).
Show Filter State : Displays areas where the combination of filters you have selected are allowing entries. Filtering occurs as per your selection(s), whether the state is displayed or not. The effect of multiple selections is additive. The filters are:
1. Bar direction: Longs will only be entered if close>open and vice versa.
2. Rising Volume: Applies to both long and shorts.
3. Rising/falling MA of the length you choose over the number of bars you choose.
4. Custom indicator: You can feed your own filtering signal through this from another indicator. It must produce a signal of 1 to allow long entries and 0 to allow shorts.
Show Entry Stops :
1. Multiple of user-defined length ATR.
2. Fixed percentage.
3. Fixed value.
All entry stops are calculated using the entry fill price as a reference. The fill price is calculated from the current bar’s open, to which slippage is added if configured. This simulates the case where the strategy issued the entry signal on the previous bar for it to be executed at the next bar’s open.
The entry stop remains active until the in-trade stop becomes the more aggressive of the two stops. From then on, the entry stop will be ignored, unless a bar close breaches the in-trade stop, in which case the stop will be reset with a new entry stop and the process repeats.
Show In-trade stops : Displays in bright red the selected in-trade stop (be sure to read the note in this section about them).
1. ATR multiple: added/subtracted from the average of the two previous bars minimum/maximum of open/close.
2. A trailing stop with a deviation expressed as a multiple of entry stop (X).
3. A fixed percentage trailing stop.
Trailing stops deviations are measured from the highest/lowest high/low reached during the trade.
Note: There is a twist with the in-trade stops. It’s that for any given bar, its in-trade stop can hold multiple values, as each successive pass of the advancing simulation loops goes over it from a different entry points. What is printed is the stop from the loop that ended on that bar, which may have nothing to do with other instances of the trade’s in-trade stop for the same bar when visited from other starting points in previous simulations. There is just no practical way to print all stop values that were used for any given bar. While the printed entry stops are the actual ones used on each bar, the in-trade stops shown are merely the last instance used among many.
Include Slippage : if checked, slippage will be added/subtracted from order price to yield the fill price. Slippage is in percentage. If you choose to include slippage in the simulations, remember to adjust it by considering the liquidity of the markets and the time frame you’ll be analyzing.
Include Fees : if checked, fees will be subtracted/added to both realized an unrealized trade profits/losses. Fees are in percentage. The default fees work well for crypto markets but will need adjusting for others—especially in Forex. Remember to modify them accordingly as they can have a major impact on results. Both fees and slippage are included to remind us of their importance, even if the global numbers produced by the indicator are not representative of a real trading scenario composed of sequential trades.
Date Range filtering : the usual. Just note that the checkbox has to be selected for date filtering to activate.
DATA WINDOW
Most of the information produced by this indicator is made available in the Data Window, which you bring up by using the icon below the Watchlist and Alerts buttons at the right of the TV UI. Here’s what’s there.
Some of the information presented in the Data Window is standard trade data; other values are not so standard; e. g. the notions of managed opportunity and risk and Target:Stop Travel ratio. The interplay between all the values provided by Great Expectations is inherently complex, even for a static set of entry/filter/exit strats. During the constant updating which the habitual process of progressive refinement in building strategies that is the lot of strategy modelers entails, another level of complexity is no doubt added to the analysis of this indicator’s values. While I don’t want to sound like Wolfram presenting A New Kind of Science , I do believe that if you are a serious strategy modeler and spend the time required to get used to using all the information this indicator makes available, you may find it useful.
Trade Information
Entry Order : This is the open of the bar where simulation starts. We suppose that an entry signal was generated at the previous bar.
Entry Fill (including slip.) : The actual entry price, including slippage. This is the base price from which other values will be calculated.
Exit Order : When a stop is breached, an exit order is executed from the close of the bar that breached the stop. While there is no “In-trade stop” value included in the Data Window (other than the End of trade Stop previously discussed), this “Exit Order” value is how we can know the level where the trade was stopped during the simulation. The “Trade Length” value will then show the bar where the stop was breached.
Exit Fill (including slip.) : When the exit order is simulated, slippage is added to the order level to create the fill.
Chart: Target : This is the target calculated at the beginning of the simulation. This value also appear on the chart in teal. It is controlled by the multiple of X defined under the “Show Target” checkbox in the Inputs.
Chart: Entry Stop : This value also appears on the chart (the red dots under points where a trade was simulated). Its value is controlled by the Entry Strat chosen in the Inputs.
X (% Fill, including Fees) and X (currency) : This is the stop’s amplitude (Entry Fill – Entry Stop) + Fees. It represents the risk incurred upon entry and will be used to express P&L. We will show R expressed in both a percentage of the Entry Fill level (this value), and currency (the next value). This value represents the risk in the risk:reward ratio and is considered to be a unit of 1 so that RR can be expressed as a single value (i.e. “2” actually meaning “1:2”).
Trade Length : If trade was stopped, it’s the number of bars elapsed until then. The trade is then considered “Closed”. If the trade ends without being stopped (there is no profit-taking strat implemented, so the stop is the only exit strat), then the trade is “Open”, the length is MaxL and it will show in orange. Otherwise the value will print in green/red to reflect if the trade is winning/losing.
P&L (X) : The P&L of the trade, expressed as a multiple of X, which takes into account fees paid at entry and exit. Given our default target setting at 2 units of “X”, a trade that closes at its target will have produced a P&L of +2.0, i.e. twice the value of X (not counting fees paid at exit ). A trade that gets stopped late 50% further that the entry stop’s level will produce a P&L of -1.5X.
P&L (currency, including Fees) : same value as above, but expressed in currency.
Target first reached at bar : If price closed above the target during the trade (even if it occurs after the trade was stopped), this will show when. This value will be used in calculating our TST ratio.
Times Stop/Target reached in sim. : Includes all occurrences during the complete simulation loop.
Opportunity (X) : The highest/lowest price reached during a simulation, i.e. the maximum opportunity encountered, whether the trade was previously stopped or not, expressed as a multiple of X.
Risk (X) : The lowest/highest price reached during a simulation, i.e. the maximum risk encountered, whether the trade was previously stopped or not, expressed as a multiple of X.
Risk:Opportunity : The greater this ratio, the greater Opportunity is, compared to Risk.
Managed Opportunity (%) : The portion of Opportunity that was captured by the highest/low stop position, even if it occurred after a previous stop closed the trade.
Managed Risk (%) : The portion of risk that was protected by the lowest/highest stop position, even if it occurred after a previous stop closed the trade. When this value is greater than 100%, it means the trade’s stop is protecting more than the maximum risk, which is frequent. You will, however, never see close to those values for the Managed Opportunity value, since the stop would have to be higher than the Maximum opportunity. It is much easier to alleviate the risk than it is to lock in profits.
Managed Risk:Opportunity : The ratio of the two preceding values.
Managed Opp. vs. Risk : The Managed Opportunity minus the Managed Risk. When it is negative, which is most often is, it means your strat is protecting a greater portion of the risk than it captures opportunity.
Global Numbers
Win Rate(%) : Percentage of winning trades over all entries. Open trades are considered winning if their last stop/close (as per user selection) locks in profits.
Avg X%, Avg X (currency) : Averages of previously described values:.
Avg Profitability/Trade (APPT) : This measures expectation using: Average Profitability Per Trade = (Probability of Win × Average Win) − (Probability of Loss × Average Loss) . It quantifies the average expectation/trade, which RR alone can’t do, as the probabilities of each outcome (win/lose) must also be used to calculate expectancy. The APPT combine the RR with the win rate to yield the true expectancy of a strategy. In my usual way of expressing risk with X, APPT is the equivalent of the average P&L per trade expressed in X. An APPT of -1.5 means that we lose on average 1.5X/trade.
Equity (X), Equity (currency) : The cumulative result of all trade outcomes, expressed as a multiple of X. Multiplied by the Average X in currency, this yields the Equity in currency.
Risk:Opportunity, Managed Risk:Opportunity, Managed Opp. vs. Risk : The global values of the ones previously described.
Avg Trade Length (TL) : One of the most important values derived by going through all the simulations. Again, it is composed of either the length of stopped trades, or MaxL when the trade isn’t stopped (open). This value can help systems modelers shape the characteristics of the components they use to build their strategies.
Avg Closed Win TL and Avg Closed Lose TL : The average lengths of winning/losing trades that were stopped.
Target reached? Avg bars to Stop and Target reached? Avg bars to Target : For the trades where the target was reached at some point in the simulation, the number of bars to the first point where the stop was breached and where the target was reached, respectively. These two values are used to calculate the next value.
TST (Target:Stop Travel Ratio) : This tracks the ratio between the two preceding values (Bars to first stop/Bars to first target), but only for trades where the target was reached somewhere in the loop. A ratio of 2 means targets are reached twice as fast as stops.
The next values of this section are counts or percentages and are self-explanatory.
Chart Plots
Contains chart plots of values already describes.
NOTES
Optimization/Overfitting: There is a fine line between optimizing and overfitting. Tools like this indicator can lead unsuspecting modelers down a path of overfitting that often turns strategies into over-specialized beasts that do not perform elegantly when confronted to the real-world. Proven testing strategies like walk forward analysis will go a long way in helping modelers alleviate this risk.
Input tuning: Because the results generated by the indicator will vary with the parameters used in the active entry, filtering and exit strats, it’s important to realize that although it may be fun at first, just slapping the default settings on a chart and time frame will not yield optimal nor reliable results. While using ATR as often as possible (as I do in this indicator) is a good way to make strat parametrization adaptable, it is not a foolproof solution.
There is no data for the last MaxL bars of the chart, since not enough trade future has elapsed to run a simulation from MaxL bars back.
Modifying the code: I have tried to structure the code modularly, even if that entails a larger code base, so that you can adapt it to your needs. I’ve included a few token components in each of the placeholders designed for entry strategies, filters, entry stops and in-trade stops. This will hopefully make it easier to add your own. In the same spirit, I have also commented liberally.
You will find in the code many instances of standard trade management tasks that can be lifted to code TV strategies where, as I do in mine, you manage everything yourself and don’t rely on built-in Pine strategy functions to act on your trades.
Enjoy!
THANKS
To @scarf who showed me how plotchar() could be used to plot values without ruining scale.
To @glaz for the suggestion to include a Chandelier stop strat; I will.
To @simpelyfe for the idea of using an indicator input for the filters (if some day TV lets us use more than one, it will be useful in other modules of the indicator).
To @RicardoSantos for the random generator used in the random entry strat.
To all scripters publishing open source on TradingView; their code is the best way to learn.
To my trading buddies Irving and Bruno; who showed me way back how pro traders get it done.
ATR+VWAP Alert//These signals mostly consist of crossovers between a 13 VWMA and a 62 VWMA. I've found these two moving averages to be quite special in their ability to
//recognize a quick trend using volume data. The VWAP is used in the alert system as well, to give some perspective on which direction we are looking to take. We
//are also using ATR. We only take trades when the ATR is on the move, meaning we have a chance to catch a volatile move! Finally, we use RSI to help weed out bad
//trades. We only take 'longs' with bullish readings from RSI, and we only take 'shorts' with bearish readings from RSI. These alerts are fantastic for catching quick intraday
//trades in either direction. I recommend using a small 'take profit' target rather than using an exit indicator. These trades can move 20-30 pips and reverse just as quickly. Good luck!
//How To Use:
//When the alert system is added to the chart, you will notice up/down symbols appear at various locations. For bullish alerts, right click an 'Up' symbol and choose 'Add Alert on VWap & ATR..'
//There are two condition options. 'Long/short', and right below that 'Buy-Signal/Sell-Signal'. Choose 'long' and 'Buy-Signal'. At options, choose 'Once Per Bar Close'. Design your alert, and you're good to go.
//For bearish signals, find a 'down' signal on the chart. Right click and follow the same process, except choosing 'short/Sell-Signal' conditions.
Tips:
Use VWAP as a stop-loss. If a candle closes below/above the VWAP in the direction against you.. get out of the trade. The losses will be minimal and few compared to the wins. Use discretion and trade carefully. This works great with crypto. Invent your own exit. If you come up with a clever exit, please share!
You can contact me at my Discord!
discord.gg
Weekend Hunter Ultimate v6.2 Weekend Hunter Ultimate v6.2 - Automated Crypto Weekend Trading System
OVERVIEW:
Specialized trading strategy designed for cryptocurrency weekend markets (Saturday-Sunday) when institutional traders are typically offline and market dynamics differ significantly from weekdays. Optimized for 15-minute timeframe execution with multi-timeframe confluence analysis.
KEY FEATURES:
- Weekend-Only Trading: Automatically activates during configurable weekend hours
- Dynamic Leverage: 5-20x leverage adjusted based on market safety and signal confidence
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Combines 4H trend, 1H momentum, and 15M execution
- 10 Pre-configured Crypto Pairs: BTC, ETH, LINK, XRP, DOGE, SOL, AVAX, PEPE, TON, POL
- Position & Risk Management: Max 4 concurrent positions, -30% account protection
- Smart Trailing Stops: Protects profits when approaching targets
RISK MANAGEMENT:
- Maximum daily loss: 5% (configurable)
- Maximum weekend loss: 15% (configurable)
- Per-position risk: Capped at 120-156 USDT
- Emergency stops for flash crashes (8% moves)
- Consecutive loss protection (4 losses = pause)
TECHNICAL INDICATORS:
- CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) divergence detection
- ATR-based dynamic stop loss and take profit
- RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands confluence
- Volume surge confirmation (1.5x average)
- Weekend liquidity adjustments
INTEGRATION:
- Designed for Bybit Futures (0.075% taker fee)
- WunderTrading webhook compatibility via JSON alerts
- Minimum position size: 120 USDT (Bybit requirement)
- Initial capital: $500 recommended
TARGET METRICS:
- Win rate target: 65%
- Average win: 5.5%
- Average loss: 1.8%
- Risk-reward ratio: ~3:1
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS:
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Leveraged trading carries substantial risk of loss
- Weekend crypto markets have 13% of normal liquidity
- Not suitable for traders who cannot afford to lose their entire investment
- Requires continuous monitoring and adjustment
USAGE:
1. Apply to 15-minute charts only
2. Configure weekend hours for your timezone
3. Set up webhook alerts for automation
4. Monitor performance table in top-right corner
5. Adjust parameters based on your risk tolerance
This is an experimental strategy for educational purposes. Always test with small amounts first and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
Trend Score with Dynamic Stop Loss HTF
How the Trend Score System Works
This indicator uses a Trend Score (TS) to measure price momentum over time. It tracks whether price is breaking higher or lower, then sums these moves into a cumulative score to define trend direction.
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1. Trend Score (+1 / -1 Mechanism)
On each new bar:
• +1 point: if the current bar breaks the previous bar’s high.
• −1 point: if the current bar breaks the previous bar’s low.
• If both happen in the same bar, they cancel each other out.
• If neither happens, the score does not change.
This creates a simple running measure of bullish vs bearish pressure.
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2. Cumulative Trend Score
The Trend Score is cumulative, meaning each new +1 or -1 is added to the total score, building a continuous count.
• Rising scores = buyers are consistently pushing price to higher highs.
• Falling scores = sellers are consistently pushing price to lower lows.
This smooths out noise and helps identify persistent momentum rather than single-bar spikes.
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3. Trend Flip Trigger (default = 3)
A trend flip occurs when the cumulative Trend Score changes by 3 points (default setting) in the opposite direction of the current trend.
• Bullish Flip:
• Cumulative TS rises 3 points from its most recent low pivot.
• Marks a potential start of a new uptrend.
• A bullish stop-loss (SL) is set at the most recent swing low.
• Bearish Flip:
• Cumulative TS falls 3 points from its most recent high pivot.
• Marks a potential start of a new downtrend.
• A bearish SL is set at the most recent swing high.
Example:
• TS is at -2, then climbs to +1.
• That’s a +3 change, triggering a bullish flip.
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4. Visual Summary
• Green background: Active bullish trend.
• Red background: Active bearish trend.
• ▲ Triangle Up: A bullish flip occurred this bar.
• Stop Loss Line: Shows the structural low used for risk management.
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Why This Matters
The Trend Score measures trend pressure simply and objectively:
• +1 / -1 mechanics track real price behavior (breakouts of highs and lows).
• Cumulative changes of 3 points act like a momentum filter, ignoring small reversals.
• This helps you see true regime shifts on higher timeframes, which is especially useful for swing trades and investing decisions.
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Key Takeaways
• Only flips after meaningful swings: prevents overreacting to single-bar noise.
• SL shows invalidation point: helps you know where a trend thesis fails.
• Works best on Daily or Weekly charts: for smoother, more reliable signals. Using Trend Score for Long-Term Investing
This indicator is designed to support decision-making for higher timeframe investing, such as swing trades, multi-month positions, or even multi-year holds.
It helps you:
• Identify major bullish regimes.
• Decide when to add to winning positions (DCA up).
• Know when to pause buying or consider trimming during weak periods.
• Stay disciplined while holding long-term winners.
Important Note:
These are suggestions for context. Always combine them with your own analysis, portfolio allocation rules, and risk tolerance.
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1. Start With the Higher Timeframe
• Use Weekly charts for a broad investing view.
• Use Daily charts only for fine-tuning entry points or deciding when to add.
• A Bullish Flip on Weekly suggests the market may be entering a major uptrend.
• If Weekly is bullish and Daily also turns bullish, it’s extra confirmation of strength.
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2. Building a Position with DCA
Goal: Grow your position gradually during strong bullish regimes while staying aware of risk.
A. Initial Buy
• Start with a small initial allocation when a Bullish Flip appears on Weekly or Daily.
• This is just a starter position to get exposure while the new trend develops.
B. Adding Through Strength (DCA Up)
• Consider adding during pullbacks, as long as price stays above the active SL line.
• Each add should be smaller or equal to your first buy.
• Spread out adds over time or price levels, instead of going all-in at once.
C. Pause Buying When:
• Price approaches or touches the SL level (trend invalidation).
• A Bearish Flip appears on Weekly or Daily — this signals potential weakness.
• Your total position size reaches your maximum allocation limit for that asset.
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3. Holding Winners
When a position grows in profit:
• Stay in the trend as long as the Weekly regime remains bullish.
• The indicator’s green background acts as a reminder to hold, not panic sell.
• Use the SL bubble to monitor where the trend could potentially break.
• Avoid selling just because of small pullbacks — focus on big-picture trend health.
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4. Taking Partial Profits
While this tool is designed to help hold long-term winners, there may be times to lighten risk:
• After large, rapid moves far above the SL, consider trimming a small portion of your position.
• When MFE (Maximum Favorable Excursion) in the table reaches unusually high levels, it may signal overextension.
• If the Weekly chart turns Neutral or Bearish, you can gradually reduce exposure while waiting for the next Bullish Flip.
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5. Using the Stop Loss Line for Awareness
The Dynamic SL line represents a structural level that, if broken, may suggest the bullish trend is weakening.
How to think about it:
• Above SL: Market remains structurally healthy — continue holding or adding gradually.
• Close to SL: Pause adds. Be cautious and consider tightening your risk.
• Below SL: Treat this as a potential signal to reassess your position, especially if the break is confirmed on Weekly.
The SL is not a hard stop — it’s a visual guide to help you manage expectations.
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6. Example Use Case
Imagine you are investing in a growth stock:
• Weekly Bullish Flip: You open a small starter position.
• Price pulls back slightly but stays above SL: You add a second, smaller tranche.
• Trend continues up for months: You hold and stop adding once your desired allocation is reached.
• Price doubles: You trim 10–20% to lock some profits, but continue holding the majority.
• Price later dips below SL: You slow down, reassess, and decide whether to reduce exposure.
This keeps you:
• Participating in major uptrends.
• Avoiding overcommitment during weak phases.
• Making adjustments gradually, not emotionally.
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7. Suggested Workflow
1. Check Weekly chart → is it Bullish?
2. If yes, review Daily chart to fine-tune entry or adds.
3. Build exposure gradually while Weekly remains bullish.
4. Watch SL bubbles as awareness points for risk management.
5. Use partial trims during big rallies, but avoid exiting entirely too soon.
6. Reassess if Weekly turns Neutral or Bearish.
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Key Takeaways
• Use this as a compass, not a command system.
• Weekly flips = big picture direction.
• Daily flips = timing and precision.
• Add gradually (DCA) while above SL, pause near SL, reassess below SL.
• Hold winners as long as Weekly remains bullish.
