Key Support and ResistanceKEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE - USER GUIDE
========================================
OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically identifies and displays key support and resistance levels based on swing highs and swing lows. It uses pivot point detection to mark significant price levels where the market has previously shown reactions, helping traders identify potential entry/exit points and key decision zones.
KEY FEATURES
• Automatic Level Detection: Identifies swing highs (resistance) and swing lows (support) using pivot point analysis
• Dynamic Line Management: Displays only recent levels within a specified lookback period to keep charts clean
• Auto-Extending Lines: Projects support/resistance levels forward to anticipate future price interactions
• Color-Coded Levels: Red lines for resistance, green lines for support for easy visual identification
========================================
PARAMETERS
========================================
Left Bars (Default: 10)
• Minimum: 5 bars
• Number of bars to the left of the pivot point
• Higher values = more significant levels but fewer signals
• Lower values = more sensitive detection but may include minor swings
Right Bars (Default: 10)
• Minimum: 5 bars
• Number of bars to the right of the pivot point
• Must be confirmed by price action before the level is drawn
• Balances between confirmation delay and signal accuracy
Show Last N Bars (Default: 200)
• Minimum: 10 bars
• Only displays support/resistance levels detected within the most recent N bars
• Keeps your chart clean by removing outdated levels
• Adjust based on your trading timeframe and style
Line Extension Length (Default: 48)
• Minimum: 1 bar
• How many bars forward the support/resistance lines extend
• Helps visualize potential future price interactions
• Longer extensions useful for swing trading, shorter for day trading
========================================
HOW TO USE
========================================
FOR SWING TRADERS
1. Use default settings (10/10) or increase to 15/15 for more significant levels
2. Set "Show Last N Bars" to 300-500 to capture longer-term levels
3. Look for price reactions when approaching these levels
4. Combine with volume analysis for confirmation
FOR DAY TRADERS
1. Consider reducing Left/Right Bars to 7-8 for more frequent signals
2. Set "Show Last N Bars" to 100-150 to focus on recent action
3. Reduce "Line Extension Length" to 20-30 bars
4. Watch for intraday bounces or breakouts at these levels
TRADING STRATEGIES
Bounce Trading (Mean Reversion)
• Enter long when price approaches green support lines
• Enter short when price approaches red resistance lines
• Use stop loss just beyond the support/resistance level
• Best in ranging or consolidating markets
Breakout Trading (Trend Following)
• Wait for price to break through resistance (bullish) or support (bearish)
• Confirm with increased volume
• Previous resistance becomes new support (and vice versa)
• Best in trending markets
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
• Check higher timeframe levels for major support/resistance zones
• Use lower timeframe levels for precise entry/exit timing
• Confluence of multiple timeframe levels creates strong zones
========================================
IMPORTANT NOTES
========================================
Line Confirmation Delay
• Lines appear with a delay equal to "Right Bars" parameter
• This delay ensures the pivot point is confirmed
• Real-time level detection requires price action confirmation
Chart Clarity
• Maximum 500 lines can be displayed (TradingView limitation)
• Adjust "Show Last N Bars" if chart becomes too cluttered
• Old lines automatically delete when outside the lookback period
False Signals
• Not all support/resistance levels will hold
• Use additional confirmation (volume, candlestick patterns, other indicators)
• Markets can break through levels, especially during high-impact news
BEST PRACTICES
1. Combine with Other Analysis: Use alongside trend indicators, volume, and price action patterns
2. Context Matters: Consider overall market trend and structure
3. Risk Management: Always use stop losses; don't rely solely on S/R levels
4. Market Conditions: More effective in liquid, actively traded markets
5. Backtesting: Test settings on your specific instrument and timeframe before live trading
TROUBLESHOOTING
Too Many Lines?
• Increase "Left Bars" and "Right Bars" values
• Decrease "Show Last N Bars" value
Too Few Lines?
• Decrease "Left Bars" and "Right Bars" values
• Increase "Show Last N Bars" value
Lines Not Appearing?
• Ensure sufficient price data is loaded on your chart
• Check that "Right Bars" have passed since the last swing point
• Verify indicator is properly loaded (refresh if needed)
TECHNICAL DETAILS
• Uses ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() functions for level detection
• Implements array-based line management for efficient rendering
• Automatic cleanup of outdated lines to maintain performance
• Overlay indicator - displays directly on price chart
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and risk assessment before making trading decisions.
========================================
中文使用指南
========================================
概述
本指標自動識別並顯示基於波段高點和低點的關鍵支撐阻力位。使用樞軸點檢測標記市場先前反應的重要價格水平，幫助交易者識別潛在的進出場點和關鍵決策區域。
主要功能
• 自動水平檢測：使用樞軸點分析識別波段高點（阻力）和波段低點（支撐）
• 動態線條管理：僅顯示指定回看期內的近期水平，保持圖表清晰
• 自動延伸線條：將支撐阻力水平向前投影，預測未來價格互動
• 顏色編碼：紅線表示阻力，綠線表示支撐，便於視覺識別
========================================
參數說明
========================================
左側K棒數（預設：10）
• 最小值：5根K棒
• 樞軸點左側的K棒數量
• 數值越高 = 水平越重要但訊號越少
• 數值越低 = 檢測更敏感但可能包含次要波動
右側K棒數（預設：10）
• 最小值：5根K棒
• 樞軸點右側的K棒數量
• 必須經過價格行為確認後才繪製水平
• 在確認延遲和訊號準確性之間取得平衡
顯示最近N根K棒內的點（預設：200）
• 最小值：10根K棒
• 僅顯示最近N根K棒內檢測到的支撐阻力水平
• 透過移除過時水平保持圖表清晰
• 根據您的交易時間框架和風格調整
線條延伸長度（預設：48）
• 最小值：1根K棒
• 支撐阻力線向前延伸的K棒數
• 幫助視覺化潛在的未來價格互動
• 較長延伸適合波段交易，較短適合當沖交易
========================================
使用方法
========================================
波段交易者
1. 使用預設設定（10/10）或增加至15/15以獲得更重要的水平
2. 將「顯示最近N根K棒」設為300-500以捕捉長期水平
3. 觀察價格接近這些水平時的反應
4. 結合成交量分析進行確認
當沖交易者
1. 考慮將左右側K棒減少至7-8以獲得更頻繁的訊號
2. 將「顯示最近N根K棒」設為100-150以專注於近期行情
3. 將「線條延伸長度」減少至20-30根K棒
4. 觀察日內在這些水平的反彈或突破
交易策略
反彈交易（均值回歸）
• 當價格接近綠色支撐線時做多
• 當價格接近紅色阻力線時做空
• 在支撐阻力水平之外設置止損
• 在區間或盤整市場中效果最佳
突破交易（趨勢跟隨）
• 等待價格突破阻力（看漲）或支撐（看跌）
• 以增加的成交量確認
• 先前的阻力成為新的支撐（反之亦然）
• 在趨勢市場中效果最佳
多時間框架分析
• 檢查更高時間框架的主要支撐阻力區域
• 使用較低時間框架進行精確的進出場時機
• 多個時間框架水平的匯合創造強大區域
========================================
重要注意事項
========================================
線條確認延遲
• 線條出現時會有等於「右側K棒數」參數的延遲
• 此延遲確保樞軸點被確認
• 實時水平檢測需要價格行為確認
圖表清晰度
• 最多可顯示500條線（TradingView限制）
• 如果圖表變得太雜亂，請調整「顯示最近N根K棒」
• 超出回看期的舊線會自動刪除
假訊號
• 並非所有支撐阻力水平都會守住
• 使用額外確認（成交量、K棒型態、其他指標）
• 市場可能突破水平，特別是在重大新聞期間
最佳實踐
1. 結合其他分析：與趨勢指標、成交量和價格行為型態一起使用
2. 背景很重要：考慮整體市場趨勢和結構
3. 風險管理：始終使用止損；不要僅依賴支撐阻力水平
4. 市場條件：在流動性高、活躍交易的市場中更有效
5. 回測：在實盤交易前，在您的特定商品和時間框架上測試設定
故障排除
線條太多？
• 增加「左側K棒數」和「右側K棒數」數值
• 減少「顯示最近N根K棒」數值
線條太少？
• 減少「左側K棒數」和「右側K棒數」數值
• 增加「顯示最近N根K棒」數值
線條未出現？
• 確保圖表上載入了足夠的價格數據
• 檢查自上次波動點以來是否已過「右側K棒數」
• 驗證指標是否正確載入（如需要請刷新）
技術細節
• 使用 ta.pivothigh() 和 ta.pivotlow() 函數進行水平檢測
• 實施基於陣列的線條管理以實現高效渲染
• 自動清理過時線條以保持性能
• 疊加指標 - 直接顯示在價格圖表上
免責聲明：本指標僅供教育和資訊目的。不構成財務建議。在做出交易決策前，請務必進行自己的研究和風險評估。
Tìm kiếm tập lệnh với "a股开盘前15分钟交易规则"
VMDM - Volume, Momentum & Divergence Master [BullByte]VMDM - Volume, Momentum and Divergence Master
Educational Multi-Layer Market Structure Analysis System
Multi-factor divergence engine that scores RSI momentum, volume pressure, and institutional footprints into one non-repainting confluence rating (0-100).
WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS
VMDM is an educational indicator designed to teach traders how to recognize high-probability reversal and continuation patterns by analyzing four independent market dimensions simultaneously. Instead of relying on a single indicator that may produce frequent false signals, VMDM creates a confluence-based scoring system that weights multiple confirmation factors, helping you understand which setups have stronger technical backing and which are lower quality.
This is NOT a trading system or signal generator. It is a learning tool that visualizes complex market structure concepts in an accessible format for both coders and non-coders.
THE PROBLEM IT SOLVES
Most traders face these common challenges:
Challenge 1 - Indicator Overload: Running RSI, volume analysis, and divergence detection separately creates chart clutter and conflicting signals. You waste time cross-referencing multiple windows trying to determine if all factors align.
Challenge 2 - False Divergences: Standard divergence indicators trigger on every minor pivot, creating noise. Many divergences fail because they lack supporting evidence from volume or market structure.
Challenge 3 - Missed Context: A bullish RSI divergence means nothing if it occurs during weak volume or in the middle of strong distribution. Context determines quality.
Challenge 4 - Repainting Confusion: Many divergence scripts repaint, showing perfect historical signals that never actually triggered in real-time, leading to false confidence.
Challenge 5 - Institutional Pattern Recognition: Absorption zones, stop hunts, and exhaustion patterns are taught in trading education but difficult to identify systematically without manual analysis.
VMDM addresses all five challenges by combining complementary analytical layers into one transparent, non-repainting, confluence-weighted system with visual clarity.
WHY THIS SPECIFIC COMBINATION - MASHUP JUSTIFICATION
This indicator is NOT a random mashup of popular indicators. Each of the four layers serves a specific analytical purpose and together they create a complete market structure assessment framework.
THE FOUR ANALYTICAL LAYERS
LAYER 1 - RSI MOMENTUM DIVERGENCE (Trend Exhaustion Detection)
Purpose: Identifies when price momentum is weakening before price itself reverses.
Why RSI: The Relative Strength Index measures momentum on a bounded 0-100 scale, making divergence detection mathematically consistent across all assets and timeframes. Unlike raw price oscillators, RSI normalizes momentum regardless of volatility regime.
How It Contributes: Divergence between price pivots and RSI pivots reveals early momentum exhaustion. A lower price low with a higher RSI low (bullish regular divergence) signals sellers are losing strength even as price makes new lows. This is the PRIMARY signal generator in VMDM.
Limitation If Used Alone: RSI divergence by itself produces many false signals because momentum can remain weak during continued trends. It needs confirmation from volume and structural evidence.
LAYER 2 - VOLUME PRESSURE ANALYSIS (Buying vs Selling Intensity)
Purpose: Quantifies whether the current bar's volume reflects buying pressure or selling pressure based on where price closed within the bar's range.
Methodology: Instead of just measuring volume size, VMDM calculates WHERE in the bar range the close occurred. A close near the high on high volume indicates strong buying absorption. A close near the low indicates selling pressure. The calculation accounts for wick size (wicks reduce pressure quality) and uses percentile ranking over a lookback period to normalize pressure strength on a 0-100 scale.
Formula Concept:
Buy Pressure = Volume × (Close - Low) / (High - Low) × Wick Quality Factor
Sell Pressure = Volume × (High - Close) / (High - Low) × Wick Quality Factor
Net Pressure = Buy Pressure - Sell Pressure
Pressure Strength = Percentile Rank of Net Pressure over lookback period
Why Percentile Ranking: Absolute volume varies by asset and session. Percentile ranking makes 85th percentile pressure on low-volume crypto comparable to 85th percentile pressure on high-volume forex.
How It Contributes: When a bullish divergence occurs at a pivot low AND pressure strength is above 60 (strong buying), this adds 25 confluence points. It confirms that the divergence is occurring during actual accumulation, not just weak selling.
Limitation If Used Alone: Pressure analysis shows current bar intensity but cannot identify trend exhaustion or reversal timing. High buying pressure can exist during a strong uptrend with no reversal imminent.
LAYER 3 - BEHAVIORAL FOOTPRINT PATTERNS (Volume Anomaly Detection)
CRITICAL DISCLAIMER: The terms "institutional footprint," "absorption," "stop hunt," and "exhaustion" used in this indicator are EDUCATIONAL LABELS for specific price and volume behavioral patterns. These patterns are detected through technical analysis of publicly available price, volume, and bar structure data. This indicator does NOT have access to actual institutional order flow, market maker data, broker stop-loss locations, or any non-public data source. These pattern names are used because they are common terminology in trading education to describe these technical behaviors. The analysis is interpretive and based on observable price action, not privileged information.
Purpose: Detect volume anomalies and price patterns that historically correlate with potential reversal zones or trend continuation failure.
Pattern Type 1 - Absorption (Labeled as "ACCUMULATION" or "DISTRIBUTION")
Detection Criteria: Volume is more than 2x the moving average AND bar range is less than 50 percent of the average bar range.
Interpretation: High volume compressed into a tight range suggests large participants are absorbing supply (accumulation) or distribution (distribution) without allowing price to move significantly. This often precedes directional moves once absorption completes.
Visual: Colored box zone highlighting the absorption area.
Pattern Type 2 - Stop Hunt (Labeled as "BULL HUNT" or "BEAR HUNT")
Detection Criteria: Price penetrates a recent 10-bar high or low by a small margin (0.2 percent), then closes back inside the range on above-average volume (1.5x+).
Interpretation: Price briefly spikes beyond recent structure (likely triggering stop losses placed just beyond obvious levels) then reverses. This is a classic false breakout pattern often seen before reversals.
Visual: Label at the wick extreme showing hunt direction.
Pattern Type 3 - Exhaustion (Labeled as "SELL EXHAUST" or "BUY EXHAUST")
Detection Criteria: Lower wick is more than 2.5x the body size with volume above 1.8x average and RSI below 35 (sell exhaustion), OR upper wick more than 2.5x body size with volume above 1.8x average and RSI above 65 (buy exhaustion).
Interpretation: Large wicks with high volume and extreme RSI suggest aggressive buying or selling was met with equally aggressive rejection. This exhaustion often marks short-term extremes.
Visual: Label showing exhaustion type.
How These Contribute: When a divergence forms at a pivot AND one of these behavioral patterns is active, the confluence score increases by 20 points. This confirms the divergence is occurring during structural anomaly activity, not just normal price flow.
Limitation If Used Alone: These patterns can occur mid-trend and do not indicate direction without momentum context. Absorption in a strong uptrend may just be continuation accumulation.
LAYER 4 - CONFLUENCE SCORING MATRIX (Quality Weighting System)
Purpose: Translate all detected conditions into a single 0-100 quality score so you can objectively compare setups.
Scoring Breakdown:
Divergence Present: +30 points (primary signal)
Pressure Confirmation: +25 points (volume supports direction)
Behavioral Footprint Active: +20 points (structural anomaly present)
RSI Extreme: +15 points (RSI below 30 or above 70 at pivot)
Volume Spike: +10 points (current volume above 1.5x average)
Maximum Possible Score: 100 points
Why These Weights: The weights reflect reliability hierarchy based on backtesting observation. Divergence is the core signal (30 points), but without volume confirmation (25 points) many fail. Behavioral patterns add meaningful context (20 points). RSI extremes and volume spikes are secondary confirmations (15 and 10 points).
Quality Tiers:
90-100: TEXTBOOK (all factors aligned)
75-89: HIGH QUALITY (strong confluence)
60-74: VALID (meets minimum threshold)
Below 60: DEVELOPING (not displayed unless threshold lowered)
How It Contributes: The confluence score allows you to filter noise. You can set your minimum quality threshold in settings. Higher thresholds (75+) show fewer but higher-quality patterns. Lower thresholds (50-60) show more patterns but include lower-confidence setups. This teaches you to distinguish strong setups from weak ones.
Limitation: Confluence scoring is historical observation-based, not predictive guarantee. A 95-point setup can still fail. The score represents technical alignment, not future certainty.
WHY THIS COMBINATION WORKS TOGETHER
Each layer addresses a limitation in the others:
RSI Divergence identifies WHEN momentum is exhausting (timing)
Volume Pressure confirms WHETHER the exhaustion is accompanied by opposite-side accumulation (confirmation)
Behavioral Footprint shows IF structural anomalies support the reversal hypothesis (context)
Confluence Scoring weights ALL factors into an objective quality metric (filtering)
Using only RSI divergence gives you timing without confirmation. Using only volume pressure gives you intensity without directional context. Using only pattern detection gives you anomalies without trend exhaustion context. Using all four together creates a complete analytical framework where each layer compensates for the others' weaknesses.
This is not a mashup for the sake of combining indicators. It is a structured analytical system where each component has a defined role in a multi-dimensional market assessment process.
HOW TO READ THE INDICATOR - VISUAL ELEMENTS GUIDE
VMDM displays up to five visual layer types. You can enable or disable each layer independently in settings under "Visual Layers."
VISUAL LAYER 1 - MARKET STRUCTURE (Pivot Points and Lines)
What You See:
Small labels at swing highs and lows marked "PH" (Pivot High) and "PL" (Pivot Low) with horizontal dashed lines extending right from each pivot.
What It Means:
These are CONFIRMED pivots, not real-time. A pivot low appears AFTER the required right-side confirmation bars pass (default 3 bars). This creates a delay but prevents repainting. The pivot only appears once it is mathematically confirmed.
The horizontal lines represent support (from pivot lows) and resistance (from pivot highs) levels where price previously found significant rejection.
Color Coding:
Green label and line: Pivot Low (potential support)
Red label and line: Pivot High (potential resistance)
How To Use:
These pivots are the foundation for divergence detection. Divergence is only calculated between confirmed pivots, ensuring all signals are non-repainting. The lines help you see historical structure levels.
VISUAL LAYER 2 - PRESSURE ZONES (Background Color)
What You See:
Subtle background color shading on bars - light green or light red tint.
What It Means:
This visualizes volume pressure strength in real-time.
Color Coding:
Light Green Background: Pressure Strength above 70 (strong buying pressure - price closing near highs on volume)
Light Red Background: Pressure Strength below 30 (strong selling pressure - price closing near lows on volume)
No Color: Neutral pressure (pressure between 30-70)
How To Use:
When a bullish divergence pattern appears during green pressure zones, it suggests the divergence is forming during accumulation. When a bearish divergence appears during red zones, distribution is occurring. Pressure zones help you filter divergences - those forming in supportive pressure environments have higher probability.
VISUAL LAYER 3 - DIVERGENCE LINES (Dotted Connectors)
What You See:
Dotted lines connecting two pivot points (either two pivot lows or two pivot highs).
What It Means:
A divergence has been detected between those two pivots. The line connects the price pivots where RSI showed opposite behavior.
Color Coding:
Bright Green Line: Bullish divergence (regular or hidden)
Bright Red Line: Bearish divergence (regular or hidden)
How To Use:
The divergence line appears ONLY after the second pivot is confirmed (delayed by right-side confirmation bars). This is intentional to prevent repainting. When you see the line appear, it means:
For Bullish Regular Divergence:
Price made a lower low (second pivot lower than first)
RSI made a higher low (RSI at second pivot higher than first)
Interpretation: Downtrend losing momentum
For Bullish Hidden Divergence:
Price made a higher low (second pivot higher than first)
RSI made a lower low (RSI at second pivot lower than first)
Interpretation: Uptrend continuation likely (pullback within uptrend)
For Bearish Regular Divergence:
Price made a higher high (second pivot higher than first)
RSI made a lower high (RSI at second pivot lower than first)
Interpretation: Uptrend losing momentum
For Bearish Hidden Divergence:
Price made a lower high (second pivot lower than first)
RSI made a higher high (RSI at second pivot higher than first)
Interpretation: Downtrend continuation likely (bounce within downtrend)
If "Show Consolidated Analysis Label" is disabled, a small label will appear on the divergence line showing the divergence type abbreviation.
VISUAL LAYER 4 - BEHAVIORAL FOOTPRINT MARKERS
What You See:
Boxes, labels, and markers at specific bars showing pattern detection.
ABSORPTION ZONES (Boxes):
Colored rectangular boxes spanning one or more bars.
Purple Box: Accumulation absorption zone (high volume, tight range, bullish close)
Red Box: Distribution absorption zone (high volume, tight range, bearish close)
If absorption continues for multiple consecutive bars, the box extends and a counter appears in the label showing how many bars the absorption lasted.
What It Means: Large volume is being absorbed without significant price movement. This often precedes directional breakouts once the absorption phase completes.
STOP HUNT MARKERS (Labels):
Small labels below or above wicks labeled "BULL HUNT" or "BEAR HUNT" (may show bar count if consecutive).
What It Means:
BULL HUNT : Price spiked below recent lows then reversed back up on volume - likely triggered sell stops before reversing
BEAR HUNT : Price spiked above recent highs then reversed back down on volume - likely triggered buy stops before reversing
EXHAUSTION MARKERS (Labels):
Labels showing "SELL EXHAUST" or "BUY EXHAUST."
What It Means:
SELL EXHAUST : Large lower wick with high volume and low RSI - aggressive selling met with strong rejection
BUY EXHAUST : Large upper wick with high volume and high RSI - aggressive buying met with strong rejection
How To Use:
These markers help you identify WHERE structural anomalies occurred. When a divergence signal appears AT THE SAME TIME as one of these patterns, the confluence score increases. You are looking for alignment - divergence + behavioral pattern + pressure confirmation = high-quality setup.
VISUAL LAYER 5 - CONSOLIDATED ANALYSIS LABEL (Main Pattern Signal)
What You See:
A large label appearing at pivot points (or in real-time mode, at current bar) containing full pattern analysis.
Label Appearance:
Depending on your "Use Compact Label Format" setting:
COMPACT MODE (Single Line):
Example: "BULLISH REGULAR | Q:HIGH QUALITY C:82"
Breakdown:
BULLISH REGULAR: Divergence type detected
Q:HIGH QUALITY: Pattern quality tier
C:82: Confluence score (82 out of 100)
FULL MODE (Multi-Line Detailed):
Example:
PATTERN DETECTED
-------------------
BULLISH REGULAR
Quality: HIGH QUALITY
Price: Lower Low
Momentum: Higher Low
Signal: Weakening Downtrend
CONFLUENCE: 82/100
-------------------
Divergence: 30
Pressure: 25
Institutional: 20
RSI Extreme: 0
Volume: 10
Breakdown:
Top section: Pattern type and quality
Middle section: Divergence explanation (what price did vs what RSI did)
Bottom section: Confluence score with itemized breakdown showing which factors contributed
Label Position:
In Confirmed modes: Label appears AT the pivot point (delayed by confirmation bars)
In Real-time mode: Label appears at current bar as conditions develop
Label Color:
Gold: Textbook quality (90+ confluence)
Green: High quality (75-89 confluence)
Blue: Valid quality (60-74 confluence)
How To Use:
This is your primary decision-making label. When it appears:
Check the divergence type (regular divergences are reversal signals, hidden divergences are continuation signals)
Review the quality tier (textbook and high quality have better historical win rates)
Examine the confluence breakdown to see which factors are present and which are missing
Look at the chart context (trend, support/resistance, timeframe)
Use this information to assess whether the setup aligns with your strategy
The label does NOT tell you to buy or sell. It tells you a technical pattern has formed and provides the quality assessment. Your trading decision must incorporate risk management, market context, and your strategy rules.
UNDERSTANDING THE THREE DETECTION MODES
VMDM offers three signal detection modes in settings to accommodate different trading styles and learning objectives.
MODE 1: "Confluence Only (Real-Time)"
How It Works: Displays signals AS THEY DEVELOP on the current bar without waiting for pivot confirmation. The system calculates confluence score from pressure, volume, RSI extremes, and behavioral patterns. Divergence signals are NOT required in this mode.
Delay: ZERO - signals appear immediately.
Use Case: Real-time scanning for high-confluence zones without divergence requirement. Useful for intraday traders who want immediate alerts when multiple factors align.
Tradeoff: More frequent signals but includes setups without confirmed divergence. Higher false signal rate. Signals can change as the bar develops (not repainting in historical bars, but current bar updates).
Visual Behavior: Labels appear at the current bar. No divergence lines unless divergence happens to be present.
MODE 2: "Divergence + Confluence (Confirmed)" - DEFAULT RECOMMENDED
How It Works: Full system engagement. Signals appear ONLY when:
A pivot is confirmed (requires right-side confirmation bars to pass)
Divergence is detected between current pivot and previous pivot
Total confluence score meets or exceeds your minimum threshold
Delay: Equal to your "Pivot Right Bars" setting (default 3 bars). This means signals appear 3 bars AFTER the actual pivot formed.
Use Case: Highest-quality, non-repainting signals for swing traders and learners who want to study confirmed pattern completion.
Tradeoff: Delayed signals. You will not receive the signal until confirmation occurs. In fast-moving markets, price may have already moved significantly by the time the signal appears.
Visual Behavior: Labels appear at the historical pivot location (in the past). Divergence lines connect the two pivots. This is the most educational mode because it shows completed, confirmed patterns.
Non-Repainting Guarantee: Yes. Once a signal appears, it never disappears or changes.
MODE 3: "Divergence + Confluence (Relaxed)"
How It Works: Same as Confirmed mode but with adaptive thresholds. If confluence is very high (10 points above threshold), the signal may appear even if some factors are weak. If divergence is present but confluence is slightly below threshold (within 10 points), it may still appear.
Delay: Same as Confirmed mode (right-side confirmation bars).
Use Case: Slightly more signals than Confirmed mode for traders willing to accept near-threshold setups.
Tradeoff: More signals but lower average quality than Confirmed mode.
Visual Behavior: Same as Confirmed mode.
DASHBOARD GUIDE - READING THE METRICS
The dashboard appears in the corner of your chart (position selectable in settings) and provides real-time market state analysis.
You can choose between four dashboard detail levels in settings: Off, Compact, Optimized (default), Full.
DASHBOARD ROW EXPLANATIONS
ROW 1 - Header Information
Left: Current symbol and timeframe
Center: "VMDM "
Right: Version number
ROW 2 - Mode and Delay
Shows which detection mode you are using and the signal delay.
Example: "CONFIRMED | Delay: 3 bars"
This reminds you that signals in confirmed mode appear 3 bars after the pivot forms.
ROW 3 - Market Regime
Format: "TREND UP HV" or "RANGING NV"
First Part - Trend State:
TREND UP: 20 EMA above 50 EMA with strong separation
TREND DOWN: 20 EMA below 50 EMA with strong separation
RANGING: EMAs close together, low trend strength
TRANSITION: Between trending and ranging states
Second Part - Volatility State:
HV: High Volatility (current ATR more than 1.3x the 50-bar average ATR)
NV: Normal Volatility (current ATR between 0.7x and 1.3x average)
LV: Low Volatility (current ATR less than 0.7x average)
Third Column: Volatility ratio (example: "1.45x" means current ATR is 1.45 times normal)
How To Use: Regime context helps you interpret signals. Reversal divergences are more reliable in ranging or transitional regimes. Continuation divergences (hidden) are more reliable in trending regimes. High volatility means wider stops may be needed.
ROW 4 - Pressure
Shows current volume pressure state.
Format: "BUYING | ██████████░░░░░░░░░"
States:
BUYING : Pressure strength above 60 (closes near highs)
SELLING : Pressure strength below 40 (closes near lows)
NEUTRAL : Pressure strength between 40-60
Bar Visualization: Each block represents 10 percentile points. A full bar (10 filled blocks) = 100th percentile pressure.
Color: Green for buying, red for selling, gray for neutral.
How To Use: When pressure aligns with divergence direction (bullish divergence during buying pressure), confluence is stronger.
ROW 5 - Volume and RSI
Format: "1.8x | RSI 68 | OB"
First Value: Current volume ratio (1.8x = volume is 1.8 times the moving average)
Second Value: Current RSI reading
Third Value: RSI state
OB: Overbought (RSI above 70)
OS: Oversold (RSI below 30)
Blank: Neutral RSI
How To Use: Volume spikes (above 1.5x) during divergence formation add confluence. RSI extremes at pivots add confluence.
ROW 6 - Behavioral Footprint
Format: "BULL HUNT | 2 bars"
Shows the most recent behavioral pattern detected and how long ago.
States:
ACCUMULATION / DISTRIBUTION: Absorption detected
BULL HUNT / BEAR HUNT: Stop hunt detected
SELL EXHAUST / BUY EXHAUST: Exhaustion detected
SCANNING: No recent pattern
NOW: Pattern is active on current bar
How To Use: When footprint activity is recent (within 50 bars) or active now, it adds context to divergence signals forming in that area.
ROW 7 - Current Pattern
Shows the divergence type currently detected (if any).
Examples: "BULLISH REGULAR", "BEARISH HIDDEN", "Scanning..."
Quality: Shows pattern quality (TEXTBOOK, HIGH QUALITY, VALID)
How To Use: This tells you what type of signal is active. Regular divergences are reversal setups. Hidden divergences are continuation setups.
ROW 8 - Session Summary
Format: "14 events | A3 H8 E3"
First Value: Total institutional events this session
Breakdown:
A: Absorption events
H: Stop hunt events
E: Exhaustion events
How To Use: High event counts suggest an active, volatile session with frequent structural anomalies. Low counts suggest quiet, orderly price action.
ROW 9 - Confluence Score (Optimized/Full mode only)
Format: "78/100 | ████████░░"
Shows current real-time confluence score even if no pattern is confirmed yet.
How To Use: Watch this in real-time to see how close you are to pattern formation. When it exceeds your threshold and divergence forms, a signal will appear (after confirmation delay).
ROW 10 - Patterns Studied (Optimized/Full mode only)
Format: "47 patterns | 12 bars ago"
First Value: Total confirmed patterns detected since chart loaded
Second Value: How many bars since the last confirmed pattern appeared
How To Use: Helps you understand pattern frequency on your selected symbol and timeframe. If many bars have passed since last pattern, market may be trending without reversal opportunities.
ROW 11 - Bull/Bear Ratio (Optimized/Full mode only)
Format: "28:19 | BULL"
Shows count of bullish vs bearish patterns detected.
Balance:
BULL: More bullish patterns detected (suggests market has had more bullish reversals/continuations)
BEAR: More bearish patterns detected
BAL: Equal counts
How To Use: Extreme imbalances can indicate directional bias in the studied period. A heavily bullish ratio in a downtrend might suggest frequent failed rallies (bearish continuation). Context matters.
ROW 12 - Volume Ratio Detail (Optimized/Full mode only)
Shows current volume vs average volume in absolute terms.
Example: "1.4x | 45230 / 32300"
How To Use: Confirms whether current activity is above or below normal.
ROW 13 - Last Institutional Event (Full mode only)
Shows the most recent institutional pattern type and how many bars ago it occurred.
Example: "DISTRIBUTION | 23 bars"
How To Use: Tracks recency of last anomaly for context.
SETTINGS GUIDE - EVERY PARAMETER EXPLAINED
PERFORMANCE SECTION
Enable All Visuals (Master Toggle)
Default: ON
What It Does: Master kill switch for ALL visual elements (labels, lines, boxes, background colors, dashboard). When OFF, only plot outputs remain (invisible unless you open data window).
When To Change: Turn OFF on mobile devices, 1-second charts, or slow computers to improve performance. You can still receive alerts even with visuals disabled.
Impact: Dramatic performance improvement when OFF, but you lose all visual feedback.
Maximum Object History
Default: 50 | Range: 10-100
What It Does: Limits how many of each object type (labels, lines, boxes) are kept in memory. Older objects beyond this limit are deleted.
When To Change: Lower to 20-30 on fast timeframes (1-minute charts) to prevent slowdown. Increase to 100 on daily charts if you want more historical pattern visibility.
Impact: Lower values = better performance but less historical visibility. Higher values = more history visible but potential slowdown on fast timeframes.
Alert Cooldown (Bars)
Default: 5 | Range: 1-50
What It Does: Minimum number of bars that must pass before another alert of the same type can fire. Prevents alert spam when multiple patterns form in quick succession.
When To Change: Increase to 20+ on 1-minute charts to reduce noise. Decrease to 1-2 on daily charts if you want every pattern alerted.
Impact: Higher cooldown = fewer alerts. Lower cooldown = more alerts.
USER EXPERIENCE SECTION
Show Enhanced Tooltips
Default: ON
What It Does: Enables detailed hover-over tooltips on labels and visual elements.
When To Change: Turn OFF if you encounter Pine Script compilation errors related to tooltip arguments (rare, platform-specific issue).
Impact: Minimal. Just adds helpful hover text.
MARKET STRUCTURE DETECTION SECTION
Pivot Left Bars
Default: 3 | Range: 2-10
What It Does: Number of bars to the LEFT of the center bar that must be higher (for pivot low) or lower (for pivot high) than the center bar for a pivot to be valid.
Example: With value 3, a pivot low requires the center bar's low to be lower than the 3 bars to its left.
When To Change:
Increase to 5-7 on noisy timeframes (1-minute charts) to filter insignificant pivots
Decrease to 2 on slow timeframes (daily charts) to catch more pivots
Impact: Higher values = fewer, more significant pivots = fewer signals. Lower values = more frequent pivots = more signals but more noise.
Pivot Right Bars
Default: 3 | Range: 2-10
What It Does: Number of bars to the RIGHT of the center bar that must pass for confirmation. This creates the non-repainting delay.
Example: With value 3, a pivot is confirmed 3 bars AFTER it forms.
When To Change:
Increase to 5-7 for slower, more confirmed signals (better for swing trading)
Decrease to 2 for faster signals (better for intraday, but still non-repainting)
Impact: Higher values = longer delay but more reliable confirmation. Lower values = faster signals but less confirmation. This setting directly controls your signal delay in Confirmed and Relaxed modes.
Minimum Confluence Score
Default: 60 | Range: 40-95
What It Does: The threshold score required for a pattern to be displayed. Patterns with confluence scores below this threshold are not shown.
When To Change:
Increase to 75+ if you only want high-quality textbook setups (fewer signals)
Decrease to 50-55 if you want to see more developing patterns (more signals, lower average quality)
Impact: This is your primary signal filter. Higher threshold = fewer, higher-quality signals. Lower threshold = more signals but includes weaker setups. Recommended starting point is 60-65.
TECHNICAL PERIODS SECTION
RSI Period
Default: 14 | Range: 5-50
What It Does: Lookback period for RSI calculation.
When To Change:
Decrease to 9-10 for faster, more sensitive RSI that detects shorter-term momentum changes
Increase to 21-28 for slower, smoother RSI that filters noise
Impact: Lower values make RSI more volatile (more frequent extremes and divergences). Higher values make RSI smoother (fewer but more significant divergences). 14 is industry standard.
Volume Moving Average Period
Default: 20 | Range: 10-200
What It Does: Lookback period for calculating average volume. Current volume is compared to this average to determine volume ratio.
When To Change:
Decrease to 10-14 for shorter-term volume comparison (more sensitive to recent volume changes)
Increase to 50-100 for longer-term volume comparison (smoother, less sensitive)
Impact: Lower values make volume ratio more volatile. Higher values make it more stable. 20 is standard.
ATR Period
Default: 14 | Range: 5-100
What It Does: Lookback period for Average True Range calculation used for volatility measurement and label positioning.
When To Change: Rarely needs adjustment. Use 7-10 for faster volatility response, 21-28 for slower.
Impact: Affects volatility ratio calculation and visual label spacing. Minimal impact on signals.
Pressure Percentile Lookback
Default: 50 | Range: 10-300
What It Does: Lookback period for calculating volume pressure percentile ranking. Your current pressure is ranked against the pressure of the last X bars.
When To Change:
Decrease to 20-30 for shorter-term pressure context (more responsive to recent changes)
Increase to 100-200 for longer-term pressure context (smoother rankings)
Impact: Lower values make pressure strength more sensitive to recent bars. Higher values provide more stable, long-term pressure assessment. Capped at 300 for performance reasons.
SIGNAL DETECTION SECTION
Signal Detection Mode
Default: "Divergence + Confluence (Confirmed)"
Options:
Confluence Only (Real-time)
Divergence + Confluence (Confirmed)
Divergence + Confluence (Relaxed)
What It Does: Selects which detection logic mode to use (see "Understanding The Three Detection Modes" section above).
When To Change: Use Confirmed for learning and non-repainting signals. Use Real-time for live scanning without divergence requirement. Use Relaxed for slightly more signals than Confirmed.
Impact: Fundamentally changes when and how signals appear.
VISUAL LAYERS SECTION
All toggles default to ON. Each controls visibility of one visual layer:
Show Market Structure: Pivot markers and support/resistance lines
Show Pressure Zones: Background color shading
Show Divergence Lines: Dotted lines connecting pivots
Show Institutional Footprint Markers: Absorption boxes, hunt labels, exhaustion labels
Show Consolidated Analysis Label: Main pattern detection label
Use Compact Label Format
Default: OFF
What It Does: Switches consolidated label between single-line compact format and multi-line detailed format.
When To Change: Turn ON if you find full labels too large or distracting.
Impact: Visual clarity vs. information density tradeoff.
DASHBOARD SECTION
Dashboard Mode
Default: "Optimized"
Options: Off, Compact, Optimized, Full
What It Does: Controls how much information the dashboard displays.
Off: No dashboard
Compact: 8 rows (essential metrics only)
Optimized: 12 rows (recommended balance)
Full: 13 rows (every available metric)
Dashboard Position
Default: "Top Right"
Options: Top Right, Top Left, Bottom Right, Bottom Left
What It Does: Screen corner where dashboard appears.
HOW TO USE VMDM - PRACTICAL WORKFLOW
STEP 1 - INITIAL SETUP
Add VMDM to your chart
Select your detection mode (Confirmed recommended for learning)
Set your minimum confluence score (start with 60-65)
Adjust pivot parameters if needed (default 3/3 is good for most timeframes)
Enable the visual layers you want to see
STEP 2 - CHART ANALYSIS
Let the indicator load and analyze historical data
Review the patterns that appear historically
Examine the confluence scores - notice which patterns had higher scores
Observe which patterns occurred during supportive pressure zones
Notice the divergence line connections - understand what price vs RSI did
STEP 3 - PATTERN RECOGNITION LEARNING
When a consolidated analysis label appears:
Read the divergence type (regular or hidden, bullish or bearish)
Check the quality tier (textbook, high quality, or valid)
Review the confluence breakdown - which factors contributed
Look at the chart context - where is price relative to structure, trend, etc.
Observe the behavioral footprint markers nearby - do they support the pattern
STEP 4 - REAL-TIME MONITORING
Watch the dashboard for real-time regime and pressure state
Monitor the current confluence score in the dashboard
When it approaches your threshold, be alert for potential pattern formation
When a new pattern appears (after confirmation delay), evaluate it using the workflow above
Use your trading strategy rules to decide if the setup aligns with your criteria
STEP 5 - POST-PATTERN OBSERVATION
After a pattern appears:
Mark the level on your chart
Observe what price does after the pattern completes
Did price respect the reversal/continuation signal
What was the confluence score of patterns that worked vs. those that failed
Learn which quality tiers and confluence levels produce better results on your specific symbol and timeframe
RECOMMENDED TIMEFRAMES AND ASSET CLASSES
VMDM is timeframe-agnostic and works on any asset with volume data. However, optimal performance varies:
BEST TIMEFRAMES
15-Minute to 1-Hour: Ideal balance of signal frequency and reliability. Pivot confirmation delay is acceptable. Sufficient volume data for pressure analysis.
4-Hour to Daily: Excellent for swing trading. Very high-quality signals. Lower frequency but higher significance. Recommended for learning because patterns are clearer.
1-Minute to 5-Minute: Works but requires adjustment. Increase pivot bars to 5-7 for filtering. Decrease max object history to 30 for performance. Expect more noise.
Weekly/Monthly: Works but very infrequent signals. Increase confluence threshold to 70+ to ensure only major patterns appear.
BEST ASSET CLASSES
Forex Majors: Excellent volume data and clear trends. Pressure analysis works well.
Crypto (Major Pairs): Good volume data. High volatility makes divergences more pronounced. Works very well.
Stock Indices (SPY, QQQ, etc.): Excellent. Clean price action and reliable volume.
Individual Stocks: Works well on high-volume stocks. Low-volume stocks may produce unreliable pressure readings.
Commodities (Gold, Oil, etc.): Works well. Clear trends and reactions.
WHAT THIS INDICATOR CANNOT DO - LIMITATIONS
LIMITATION 1 - It Does Not Predict The Future
VMDM identifies when technical conditions align historically associated with potential reversals or continuations. It does not predict what will happen next. A textbook 95-confluence pattern can still fail if fundamental events, news, or larger timeframe structure override the setup.
LIMITATION 2 - Confirmation Delay Means You Miss Early Entry
In Confirmed and Relaxed modes, the non-repainting design means you receive signals AFTER the pivot is confirmed. Price may have already moved significantly by the time you receive the signal. This is the tradeoff for non-repainting reliability. You can use Real-time mode for faster signals but sacrifice divergence confirmation.
LIMITATION 3 - It Does Not Tell You Position Sizing or Risk Management
VMDM provides technical pattern analysis. It does not calculate stop loss levels, take profit targets, or position sizing. You must apply your own risk management rules. Never risk more than you can afford to lose based on a technical signal.
LIMITATION 4 - Volume Pressure Analysis Requires Reliable Volume Data
On assets with thin volume or unreliable volume reporting, pressure analysis may be inaccurate. Stick to major liquid assets with consistent volume data.
LIMITATION 5 - It Cannot Detect Fundamental Events
VMDM is purely technical. It cannot predict earnings reports, central bank decisions, geopolitical events, or other fundamental catalysts that can override technical patterns.
LIMITATION 6 - Divergence Requires Two Pivots
The indicator cannot detect divergence until at least two pivots of the same type have formed. In strong trends without pullbacks, you may go long periods without signals.
LIMITATION 7 - Institutional Pattern Names Are Interpretive
The behavioral footprint patterns are named using common trading education terminology, but they are detected through technical analysis, not actual institutional data access. The patterns are interpretations based on price and volume behavior.
CONCEPT FOUNDATION - WHY THIS APPROACH WORKS
MARKET PRINCIPLE 1 - Momentum Divergence Precedes Price Reversal
Price is the final output of market forces, but momentum (the rate of change in those forces) shifts first. When price makes a new low but the momentum behind that move is weaker (higher RSI low), it signals that sellers are losing strength even though they temporarily pushed price lower. This precedes reversal. This is a fundamental principle in technical analysis taught by Charles Dow, widely observed in market behavior.
MARKET PRINCIPLE 2 - Volume Reveals Conviction
Price can move on low volume (low conviction) or high volume (high conviction). When price makes a new low on declining volume while RSI shows improving momentum, it suggests the new low is not confirmed by participant conviction. Adding volume pressure analysis to momentum divergence adds a confirmation layer that filters false divergences.
MARKET PRINCIPLE 3 - Anomalies Mark Structural Extremes
When volume spikes significantly but range contracts (absorption), or when price spikes beyond structure then reverses (stop hunt), or when aggressive moves are met with large-wick rejection (exhaustion), these anomalies often mark short-term extremes. Combining these structural observations with momentum analysis creates context.
MARKET PRINCIPLE 4 - Confluence Improves Probability
No single technical factor is reliable in isolation. RSI divergence alone fails frequently. Volume analysis alone cannot time entries. Combining multiple independent factors into a weighted system increases the probability that observed patterns have structural significance rather than random noise.
THE EDUCATIONAL VALUE
By visualizing all four layers simultaneously and breaking down the confluence scoring transparently, VMDM teaches you to think in terms of multi-dimensional analysis rather than single-indicator reliance. Over time, you will learn to recognize these patterns manually and understand which combinations produce better results on your traded assets.
INSTITUTIONAL TERMINOLOGY - IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION
This indicator uses the following terms that are common in trading education:
Institutional Footprint
Absorption (Accumulation / Distribution)
Stop Hunt
Exhaustion
CRITICAL DISCLAIMER:
These terms are EDUCATIONAL LABELS for specific price action and volume behavior patterns detected through technical analysis of publicly available chart data (open, high, low, close, volume). This indicator does NOT have access to:
Actual institutional order flow or order book data
Market maker positions or intentions
Broker stop-loss databases
Non-public trading data
Proprietary institutional information
The patterns labeled as "institutional footprint" are interpretations based on observable price and volume behavior that educational trading literature often associates with potential large-participant activity. The detection is algorithmic pattern recognition, not privileged data access.
When this indicator identifies "absorption," it means it detected high volume within a small range - a condition that MAY indicate large orders being filled but is not confirmation of actual institutional participation.
When it identifies a "stop hunt," it means price briefly penetrated a structural level then reversed - a pattern that MAY have triggered stop losses but is not confirmation that stops were specifically targeted.
When it identifies "exhaustion," it means high volume with large rejection wicks - a pattern that MAY indicate aggressive participation meeting strong opposition but is not confirmation of institutional involvement.
These are technical analysis interpretations, not factual statements about market participant identity or intent.
DISCLAIMER AND RISK WARNING
EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY
This indicator is designed as an educational tool to help traders learn to recognize technical patterns, understand multi-factor analysis, and practice systematic market observation. It is NOT a trading system, signal service, or financial advice.
NO PERFORMANCE GUARANTEE
Past pattern behavior does not guarantee future results. A pattern that historically preceded price movement in one direction may fail in the future due to changing market conditions, fundamental events, or random variance. Confluence scores reflect historical technical alignment, not future certainty.
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Trading financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss. You can lose more than your initial investment. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Always use proper risk management including stop losses, position sizing, and portfolio diversification.
NO PREDICTIVE CLAIMS
This indicator does NOT predict future price movement. It identifies when technical conditions align in patterns that historically have been associated with potential reversals or continuations. Market behavior is probabilistic, not deterministic.
BACKTESTING LIMITATIONS
If you backtest trading strategies using this indicator, ensure you account for:
Realistic commission costs
Realistic slippage (difference between signal price and actual fill price)
Sufficient sample size (minimum 100 trades for statistical relevance)
Reasonable position sizing (risking no more than 1-2 percent of account per trade)
The confirmation delay inherent in the indicator (you cannot enter at the exact pivot in Confirmed mode)
Backtests that do not account for these factors will produce unrealistic results.
AUTHOR LIABILITY
The author (BullByte) is not responsible for any trading losses incurred using this indicator. By using this indicator, you acknowledge that all trading decisions are your sole responsibility and that you understand the risks involved.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Nothing in this indicator, its code, its description, or its visual outputs constitutes financial, investment, or trading advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Q: Why do signals appear in the past, not at the current bar
A: In Confirmed and Relaxed modes, signals appear at confirmed pivots, which requires waiting for right-side confirmation bars (default 3). This creates a delay but prevents repainting. Use Real-time mode if you want current-bar signals without pivot confirmation.
Q: Can I use this for automated trading
A: You can create alert-based automation, but understand that Confirmed mode signals appear AFTER the pivot with delay, so your entry will not be at the pivot price. Real-time mode signals can change as the current bar develops. Automation requires careful consideration of these factors.
Q: How do I know which confluence score to use
A: Start with 60. Observe which patterns work on your symbol/timeframe. If too many false signals, increase to 70-75. If too few signals, decrease to 55. Quality vs. quantity tradeoff.
Q: Do regular divergences mean I should enter a reversal trade immediately
A: No. Regular divergences indicate momentum exhaustion, which is a WARNING sign that trend may reverse, not a confirmation that it will. Use confluence score, market context, support/resistance, and your strategy rules to make entry decisions. Many divergences fail.
Q: What's the difference between regular and hidden divergence
A: Regular divergence = price and momentum move in opposite directions at extremes = potential reversal signal. Hidden divergence = price and momentum move in opposite directions during pullbacks = potential continuation signal. Hidden divergence suggests the pullback is just a correction within the larger trend.
Q: Why does the pressure zone color sometimes conflict with the divergence direction
A: Pressure is real-time current bar analysis. Divergence is confirmed pivot analysis from the past. They measure different things at different times. A bullish divergence confirmed 3 bars ago might appear during current selling pressure. This is normal.
Q: Can I use this on stocks without volume data
A: No. Volume is required for pressure analysis and behavioral pattern detection. Use only on assets with reliable volume reporting.
Q: How often should I expect signals
A: Depends on timeframe and settings. Daily charts might produce 5-10 signals per month. 1-hour charts might produce 20-30. 15-minute charts might produce 50-100. Adjust confluence threshold to control frequency.
Q: Can I modify the code
A: Yes, this is open source. You can modify for personal use. If you publish a modified version, please credit the original and ensure your publication meets TradingView guidelines.
Q: What if I disagree with a pattern's confluence score
A: The scoring weights are based on general observations and may not suit your specific strategy or asset. You can modify the code to adjust weights if you have data-driven reasons to do so.
Final Notes
VMDM - Volume, Momentum and Divergence Master is an educational multi-layer market analysis system designed to teach systematic pattern recognition through transparent, confluence-weighted signal detection. By combining RSI momentum divergence, volume pressure quantification, behavioral footprint pattern recognition, and quality scoring into a unified framework, it provides a comprehensive learning environment for understanding market structure.
Use this tool to develop your analytical skills, understand how multiple technical factors interact, and learn to distinguish high-quality setups from noise. Remember that technical analysis is probabilistic, not predictive. No indicator replaces proper education, risk management, and trading discipline.
Trade responsibly. Learn continuously. Risk only what you can afford to lose.
-BullByte
Advanced ICC Multi-Timeframe 1.0Advanced ICC Multi-Timeframe Trading System
A comprehensive implementation and interpretation of the Indication, Correction, Continuation (ICC) trading methodology made popular by Trades by Sci, enhanced with advanced multi-timeframe analysis and automation features.
⚠️ CRITICAL TRADING WARNINGS:
DO NOT blindly follow BUY/SELL signals from this indicator
This indicator shows potential entry points but YOU must validate each trade
PAPER TRADE EXTENSIVELY before risking real capital
BACKTEST THOROUGHLY on your chosen instruments and timeframes
The ICC methodology requires understanding and discretion - automated signals are guidance only
This tool aids analysis but does not replace proper trade planning, risk management, or trader judgment
⚠️ Important Disclaimers:
This indicator is not endorsed by or affiliated with Trades by Sci
This is an early implementation and interpretation of the ICC methodology
May not work exactly as Trades by Sci executes his trades and entries
Requires further debugging, backtesting, and real-world validation
Completely free to use - no purchase required
I'm just one person obsessed with this method and wanted some better visualization of the chart/entries
About ICC:
The ICC method identifies complete market cycles through three phases: Indication (breakout), Correction (pullback), and Continuation (entry). This indicator automates the identification of these phases and adds powerful features for modern traders.
Key Features:
Multi-Timeframe Capabilities:
Automatic timeframe detection with optimized settings for 5m, 15m, 30m, 1H, 4H, and Daily charts
Higher timeframe overlay to view HTF ICC levels on lower timeframe charts for precise entry timing
Smart defaults that adjust swing length and consolidation detection based on your timeframe
Advanced Phase Tracking:
Complete ICC cycle tracking: Indication, Correction, Consolidation, Continuation, and No Setup phases
Live structure detection shows potential peaks/troughs before full confirmation
Intelligent invalidation logic detects failed setups when market structure reverses
Dynamic phase backgrounds for instant visual confirmation
Three Types of Entry Signals:
Traditional Entries - Price crosses back through the original indication level (strongest signals)
"BUY" (green) / "SELL" (red)
Breakout Entries - Price breaks out of consolidation range in the same direction
"BUY" (green) / "SELL" (red)
Reversal Entries (Optional, can be toggled off) - Price breaks consolidation in opposite direction, indicating failed setup
"⚠ BUY" (yellow) / "⚠ SELL" (orange)
More aggressive, counter-trend signals
Can be disabled for more conservative trading
Professional Features:
Volatility-based support/resistance zones (ATR-adjusted) that adapt to market conditions
Historical zone tracking (0-3 configurable) with visual hierarchy
Comprehensive real-time info table displaying all key metrics
Full alert system for entries, indications, and consolidation detection
Visual distinction between high-confidence trend entries and cautionary reversal entries
📖 USAGE GUIDE
Entry Signal Types:
The indicator provides three types of entry signals with visual distinction:
Strong Entries (High Confidence):
"BUY" (bright green) / "SELL" (bright red)
Includes traditional entries (crossing back through indication level) and breakout entries (breaking consolidation in trend direction)
These are trend continuation or breakout signals with higher probability
Recommended for all traders
Reversal Entries (Caution - Counter-Trend):
"⚠ BUY" (yellow) / "⚠ SELL" (orange)
Triggered when price breaks out of correction/consolidation in the OPPOSITE direction
Indicates a failed setup and potential trend reversal
More aggressive, counter-trend plays
Can be toggled off in settings for more conservative trading
Recommended only for experienced traders or after thorough backtesting
Swing Length Settings:
The swing length determines how many bars on each side are needed to confirm a swing high/low. This is the most important setting for tuning the indicator to your style.
Auto Mode (Recommended for beginners): Toggle "Use Auto Timeframe Settings" ON
5-minute: 30 bars
15-minute: 20 bars
30-minute: 12 bars
1-hour: 7 bars
4-hour: 5 bars
Daily: 3 bars
Manual Mode: Toggle "Use Auto Timeframe Settings" OFF
Lower values (3-7): More aggressive, detects smaller swings
Pros: More signals, faster entries, catches smaller moves
Cons: More noise, more false signals, requires tighter stops
Best for: Scalping, active day trading, volatile markets
Higher values (12-20): More conservative, only major swings
Pros: More reliable signals, fewer false breakouts, clearer structure
Cons: Fewer signals, delayed entries, might miss smaller opportunities
Best for: Swing trading, position trading, trending markets
Default Manual Setting: 7 bars (balanced for 1H charts)
Minimum: 3 bars
Consolidation Bars Setting:
Determines how many bars without new structure are needed before flagging consolidation.
Lower values (3-10): Faster detection, catches brief pauses, more sensitive
Best for: Lower timeframes, volatile markets, avoiding any chop
Higher values (20-40): More reliable, only flags true extended consolidation
Best for: Higher timeframes, trending markets, patient traders
Current defaults scale with timeframe (more bars needed on shorter timeframes)
Historical S/R Zones:
Shows previous support and resistance levels to provide context.
Default: 2 historical zones (shows current + 2 previous)
Range: 0-3 zones
Visual Hierarchy: Older zones are more transparent with dashed borders
Usage: Higher numbers (2-3) show more historical context but can clutter the chart. Start with 2 and adjust based on your preference.
Live Structure Feature (Yellow Warning ⚠):
Provides early warning of potential structure changes before full confirmation.
What it does: Detects potential swing highs/lows after just 2 bars instead of waiting for full swing_length confirmation
Live Peak: Shows when a high is followed by 2 lower closes (potential top forming)
Live Trough: Shows when a low is followed by 2 higher closes (potential bottom forming)
Important: These are UNCONFIRMED - they may be invalidated if price reverses
Use case: Get early awareness of potential reversals while waiting for confirmation
Displayed in: Info table only (no visual markers on chart to reduce clutter)
Only shows: Peaks higher than last swing high, or troughs lower than last swing low (filters out noise)
Higher Timeframe (HTF) Analysis:
View higher timeframe ICC structure while trading on lower timeframes.
How to enable: Toggle "Show Higher Timeframe ICC" ON
Setup: Set "Higher Timeframe" to your reference timeframe
Example: Trading on 15-minute? Set HTF to 240 (4-hour) or 60 (1-hour)
Example: Trading on 5-minute? Set HTF to 60 (1-hour) or 15 (15-minute)
What it shows:
HTF indication levels displayed as dashed lines
Blue = HTF Bullish Indication
Purple = HTF Bearish Indication
HTF phase and levels shown in info table
Trading workflow:
Check HTF phase for overall market direction
Wait for HTF correction phase
Drop to lower timeframe to find precise entries
Enter when lower TF shows continuation in alignment with HTF
Best practice: HTF should be 3-4x your trading timeframe for best results
Reversal Entries Toggle:
Default: ON (shows all signal types)
Toggle OFF for more conservative trading (only trend continuation signals)
Recommended: Backtest with both settings to see which works better for your style
New traders should consider disabling reversal entries initially
Volatility-Based Zones:
When enabled, support/resistance zones automatically adjust their height based on ATR (Average True Range).
More volatile = wider zones
Less volatile = tighter zones
Toggle OFF for fixed-width zones
Community Feedback Welcome:
This is an evolving project and your input is valuable! Please share:
Bug reports and issues you encounter
Feature requests and suggestions for improvement
Results from your backtesting and live trading experience
Feedback on the reversal entry feature (too aggressive? working well?)
Ideas for better aligning with the ICC methodology
Perfect for traders learning or implementing the ICC methodology with the benefit of modern automation, multi-timeframe analysis, and flexible entry signal options.
Smart Adaptive Double Patterns [The_lurker]Smart Adaptive Double Patterns
This is an advanced technical indicator that combines two of the strongest and most renowned classical price reversal patterns:
✅ Double Bottom Pattern — a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend
✅ Double Top Pattern — a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an uptrend
The indicator does not merely detect patterns — it provides a fully integrated, intelligent system that includes:
✅ Precise quality scoring for each pattern using 5 technical criteria
✅ Automatic price target calculation at three levels (Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive)
✅ Multi-layer dynamic filtering to avoid false signals
✅ Live pattern tracking from formation to target achievement or failure
✅ Comprehensive alert system covering all possible trading scenarios
🎯 Why Is This Indicator Unique?
1️⃣ High Detection Accuracy
Unlike traditional indicators that rely on simple rules, this one applies 5 strict structural conditions to confirm pattern validity:
A clear trend must precede the pattern
High symmetry between the two bottoms or two tops
No break of critical price levels during formation
Logical spacing between key points
Technical confirmation from ADX, ATR, and Volume
2️⃣ Advanced Quality Scoring System
Each pattern is scored out of 100 based on 5 weighted criteria:
Symmetry (30%): How closely the two bottoms or tops match
Trend Strength (20%): Strength of the prior trend
Volume Behavior (20%): Trading activity at critical points
Pattern Depth (15%): Vertical distance between neckline and bottom/top
Structural Integrity (15%): Full compliance with structural rules
3️⃣ Smart Target Management
Separate targets for bullish (Double Bottom) and bearish (Double Top) patterns
Separate projections for success and failure cases
Multiple options: Conservative (0.618) / Balanced (1.0) / Aggressive (1.618)
Live tracking with dynamic moving lines
4️⃣ Professional Failure Handling
Failed patterns are not ignored — they are turned into counter-trend opportunities:
Failed Double Bottom → triggers a bearish signal with downside targets
Failed Double Top → triggers a bullish signal with upside targets
Automatic color change for clear visual distinction
5️⃣ Full Customization Flexibility
Enable/disable each pattern independently
22+ adjustable settings
Unique colors for each pattern and quality level
Full bilingual support (Arabic / English)
📐 Pattern Details
🟦 Double Bottom Pattern
Sequence of points:
🔹 Point 1: Peak marking the start of a strong downtrend
🔹 Point 2 (Bottom 1): First low — first key bounce
🔹 Point 3: Intermediate high — forms the neckline (resistance)
🔹 Point 4 (Bottom 2): Second low — should closely match Bottom 1
🔹 Point 5: Breakout point — pattern confirmation
Mandatory Conditions:
✅ Clear downtrend before Point 2
✅ Bottoms 2 & 4 nearly identical (≤1.5% difference by default)
✅ Point 3 higher than both bottoms
✅ Neither bottom is broken during formation
✅ Sufficient time between points (≥10 candles by default)
✅ Success Scenario
→ Price breaks above the neckline (Point 3)
→ Point 5 is plotted at breakout candle
→ Dashed vertical line drawn from Point 5 to target
→ Horizontal dashed line tracks price toward target
→ Dashboard shows: Pattern Type | Quality | Rating | Target | Status
→ When target hits: line turns green + ✅ appears
🎯 Target Calculation
Pattern Height = Point 3 − Point 4
• Conservative: Point 3 + (Height × 0.618 × Quality Factor)
• Balanced: Point 3 + (Height × 1.0 × Quality Factor)
• Aggressive: Point 3 + (Height × 1.618 × Quality Factor)
❌ Failure Scenario
→ Price breaks below both Bottom 1 or Bottom 2 before neckline breakout
Visual Changes:
All lines turn red
Red ✖ appears at breakdown candle
Neckline stops expanding
Red dashed vertical line from breakdown point to bearish target
Red horizontal tracking line follows price
Dashboard updates to:
⚠ Failed Bottom – Bearish
→ Shows new bearish target
→ Indicates target mode for failure case
→ Status: Bearish Reversal
→ Fully red display
🟥 Double Top Pattern
Sequence of points:
🔹 Point 1: Trough marking the start of a strong uptrend
🔹 Point 2 (Top 1): First peak — first key resistance
🔹 Point 3: Intermediate low — forms the neckline (support)
🔹 Point 4 (Top 2): Second peak — should closely match Top 1
🔹 Point 5: Breakdown point — pattern confirmation
Mandatory Conditions:
✅ Clear uptrend before Point 2
✅ Tops 2 & 4 nearly identical (≤1.5% difference by default)
✅ Point 3 lower than both tops
✅ Neither top is breached during formation
✅ Sufficient time between points (≥10 candles by default)
✅ Success Scenario
→ Price breaks below the neckline (Point 3)
→ Point 5 is plotted at breakdown candle
→ Dashed vertical line drawn to target
→ Horizontal tracking line moves with price
→ Dashboard updates accordingly
→ Green line + ✅ on hit
🎯 Target Calculation
Pattern Height = Point 4 − Point 3
• Conservative: Point 3 − (Height × 0.618 × Quality Factor)
• Balanced: Point 3 − (Height × 1.0 × Quality Factor)
• Aggressive: Point 3 − (Height × 1.618 × Quality Factor)
❌ Failure Scenario
→ Price breaks above either Top 1 or Top 2 before neckline breakdown
Visual Changes:
All lines turn cyan (light blue)
Cyan ✖ appears at breakout candle
Neckline stops expanding
Cyan dashed vertical line to bullish target
Cyan horizontal tracking line follows price
Dashboard updates to:
⚠ Failed Top – Bullish
→ Shows new bullish target
→ Indicates target mode for failure case
→ Status: Bullish Reversal
→ Fully cyan display
🎯 Upside Target (after Double Top failure)
Max Top = max(Point 2, Point 4)
Height = Max Top − Point 3
• Conservative: Max Top + (Height × 0.618)
• Balanced: Max Top + (Height × 1.0)
• Aggressive: Max Top + (Height × 1.618)
📊 Quality Scoring System (0–100)
1️⃣ Symmetry (30%)
Measures price match between the two bottoms or two tops.
High score (25–30): Near-perfect symmetry → very strong pattern
Medium (15–24): Good match → reliable signal
Low (5–14): Weak symmetry → use caution
Zero: No symmetry → invalid pattern
2️⃣ Trend Strength (20%)
Uses ADX and DI indicators.
20 pts: Strong trend confirmed (e.g., ADX ≥ 20 + correct DI alignment)
10 pts: Trend filter disabled
6 pts: Weak or sideways trend
3️⃣ Volume Behavior (20%)
Declining volume on second touch is a positive sign (shows exhaustion).
15–20 pts: Clear volume drop → strong signal
10 pts: Neutral volume
6 pts: Rising volume → higher risk of continuation
4️⃣ Pattern Depth (15%)
Deeper patterns = stronger reversals.
12–15 pts: Deep → high reversal power
8–11 pts: Medium → acceptable
<8 pts: Shallow → weak signal
5️⃣ Structural Integrity (15%)
Checks logical structure (e.g., Point 1 > Point 3 in Double Bottom).
12–15 pts: Ideal structure
8–11 pts: Minor flaws
<8 pts: Poor setup
📈 Final Quality Rating & Colors
• 85–100 → ⭐ Excellent
→ Double Bottom: Cyan #00BCD4
→ Double Top: Light Red #FF5252
• 75–84 → ✨ Very Good
• 65–74 → ✓ Good
• 60–64 → ○ Acceptable
→ All use Amber #FFC107
• <60 → ❌ Rejected (not shown)
→ Gray #9E9E9E
🔧 Dynamic Filters
1️⃣ ATR Filter (Volatility Check)
Rejects patterns in abnormally high volatility periods.
→ If current ATR > 1.8 × 50-period ATR MA → pattern rejected
✅ Recommended for crypto, small caps
❌ Optional for calm markets (gold, bonds)
2️⃣ ADX Filter (Trend Confirmation)
Ensures a real trend exists before the pattern.
→ If ADX < 14 (70% of default 20) → pattern rejected
✅ Strongly recommended (keep ON)
3️⃣ Volume Filter (Behavior Validation)
Not used to reject patterns, but strongly affects quality score.
✅ Best for liquid markets (Forex majors, large stocks)
❌ Optional for illiquid assets
⚙️ Key Settings Explained
🔘 General Settings
• Language: Arabic / English
• Show Previous Patterns: Yes / No
→ “No” keeps chart clean; “Yes” for historical review
🔘 Pattern Selection
• Enable Double Bottom: ✅ / ❌
• Enable Double Top: ✅ / ❌
→ Use combinations:
✅✅ → Full reversal scanning
✅❌ → Long setups only
❌✅ → Short setups only
❌❌ → Indicator OFF
🔘 Detection Parameters
• Pivots Left (1–20): Higher = more reliable, fewer patterns
• Pivots Right (1–20): Lower = faster signals
• Min Width (5–100): Min candles between Bottom/Top 1 & 2
• Tolerance % (0.1%–5%): Max allowed price difference
• Min Arm (5–50): Min candles between pivot & neckline
• Min Trend (5–50): Min candles in prior trend
• Trend Lookback (50–500): How far back to detect trend start
• Extension Multiplier (1.0–5.0): How long to wait for breakout
🔘 Quality Settings
• Min Quality Score (0–100):
→ Conservative: 75–85
→ Balanced: 60–70
→ Flexible: 50–55
• Custom Weights: Adjust based on market (e.g., increase Volume weight in Forex)
🔘 Target Settings
• Bottom Bullish Target: Conservative / Balanced / Aggressive
• Bottom Bearish Target: (used on failure)
• Top Bearish Target: Conservative / Balanced / Aggressive
• Top Bullish Target: (used on failure)
🔘 Visual Settings
• Label Size: Small / Normal / Large / Huge
• Pattern Colors: Fully customizable
• Table: Show/Hide + Size (Small/Normal/Large) + Position (Top-Right / Top-Left / Bottom-Right / Bottom-Left)
• Fill Transparency: 70%–95% (default: 85%)
🔔 Alert System (8 Independent Alerts)
📌 Double Bottom Alerts
Bullish Breakout → “Double Bottom Breakout – Bullish!”
Bullish Target Hit → “Bullish Target Achieved!”
Failure (Bearish) → “Double Bottom Failed – Bearish!”
Bearish Target Hit → “Bearish Target Achieved (Failure)!”
📌 Double Top Alerts
Bearish Breakdown → “Double Top Breakdown – Bearish!”
Bearish Target Hit → “Bearish Target Achieved!”
Failure (Bullish) → “Double Top Failed – Bullish!”
Bullish Target Hit → “Bullish Target Achieved (Failure)!”
Each alert can be enabled/disabled independently and supports pop-ups, emails, or webhooks.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Use it in conjunction with your own strategy and risk management. Neither TradingView nor the developer is liable for any financial decisions or losses.
Stochastic BTC OptimizedEnhanced Stochastic for Bitcoin (BTC) – Optimized for Daily Timeframe
This enhanced Stochastic oscillator is specifically fine-tuned for BTC/USD on the 1D timeframe, leveraging historical data from Bitstamp (2011–2025) to minimize false signals and maximize reliability in Bitcoin's volatile swings.
Unlike the classic Stochastic (14, 3, 3), this version uses optimized parameters:
- K Period = 21 – smoother reaction, better suited for BTC’s macro cycles
- D Period = 3, Smooth K = 3 – reduces noise while preserving responsiveness
- Overbought = 85, Oversold = 15 – accounts for BTC’s tendency to trend strongly within extreme zones without immediate reversal
✅ Smart Signal Logic:
Buy/sell signals appear only when %K crosses %D inside the oversold (≤15) or overbought (≥85) zones, and only the first signal is shown to avoid whipsaws.
Visual Enhancements:
- Thick lines when %K/%D are in overbought/oversold zones
- Green/red background highlights on valid signals
- Optional up/down arrows for clear entry visualization
- Customizable colors, line widths, and transparency
🔒 No alerts included – clean, focused on price action and momentum.
💡 Pro Tip: For even higher accuracy, use this indicator in combination with a long-term trend filter (e.g., EMA 200). The oscillator excels in ranging or retracement phases but should not be used alone in strong parabolic moves.
Based on Mozilla Public License v2.0 – feel free to use, modify, and share. Perfect for swing traders and long-term Bitcoin analysts seeking high-probability reversal zones.
перевод на русский
Улучшенный Stochastic для Bitcoin (BTC) — оптимизирован для дневного таймфрейма
Этот улучшенный осциллятор Stochastic специально настроен под BTC/USD на дневном графике, с учётом исторических данных Bitstamp (2011–2025), чтобы минимизировать ложные сигналы и повысить надёжность в условиях высокой волатильности биткоина.
В отличие от классического Stochastic (14, 3, 3), эта версия использует оптимизированные параметры:
- Период K = 21 — более плавная реакция, лучше соответствует макроциклам BTC
- Период D = 3, Сглаживание K = 3 — снижает шум, сохраняя отзывчивость
- Уровень перекупленности = 85, перепроданности = 15 — учитывает склонность BTC к сильным трендам в экстремальных зонах без немедленного разворота
✅ Интеллектуальная логика сигналов:
Покупка/продажа отображается только при пересечении %K и %D внутри зоны перепроданности (≤15) или перекупленности (≥85), и только первый сигнал фиксируется, чтобы избежать «хлыстов».
Улучшенная визуализация:
- Жирные линии, когда %K/%D находятся в экстремальных зонах
- Зелёный/красный фон при появлении сигналов
- Опциональные стрелки для чёткого отображения точек входа
- Настройка цветов, толщины линий и прозрачности
🔒 Без алертов — чистый инструмент, сфокусированный на цене и импульсе.
💡 Совет профессионала: для ещё большей точности используйте этот индикатор вместе с трендовым фильтром (например, EMA 200). Осциллятор лучше всего работает в фазах консолидации или отката, но не стоит применять его в одиночку во время сильных параболических движений.
На основе Mozilla Public License v2.0 — свободно используйте, модифицируйте и делитесь. Идеален для свинг-трейдеров и аналитиков Bitcoin, ищущих зоны с высокой вероятностью разворота.
Altseason IndexDescription of the "Altseason Index" Indicator
The Altseason Index is a powerful and visually minimalist tool designed to objectively identify the onset and conclusion of an "altseason" in the cryptocurrency market. Moving beyond subjective speculation, this indicator employs a clear, mathematical methodology by comparing the performance of a broad basket of altcoins against Bitcoin.
🎯 Core Concept and Utility
An "Altseason" is a market period where altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) consistently yield higher returns than BTC. This indicator empowers traders and investors to:
Objectively Identify Market Cycles: Precisely pinpoint when capital is actively rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins and vice versa.
Make Data-Driven Decisions: Adjust their strategy in a timely manner: increasing exposure to altcoins during an altseason or rotating back into BTC upon its conclusion.
Avoid Emotional Pitfalls: Steer clear of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and base decisions on hard data rather than market noise.
⚙️ How the Calculation Works
1. Asset Selection: The indicator tracks the performance of 15 leading altcoins across various market segments (Layer 1s, DeFi, Meme, Payments), ensuring a representative sample.
2. Performance Comparison: For each altcoin, the percentage price change over the user-defined lookback period (default: 90 days) is calculated. This performance is then compared to BTC's performance over the same period.
3. Counting the "Outperformers": The index counts the number of altcoins that have "outperformed" BTC.
4. Calculating the Index: The Altseason Index value is the percentage of altcoins in the basket that are outperforming BTC. For example, a value of 60% means that 9 out of the 15 coins performed better than Bitcoin.
🛠️ Indicator Settings
The settings are kept simple and intuitive, allowing you to customize the indicator to your strategy:
Lookback Period (days) (Default: 90):
- Defines the time horizon for the performance calculation.
- Shorter Periods (30-60 days) react faster to new trends but may produce more false signals.
- Longer Periods (90-180 days) provide smoother and more reliable signals, capturing sustained macro-trends.
Altseason Threshold (%) (Default: 75%):
- This is the key parameter that defines what index value constitutes an official "altseason."
- A threshold of 75% means an altseason is declared when at least 11 out of the 15 altcoins (75%) are outperforming BTC.
- You can increase the threshold (e.g., to 85%) for more conservative and stronger signals, or decrease it (e.g., to 65%) for earlier entries.
📊 Interpreting the Readings and Signals
The indicator uses a clear color-coding system and levels for easy interpretation:
🔴 < 30%: "BTC SEASON"
Bitcoin is dominating. The market is in risk-off mode or a state of anticipation. Growth is concentrated in BTC.
⚪ 30% - 49%: "NEUTRAL"
A transitional phase. The market is uncertain. Some alts show strength, but there is no unified trend.
🔵 50% - 74%: "BULLISH"
Growing strength in altcoins. Capital is beginning to rotate actively. This can be an early stage of an altseason.
🟢 ≥ 75% (or your custom threshold): "ALTSEASON"
The active altseason phase. The vast majority of altcoins are rising faster than BTC. This is the period of maximum potential returns for alts.
Signal Markers:
Green Dot: Signals the potential start of an altseason (the index crosses above the threshold).
Red Dot: Signals the potential end of an altseason (the index crosses below the threshold).
ℹ️ Information Panel
The chart displays two clean information panels:
1. Main Info Label:
Current index value (e.g., ⟠ 80%).
Market status (ALTSEASON, BULLISH, etc.).
The ratio of outperforming altcoins (11/15 alts).
2. Dominance & Market Cap Panel:
Alts: Altcoin Dominance (the market cap share of all coins except BTC).
BTC: Bitcoin Dominance.
Market: Total cryptocurrency market capitalization in billions of USD. This helps assess the overall market context (bullish/bearish).
💎 Conclusion
The Altseason Index is your strategic companion for navigating the crypto markets. It transforms the complex task of identifying market cycles into a simple and visual process. Use it to confirm broad market trends, identify potential entry and exit points, and, most importantly, to maintain discipline in your trading strategy by filtering out noise and emotion.
Disclaimer: This indicator is a tool for analysis and does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions are taken at your own risk.
Universal Scalper Indicator [Crypto/Forex/Gold]Universal Scalper Pro is an all-in-one scalping system designed for the 15-Minute Timeframe. It automates the analysis of trend, volatility, and risk management into a single, high-contrast dashboard.
Unlike standard crossover indicators, this system filters out low-volatility "noise" using a built-in ADX engine and automatically calculates dynamic Stop Loss and Take Profit levels based on market volatility (ATR).
It is engineered to work universally on:
Crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL, Altcoins)
Commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil)
Forex (Major & Minor Pairs)
Stocks (High volume tech stocks like NVDA, TSLA)
📈 How It Works (The Strategy)
1. The Trend Engine (9/21 EMA) The core logic utilizes a Fast (9) and Slow (21) Exponential Moving Average crossover.
Bullish Signal: The 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA.
Bearish Signal: The 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA. This specific combination is chosen for its responsiveness to 15-minute intraday trends.
2. The Noise Filter (ADX > 15) To prevent "whipsaws" (fake signals during sideways markets), the script includes a Volatility Filter based on the Average Directional Index (ADX).
Signals are rejected if the ADX is below 15.
This ensures you only receive alerts when there is sufficient momentum to sustain a move.
3. Dynamic Risk Management (ATR) The script uses the Average True Range (ATR) to calculate Stop Loss and Take Profit levels that adapt to the specific asset's volatility.
Stop Loss: Placed at 1.5x ATR from the entry. (Tight enough to preserve capital, wide enough to survive standard market noise).
Take Profit: Placed at 2.0x ATR from the entry. (Provides a healthy 1:1.3 Risk/Reward ratio).
🚀 Key Features
Universal Dashboard: A bottom-right panel displays the live Trend Status, Entry Price, Stop Loss, and Take Profit. It automatically formats decimals for any asset (e.g., 2 decimals for Gold, 5 for Forex, 8 for Crypto).
"Sticky" Memory: The dashboard retains the prices of the last valid signal, allowing you to manage your trade even after the signal candle closes.
Trend Cloud: A visual Green/Red zone between the EMAs helps you instantly identify the market bias.
Unified Alerts: A single alert setup ("Any alert() function call") sends the Asset Name, Entry, SL, and TP directly to your phone.
🛠️ How to Use
Timeframe: Set your chart to 15 Minutes (15m).
Wait for the Signal: Look for the "BUY" (Green) or "SELL" (Red) label on the chart.
Check the Dashboard: Ensure the "STATUS" is BULLISH (for buys) or BEARISH (for sells). If the status says "WAIT", do not trade.
Execute: Enter the trade using the exact Stop Loss and Take Profit levels shown on the dashboard.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
Trading financial markets involves high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This indicator is a technical analysis tool and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always practice with a demo account before trading real capital.
Super momentum DBSISuper momentum DBSI: The Ultimate Guide
1. What is this Indicator?
The Super momentum DBSI is a "Consensus Engine." Instead of relying on a single line (like an RSI) to tell you where the market is going, this tool calculates 33 distinct technical indicators simultaneously for every single candle.
It treats the market like a democracy. It asks 33 mathematical "voters" (Momentum, Trend, Volume, Volatility) if they are Bullish or Bearish.
If 30 out of 33 say "Buy," the score is high (Yellow), and the trend is extremely strong.
If only 15 say "Buy," the score is low (Teal), and the trend is weak or choppy.
2. Visual Guide: How to Read the Numbers
The Scores
Top Number (Bears): Represents Selling Pressure.
Bottom Number (Bulls): Represents Buying Pressure.
The Colors (The Traffic Lights)
The colors are your primary signal. They tell you who is currently winning the war.
🟡 YELLOW (Dominance):
This indicates the Winning Side.
If the Bottom Number is Yellow, Bulls are in control.
If the Top Number is Yellow, Bears are in control.
🔴 RED (Weakness):
This appears on the Top. It means Bears are present but losing.
🔵 TEAL (Weakness):
This appears on the Bottom. It means Bulls are present but losing.
3. Trading Strategy
Scenario A: The "Strong Buy" (Long Entry)
The Setup: You are looking for a shift in momentum where Buyers overwhelm Sellers.
Watch the Bottom Number: Wait for it to turn Yellow.
Confirm Strength: Ensure the score is above 15 and rising (e.g., 12 → 18 → 22).
Check the Top: The Top Number should be Red and low (below 10).
Trigger: Enter on the candle close.
Scenario B: The "Strong Sell" (Short Entry)
The Setup: You are looking for Sellers to crush the Buyers.
Watch the Top Number: Wait for it to turn Yellow.
Confirm Strength: Ensure the score is above 15 and rising.
Check the Bottom: The Bottom Number should be Teal and low.
Trigger: Enter on the candle close.
Scenario C: The "No Trade Zone" (Choppy Market)
The Setup: The market is confused.
Visual: Top is Red, Bottom is Teal.
Meaning: NOBODY IS WINNING. There is no Yellow number.
Action: Do not trade. This usually happens during lunch hours, weekends, or right before big news. This filter alone will save you from many false breakouts.
4. What is Inside? (The 33 Indicators)
To give you confidence in the signals, here is exactly what the script is checking:
Group 1: Momentum (Oscillators)
Detects if price is moving fast.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
Stochastic
Williams %R
Momentum
Rate of Change (ROC)
Ultimate Oscillator
Awesome Oscillator
True Strength Index (TSI)
Stoch RSI
TRIX
Chande Momentum Oscillator
Group 2: Trend Direction
Detects the general path of the market.
13. MACD
14. Parabolic SAR
15. SuperTrend
16. ALMA (Moving Average)
17. Aroon
18. ADX (Directional Movement)
19. Coppock Curve
20. Ichimoku Conversion Line
21. Hull Moving Average
Group 3: Price Action
Detects where price is relative to averages.
22. Price vs EMA 20
23. Price vs EMA 50
24. Price vs EMA 200
Group 4: Volume & Force
Detects if there is money behind the move.
25. Money Flow Index (MFI)
26. On Balance Volume (OBV)
27. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
28. VWAP (Intraday)
29. Elder Force Index
30. Ease of Movement
Group 5: Volatility
Detects if price is pushing the outer limits.
31. Bollinger Bands
32. Keltner Channels
33. Donchian Channels
5. Pro Tips for Success
Don't Catch Knives: If the Bear score (Top) is Yellow and 25+, do not try to buy the dip. Wait for the Yellow score to break.
Exit Early: If you are Long and the Yellow Bull score drops from 28 to 15 in one candle, TAKE PROFIT. The momentum has died.
Use Higher Timeframes: This indicator works best on 15m, 1H, and 4H charts. On the 1m chart, it may be too volatile.
Pair Cointegration & Static Beta Analyzer (v6)Pair Cointegration & Static Beta Analyzer (v6)
This indicator evaluates whether two instruments exhibit statistical properties consistent with cointegration and tradable mean reversion.
It uses long-term beta estimation, spread standardization, AR(1) dynamics, drift stability, tail distribution analysis, and a multi-factor scoring model.
1. Static Beta and Spread Construction
A long-horizon static beta is estimated using covariance and variance of log-returns.
This beta does not update on every bar and is used throughout the entire model.
Beta = Cov(r1, r2) / Var(r2)
Spread = PriceA - Beta * PriceB
This “frozen” beta provides structural stability and avoids rolling noise in spread construction.
2. Correlation Check
Log-price correlation ensures the instruments move together over time.
Correlation ≥ 0.85 is required before deeper cointegration diagnostics are considered meaningful.
3. Z-Score Normalization and Distribution Behavior
The spread is standardized:
Z = (Spread - MA(Spread)) / Std(Spread)
The following statistical properties are examined:
Z-Mean: Should be close to zero in a stationary process
Z-Variance: Measures amplitude of deviations
Tail Probability: Frequency of |Z| being larger than a threshold (e.g. 2)
These metrics reveal whether the spread behaves like a mean-reverting equilibrium.
4. Mean Drift Stability
A rolling mean of the spread is examined.
If the rolling mean drifts excessively, the spread may not represent a stable long-term equilibrium.
A normalized drift ratio is used:
Mean Drift Ratio = Range( RollingMean(Spread) ) / Std(Spread)
Low drift indicates stable long-run equilibrium behavior.
5. AR(1) Dynamics and Half-Life
An AR(1) model approximates mean reversion:
Spread(t) = Phi * Spread(t-1) + error
Mean reversion requires:
0 < Phi < 1
Half-life of reversion:
Half-life = -ln(2) / ln(Phi)
Valid half-life for 10-minute bars typically falls between 3 and 80 bars.
6. Composite Scoring Model (0–100)
A multi-factor weighted scoring system is applied:
Component Score
Correlation 0–20
Z-Mean 0–15
Z-Variance 0–10
Tail Probability 0–10
Mean Drift 0–15
AR(1) Phi 0–15
Half-Life 0–15
Score interpretation:
70–100: Strong Cointegration Quality
40–70: Moderate
0–40: Weak
A pair is classified as cointegrated when:
Total Score ≥ Threshold (default = 70)
7. Main Cointegration Panel
Displays:
Static beta
Log-price correlation
Z-Mean, Z-Variance, Tail Probability
Drift Ratio
AR(1) Phi and Half-life
Composite score
Overall cointegration assessment
8. Beta Hedge Position Sizing (Average-Price Based)
To provide a more stable hedge ratio, hedge sizing is computed using average prices, not instantaneous prices:
AvgPriceA = SMA(PriceA, N)
AvgPriceB = SMA(PriceB, N)
Required B per 1 A = Beta * (AvgPriceA / AvgPriceB)
Using averaged prices results in a smoother, more reliable hedge ratio, reducing noise from bar-to-bar volatility.
The panel displays:
Required B security for 1 A security (average)
This represents the beta-neutral quantity of B required to hedge one unit of A.
Overview of Classical Stationarity & Cointegration Methods
The principal econometric tools commonly used in assessing stationarity and cointegration include:
Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) Test
Phillips–Perron (PP) Test
KPSS Test
Engle–Granger Cointegration Test
Phillips–Ouliaris Cointegration Test
Johansen Cointegration Test
Since these procedures rely on regression residuals, matrix operations, and distribution-based critical values that are not supported in TradingView Pine Script, a practical multi-criteria scoring approach is employed instead. This framework leverages metrics that are fully computable in Pine and offers an operational proxy for evaluating cointegration-like behavior under platform constraints.
References
Engle & Granger (1987), Co-integration and Error Correction
Poterba & Summers (1988), Mean Reversion in Stock Prices
Vidyamurthy (2004), Pairs Trading
Explanation structured with assistance from OpenAI’s ChatGPT
Regards.
Golden Cross 50/200 EMATrend-following systems are characterized by having a low win rate, yet in the right circumstances (trending markets and higher timeframes) they can deliver returns that even surpass those of systems with a high win rate.
Below, I show you a simple bullish trend-following system with clear execution rules:
System Rules
-Long entries when the 50-period EMA crosses above the 200-period EMA.
-Stop Loss (SL) placed at the lowest low of the 15 candles prior to the entry candle.
-Take Profit (TP) triggered when the 50-period EMA crosses below the 200-period EMA.
Risk Management
-Initial capital: $10,000
-Position size: 10% of capital per trade
-Commissions: 0.1% per trade
Important Note:
In the code, the stop loss is defined using the swing low (15 candles), but the position size is not adjusted based on the distance to the stop loss. In other words, 10% of the equity is risked on each trade, but the actual loss on the trade is not controlled by a maximum fixed percentage of the account — it depends entirely on the stop loss level. This means the loss on a single trade could be significantly higher or lower than 10% of the account equity, depending on volatility.
Implementing leverage or reducing position size based on volatility is something I haven’t been able to include in the code, but it would dramatically improve the system’s performance. It would fix a consistent percentage loss per trade, preventing losses from fluctuating wildly with changes in volatility.
For example, we can maintain a fixed loss percentage when volatility is low by using the following formula:
Leverage = % of SL you’re willing to risk / % volatility from entry point to stop loss
And when volatility is high and would exceed the fixed percentage we want to expose per trade (if the SL is hit), we could reduce the position size accordingly.
Practical example:
Imagine we only want to risk 15% of the position value if the stop loss is triggered on Tesla (which has high volatility), but the distance to the SL represents a potential 23.57% drop. In this case, we subtract the desired risk (15%) from the actual volatility-based loss (23.57%):
23.57% − 15% = 8.57%
Now suppose we normally use $200 per trade.
To calculate 8.57% of $200:
200 × (8.57 / 100) = $17.14
Then subtract that amount from the original position size:
$200 − $17.14 = $182.86
In summary:
If we reduce the position size to $182.86 (instead of the usual $200), even if Tesla moves 23.57% against us and hits the stop loss, we would still only lose approximately 15% of the original $200 position — exactly the risk level we defined. This way, we strictly respect our risk management rules regardless of volatility swings.
I hope this clearly explains the importance of capping losses at a fixed percentage per trade. This keeps risk under control while maintaining a consistent percentage of capital invested per trade — preventing both statistical distortion of the system and the potential destruction of the account.
About the code:
Strategy declaration:
The strategy is named 'Golden Cross 50/200 EMA'.
overlay=true means it will be drawn directly on the price chart.
initial_capital=10000 sets the initial capital to $10,000.
default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity and default_qty_value=10 means each trade uses 10% of available equity.
margin_long=0 indicates no margin is used for long positions (this is likely for simulation purposes only; in real trading, margin would be required).
commission_type=strategy.commission.percent and commission_value=0.1 sets a 0.1% commission per trade.
Indicators:
Calculates two EMAs: a 50-period EMA (ema50) and a 200-period EMA (ema200).
Crossover detection:
bullCross is triggered when the 50-period EMA crosses above the 200-period EMA (Golden Cross).
bearCross is triggered when the 50-period EMA crosses below the 200-period EMA (Death Cross).
Recent swing:
swingLow calculates the lowest low of the previous 15 periods.
Stop Loss:
entryStopLoss is a variable initialized as na (not available) and is updated to the current swingLow value whenever a bullCross occurs.
Entry and exit conditions:
Entry: When a bullCross occurs, the initial stop loss is set to the current swingLow and a long position is opened.
Exit on opposite signal: When a bearCross occurs, the long position is closed.
Exit on stop loss: If the price falls below entryStopLoss while a position is open, the position is closed.
Visualization:
Both EMAs are plotted (50-period in blue, 200-period in red).
Green triangles are plotted below the bar on a bullCross, and red triangles above the bar on a bearCross.
A horizontal orange line is drawn that shows the stop loss level whenever a position is open.
Alerts:
Alerts are created for:Long entry
Exit on bearish crossover (Death Cross)
Exit triggered by stop loss
Favorable Conditions:
Tesla (45-minute timeframe)
June 29, 2010 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $12,458.73 or +124.59%
Maximum drawdown: $1,210.40 or 8.29%
Total trades: 107
Winning trades: 27.10% (29/107)
Profit factor: 3.141
Tesla (1-hour timeframe)
June 29, 2010 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $7,681.83 or +76.82%
Maximum drawdown: $993.36 or 7.30%
Total trades: 75
Winning trades: 29.33% (22/75)
Profit factor: 3.157
Netflix (45-minute timeframe)
May 23, 2002 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $11,380.73 or +113.81%
Maximum drawdown: $699.45 or 5.98%
Total trades: 134
Winning trades: 36.57% (49/134)
Profit factor: 2.885
Netflix (1-hour timeframe)
May 23, 2002 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $11,689.05 or +116.89%
Maximum drawdown: $844.55 or 7.24%
Total trades: 107
Winning trades: 37.38% (40/107)
Profit factor: 2.915
Netflix (2-hour timeframe)
May 23, 2002 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $12,807.71 or +128.10%
Maximum drawdown: $866.52 or 6.03%
Total trades: 56
Winning trades: 41.07% (23/56)
Profit factor: 3.891
Meta (45-minute timeframe)
May 18, 2012 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $2,370.02 or +23.70%
Maximum drawdown: $365.27 or 3.50%
Total trades: 83
Winning trades: 31.33% (26/83)
Profit factor: 2.419
Apple (45-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $8,232.55 or +80.59%
Maximum drawdown: $581.11 or 3.16%
Total trades: 140
Winning trades: 34.29% (48/140)
Profit factor: 3.009
Apple (1-hour timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $9,685.89 or +94.93%
Maximum drawdown: $374.69 or 2.26%
Total trades: 118
Winning trades: 35.59% (42/118)
Profit factor: 3.463
Apple (2-hour timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $8,001.28 or +77.99%
Maximum drawdown: $755.84 or 7.56%
Total trades: 67
Winning trades: 41.79% (28/67)
Profit factor: 3.825
NVDA (15-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $11,828.56 or +118.29%
Maximum drawdown: $1,275.43 or 8.06%
Total trades: 466
Winning trades: 28.11% (131/466)
Profit factor: 2.033
NVDA (30-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $12,203.21 or +122.03%
Maximum drawdown: $1,661.86 or 10.35%
Total trades: 245
Winning trades: 28.98% (71/245)
Profit factor: 2.291
NVDA (45-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $16,793.48 or +167.93%
Maximum drawdown: $1,458.81 or 8.40%
Total trades: 172
Winning trades: 33.14% (57/172)
Profit factor: 2.927
AdjCloseLibLibrary "AdjCloseLib"
Library for producing gap-adjusted price series that removes intraday gaps at market open
get_adj_close(_gapThresholdPct)
Calculates gap-adjusted close price by detecting and removing gaps at market open (09:15)
Parameters:
_gapThresholdPct (float) : Minimum gap size (in percentage) required to trigger adjustment. Example: 0.5 for 0.5%
Returns: Adjusted close price for the current bar (always returns a numeric value, never na)
@details Detects gaps by comparing 09:15 open with previous day's close. If gap exceeds threshold,
subtracts the gap value from all bars between 09:15-15:29 inclusive. State resets after session close.
get_adj_ohlc(_gapThresholdPct)
Calculates gap-adjusted OHLC values by subtracting detected gap from all price components
Parameters:
_gapThresholdPct (float) : Minimum gap size (in percentage) required to trigger adjustment. Example: 0.5 for 0.5%
Returns: Tuple of
@details Useful for calculating indicators (ATR, Heikin-Ashi, etc.) on gap-adjusted data.
Applies the same gap adjustment logic to all OHLC components simultaneously.
Trend-S&R-WiP11-15-2025: This new indicator is my 5/15-Min-ORB-Trend-Finder-WiP indicator simplified to only have:
> Market Open
> 5-Min & 15-Min High/Low
> Support/Resistance lines
> Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
> a Trend Line
> a Trend table
Recommended to be used with my other indicator: Buy-or-Sell-WiP
Strategy:
> I only trade one ticker, SPX, with ODTE CALL/PUT Credit Spreads
> use Break & Retest with 5-Min High/Low or 15-Min High/Low or FVGs
> 📈 Bullish Trend
Trade: PUT Credit Spread
Trend Confirmations:
Trend Line is green
MACD Histogram is green
Price Condition: Nearest resistance 8-10 points above market price
> 📉 Bearish Trend
Trade: CALL Credit Spread
Trend Confirmations:
Trend Line is purple
MACD Histogram is red
Price Condition: Nearest support 8-10 points below market price
> Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
- Trade anytime during the day using Break & Retest and all indicator confirmations shown above
RSI Overbought/Oversold + Divergence Indicator (new)//@version=5
indicator('CryptoSignalScanner - RSI Overbought/Oversold + Divergence Indicator (new)',
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Define Colors ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vWhite = #FFFFFF
vViolet = #C77DF3
vIndigo = #8A2BE2
vBlue = #009CDF
vGreen = #5EBD3E
vYellow = #FFB900
vRed = #E23838
longColor = color.green
shortColor = color.red
textColor = color.white
bullishColor = color.rgb(38,166,154,0) //Used in the display table
bearishColor = color.rgb(239,83,79,0) //Used in the display table
nomatchColor = color.silver //Used in the display table
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Functions--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF2txt(TF) =>
switch TF
"S" => "RSI 1s:"
"5S" => "RSI 5s:"
"10S" => "RSI 10s:"
"15S" => "RSI 15s:"
"30S" => "RSI 30s"
"1" => "RSI 1m:"
"3" => "RSI 3m:"
"5" => "RSI 5m:"
"15" => "RSI 15m:"
"30" => "RSI 30m"
"45" => "RSI 45m"
"60" => "RSI 1h:"
"120" => "RSI 2h:"
"180" => "RSI 3h:"
"240" => "RSI 4h:"
"480" => "RSI 8h:"
"D" => "RSI 1D:"
"1D" => "RSI 1D:"
"2D" => "RSI 2D:"
"3D" => "RSI 2D:"
"3D" => "RSI 3W:"
"W" => "RSI 1W:"
"1W" => "RSI 1W:"
"M" => "RSI 1M:"
"1M" => "RSI 1M:"
"3M" => "RSI 3M:"
"6M" => "RSI 6M:"
"12M" => "RSI 12M:"
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Show/Hide Settings ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rsiShowInput = input(true, title='Show RSI', group='Show/Hide Settings')
maShowInput = input(false, title='Show MA', group='Show/Hide Settings')
showRSIMAInput = input(true, title='Show RSIMA Cloud', group='Show/Hide Settings')
rsiBandShowInput = input(true, title='Show Oversold/Overbought Lines', group='Show/Hide Settings')
rsiBandExtShowInput = input(true, title='Show Oversold/Overbought Extended Lines', group='Show/Hide Settings')
rsiHighlightShowInput = input(true, title='Show Oversold/Overbought Highlight Lines', group='Show/Hide Settings')
DivergenceShowInput = input(true, title='Show RSI Divergence Labels', group='Show/Hide Settings')
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Table Settings --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rsiShowTable = input(true, title='Show RSI Table Information box', group="RSI Table Settings")
rsiTablePosition = input.string(title='Location', defval='middle_right', options= , group="RSI Table Settings", inline='1')
rsiTextSize = input.string(title=' Size', defval='small', options= , group="RSI Table Settings", inline='1')
rsiShowTF1 = input(true, title='Show TimeFrame1', group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf1')
rsiTF1 = input.timeframe("15", title=" Time", group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf1')
rsiShowTF2 = input(true, title='Show TimeFrame2', group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf2')
rsiTF2 = input.timeframe("60", title=" Time", group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf2')
rsiShowTF3 = input(true, title='Show TimeFrame3', group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf3')
rsiTF3 = input.timeframe("240", title=" Time", group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf3')
rsiShowTF4 = input(true, title='Show TimeFrame4', group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf4')
rsiTF4 = input.timeframe("D", title=" Time", group="RSI Table Settings", inline='tf4')
rsiShowHist = input(true, title='Show RSI Historical Columns', group="RSI Table Settings", tooltip='Show the information of the 2 previous closed candles')
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- RSI Input Settings ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rsiSourceInput = input.source(close, 'Source', group='RSI Settings')
rsiLengthInput = input.int(14, minval=1, title='RSI Length', group='RSI Settings', tooltip='Here we set the RSI lenght')
rsiColorInput = input.color(#26a69a, title="RSI Color", group='RSI Settings')
rsimaColorInput = input.color(#ef534f, title="RSIMA Color", group='RSI Settings')
rsiBandColorInput = input.color(#787B86, title="RSI Band Color", group='RSI Settings')
rsiUpperBandExtInput = input.int(title='RSI Overbought Extended Line', defval=80, minval=50, maxval=100, group='RSI Settings')
rsiUpperBandInput = input.int(title='RSI Overbought Line', defval=70, minval=50, maxval=100, group='RSI Settings')
rsiLowerBandInput = input.int(title='RSI Oversold Line', defval=30, minval=0, maxval=50, group='RSI Settings')
rsiLowerBandExtInput = input.int(title='RSI Oversold Extended Line', defval=20, minval=0, maxval=50, group='RSI Settings')
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- MA Input Settings -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
maTypeInput = input.string("EMA", title="MA Type", options= , group="MA Settings")
maLengthInput = input.int(14, title="MA Length", group="MA Settings")
maColorInput = input.color(color.yellow, title="MA Color", group='MA Settings') //#7E57C2
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Divergence Input Settings ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lbrInput = input(title="Pivot Lookback Right", defval=2, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
lblInput = input(title="Pivot Lookback Left", defval=2, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
lbRangeMaxInput = input(title="Max of Lookback Range", defval=10, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
lbRangeMinInput = input(title="Min of Lookback Range", defval=2, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
plotBullInput = input(title="Plot Bullish", defval=true, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
plotHiddenBullInput = input(title="Plot Hidden Bullish", defval=true, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
plotBearInput = input(title="Plot Bearish", defval=true, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
plotHiddenBearInput = input(title="Plot Hidden Bearish", defval=true, group='RSI Divergence Settings')
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- RSI Calculation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rsi = ta.rsi(rsiSourceInput, rsiLengthInput)
rsiprevious = rsi
= request.security(syminfo.tickerid, rsiTF1, [rsi, rsi , rsi ], lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
= request.security(syminfo.tickerid, rsiTF2, [rsi, rsi , rsi ], lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
= request.security(syminfo.tickerid, rsiTF3, [rsi, rsi , rsi ], lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
= request.security(syminfo.tickerid, rsiTF4, [rsi, rsi , rsi ], lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- MA Calculation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ma(source, length, type) =>
switch type
"SMA" => ta.sma(source, length)
"Bollinger Bands" => ta.sma(source, length)
"EMA" => ta.ema(source, length)
"SMMA (RMA)" => ta.rma(source, length)
"WMA" => ta.wma(source, length)
"VWMA" => ta.vwma(source, length)
rsiMA = ma(rsi, maLengthInput, maTypeInput)
rsiMAPrevious = rsiMA
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Stoch RSI Settings + Calculation --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
showStochRSI = input(false, title="Show Stochastic RSI", group='Stochastic RSI Settings')
smoothK = input.int(title="Stochastic K", defval=3, minval=1, maxval=10, group='Stochastic RSI Settings')
smoothD = input.int(title="Stochastic D", defval=4, minval=1, maxval=10, group='Stochastic RSI Settings')
lengthRSI = input.int(title="Stochastic RSI Lenght", defval=14, minval=1, group='Stochastic RSI Settings')
lengthStoch = input.int(title="Stochastic Lenght", defval=14, minval=1, group='Stochastic RSI Settings')
colorK = input.color(color.rgb(41,98,255,0), title="K Color", group='Stochastic RSI Settings', inline="1")
colorD = input.color(color.rgb(205,109,0,0), title="D Color", group='Stochastic RSI Settings', inline="1")
StochRSI = ta.rsi(rsiSourceInput, lengthRSI)
k = ta.sma(ta.stoch(StochRSI, StochRSI, StochRSI, lengthStoch), smoothK) //Blue Line
d = ta.sma(k, smoothD) //Red Line
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Divergence Settings ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
bearColor = color.red
bullColor = color.green
hiddenBullColor = color.new(color.green, 50)
hiddenBearColor = color.new(color.red, 50)
//textColor = color.white
noneColor = color.new(color.white, 100)
osc = rsi
plFound = na(ta.pivotlow(osc, lblInput, lbrInput)) ? false : true
phFound = na(ta.pivothigh(osc, lblInput, lbrInput)) ? false : true
_inRange(cond) =>
bars = ta.barssince(cond == true)
lbRangeMinInput <= bars and bars <= lbRangeMaxInput
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Define Plot & Line Colors ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rsiColor = rsi >= rsiMA ? rsiColorInput : rsimaColorInput
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Plot Lines ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Create a horizontal line at a specific price level
myLine = line.new(bar_index , 75, bar_index, 75, color = color.rgb(187, 14, 14), width = 2)
bottom = line.new(bar_index , 50, bar_index, 50, color = color.rgb(223, 226, 28), width = 2)
mymainLine = line.new(bar_index , 60, bar_index, 60, color = color.rgb(13, 154, 10), width = 3)
hline(50, title='RSI Baseline', color=color.new(rsiBandColorInput, 50), linestyle=hline.style_solid, editable=false)
hline(rsiBandExtShowInput ? rsiUpperBandExtInput : na, title='RSI Upper Band', color=color.new(rsiBandColorInput, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dashed, editable=false)
hline(rsiBandShowInput ? rsiUpperBandInput : na, title='RSI Upper Band', color=color.new(rsiBandColorInput, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dashed, editable=false)
hline(rsiBandShowInput ? rsiLowerBandInput : na, title='RSI Upper Band', color=color.new(rsiBandColorInput, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dashed, editable=false)
hline(rsiBandExtShowInput ? rsiLowerBandExtInput : na, title='RSI Upper Band', color=color.new(rsiBandColorInput, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dashed, editable=false)
bgcolor(rsiHighlightShowInput ? rsi >= rsiUpperBandExtInput ? color.new(rsiColorInput, 70) : na : na, title="Show Extended Oversold Highlight", editable=false)
bgcolor(rsiHighlightShowInput ? rsi >= rsiUpperBandInput ? rsi < rsiUpperBandExtInput ? color.new(#64ffda, 90) : na : na: na, title="Show Overbought Highlight", editable=false)
bgcolor(rsiHighlightShowInput ? rsi <= rsiLowerBandInput ? rsi > rsiLowerBandExtInput ? color.new(#F43E32, 90) : na : na : na, title="Show Extended Oversold Highlight", editable=false)
bgcolor(rsiHighlightShowInput ? rsi <= rsiLowerBandInput ? color.new(rsimaColorInput, 70) : na : na, title="Show Oversold Highlight", editable=false)
maPlot = plot(maShowInput ? rsiMA : na, title='MA', color=color.new(maColorInput,0), linewidth=1)
rsiMAPlot = plot(showRSIMAInput ? rsiMA : na, title="RSI EMA", color=color.new(rsimaColorInput,0), editable=false, display=display.none)
rsiPlot = plot(rsiShowInput ? rsi : na, title='RSI', color=color.new(rsiColor,0), linewidth=1)
fill(rsiPlot, rsiMAPlot, color=color.new(rsiColor, 60), title="RSIMA Cloud")
plot(showStochRSI ? k : na, title='Stochastic K', color=colorK, linewidth=1)
plot(showStochRSI ? d : na, title='Stochastic D', color=colorD, linewidth=1)
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Plot Divergence -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Regular Bullish
// Osc: Higher Low
oscHL = osc > ta.valuewhen(plFound, osc , 1) and _inRange(plFound )
// Price: Lower Low
priceLL = low < ta.valuewhen(plFound, low , 1)
bullCond = plotBullInput and priceLL and oscHL and plFound
plot(
plFound ? osc : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Regular Bullish",
linewidth=2,
color=(bullCond ? bullColor : noneColor)
)
plotshape(
DivergenceShowInput ? bullCond ? osc : na : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Regular Bullish Label",
text=" Bull ",
style=shape.labelup,
location=location.absolute,
color=bullColor,
textcolor=textColor
)
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Hidden Bullish
// Osc: Lower Low
oscLL = osc < ta.valuewhen(plFound, osc , 1) and _inRange(plFound )
// Price: Higher Low
priceHL = low > ta.valuewhen(plFound, low , 1)
hiddenBullCond = plotHiddenBullInput and priceHL and oscLL and plFound
plot(
plFound ? osc : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Hidden Bullish",
linewidth=2,
color=(hiddenBullCond ? hiddenBullColor : noneColor)
)
plotshape(
DivergenceShowInput ? hiddenBullCond ? osc : na : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Hidden Bullish Label",
text=" H Bull ",
style=shape.labelup,
location=location.absolute,
color=bullColor,
textcolor=textColor
)
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Regular Bearish
// Osc: Lower High
oscLH = osc < ta.valuewhen(phFound, osc , 1) and _inRange(phFound )
// Price: Higher High
priceHH = high > ta.valuewhen(phFound, high , 1)
bearCond = plotBearInput and priceHH and oscLH and phFound
plot(
phFound ? osc : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Regular Bearish",
linewidth=2,
color=(bearCond ? bearColor : noneColor)
)
plotshape(
DivergenceShowInput ? bearCond ? osc : na : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Regular Bearish Label",
text=" Bear ",
style=shape.labeldown,
location=location.absolute,
color=bearColor,
textcolor=textColor
)
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Hidden Bearish
// Osc: Higher High
oscHH = osc > ta.valuewhen(phFound, osc , 1) and _inRange(phFound )
// Price: Lower High
priceLH = high < ta.valuewhen(phFound, high , 1)
hiddenBearCond = plotHiddenBearInput and priceLH and oscHH and phFound
plot(
phFound ? osc : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Hidden Bearish",
linewidth=2,
color=(hiddenBearCond ? hiddenBearColor : noneColor)
)
plotshape(
DivergenceShowInput ? hiddenBearCond ? osc : na : na,
offset=-lbrInput,
title="Hidden Bearish Label",
text=" H Bear ",
style=shape.labeldown,
location=location.absolute,
color=bearColor,
textcolor=textColor
)
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Check RSI Lineup ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
bullTF = rsi > rsi and rsi > rsi
bearTF = rsi < rsi and rsi < rsi
bullTF1 = rsi1 > rsi1_1 and rsi1_1 > rsi1_2
bearTF1 = rsi1 < rsi1_1 and rsi1_1 < rsi1_2
bullTF2 = rsi2 > rsi2_1 and rsi2_1 > rsi2_2
bearTF2 = rsi2 < rsi2_1 and rsi2_1 < rsi2_2
bullTF3 = rsi3 > rsi3_1 and rsi3_1 > rsi3_2
bearTF3 = rsi3 < rsi3_1 and rsi3_1 < rsi3_2
bullTF4 = rsi4 > rsi4_1 and rsi4_1 > rsi4_2
bearTF4 = rsi4 < rsi4_1 and rsi4_1 < rsi4_2
bbTxt(bull,bear) =>
bull ? "BULLISH" : bear ? "BEARISCH" : 'NO LINEUP'
bbColor(bull,bear) =>
bull ? bullishColor : bear ? bearishColor : nomatchColor
newTC(tBox, col, row, txt, width, txtColor, bgColor, txtHA, txtSize) =>
table.cell(table_id=tBox,column=col, row=row, text=txt, width=width,text_color=txtColor,bgcolor=bgColor, text_halign=txtHA, text_size=txtSize)
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//--- Define RSI Table Setting ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
width_c0 = 0
width_c1 = 0
if rsiShowTable
var tBox = table.new(position=rsiTablePosition, columns=5, rows=6, bgcolor=color.rgb(18,22,33,50), frame_color=color.black, frame_width=1, border_color=color.black, border_width=1)
newTC(tBox, 0,1,"RSI Current",width_c0,color.orange,color.rgb(0,0,0,100),'right',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 1,1,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi),width_c0,vWhite,rsi < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 4,1,bbTxt(bullTF, bearTF),width_c0,vWhite,bbColor(bullTF, bearTF),'center',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowHist
newTC(tBox, 2,1,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi ),width_c0,vWhite,rsi < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 3,1,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi ),width_c0,vWhite,rsi < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowTF1
newTC(tBox, 0,2,TF2txt(rsiTF1),width_c0,vWhite,color.rgb(0,0,0,100),'right',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 1,2,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi1),width_c0,vWhite,rsi1 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 4,2,bbTxt(bullTF1, bearTF1),width_c0,vWhite,bbColor(bullTF1,bearTF1),'center',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowHist
newTC(tBox, 2,2,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi1_1),width_c0,vWhite,rsi1_1 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 3,2,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi1_2),width_c0,vWhite,rsi1_2 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowTF2
newTC(tBox, 0,3,TF2txt(rsiTF2),width_c0,vWhite,color.rgb(0,0,0,100),'right',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 1,3,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi2),width_c0,vWhite,rsi2 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 4,3,bbTxt(bullTF2, bearTF2),width_c0,vWhite,bbColor(bullTF2,bearTF2),'center',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowHist
newTC(tBox, 2,3,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi2_1),width_c0,vWhite,rsi2_1 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 3,3,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi2_2),width_c0,vWhite,rsi2_2 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowTF3
newTC(tBox, 0,4,TF2txt(rsiTF3),width_c0,vWhite,color.rgb(0,0,0,100),'right',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 1,4,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi3),width_c0,vWhite,rsi3 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 4,4,bbTxt(bullTF3, bearTF3),width_c0,vWhite,bbColor(bullTF3,bearTF3),'center',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowHist
newTC(tBox, 2,4,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi3_1),width_c0,vWhite,rsi3_1 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 3,4,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi3_2),width_c0,vWhite,rsi3_2 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowTF4
newTC(tBox, 0,5,TF2txt(rsiTF4),width_c0,vWhite,color.rgb(0,0,0,100),'right',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 1,5,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi4),width_c0,vWhite,rsi4 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 4,5,bbTxt(bullTF4, bearTF4),width_c0,vWhite,bbColor(bullTF4,bearTF4),'center',rsiTextSize)
if rsiShowHist
newTC(tBox, 2,5,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi4_1),width_c0,vWhite,rsi4_1 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
newTC(tBox, 3,5,str.format(" {0,number,#.##} ", rsi4_2),width_c0,vWhite,rsi4_2 < 50 ? bearishColor:bullishColor,'left',rsiTextSize)
//------------------------------------------------------
//--- Alerts -------------------------------------------
//------------------------------------------------------
High and low statisticsHigh/Low Pattern Analyzer (All Timeframes)
Ever wonder if there's a hidden pattern in the market?
Does the high of the week usually happen on a Tuesday?
Does the low of the month always form in the first week?
Which 15-minute candle really sets the high for the entire day?
This indicator is a powerful statistical tool designed to answer these questions by analyzing historical price action to find patterns in when the high and low of a period are formed.
The Core Idea: Daily High & Low of the Week
The simplest and most popular feature of this indicator is the "Daily high and low of the week" analysis.
What it does:
It looks back over your chosen number of weeks (e.g., the last 100) and finds out which day of the week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, etc.) made the final high and which day made the final low for each of those weeks.
How to use it:
Go to the script settings.
Enable the "Daily High/Low of the Week" module.
Set your chart to the 1D (Daily) timeframe.
A table will appear on your chart (bottom-right by default) showing the exact count and percentage for each day. This lets you see at a glance if there's a strong tendency for the market you're watching.
Advanced Analysis: Other Timeframes
This script goes far beyond just the daily chart. It includes four other independent analysis modules:
1. 4-Hour High/Low of the Week
What it does: For intraday and swing traders. This module finds which 4-hour candle session (e.g., the 08:00 candle, the 16:00 candle) tends to form the high or low of the entire week.
Key Feature (DST Aware): This table is "season-aware." It knows that the 08:00 "summertime" (DST) candle is the same trading session as the 07:00 "wintertime" (STD) candle. It groups them together so your data is never split or messy.
2. Weekly High/Low of the Month
What it does: For a monthly perspective. This module finds which week of the month (Week 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5) is most likely to form the monthly high or low.
How to use: Enable it and set your chart to the 1W (Weekly) timeframe.
3. Monthly High/Low of the Year
What it does: The ultimate "big picture" view. This module finds which month (Jan, Feb, Mar, etc.) most frequently forms the high or low for the entire year.
How to use: Enable it and set your chart to the 1M (Monthly) timeframe.
The Power User Module: Custom Timeframe Analysis
This is the most powerful feature. It lets you analyze any timeframe combination you want.
What it does: It finds out which "Lower Timeframe" (LTF) candle made the high or low of any "Higher Timeframe" (HTF) you choose.
Example: Do you want to know which 15-minute candle makes the Daily high?
Set your chart to the 15M timeframe.
Go to the "Custom Timeframe Analysis" settings.
Set the "Higher Timeframe" to "1D".
The script will draw a "season-aware" table (just like the 4H module) showing you the exact 15-minute candles (09:15, 09:30, etc.) that are statistically most likely to form the day's high or low.
Other Features
Show Labels: Each module has an option to "Show labels," which will draw a label (e.g., "Daily High of the Week") directly on the chart at the exact bar that made the high or low.
Custom Dividers: Each module has its own optional, color-customizable divider (e.g., weekly, monthly) that you can toggle on to see the periods more clearly.
Clean Settings: All modules are disabled by default (except for "Daily") to keep your chart clean. You only need to enable the specific analysis you want to see.
This tool was built to turn your curiosity about market patterns into actionable, statistical data. Enjoy!
Fish OrbThis indicator marks and tracks the first 15-minute range of the New York session open (default 9:30–9:45 AM ET) — a critical volatility period for futures like NQ (Nasdaq).
It helps you visually anchor intraday price action to that initial opening range.
Core Functionality
1. Opening Range Calculation
It measures the High, Low, and Midpoint of the first 15 minutes after the NY market opens (default 09:30–09:45 ET).
You can change the window or timezone in the inputs.
2. Visual Overlays
During the 15-minute window:
A teal shaded box highlights the open range period.
Live white lines mark the current High and Low.
A red line marks the midpoint (mid-range).
These update in real-time as each bar forms.
3. Post-Window Behavior
When the 15-minute window ends:
The High, Low, and Midpoint are locked in.
The indicator draws persistent horizontal lines for those values.
4. Historical Days
You can keep today + a set number of previous days (configurable via “Previous Days to Keep”).
Older days automatically delete to keep charts clean.
5. Line Extension Control
Each day’s lines extend to the right after they form.
You can toggle “Stop Lines at Next NY Open”:
ON: Yesterday’s lines stop exactly at the next NY session open (09:30 ET).
OFF: Lines extend indefinitely across the chart.
Moving Averages PowerMoving Averages Power — Trend + Normalized Strength
Lightweight indicator that plots up to 15 SMAs (5 → 4320) and shows a compact table with each MA’s:
Slope % (per-bar)
Trend (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral)
Normalized “Strength” bars comparable across MA lengths and, optionally, across timeframes via ATR%
Not financial advice. For research/education only.
What it does
Plots 15 SMA lines on the price chart
Colors match trend: Bullish (green), Bearish (red), Neutral (gray)
Bottom-right table: MA, Slope %, Trend, Strength bars
Strength normalization modes:
None: raw |slope%|
Length: scales by length relative to a reference length
ATR%: scales by volatility (ATR as % of price)
Length+ATR%: combines both for better cross-timeframe comparability
How it works (concepts)
Slope % per bar: 100 × (MA − MA ) / MA
Normalization:
None: S = |slope%|
Length: S = |slope%| × (length / normRefLen)
ATR%: S = |slope%| / ATR%, where ATR% = 100 × ATR(atrLen) / close
Length+ATR%: S = (|slope%| × (length / normRefLen)) / ATR%
Bars: floor(S / strengthStep), clamped to Max bars (default 10)
Notes:
normRefLen (default 240) keeps Length scaling stable across very short and very long MAs
In ATR modes, Strength shows blank until there’s enough history for ATR
How to use
Add the indicator to your chart (Indicators → search this title → Add).
Open Settings:
Show/hide any of the 15 SMAs
Choose Strength normalization mode
Tune Strength step, Max bars, Reference length, and ATR Length
Read the table:
MA: period
Slope %: per-bar percent change of the MA
Trend: green (bullish), red (bearish), gray (neutral)
Strength: more bars = stronger trend under the chosen normalization
Inputs (quick reference)
Display:
15 toggles: Show SMA 5 … Show SMA 4320
Strength Settings:
Strength normalization: None | Length | ATR% | Length+ATR%
Strength step (normalized units): sensitivity of bar count
Max bars: clamp for the bar count (default 10)
Normalization reference length: baseline for Length scaling (default 240)
ATR Length (for ATR%): ATR lookback used for ATR%
Text:
Label font size, Table font size
Line + label colors
Bullish (slope > 0): green
Bearish (slope < 0): red
Neutral (otherwise): gray
The MA lines, end-of-series labels, and table trend cell use the same colors
Recommended presets (examples)
Intraday (e.g., BTCUSD, 1h):
Strength normalization: Length+ATR%
normRefLen: 240
Strength step: 0.02–0.05
Max bars: 10
ATR Length: 14
Daily (e.g., AAPL, 1D):
Strength normalization: Length
normRefLen: 240–480
Strength step: 0.01–0.03
Max bars: 10
Calibration tips
Bars often at max (pegged)?
Increase Strength step (e.g., 0.01 → 0.03 → 0.05)
Or increase normRefLen (e.g., 240 → 480 → 720)
Bars too few?
Decrease Strength step (e.g., 0.02 → 0.01 → 0.005)
Or decrease normRefLen (e.g., 240 → 120)
Cross-timeframe comparability:
Prefer Length+ATR%; start with Strength step ≈ 0.02–0.05 and tune
Limitations
SMA only (no EMA/WMA/etc.)
Per-bar slope is inherently timeframe-sensitive; use ATR% or Length+ATR% for better cross-timeframe comparisons
ATR modes require atrLen bars; Strength shows blank until ready
The longest SMA (4320) needs sufficient chart history
Troubleshooting
Strength always looks maxed:
You might be on Length mode with a very small step; increase Strength step and/or use Length+ATR%; review normRefLen
Strength blank cells:
In ATR modes, wait for enough history (atrLen) or switch to Length mode
Table bounds:
The script manages rows internally; if you customize periods, ensure the total rows fit the 4×16 table
Compatibility
Pine Script v6
Works on most symbols/timeframes with adequate history
If you find this useful, consider leaving feedback with your preferred defaults (symbol/timeframe) so I can provide better presets.
Billionaire Gold ClubBillionaire Gold Club — Long-Term Gold Trend Follower
Overview
The Billionaire Gold Club indicator is designed for traders who follow the long-term bullish bias of Gold (XAU/USD).
It focuses only on BUY opportunities and encourages patience during market pullbacks.
The goal is to trade with the main trend, not against it.
Instructions
1. The script automatically plots 7MA (fast) and 200MA (slow).
2. When 7MA crosses above 200MA, a BUY signal appears.
3. When 7MA crosses below 200MA, a Standby signal appears — do not sell, just wait for the next BUY.
Usage Rules
• Recommended timeframe: 15-minute or higher.
• If used below 15 minutes, treat it as day trading — close trades within the same day.
• Focus on long-term holding and small lot sizes to protect your capital.
Signal Guide
🟢 BUY → Enter the trend direction.
🟠 Standby → Pause new entries and wait patiently.
Alerts
Set alerts to "Once per bar close":
• BUY Signal → Golden Cross confirmed.
• Standby Signal → Death Cross confirmed.
Philosophy
"Obey the rules, and your probability of success increases."
This system rewards patience, discipline, and long-term trend following.
Follow me for more TradingView scripts and updates.
Billionaire Gold Clubは、ゴールド（XAU/USD）の長期上昇トレンドに沿って取引するためのインジケーターです。
基本的にBUYのみを狙い、デッドクロス時はStandby（待機）状態として次のBUYを待ちます。
推奨時間軸：15分足以上。
15分未満で使用する場合はデイトレードとして同日中にクローズすることを推奨します。
ロットを小さく保ち、長期保有で安定した運用を目指してください。
MNQ Morning Indicator | Clean SignalsMNQ Morning Trading Indicator Summary
What It Does
This is a TradingView indicator designed for day trading MNQ (Micro Nasdaq-100 futures) during morning sessions. It generates BUY and SELL signals only when multiple technical conditions align, helping traders identify high-probability trade setups.
Core Strategy
BUY Signal Requirements (All must be true):
✅ Price above VWAP (volume-weighted average price)
✅ Fast EMA (9) above Slow EMA (21) - uptrend confirmation
✅ Price above 15-minute 50 EMA - higher timeframe confirmation
✅ MACD histogram positive - momentum confirmation
✅ RSI above 55 - strength confirmation
✅ ADX above 25 - trending market (not choppy)
✅ Volume 1.5x above average - strong participation
SELL Signal (opposite conditions)
Key Features
🎯 Risk Management
Stop Loss: 2× ATR (Average True Range)
Take Profit 1: 2× ATR (1:2 risk-reward)
Take Profit 2: 3× ATR (1:3 risk-reward)
Dollar values: Calculates P&L based on MNQ's $2/point value
⏰ Session Filter
Default: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM ET (customizable)
Safety feature: Avoids first 15 minutes (high volatility period)
Won't generate signals outside trading hours
🛡️ Signal Quality
Rates each signal: 🔥 STRONG, ⚡ MEDIUM, or ⚠️ WEAK
Requires minimum 15 bars between signals (prevents overtrading)
📊 Visual Dashboard
Shows real-time metrics:
ATR values
ADX (trend strength)
RSI (momentum)
Market condition (TREND/CHOP)
Session status
Volume status
Signal cooldown timer
Visual Elements
📈 VWAP with standard deviation bands (1σ, 2σ, 3σ)
📉 Multiple EMAs with trend-based coloring
🟢/🔴 Buy/Sell arrows on chart
📋 Detailed trade labels showing entry, SL, TPs, and risk-reward ratios
🎨 Background highlighting for market conditions
Safety Features
Cooldown period between signals
Session restrictions (no trading outside set hours)
First 15-minute avoidance (post-open volatility)
Multi-confirmation requirement (all 7 conditions must align)
Trend filter (ADX minimum to avoid choppy markets)
Best For
Day traders focused on morning sessions
MNQ futures traders
Traders who prefer systematic, rule-based entries
Those wanting pre-calculated risk management levels
Customization
All parameters are adjustable:
EMA periods
MACD settings
RSI thresholds
ADX minimum
ATR multipliers
Session times
Visual preferences
This indicator is designed to be conservative — it waits for strong confirmation before signaling, which means fewer but potentially higher-quality trades.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
References
Ang, A. (2014) *Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing*. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Ang, A., Piazzesi, M. and Wei, M. (2006) 'What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?', *Journal of Econometrics*, 131(1-2), pp. 359-403.
Asness, C.S. (2003) 'Fight the Fed Model', *The Journal of Portfolio Management*, 30(1), pp. 11-24.
Asness, C.S., Moskowitz, T.J. and Pedersen, L.H. (2013) 'Value and Momentum Everywhere', *The Journal of Finance*, 68(3), pp. 929-985.
Baker, M. and Wurgler, J. (2006) 'Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns', *The Journal of Finance*, 61(4), pp. 1645-1680.
Baker, M. and Wurgler, J. (2007) 'Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market', *Journal of Economic Perspectives*, 21(2), pp. 129-152.
Baur, D.G. and Lucey, B.M. (2010) 'Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold', *Financial Review*, 45(2), pp. 217-229.
Bollerslev, T. (1986) 'Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity', *Journal of Econometrics*, 31(3), pp. 307-327.
Boudoukh, J., Michaely, R., Richardson, M. and Roberts, M.R. (2007) 'On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing', *The Journal of Finance*, 62(2), pp. 877-915.
Brinson, G.P., Hood, L.R. and Beebower, G.L. (1986) 'Determinants of Portfolio Performance', *Financial Analysts Journal*, 42(4), pp. 39-44.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J. and LeBaron, B. (1992) 'Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns', *The Journal of Finance*, 47(5), pp. 1731-1764.
Calmar, T.W. (1991) 'The Calmar Ratio', *Futures*, October issue.
Campbell, J.Y. and Shiller, R.J. (1988) 'The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors', *Review of Financial Studies*, 1(3), pp. 195-228.
Cochrane, J.H. (2011) 'Presidential Address: Discount Rates', *The Journal of Finance*, 66(4), pp. 1047-1108.
Damodaran, A. (2012) *Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications*. Working Paper, Stern School of Business.
Engle, R.F. (1982) 'Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation', *Econometrica*, 50(4), pp. 987-1007.
Estrella, A. and Hardouvelis, G.A. (1991) 'The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity', *The Journal of Finance*, 46(2), pp. 555-576.
Estrella, A. and Mishkin, F.S. (1998) 'Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators', *Review of Economics and Statistics*, 80(1), pp. 45-61.
Faber, M.T. (2007) 'A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation', *The Journal of Wealth Management*, 9(4), pp. 69-79.
Fama, E.F. and French, K.R. (1989) 'Business Conditions and Expected Returns on Stocks and Bonds', *Journal of Financial Economics*, 25(1), pp. 23-49.
Fama, E.F. and French, K.R. (1992) 'The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns', *The Journal of Finance*, 47(2), pp. 427-465.
Garman, M.B. and Klass, M.J. (1980) 'On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data', *Journal of Business*, 53(1), pp. 67-78.
Gilchrist, S. and Zakrajšek, E. (2012) 'Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations', *American Economic Review*, 102(4), pp. 1692-1720.
Gordon, M.J. (1962) *The Investment, Financing, and Valuation of the Corporation*. Homewood: Irwin.
Graham, B. and Dodd, D.L. (1934) *Security Analysis*. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Hamilton, J.D. (1989) 'A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle', *Econometrica*, 57(2), pp. 357-384.
Ilmanen, A. (2011) *Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards*. Chichester: Wiley.
Jaconetti, C.M., Kinniry, F.M. and Zilbering, Y. (2010) 'Best Practices for Portfolio Rebalancing', *Vanguard Research Paper*.
Jegadeesh, N. and Titman, S. (1993) 'Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency', *The Journal of Finance*, 48(1), pp. 65-91.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979) 'Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk', *Econometrica*, 47(2), pp. 263-292.
Korteweg, A. (2010) 'The Net Benefits to Leverage', *The Journal of Finance*, 65(6), pp. 2137-2170.
Lo, A.W. and MacKinlay, A.C. (1990) 'Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models', *Review of Financial Studies*, 3(3), pp. 431-467.
Longin, F. and Solnik, B. (2001) 'Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets', *The Journal of Finance*, 56(2), pp. 649-676.
Mandelbrot, B. (1963) 'The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices', *The Journal of Business*, 36(4), pp. 394-419.
Markowitz, H. (1952) 'Portfolio Selection', *The Journal of Finance*, 7(1), pp. 77-91.
Modigliani, F. and Miller, M.H. (1961) 'Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares', *The Journal of Business*, 34(4), pp. 411-433.
Moreira, A. and Muir, T. (2017) 'Volatility-Managed Portfolios', *The Journal of Finance*, 72(4), pp. 1611-1644.
Moskowitz, T.J., Ooi, Y.H. and Pedersen, L.H. (2012) 'Time Series Momentum', *Journal of Financial Economics*, 104(2), pp. 228-250.
Parkinson, M. (1980) 'The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return', *Journal of Business*, 53(1), pp. 61-65.
Piotroski, J.D. (2000) 'Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers', *Journal of Accounting Research*, 38, pp. 1-41.
Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S. (2009) *This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly*. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Ross, S.A. (1976) 'The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing', *Journal of Economic Theory*, 13(3), pp. 341-360.
Roy, A.D. (1952) 'Safety First and the Holding of Assets', *Econometrica*, 20(3), pp. 431-449.
Schwert, G.W. (1989) 'Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?', *The Journal of Finance*, 44(5), pp. 1115-1153.
Sharpe, W.F. (1966) 'Mutual Fund Performance', *The Journal of Business*, 39(1), pp. 119-138.
Sharpe, W.F. (1994) 'The Sharpe Ratio', *The Journal of Portfolio Management*, 21(1), pp. 49-58.
Simon, D.P. and Wiggins, R.A. (2001) 'S&P Futures Returns and Contrary Sentiment Indicators', *Journal of Futures Markets*, 21(5), pp. 447-462.
Taleb, N.N. (2007) *The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable*. New York: Random House.
Whaley, R.E. (2000) 'The Investor Fear Gauge', *The Journal of Portfolio Management*, 26(3), pp. 12-17.
Whaley, R.E. (2009) 'Understanding the VIX', *The Journal of Portfolio Management*, 35(3), pp. 98-105.
Yardeni, E. (2003) 'Stock Valuation Models', *Topical Study*, 51, Yardeni Research.
Zweig, M.E. (1973) 'An Investor Expectations Stock Price Predictive Model Using Closed-End Fund Premiums', *The Journal of Finance*, 28(1), pp. 67-78.
dabilThe strategy is probably to go short or long with the trend depending on the case, but if all time units 1 minute then 3 minutes then 5 minutes then 15 minutes then 1 hour all show the same direction, but first the 1 hour must be bullish in which the 1 hour candle closes above the previous one, for example if the trend is bearish then the market wants to change direction, then a 1 hour bullish close must then be followed by a 1 hour bearish close below the bullish candle, then another bullish candle must shoot above the previous bullish candle, then 15 minutes also shoot above the previous 15 bullish candles, then 1 and 2...3.5. Then I can rise with the market by only covering the last 15 bullish candles with my stop loss, if my SL is 50 pips then I want 100 pips and then I'm out.
Yelober - Market Internal direction+ Key levelsYelober – Market Internals + Key Levels is a focused intraday trading tool that helps you spot high-probability price direction by anchoring decisions to structure that matters: yesterday’s RTH High/Low, today’s pre-market High/Low, and a fast Value Area/POC from the prior session. Paired with a compact market internals dashboard (NYSE/NASDAQ UVOL vs. DVOL ratios, VOLD slopes, TICK/TICKQ momentum, and optional VIX trend), it gives you a real-time read on breadth so you can choose which direction to trade, when to enter (breaks, retests, or fades at PMH/PML/VAH/VAL/POC), and how to plan exits as internals confirm or deteriorate. On top of these intraday decision benefits, it also allows traders—in a very subtle but powerful way—to keep an eye on the VIX and immediately recognize significant spikes or sharp decreases that should be factored in before entering a trade, or used as a quick signal to modify an existing position. In short: clear levels for the chart, live internals for the context, and a smarter, rules-based path to execution.
# Yelober – Market Internals + Key Levels
*A TradingView indicator for session key levels + real‑time market internals (NYSE/NASDAQ TICK, UVOL/DVOL/VOLD, and VIX).*
**Script name in Pine:** `Yelober - Market Internal direction+ Key levels` (Pine v6)
---
## 1) What this indicator does
**Purpose:** Help intraday traders quickly find high‑probability reaction zones and read market internals momentum without switching charts. It overlays yesterday/today’s **automatic price levels** on your active chart and shows a **market breadth table** that summarizes NYSE/NASDAQ buying pressure and TICK direction, with an optional VIX trend read.
### Key features at a glance
* **Automatic Price Levels (overlay on chart)**
* Yesterday’s High/Low of Day (**yHoD**, **yLoD**)
* Extended Hours High/Low (**yEHH**, **yEHL**) across yesterday AH + today pre‑market
* Today’s Pre‑Market High/Low (**PMH**, **PML**)
* Yesterday’s **Value Area High/Low** (**VAH/VAL**) and **Point of Control (POC)** computed from a volume profile of yesterday’s **regular session**
* Smart de‑duplication:
* Shows **only the higher** of (yEHH vs PMH) and **only the lower** of (yEHL vs PML) to avoid redundant bands
* **Market Breadth Table (on‑chart table)**
* **NYSE ratio** = UVOL/DVOL (signed) with **VOLD slope** from session open
* **NASDAQ ratio** = UVOLQ/DVOLQ (signed) with **VOLDQ slope** from session open
* **TICK** and **TICKQ**: live cumulative ratio and short‑term slope
* **VIX** (optional): current value + slope over a configurable lookback/timeframe
* Color‑coded trends with sensible thresholds and optional normalization
---
## 2) How to use it (trader workflow)
1. **Mark your reaction zones**
* Watch **yHoD/yLoD**, **PMH/PML**, and **VAH/VAL/POC** for first touches, break/retest, and failure tests.
* Expect increased responsiveness when multiple levels cluster (e.g., PMH ≈ VAH ≈ daily pivot).
2. **Read the breadth panel for context**
* **NYSE/NASDAQ ratio** (>1 = more up‑volume than down‑volume; <−1 = down‑dominant). Strong green across both favors long setups; red favors short setups.
* **VOLD slopes** (NYSE & NASDAQ): positive and accelerating → broadening participation; negative → persistent pressure.
* **TICK/TICKQ**: cumulative ratio and **slope arrows** (↗ / ↘ / →). Use the slope to gauge **near‑term thrust or fade**.
* **VIX slope**: rising VIX (red) often coincides with risk‑off; falling VIX (green) with risk‑on.
3. **Confluence = higher confidence**
* Example: Price reclaims **PMH** while **NYSE/NASDAQ ratios** print green and **TICK slopes** point ↗ — consider break‑and‑go; if VIX slope is ↘, that adds risk‑on confidence.
* Example: Price rejects **VAH** while **VOLD slopes** roll negative and VIX ↗ — consider fade/reversal.
4. **Risk management**
* Place stops just beyond key levels tested; if breadth flips, tighten or exit.
> **Timeframes:** Works best on 1–15m charts for intraday. Value Area is computed from **yesterday’s RTH**; choose a smaller calculation timeframe (e.g., 5–15m) for stable profiles.
---
## 3) Inputs & settings (what each option controls)
### Global Style
* **Enable all automatic price levels**: master toggle for yHoD/yLoD, yEHH/yEHL, PMH/PML, VAH/VAL/POC.
* **Line style/width**: applies to all drawn levels.
* **Label size/style** and **label color linking**: use the same color as the line or override with a global label color.
* **Maximum bars lookback**: how far the script scans to build yesterday metrics (performance‑sensitive).
### Value Area / Volume Profile
* **Enable Value Area calculations** *(on by default)*: computes yesterday’s **POC**, **VAH**, **VAL** from a simplified intraday volume profile built from yesterday’s **regular session bars**.
* **Max Volume Profile Points** *(default 50)*: lower values = faster; higher = more precise.
* **Value Area Calculation Timeframe** *(default 15)*: the security timeframe used when collecting yesterday’s highs/lows/volumes.
### Individual Level Toggles & Colors
* **yHoD / yLoD** (yesterday high/low)
* **yEHH / yEHL** (yesterday AH + today pre‑market extremes)
* **PMH / PML** (today pre‑market extremes)
* **VAH / VAL / POC** (yesterday RTH value area + point of control)
### Market Breadth Panel
* **Show NYSE / NASDAQ / VIX**: choose which series to display in the table.
* **Table Position / Size / Background Color**: UI placement and legibility.
* **Slope Averaging Periods** *(default 5)*: number of recent TICK/TICKQ ratio points used in slope calculation.
* **Candles for Rate** *(default 10)* & **Normalize Rate**: VIX slope calculation as % change between `now` and `n` candles ago; normalize divides by `n`.
* **VIX Timeframe**: optionally compute VIX on a higher TF (e.g., 15, 30, 60) for a smoother regime read.
* **Volume Normalization** (NYSE & NASDAQ): display VOLD slopes scaled to `tens/thousands/millions/10th millions` for readable magnitudes; color thresholds adapt to your choice.
---
## 4) Data sources & definitions
* **UVOL/VOLD (NYSE)** and **UVOLQ/DVOLQ/VOLDQ (NASDAQ)** via `request.security()`
* **Ratio** = `UVOL/DVOL` (signed; negative when down‑volume dominates)
* **VOLD slope** ≈ `(VOLD_now − VOLD_open) / bars_since_open`, then normalized per your setting
* **TICK/TICKQ**: cumulative sum of prints this session with **positives vs negatives ratio**, plus a simple linear regression **slope** of the last `N` ratio values
* **VIX**: value and slope across a user‑selected timeframe and lookback
* **Sessions (EST/EDT)**
* **Regular:** 09:30–16:00
* **Pre‑Market:** 04:00–09:30
* **After Hours:** 16:00–20:00
* **Extended‑hours extremes** combine **yesterday AH** + **today PM**
> **Note:** All session checks are done with TradingView’s `time(…,"America/New_York")` context. If your broker’s RTH differs (e.g., futures), adjust expectations accordingly.
---
## 5) How the algorithms work (plain English)
### A) Key Levels
* **Yesterday’s RTH High/Low**: scans yesterday’s bars within 09:30–16:00 and records the extremes + bar indices.
* **Extended Hours**: scans yesterday AH and today PM to get **yEHH/yEHL**. Script shows **either yEHH or PMH** (whichever is **higher**) and **either yEHL or PML** (whichever is **lower**) to avoid duplicate bands stacked together.
* **Value Area & POC (RTH only)**
* Build a coarse volume profile with `Max Volume Profile Points` buckets across the price range formed by yesterday’s RTH bars.
* Distribute each bar’s volume uniformly across the buckets it spans (fast approximation to keep Pine within execution limits).
* **POC** = bucket with max volume. **VA** expands from POC outward until **70%** of cumulative volume is enclosed → yields **VAH/VAL**.
### B) Market Breadth Table
* **NYSE/NASDAQ Ratio**: signed UVOL/DVOL with basic coloring.
* **VOLD Slopes**: from session open to current, normalized to human‑readable units; colors flip green/red based on thresholds that map to your normalization setting (e.g., ±2M for NYSE, ±3.5×10M for NASDAQ).
* **TICK/TICKQ Slope**: linear regression over the last `N` ratio points → **↗ / → / ↘** with the rounded slope value.
* **VIX Slope**: % change between now and `n` candles ago (optionally divided by `n`). Red when rising beyond threshold; green when falling.
---
## 6) Recommended presets
* **Stocks (liquid, intraday)**
* Value Area **ON**, `Max Volume Points` = **40–60**, **Timeframe** = **5–15**
* Breadth: show **NYSE & NASDAQ & VIX**, `Slope periods` = **5–8**, `Candles for rate` = **10–20**, **Normalize VIX** = **ON**
* **Index futures / very high‑volume symbols**
* If you see Pine timeouts, set `Max Volume Points` = **20–40** or temporarily **disable Value Area**.
* Keep breadth panel **ON** (it’s light). Consider **VIX timeframe = 15/30** for regime clarity.
---
## 7) Tips, edge cases & performance
* **Performance:** The volume profile is capped (`maxBarsToProcess ≤ 500` and bucketed) to keep it responsive. If you experience slowdowns, reduce `Max Volume Points`, `Maximum bars lookback`, or disable Value Area.
* **Redundant lines:** The script **intentionally suppresses** PMH/PML when yEHH/yEHL are more extreme, and vice‑versa.
* **Label visibility:** Use `Label style = none` if you only want clean lines and read values from the right‑end labels.
* **Futures/RTH differences:** Value Area is from **yesterday’s RTH** only; for 24h instruments the RTH period may not reflect overnight structure.
* **Session transitions:** PMH/PML tracking stops as soon as RTH starts; values persist as static levels for the session.
---
## 8) Known limitations
* Uses public TradingView symbols: `UVOL`, `VOLD`, `UVOLQ`, `DVOLQ`, `VOLDQ`, `TICK`, `TICKQ`, `VIX`. If your data plan or region limits any symbol, the corresponding table rows may show `na`.
* The VA/POC approximation assumes uniform distribution of each bar’s volume across its high–low. That’s fast but not a tick‑level profile.
* Works best on US equities with standard NY session; alternative sessions may need code changes.
---
## 9) Troubleshooting
* **“Script is too slow / timed out”** → Lower `Max Volume Points`, lower `Maximum bars lookback`, or toggle **OFF** `Enable Value Area calculations` for that instrument.
* **Missing breadth values** → Ensure the symbols above load on your account; try reloading chart or switching timeframes once.
* **Overlapping labels** → Set `Label style = none` or reduce label size.
---
## 10) Version / license / contribution
* **Version:** Initial public release (Pine v6).
* **Author:** © yelober
* **License:** Free for community use and enhancement. Please keep author credit.
* **Contributing:** Open PRs/ideas: presets, alert conditions, multi‑day VA composites, optional mid‑value (`(VAH+VAL)/2`), session filter for futures, and alertable state machine for breadth regime transitions.
---
## 11) Quick start (TL;DR)
1. Add the indicator and **keep default settings**.
2. Trade **reactions** at yHoD/yLoD/PMH/PML/VAH/VAL/POC.
3. Use the **breadth table**: look for **green ratios + ↗ slopes** (risk‑on) or **red ratios + ↘ slopes** (risk‑off). Check **VIX** slope for confirmation.
4. Manage risk around levels; when breadth flips against you, tighten or exit.
---
### Changelog (public)
* **v1.0:** First community release with automatic RTH levels, VA/POC approximation, breadth dashboard (NYSE/NASDAQ/TICK/TICKQ/VIX) with normalization and adaptive color thresholds.
Trading Macro Windows by BW v2
Trading Macros by BW: Integrating ICT Concepts for Session Analysis
This indicator combines two key Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concepts—Change in State of Delivery (CISD) or Inverted Fair Value Gap (IFVG) signals with Macro Time Windows—to provide a unified tool for analyzing intraday price action, particularly during Pacific Time (PT) sessions. Rather than simply merging existing scripts, this integration creates a cohesive visual framework that highlights how macro consolidation periods interact with potential reversal or continuation signals like CISD or IFVG. By overlaying macro candle styling and borders on the chart alongside selectable signal lines, traders can better contextualize setups within ICT's macro narrative, where price often manipulates liquidity during these windows before displacing toward higher-timeframe objectives.
Core Components and How They Work Together:
Macro Time Windows (Inspired by ICT's Macro Periods):
ICT emphasizes "macro" as 30-minute windows (e.g., 06:45–07:15 PT, 07:45–08:15 PT, up to 11:45–12:15 PT) where price tends to consolidate, sweep liquidity, or form key structures like Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). These periods set the stage for the session's directional bias.
The indicator styles candles within these windows using a user-defined color for wicks, borders, and bodies (translucent for visibility). This visual emphasis helps traders focus on activity inside macros, where reversals or continuations often originate.
Borders are drawn as vertical lines at the start and end of each window (with a +5 minute buffer to capture related activity), using a dotted style by default. This creates a "study zone" that encapsulates macro events, allowing traders to assess if price is respecting or violating these zones in alignment with broader ICT models like the Power of 3 (AMD cycle).
Toggle: "Macro Candles Enabled" (default: true) – Turn off to disable styling and borders if focusing solely on signals.
CISD or IFVG Signals (Selectable Mode):
Mode Selection: Choose between "Change in the State of Delivery" (CISD) or "IFVG" (default: IFVG). Both detect shifts in market delivery during specific 30-minute slices (15–45 or 17–45 minutes past the hour in PT sessions).
CISD Mode: Based on ICT's definition of a sudden directional shift, this identifies aggressive displacements after sweeping recent highs/lows. It uses a rolling reference high/low over 6 bars, checks for sweeps (penetrating by at least 2 ticks in the last 2-3 bars), reclamation (closing beyond the reference with at least 50% body), and displacement (50% of prior range or an immediate FVG of 6+ ticks). Signals plot a horizontal line from the close, extending 24 bars right, labeled "CISD."
IFVG Mode: Focuses on Inverted Fair Value Gaps, where a bullish FVG (low > high by 13+ ticks) forms but is inverted (closed below) in the same slice, signaling bearish intent (or vice versa). This targets violations against opposing liquidity, often leading to raids on external ranges. Signals plot similarly, labeled "IFVG."
Shared Logic: Both modes enforce a 55-bar cooldown to prevent clustering, operate only during PT sessions (06:30–13:00), and use tick-based thresholds for precision across instruments. The integration with macros allows traders to see if signals occur within or at the edges of macro windows, enhancing confirmation—for example, a CISD inside a macro might indicate a manipulated reversal toward the session's true objective.
Toggle: "Signals Enabled" (default: true) – Turn off to hide all signal lines and labels, isolating the macro visualization.
How Components Interact:
Macro windows provide the "narrative context" (consolidation/manipulation), while CISD/IFVG signals detect the "delivery shift" (displacement). Together, they form a mashup that justifies publication: isolated signals can be noisy, but when filtered by macro periods, they align with ICT's session model. For instance, an IFVG inversion during a macro might confirm a liquidity sweep before targeting PD arrays or order blocks.
No external dependencies; all calculations are self-contained using Pine's built-in functions like ta.highest/lowest for references and time-based sessions for windows.
Usage Guidelines:
Apply to intraday charts (e.g., 1-5 min) or stocks during PT hours.
Look for confluence: A bull IFVG signal post-macro low sweep might target the next macro high or daily bias.
Customize colors/styles for signals (solid/dashed/dotted lines) and macros to suit your chart.
Backtest in replay mode to observe how macros frame signals—e.g., price often respects macro borders as S/R.
Limitations: Timezone-fixed to PT (America/Los_Angeles); signals are directional hints, not trade entries. Combine with ICT tools like order blocks or liquidity pools for full setups.
This script draws from community ICT implementations but refines them into a single, purpose-built tool for macro-driven trading, reducing chart clutter while emphasizing interconnected concepts. Feedback welcome!
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
