Close-Only Market StructureDYOR NFA
Function of the Close-Only Market Structure Script
The script is a custom indicator designed to display the market's structural trend based only on closing prices, ignoring price wicks (highs and lows) to focus on conviction.
pivotLengthInt Input: This user setting controls the sensitivity of the structure detection. It determines how many bars to look left and right to define a swing point (e.g., a setting of 5 means a bar's close must be the highest/lowest of the 5 preceding and 5 succeeding bars).
Swing Point Identification (SH/SL): It uses the ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() functions on the close price series to define Swing Highs (SH) and Swing Lows (SL).
Structure Tracking (structureType): It compares the most recent confirmed SH and SL against the immediately preceding ones (prevSH and prevSL) to classify the trend as one of the following four states:
HH (Higher High, Higher Low): Strong Uptrend
LL (Lower High, Lower Low): Strong Downtrend
HL/LH: Complex structure, consolidation, or reversal zones.
Structure Lines: It plots two continuous stepped lines (lastSH and lastSL) that hold the price of the most recent confirmed swing points, visually defining the current structure boundaries.
BOS Detection (Break of Structure): It identifies and plots a marker (BOS) when the current bar's close definitively breaks (closes above) the lastSH or closes below the lastSL, signaling a continuation of the trend or a major structural change.
Visual Confirmation:
Plots small SH/SL labels at the confirmed swing points.
Plots small HH/HL/LH/LL labels at the swing points to show the confirmed structural state.
Applies a light background color (green for bullish/ranging-up, red for bearish/ranging-down) for an at-a-glance view of the bias.
Alerts: It provides conditions for setting up notifications when a Bullish BOS or Bearish BOS occurs.
🚀 How to Use the Script
Open TradingView: Go to the chart where you want to apply the indicator.
Open Pine Editor: Click the Pine Editor tab at the bottom of the screen.
Paste and Save:
Copy the final, corrected Pine Script code.
Delete any existing code in the editor and paste the new code.
Click the Save button (or name the script) and then click Add to Chart.
Adjust Settings:
On the chart, hover over the indicator name ("Close-MS v6") and click the Gear Icon (Settings).
Pivot Lookback (L&R): Change this value to adjust sensitivity:
Smaller number (e.g., 3): More swings detected, structure changes faster, more noise.
Larger number (e.g., 10): Fewer swings detected, structure is more significant, less noise (recommended for higher timeframes).
Interpret the Chart:
The Red Stepped Line shows your current resistance (SH).
The Green Stepped Line shows your current support (SL).
Green Background: General bullish bias (making Higher Highs/Lows).
Red Background: General bearish bias (making Lower Highs/Lows).
BOS Triangle: Signals that the price has closed and validated a break of the previous structural high or low.
Set Alerts (Optional):
Click the Alert button (bell icon) on the TradingView toolbar.
Set the Condition to the indicator ("Close-MS v6").
Select the specific Alert Condition you want to monitor (e.g., "Bullish BOS" or "Bearish BOS").
Tìm kiếm tập lệnh với "bias"
Iani Indicator 📊 **Iani Indicator**
**Clean and simple trend direction tool**
**Description:**
Iani Indicator is a compact and easy-to-read visual tool based on EMA crossovers to identify market bias: **Buy, Sell, or Neutral**.
* The background between EMAs shows the current trend:
🟩 **Green** – bullish trend (Buy)
🟥 **Red** – bearish trend (Sell)
🟨 **Yellow** – flat / neutral zone
* Text labels “Buy”, “Sell”, or “Neutral” appear automatically when direction changes.
* Works smoothly on any timeframe – ideal for both scalping and swing trading.
**Purpose:**
To give traders a clear, noise-free view of market direction at a glance.
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👉 Short version (for TradingView “Short Description” field):
**Simple EMA-based indicator showing Buy, Sell, or Neutral bias with clean background colors.**
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Market Structure (BOS on Break, HH/HL/LH/LL)Market Structure (BOS on Break, HH/HL/LH/LL) is a clean and reactive market structure tool designed for traders who want clear visual feedback of trend direction and structure changes.
It automatically identifies:
Higher Highs (HH)
Higher Lows (HL)
Lower Highs (LH)
Lower Lows (LL)
Breaks of Structure (BOS) when price breaches previous swing levels.
✳️ Features
Automatic Structure Detection: Detects swing highs/lows based on your left/right pivot settings.
Break of Structure Alerts: Instantly updates bias when price breaks a previous swing level (no delay).
Real-Time BOS Response: Structure flips as soon as price takes out the previous high or low.
Color-Coded Bars: Bars can auto-paint white for bullish and black for bearish conditions.
Optional Fading Dots: Visual fading dots track trend duration and strength for quick bias reading.
Customizable Pivots: Choose how many bars to use for left/right swing confirmation.
Alerts: Fully configured for HH, HL, LH, LL, BOS Up, and BOS Down events.
⚙️ Inputs
Left Pivot Bars / Right Pivot Bars: Control how many candles define a valid swing point.
Paint Bars by Trend: Toggle bar coloring to match bullish or bearish bias.
Show Fading Trend Dots: Add fading dots that shrink and fade as a trend matures.
🔔 Alerts
Break of Structure Up / Down
Higher High (HH) confirmed
Higher Low (HL) confirmed
Lower High (LH) confirmed
Lower Low (LL) confirmed
🎯 Use Case
Perfect for:
Price action traders
Smart money concept (SMC) practitioners
Trend structure analysts
Scalpers and swing traders looking for quick structure flips.
🧠 Notes
Works on any timeframe and any instrument.
BOS signals update immediately when price breaks structure (no lag).
For additional BOS markers, you can uncomment the last few lines in the script to show arrows when structure breaks.
ATR Future Movement Range Projection
The "ATR Future Movement Range Projection" is a custom TradingView Pine Script indicator designed to forecast potential price ranges for a stock (or any asset) over short-term (1-month) and medium-term (3-month) horizons. It leverages the Average True Range (ATR) as a measure of volatility to estimate how far the price might move, while incorporating recent momentum bias based on the proportion of bullish (green) vs. bearish (red) candles. This creates asymmetric projections: in bullish periods, the upside range is larger than the downside, and vice versa.
The indicator is overlaid on the chart, plotting horizontal lines for the projected high and low prices for both timeframes. Additionally, it displays a small table in the top-right corner summarizing the projected prices and the percentage change required from the current close to reach them. This makes it useful for traders assessing potential targets, risk-reward ratios, or option strategies, as it combines volatility forecasting with directional sentiment.
Key features:
- **Volatility Basis**: Uses weekly ATR to derive a stable daily volatility estimate, avoiding noise from shorter timeframes.
- **Momentum Adjustment**: Analyzes recent candle colors to tilt projections toward the prevailing trend (e.g., more upside if more green candles).
- **Time Horizons**: Fixed at 1 month (21 trading days) and 3 months (63 trading days), assuming ~21 trading days per month (excluding weekends/holidays).
- **User Adjustable**: The ATR length/lookback (default 50) can be tweaked via inputs.
- **Visuals**: Green/lime lines for highs, red/orange for lows; a semi-transparent table for quick reference.
- **Limitations**: This is a probabilistic projection based on historical volatility and momentum—it doesn't predict direction with certainty and assumes volatility persists. It ignores external factors like news, earnings, or market regimes. Best used on daily charts for stocks/ETFs.
The indicator doesn't generate buy/sell signals but helps visualize "expected" ranges, similar to how implied volatility informs option pricing.
### How It Works Step-by-Step
The script executes on each bar update (typically daily timeframe) and follows this logic:
1. **Input Configuration**:
- ATR Length (Lookback): Default 50 bars. This controls both the ATR calculation period and the candle count window. You can adjust it in the indicator settings.
2. **Calculate Weekly ATR**:
- Fetches the ATR from the weekly timeframe using `request.security` with a length of 50 weeks.
- ATR measures average price range (high-low, adjusted for gaps), representing volatility.
3. **Derive Daily ATR**:
- Divides the weekly ATR by 5 (approximating 5 trading days per week) to get an equivalent daily volatility estimate.
- Example: If weekly ATR is $5, daily ATR ≈ $1.
4. **Define Projection Periods**:
- 1 Month: 21 trading days.
- 3 Months: 63 trading days (21 × 3).
- These are hardcoded but based on standard trading calendar assumptions.
5. **Compute Base Projections**:
- Base projection = Daily ATR × Days in period.
- This gives the total expected movement (range) without direction: e.g., for 3 months, $1 daily ATR × 63 = $63 total range.
6. **Analyze Candle Momentum (Win Rate)**:
- Counts green candles (close > open) and red candles (close < open) over the last 50 bars (ignores dojis where close == open).
- Total colored candles = green + red.
- Win rate = green / total colored (as a fraction, e.g., 0.7 for 70%). Defaults to 0.5 if no colored candles.
- This acts as a simple momentum proxy: higher win rate implies bullish bias.
7. **Adjust Projections Asymmetrically**:
- Upside projection = Base projection × Win rate.
- Downside projection = Base projection × (1 - Win rate).
- This skews the range: e.g., 70% win rate means 70% of the total range allocated to upside, 30% to downside.
8. **Calculate Projected Prices**:
- High = Current close + Upside projection.
- Low = Current close - Downside projection.
- Done separately for 1M and 3M.
9. **Plot Lines**:
- 3M High: Solid green line.
- 3M Low: Solid red line.
- 1M High: Dashed lime line.
- 1M Low: Dashed orange line.
- Lines extend horizontally from the current bar onward.
10. **Display Table**:
- A 3-column table (Projection, Price, % Change) in the top-right.
- Rows for 1M High/Low and 3M High/Low, color-coded.
- % Change = ((Projected price - Close) / Close) × 100.
- Updates dynamically with new data.
The entire process repeats on each new bar, so projections evolve as volatility and momentum change.
### Examples
Here are two hypothetical examples using the indicator on a daily chart. Assume it's applied to a stock like AAPL, but with made-up data for illustration. (In TradingView, you'd add the script to see real outputs.)
#### Example 1: Bullish Scenario (High Win Rate)
- Current Close: $150.
- Weekly ATR (50 periods): $10 → Daily ATR: $10 / 5 = $2.
- Last 50 Candles: 35 green, 15 red → Total colored: 50 → Win Rate: 35/50 = 0.7 (70%).
- Base Projections:
- 1M: $2 × 21 = $42.
- 3M: $2 × 63 = $126.
- Adjusted Projections:
- 1M Upside: $42 × 0.7 = $29.4 → High: $150 + $29.4 = $179.4 (+19.6%).
- 1M Downside: $42 × 0.3 = $12.6 → Low: $150 - $12.6 = $137.4 (-8.4%).
- 3M Upside: $126 × 0.7 = $88.2 → High: $150 + $88.2 = $238.2 (+58.8%).
- 3M Downside: $126 × 0.3 = $37.8 → Low: $150 - $37.8 = $112.2 (-25.2%).
- On the Chart: Green/lime lines skewed higher; table shows bullish % changes (e.g., +58.8% for 3M high).
- Interpretation: Suggests stronger potential upside due to recent bullish momentum; useful for call options or long positions.
#### Example 2: Bearish Scenario (Low Win Rate)
- Current Close: $50.
- Weekly ATR (50 periods): $3 → Daily ATR: $3 / 5 = $0.6.
- Last 50 Candles: 20 green, 30 red → Total colored: 50 → Win Rate: 20/50 = 0.4 (40%).
- Base Projections:
- 1M: $0.6 × 21 = $12.6.
- 3M: $0.6 × 63 = $37.8.
- Adjusted Projections:
- 1M Upside: $12.6 × 0.4 = $5.04 → High: $50 + $5.04 = $55.04 (+10.1%).
- 1M Downside: $12.6 × 0.6 = $7.56 → Low: $50 - $7.56 = $42.44 (-15.1%).
- 3M Upside: $37.8 × 0.4 = $15.12 → High: $50 + $15.12 = $65.12 (+30.2%).
- 3M Downside: $37.8 × 0.6 = $22.68 → Low: $50 - $22.68 = $27.32 (-45.4%).
- On the Chart: Red/orange lines skewed lower; table highlights larger downside % (e.g., -45.4% for 3M low).
- Interpretation: Indicates bearish risk; might prompt protective puts or short strategies.
#### Example 3: Neutral Scenario (Balanced Win Rate)
- Current Close: $100.
- Weekly ATR: $5 → Daily ATR: $1.
- Last 50 Candles: 25 green, 25 red → Win Rate: 0.5 (50%).
- Projections become symmetric:
- 1M: Base $21 → Upside/Downside $10.5 each → High $110.5 (+10.5%), Low $89.5 (-10.5%).
- 3M: Base $63 → Upside/Downside $31.5 each → High $131.5 (+31.5%), Low $68.5 (-31.5%).
- Interpretation: Pure volatility-based range, no directional bias—ideal for straddle options or range trading.
In real use, test on historical data: e.g., if past projections captured actual moves ~68% of the time (1 standard deviation for ATR), it validates the volatility assumption. Adjust the lookback for different assets (shorter for volatile cryptos, longer for stable blue-chips).
Ichimoku Fractal Flow### Ichimoku Fractal Flow (IFF)
By Gurjit Singh
Ichimoku Fractal Flow (IFF) distills the Ichimoku system into a single oscillator by merging fractal echoes of price and cloud dynamics into one flow signal. Instead of static Ichimoku lines, it measures the "flow" between Conversion/Base, Span A/B, price echoes, and cloud echoes. The result is a multidimensional oscillator that reveals hidden rhythm, momentum shifts, and trend bias.
#### 📌 Key Features
1. Fourfold Fusion – The oscillator blends:
* Phase: Tenkan vs. Kijun spread (short vs. medium trend).
* Kumo Phase: Span A vs. Span B spread (cloud thickness).
* Echo: Price vs lagged reflection.
* Cloud Echo: Price vs. projected cloud center.
2. Oscillator Output – A unified flow line oscillating around zero.
3. Dual Calculation Modes – Oscillator can be built using:
* High-Low Midpoint (classic Ichimoku-style averaging).
* Wilder’s RMA (smoother, less noisy averaging averaging).
4. Optional Smoothing – EMA or Wilder’s RMA creates a trend line, enabling MACD-style crossovers.
5. Dynamic Coloring – Bullish/Bearish color shifts for quick bias recognition.
6. Fill Styling – Highlighted regions between oscillator & smoothing line.
7. Zero Line Reference – Acts as a structural pivot (bull vs. bear).
#### 🔑 How to Use
1. Add to Chart: Works across all assets and timeframes.
2. Flow Bias (Zero Line):
* Above 0 → Bullish flow 🐂
* Below 0 → Bearish flow 🐻
3. With Signal Line:
* Oscillator above smoothing line → Possible upward trend shift.
* Oscillator below smoothing line → Possible downward trend shift.
4. Strength:
* Wide separation from smoothing = strong trend.
* Flat, tight clustering = indecision/range.
5. Contextual Edge: Combine signals with Ichimoku Cloud analysis for stronger confluence.
#### ⚙️ Inputs & Options
* Conversion Line (Tenkan, default 9)
* Base Line (Kijun, default 26)
* Leading Span B (default 52)
* Lag/Lead Shift (default 26)
* Oscillator Mode: High-Low Midpoint vs Wilder’s RMA
* Use Smoothing (toggle on/off)
* Signal Smoothing: Wilder/EMA option
* Smoothing Length (default 9)
* Bullish/Bearish Colors + Transparency
#### 💡 Tips
* Wilder’s RMA (both oscillator & smoothing) is gentler, reducing whipsaws in sideways markets.
* High-Low Mid captures pure Ichimoku-style ranges, good for structure-based traders.
* EMA reacts faster than RMA; use if you want early momentum signals.
* Zero-line flips act like momentum pivots—watch them near cloud boundaries.
* Signal line crossovers behave like MACD-style triggers.
* Strongest signals appear when oscillator, signal line, and Ichimoku Cloud all align.
👉 In short: Ichimoku Fractal Flow compresses multi-layered Ichimoku system into a single fractal oscillator that detects flow, pivotal shifts, and momentum with clarity—bridging price, cloud, and echoes into one signal. Where the cloud shows structure, IFF reveals the underlying flow. Together, they offer a fractal lens into market rhythm.
Greer Gap# Greer Gap Indicator (No mitigation: i.e. removing false signals)
## Summary
The **Greer Gap Indicator** identifies **Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)** and introduces specialized **Greer Bull Gaps (Blue)** and **Greer Bear Gaps (Orange)** to highlight high-probability trading opportunities. Unlike traditional FVG indicators, it avoids hindsight bias by not removing historical gaps based on future price action, ensuring transparency in signal accuracy. Built upon LuxAlgo’s FVG logic, it adds unique filtering: only the first Greer Gap after an opposite gap is plotted if its level (min for Bull, max for Bear) is not higher/lower than the previous Greer Gap of the same type, while all valid gaps are recorded for comparison. Traders can use these gaps as support/resistance or entry signals, customizable via timeframe, look back, and display options.
## Description
This indicator detects and displays **Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)** on the chart, with a focus on specialized **Greer Gaps**:
- **Bullish Gaps (Green)**: Areas where the low of the current candle is above the high of a previous candle (look back period), indicating potential upward momentum.
- **Bearish Gaps (Red)**: Areas where the high of the current candle is below the low of a previous candle, indicating potential downward momentum.
- **Greer Bull Gaps (Blue)**: A bullish gap that is above the latest bearish gap's max. Only the first such gap after a bearish gap is plotted if it meets criteria (not higher than the previous Greer Bull Gap's min), but all valid ones are recorded for comparison.
- **Greer Bear Gaps (Orange)**: A bearish gap that is below the latest bullish gap's min. Only the first such gap after a bullish gap is plotted if it meets criteria (not lower than the previous Greer Bear Gap's max), but all valid ones are recorded.
## How It Works
The script uses a dynamic look back period to detect FVGs. It maintains a record of all detected gaps and applies additional logic for Greer Gaps:
- **Greer Bull Gaps**: Checks if the new bullish gap's min is above the latest bearish gap's max. Plots only if it's the first since the last bearish gap and its min is <= previous Greer Bull min (or first one).
- **Greer Bear Gaps**: Checks if the new bearish gap's max is below the latest bullish gap's min. Plots only if it's the first since the last bullish gap and its max is >= previous Greer Bear max (or first one).
- **Resets**: A new bearish gap resets the Greer Bull Gap flag, and a new bullish gap resets the Greer Bear Gap flag.
## How to Use
- **Timeframe**: Set a higher timeframe (e.g., 'D' for daily) to detect gaps from that timeframe on the current chart.
- **Look back Period**: Adjust to change gap detection sensitivity (default: 34). Use 2 if you want to compare to LuxAlgo
- **Extend**: Controls how far right the gap boxes extend.
- **Show Options**: Toggle visibility of all bullish/bearish gaps or Greer Gaps.
- **Colors**: Customize colors for each gap type.
- **Application**: Use Greer Gaps as potential support/resistance levels or entry signals, but combine with other analysis for confirmation.
## Originality and Credits
This script is inspired by and builds upon the **"Fair Value Gap "** indicator by LuxAlgo (available on TradingView: ()).
**Credits**: Thanks to LuxAlgo for the core FVG detection logic.
**Significant Changes**:
- Added **Greer Bull and Bear Gap** logic for filtered, directional gaps with reset mechanisms.
- Introduced recording of all valid Greer Gaps without plotting all, to compare levels without hindsight bias.
- **No mitigation/removal of gaps**: Unlike LuxAlgo's approach, which mitigates (removes or alters) gaps based on future price action (e.g., when filled), this can create a hindsight bias where incorrect signals disappear over time. If a signal is used for a trade and later removed due to new data, it doesn't reflect real-time performance accurately. The Greer Gap avoids this by using gap comparisons to validate signals without altering historical boxes, ensuring transparency in when signals were right or wrong.
Intrabar Volume Delta — RealTime + History (Stocks/Crypto/Forex)Intrabar Volume Delta Grid — RealTime + History (Stocks/Crypto/Forex)
# Short Description
Shows intrabar Up/Down volume, Delta (absolute/relative) and UpShare% in a compact grid for both real-time and historical bars. Includes an MTF (M1…D1) dashboard, contextual coloring, density controls, and alerts on Δ and UpShare%. Smart historical splitting (“History Mode”) for Crypto/Futures/FX.
---
# What it does (Quick)
* **UpVol / DownVol / Δ / UpShare%** — visualizes order-flow inside each candle.
* **Real-time** — accumulates intrabar volume live by tick-direction.
* **History Mode** — splits Up/Down on closed bars via simple or range-aware logic.
* **MTF Dashboard** — one table view across M1, M5, M15, M30, H1, H4, D1 (Vol, Up/Down, Δ%, Share, Trend).
* **Contextual opacity** — stronger signals appear bolder.
* **Label density** — draw every N-th bar and limit to last X bars for performance.
* **Alerts** — thresholds for |Δ|, Δ%, and UpShare%.
---
# How it works (Real-Time vs History)
* **Real-time (open bar):** volume increments into **UpVolRT** or **DownVolRT** depending on last price move (↑ goes to Up, ↓ to Down). This approximates live order-flow even when full tick history isn’t available.
* **History (closed bars):**
* **None** — no split (Up/Down = 0/0). Safest for equities/indices with unreliable tick history.
* **Approx (Close vs Open)** — all volume goes to candle direction (green → Up 100%, red → Down 100%). Fast but yields many 0/100% bars.
* **Price Action Based** — splits by Close position within High-Low range; strength = |Close−mid|/(High−Low). Above mid → more Up; below mid → more Down. Falls back to direction if High==Low.
* **Auto** — **Stocks/Index → None**, **Crypto/Futures/FX → Approx**. If you see too many 0/100 bars, switch to **Price Action Based**.
---
# Rows & Meaning
* **Volume** — total bar volume (no split).
* **UpVol / DownVol** — directional intrabar volume.
* **Delta (Δ)** — UpVol − DownVol.
* **Absolute**: raw units
* **Relative (Δ%)**: Δ / (Up+Down) × 100
* **Both**: shows both formats
* **UpShare%** — UpVol / (Up+Down) × 100. >50% bullish, <50% bearish.
* Helpful icons: ▲ (>65%), ▼ (<35%).
---
# MTF Dashboard (🔧 Enable Dashboard)
A single table with **Vol, Up, Down, Δ%, Share, Trend (🔼/🔽/⏭️)** for selected timeframes (M1…D1). Great for a fast “panorama” read of flow alignment across horizons.
---
# Inputs (Grouped)
## Display
* Toggle rows: **Volume / Up / Down / Delta / UpShare**
* **Delta Display**: Absolute / Relative / Both
## Realtime & History
* **History Mode**: Auto / None / Approx / Price Action Based
* **Compact Numbers**: 1.2k, 1.25M, 3.4B…
## Theme & UI
* **Theme Mode**: Auto / Light / Dark
* **Row Spacing**: vertical spacing between rows
* **Top Row Y**: moves the whole grid vertically
* **Draw Guide Lines**: faint dotted guides
* **Text Size**: Tiny / Small / Normal / Large
## 🔧 Dashboard Settings
* **Enable Dashboard**
* **📏 Table Text Size**: Tiny…Huge
* **🦓 Zebra Rows**
* **🔲 Table Border**
## ⏰ Timeframes (for Dashboard)
* **M1…D1** toggles
## Contextual Coloring
* **Enable Contextual Coloring**: opacity by signal strength
* **Δ% cap / Share offset cap**: saturation caps
* **Min/Max transparency**: solid vs faint extremes
## Label Density & Size
* **Show every N-th bar**: draw labels only every Nth bar
* **Limit to last X bars**: keep labels only in the most recent X bars
## Colors
* Up / Down / Text / Guide
## Alerts
* **Delta Threshold (abs)** — |Δ| in volume units
* **UpShare > / <** — bullish/bearish thresholds
* **Enable Δ% Alert**, **Δ% > +**, **Δ% < −** — relative delta levels
---
# How to use (Quick Start)
1. Add the indicator to your chart (overlay=false → separate pane).
2. **History Mode**:
* Crypto/Futures/FX → keep **Auto** or switch to **Price Action Based** for richer history.
* Stocks/Index → prefer **None** or **Price Action Based** for safer splits.
3. **Label Density**: start with **Limit to last X bars = 30–150** and **Show every N-th bar = 2–4**.
4. **Contextual Coloring**: keep on to emphasize strong Δ% / Share moves.
5. **Dashboard**: enable and pick only the TFs you actually use.
6. **Alerts**: set thresholds (ideas below).
---
# Alerts (in TradingView)
Add alert → pick this indicator → choose any of:
* **Delta exceeds threshold** (|Δ| > X)
* **UpShare above threshold** (UpShare% > X)
* **UpShare below threshold** (UpShare% < X)
* **Relative Delta above +X%**
* **Relative Delta below −X%**
**Starter thresholds (tune per symbol & TF):**
* **Crypto M1/M5**: Δ% > +25…35 (bullish), Δ% < −25…−35 (bearish)
* **FX (tick volume)**: UpShare > 60–65% or < 40–35%
* **Stocks (liquid)**: set **Absolute Δ** by typical volume scale (e.g., 50k / 100k / 500k)
---
# Notes by Market Type
* **Crypto/Futures**: 24/7 and high liquidity — **Price Action Based** often gives nicer history splits than Approx.
* **Forex (FX)**: TradingView volume is typically **tick volume** (not true exchange volume). Treat Δ/Share as tick-based flow, still very useful intraday.
* **Stocks/Index**: historical tick detail can be limited. **None** or **Price Action Based** is a safer default. If you see too many 0/100% shares, switch away from Approx.
---
# “All Timeframes” accuracy
* Works on **any TF** (M1 → D1/W1).
* **Real-time accuracy** is strong for the open bar (live accumulation).
* **Historical accuracy** depends on your **History Mode** (None = safest, Approx = fastest/simplest, Price Action Based = more nuanced).
* The MTF dashboard uses `request.security` and therefore follows the same logic per TF.
---
# Trade Ideas (Use-Cases)
* **Scalping (M1–M5)**: a spike in Δ% + UpShare>65% + rising total Vol → momentum entries.
* **Intraday (M5–M30–H1)**: when multiple TFs show aligned Δ%/Share (e.g., M5 & M15 bullish), join the trend.
* **Swing (H4–D1)**: persistent Δ% > 0 and UpShare > 55–60% → structural accumulation bias.
---
# Advantages
* **True-feeling live flow** on the open bar.
* **Adaptable history** (three modes) to match data quality.
* **Clean visual layout** with guides, compact numbers, contextual opacity.
* **MTF snapshot** for quick bias read.
* **Performance controls** (last X bars, every N-th bar).
---
# Limitations & Care
* **FX uses tick volume** — interpret Δ/Share accordingly.
* **History Mode is an approximation** — confirm with trend/structure/liquidity context.
* **Illiquid symbols** can produce noisy or contradictory signals.
* **Too many labels** can slow charts → raise N, lower X, or disable guides.
---
# Best Practices (Checklist)
* Crypto/Futures: prefer **Price Action Based** for history.
* Stocks: **None** or **Price Action Based**; be cautious with **Approx**.
* FX: pair Δ% & UpShare% with session context (London/NY) and volatility.
* If labels overlap: tweak **Row Spacing** and **Text Size**.
* In the dashboard, keep only the TFs you actually act on.
* Alerts: start around **Δ% 25–35** for “punchy” moves, then refine per asset.
---
# FAQ
**1) Why do some closed bars show 0%/100% UpShare?**
You’re on **Approx** history mode. Switch to **Price Action Based** for smoother splits.
**2) Δ% looks strong but price doesn’t move — why?**
Δ% is an **order-flow** measure. Price also depends on liquidity pockets, sessions, news, higher-timeframe structure. Use confirmations.
**3) Performance slowdown — what to do?**
Lower **Limit to last X bars** (e.g., 30–100), increase **Show every N-th bar** (2–6), or disable **Draw Guide Lines**.
**4) Dashboard values don’t “match” the grid exactly?**
Dashboard is multi-TF via `request.security` and follows the history logic per TF. Differences are normal.
---
# Short “Store” Marketing Blurb
Intrabar Volume Delta Grid reveals the order-flow inside every candle (Up/Down, Δ, UpShare%) — live and on history. With smart history splitting, an MTF dashboard, contextual emphasis, and flexible alerts, it helps you spot momentum and bias across Crypto, Forex (tick volume), and Stocks. Tidy labels and compact numbers keep the panel readable and fast.
AMD [TakingProphets]Overview
The AMD indicator is a real-time, high-resolution tool designed for traders following ICT methodology who want a clear visualization of higher timeframe (HTF) candles directly on their lower timeframe charts.
It overlays current HTF structure, including open, high, low, and close projections, allowing traders to align intraday decisions with institutional price delivery — all without switching timeframes.
Concept & Background
In ICT concepts, market behavior often follows a pattern of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. Understanding these phases is essential for anticipating when price is likely to expand or reverse.
AMD automates this process by:
-Overlaying HTF candles directly on your lower timeframe chart.
-Projecting live levels like the current open, high, low, and close to map out evolving bias.
-Helping traders see whether price is accumulating orders, engineering liquidity sweeps, or distributing aggressively.
Key Features
Live HTF Candle Overlay
-Displays the full HTF candle — body, wicks, and directional bias — on your active chart in real time.
-Perfect for traders aligning intraday setups with broader HTF context.
Dynamic HTF Price Projections
-Plots the evolving open, high, low, and close for the current HTF candle.
-Each projection can be customized by color, style, labels, and visibility to fit your workflow.
Full Customization Control
-Adjust candle body widths, wick styles, and transparency.
-Configure projection lines and time labels in both 12h and 24h formats.
-Includes an optional Info Box showing instrument, timeframe, and session context.
Session Timing & Labeling
-Smart timestamping marks the start and close of each HTF candle.
-Helps traders anticipate potential expansions or reversals during killzones or liquidity events.
How to Use It
Select Your HTF Context
-Choose any timeframe overlay (e.g., 1H, 4H, 1D) to match your trading model.
-Monitor Live HTF Levels
-Watch how price interacts with current HTF highs, lows, and equilibrium levels in real time.
-Integrate With ICT Concepts
-Use alongside tools like SMT divergence, Order Blocks, or Liquidity Levels for confirmation and context.
-Refine Intraday Entries
-Check whether price is expanding in your favor before entering positions.
Best Practices
Combine AMD with ICT killzone sessions to monitor HTF behavior during high-liquidity periods.
Use it alongside correlated SMT divergence tools for stronger directional bias confirmation.
Who It’s For
Scalpers anchoring quick entries to HTF sentiment.
Intraday traders syncing 5m/15m setups with 1H/4H context.
Swing traders monitoring HTF ranges without switching charts.
Educators & analysts needing clean visual overlays for teaching and content creation.
Why It’s Useful
AMD doesn’t provide trading signals or predictive guarantees. Instead, it offers a clean, structured view of HTF price delivery — enabling traders to understand institutional intent as it unfolds and manage their execution with greater confidence.
[GrandAlgo] Moving Averages Cross LevelsMoving Averages Cross Levels
Many traders watch for moving average crossovers – such as the golden cross (50 MA crossing above 200 MA) or death cross – as signals of changing trends. However, once a crossover happens, the exact price level where it occurred often fades from view, even though that level can be an important reference point. Moving Averages Cross Levels is an indicator that keeps those crossover price levels visible on your chart, helping you track where momentum shifts occurred and how price behaves relative to those key levels.
This tool plots horizontal line segments at the price where each pair of selected moving averages crossed within a recent window of bars. Each level is labeled with the moving average lengths (for example, “21×50” for a 21/50 MA cross) and is color-coded – green for bullish crossovers (short-term MA crossing above long-term MA) and red for bearish crossunders (short-term crossing below). By visualizing these crossover levels, you can quickly identify past trend change points and use them as potential support/resistance or decision levels in your trading. Importantly, this indicator is non-repainting – once a crossover level is plotted, it remains fixed at the historical price where the cross occurred, allowing you to continually monitor that level going forward. (As with any moving average-based analysis, crossover signals are lagging, so use these levels in conjunction with other tools for confirmation.)
Key Features:
✅ Multiple Moving Averages: Track up to 7 different MAs (e.g. 5, 8, 21, 50, 64, 83, 200 by default) simultaneously. You can enable/disable each MA and set its length, allowing flexible combinations of short-term and long-term averages.
✅ Selectable MA Type: Each average can be calculated as a Simple (SMA), Exponential (EMA), Volume-Weighted (VWMA), or Smoothed (RMA) moving average, giving you flexibility to match your preferred method.
✅ Auto Crossover Detection: The script automatically detects all crosses between any enabled MA pairs, so you don’t have to specify pairs manually. Whether it’s a fast cross (5×8) or a long-term cross (50×200), every crossover within the lookback period will be identified and marked.
✅ Horizontal Level Markers: For each detected crossover, a horizontal line segment is drawn at the exact price where the crossover occurred. This makes it easy to glance at your chart and see precisely where two moving averages intersected in the recent past.
✅ Labeled and Color-Coded: Each crossover line is labeled with the two MA lengths that crossed (e.g. “50×200”) for clear identification. Colors indicate crossover direction – by default green for bullish (positive) crossovers and red for bearish (negative) crossovers – so you can tell at a glance which way the trend shifted. (You can customize these colors in the settings.)
✅ Adjustable Lookback: A “Crosses with X candles” input lets you control how far back the script looks for crossovers to plot. This prevents your chart from getting cluttered with too many old levels – for example, set X = 100 to show crossovers from roughly the last 100 bars. Older crossover lines beyond this lookback window will automatically clear off the chart.
✅ Optional MA Plots: You can toggle the display of each moving average line on the chart. This means you can either view just the crossover levels alone for a clean look, or also overlay the MA curves themselves for additional context (to see how price and MAs were moving around the crossover).
✅ No Repainting or Hindsight Bias: Once a crossover level is plotted, it stays at that fixed price. The indicator doesn’t move levels around after the fact – each line is a true historical event marker. This allows you to backtest visually: see how price acted after the crossover by observing if it retested or respected that level later.
How It Works:
1️⃣ Add to Chart & Configure – Simply add the indicator to your chart. In the settings, choose which moving averages you want to include and set their lengths. For example, you might enable 21, 50, 200 to focus on medium and long-term crosses (including the golden cross), or turn on shorter MAs like 5 and 8 for quick momentum shifts. Adjust the lookback (number of bars to scan for crosses) if needed.
2️⃣ Visualization – The script continuously checks the latest X bars for any points where one MA crossed above or below another. Whenever a crossover is found, it calculates the exact price level at which the two moving averages intersected. On the last bar of your chart, it will draw a horizontal line segment extending from the crossover bar to the current bar at that price level, and place a label to the right of the line with the MA lengths. Green lines/labels signify bullish crossovers (where the first MA crossed above the second), and red lines indicate bearish crossunders.
3️⃣ On Your Chart – You will see these labeled levels aligned with the price scale. For example, if a 50 MA crossed above a 200 MA (bullish) 50 bars ago at price $100, there will be a green “50×200” line at $100 extending to the present, showing you exactly where that golden cross happened. You might notice price pulling back near that level and bouncing, or if price falls back through it, it could signal a failed crossover. The indicator updates in real-time: if a new crossover happens on the latest bar, a new line and label will instantly appear, and if any old cross moves out of the lookback range, its line is removed to keep the chart focused.
4️⃣ Customization – You can fine-tune the appearance: toggle any MA’s visibility, change line colors or label styles, and modify the lookback length to suit different timeframes. For instance, on a 1-hour chart you might use a lookback of 500 bars to see a few weeks of cross history, whereas on a daily chart 100 bars (about 4–5 months) may be sufficient. Adjust these settings based on how many crossover levels you find useful to display.
Ideal for Traders Who:
Use MA Crossovers in Strategy: If your strategy involves moving average crossovers (for trend confirmation or entry/exit signals), this indicator provides an extra layer of insight by keeping the price of those crossover events in sight. For example, trend-followers can watch if price stays above a bullish crossover level as a sign of trend strength, or falls below it as a sign of weakness.
Identify Support/Resistance from MA Events: Crossover levels often coincide with pivot points in market sentiment. A crossover can act like a regime change – the level where it happened may turn into support or resistance. This tool helps you mark those potential S/R levels automatically. Rather than manually noting where a golden cross occurred, you’ll have it highlighted, which can be useful for setting stop-losses (e.g. below the crossover price in a bullish scenario) or profit targets.
Track Multiple Averages at Once: Instead of focusing on just one pair of moving averages, you might be interested in the interaction of several (short, medium, and long-term trends). This indicator caters to that by plotting all relevant crossovers among your chosen MAs. It’s great for multi-timeframe thinkers as well – e.g. you could apply it on a higher timeframe chart to mark major cross levels, then drill down to lower timeframes knowing those key prices.
Value Clean Visualization: There are no flashing signals or arrows – just simple lines and labels that enhance your chart’s storytelling. It’s ideal if you prefer to make trading decisions based on understanding price interaction with technical levels rather than following automatic trade calls. Moving Averages Cross Levels gives you information to act on, without imposing any bias or strategy – you interpret the crossover levels in the context of your own trading system.
Sunmool's Silver Bullet Model FinderICT Silver Bullet Model Indicator - Complete Guide
📈 Overview
The ICT Silver Bullet Model indicator is a supplementary tool for utilizing ICT's (Inner Circle Trader) market structure analysis techniques. This indicator detects institutional liquidity hunting patterns and automatically identifies structural levels, helping traders analyze market structure more effectively.
🎯 Core Features
1. Structural Level Identification
STL (Short Term Low): Recent support levels formed in the short term
STH (Short Term High): Recent resistance levels formed in the short term
ITL (Intermediate Term Low): Stronger support levels with more significance
ITH (Intermediate Term High): Stronger resistance levels with more significance
2. Kill Zone Time Display
London Kill Zone: 02:00-05:00 (default)
New York Kill Zone: 08:30-11:00 (default)
These are the most active trading hours for institutional players where significant price movements occur
3. Smart Sweep Detection
Bear Sweep (🔻): Pattern where price sweeps below lows then recovers - Simply indicates sweep occurrence
Bull Sweep (🔺): Pattern where price sweeps above highs then declines - Simply indicates sweep occurrence
Important: Sweep labels only mark liquidity hunting locations, not directional bias.
🔧 Configuration Parameters
Basic Settings
Sweep Detection Lookback: Number of candles for sweep detection (default: 20)
Structure Point Lookback: Number of candles for structural point detection (default: 10)
Sweep Threshold: Percentage threshold for sweep validation (default: 0.1%)
Time Settings
London Kill Zone: Active hours for London session
New York Kill Zone: Active hours for New York session
Visualization Settings
Customizable colors for each level type
Enable/disable alert notifications
📊 How to Use
1. Chart Setup
Most effective on 1-minute to 1-hour timeframes
Recommended for major currency pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.)
Also applicable to cryptocurrencies and indices
2. Signal Interpretation
🔻 Bear Sweep / 🔺 Bull Sweep Labels
Simply indicate liquidity hunting occurrence points
Not directional bias indicators
Reference for understanding overall context on HTF
🟢 Silver Bullet Long (Huge Green Triangle)
After Bear Sweep occurrence
Within Kill Zone timeframe
Current price positioned above swept level
→ Actual BUY entry signal
🔴 Silver Bullet Short (Huge Red Triangle)
After Bull Sweep occurrence
Within Kill Zone timeframe
Current price positioned below swept level
→ Actual SELL entry signal
3. Risk Management
Use swept levels as stop-loss reference points
Approach signals outside Kill Zone hours with caution
Recommended to use alongside other technical analysis tools
💡 Trading Strategies
Silver Bullet Strategy
Preparation Phase: Monitor charts 30 minutes before Kill Zone
Sweep Observation: Identify liquidity hunting points with 🔻🔺 labels (reference only)
Entry: Enter ONLY when huge triangle Silver Bullet signal appears within Kill Zone
Take Profit: Target opposite structural level or 1:2 reward ratio
Stop Loss: Beyond the swept level
Important: Small sweep labels are NOT trading signals!
Multi-Timeframe Approach
Step 1: HTF (Higher Time Frame) Sweep Reference
Observe 🔻🔺 sweep labels on 4-hour and daily charts
Reference only sweeps occurring at major structural levels
HTF sweeps are used to identify liquidity hunting points
Reference only, not for directional bias
Step 2: Transition to LTF (Lower Time Frame)
Move to 15-minute, 5-minute, and 1-minute charts
Analyze LTF with reference to HTF sweep information
Use STL, STH, ITL, ITH for precise entry point identification
Structural levels on LTF are the core of actual trading decisions
Only huge triangle (Silver Bullet) signals are actual entry signals
Recommended Usage
Identify overall sweep occurrence points on HTF (🔻🔺 labels)
Use this indicator on LTF to identify structural levels
Reference only huge triangle signals for actual trading during Kill Zone
Small sweep labels (🔻🔺) are for reference only, not entry signals
📋 Information Table Interpretation
Real-time information in the top-right table:
Kill Zone Status: Current active session status
Level Counts: Number of each structural level type
⚠️ Important Disclaimers
Backtesting results do not guarantee future performance
Exercise caution during high market volatility periods
Always apply proper risk management
Recommend comprehensive analysis with other analytical tools
🎓 Learning Resources
Study original ICT concepts through free YouTube educational content
Research Market Structure analysis techniques
Optimize through backtesting for personal use
🔬 Technical Implementation
Algorithm Logic
Pivot Point Detection: Uses TradingView's built-in pivot functions to identify swing highs and lows
Classification System: Automatically categorizes levels based on recent price action frequency
Sweep Validation: Confirms legitimate sweeps through price action analysis
Time-Based Filtering: Prioritizes signals during institutional active hours
Performance Optimization
Efficient array management prevents memory overflow
Dynamic level cleanup maintains chart clarity
Real-time calculation ensures minimal lag
🛠️ Customization Tips
Adjust lookback periods based on market volatility
Modify kill zone times for different market sessions
Experiment with sweep threshold for different instruments
Color-code levels according to personal preference
📈 Expected Outcomes
When properly implemented, this indicator can help traders:
Identify high-probability reversal points
Time entries with institutional flow
Reduce false signals through kill zone filtering
Improve risk-to-reward ratios
This indicator automates ICT's concepts into a user-friendly tool that can be enhanced through continuous learning and practical application. Success depends on understanding the underlying market structure principles and combining them with proper risk management techniques.
Aroon ADX/DIUnified trend-strength (ADX/DI) + trend-age (Aroon) with centered scaling, gated signals, regime tints, and a compact readout.
What is different about this script:
- Purpose-built mashup of ADX/DI tells trend strength and side, while Aroon Oscillator tracks trend emergence/aging. Combining them into a scaled chart creates a way to separate “strong-but-late” trends from “newly-emerging” ones.
- Unified scale: Centering the maps into a common +/- 100 range so all lines are directly comparable at a glance (no units mismatch or fumbling with scales).
- Signal quality gating: DI cross signals can be gated by minimum ADX so crosses in chop are filtered out.
- Regime context: Background tints show low-strength chop, developing, and strong regimes using your ADX thresholds.
- Operator-focused UI: Clean fills, color-blind palette, and a two-column table summarizing DI+, DI−, ADX, Aroon, and a plain-English Bias/Trend status.
How it works:
- DI+/DI−/ADX: Wilder’s DI is smoothed; DX → ADX via SMA smoothing.
- Aroon Oscillator: highlights new highs/lows frequency to infer trend
- Centering: Maps DI/ADX from 5-95 and ±100, with your Midpoint controlling where “0” sits in raw mode.
- Signals:
- Bullish/Bearish DI crosses, optionally allowed only when ADX ≥ Min.
- ADX crosses of your Low/High thresholds.
- Aroon crosses of 0, +80, −80 (fresh trend thresholds).
- Display aids: Optional fill between DI+/DI−; thin guides for thresholds; single-pane table summary.
How to use:
- For this to be useful, centering should stay on, modify ADX Low/High and monitor DI crosses with ADX.
- Interpretations:
Bias: DI+ above DI− = bull; below = bear.
Strength level: ADX < Low = chop, Low–High = developing, > High = strong.
Freshness: Aroon > +80 or crossing up 0 suggests new or continued bull push; < −80 or crossing down 0 suggests new or continued bear push.
- Alerts: Use built-ins for DI crosses, ADX regime changes, and Aroon thresholds.
[blackcat] L1 Value Trend IndicatorOVERVIEW
The L1 Value Trend Indicator is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed for TradingView users seeking advanced market trend identification and trading signals. This comprehensive indicator combines multiple analytical techniques to provide traders with a holistic view of market dynamics, helping identify potential entry and exit points through various signal mechanisms. 📈 It features a main Value Trend line along with a lagged version, golden cross and dead cross signals, and multiple technical indicators including RSI, Williams %R, Stochastic %K/D, and Relative Strength calculations. The indicator also includes reference levels for support and resistance analysis, making it a versatile tool for both short-term and long-term trading strategies. ✅
FEATURES
📈 Primary Value Trend Line: Calculates a smoothed value trend using a combination of SMA and custom smoothing techniques
🔍 Value Trend Lag: Implements a lagged version of the main trend line for cross-over analysis
🚀 Golden Cross & Dead Cross Signals: Identifies buy/sell opportunities when the main trend line crosses its lagged version
💸 Multi-Indicator Integration: Combines multiple technical analysis tools for comprehensive market view
📊 RSI Calculations: Includes 6-period, 7-period, and 13-period RSI calculations for momentum analysis
📈 Williams %R: Provides overbought/oversold conditions using the Williams %R formula
📉 Stochastic Oscillator: Implements both Stochastic %K and %D calculations for momentum confirmation
📋 Relative Strength: Calculates relative strength based on highest highs and current price
✅ Visual Labels: Displays BUY and SELL labels on chart when crossover conditions are met
📣 Alert Conditions: Provides automated alert conditions for golden cross and dead cross events
📌 Reference Levels: Plots entry (25) and exit (75) reference lines for support/resistance analysis
HOW TO USE
Copy the Script: Copy the complete Pine Script code from the original file
Open TradingView: Navigate to TradingView website or application
Access Pine Editor: Go to the Pine Script editor (usually found in the chart toolbar)
Paste Code: Paste the copied script into the editor
Save Script: Save the script with a descriptive name like " L1 Value Trend Indicator"
Select Chart: Choose the chart where you want to apply the indicator
Add Indicator: Apply the indicator to your chart
Configure Parameters: Adjust input parameters to customize behavior
Monitor Signals: Watch for golden cross (BUY) and dead cross (SELL) signals
Use Reference Levels: Monitor entry (25) and exit (75) lines for support/resistance levels
LIMITATIONS
⚠️ Potential Repainting: The script may repaint due to lookahead bias in some calculations
📉 Lookahead Bias: Some calculations may reference future values, potentially causing repainting issues
🔄 Parameter Sensitivity: Results may vary significantly with different parameter settings
📉 Computational Complexity: May impact chart performance with heavy calculations on large datasets
📊 Resource Usage: Requires significant processing power for multiple indicator calculations
🔄 Data Sensitivity: Results may be affected by data quality and market conditions
NOTES
📈 Signal Timing: Cross-over signals may lag behind actual price movements
📉 Parameter Optimization: Optimal parameters may vary by market conditions and asset type
📋 Market Conditions: Performance may vary significantly across different market environments
📈 Multi-Indicator: Combine signals with other technical indicators for confirmation
📉 Timeframe Analysis: Use multiple timeframes for enhanced signal accuracy
📋 Volume Analysis: Incorporate volume data for additional confirmation
📈 Strategy Integration: Consider using this indicator as part of a broader trading strategy
📉 Risk Management: Use signals as part of a comprehensive risk management approach
📋 Backtesting: Test parameter combinations with historical data before live trading
THANKS
🙏 Original Creator: blackcat1402 creates the L1 Value Trend Indicator
📚 Community Contributions: Recognition to TradingView community for continuous improvements and contributions
📈 Collaborative Development: Appreciation for collaborative efforts in enhancing technical analysis tools
📉 TradingView Community: Special thanks to TradingView community members for their ongoing support and feedback
📋 Educational Resources: Recognition of educational resources that helped in understanding technical analysis principles
Pivot Distance Strategy# Multi-Timeframe Pivot Distance Strategy
## Core Innovation & Originality
This strategy revolutionizes moving average crossover trading by applying MA logic to **pivot distance relationships** instead of raw price data. Unlike traditional MA crossovers that react to price changes, this system reacts to **structural momentum changes** in how current price relates to recent significant pivot levels, creating earlier signals with fewer false positives.
## Methodology & Mathematical Foundation
### Pivot Distance Oscillator
The strategy calculates:
- **High Pivot Percentage**: (Current Close / Last Pivot High) × 100
- **Low Pivot Percentage**: (Last Pivot Low / Current Close) × 100
- **Pivot Distance**: High Pivot Percentage - Low Pivot Percentage
This creates a standardized oscillator measuring market structure compression/expansion regardless of asset price or volatility.
### Multi-Timeframe Filter
Higher timeframe analysis provides directional bias:
- **HTF Long** → Allow long entries, force short exits
- **HTF Short** → Allow short entries, force long exits
- **HTF Squeeze** → Block all entries, force all exits
## Signal Generation Methods
### Method 1: Dual MA Crossover (Primary/Default)
**Fast MA (14 EMA)** and **Slow MA (50 SMA)** applied to pivot distance values:
- **Long Signal**: Fast MA crosses above Slow MA (accelerating bullish pivot momentum)
- **Short Signal**: Fast MA crosses below Slow MA (accelerating bearish pivot momentum)
**Key Advantage**:
- Traditional: Fast MA(price) crosses Slow MA(price) - reacts to price changes
- This Strategy: Fast MA(pivot distance) crosses Slow MA(pivot distance) - reacts to structural changes
- Result: Earlier signals, better trend identification, fewer ranging market whipsaws
### Method 2: MA Cross Zero
- **Long**: Pivot Distance MA crosses above zero
- **Short**: Pivot Distance MA crosses below zero
### Method 3: Pivot Distance Breakout (Squeeze-Based)
Uses dynamic threshold envelopes to detect compression/expansion cycles:
- **Long**: Distance breaks above dynamic breakout threshold after squeeze
- **Short**: Distance breaks below negative breakout threshold after squeeze
**Note**: Only the Breakout method uses threshold envelopes; MA Cross modes operate without them for cleaner signals.
## Risk Management Integration
- **ATR-Based Stops**: Entry ± (ATR × Multiplier) for stops/targets
- **Trailing Stops**: Dynamic adjustment based on profit thresholds
- **Cooldown System**: Prevents overtrading after stop-loss exits
## How to Use
### Setup (Default: MA Cross MA)
1. **Strategy Logic**: "MA Cross MA" for structural momentum signals
2. **MA Settings**: 14 EMA (fast) / 50 SMA (slow) - both adjustable
3. **Multi-Timeframe**: Enable HTF for trend alignment
4. **Risk Management**: ATR stop loss, ATR take profit
### Signal Interpretation
- **Blue/Purple lines**: Fast/Slow MAs of pivot distance
- **Green/Red histogram**: Positive/negative pivot distance
- **Triangle markers**: MA crossover entry signals
- **HTF display**: Shows higher timeframe bias (top-left)
### Trade Management
- **Entry**: Clean MA crossover with HTF alignment
- **Exit**: Opposite crossover, HTF change, or risk management triggers
## Unique Advantages
1. **Structural vs Price Momentum**: Captures market structure changes rather than just price movement, naturally filtering noise
2. **Multi-Modal Flexibility**: Three signal methods for different market conditions or strategies
3. **Timeframe Alignment**: HTF filtering improves win rates by preventing counter-trend trades
Cheat CodeWhy Monday & Friday
Monday evening (NY): frequently seeds the weekly expansion. Its DR/IDR often acts as a weekly “starter envelope,” useful for breakout continuation or fade back into the box plays as liquidity builds.
Friday evening (NY): often exposes end-of-week traps (run on stops into the close) and sets expectation boundaries into the following week. Carry these levels forward to catch Monday’s reaction to Friday’s closing structure.
Typical use-cases
Breakout & retest:
Price closes outside the Monday DR/IDR → look for retests of the band edge for continuation.
Liquidity sweep (“trap”) recognition:
Friday session wicks briefly beyond Friday DR/IDR then closes back inside → watch for mean reversion early next week.
Bias filter:
Above both Monday DR midline and Friday DR midline → bias long until proven otherwise; the inverse for shorts.
Session open confluence:
Reactions at the open line frequently mark decision points for momentum vs. fade setups.
(This is a levels framework, not a signals engine. Combine with your execution model: orderflow, S/R, session timing, or higher-TF bias.)
Inputs & styling (quick reference)
Display toggles (per day):
Show DR / IDR / Middle DR / Middle IDR
Show Opening Line
Show DR/IDR Box (choose DR or IDR as box source)
Show Price Labels
Style controls (per day):
Line width (1–4), style (Solid/Dashed/Dotted)
Independent colors for DR, IDR, midlines, open line
Box background opacity
Timezone:
Default America/New_York (changeable).
Optional on-chart warning if your chart TZ differs.
Practical notes
Works on intraday charts; levels are anchored using weekly timestamps for accuracy on any symbol.
Live updating: During the Mon/Fri calc windows, DR/IDR highs/lows and midlines keep updating until the session ends.
Clean drawings: Lines, box, and labels are created once per session and then extended/updated—efficient on resources even with long display windows.
Max elements: Script reserves ample line/box/label capacity for stability across weeks.
Dual Vwap on IntradayIndicator Name: Dual VWAP on Intraday
Version: Pine Script v5
Description
This indicator plots two separate VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) lines on intraday charts, helping traders identify intraday trend bias and potential support/resistance zones.
The script is designed exclusively for intraday timeframes and will stop execution if used on daily or higher intervals.
🔍 How It Works
VWAP Calculation
Uses a custom function that calculates VWAP fresh for each trading session.
VWAP #1: Based on hl2 (average of high and low).
VWAP #2: Based on high price.
Dynamic Color Coding
The VWAP lines change color if the percentage change from the previous bar exceeds ±0.5%, signaling notable short-term volatility.
Otherwise, they retain their default colors:
Blue: VWAP (hl2 source)
Orange: VWAP (High source)
Intraday-Only Restriction
Prevents accidental use on higher timeframes to maintain accuracy.
📈 How to Use
Trend Confirmation: Both VWAPs above price → Bearish bias; both below → Bullish bias.
Support/Resistance: VWAP lines often act as strong intraday support or resistance.
Momentum Shift: Watch for price crossing either VWAP with strong candle bodies for potential reversals or breakouts.
Volatility Alerts: Darkened VWAP line indicates an intraday percentage change greater than 0.5%, signaling increased momentum.
⚠️ Notes
Works only on intraday timeframes (1m, 5m, 15m, etc.).
Best paired with volume and price action analysis.
Structure From Start – MTF (body-close BOS)Displays higher-timeframe market structure from a chosen start date using body-close BOS logic, with trend state, guard levels, and BOS markers plotted on your current chart.
Multi-Timeframe Market Structure with Body-Close BOS Logic
This indicator tracks market structure from a chosen start date on a higher-timeframe (HTF) of your choice, then displays it on your current chart for intraday context.
It detects swing highs/lows using pivot logic, confirms Break of Structure (BOS) only when a candle closes beyond the swing level (body-close rule), and maintains the “valid swing” level that invalidates the current bias.
Key Features:
• Works on any HTF you select (e.g., H1, H4) while you operate on lower TFs like M5 or M1.
• Start reading structure from any date/time you choose for focused backtesting or scenario analysis.
• Highlights trend state (long/short/neutral) with background colors.
• Plots the active “guard” level (valid swing high/low) that would flip bias if broken.
• Marks BOS events directly on your trading TF, updating only when the HTF candle closes.
Ideal for combining a clear higher-timeframe bias with lower-timeframe execution, without manually tracking HTF structure changes during live markets.
X or AVWAPX OR AVWAP is a multi-layered market mapping tool designed to combine Opening Range analysis, Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) positioning, and SMA markers into a unified visual framework.
Opening Range (OR) Mapping
The indicator supports two independent Opening Ranges, allowing traders to define both a primary range and a micro range for finer analysis. This is particularly effective when viewing lower timeframes, where a smaller OR inside the larger OR reveals intraday microstructure.
OR #1 and OR #2 each have configurable session times, colors, and optional midpoint lines.
Historical OR boxes can be shown or hidden, with the ability to extend levels forward in time.
Optional Fibonacci-based expansion levels (0.5x, 1x, 1.5x, 2x, 3x OR) are available for projecting breakout targets and retracement zones.
Traders can toggle high/low lines, midpoints, and labels independently for cleaner chart presentation.
Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) Layers
To track institutional capital flow and session bias, the indicator offers three separate AVWAP anchors, each independently controlled:
Can be anchored to custom events, sessions, or manual reference points.
Enables granular capital flow mapping down to 4-hour increments, helping traders align intraday trades with broader directional bias.
Each AVWAP can be toggled on/off to avoid clutter and isolate the most relevant flow line for the current setup.
SMA Markers
For additional context, simple moving average markers can be displayed alongside OR and AVWAP structure, helping gauge trend direction and mean-reversion potential.
Use Case
This tool is built for traders who want to combine structure, flow, and trend in a single view. On lower timeframes, the dual OR feature allows for a “range-within-a-range” perspective, revealing short-term liquidity pockets inside the day’s primary auction boundaries. The multi-anchor AVWAPs track how price interacts with session-based weighted averages, highlighting points where institutional bias may shift. When combined with SMA markers, the trader gains a comprehensive map for scalping, intraday swing trading, and capital flow tracking.
Squeeze Momentum Regression Clouds [SciQua]╭──────────────────────────────────────────────╮
☁️ Squeeze Momentum Regression Clouds
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🔍 Overview
The Squeeze Momentum Regression Clouds (SMRC) indicator is a powerful visual tool for identifying price compression , trend strength , and slope momentum using multiple layers of linear regression Clouds. Designed to extend the classic squeeze framework, this indicator captures the behavior of price through dynamic slope detection, percentile-based spread analytics, and an optional UI for trend inspection — across up to four customizable regression Clouds .
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⚙️ Core Features
╰────────────────╯
Up to 4 Regression Clouds – Each Cloud is created from a top and bottom linear regression line over a configurable lookback window.
Slope Detection Engine – Identifies whether each band is rising, falling, or flat based on slope-to-ATR thresholds.
Spread Compression Heatmap – Highlights compressed zones using yellow intensity, derived from historical spread analysis.
Composite Trend Scoring – Aggregates directional signals from each Cloud using your chosen weighting model.
Color-Coded Candles – Optional candle coloring reflects the real-time composite score.
UI Table – A toggleable info table shows slopes, compression levels, percentile ranks, and direction scores for each Cloud.
Gradient Cloud Styling – Apply gradient coloring from Cloud 1 to Cloud 4 for visual slope intensity.
Weight Aggregation Options – Use equal weighting, inverse-length weighting, or max pooling across Clouds to determine composite trend strength.
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🧪 How to Use the Indicator
1. Understand Trend Bias with Cloud Colors
╰──────────────────────────────────────────╯
Each Cloud changes color based on its current slope:
Green indicates a rising trend.
Red indicates a falling trend.
Gray indicates a flat slope — often seen during chop or transitions.
Cloud 1 typically reflects short-term structure, while Cloud 4 represents long-term directional bias. Watch for multi-Cloud alignment — when all Clouds are green or red, the trend is strong. Divergence among Clouds often signals a potential shift.
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2. Use Compression Heat to Anticipate Breakouts
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The space between each Cloud’s top and bottom regression lines is measured, normalized, and analyzed over time. When this spread tightens relative to its history, the script highlights the band with a yellow compression glow .
This visual cue helps identify squeeze zones before volatility expands. If you see compression paired with a changing slope color (e.g., gray to green), this may indicate an impending breakout.
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╭─────────────────────────────────╮
3. Leverage the Optional Table UI
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The indicator includes a dynamic, floating table that displays real-time metrics per Cloud. These include:
Slope direction and value , with historical Min/Max reference.
Top and Bottom percentile ranks , showing how price sits within the Cloud range.
Current spread width , compared to its historical norms.
Composite score , which blends trend, slope, and compression for that Cloud.
You can customize the table’s position, theme, transparency, and whether to show a combined summary score in the header.
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4. Analyze Candle Color for Composite Signals
╰─────────────────────────────────────────────╯
When enabled, the indicator colors candles based on a weighted composite score. This score factors in:
The signed slope of each Cloud (up, down, or flat)
The percentile pressure from the top and bottom bands
The degree of spread compression
Expect green candles in bullish trend phases, red candles during bearish regimes, and gray candles in mixed or low-conviction zones.
Candle coloring provides a visual shorthand for market conditions , useful for intraday scanning or historical backtesting.
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╭────────────────────────╮
🧰 Configuration Guidance
╰────────────────────────╯
To tailor the indicator to your strategy:
Use Cloud lengths like 21, 34, 55, and 89 for a balanced multi-timeframe view.
Adjust the slope threshold (default 0.05) to control how sensitive the trend coloring is.
Set the spread floor (e.g., 0.15) to tune when compression is detected and visualized.
Choose your weighting style : Inverse Length (favor faster bands), Equal, or Max Pooling (most aggressive).
Set composite weights to emphasize trend slope, percentile bias, or compression—depending on your market edge.
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✅ Best Practices
╰────────────────╯
Use aligned Cloud colors across all bands to confirm trend conviction.
Combine slope direction with compression glow for early breakout entry setups.
In choppy markets, watch for Clouds 1 and 2 turning flat while Clouds 3 and 4 remain directional — a sign of potential trend exhaustion or consolidation.
Keep the table enabled during backtesting to manually evaluate how each Cloud behaved during price turns and consolidations.
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📌 License & Usage Terms
╰───────────────────────╯
This script is provided under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License .
✅ You are allowed to:
Use this script for personal or educational purposes
Study, learn, and adapt it for your own non-commercial strategies
❌ You are not allowed to:
Resell or redistribute the script without permission
Use it inside any paid product or service
Republish without giving clear attribution to the original author
For commercial licensing , private customization, or collaborations, please contact Joshua Danford directly.
6FG Plan Checklist & Alerts - Final Version🧠 SCRIPT OVERVIEW: "6FG A+ SETUP - Simplified"
This script is designed to identify high-probability A+ trade setups in alignment with your personal 6FG trading plan, based on:
H1 Break of Structure (required)
4H trend confirmation
15M candle confirmation
Session filter
A+ Label & Visual Table Checklist
✅ KEY COMPONENTS
1. Toggle Inputs
These allow you to customize your view and filters without changing the code:
showSession: Only allow alerts inside Asian or NY sessions
show4hTrend: Include or ignore 4H directional bias
show15mConfirm: Include or ignore confirmation from 15M candles
showTable: Display checklist table on chart
showLabel: Display the “✅ A+” label on qualifying bars
2. Session Filter
Defines valid timeframes for trading (Asian or New York)
Helps avoid setups during low-liquidity hours
Controlled by showSession
3. 4H Trend (Confirmation Only)
Uses a 20-period SMA on 4H to detect general bias:
Bullish = Price above SMA
Bearish = Price below SMA
This trend is not mandatory for an alert if toggle is off
4. H1 Break of Structure (REQUIRED)
Looks at the highest high and lowest low of the last 10 candles on the 1H timeframe
Detects either:
Bullish BOS = Current close > highest high
Bearish BOS = Current close < lowest low
This is the core trigger for the A+ setup
If BOS doesn't happen, no entry is valid
5. 15M Confirmation Candles
(Optional - controlled by show15mConfirm)
Checks for one of three confirmation patterns:
Bullish Engulfing
Bearish Engulfing
Pin Bar
This adds confidence but can be toggled off
6. Entry Conditions (A+ Setup)
All the following must be true for entryOK = true:
✅ H1 BOS (required)
✅ Session is valid (if toggle is on)
✅ 15M confirmation pattern (if toggle is on)
✅ 4H trend (if toggle is on)
7. Visual Output
If entryOK = true:
✅ A green "A+" label appears below price
✅ A checklist table on the top-right shows:
Session status ✔️❌
4H bullish/bearish ✔️❌
H1 BOS ✔️❌
15M confirmation ✔️❌
Final Direction: Bullish / Bearish / —
A+ Setup: ✔️❌
8. Alerts
You will receive a TradingView alert when an A+ Setup is detected:
Kent Directional Filter🧭 Kent Directional Filter
Author: GabrielAmadeusLau
Type: Filter
📖 What It Is
The Kent Directional Filter is a directionality-sensitive smoothing tool inspired by the Kent distribution, a probability model used to describe directional and elliptical shapes on a sphere. In this context, it's repurposed for analyzing the angular trajectory of price movements and smoothing them for actionable insights.
It’s ideal for:
Detecting directional bias with probabilistic weighting
Enhancing momentum or trend-following systems
Filtering non-linear price action
🔬 How It Works
Price Angle Estimation:
Computes a rough angular shift in price using atan(src - src ) to estimate direction.
Kent Distribution Weighting:
κ (kappa) controls concentration strength (how sharply it prefers a direction).
β (beta) controls ellipticity (bias toward curved vs. linear moves).
These parameters influence how strongly the indicator favors movements at ~45° angles, simulating a directional “lens.”
Smoothing:
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) is applied over the raw directional probabilities to reduce noise and highlight the underlying trend signal.
⚙️ Inputs
Source: Price series used for angle calculation (default: close)
Smoothing Length: Window size for the moving average
Pi Divisor: Pi / 4 would be 45 degrees, you can change the 4 to 3, 2, etc.
Kappa (κ): Controls how focused the directionality is (higher = sharper filter)
Beta (β): Adds curvature sensitivity; higher values accentuate asymmetrical moves
🧠 Tips for Best Results
Use κ = 1–2 for moderate directional filtering, and β = 0.3–0.7 for smooth elliptical bias.
Combine with volume-based indicators to confirm breakout strength.
Works best in higher timeframes (1h–1D) to capture macro directional structure.
I might revisit this.
Omega Market Mood Meter [OmegaTools]The Omega Market Mood Meter is a precision-built sentiment oscillator that captures the market’s emotional intensity through a multi-layered RSI system. Designed for traders who seek to align with the market's true behavioral state, it blends momentum readings with a brand-new, rarely-seen innovation: the Sentiment-Weighted Moving Average (WMA-Ω)—a trend filter that dynamically adjusts to the market’s psychological tone.
🧠 Market Mood Oscillator
At its core, the Ω 3M oscillator aggregates three RSI-based components:
RSI(9) on close — captures short-term tension;
RSI(21) on HLC3 — balances medium-term positioning;
RSI(50) on HL2 — reflects long-term directional weight.
Each input is scaled and weighted to contribute to a final oscillator centered around zero, with ±50 and ±100 acting as key sentiment boundaries. When values exceed ±100, the market is likely reaching emotional extremes—zones that often precede reversals or require caution.
Visual features include:
Dynamic Background Highlighting: automatically emphasizes extreme sentiment zones.
Reference Lines: plotted at ±100, ±50, and 0 for fast sentiment interpretation.
🔥 WMA-Ω: Sentiment-Weighted Moving Average
The standout innovation of this tool is the Weighted Market Mood Moving Average, or WMA-Ω—a proprietary calculation that averages price using the absolute value of sentiment as its weighting force. This approach gives greater importance to price during periods of strong emotional conviction (either bullish or bearish), resulting in a context-aware trend filter that reacts only when sentiment truly matters.
This technique:
Filters noise during low-volatility or indecisive conditions;
Enhances reliability by reacting to meaningful sentiment surges;
Offers a more psychologically-adjusted trend baseline compared to traditional MAs.
Visually:
When price is above WMA-Ω, a semi-transparent bullish fill highlights underlying strength;
When below, a bearish fill reveals dominant downward sentiment.
This feature is unique among public TradingView tools and provides an edge in identifying trend quality with psychological context.
✅ How to Use
Extreme Sentiment Zones (±100): Use as contrarian warning zones or signal dampeners.
Crosses of WMA-Ω: Treat these as psychological trend confirmations; price above indicates structurally bullish sentiment and vice versa.
Range-bound Bias: Between ±50, sentiment may be indecisive; watch for breakout or alignment with WMA-Ω.
Advanced Confluence: Combine with other Omega tools (e.g., Ω Bias Forecaster, Ω IV Walls) for powerful regime-based strategies.
Omega Market Mood Meter is ideal for discretionary and systematic traders who want a clean, multi-timeframe sentiment readout and a cutting-edge weighted trend engine grounded in market psychology.
SHA Multi Pivot Points -v1.0.0🔎Using Pivot Points in Trading
Traders use PPs to help determine predefined support and resistance levels to guide their trading strategies. In addition, traders identify potential price reversals, trend direction, and breakout opportunities:
Trend identification: PPs act as a reference level to gauge market sentiment. If the price opens above the PP and remains above it, traders interpret this as an uptrend. Conversely, if the price opens below the pivot point and stays below, it suggests a downtrend.
Support and resistance determination: Pivot levels are natural barriers where price reactions frequently occur. Traders may enter long positions near support levels, expecting a price bounce, or if the price approaches resistance levels, traders may consider shorting the asset.
Breakout trading: When the price breaks above resistance or support, it may indicate strong momentum for further movement.
Reversal identification: Traders also look for failed breakouts or price rejections at pivot levels to anticipate reversals.
Trading strategy combinations: Traders can improve accuracy by combining PPs with other technical analysis indicators.
1. Camarilla Pivot Points
📌 Overview:
Developed by Nick Scott in 1989, Camarilla Pivot Points are designed for short-term, intraday trading. Unlike traditional pivots, Camarilla levels are tighter and more responsive, making them useful in volatile markets.
📐 Key Levels:
It generates eight levels:
- Resistance: Initial Level (R1), Mid-range Level (R2), Sell Reversal Level (R3), Breakout Level (R4)
- Support: Initial Level (S1), Mid-range Level (S2), Buy Reversal Level (S3), Breakout Level (S4)
✅ How to Use:
- S1/R1 + RSI or volume divergence to confirm weak momentum and early reversals.
- S2/R2 with price action patterns to enter early on major moves before L3/H3 get tested.
- S3/R3: Mean-reversion zones → price often reverses.
- Break of S4/R4: Strong breakout → trend-following signal.
- Combine with volume or candlestick confirmation for entries.
🔹 2. Floor (Standard) Pivot Points
📌 Overview:
This is the most traditional pivot method, widely used by floor traders. It’s symmetrical and provides a clear central pivot point with equally spaced support and resistance levels.
📐 Key Levels:
- Povit Points : Average price (PPs)
- Resistance : First price ceiling (R1), Stronger ceiling (R2), Extreme resistance (R3)
- Support : First price floor (S1), Stronger floor (S2), Extreme support (S3)
✅ How to Use:
- Above PPs = bullish bias; Below PPs = bearish bias.
- S1/R1 are most used for intraday targets.
- S2–S3/R2–R3 indicate potential extreme moves.
- Often used in combination with momentum indicators.
🔹 3. Woodie Pivot Points
📌 Overview:
Woodie’s pivot formula gives double weight to the closing price, emphasizing the most recent session's sentiment.
📐 Key Levels:
- Povit Points : Weighted average (PPs)
- Resistance : First price ceiling (R1), Stronger resistance (R2)
- Support : First price floor (S1), Stronger support (S2)
✅ How to Use:
- Works best in fast-moving markets.
- PPs acts as a momentum-based balance level.
- Good for scalpers and momentum traders.
🔹 4. Fusion Pivot Points
📌 Overview:
This method differs significantly — it calculates only one support and one resistance level, adjusting based on the relationship between the open and close.
📐 Key Levels:
- Povit Points : Single directional (PPs)
- Resistance : Potential ceiling (R)
- Support : Potential floor (S)
✅ How to Use:
- Not symmetrical → more responsive to price behavior.
- Best for breakout or reversal strategies.
- Use when you're expecting directional momentum.
🔹 5. Classic Pivot Points (Traditional)
📌 Overview:
Also known as Standard or Traditional Pivot Points, this is the default method used by most charting platforms. It offers a balanced and simple framework.
📐 Key Levels:
- Povit Points : Central price level (PPs)
- Resistance : First ceiling (R1), Stronger resistance (R2), Extreme resistance (R3)
- Support : First floor (S1), Stronger floor (S2), Extreme support (S3)
✅ How to Use:
- PPs is the market’s equilibrium point.
- Helps define market structure, bias, and trade zones.
- Combine with order blocks, RSI, or MACD for confirmation.
📊 Summary Comparison :
1. Camarilla Pivot Points
- Focus : Mean Reversion & Breakouts
- Best Use : Scalping, Day Trading
2. Floor Pivot Points
- Focus : General Support/Resistance
- Best Use : Intraday, Swing
3. Woodie Pivot Points
- Focus : Recent Close Emphasis
- Best Use : Momentum Trading
4. Fusion Pivot Points
- Focus : Trend/Breakout
- Best Use : Directional Breakouts
5. Classic Povit Points
- Focus : Market Structure
- Best Use : General Use
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information and tools provided in this script are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Trading in the financial markets involves risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions. Always do your own research, use proper risk management, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions.
