Pi-cycle top for Bitcoin bull-runUsage
Whenever the Pi-Cycle top conditions are met, the red circle appears at the bottom of the chart. Theoretically, this marks the top of the bull-run in Bitcoin within 3 days.
Credit and overview
Indicator Overview
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days.
It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.
Note: The multiple is of the price values of the 350DMA not the number of days.
For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking.
It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.
It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. Though in this instance it does so with a high degree of accuracy over the past 7 years.
How It Can Be Used
Pi Cycle Top is useful to indicate when the market is very overheated. So overheated that the shorter term moving average, which is the 111 day moving average, has reached a x2 multiple of the 350 day moving average. Historically it has proved advantageous to sell Bitcoin at this time in Bitcoin’s price cycles.
Created By Philip Swift
Tìm kiếm tập lệnh với "bitcoin"
BTC and ETH Long strategy - version 1I will start with a small introduction about myself. I'm now trading cryto currencies manually for almost 2 years. I decided to start after watching a documentary on the TV showing people who made big money during the Bitcoin pump which happened at the end of 2017.
The next day, I asked myself "Why should I not give it a try and learn how to trade".
This was in February 2018 and the price of Bitcoin was around 11500USD.
I didn't know how to trade. In fact, I didn't know the trading industry at all.
So, my first step into trading was to open an account with a broken. Then I directly bought 200$ worst of BTC . At that time, I saw the graph and thought "This can only go back in the upward direction!" :)
I didn't know anything about Stop loss, Take profit and Risk management.
Today, almost 2 years after, I think that I know how to trade and can also confirm that I still hold this bag of 200$ of bitcoin from 2018 :)
I did spend the 2 last years to learn technical analysis , risk management and leverage trading.
Today (14/05/2020), I know what I'm doing and I'm happy to see that the 2 last years have been positive in terms of gains. Of course, I did not make crazy money with my saving but at least I made more than if I would have kept it in my bank account.
Even if I like trading, I have a full time job which requires my full energy and lots of focus, so, the biggest problem I had is that I didn't have enough time to look at the charts.
Also, I realized that sometimes, neither technical analysis , nor fundamentals worked with crypto currency (at least for short time trading). So, as I have a developer background I decided to try to have a look at algo trading.
The goal for me was neither to make complex algos nor to beat the market but just to automate my trading with simple bot catching the big waves.
I then started to take a look at TV pine script and played with it.
I did my first LONG script in February 2020 to Long the BTC Market. It has some limitations but works well enough for me for the time being. Even if the real trades will bring me half of what the back testing shows, this will still be a lot more than what I was used to win during the last 2 years with my manual trading.
So, here we are! Below you will find some details about my first LONG script. I'm happy to share it with you.
Feel free to play with it, give your comments and bring improvements to it.
But please note that it only works fine with the candle size and crypto pair that I have mentioned below. If you use other settings this algo might loose money!
- Crypto pairs : XBTUSD and ETHXBT
- Candle size: 2 Hours
- Indicator used: Volatility , MACD (12, 26, 7), SMA (100), SMA (200), EMA (20)
- Default StopLoss: -1.5%
- Entry in position if: Volatility < 2%
AND MACD moving up
AND AME (20) moving up
AND SMA (100) moving up
AND SMA (200) moving up
AND EMA (20) > SAM (100)
AND SMA (100) > SMA (200)
- Exit the postion if: Stoploss is reached
OR EMA (20) crossUnder SMA (100)
Here is a summary of the results for this script:
XBTUSD : 01/01/2019 --> 14/05/2020 = +107%
ETHXBT : 01/01/2019 --> 14/05/2020 = +39%
ETHUSD : 01/01/2019 --> 14/05/2020 = +112%
It is far away from being perfect. There are still plenty of things which can be done to improve it but I just wanted to share it :) .
Enjoy playing with it....
Hash Ribbons Backtest - Bitcoin Beats YT
Hello Hello Hello and welcome back to Bitcoin Beats!
This is a script written by capriole_charles
Go check out the original!
I have added leverage and stoploss % but also made it a strategy so we can look back at past trades to see patterns and profit.
Personally I feel this is not enough data to trade off as BTC is such a young asset. However I have seen other models similar to this for other assets that hold strong.
Trade safe!
Good bye from bitcoin beats!
Not Meant For The 1H! My Bad! higher timeframes are better!
The "Spring" is the confirmed Miner capitulation period:
The 1st "gray" circle is the start of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses UNDER 2 month Hash Rate)
Last "green" circle is the end of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses OVER 2 month Hash Rate)
The "greener" the spring gets (up until blue) represents Hash Rate recovery (it is increasing)
The "blue" circle is the first instance of positive momentum following recovery of Hash Rate (1m HR > 2m HR). This is historically a rewarding place to buy with limited downside.
VIX MonitorSimple VIX Monitor to track spikes.
Spikes in VIX are often followed by big moves up in stocks.
Useful when paired with "Correlation & Beta" Indicator.
For Bitcoin Traders: when Bitcoin is highly correlated to Stocks (such as now) it could be a good opportunity for a short-term long trade.
2-Year MA MultiplierIndicator built by lookintobitcoin specifically for identifying ideal Bitcoin buy and sell regions.
lookintobitcoin describes this indicator as:
"The 2-Year MA Multiplier is intended to be used as a long term investment tool.
It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns.
To do this, it uses a moving average (MA) line, the 2yr MA, and also a multiplication of that moving average line, 2yr MA x5.
Note: the x5 multiplication is of the price values of the 2yr moving average, not of its time period.
Buying Bitcoin when price drops below the 2yr MA (green line) has historically generated outsized returns. Selling Bitcoin when price goes above the 2yr MA x 5 (red line) has been historically effective for taking profit."
BEST Mayer MultipleHello traders
I'm not a HODLer by any means. I know when to sell (or I think I know....) when an asset starts going against me too much.
Even if it's a "long-term" investment.
My mentor used to telling me this: "If a short-term trade becomes a long-term investment, then you're in for a hell of a ride".
I have no clue if Bitcoin/BTC will go back up or not - I don't even care because I'm an intraday trader.
What if BTC was actually a way to accumulate more fiat? Satoshi fooled us
I coded this Mayer Multiple according to the specifications below. By the way, I'm a big fan of Willy Woo. I've been monitoring all his work since I learned about crypto (10 minutes ago.... it's a joke come on)
charts.woobull.com
Scaling
To respect the Mayer's multiple model, I recommend to select the Logarithmic scaling as shown below
imgur.com
What Mayer's model says
Using the reference below, the model says we're in the oversold zone. But, we can be in that zone for months/years...
When a model says an asset could bounce in a 1000-7000 USD range... well... I don't know how I would be able to perform optimally with that insight. This is very subjective and not a recommendation.
Mayer's Multiple model reference
All the BEST
Dave
Blockchain Artificial Neural NetworksI found a very high correlation in a research-based Artificial Neural Networks.(ANN)
Trained only on daily bars with blockchain data and Bitcoin closing price.
NOTE: It does not repaint strictly during the weekly time frame. (TF = 1W)
Use only for Bitcoin .
Blockchain data can be repainted in the daily time zone according to the description time.
Alarms are available.
And you can also paint bar colors from the menu by region.
After making reminders, let's share the details of this interesting research:
INPUTS :
1. Average Block Size
2. Api Blockchain Size
3. Miners Revenue
4. Hash Rate
5. Bitcoin Cost Per Transaction
6. Bitcoin USD Exchange Trade Volume
7. Bitcoin Total Number of Transactions
OUTPUTS :
1. One day next price close (Historical)
TRAINING DETAILS :
Learning cycles: 1096436
AutoSave cycles: 100
Grid :
Input columns: 7
Output columns: 1
Excluded columns: 0
Training example rows: 446
Validating example rows: 0
Querying example rows: 0
Excluded example rows: 0
Duplicated example rows: 0
Network :
Input nodes connected: 7
Hidden layer 1 nodes: 5
Hidden layer 2 nodes: 0
Hidden layer 3 nodes: 0
Output nodes: 1
Controls :
Learning rate: 0.1000
Momentum: 0.8000
Target error: 0.0100
Training error: 0.010571
The average training error is really low, almost worth the target.
Without using technical analysis data, we established Artificial Neural Networks with blockchain data.
Interesting!
Yope BTC PL channelThis is a new version of the old "Yope BTC tops channel", but modified to reflect a power-law curve fitted, similar to the model proposed by Harold Christopher Burger in his medium article "Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth".
My original tops channel fitting is still there for comparison. In fact, it looks like the old tops channel was a bit too pessimistic.
Note that these channels are still pure naive curve-fitting, and do not represent an underlying model that explains it, like is the case for PlanB's "Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity" which uses Stock-to-Flow.
The motivation for this exercise is to observe how long this empirical extrapolation is valid. Will the price of bitcoin stay in either of both channels?
Note on usage: This script _only_ works with the BLX "BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin" in the 1D, 3D and 1W time-frames!
It may be necessary to zoom in and out a few times to overcome drawing glitches caused by the extreme time-shifting of plots in order to draw the extrapolated part.
NVT Dynamic Colored with Signals [aamonkey]NVT Dynamic
This is the dynamic version of my " Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions " indicator.
The dynamic NVT indicator is based on the Network Value to Transactions.
Definition:
NVT = Network Value / Daily Transaction Volume
Advantages:
Because BTC is a very young asset, it can be a good idea to have relatively high and low NVT values that change over time.
Signals:
When the NVT turns green = buy opportunity
NVT turns red = sell opportunity
REAL STRATEGY : Dow_Factor_MFI/RSI_DVOG_StrategyI'm actually one of those who think it's more important to extract clues from indicators than strategy, but I wanted to test the data about the probability and dow factor I've shared for a long time.
Usually, Bitcoin is used as an eye stain for strategy success, since the graph has increased significantly from the beginning.
To prevent this, I used a commission and in the last lines of document I shared Bitmex's Bitcoin and Ethereum 1W test results.
I don't think there's a factor to repaint. ( Warn me if u see or observe )
I considered Bitcoin because I found working with liquid parities much more realistic.
Ethereum and Bitmex have been featured as a spot and may soon find a place at the CME , so I've evaluated the Ethereum .
But since the Ethereum Bitmex was also spot new, I deleted results that were less than 10 closed trades.
Since the Dow Theory also looks at the harmony in the indices, just try it in the Cryptocurrency market.
Use as indicator in other markets. Support with channels, trend lines with big periods and other supportive indicators.
And my personal suggestion : Use this script and indicator TF : 4H and above.
Specifications :
Commission. ( % 0.125 )
Switchable Methods ( Relative Strength Index / Money Flow Index )
Alarms. (Buy / Sell )
Position closure when horizontal market rates weighs.
Progressive gradual buy/sell alarms.
Clean code layout that will not cause repaint. (Caution : source = close )
Switchable barcolor option (I / 0 )
*****Test results :*****
drive.google.com
Summary:
It was a realistic test.
It has achieved great success in some markets, but as I mentioned earlier, use it only to gain insight into the price movements of cryptos.
Use as indicator in other markets.
This code is open source under the MIT license. If you have any improvements or corrections to suggest, please send me a pull request via the github repository : github.com
Stay tuned ! Noldo.
Noro's Bitcoin market capitalizationValue calculation method:
Capitalization of all crypto - capitalization of altcoins = bitcoin market capitalization
or
TOTAL - TOTAL2 = bitcoin market capitalization
The Golden Ratio MultiplierBy Philip Swift
As Bitcoin continues to progress on its adoption journey, we learn more about its growth trajectory.
Rather than Bitcoin price action behaving like a traditional stock market share price, we see it act more like a technology being adopted at an exponential rate.
This is because Bitcoin is a network being adopted by society, and because it is decentralised money with limited supply, its price is a direct representation of that adoption process.
There are a number of regression analysis tools and stock to flow ratio studies that are helping us to understand the direction of Bitcoin’s adoption curve.
The new tool outlined in this paper brings an alternative degree of precision to understanding Bitcoin’s price action over time. It will demonstrate that Bitcoin’s adoption is not only following a broad growth curve but appears to be following established mathematical structures.
In doing so, it also:
Accurately and consistently highlights intracycle highs and lows for Bitcoin’s price.
Picks out every market cycle top in Bitcoin’s history.
Forecasts when Bitcoin will top out in the coming market cycle.
To begin, we will use the 350 day moving average of Bitcoin’s price. It has historically been an important moving average because once price moves above it, a new bull run begins.
more ...
medium.com
All rights reserved to Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto)
Strategy for The Bitcoin Buy/Sell IndicatorThis is the strategy for
Starting with a capital of $3,000 XBT , one might have $15,975 dollar worth of XBT plus whatever the bitcoin has appreciated over the years.
The Sharpe Ratio: 0.586, Net Profit is 532%, 57 closed trades from 2017 till today, Profit factor of 3.745 (aka for every dollar loss, there is 3.745 dollar profit) with 14% drawdown .
Let that sink in.
NVT Signal with RMA and thresholds [alertable]NVT Signal, or NVTS, is an indicator that compares the market cap of Bitcoin to the aggregate USD value of daily transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. It is a value indicator that shows a multiple of Bitcoin price against the actual usage of its blockchain. When the NVTS is low, it suggests Bitcoin price is low relative to the amount of utility the network provides, and vice versa.
For more information on NVTS, visit medium.com
This indicator aims to provide the following:
1. An open-source implementation of NVTS on Tradingview, as the most popular one currently is closed-source.
2. To provide two simple ways to define and visualize "overbought" or "oversold" conditions using the NVTS. Here, we have absolute value of NVTS & deviation from a long-term moving average.
3. Crude integration into Tradingview's alert system.
What this indicator CANNOT do:
1. Timeframes below 1d.
2. Signals based on statistical analyses, such as seen in Bollinger Bands et al. (However, with the appropriate type of account, you can add BBands on top of this indicator.)
I would like to express my gratitude to Willy Woo, Chris Burniske and Dimitry Kalichkin for their work on NVT Ratio and NVT Signal, without which my indicator would not have been created.
Feel free to fork & improve, or experiment with settings. I hope this indicator will be useful to someone.
Alpha-Sutte ModelThe Alpha-Sutte model is an ongoing project run by Ansari Saleh Ahmar, a lecturer and researcher at Universitas Negeri Makassar in Indonesia, that attempts to make forecasts for time series like how Arima and Holt-Winters models do. Currently Ahmar and his team have conducted research and published papers comparing the efficacy of the Alpha-Sutte and other models, such as Arima and Holt-Winters, on topics ranging from forecasting Turkey's CPI data, Bitcoin prices, Apple's stock prices, primary energy supply of Indonesia, to infant mortality rates in China.
The Alpha-Sutte model in comparison to the other two models listed above shows promise in providing a more accurate forecast, and the project has been able to receive some of its funding from organizations such as the US Agency for International Development, which is a part of the US Federal Government, so maybe the project has some actual merit.
How it works:
In this model there are four values presented at the top of the window.
1) The first value in blue is the value of the Alpha-Sutte model whose purpose is to forecast the price of the current bar.
2) The second value in yellow is an adaptive version of the Alpha-Sutte model that I made. The purpose of the adaptive Alpha-Sutte model is to expand upon the Alpha-Sutte by allowing new information to be introduced, causing the value to change during the current period, hence the adaptiveness of it.
3) The third value in aqua is the moving average of the low% Sutte line which is a predictive line that is based off of the close and low of the current and previous periods.
4) The fourth value in red is the moving average of the high% Sutte line which is a predictive line that is based off of the close and high of the current and previous periods.
Trend signals:
If low% Sutte (aqua value/line) is greater than high% Sutte (red value/line) then this is a buy signal.
If high% Sutte (red value/line) is greater than low% Sutte (aqua value/line) then this is a sell signal.
Caveat:
Even though this model's purpose is to forecast the future, will it be able to predict periods of large movements? No, of course not, but it will adjust quickly to try to make more accurate forecasts for the next period. This was also a reason why I made an adaptive version of this model to try to reduce some of the discrepancies between the Alpha Sutte and price when there is a large unexpected move.
*WARNING before using this I would highly recommend that you look up "Sutte Indicator" online and read some of the papers about this model before you use this , even though this model has shown merit when compared to Arima and Holt-Winter models this is still an ongoing project.*
Hopefully this project will actually come to something in the near future as the calculation for this time series predictive model is much easier to calculate and program in pine editor than something like an Arima model.
*Also, if you know how to use R language there is a package for the "Alpha-Sutte model".*
Moving Average 300 by WM - Bitcoin reversal key ?Bonjour à tous, c'est un grand plaisir que nous ajoutons le MA 300 à votre boîte à outils ce qui à mon avis pourrait constituer un support essentiel pour la tendance BTC dans un proche avenir. Nous pensons qu'il serait possible que le Bitcoin puisse mettre un terme à la tendance baissière en l'effleurant :-) Historiquement le Bitcoin n'a jamais descendu sous la barre du MA 200. Je vous souhaite de connaître beaucoup de succès lors de vos prochaines transactions et n'oubliez pas la tendance est votre amis!! Crypto Mercy xx
WM
We are movement
Major Mayer MultipleAdjusted version of the BTC Mayer Multiple developed by Trace Mayer www.theinvestorspodcast.com
This version includes two novelties. The first one replaces BTC with Total Market Cap from 2016/2017 (depending on your moving averages) to present and the second is that we consider two Moving Averages to produce more detailed lows.
Renko CandlesticksRenko charts are awesome . They reduce noise by only painting a brick on the chart when price moves by a specified amount up/down. When the price reverses, it must go twice the specified amount before a brick is painted. Time is not a factor, just price movement. Sometimes however, you want the pros of a renko chart, but on a regular candlestick chart. This indicator attempts to do just that.
A band is placed around price action showing the upper and lower bounds of what would be the current renko brick. The band only goes up/down when the price action itself moves up/down by the amount you specify. There are several ways of specifying the amount:
Fixed Price Amount: As the name says, you enter the brick size amount, i.e. the amount the price has to move before being in a new brick.
% of Price: This method will calculate the amount the price has to move as a percentage of the price itself. This way as price goes up/down, your brick size will adjust accordingly. Recommended values would be around 1% or less.
% of ATR: This option will make the brick size a percentage of the Average True Range. You can specify the ATR time frame to be different from your current time frame as well as the ATR length. For instance you could be on a 10 minute chart but specify the ATR to be daily with a length of 3 and a percentage amount of 15. This would make your brick size 15% of the Average True Range for the last 3 days. Recommended values are 10 to 20%.
Use this indicator on any time frame, even the 1 minute as the renko bands span the price action the same way on any time frame easily letting you know whether or not the price has moved appreciably, regardless of how much time has passed.
You can also set alerts easily, simply set the alert to crossing and choose “Renko Candlesticks” instead of “Value”. You will then see the options for the renko upper and lower bounds.
Tested on Bitcoin with the following values:
Fixed Price Amount: 30 ($30)
% of Price: 0.45 (if Bitcoin is $7000 then the brick size would be $31.50)
% of ATR: 15%, ATR Time Frame: 1D, ATR Length: 3 (3 days)
GBTC Premium to NAV IndicatorWhen bitcoin is in an uptrend, a very profitable strategy is to buy GBTC when premium to NAV is low, and sell when it reaches extremes. This can be far more profitable than buying bitcoin itself.
CryptoM173's Gimme MoneyLatest version. Nobody gave me feedback and managing requests to add people became a PITA. Enjoy.
I like money, you like money, this set up has the potential to make a LOT of it. That being said, I do NOTmake any warranties of this making you money, nor do I guarantee you will NOT lose money. In the end, you're the one configuring it and interpreting the results. Providing that you DO set it up correctly and it makes you obscene amounts of money, donations are always welcome (addresses below).
Before you start, it's probably you read EVERYTHING below.
You'll have to do some tweaking of the MA's to find a strat that best suits your needs. It is an indicator you're welcome to use to assist in your trading decisions. I made this script for renko charts and trading bitcoin -1.64% because the standard strat wasn't working out. if you find you're getting a lot of consecutive colored bars or crosses on Renko, you may need to switch from ATR 14 to something like Traditional 50. You will need to adjust the "box value" for traditional renko to fit the asset you're working with, on the time frame you're trading on. Smaller values (i.e. on bitcoin -1.64% I use a box value of 50 on 4hr and 1D with absurd success) but you need to make sure they're not too small, otherwise small moves may appear larger than they are, resulting in a bunch of break-even trades. If you're going to be trading cryptocurrency, it's easiest to switch back to ATR14 to get an idea of the Average Trading range to have a reference point to start from trading btc -1.64% (i.e .000034 rather than 50).
It's a great tool if you're looking to carry both swap and futs positions and keep an eye on the short term swap opportunities while monitoring the status of your futs position and help decide whether or not to close a long at a correction or not and while this strategy has been most effective for me with Renko bars, it's been very useful for monitoring futs positions on traditional charts.
For access, feel free to DM -0.34% me on twitter, @CryptoM173
If you're the generous type, feel free to donate Bitcoin to: 3BMEXWz6Es7iLdi9zAyMWWHHZPNbMKPqrV
BTC Price Spread - Coinbase & Futs - Premiums & DiscountsThis indicator takes the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and the futures price on Mex, and compares it the average price of Bitcoin across other major exchanges.
This essentials give us a spread at which Bitcoin is going for.
In turn, this could be a possible tool to help determine market sentiment.
This indicator was created for experimental purposes.
Use at your own digression.
Mayer MultipleFollowing Preston Pysh's "Bitcoin Mayer Multiple" study, I made this simple script to plot the Mayer multiple by calculating the ratio between bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average. It also plots the moving average of ratio itself.
Mayer Multiple Buy PriceFollowing Preston Pysh's "Bitcoin Mayer Multiple" study, I made this simple script to plot the recommended buy price based on the calculated 2.4x ratio between bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average. The ratio and SMA length have default values of 2.4 and 200 and can be adjusted.
