Float Rotation TrackerFloat Rotation Tracker - Quick Reference Guide
What is Float Rotation?
Float Rotation = Cumulative Daily Volume ÷ Float
Example:
Float = 5,000,000 shares
Day Volume = 7,500,000 shares
Rotation = 7.5M ÷ 5M = 1.5x (150%)
When rotation hits 1x (100%), every available share has theoretically changed hands at least once during the trading day.
Why It Matters
RotationMeaningImplication0.5x50% of float tradedInterest building1.0x 🔥Full rotationExtreme interest confirmed2.0x 🔥🔥Double rotationVery high volatility3.0x 🔥🔥🔥Triple rotationRare - maximum volatility
Key insight: High rotation on a low-float stock = explosive potential
Float Classification
Float SizeClassificationRotation Impact≤ 2M🔥 MICROExtremely volatile, fast rotation≤ 5M🔥 VERY LOWExcellent momentum potential≤ 10MLOWGood for rotation plays> 10MNORMALNeeds massive volume to rotate
Rule of thumb: Focus on stocks with float under 10M for meaningful rotation signals.
Reading the Indicator
Rotation Line (Yellow)
Shows current rotation level
Rises throughout the day as volume accumulates
Crosses horizontal level lines at milestones
Level Lines
LineColorMeaning0.5Gray dotted50% rotation1.0Orange solidFull rotation2.0Red solidDouble rotation3.0Fuchsia solidTriple rotation
Volume Bars (Bottom)
ColorMeaningGrayBelow average volumeBlueNormal volume (1-2x avg)GreenHigh volume (2-5x avg)LimeExtreme volume (5x+ avg)
Milestone Markers
Circles appear when rotation crosses key levels
Labels show "50%", "1x", "2x", "3x🔥"
Background Color
Changes as rotation increases
Darker = higher rotation level
Info Table Explained
FieldDescriptionFloatShare count + classification (MICRO/LOW/NORMAL)SourceAuto ✓ = TradingView data / Manual = user enteredRotationCurrent rotation with emoji indicatorRotation %Same as rotation × 100Day VolumeCumulative volume todayTo XxVolume needed to reach next milestoneBar RVolCurrent bar's relative volumeMilestonesWhich levels have been hit todayPer RotationShares equal to one full rotationEst. TimeBars until next milestone (at current pace)
Trading with Float Rotation
Entry Signals
Early Entry (Higher Risk, Higher Reward)
Rotation approaching 0.5x
Strong price action (bull flag, breakout)
Rising relative volume bars
Confirmation Entry (Lower Risk)
Rotation at or above 1x
Price holding above VWAP
Continuous green/lime volume bars
Late Entry (Highest Risk)
Rotation above 2x
Only enter on clear pullback pattern
Tight stop required
Exit Signals
Warning Signs:
Rotation very high (2x+) with declining volume bars
Reversal candle after milestone
Price breaking below key support
Volume bars turning gray/blue after being green/lime
Take Profits:
Partial profit at each rotation milestone
Trail stop as rotation increases
Full exit on reversal pattern after 2x+ rotation
Best Setups
Ideal Float Rotation Play
✓ Float under 10M (preferably under 5M)
✓ Stock up 5%+ on the day
✓ News catalyst driving interest
✓ Rotation approaching or exceeding 1x
✓ Price above VWAP
✓ Volume bars green or lime
✓ Clear chart pattern (bull flag, flat top)
Red Flags to Avoid
✗ Float over 50M (hard to rotate meaningfully)
✗ Rotation high but price declining
✗ Volume bars turning gray after spike
✗ No clear catalyst
✗ Price below VWAP with high rotation
✗ Late in day (3pm+) after 2x rotation
Float Data Sources
If auto-detect doesn't work, get float from:
SourceHow to FindFinvizfinviz.com → ticker → "Shs Float"Yahoo FinanceFinance.yahoo.com → Statistics → "Float"MarketWatchMarketwatch.com → ticker → ProfileYour BrokerUsually in stock details/fundamentals
Note: Float can change due to offerings, buybacks, lockup expirations. Check recent data.
Settings Guide
Conservative Settings
Alert Level 1: 0.75 (75%)
Alert Level 2: 1.0 (100%)
Alert Level 3: 2.0 (200%)
Alert Level 4: 3.0 (300%)
High Vol Multiplier: 2.0
Extreme Vol Multiplier: 5.0
Aggressive Settings
Alert Level 1: 0.3 (30%)
Alert Level 2: 0.5 (50%)
Alert Level 3: 1.0 (100%)
Alert Level 4: 2.0 (200%)
High Vol Multiplier: 1.5
Extreme Vol Multiplier: 3.0
Alert Setup
Recommended Alerts
100% Rotation (1x) - Primary signal
Most important milestone
Confirms extreme interest
High Rotation + Extreme Volume
Combined condition
Very high probability signal
How to Set
Right-click chart → Add Alert
Condition: Float Rotation Tracker
Select desired milestone
Set notification (popup/email/phone)
Set expiration
Common Questions
Q: Why is my float showing "Manual (no data)"?
A: TradingView doesn't have float data for this stock. Enter the float manually in settings after looking it up on Finviz or Yahoo Finance.
Q: The rotation seems too high/low - is the float wrong?
A: Possibly. Cross-check float on Finviz. Recent offerings or share structure changes may not be reflected in TradingView's data.
Q: What if float rotates early in the day?
A: Early 1x rotation (within first hour) is very bullish - indicates massive interest. Watch for continuation patterns.
Q: High rotation but price is dropping?
A: This is distribution - large holders are selling into demand. High rotation doesn't guarantee price direction, just volatility.
Q: Can I use this for swing trading?
A: The indicator resets daily, so it's designed for intraday use. You could note multi-day rotation patterns manually.
Quick Decision Matrix
RotationPrice ActionVolumeDecision<0.5xStrong upHighWatch, early stage0.5-1xConsolidatingSteadyPrepare entry1x+Breaking outIncreasingEntry on pattern1x+DroppingHighAvoid - distribution2x+Strong upExtremePartial profit, trail stop2x+Reversal candleDecliningExit or avoid
Workflow Integration
MORNING ROUTINE:
1. Scan for gappers (5%+, high volume)
2. Check float on each candidate
3. Apply Float Rotation Tracker
4. Prioritize lowest float with building rotation
DURING SESSION:
5. Watch rotation levels on active trades
6. Enter on patterns when rotation confirms (0.5-1x)
7. Scale out as rotation increases
8. Exit or trail after 2x rotation
END OF DAY:
9. Note which stocks hit 2x+ rotation
10. Review rotation vs price action
11. Learn patterns for future trades
Combining with Other Indicators
IndicatorHow to Use Together5 PillarsScreen for low-float stocks firstGap & GoCheck rotation on gappersBull FlagEnter bull flags with 1x+ rotationVWAPOnly trade rotation plays above VWAPRSIWatch for divergence at high rotation
Key Takeaways
Float size matters - Lower float = faster rotation = more volatility
1x is the key level - Full rotation confirms extreme interest
Volume quality matters - Green/lime bars better than gray
Combine with price action - Rotation confirms, patterns trigger
Know when you're late - 2x+ rotation is late stage
Check your float data - Wrong float = wrong rotation calculation
Happy Trading! 🔥
Tìm kiếm tập lệnh với "change"
Moving VWAP-KAMA CloudMoving VWAP-KAMA Cloud
Overview
The Moving VWAP-KAMA Cloud is a high-conviction trend filter designed to solve a major problem with standard indicators: Noise. By combining a smoothed Volume Weighted Average Price (MVWAP) with Kaufman’s Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA), this indicator creates a "Value Zone" that identifies the true structural trend while ignoring choppy price action.
Unlike brittle lines that break constantly, this cloud is "slow" by design—making it exceptionally powerful for spotting genuine trend reversals and filtering out fakeouts.
How It Works
This script uses a unique "Double Smoothing" architecture:
The Anchor (MVWAP): We take the standard VWAP and smooth it with a 30-period EMA. This represents the "Fair Value" baseline where volume has supported price over time.
The Filter (KAMA): We apply Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average to the already smoothed MVWAP. KAMA is unique because it flattens out during low-volatility (choppy) periods and speeds up during high-momentum trends.
The Cloud:
Green/Teal Cloud: Bullish Structure (MVWAP > KAMA)
Purple Cloud: Bearish Structure (MVWAP < KAMA)
🔥 The "Reversal Slingshot" Strategy
Backtests reveal a powerful behavior during major trend changes, particularly after long bear markets:
The Resistance Phase: During a long-term downtrend, price will repeatedly rally into the Purple Cloud and get rejected. The flattened KAMA line acts as a "concrete ceiling," keeping the bearish trend intact.
The Breakout & Flip: When price finally breaks above the cloud with conviction, and the cloud flips Green, it signals a structural regime change.
The "Slingshot" Retest: Often, immediately after this flip, price will drop back into the top of the cloud. This is the "Slingshot" moment. The old resistance becomes new, hardened support.
The Rally: From this support bounce, stocks often launch into a sustained, multi-month bull run. This setup has been observed repeatedly at the bottom of major corrections.
How to Use This Indicator
1. Dynamic Support & Resistance
The KAMA Wall: When price retraces into the cloud, the KAMA line often flattens out, acting as a hard "floor" or "wall." A break of this wall usually signals a genuine trend change, not just a stop hunt.
2. Trend Confirmation (Regime Filter)
Bullish Regime: If price is holding above the cloud, only look for Long setups.
Bearish Regime: If price is holding below the cloud, only look for Short setups.
No-Trade Zone: If price is stuck inside the cloud, the market is traversing fair value. Stand aside until a clear winner emerges.
3. Multi-Timeframe Versatility
While designed for trend confirmation on higher timeframes (4H, Daily), this indicator adapts beautifully to lower timeframes (5m, 15m) for intraday scalping.
On Lower Timeframes: The cloud reacts much faster, acting as a dynamic "VWAP Band" that helps intraday traders stay on the right side of momentum during the session.
Settings
Moving VWAP Period (30): The lookback period for the base VWAP smoothing.
KAMA Settings (10, 10, 30): Controls the sensitivity of the adaptive filter.
Cloud Transparency: Adjust to keep your chart clean.
Alerts Included
Price Cross Over/Under MVWAP
Price Cross Over/Under KAMA
Cloud Flip (Bullish/Bearish Trend Change)
Tip for Traders
This is not a signal entry indicator. It is a Trend Conviction tool. Use it to filter your entries from faster indicators (like RSI or MACD). If your fast indicator signals "Buy" but the cloud is Purple, the probability is low. Wait for the Cloud Flip
cd_sfp_CxGeneral:
This indicator is designed to assist users who trade the Swing Failure Pattern ( SFP ).
In technical literature (various definitions exist), an SFP is a situation where the price violates a previous swing level but fails to close beyond that level.
• (Liquidity Sweep)
• (Buyer or seller dominance)
• (Stop hunt)
• (Turtle Soup)
The general strategy is built upon seeking trade opportunities after an SFP is formed and conviction is established that the market direction has changed.
Components used to gather confirmation:
• Determining Bias: Periodic SAR
• Obtaining Breakout/Reversal Confirmation: Change in State Delivery (CISD)
• Defining the Buyer/Seller Block (Supply/Demand Zones): Mitg Blocks (Mitigation Blocks), FVG (Fair Value Gaps), and Standard Deviation Projection
• Key Levels: Previous HTF (Higher Time Frame) levels
• Setting Targets: Standard Deviation Projection
• Trade Management: Anchored VWAP and opposing blocks
• Time-Based Context: Session Killzone times
• Notifications: An alarm/alert system will be utilized to stay informed.
________________________________________
Details:
Swing and Swing Failure Pattern:
Swing Sweep Types (Liquidity Sweep):
1. Single
2. Consecutive (The liquidity of the entity that swept the liquidity is being swept)
Bias Determination
We need to filter out the numerous SFPs that occur across all time frames. Our first strong filter will be the Bias. We will only look for trades aligned with our bias.
We will use Periodic SAR (Stop and Reverse) to determine the bias. We compare the price with the SAR value from a Higher Time Frame than the one we are trading on.
• Price > SAR => Bullish Bias
• Price < SAR => Bearish Bias
Depending on the pair, H1 SAR may be chosen for scalp trades, and Daily/Weekly SAR for intraday and swing trades.
Key Levels
Strategies looking for trades after a liquidity grab generally state that the sweep / stop hunt movement should occur at a significant price level.
The most fundamental Key Level levels are (User can customize):
• Previous Week High & Low
• Previous Day High & Low
• Previous H4 High & Low
• Previous H1 High & Low
• Asia Killzone High & Low
• London Killzone High & Low
• New York Killzone High & Low
• Monday Range High & Low values
We will prefer SFP formations that occur when these levels are swept. When Key Levels are violated, an information label appears on the screen.
Blocks / Zones
To strengthen our hand, we will use three types of blocks/zones, either with Key Levels or separately. When an SFP structure is formed in these areas (along with bias and breakout confirmation), our expectation is for the price to continue in our desired direction. These regions are:
1. Mitigation Blocks (Mtg)
o (Details can be found in the cd_VWAP_mtg_Cx indicator)
o In short: A second candle, following a bullish candle, crosses its high but fails to close above it. We call this a sweep / SFP. When the price, which was expected to go to the low, instead makes a new high/close, an Mtg block is formed. (Buyers are dominant)
2. FVGs (Fair Value Gaps)
o We use classic FVG structures.
3. Standard Deviation Projection Boxes
o When we get an SFP structure + breakout confirmation (CISD), we use the Standard Deviation Projection to determine our profit-taking and take-profit levels.
o Based on the idea that the price often respects the range between -2 and -2.5 of the projection values, we box this range and use it as our area of interest. (Our expectation is for the price to reverse after reaching this target).
o Let's mark it on the chart.
Confirmation
To summarize what has been explained so far: we look for the price to form an SFP structure in levels/zones we deem important, aligned with our bias, and for the breakout to be confirmed with a CISD.
No single component is strong on its own, but the success rate increases when they occur together.
We observe the following as additional confirmation along with the CISD: a new Mtg block forming in the direction of the breakout, high-volume movement (with FVG and a large body), and respect for VWAPs, the resistance/support line, and the defense block.
Additional Confirmations with Breakouts:
• Defence block, new mtg and VWAP
• Resistance / Support Line:
Indicator Signals
The indicator marks all formed sweeps, selected key levels, blocks, the projection, and CISD confirmations on the screen. The candle where the CISD confirmation occurs is indicated by an arrow.
• Arrows with double short lines signify a CISD that follows an SFP occurring at a Key Level.
• All other CISD candle indications are shown with single-line arrows.
Trade Management
When selecting profit targets in trades (preferably), the projection, opposing blocks, and structures that have formed are taken into account. Do not neglect to look at the structures that have formed against you when entering a trade.
Menu Settings:
• For Mtg blocks, the trading timeframe or a higher timeframe can be selected.
• FVGs formed in the current timeframe are displayed when the price creates an SFP (in "Fvg" option).
• Deviation boxes are displayed when the price creates an SFP (in box).
• The SAR HTF setting (H1) for scalp trades may vary depending on the pair. Users trying trades on higher timeframes should increase the HTF setting.
o Example: If you are looking for a trade with an SFP structure on H1, the SAR HTF setting should be H4 or higher.
• VWAP lines are refreshed starting from the candle that executed the sweep when the price forms an SFP. The only setting to adjust is the source selection setting (hlc3 is selected).
• Time frames and Killzone / Special Zone settings for Key Levels can be changed/should be checked.
Alarms / Alerts:
The conditions that will trigger an alert can be selected from the menu.
• To receive an alert aligned with the bias, the "Alignment with bias" checkbox must be selected.
• The alert should be set on the timeframe where you plan to enter the trade.
• The display options do not affect the alarm conditions. (Example: FVGs are monitored even when the menu selection is "off").
• If the necessary conditions are met, the alarm is triggered on the new candle that opens after the CISD confirmation.
• The alarm will not be triggered more than once at the same Key Level.
The user can preferably select alerts:
• Bias-aligned or Bias-independent
• Sweep (without waiting for CISD)
• Sweep + CISD (without looking for other conditions)
• Sweep + Key Level + CISD (the swept level is a Key Level)
• Sweep + Mtg / Fvg / Dev. + CISD (SFP formed in any of the blocks)
• Sweep + Mtg + CISD (SFP formed in the Mtg block)
• Sweep + Fvg + CISD (SFP formed inside the FVG)
• Sweep + Deviation Box + CISD (SFP formed inside the Dev. Box)
• Sweep + Key Level + Mtg / Fvg / Dev. + CISD (SFP formed simultaneously at a Key Level and any of the blocks)
Trade Example:
• Conditions: Bias-aligned + Sweep + Mtg/Fvg/Dev (at least one) + CISD
• Extra Confirmations: Respect for the Defense Block + Respect for VWAP
• Target (TP): Projection between -2 and -2.5
I welcome your thoughts and suggestions regarding my indicator, which I believe will be successful in the long run by adhering to uncompromising risk management and a strict trading plan.
Happy Trading!
SR-ZnV2There are many support and resistance scripts out there. I was unable to find one that met all of my needs so I have expanded on the closest ones that I was able to discover. The ability to show persistent S/R levels by volume at various time frames automates much of the process for the user with unique and customizable features, the lastest dated of which are displayed by its time frame support/resistance strength and extend toward the right of the screen where they can be seen more clearly by price .
// Original script is thanks to tommyf1001, synapticex and additional modifications is thanks to Lij_MC. Credit to both of them for most of the logic behind this script. Since then I have made many changes to this script as noted below.
// Changed default S/R lines from plots to lines, and gave option to user to change between solid line, dashed line, or dotted line for both S/R lines.
// Added additional time frame and gave more TF options for TF1 other than current TF. Now you will have 4 time frames to plot S/R zones from.
// Gave user option to easily change line thickness for all S/R lines.
// Made it easier to change colors of S/R lines and zones by consolidating the options under settings (rather than under style).
// Added extensions to active SR Zones to extend all the way right.
// Added option to extend or not extend the previous S/R zones up to next S/R zone.
// Added optional time frame labels to active S/R zones, with left and right options as well as option to adjust how far to the right label is set.
// Fixed issue where the higher time frame S/R zone was not properly starting from the high/low of fractal. Now any higher time frame S/R will begin exactly at the High/Low points.
// Added to script a function that will prevent S/R zones from lower time frames displaying while on a higher time frame. This helps clean up the chart quite a bit.
// Created arrays for each time frame's lines and labels so that the number of S/R zones can be controlled for each time frame and limit memory consumption.
// New alert options added and customized alert messages.
Scientific Correlation Testing FrameworkScientific Correlation Testing Framework - Comprehensive Guide
Introduction to Correlation Analysis
What is Correlation?
Correlation is a statistical measure that describes the degree to which two assets move in relation to each other. Think of it like measuring how closely two dancers move together on a dance floor.
Perfect Positive Correlation (+1.0): Both dancers move in perfect sync, same direction, same speed
Perfect Negative Correlation (-1.0): Both dancers move in perfect sync but in opposite directions
Zero Correlation (0): The dancers move completely independently of each other
In financial markets, correlation helps us understand relationships between different assets, which is crucial for:
Portfolio diversification
Risk management
Pairs trading strategies
Hedging positions
Market analysis
Why This Script is Special
This script goes beyond simple correlation calculations by providing:
Two different correlation methods (Pearson and Spearman)
Statistical significance testing to ensure results are meaningful
Rolling correlation analysis to track how relationships change over time
Visual representation for easy interpretation
Comprehensive statistics table with detailed metrics
Deep Dive into the Script's Components
1. Input Parameters Explained-
Symbol Selection:
This allows you to select the second asset to compare with the chart's primary asset
Default is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), but you can change this to any symbol
Example: If you're viewing a Bitcoin chart, you might set this to "NASDAQ:TSLA" to see if Bitcoin and Tesla are correlated
Correlation Window (60): This is the number of periods used to calculate the main correlation
Larger values (e.g., 100-500) provide more stable, long-term correlation measures
Smaller values (e.g., 10-50) are more responsive to recent price movements
60 is a good balance for most daily charts (about 3 months of trading days)
Rolling Correlation Window (20): A shorter window to detect recent changes in correlation
This helps identify when the relationship between assets is strengthening or weakening
Default of 20 is roughly one month of trading days
Return Type: This determines how price changes are calculated
Simple Returns: (Today's Price - Yesterday's Price) / Yesterday's Price
Easy to understand: "The asset went up 2% today"
Log Returns: Natural logarithm of (Today's Price / Yesterday's Price)
More mathematically elegant for statistical analysis
Better for time-additive properties (returns over multiple periods)
Less sensitive to extreme values.
Confidence Level (95%): This determines how certain we want to be about our results
95% confidence means we accept a 5% chance of being wrong (false positive)
Higher confidence (e.g., 99%) makes the test more strict
Lower confidence (e.g., 90%) makes the test more lenient
95% is the standard in most scientific research
Show Statistical Significance: When enabled, the script will test if the correlation is statistically significant or just due to random chance.
Display options control what you see on the chart:
Show Pearson/Spearman/Rolling Correlation: Toggle each correlation type on/off
Show Scatter Plot: Displays a scatter plot of returns (limited to recent points to avoid performance issues)
Show Statistical Tests: Enables the detailed statistics table
Table Text Size: Adjusts the size of text in the statistics table
2.Functions explained-
calcReturns():
This function calculates price returns based on your selected method:
Log Returns:
Formula: ln(Price_t / Price_t-1)
Example: If a stock goes from $100 to $101, the log return is ln(101/100) = ln(1.01) ≈ 0.00995 or 0.995%
Benefits: More symmetric, time-additive, and better for statistical modeling
Simple Returns:
Formula: (Price_t - Price_t-1) / Price_t-1
Example: If a stock goes from $100 to $101, the simple return is (101-100)/100 = 0.01 or 1%
Benefits: More intuitive and easier to understand
rankArray():
This function calculates the rank of each value in an array, which is used for Spearman correlation:
How ranking works:
The smallest value gets rank 1
The second smallest gets rank 2, and so on
For ties (equal values), they get the average of their ranks
Example: For values
Sorted:
Ranks: (the two 2s tie for ranks 1 and 2, so they both get 1.5)
Why this matters: Spearman correlation uses ranks instead of actual values, making it less sensitive to outliers and non-linear relationships.
pearsonCorr():
This function calculates the Pearson correlation coefficient:
Mathematical Formula:
r = (nΣxy - ΣxΣy) / √
Where x and y are the two variables, and n is the sample size
What it measures:
The strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables
Values range from -1 (perfect negative linear relationship) to +1 (perfect positive linear relationship)
0 indicates no linear relationship
Example:
If two stocks have a Pearson correlation of 0.8, they have a strong positive linear relationship
When one stock goes up, the other tends to go up in a fairly consistent proportion
spearmanCorr():
This function calculates the Spearman rank correlation:
How it works:
Convert each value in both datasets to its rank
Calculate the Pearson correlation on the ranks instead of the original values
What it measures:
The strength and direction of the monotonic relationship between two variables
A monotonic relationship is one where as one variable increases, the other either consistently increases or decreases
It doesn't require the relationship to be linear
When to use it instead of Pearson:
When the relationship is monotonic but not linear
When there are significant outliers in the data
When the data is ordinal (ranked) rather than interval/ratio
Example:
If two stocks have a Spearman correlation of 0.7, they have a strong positive monotonic relationship
When one stock goes up, the other tends to go up, but not necessarily in a straight-line relationship
tStatistic():
This function calculates the t-statistic for correlation:
Mathematical Formula: t = r × √((n-2)/(1-r²))
Where r is the correlation coefficient and n is the sample size
What it measures:
How many standard errors the correlation is away from zero
Used to test the null hypothesis that the true correlation is zero
Interpretation:
Larger absolute t-values indicate stronger evidence against the null hypothesis
Generally, a t-value greater than 2 (in absolute terms) is considered statistically significant at the 95% confidence level
criticalT() and pValue():
These functions provide approximations for statistical significance testing:
criticalT():
Returns the critical t-value for a given degrees of freedom (df) and significance level
The critical value is the threshold that the t-statistic must exceed to be considered statistically significant
Uses approximations since Pine Script doesn't have built-in statistical distribution functions
pValue():
Estimates the p-value for a given t-statistic and degrees of freedom
The p-value is the probability of observing a correlation as strong as the one calculated, assuming the true correlation is zero
Smaller p-values indicate stronger evidence against the null hypothesis
Standard interpretation:
p < 0.01: Very strong evidence (marked with **)
p < 0.05: Strong evidence (marked with *)
p ≥ 0.05: Weak evidence, not statistically significant
stdev():
This function calculates the standard deviation of a dataset:
Mathematical Formula: σ = √(Σ(x-μ)²/(n-1))
Where x is each value, μ is the mean, and n is the sample size
What it measures:
The amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values
A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean
A high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range
Why it matters for correlation:
Standard deviation is used in calculating the correlation coefficient
It also provides information about the volatility of each asset's returns
Comparing standard deviations helps understand the relative riskiness of the two assets.
3.Getting Price Data-
price1: The closing price of the primary asset (the chart you're viewing)
price2: The closing price of the secondary asset (the one you selected in the input parameters)
Returns are used instead of raw prices because:
Returns are typically stationary (mean and variance stay constant over time)
Returns normalize for price levels, allowing comparison between assets of different values
Returns represent what investors actually care about: percentage changes in value
4.Information Table-
Creates a table to display statistics
Only shows on the last bar to avoid performance issues
Positioned in the top right of the chart
Has 2 columns and 15 rows
Populating the Table
The script then populates the table with various statistics:
Header Row: "Metric" and "Value"
Sample Information: Sample size and return type
Pearson Correlation: Value, t-statistic, p-value, and significance
Spearman Correlation: Value, t-statistic, p-value, and significance
Rolling Correlation: Current value
Standard Deviations: For both assets
Interpretation: Text description of the correlation strength
The table uses color coding to highlight important information:
Green for significant positive results
Red for significant negative results
Yellow for borderline significance
Color-coded headers for each section
=> Practical Applications and Interpretation
How to Interpret the Results
Correlation Strength
0.0 to 0.3 (or 0.0 to -0.3): Weak or no correlation
The assets move mostly independently of each other
Good for diversification purposes
0.3 to 0.7 (or -0.3 to -0.7): Moderate correlation
The assets show some tendency to move together (or in opposite directions)
May be useful for certain trading strategies but not extremely reliable
0.7 to 1.0 (or -0.7 to -1.0): Strong correlation
The assets show a strong tendency to move together (or in opposite directions)
Can be useful for pairs trading, hedging, or as a market indicator
Statistical Significance
p < 0.01: Very strong evidence that the correlation is real
Marked with ** in the table
Very unlikely to be due to random chance
p < 0.05: Strong evidence that the correlation is real
Marked with * in the table
Unlikely to be due to random chance
p ≥ 0.05: Weak evidence that the correlation is real
Not marked in the table
Could easily be due to random chance
Rolling Correlation
The rolling correlation shows how the relationship between assets changes over time
If the rolling correlation is much different from the long-term correlation, it suggests the relationship is changing
This can indicate:
A shift in market regime
Changing fundamentals of one or both assets
Temporary market dislocations that might present trading opportunities
Trading Applications
1. Portfolio Diversification
Goal: Reduce overall portfolio risk by combining assets that don't move together
Strategy: Look for assets with low or negative correlations
Example: If you hold tech stocks, you might add some utilities or bonds that have low correlation with tech
2. Pairs Trading
Goal: Profit from the relative price movements of two correlated assets
Strategy:
Find two assets with strong historical correlation
When their prices diverge (one goes up while the other goes down)
Buy the underperforming asset and short the outperforming asset
Close the positions when they converge back to their normal relationship
Example: If Coca-Cola and Pepsi are highly correlated but Coca-Cola drops while Pepsi rises, you might buy Coca-Cola and short Pepsi
3. Hedging
Goal: Reduce risk by taking an offsetting position in a negatively correlated asset
Strategy: Find assets that tend to move in opposite directions
Example: If you hold a portfolio of stocks, you might buy some gold or government bonds that tend to rise when stocks fall
4. Market Analysis
Goal: Understand market dynamics and interrelationships
Strategy: Analyze correlations between different sectors or asset classes
Example:
If tech stocks and semiconductor stocks are highly correlated, movements in one might predict movements in the other
If the correlation between stocks and bonds changes, it might signal a shift in market expectations
5. Risk Management
Goal: Understand and manage portfolio risk
Strategy: Monitor correlations to identify when diversification benefits might be breaking down
Example: During market crises, many assets that normally have low correlations can become highly correlated (correlation convergence), reducing diversification benefits
Advanced Interpretation and Caveats
Correlation vs. Causation
Important Note: Correlation does not imply causation
Example: Ice cream sales and drowning incidents are correlated (both increase in summer), but one doesn't cause the other
Implication: Just because two assets move together doesn't mean one causes the other to move
Solution: Look for fundamental economic reasons why assets might be correlated
Non-Stationary Correlations
Problem: Correlations between assets can change over time
Causes:
Changing market conditions
Shifts in monetary policy
Structural changes in the economy
Changes in the underlying businesses
Solution: Use rolling correlations to monitor how relationships change over time
Outliers and Extreme Events
Problem: Extreme market events can distort correlation measurements
Example: During a market crash, many assets may move in the same direction regardless of their normal relationship
Solution:
Use Spearman correlation, which is less sensitive to outliers
Be cautious when interpreting correlations during extreme market conditions
Sample Size Considerations
Problem: Small sample sizes can produce unreliable correlation estimates
Rule of Thumb: Use at least 30 data points for a rough estimate, 60+ for more reliable results
Solution:
Use the default correlation length of 60 or higher
Be skeptical of correlations calculated with small samples
Timeframe Considerations
Problem: Correlations can vary across different timeframes
Example: Two assets might be positively correlated on a daily basis but negatively correlated on a weekly basis
Solution:
Test correlations on multiple timeframes
Use the timeframe that matches your trading horizon
Look-Ahead Bias
Problem: Using information that wouldn't have been available at the time of trading
Example: Calculating correlation using future data
Solution: This script avoids look-ahead bias by using only historical data
Best Practices for Using This Script
1. Appropriate Parameter Selection
Correlation Window:
For short-term trading: 20-50 periods
For medium-term analysis: 50-100 periods
For long-term analysis: 100-500 periods
Rolling Window:
Should be shorter than the main correlation window
Typically 1/3 to 1/2 of the main window
Return Type:
For most applications: Log Returns (better statistical properties)
For simplicity: Simple Returns (easier to interpret)
2. Validation and Testing
Out-of-Sample Testing:
Calculate correlations on one time period
Test if they hold in a different time period
Multiple Timeframes:
Check if correlations are consistent across different timeframes
Economic Rationale:
Ensure there's a logical reason why assets should be correlated
3. Monitoring and Maintenance
Regular Review:
Correlations can change, so review them regularly
Alerts:
Set up alerts for significant correlation changes
Documentation:
Keep notes on why certain assets are correlated and what might change that relationship
4. Integration with Other Analysis
Fundamental Analysis:
Combine correlation analysis with fundamental factors
Technical Analysis:
Use correlation analysis alongside technical indicators
Market Context:
Consider how market conditions might affect correlations
Conclusion
This Scientific Correlation Testing Framework provides a comprehensive tool for analyzing relationships between financial assets. By offering both Pearson and Spearman correlation methods, statistical significance testing, and rolling correlation analysis, it goes beyond simple correlation measures to provide deeper insights.
For beginners, this script might seem complex, but it's built on fundamental statistical concepts that become clearer with use. Start with the default settings and focus on interpreting the main correlation lines and the statistics table. As you become more comfortable, you can adjust the parameters and explore more advanced applications.
Remember that correlation analysis is just one tool in a trader's toolkit. It should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and with a clear understanding of its limitations. When used properly, it can provide valuable insights for portfolio construction, risk management, and pair trading strategy development.
USD Session 8FX - LDN & NY (TF-invariant, Live + Table)What changed
Flexible session window
Removed the old fixed NY end-time selector.
Added new inputs so you can pick start time and length:
London: ldnStartSel (default 08:00) and ldnLenSel with options 45/60/90 minutes.
New York: nyStartSel (default 15:30) and nyLenSel with options 45/60/90 minutes.
The session string used by time(refTF, sess, tz) is now built dynamically as "HHMM-HHMM" from start + length (e.g., 1530-1630).
The label shown in the table (winTxt) auto-formats to HH:MM–HH:MM.
New time helpers
addMinutesHHMM() computes the end time from a "HHMM" start plus a minute length.
makeSess() produces the session string "HHMM-HHMM".
prettySess() converts "HHMM-HHMM" → "HH:MM-HH:MM".
(Kept on one line to avoid the “end of line without line continuation” error.)
Stability & UI fixes
Main table now uses table.new(f_pos(tablePos), ...) directly (no undeclared pos variable).
Trade Gate panel uses a properly initialized gatePosEnum before table.new(...) (fixes “Undeclared identifier”).
Minor cleanups; no logic changes.
What did NOT change
Scoring logic: returns → optional ATR normalization → weights → anti-USD vs USD-base averages → final score.
Thresholds: minAbsScore and live intrath alerts are unchanged.
VWAP Gate logic is the same (price vs VWAP consistency depending on USD Strong/Weak).
Freeze/Lock of values at session end is unchanged.
Alerts (session close bias, live threshold cross, and “Entry hint”) are unchanged.
Why this helps (practical impact)
Longer windows (e.g., NY 60/90, LDN 60/90) usually make the score more robust, filtering noise and reducing false signals—at the cost of a slightly slower signal.
You can now A/B test:
London: 45 vs 60 vs 90
New York: 45 vs 60 vs 90
without touching anything else; the indicator adapts automatically.
How to use
Choose Session (London / New York).
Set the start and length for that session.
The background highlight, the winTxt, and the entry/exit logic all follow the dynamic window.
Quick tips to reduce false signals
Try NY 60 or NY 90 and LDN 60 when volatility is choppy.
Keep ATR normalization ON (useATRnorm = true) for more comparable returns.
Consider raising minAbsScore slightly (e.g., from 0.12 → 0.15–0.20) if you still see noise.
Use the VWAP Gate panel: only act when Bias OK and at least one of the Top-3 pairs shows VWAP OK.
If you want, I can add quick presets (buttons) to jump between LDN 45/60/90 and NY 45/60/90, or plot two Scores side by side for direct comparison.
Power RSI Segment Runner [CHE] Power RSI Segment Runner — Tracks RSI momentum across higher timeframe segments to detect directional switches for trend confirmation.
Summary
This indicator calculates a running Relative Strength Index adapted to segments defined by changes in a higher timeframe, such as daily closes, providing a smoothed view of momentum within each period. It distinguishes between completed segments, which fix the final RSI value, and ongoing ones, which update in real time with an exponential moving average filter. Directional switches between bullish and bearish momentum trigger visual alerts, including overlay lines and emojis, while a compact table displays current trend strength as a progress bar. This segmented approach reduces noise from intra-period fluctuations, offering clearer signals for trend persistence compared to standard RSI on lower timeframes.
Motivation: Why this design?
Standard RSI often generates erratic signals in choppy markets due to constant recalculation over fixed lookback periods, leading to false reversals that mislead traders during range-bound or volatile phases. By resetting the RSI accumulation at higher timeframe boundaries, this indicator aligns momentum assessment with broader market cycles, capturing sustained directional bias more reliably. It addresses the gap between short-term noise and long-term trends, helping users filter entries without over-relying on absolute overbought or oversold thresholds.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
- Baseline Reference: Diverges from the classic Wilder RSI, which uses a fixed-length exponential moving average of gains and losses across all bars.
- Architecture Differences:
- Segments momentum resets at higher timeframe changes, isolating calculations per period instead of continuous history.
- Employs persistent sums for ups and downs within segments, with on-the-fly RSI derivation and EMA smoothing.
- Integrates switch detection logic that clears prior visuals on reversal, preventing clutter from outdated alerts.
- Adds overlay projections like horizontal price lines and dynamic percent change trackers for immediate trade context.
- Practical Effect: Charts show discrete RSI endpoints for past segments alongside a curved running trace, making momentum evolution visually intuitive. Switches appear as clean, extendable overlays, reducing alert fatigue and highlighting only confirmed directional shifts, which aids in avoiding whipsaws during minor pullbacks.
How it works (technical)
The indicator begins by detecting changes in the specified higher timeframe, such as a new daily bar, to define segment boundaries. At each boundary, it finalizes the prior segment's RSI by summing positive and negative price changes over that period and derives the value from the ratio of those sums, then applies an exponential moving average for smoothing. Within the active segment, it accumulates ongoing ups and downs from price changes relative to the source, recalculating the running RSI similarly and smoothing it with the same EMA length.
Points for the running RSI are collected into an array starting from the segment's onset, forming a curved polyline once sufficient bars accumulate. Comparisons between the running RSI and the last completed segment's value determine the current direction as long, short, or neutral, with switches triggering deletions of old visuals and creation of new ones: a label at the RSI pane, a vertical dashed line across the RSI range, an emoji positioned via ATR offset on the price chart, a solid horizontal line at the switch price, a dashed line tracking current close, and a midpoint label for percent change from the switch.
Initialization occurs on the first bar by resetting accumulators, and visualization gates behind a minimum bar count since the segment start to avoid early instability. The trend strength table builds vertically with filled cells proportional to the rounded RSI value, colored by direction. All drawing objects update or extend on subsequent bars to reflect live progress.
Parameter Guide
EMA Length — Controls the smoothing applied to the running RSI; higher values increase lag but reduce noise. Default: 10. Trade-offs: Shorter settings heighten sensitivity for fast markets but risk more false switches; longer ones suit trending conditions for stability.
Source — Selects the price data for change calculations, typically close for standard momentum. Default: close. Trade-offs: Open or high/low may emphasize gaps, altering segment intensity.
Segment Timeframe — Defines the higher timeframe for segment resets, like daily for intraday charts. Default: D. Trade-offs: Shorter frames create more frequent but shorter segments; longer ones align with major cycles but delay resets.
Overbought Level — Sets the upper threshold for potential overbought conditions (currently unused in visuals). Default: 70. Trade-offs: Adjust for asset volatility; higher values delay bearish warnings.
Oversold Level — Sets the lower threshold for potential oversold conditions (currently unused in visuals). Default: 30. Trade-offs: Lower values permit deeper dips before signaling bullish potential.
Show Completed Label — Toggles labels at segment ends displaying final RSI. Default: true. Trade-offs: Enables historical review but can crowd charts on dense timeframes.
Plot Running Segment — Enables the curved polyline for live RSI trace. Default: true. Trade-offs: Visualizes intra-segment flow; disable for cleaner panes.
Running RSI as Label — Displays current running RSI as a forward-projected label on the last bar. Default: false. Trade-offs: Useful for quick reads; may overlap in tight scales.
Show Switch Label — Activates RSI pane labels on directional switches. Default: true. Trade-offs: Provides context; omit to minimize pane clutter.
Show Switch Line (RSI) — Draws vertical dashed lines across the RSI range at switches. Default: true. Trade-offs: Marks reversal bars clearly; extends both ways for reference.
Show Solid Overlay Line — Projects a horizontal line from switch price forward. Default: true. Trade-offs: Acts as dynamic support/resistance; wider lines enhance visibility.
Show Dashed Overlay Line — Tracks a dashed line from switch to current close. Default: true. Trade-offs: Shows price deviation; thinner for subtlety.
Show Percent Change Label — Midpoint label tracking percent move from switch. Default: true. Trade-offs: Quantifies progress; centers dynamically.
Show Trend Strength Table — Displays right-side table with direction header and RSI bar. Default: true. Trade-offs: Instant strength gauge; fixed position avoids overlap.
Activate Visualization After N Bars — Delays signals until this many bars into a segment. Default: 3. Trade-offs: Filters immature readings; higher values miss early momentum.
Segment End Label — Color for completed RSI labels. Default: 7E57C2. Trade-offs: Purple tones for finality.
Running RSI — Color for polyline and running elements. Default: yellow. Trade-offs: Bright for live tracking.
Long — Color for bullish switch visuals. Default: green. Trade-offs: Standard for uptrends.
Short — Color for bearish switch visuals. Default: red. Trade-offs: Standard for downtrends.
Solid Line Width — Thickness of horizontal overlay line. Default: 2. Trade-offs: Bolder for emphasis on key levels.
Dashed Line Width — Thickness of tracking and vertical lines. Default: 1. Trade-offs: Finer to avoid dominance.
Reading & Interpretation
Completed segment RSIs appear as static points or labels in purple, indicating the fixed momentum at period close—values drifting toward the upper half suggest building strength, while lower half implies weakness. The yellow curved polyline traces the live smoothed RSI within the current segment, rising for accumulating gains and falling for losses. Directional labels and lines in green or red flag switches: green for running momentum exceeding the prior segment's, signaling potential uptrend continuation; red for the opposite.
The right table's header colors green for long, red for short, or gray for neutral/wait, with filled purple bars scaling from bottom (low RSI) to top (high), topped by the numeric value. Overlay elements project from switch bars: the solid green/red line as a price anchor, dashed tracker showing pullback extent, and percent label quantifying deviation—positive for alignment with direction, negative for counter-moves. Emojis (up arrow for long, down for short) float above/below price via ATR spacing for quick chart scans.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
- Trend Following: Enter long on green switch confirmation after a higher high in structure; filter with table strength above midpoint for conviction. Pair with volume surge for added weight.
- Exits/Stops: Trail stops to the solid overlay line on pullbacks; exit if percent change reverses beyond 2 percent against direction. Use wait bars to confirm without chasing.
- Multi-Asset/Multi-TF: Defaults suit forex/stocks on 1H-4H with daily segments; for crypto, shorten EMA to 5 for volatility. Scale segment TF to weekly for daily charts across indices.
- Combinations: Overlay on EMA clouds for confluence—switch aligning with cloud break strengthens signal. Add volatility filters like ATR bands to debounce in low-volume regimes.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Signals confirm on bar close within segments, with running polyline updating live but gated by minimum bars to prevent flicker. Higher timeframe changes may introduce minor repaints on timeframe switches, mitigated by relying on confirmed HTF closes rather than intrabar peeks. Resource limits cap at 500 labels/lines and 50 polylines, pruning old objects on switches to stay efficient; no explicit loops, but array growth ties to segment length—suitable for up to 500-bar histories without lag.
Known limits include delayed visualization in short segments and insensitivity to overbought/oversold levels, as thresholds are inputted but not actively visualized. Gaps in source data reset accumulators prematurely, potentially skewing early RSI.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Start with EMA length 10, daily segments, and 3-bar wait for balanced responsiveness on hourly charts. For excessive switches in ranging markets, increase wait bars to 5 or EMA to 14 to dampen noise. If signals lag in trends, drop EMA to 5 and use 1H segments. For stable assets like indices, widen to weekly segments; tune colors for dark/light themes without altering logic.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This tool serves as a momentum visualization and switch detector layered over price action, aiding trend identification and confirmation in segmented contexts. It is not a standalone trading system, predictive model, or risk calculator—always integrate with broader analysis, position sizing, and stop-loss discipline. View it as an enhancement for discretionary setups, not automated alerts without validation.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)This implementation uses O(1) algorithm that eliminates the need to loop through all period values on each bar. It also generates valid WMA values from the first bar and is not returning NA when number of bars is less than period.
## Overview and Purpose
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) is a technical indicator that applies progressively increasing weights to more recent price data. Emerging in the early 1950s during the formative years of technical analysis, WMA gained significant adoption among professional traders through the 1970s as computational methods became more accessible. The approach was formalized in Robert Colby's 1988 "Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators," establishing it as a staple in technical analysis software. Unlike the Simple Moving Average (SMA) which gives equal weight to all prices, WMA assigns greater importance to recent prices, creating a more responsive indicator that reacts faster to price changes while still providing effective noise filtering.
## Core Concepts
* **Linear weighting:** WMA applies progressively increasing weights to more recent price data, creating a recency bias that improves responsiveness
* **Market application:** Particularly effective for identifying trend changes earlier than SMA while maintaining better noise filtering than faster-responding averages like EMA
* **Timeframe flexibility:** Works effectively across all timeframes, with appropriate period adjustments for different trading horizons
The core innovation of WMA is its linear weighting scheme, which strikes a balance between the equal-weight approach of SMA and the exponential decay of EMA. This creates an intuitive and effective compromise that prioritizes recent data while maintaining a finite lookback period, making it particularly valuable for traders seeking to reduce lag without excessive sensitivity to price fluctuations.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Length | 14 | Controls the lookback period | Increase for smoother signals in volatile markets, decrease for responsiveness |
| Source | close | Price data used for calculation | Consider using hlc3 for a more balanced price representation |
**Pro Tip:** For most trading applications, using a WMA with period N provides better responsiveness than an SMA with the same period, while generating fewer whipsaws than an EMA with comparable responsiveness.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Simplified explanation:**
WMA calculates a weighted average of prices where the most recent price receives the highest weight, and each progressively older price receives one unit less weight. For example, in a 5-period WMA, the most recent price gets a weight of 5, the next most recent a weight of 4, and so on, with the oldest price getting a weight of 1.
**Technical formula:**
```
WMA = (P₁ × w₁ + P₂ × w₂ + ... + Pₙ × wₙ) / (w₁ + w₂ + ... + wₙ)
```
Where:
- Linear weights: most recent value has weight = n, second most recent has weight = n-1, etc.
- The sum of weights for a period n is calculated as: n(n+1)/2
- For example, for a 5-period WMA, the sum of weights is 5(5+1)/2 = 15
**O(1) Optimization - Dual Running Sums:**
The key insight is maintaining two running sums:
1. **Unweighted sum (S)**: Simple sum of all values in the window
2. **Weighted sum (W)**: Sum of all weighted values
The recurrence relation for a full window is:
```
W_new = W_old - S_old + (n × P_new)
```
This works because when all weights decrement by 1 (as the window slides), it's mathematically equivalent to subtracting the entire unweighted sum. The implementation:
- **During warmup**: Accumulates both sums as the window fills, computing denominator each bar
- **After warmup**: Uses cached denominator (constant at n(n+1)/2), updates both sums in constant time
- **Performance**: ~8 operations per bar regardless of period, vs ~100+ for naive O(n) implementation
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** Unlike EMA which theoretically considers all historical data (with diminishing influence), WMA has a finite memory, completely dropping prices that fall outside its lookback window. This creates a cleaner break from outdated market conditions. The O(1) optimization achieves 12-25x speedup over naive implementations while maintaining exact mathematical equivalence.
## Interpretation Details
WMA can be used in various trading strategies:
* **Trend identification:** The direction of WMA indicates the prevailing trend with greater responsiveness than SMA
* **Signal generation:** Crossovers between price and WMA generate trade signals earlier than with SMA
* **Support/resistance levels:** WMA can act as dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends
* **Moving average crossovers:** When a shorter-period WMA crosses above a longer-period WMA, it signals a potential uptrend (and vice versa)
* **Trend strength assessment:** Distance between price and WMA can indicate trend strength
## Limitations and Considerations
* **Market conditions:** Still suboptimal in highly volatile or sideways markets where enhanced responsiveness may generate false signals
* **Lag factor:** While less than SMA, still introduces some lag in signal generation
* **Abrupt window exit:** The oldest price suddenly drops out of calculation when leaving the window, potentially causing small jumps
* **Step changes:** Linear weighting creates discrete steps in influence rather than a smooth decay
* **Complementary tools:** Best used with volume indicators and momentum oscillators for confirmation
## References
* Colby, Robert W. "The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators." McGraw-Hill, 2002
* Murphy, John J. "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets." New York Institute of Finance, 1999
* Kaufman, Perry J. "Trading Systems and Methods." Wiley, 2013
Parabolic SAR MTF LinesThe indicator shows the Parabolic SAR sign (price above or below the indicator) for several timeframes at once. You can see at a glance how the price is trending across higher and lower timeframes.
Note that, for lower timeframes, the line becomes yellow to the left because history is limited and there are not enough bars to calculate.
Other features (can be enabled in settings):
* each line can be enabled or disabled individually, so that unused ones can be hidden.
* simple trend detection based on the number of bullish and bearish timeframes; threshold can be changed in Settings.
* "Score" output: counting the net number of bullish and bearish timeframes
* "Trend" output: changes to bullish or bearish as the score goes over or under the threshold
* background color (green or red according to trend).
* alert for trend change.
* another alert with a separate threshold score for flexibility.
* score weights for further customization of trend detection and alerts. Input parameters are set in terms of score values instead of number of lines.
* input options to choose alert modes for trend and extra alerts. The options are "once per bar close" (default), "once per bar", "every time".
This indicator was based on MACD MTF Lines where all the logic and features came from.
Bull Market Support Band Alert (20W SMA & 21W EMA) - Multi-Alert═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🎯 WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES:
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
This indicator monitors the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) - a popular trend-following system that uses the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to identify major market trends. It alerts you when price crosses either moving average on any stock in your watchlist.
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📈 THE BULL MARKET SUPPORT BAND STRATEGY:
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- ABOVE both MAs = Bullish trend (consider holding/buying)
- BELOW both MAs = Bearish trend (consider caution/selling)
- CROSSING ABOVE = Potential trend change to bullish
- CROSSING BELOW = Potential trend change to bearish
Originally popularized by cryptocurrency analysts, the BMSB has proven effective across all markets for identifying major trend changes.
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⚡ KEY FEATURES:
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✅ Single alert monitors your ENTIRE watchlist
✅ Works on ANY timeframe (daily, 4H, 1H) while maintaining weekly MA accuracy
✅ Visual signals when crosses occur (green/red arrows)
✅ Real-time status table showing current values
✅ Background coloring for quick trend identification
✅ Customizable alert settings for crosses above/below
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🔔 HOW TO SET UP ALERTS:
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
1. Add this indicator to your chart
2. Click Alert (alarm icon)
3. Select "BMSB Watchlist Alert" → "BMSB Cross Alert"
4. Choose your alert frequency:
• "Once Per Bar" = Immediate alerts (for active traders)
• "Once Per Bar Close" = Confirmed signals (fewer false alarms)
5. CHECK "Apply to all symbols in watchlist" ← IMPORTANT!
6. Select your watchlist and create
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⚙️ RECOMMENDED SETTINGS:
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📍 FOR SWING TRADERS:
- Chart: Daily timeframe
- Alert Trigger: Once Per Bar Close
- Both crosses enabled
📍 FOR ACTIVE TRADERS:
- Chart: 4H or Daily timeframe
- Alert Trigger: Once Per Bar
- Both crosses enabled
📍 FOR LONG-TERM INVESTORS:
- Chart: Weekly timeframe
- Alert Trigger: Once Per Bar Close
- Focus on crosses above
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📊 VISUAL ELEMENTS:
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
- BLUE LINE = 20-week Simple Moving Average
- RED LINE = 21-week Exponential Moving Average
- GREEN ARROWS = Price crossed above BMSB
- RED ARROWS = Price crossed below BMSB
- GREEN BACKGROUND = Price above both MAs (bullish)
- RED BACKGROUND = Price below both MAs (bearish)
- STATUS TABLE = Current price position and MA values
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
💡 PRO TIPS:
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
1. The indicator calculates WEEKLY MAs regardless of your chart timeframe
2. Best used with liquid stocks/cryptos with good volume
3. Consider waiting for daily/weekly close for confirmation
4. Crosses are more significant after extended periods above/below
5. Works great with additional confirmation (volume, RSI, etc.)
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⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES:
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
- FREE accounts limited to 1 active alert
- Alerts check based on YOUR selected timeframe, not the weekly MA calculation
- False signals possible during ranging/choppy markets
- Not financial advice - use as one tool among many
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👨💻 AUTHOR'S NOTE:
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Built for traders who want to monitor multiple stocks efficiently without creating dozens of individual alerts. Perfect for identifying major trend changes across your entire portfolio with a single alert.
Tags: #BMSB #BullMarketSupportBand #20WeekSMA #21WeekEMA #TrendFollowing #MovingAverage #WatchlistAlert #MultiTimeframe #SwingTrading #TrendTrading
1D Enter AlertsThis is only a remaining of an experiment. I had real swing enter alerts, but it just made more sense to use classic TradingView alerts for horizontal / trendline / SMA breaks.
(Btw you can set up a horizontal alert in TradingView just by hovering the mouse on the chart so it's at the price point you aim for, and pressing "Alt + A").
Once this horizontal alert triggered I would usually wait for confirmation of the move on the 5m. If it's f. e. a break of an SMA and I'm not convinced yet, I might wait until end of the day. For exactly that purpose the following alert comes in handy:
"X Candle Close":
Is triggered 15m before market close - good reminder to check a stock again to see whether a resistance / support break was valid - and the stock should be entered as a swing, or maybe whether it should be closed as a loss.
"Z Trend Change: UP" + "Z Trend Change: DOWN":
Same as on 5m Exit Alert: meant to be only applied on SPY, and to have it set up to never end!
Criteria:
SPY broke through daily EMA 8 or daily SMA today, indicating an important short-term change on the daily chart.
Is triggered 15m before market close
More infos: www.reddit.com
Fibo Swing MFI by julzALGOOVERVIEW
Fibo Swing MFI by julzALGO blends MFI → RSI → Least-Squares smoothing to flag overbought/oversold swings and continuously plot Fibonacci retracements from the rolling high/low of the last 200 bars. It’s built to spot momentum shifts while giving you a clean, always-current fib map of the recent market range.
CORE PRINCIPLES
Hybrid Momentum Signal
- Uses MFI to integrate price and volume.
- Applies RSI to MFI for momentum clarity.
- Smooths the result with Least Squares regression to reduce noise.
Swing Identification
- Marks potential swing highs when momentum is overbought.
- Marks potential swing lows when momentum is oversold.
Fixed-Window Fibonacci Mapping
- Always calculates fib levels from the highest high and lowest low of the last 200 bars.
- This keeps fib zones consistent, independent of swing point detection.
Visual Clarity & Non-Repainting Logic
- Clean labels for OB/OS zones.
- Lines and levels update only as new bars confirm changes.
Adaptability
- Works on any market and timeframe.
- Adjustable momentum length, OB/OS thresholds, and smoothing.
HOW IT WORKS
- Computes Money Flow Index (MFI) from price & volume.
- Applies RSI to the MFI for clearer OB/OS momentum.
- Smooths the hybrid with a Least Squares (linear regression) filter.
- Swing labels appear when OB/OS conditions are met (green = swing low, red = swing high).
- Fibonacci retracements are always drawn from the highest high and lowest low of the last 200 bars (rolling window), independent of swing labels.
HOW TO USE
- Watch for OB/OS flips to mark potential swing highs/lows.
- Use the 200-bar fib grid as your active map of pullback levels and reaction zones.
- Combine fib reactions with your price action/volume cues for confirmation.
- Works across markets and timeframes.
SETTINGS
- Length – Period for both MFI and RSI.
- OB/OS Levels – Overbought/oversold thresholds (default 70/30).
- Smooth – Least-Squares smoothing length.
- Fibonacci Window – Fixed at 200 bars in this version (changeable in code via fibLen).
NOTES
- Logic is non-repainting aside from standard bar/label confirmation.
- Increase Length on very low timeframes to reduce noise.
- Swing labels help context; fibs are always based on the most recent 200-bar high/low range.
SUMMARY
Fibo Swing MFI by julzALGO is a momentum-plus-price action tool that merges MFI → RSI → smoothing to identify overbought/oversold swings and automatically plot Fibonacci retracements based on the rolling high/low of the last 200 bars. It’s designed to help traders quickly see potential reversal points and pullback zones, offering visual confluence between momentum shifts and fixed-window price structure.
DISCLAIMER
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade responsibly with proper risk management.
Kelly Position Size CalculatorThis position sizing calculator implements the Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Laboratories in 1956, to determine mathematically optimal position sizes for maximizing long-term wealth growth. Unlike arbitrary position sizing methods, this tool provides a scientifically solution based on your strategy's actual performance statistics and incorporates modern refinements from over six decades of academic research.
The Kelly Criterion addresses a fundamental question in capital allocation: "What fraction of capital should be allocated to each opportunity to maximize growth while avoiding ruin?" This question has profound implications for financial markets, where traders and investors constantly face decisions about optimal capital allocation (Van Tharp, 2007).
Theoretical Foundation
The Kelly Criterion for binary outcomes is expressed as f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* represents the optimal fraction of capital to allocate, b denotes the risk-reward ratio, p indicates the probability of success, and q represents the probability of loss (Kelly, 1956). This formula maximizes the expected logarithm of wealth, ensuring maximum long-term growth rate while avoiding the risk of ruin.
The mathematical elegance of Kelly's approach lies in its derivation from information theory. Kelly's original work was motivated by Claude Shannon's information theory (Shannon, 1948), recognizing that maximizing the logarithm of wealth is equivalent to maximizing the rate of information transmission. This connection between information theory and wealth accumulation provides a deep theoretical foundation for optimal position sizing.
The logarithmic utility function underlying the Kelly Criterion naturally embodies several desirable properties for capital management. It exhibits decreasing marginal utility, penalizes large losses more severely than it rewards equivalent gains, and focuses on geometric rather than arithmetic mean returns, which is appropriate for compounding scenarios (Thorp, 2006).
Scientific Implementation
This calculator extends beyond basic Kelly implementation by incorporating state of the art refinements from academic research:
Parameter Uncertainty Adjustment: Following Michaud (1989), the implementation applies Bayesian shrinkage to account for parameter estimation error inherent in small sample sizes. The adjustment formula f_adjusted = f_kelly × confidence_factor + f_conservative × (1 - confidence_factor) addresses the overconfidence bias documented by Baker and McHale (2012), where the confidence factor increases with sample size and the conservative estimate equals 0.25 (quarter Kelly).
Sample Size Confidence: The reliability of Kelly calculations depends critically on sample size. Research by Browne and Whitt (1996) provides theoretical guidance on minimum sample requirements, suggesting that at least 30 independent observations are necessary for meaningful parameter estimates, with 100 or more trades providing reliable estimates for most trading strategies.
Universal Asset Compatibility: The calculator employs intelligent asset detection using TradingView's built-in symbol information, automatically adapting calculations for different asset classes without manual configuration.
ASSET SPECIFIC IMPLEMENTATION
Equity Markets: For stocks and ETFs, position sizing follows the calculation Shares = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Share Price). This straightforward approach reflects whole share constraints while accommodating fractional share trading capabilities.
Foreign Exchange Markets: Forex markets require lot-based calculations following Lot Size = Kelly Fraction × Account Size / (100,000 × Base Currency Value). The calculator automatically handles major currency pairs with appropriate pip value calculations, following industry standards described by Archer (2010).
Futures Markets: Futures position sizing accounts for leverage and margin requirements through Contracts = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Margin Requirement). The calculator estimates margin requirements as a percentage of contract notional value, with specific adjustments for micro-futures contracts that have smaller sizes and reduced margin requirements (Kaufman, 2013).
Index and Commodity Markets: These markets combine characteristics of both equity and futures markets. The calculator automatically detects whether instruments are cash-settled or futures-based, applying appropriate sizing methodologies with correct point value calculations.
Risk Management Integration
The calculator integrates sophisticated risk assessment through two primary modes:
Stop Loss Integration: When fixed stop-loss levels are defined, risk calculation follows Risk per Trade = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. This ensures that the Kelly fraction accounts for actual risk exposure rather than theoretical maximum loss, with stop-loss distance measured in appropriate units for each asset class.
Strategy Drawdown Assessment: For discretionary exit strategies, risk estimation uses maximum historical drawdown through Risk per Trade = Position Value × (Maximum Drawdown / 100). This approach assumes that individual trade losses will not exceed the strategy's historical maximum drawdown, providing a reasonable estimate for strategies with well-defined risk characteristics.
Fractional Kelly Approaches
Pure Kelly sizing can produce substantial volatility, leading many practitioners to adopt fractional Kelly approaches. MacLean, Sanegre, Zhao, and Ziemba (2004) analyze the trade-offs between growth rate and volatility, demonstrating that half-Kelly typically reduces volatility by approximately 75% while sacrificing only 25% of the growth rate.
The calculator provides three primary Kelly modes to accommodate different risk preferences and experience levels. Full Kelly maximizes growth rate while accepting higher volatility, making it suitable for experienced practitioners with strong risk tolerance and robust capital bases. Half Kelly offers a balanced approach popular among professional traders, providing optimal risk-return balance by reducing volatility significantly while maintaining substantial growth potential. Quarter Kelly implements a conservative approach with low volatility, recommended for risk-averse traders or those new to Kelly methodology who prefer gradual introduction to optimal position sizing principles.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Extensive academic research supports the theoretical advantages of Kelly sizing. Hakansson and Ziemba (1995) provide a comprehensive review of Kelly applications in finance, documenting superior long-term performance across various market conditions and asset classes. Estrada (2008) analyzes Kelly performance in international equity markets, finding that Kelly-based strategies consistently outperform fixed position sizing approaches over extended periods across 19 developed markets over a 30-year period.
Several prominent investment firms have successfully implemented Kelly-based position sizing. Pabrai (2007) documents the application of Kelly principles at Berkshire Hathaway, noting Warren Buffett's concentrated portfolio approach aligns closely with Kelly optimal sizing for high-conviction investments. Quantitative hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies and AQR, have incorporated Kelly-based risk management into their systematic trading strategies.
Practical Implementation Guidelines
Successful Kelly implementation requires systematic application with attention to several critical factors:
Parameter Estimation: Accurate parameter estimation represents the greatest challenge in practical Kelly implementation. Brown (1976) notes that small errors in probability estimates can lead to significant deviations from optimal performance. The calculator addresses this through Bayesian adjustments and confidence measures.
Sample Size Requirements: Users should begin with conservative fractional Kelly approaches until achieving sufficient historical data. Strategies with fewer than 30 trades may produce unreliable Kelly estimates, regardless of adjustments. Full confidence typically requires 100 or more independent trade observations.
Market Regime Considerations: Parameters that accurately describe historical performance may not reflect future market conditions. Ziemba (2003) recommends regular parameter updates and conservative adjustments when market conditions change significantly.
Professional Features and Customization
The calculator provides comprehensive customization options for professional applications:
Multiple Color Schemes: Eight professional color themes (Gold, EdgeTools, Behavioral, Quant, Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) with dark and light theme compatibility ensure optimal visibility across different trading environments.
Flexible Display Options: Adjustable table size and position accommodate various chart layouts and user preferences, while maintaining analytical depth and clarity.
Comprehensive Results: The results table presents essential information including asset specifications, strategy statistics, Kelly calculations, sample confidence measures, position values, risk assessments, and final position sizes in appropriate units for each asset class.
Limitations and Considerations
Like any analytical tool, the Kelly Criterion has important limitations that users must understand:
Stationarity Assumption: The Kelly Criterion assumes that historical strategy statistics represent future performance characteristics. Non-stationary market conditions may invalidate this assumption, as noted by Lo and MacKinlay (1999).
Independence Requirement: Each trade should be independent to avoid correlation effects. Many trading strategies exhibit serial correlation in returns, which can affect optimal position sizing and may require adjustments for portfolio applications.
Parameter Sensitivity: Kelly calculations are sensitive to parameter accuracy. Regular calibration and conservative approaches are essential when parameter uncertainty is high.
Transaction Costs: The implementation incorporates user-defined transaction costs but assumes these remain constant across different position sizes and market conditions, following Ziemba (2003).
Advanced Applications and Extensions
Multi-Asset Portfolio Considerations: While this calculator optimizes individual position sizes, portfolio-level applications require additional considerations for correlation effects and aggregate risk management. Simplified portfolio approaches include treating positions independently with correlation adjustments.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral finance research reveals systematic biases that can interfere with Kelly implementation. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) document loss aversion, overconfidence, and other cognitive biases that lead traders to deviate from optimal strategies. Successful implementation requires disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations.
Time-Varying Parameters: Advanced implementations may incorporate time-varying parameter models that adjust Kelly recommendations based on changing market conditions, though these require sophisticated econometric techniques and substantial computational resources.
Comprehensive Usage Instructions and Practical Examples
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on your desired trading instrument's chart. The system automatically detects asset type across stocks, forex, futures, and cryptocurrency markets while extracting current price information. Navigation to the indicator settings allows input of your specific strategy parameters.
Strategy statistics configuration requires careful attention to several key metrics. The win rate should be calculated from your backtest results using the formula of winning trades divided by total trades multiplied by 100. Average win represents the sum of all profitable trades divided by the number of winning trades, while average loss calculates the sum of all losing trades divided by the number of losing trades, entered as a positive number. The total historical trades parameter requires the complete number of trades in your backtest, with a minimum of 30 trades recommended for basic functionality and 100 or more trades optimal for statistical reliability. Account size should reflect your available trading capital, specifically the risk capital allocated for trading rather than total net worth.
Risk management configuration adapts to your specific trading approach. The stop loss setting should be enabled if you employ fixed stop-loss exits, with the stop loss distance specified in appropriate units depending on the asset class. For stocks, this distance is measured in dollars, for forex in pips, and for futures in ticks. When stop losses are not used, the maximum strategy drawdown percentage from your backtest provides the risk assessment baseline. Kelly mode selection offers three primary approaches: Full Kelly for aggressive growth with higher volatility suitable for experienced practitioners, Half Kelly for balanced risk-return optimization popular among professional traders, and Quarter Kelly for conservative approaches with reduced volatility.
Display customization ensures optimal integration with your trading environment. Eight professional color themes provide optimization for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Table position selection allows optimal placement within your chart layout, while table size adjustment ensures readability across different screen resolutions and viewing preferences.
Detailed Practical Examples
Example 1: SPY Swing Trading Strategy
Consider a professionally developed swing trading strategy for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with backtesting results spanning 166 total trades. The strategy achieved 110 winning trades, representing a 66.3% win rate, with an average winning trade of $2,200 and average losing trade of $862. The maximum drawdown reached 31.4% during the testing period, and the available trading capital amounts to $25,000. This strategy employs discretionary exits without fixed stop losses.
Implementation requires loading the calculator on the SPY daily chart and configuring the parameters accordingly. The win rate input receives 66.3, while average win and loss inputs receive 2200 and 862 respectively. Total historical trades input requires 166, with account size set to 25000. The stop loss function remains disabled due to the discretionary exit approach, with maximum strategy drawdown set to 31.4%. Half Kelly mode provides the optimal balance between growth and risk management for this application.
The calculator generates several key outputs for this scenario. The risk-reward ratio calculates automatically to 2.55, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 53% before scientific adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 166 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 27% after Half Kelly and Bayesian adjustment factors. Position value reaches approximately $6,750, translating to 16 shares at a $420 SPY price. Risk per trade amounts to approximately $2,110, representing 31.4% of position value, with expected value per trade reaching approximately $1,466. This recommendation represents the mathematically optimal balance between growth potential and risk management for this specific strategy profile.
Example 2: EURUSD Day Trading with Stop Losses
A high-frequency EURUSD day trading strategy demonstrates different parameter requirements compared to swing trading approaches. This strategy encompasses 89 total trades with a 58% win rate, generating an average winning trade of $180 and average losing trade of $95. The maximum drawdown reached 12% during testing, with available capital of $10,000. The strategy employs fixed stop losses at 25 pips and take profit targets at 45 pips, providing clear risk-reward parameters.
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on the EURUSD 1-hour chart for appropriate timeframe alignment. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 58, average win at 180, and average loss at 95. Total historical trades input receives 89, with account size set to 10000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 25 pips, reflecting the fixed exit strategy. Quarter Kelly mode provides conservative positioning due to the smaller sample size compared to the previous example.
Results demonstrate the impact of smaller sample sizes on Kelly calculations. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 1.89, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 32% before adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 89%, providing moderate statistical confidence given the 89 trades. The recommended position settles at approximately 7% after Quarter Kelly application and Bayesian shrinkage adjustment for the smaller sample. Position value amounts to approximately $700, translating to 0.07 standard lots. Risk per trade reaches approximately $175, calculated as 25 pips multiplied by lot size and pip value, with expected value per trade at approximately $49. This conservative position sizing reflects the smaller sample size, with position sizes expected to increase as trade count surpasses 100 and statistical confidence improves.
Example 3: ES1! Futures Systematic Strategy
Systematic futures trading presents unique considerations for Kelly criterion application, as demonstrated by an E-mini S&P 500 futures strategy encompassing 234 total trades. This systematic approach achieved a 45% win rate with an average winning trade of $1,850 and average losing trade of $720. The maximum drawdown reached 18% during the testing period, with available capital of $50,000. The strategy employs 15-tick stop losses with contract specifications of $50 per tick, providing precise risk control mechanisms.
Implementation involves loading the calculator on the ES1! 15-minute chart to align with the systematic trading timeframe. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 45, average win at 1850, and average loss at 720. Total historical trades receives 234, providing robust statistical foundation, with account size set to 50000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 15 ticks, reflecting the systematic exit methodology. Half Kelly mode balances growth potential with appropriate risk management for futures trading.
Results illustrate how favorable risk-reward ratios can support meaningful position sizing despite lower win rates. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 2.57, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 16%, lower than previous examples due to the sub-50% win rate. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 234 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 8% after Half Kelly adjustment. Estimated margin per contract amounts to approximately $2,500, resulting in a single contract allocation. Position value reaches approximately $2,500, with risk per trade at $750, calculated as 15 ticks multiplied by $50 per tick. Expected value per trade amounts to approximately $508. Despite the lower win rate, the favorable risk-reward ratio supports meaningful position sizing, with single contract allocation reflecting appropriate leverage management for futures trading.
Example 4: MES1! Micro-Futures for Smaller Accounts
Micro-futures contracts provide enhanced accessibility for smaller trading accounts while maintaining identical strategy characteristics. Using the same systematic strategy statistics from the previous example but with available capital of $15,000 and micro-futures specifications of $5 per tick with reduced margin requirements, the implementation demonstrates improved position sizing granularity.
Kelly calculations remain identical to the full-sized contract example, maintaining the same risk-reward dynamics and statistical foundations. However, estimated margin per contract reduces to approximately $250 for micro-contracts, enabling allocation of 4-5 micro-contracts. Position value reaches approximately $1,200, while risk per trade calculates to $75, derived from 15 ticks multiplied by $5 per tick. This granularity advantage provides better position size precision for smaller accounts, enabling more accurate Kelly implementation without requiring large capital commitments.
Example 5: Bitcoin Swing Trading
Cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges requiring modified Kelly application approaches. A Bitcoin swing trading strategy on BTCUSD encompasses 67 total trades with a 71% win rate, generating average winning trades of $3,200 and average losing trades of $1,400. Maximum drawdown reached 28% during testing, with available capital of $30,000. The strategy employs technical analysis for exits without fixed stop losses, relying on price action and momentum indicators.
Implementation requires conservative approaches due to cryptocurrency volatility characteristics. Quarter Kelly mode is recommended despite the high win rate to account for crypto market unpredictability. Expected position sizing remains reduced due to the limited sample size of 67 trades, requiring additional caution until statistical confidence improves. Regular parameter updates are strongly recommended due to cryptocurrency market evolution and changing volatility patterns that can significantly impact strategy performance characteristics.
Advanced Usage Scenarios
Portfolio position sizing requires sophisticated consideration when running multiple strategies simultaneously. Each strategy should have its Kelly fraction calculated independently to maintain mathematical integrity. However, correlation adjustments become necessary when strategies exhibit related performance patterns. Moderately correlated strategies should receive individual position size reductions of 10-20% to account for overlapping risk exposure. Aggregate portfolio risk monitoring ensures total exposure remains within acceptable limits across all active strategies. Professional practitioners often consider using lower fractional Kelly approaches, such as Quarter Kelly, when running multiple strategies simultaneously to provide additional safety margins.
Parameter sensitivity analysis forms a critical component of professional Kelly implementation. Regular validation procedures should include monthly parameter updates using rolling 100-trade windows to capture evolving market conditions while maintaining statistical relevance. Sensitivity testing involves varying win rates by ±5% and average win/loss ratios by ±10% to assess recommendation stability under different parameter assumptions. Out-of-sample validation reserves 20% of historical data for parameter verification, ensuring that optimization doesn't create curve-fitted results. Regime change detection monitors actual performance against expected metrics, triggering parameter reassessment when significant deviations occur.
Risk management integration requires professional overlay considerations beyond pure Kelly calculations. Daily loss limits should cease trading when daily losses exceed twice the calculated risk per trade, preventing emotional decision-making during adverse periods. Maximum position limits should never exceed 25% of account value in any single position regardless of Kelly recommendations, maintaining diversification principles. Correlation monitoring reduces position sizes when holding multiple correlated positions that move together during market stress. Volatility adjustments consider reducing position sizes during periods of elevated VIX above 25 for equity strategies, adapting to changing market conditions.
Troubleshooting and Optimization
Professional implementation often encounters specific challenges requiring systematic troubleshooting approaches. Zero position size displays typically result from insufficient capital for minimum position sizes, negative expected values, or extremely conservative Kelly calculations. Solutions include increasing account size, verifying strategy statistics for accuracy, considering Quarter Kelly mode for conservative approaches, or reassessing overall strategy viability when fundamental issues exist.
Extremely high Kelly fractions exceeding 50% usually indicate underlying problems with parameter estimation. Common causes include unrealistic win rates, inflated risk-reward ratios, or curve-fitted backtest results that don't reflect genuine trading conditions. Solutions require verifying backtest methodology, including all transaction costs in calculations, testing strategies on out-of-sample data, and using conservative fractional Kelly approaches until parameter reliability improves.
Low sample confidence below 50% reflects insufficient historical trades for reliable parameter estimation. This situation demands gathering additional trading data, using Quarter Kelly approaches until reaching 100 or more trades, applying extra conservatism in position sizing, and considering paper trading to build statistical foundations without capital risk.
Inconsistent results across similar strategies often stem from parameter estimation differences, market regime changes, or strategy degradation over time. Professional solutions include standardizing backtest methodology across all strategies, updating parameters regularly to reflect current conditions, and monitoring live performance against expectations to identify deteriorating strategies.
Position sizes that appear inappropriately large or small require careful validation against traditional risk management principles. Professional standards recommend never risking more than 2-3% per trade regardless of Kelly calculations. Calibration should begin with Quarter Kelly approaches, gradually increasing as comfort and confidence develop. Most institutional traders utilize 25-50% of full Kelly recommendations to balance growth with prudent risk management.
Market condition adjustments require dynamic approaches to Kelly implementation. Trending markets may support full Kelly recommendations when directional momentum provides favorable conditions. Ranging or volatile markets typically warrant reducing to Half or Quarter Kelly to account for increased uncertainty. High correlation periods demand reducing individual position sizes when multiple positions move together, concentrating risk exposure. News and event periods often justify temporary position size reductions during high-impact releases that can create unpredictable market movements.
Performance monitoring requires systematic protocols to ensure Kelly implementation remains effective over time. Weekly reviews should compare actual versus expected win rates and average win/loss ratios to identify parameter drift or strategy degradation. Position size efficiency and execution quality monitoring ensures that calculated recommendations translate effectively into actual trading results. Tracking correlation between calculated and realized risk helps identify discrepancies between theoretical and practical risk exposure.
Monthly calibration provides more comprehensive parameter assessment using the most recent 100 trades to maintain statistical relevance while capturing current market conditions. Kelly mode appropriateness requires reassessment based on recent market volatility and performance characteristics, potentially shifting between Full, Half, and Quarter Kelly approaches as conditions change. Transaction cost evaluation ensures that commission structures, spreads, and slippage estimates remain accurate and current.
Quarterly strategic reviews encompass comprehensive strategy performance analysis comparing long-term results against expectations and identifying trends in effectiveness. Market regime assessment evaluates parameter stability across different market conditions, determining whether strategy characteristics remain consistent or require fundamental adjustments. Strategic modifications to position sizing methodology may become necessary as markets evolve or trading approaches mature, ensuring that Kelly implementation continues supporting optimal capital allocation objectives.
Professional Applications
This calculator serves diverse professional applications across the financial industry. Quantitative hedge funds utilize the implementation for systematic position sizing within algorithmic trading frameworks, where mathematical precision and consistent application prove essential for institutional capital management. Professional discretionary traders benefit from optimized position management that removes emotional bias while maintaining flexibility for market-specific adjustments. Portfolio managers employ the calculator for developing risk-adjusted allocation strategies that enhance returns while maintaining prudent risk controls across diverse asset classes and investment strategies.
Individual traders seeking mathematical optimization of capital allocation find the calculator provides institutional-grade methodology previously available only to professional money managers. The Kelly Criterion establishes theoretical foundation for optimal capital allocation across both single strategies and multiple trading systems, offering significant advantages over arbitrary position sizing methods that rely on intuition or fixed percentage approaches. Professional implementation ensures consistent application of mathematically sound principles while adapting to changing market conditions and strategy performance characteristics.
Conclusion
The Kelly Criterion represents one of the few mathematically optimal solutions to fundamental investment problems. When properly understood and carefully implemented, it provides significant competitive advantage in financial markets. This calculator implements modern refinements to Kelly's original formula while maintaining accessibility for practical trading applications.
Success with Kelly requires ongoing learning, systematic application, and continuous refinement based on market feedback and evolving research. Users who master Kelly principles and implement them systematically can expect superior risk-adjusted returns and more consistent capital growth over extended periods.
The extensive academic literature provides rich resources for deeper study, while practical experience builds the intuition necessary for effective implementation. Regular parameter updates, conservative approaches with limited data, and disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations are essential for optimal results.
References
Archer, M. D. (2010). Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's Forex Market (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). An empirical Bayes approach to optimising betting strategies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 61(1), 75-92.
Breiman, L. (1961). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. In J. Neyman (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (pp. 65-78). University of California Press.
Brown, D. B. (1976). Optimal portfolio growth: Logarithmic utility and the Kelly criterion. In W. T. Ziemba & R. G. Vickson (Eds.), Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (pp. 1-23). Academic Press.
Browne, S., & Whitt, W. (1996). Portfolio choice and the Bayesian Kelly criterion. Advances in Applied Probability, 28(4), 1145-1176.
Estrada, J. (2008). Geometric mean maximization: An overlooked portfolio approach? The Journal of Investing, 17(4), 134-147.
Hakansson, N. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1995). Capital growth theory. In R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 9, pp. 65-86). Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Kelly Jr, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton University Press.
MacLean, L. C., Sanegre, E. O., Zhao, Y., & Ziemba, W. T. (2004). Capital growth with security. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28(4), 937-954.
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is 'optimized' optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31-42.
Pabrai, M. (2007). The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns. John Wiley & Sons.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Tharp, V. K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Thorp, E. O. (2006). The Kelly criterion in blackjack sports betting, and the stock market. In L. C. MacLean, E. O. Thorp, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (pp. 789-832). World Scientific.
Van Tharp, K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Vince, R., & Zhu, H. (2015). Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 161, 19-31.
Ziemba, W. T. (2003). The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management. The Research Foundation of AIMR.
Further Reading
For comprehensive understanding of Kelly Criterion applications and advanced implementations:
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ziemba, W. T., & Vickson, R. G. (Eds.). (2006). Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance. World Scientific.
Hurst Exponent Adaptive Filter (HEAF) [PhenLabs]📊 PhenLabs - Hurst Exponent Adaptive Filter (HEAF)
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
The Hurst Exponent Adaptive Filter (HEAF) is an advanced Pine Script indicator designed to dynamically adjust moving average calculations based on real time market regimes detected through the Hurst Exponent. The intention behind the creation of this indicator was not a buy/sell indicator but rather a tool to help sharpen traders ability to distinguish regimes in the market mathematically rather than guessing. By analyzing price persistence, it identifies whether the market is trending, mean-reverting, or exhibiting random walk behavior, automatically adapting the MA length to provide more responsive alerts in volatile conditions and smoother outputs in stable ones. This helps traders avoid false signals in choppy markets and capitalize on strong trends, making it ideal for adaptive trading strategies across various timeframes and assets.
Unlike traditional moving averages, HEAF incorporates fractal dimension analysis via the Hurst Exponent to create a self-tuning filter that evolves with market conditions. Traders benefit from visual cues like color coded regimes, adaptive bands for volatility channels, and an information panel that suggests appropriate strategies, enhancing decision making without constant manual adjustments by the user.
🚀 Points of Innovation
Dynamic MA length adjustment using Hurst Exponent for regime-aware filtering, reducing lag in trends and noise in ranges.
Integrated market regime classification (trending, mean-reverting, random) with visual and alert-based notifications.
Customizable color themes and adaptive bands that incorporate ATR for volatility-adjusted channels.
Built-in information panel providing real-time strategy recommendations based on detected regimes.
Power sensitivity parameter to fine-tune adaptation aggressiveness, allowing personalization for different trading styles.
Support for multiple MA types (EMA, SMA, WMA) within an adaptive framework.
🔧 Core Components
Hurst Exponent Calculation: Computes the fractal dimension of price series over a user-defined lookback to detect market persistence or anti-persistence.
Adaptive Length Mechanism: Maps Hurst values to MA lengths between minimum and maximum bounds, using a power function for sensitivity control.
Moving Average Engine: Applies the chosen MA type (EMA, SMA, or WMA) to the adaptive length for the core filter line.
Adaptive Bands: Creates upper and lower channels using ATR multiplied by a band factor, scaled to the current adaptive length.
Regime Detection: Classifies market state with thresholds (e.g., >0.55 for trending) and triggers alerts on regime changes.
Visualization System: Includes gradient fills, regime-colored MA lines, and an info panel for at-a-glance insights.
🔥 Key Features
Regime-Adaptive Filtering: Automatically shortens MA in mean-reverting markets for quick responses and lengthens it in trends for smoother signals, helping traders stay aligned with market dynamics.
Custom Alerts: Notifies on regime shifts and band breakouts, enabling timely strategy adjustments like switching to trend-following in bullish regimes.
Visual Enhancements: Color-coded MA lines, gradient band fills, and an optional info panel that displays market state and trading tips, improving chart readability.
Flexible Settings: Adjustable lookback, min/max lengths, sensitivity power, MA type, and themes to suit various assets and timeframes.
Band Breakout Signals: Highlights potential overbought/oversold conditions via ATR-based channels, useful for entry/exit timing.
🎨 Visualization
Main Adaptive MA Line: Plotted with regime-based colors (e.g., green for trending) to visually indicate market state and filter position relative to price.
Adaptive Bands: Upper and lower lines with gradient fills between them, showing volatility channels that widen in random regimes and tighten in trends.
Price vs. MA Fills: Color-coded areas between price and MA (e.g., bullish green above MA in trending modes) for quick trend strength assessment.
Information Panel: Top-right table displaying current regime (e.g., "Trending Market") and strategy suggestions like "Follow trends" or "Trade ranges."
📖 Usage Guidelines
Core Settings
Hurst Lookback Period
Default: 100
Range: 20-500
Description: Sets the period for Hurst Exponent calculation; longer values provide more stable regime detection but may lag, while shorter ones are more responsive to recent changes.
Minimum MA Length
Default: 10
Range: 5-50
Description: Defines the shortest possible adaptive MA length, ideal for fast responses in mean-reverting conditions.
Maximum MA Length
Default: 200
Range: 50-500
Description: Sets the longest adaptive MA length for smoothing in strong trends; adjust based on asset volatility.
Sensitivity Power
Default: 2.0
Range: 1.0-5.0
Description: Controls how aggressively the length adapts to Hurst changes; higher values make it more sensitive to regime shifts.
MA Type
Default: EMA
Options: EMA, SMA, WMA
Description: Chooses the moving average calculation method; EMA is more responsive, while SMA/WMA offer different weighting.
🖼️ Visual Settings
Show Adaptive Bands
Default: True
Description: Toggles visibility of upper/lower bands for volatility channels.
Band Multiplier
Default: 1.5
Range: 0.5-3.0
Description: Scales band width using ATR; higher values create wider channels for conservative signals.
Show Information Panel
Default: True
Description: Displays regime info and strategy tips in a top-right panel.
MA Line Width
Default: 2
Range: 1-5
Description: Adjusts thickness of the main MA line for better visibility.
Color Theme
Default: Blue
Options: Blue, Classic, Dark Purple, Vibrant
Description: Selects color scheme for MA, bands, and fills to match user preferences.
🚨 Alert Settings
Enable Alerts
Default: True
Description: Activates notifications for regime changes and band breakouts.
✅ Best Use Cases
Trend-Following Strategies: In detected trending regimes, use the adaptive MA as a trailing stop or entry filter for momentum trades.
Range Trading: During mean-reverting periods, monitor band breakouts for buying dips or selling rallies within channels.
Risk Management in Random Markets: Reduce exposure when random walk is detected, using tight stops suggested in the info panel.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Apply on higher timeframes for regime confirmation, then drill down to lower ones for entries.
Volatility-Based Entries: Use upper/lower band crossovers as signals in adaptive channels for overbought/oversold trades.
⚠️ Limitations
Lagging in Transitions: Regime detection may delay during rapid market shifts, requiring confirmation from other tools.
Not a Standalone System: Best used in conjunction with other indicators; random regimes can lead to whipsaws if traded aggressively.
Parameter Sensitivity: Optimal settings vary by asset and timeframe, necessitating backtesting.
💡 What Makes This Unique
Hurst-Driven Adaptation: Unlike static MAs, it uses fractal analysis to self-tune, providing regime-specific filtering that's rare in standard indicators.
Integrated Strategy Guidance: The info panel offers actionable tips tied to regimes, bridging analysis and execution.
Multi-Regime Visualization: Combines adaptive bands, colored fills, and alerts in one tool for comprehensive market state awareness.
🔬 How It Works
Hurst Exponent Computation:
Calculates log returns over the lookback period to derive the rescaled range (R/S) ratio.
Normalizes to a 0-1 value, where >0.55 indicates trending, <0.45 mean-reverting, and in-between random.
Length Adaptation:
Maps normalized Hurst to an MA length via a power function, clamping between min and max.
Applies the selected MA type to close prices using this dynamic length.
Visualization and Signals:
Plots the MA with regime colors, adds ATR-based bands, and fills areas for trend strength.
Triggers alerts on regime changes or band crosses, with the info panel suggesting strategies like momentum riding in trends.
💡 Note:
For optimal results, backtest settings on your preferred assets and combine with volume or momentum indicators. Remember, no indicator guarantees profits—use with proper risk management. Access premium features and support at PhenLabs.
Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator [BackQuant]Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator
1. Big-picture idea
Traditional percentile or stochastic oscillators treat every bar in the look-back window as equally important. That is fine when markets are slow, but if volatility regime changes quickly yesterday’s print should matter more than last month’s. The Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator attempts to fix that blind spot by assigning an adjustable weight to every past price before it is ranked. The result is a percentile score that “breathes” with market tempo much faster to flag new extremes yet still smooth enough to ignore random noise.
2. What the script actually does
Build a weight curve
• You pick a look-back length (default 28 bars).
• You decide whether weights fall Linearly , Exponentially , by Power-law or Logarithmically .
• A decay factor (lower = faster fade) shapes how quickly the oldest price loses influence.
• The array is normalised so all weights still sum to 1.
Rank prices by weighted mass
• Every close in the window is paired with its weight.
• The pairs are sorted from low to high.
• The cumulative weight is walked until it equals your chosen percentile level (default 50 = median).
• That price becomes the Time-Decayed Percentile .
Find dispersion with robust statistics
• Instead of a fragile standard deviation the script measures weighted Median-Absolute-Deviation about the new percentile.
• You multiply that deviation by the Deviation Multiplier slider (default 1.0) to get a non-parametric volatility band.
Build an adaptive channel
• Upper band = percentile + (multiplier × deviation)
• Lower band = percentile – (multiplier × deviation)
Normalise into a 0-100 oscillator
• The current close is mapped inside that band:
0 = lower band, 50 = centre, 100 = upper band.
• If the channel squeezes, tiny moves still travel the full scale; if volatility explodes, it automatically widens.
Optional smoothing
• A second-stage moving average (EMA, SMA, DEMA, TEMA, etc.) tames the jitter.
• Length 22 EMA by default—change it to tune reaction speed.
Threshold logic
• Upper Threshold 70 and Lower Threshold 30 separate standard overbought/oversold states.
• Extreme bands 85 and 15 paint background heat when aggressive fade or breakout trades might trigger.
Divergence engine
• Looks back twenty bars.
• Flags Bullish divergence when price makes a lower low but oscillator refuses to confirm (value < 40).
• Flags Bearish divergence when price prints a higher high but oscillator stalls (value > 60).
3. Component walk-through
• Source – Any price series. Close by default, switch to typical price or custom OHLC4 for futures spreads.
• Look-back Period – How many bars to rank. Short = faster, long = slower.
• Base Percentile Level – 50 shows relative position around the median; set to 25 / 75 for quartile tracking or 90 / 10 for extreme tails.
• Deviation Multiplier – Higher values widen the dynamic channel, lowering whipsaw but delaying signals.
• Decay Settings
– Type decides the curve shape. Exponential (default 1.16) mimics EMA logic.
– Factor < 1 shrinks influence faster; > 1 spreads influence flatter.
– Toggle Enable Time Decay off to compare with classic equal-weight stochastic.
• Smoothing Block – Choose one of seven MA flavours plus length.
• Thresholds – Overbought / Oversold / Extreme levels. Push them out when working on very mean-reverting assets like FX; pull them in for trend monsters like crypto.
• Display toggles – Show or hide threshold lines, extreme filler zones, bar colouring, divergence labels.
• Colours – Bullish green, bearish red, neutral grey. Every gradient step is automatically blended to generate a heat map across the 0-100 range.
4. How to read the chart
• Oscillator creeping above 70 = market auctioning near the top of its adaptive range.
• Fast poke above 85 with no follow-through = exhaustion fade candidate.
• Slow grind that lives above 70 for many bars = valid bullish trend, not a fade.
• Cross back through 50 shows balance has shifted; treat it like a micro trend change.
• Divergence arrows add extra confidence when you already see two-bar reversal candles at range extremes.
• Background shading (semi-transparent red / green) warns of extreme states and throttles your position size.
5. Practical trading playbook
Mean-reversion scalps
1. Wait for oscillator to reach your desired OB/ OS levels
2. Check the slope of the smoothing MA—if it is flattening the squeeze is mature.
3. Look for a one- or two-bar reversal pattern.
4. Enter against the move; first target = midline 50, second target = opposite threshold.
5. Stop loss just beyond the extreme band.
Trend continuation pullbacks
1. Identify a clean directional trend on the price chart.
2. During the trend, TDP will oscillate between midline and extreme of that side.
3. Buy dips when oscillator hits OS levels, and the same for OB levels & shorting
4. Exit when oscillator re-tags the same-side extreme or prints divergence.
Volatility regime filter
• Use the Enable Time Decay switch as a regime test.
• If equal-weight oscillator and decayed oscillator diverge widely, market is entering a new volatility regime—tighten stops and trade smaller.
Divergence confirmation for other indicators
• Pair TDP divergence arrows with MACD histogram or RSI to filter false positives.
• The weighted nature means TDP often spots divergence a bar or two earlier than standard RSI.
Swing breakout strategy
1. During consolidation, band width compresses and oscillator oscillates around 50.
2. Watch for sudden expansion where oscillator blasts through extreme bands and stays pinned.
3. Enter with momentum in breakout direction; trail stop behind upper or lower band as it re-expands.
6. Customising decay mathematics
Linear – Each older bar loses the same fixed amount of influence. Intuitive and stable; good for slow swing charts.
Exponential – Influence halves every “decay factor” steps. Mirrors EMA thinking and is fastest to react.
Power-law – Mid-history bars keep more authority than exponential but oldest data still fades. Handy for commodities where seasonality matters.
Logarithmic – The gentlest curve; weight drops sharply at first then levels off. Mimics how traders remember dramatic moves for weeks but forget ordinary noise quickly.
Turn decay off to verify the tool’s added value; most users never switch back.
7. Alert catalogue
• TD Overbought / TD Oversold – Cross of regular thresholds.
• TD Extreme OB / OS – Breach of danger zones.
• TD Bullish / Bearish Divergence – High-probability reversal watch.
• TD Midline Cross – Momentum shift that often precedes a window where trend-following systems perform.
8. Visual hygiene tips
• If you already plot price on a dark background pick Bullish Color and Bearish Color default; change to pastel tones for light themes.
• Hide threshold lines after you memorise the zones to declutter scalping layouts.
• Overlay mode set to false so the oscillator lives in its own panel; keep height about 30 % of screen for best resolution.
9. Final notes
Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator marries robust statistical ranking, adaptive dispersion and decay-aware weighting into a simple oscillator. It respects both recent order-flow shocks and historical context, offers granular control over responsiveness and ships with divergence and alert plumbing out of the box. Bolt it onto your price action framework, trend-following system or volatility mean-reversion playbook and see how much sooner it recognises genuine extremes compared to legacy oscillators.
Backtest thoroughly, experiment with decay curves on each asset class and remember: in trading, timing beats timidity but patience beats impulse. May this tool help you find that edge.
Fair Value MSThis indicator introduces rigid rules to familiar concepts to better capture and visualize Market Structure and Areas of Support and Resistance in a way that is both rule-based and reactive to market movements.
Typical "Market Structure" or "Zig-Zag" methods determine swing points based on fixed thresholds (length or percentage). While this does provide rigid structure, the results may be lagging or confusing due to the timing, since it is fixed to static parameters.
I believe the concept of Fair Value Gaps can solve this problem.
As you will notice, there are no length settings in this indicator.
> FVG Market Structure
Fair Value Gaps are a well known concept used to indicate directional intent, forming when price moves aggressively in one direction, leaving behind an imbalance between buyers and sellers. While the term FVG was popularized by ICT, the underlying concept predates them, known historically as imbalances, inefficiencies, or liquidity voids in institutional trading.
Note: For simplicity, in this indicator they'll be called FVGs.
By reading into this, we are able to clearly and rigidly define market structure simply by "looking" at the chart, using objective price events rather than subjective interpretation, or lengths.
By using FVGs to determine structure direction, the length, and speed of identification lies entirely on the market. If an FVG Down occurs immediately after a New Higher High forms, it is reasonable to assume there was a seller at that point, so the script would indicate a New Swing High.
The script is NOT stuck, waiting for a % retrace, or # bars to pass to identify it as such.
Sometimes the market is in a steady trend in a single direction and no FVGs form; therefore, no structure forms. -> Why would we try to impose structure on a clear trend?
Ultimately, the FVG Structure Method uses real reactions from the market to determine Market structure, and is not fixed to specific parameters.
As with other market structure indicators, "Market Structure Breaks" are still identifiable when price moves outside the most recent swing points.
These are helpful to indicate larger direction. In the following section you will see how these help us determine when we should start the search for an "Area of Interest (AOI)".
> Areas of Interest (AOIs)
"Area of Interest (AOI)" is a generalized term, and could refer to many types of zones you might recognize under different names. While the AOIs in this indicator are specialized in their own way, I have chosen to simply use the term "Area of Interest" because it’s more important to understand how they behave and why they exist than to focus on what they’re called.
The goal of an AOI is to point out reasonable areas where buyers or sellers may be staging, as is typical with support and resistance.
In order to reasonably identify these areas, we look for cause and effect relationships. When considering these relationships, it's easier to understand the placement of the points to define each zone.
(Buyer Examples)
Cause: Strong Buyers step in at Swing Low
Effect: Fair Value Gap Forms
Cause: Sustained Buying Pressure
Effect: Market Structure Breaks
In this example, The zone is drawn from the Swing Low, to the Bottom of the FVG closest to the swing point.
In theory, the participation at the swing point was strong and aggressive enough to create the FVG imbalance. Which then found acceptance and continued into a Market Structure Break. So with these AOIs, we are trying to locate the aggressive Buyers or Sellers which were positioned BEFORE the FVG.
These Zones are intended to act as areas to look for reactions from market participants, to judge where price may be going. When revisiting these zones, we look for a reaction or a break, to further provide us information to if the buyers or sellers are still there.
As seen in the screenshot above, The information we gain is not from the creation of these zones, but from the behavior we witness when these zones are revisited.
Technical Note: In this indicator, Market Structure Breaks are only considered when price closes outside the recent swing points. Wicks are not considered as confirmation, therefore are not used to detect structural breaks.
Inside each AOI you can optionally display a readout of the volume which accumulated during the time starting at the swing point and going until the closing bar of the FVG.
Note: We are counting volume until the closing bar of the FVG since the FVG is a 3 bar formation, and aggressive volume is required throughout to create the imbalance.
There are multiple FVGs that typically occur in a single direction, but we do not look to every single one to be indicative of structure, only the first FVG in the opposite direction of the previous direction (which is determined by previous FVGs)
You will probably notice, the AOIs do not form from the closest swing or FVG to the break, this is because we are targeting larger directional changes to draw these AOIs from.
Since they do not always happen perfectly every time, the AOI formation waits for an FVG to occur AND a Market structure break to happen. One without the other will result in no Zone displaying.
> Reflection Lines
While they may seem slightly redundant, Reflection Lines serve as reminders of previous support and resistance pivots. They are drawn at the same Pivots where and AOI is formed, and extend beyond the mitigation of the AOI.
These lines are often points of price to look for "Support Flips", a re-test pattern where price trades through previous support (or resistance) then returns to it and rejects, continuing into a larger move or trend.
Their namesake is based on the behavior of price, "reflecting" at these levels.
The Reflection lines are simple and change color based on price's location.
If price is above, we would typically look to a reflection line in with support in mind.
As a basic filter, these lines use an average price to determine their color, this way they will not change their color as frequently in choppy situations.
> Session Start/End Lines
For analysis purposes and trade review, it is helpful to analyze with context.
For that reason, I have implemented start and end session lines into the indicator, these are helpful when reviewing historical charts to not provide additional context.
By default, they are set to the NYSE Session, but can be changed to fit any needs.
These lines are not advanced, and simply draw a line as the chart passes the start and end of the sessions. It's very likely that you may need to adjust the session for your specific needs.
Note: The Timezone can be adjusted within the code if needed. By Default, the indicator uses "America/New_York" Timezone.
> Conclusion
If you’ve ever felt like your structure tools were confusing or lagging, drawing zones too late, or zones that simply don't make sense, this should feel like a breath of fresh air.
By removing arbitrary length settings and instead using FVGs to define structure and as a basis for AOIs, you're getting a more accurate look at what price is doing and where it's reacting from.
This indicator is rule-based, reactive, and aims to keep things logical without fluff or false confidence.
Enjoy!
EMA Trend Dashboard
Trend Indicator using 3 custom EMA lines. Displays a table with 5 rows(position configurable)
-First line shows relative position of EMA lines to each other and outputs Bull, Weak Bull, Flat, Weak Bear, or Bear. EMA line1 should be less than EMA line2 and EMA line 2 should be less than EMA line3. Default is 9,21,50.
-Second through fourth line shows the slant of each EMA line. Up, Down, or Flat. Threshold for what is considered a slant is configurable. Also added a "steep" threshold configuration for steep slants.
-Fifth line shows exhaustion and is a simple, configurable calculation of the distance between EMA line1 and EMA line2.
--Lines one and five change depending on its value but ALL other colors are able to be changed.
--Default is somewhat set to work well with Micro E-mini Futures but this indicator can be changed to work on anything. I created it to help get a quick overview of short-term trend on futures. I used ChatGPT to help but I am still not sure if it actually took longer because of it.
SOT & SA Detector ProSOT & SA Detector Pro- Advanced Reversal Pattern Recognition
OVERVIEW
The SOT & SA Detector is an educational indicator designed to identify potential market reversal points through systematic analysis of candlestick patterns, volume confirmation, and price wave structures. SOT (Shorting of Thrust) signals suggest potential bearish reversals after upward price movements, while SA (Selling Accumulation) signals indicate possible bullish reversals following downward trends. This tool helps traders recognize key market transition points by combining multiple technical criteria for enhanced signal reliability.
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HOW IT WORKS
Technical Methodology
The indicator employs a multi-factor analysis approach that evaluates:
Wave Structure Analysis: Identifies minimum 2-bar directional waves (upward for SOT, downward for SA)
Price Delta Validation: Ensures closing price changes remain within specified percentage thresholds (default 0.3%) best 0.1.
Candlestick Tail Analysis: Measures rejection wicks using configurable tail multipliers
Volume Confirmation: Requires increased volume compared to previous periods
Pattern Confirmation: Validates signals through subsequent price action
Signal Generation Process
Pattern Recognition: Scans for qualifying candlestick formations with appropriate tail characteristics
Volume Verification: Confirms patterns with volume expansion using adjustable multiplier
Price Confirmation: Validates signals when price breaks and closes beyond pattern extremes
Signal Display: Places labeled markers and draws horizontal reference levels
Mathematical Foundation
Delta calculation: math.abs(close - close ) / close <= deltaPercent / 100
Tail analysis: (high - close ) >= tailMultiplier * (close - low ) for SOT
Volume filter: volume >= volume * volumeFactor
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KEY FEATURES
Dual Pattern Recognition: Identifies both bullish (SA) and bearish (SOT) reversal candidates
Volume Integration: Incorporates volume analysis for enhanced signal validation
Customizable Parameters: Adjustable wave length, delta percentage, tail multiplier, and volume factor
Visual Clarity: Color-coded bar highlighting, labeled signals, and horizontal reference levels
Time-Based Filtering: Configurable analysis period to focus on recent market activity
Non-Repainting Signals: Confirmed signals remain stable and do not change with new price data
Alert System: Built-in notifications for both initial signals and subsequent confirmations
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HOW TO USE
Signal Interpretation
Red SOT Labels: Appear above potential bearish reversal candles with downward-pointing markers
Green SA Labels: Display below potential bullish reversal candles with upward-pointing markers
Horizontal Lines: Extend from signal levels to provide ongoing reference points
Bar Coloring: Highlights qualifying pattern candles for visual emphasis
Trading Application
This indicator serves as an educational tool for pattern recognition and should be used in conjunction with additional analysis methods. Consider SOT signals as potential areas of selling pressure following upward moves, while SA signals may indicate buying interest after downward price action.
Best Practices
Combine with trend analysis and support/resistance levels
Consider overall market context and timeframe alignment
Use proper risk management techniques
Validate signals with additional technical indicators
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SETTINGS
Analysis Days (Default: 20)
Controls the lookback period for signal detection. Higher values extend historical analysis while lower values focus on recent activity.
Minimum Bars in Wave (Default: 2)
Sets the minimum consecutive bars required to establish directional wave patterns. Increase for stronger trend confirmation.
Max Close Change % (Default: 0.3) best 0.1.
Defines acceptable closing price variation between consecutive bars. Lower values require tighter price consolidation.
Tail Multiplier (Default: 1.0) best 1.5 or more.
Adjusts sensitivity for candlestick tail analysis. Higher values require more pronounced rejection wicks.
Volume Factor (Default: 1.0)
Sets volume expansion threshold compared to previous period. Values above 1.0 require volume increases.
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LIMITATIONS
Market Conditions
May produce false signals in highly volatile or low-volume conditions
Effectiveness varies across different market environments and timeframes
Requires sufficient volume data for optimal performance
Signal Timing
Signals appear after pattern completion, not in real-time during formation
Confirmation signals depend on subsequent price action
Historical signals do not guarantee future market behavior
Technical Constraints
Limited to analyzing price and volume data only
Does not incorporate fundamental analysis or external market factors
Performance may vary significantly across different trading instruments
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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
This indicator is designed for educational purposes and technical analysis learning. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss, and this tool should be used alongside proper risk management techniques and additional analysis methods.
Always conduct thorough analysis using multiple indicators and consider market context before making trading decisions. The SOT & SA patterns represent potential reversal points but do not guarantee price direction changes.
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Credits: Original concept and Pine Script implementation by Everyday_Trader_X
Version: Pine Script v6 compatible
Category: Technical Analysis / Reversal Detection
Overlay: Yes (displays on price chart)
Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory🌌 Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory (AHFT) - Revolutionary Quantum Market Analysis
Where Theoretical Physics Meets Trading Reality
A Groundbreaking Synthesis of Differential Geometry, Quantum Field Theory, and Market Dynamics
🔬 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION - THE MATHEMATICS OF MARKET REALITY
The Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory represents an unprecedented fusion of advanced mathematical physics with practical market analysis. This isn't merely another indicator repackaging old concepts - it's a fundamentally new lens through which to view and understand market structure .
1. HOLONOMY GROUPS (Differential Geometry)
In differential geometry, holonomy measures how vectors change when parallel transported around closed loops in curved space. Applied to markets:
Mathematical Formula:
H = P exp(∮_C A_μ dx^μ)
Where:
P = Path ordering operator
A_μ = Market connection (price-volume gauge field)
C = Closed price path
Market Implementation:
The holonomy calculation measures how price "remembers" its journey through market space. When price returns to a previous level, the holonomy captures what has changed in the market's internal geometry. This reveals:
Hidden curvature in the market manifold
Topological obstructions to arbitrage
Geometric phase accumulated during price cycles
2. ANOMALY DETECTION (Quantum Field Theory)
Drawing from the Adler-Bell-Jackiw anomaly in quantum field theory:
Mathematical Formula:
∂_μ j^μ = (e²/16π²)F_μν F̃^μν
Where:
j^μ = Market current (order flow)
F_μν = Field strength tensor (volatility structure)
F̃^μν = Dual field strength
Market Application:
Anomalies represent symmetry breaking in market structure - moments when normal patterns fail and extraordinary opportunities arise. The system detects:
Spontaneous symmetry breaking (trend reversals)
Vacuum fluctuations (volatility clusters)
Non-perturbative effects (market crashes/melt-ups)
3. GAUGE THEORY (Theoretical Physics)
Markets exhibit gauge invariance - the fundamental physics remains unchanged under certain transformations:
Mathematical Formula:
A'_μ = A_μ + ∂_μΛ
This ensures our signals are gauge-invariant observables , immune to arbitrary market "coordinate changes" like gaps or reference point shifts.
4. TOPOLOGICAL DATA ANALYSIS
Using persistent homology and Morse theory:
Mathematical Formula:
β_k = dim(H_k(X))
Where β_k are the Betti numbers describing topological features that persist across scales.
🎯 REVOLUTIONARY SIGNAL CONFIGURATION
Signal Sensitivity (0.5-12.0, default 2.5)
Controls the responsiveness of holonomy field calculations to market conditions. This parameter directly affects the threshold for detecting quantum phase transitions in price action.
Optimization by Timeframe:
Scalping (1-5min): 1.5-3.0 for rapid signal generation
Day Trading (15min-1H): 2.5-5.0 for balanced sensitivity
Swing Trading (4H-1D): 5.0-8.0 for high-quality signals only
Score Amplifier (10-200, default 50)
Scales the raw holonomy field strength to produce meaningful signal values. Higher values amplify weak signals in low-volatility environments.
Signal Confirmation Toggle
When enabled, enforces additional technical filters (EMA and RSI alignment) to reduce false positives. Essential for conservative strategies.
Minimum Bars Between Signals (1-20, default 5)
Prevents overtrading by enforcing quantum decoherence time between signals. Higher values reduce whipsaws in choppy markets.
👑 ELITE EXECUTION SYSTEM
Execution Modes:
Conservative Mode:
Stricter signal criteria
Higher quality thresholds
Ideal for stable market conditions
Adaptive Mode:
Self-adjusting parameters
Balances signal frequency with quality
Recommended for most traders
Aggressive Mode:
Maximum signal sensitivity
Captures rapid market moves
Best for experienced traders in volatile conditions
Dynamic Position Sizing:
When enabled, the system scales position size based on:
Holonomy field strength
Current volatility regime
Recent performance metrics
Advanced Exit Management:
Implements trailing stops based on ATR and signal strength, with mode-specific multipliers for optimal profit capture.
🧠 ADAPTIVE INTELLIGENCE ENGINE
Self-Learning System:
The strategy analyzes recent trade outcomes and adjusts:
Risk multipliers based on win/loss ratios
Signal weights according to performance
Market regime detection for environmental adaptation
Learning Speed (0.05-0.3):
Controls adaptation rate. Higher values = faster learning but potentially unstable. Lower values = stable but slower adaptation.
Performance Window (20-100 trades):
Number of recent trades analyzed for adaptation. Longer windows provide stability, shorter windows increase responsiveness.
🎨 REVOLUTIONARY VISUAL SYSTEM
1. Holonomy Field Visualization
What it shows: Multi-layer quantum field bands representing market resonance zones
How to interpret:
Blue/Purple bands = Primary holonomy field (strongest resonance)
Band width = Field strength and volatility
Price within bands = Normal quantum state
Price breaking bands = Quantum phase transition
Trading application: Trade reversals at band extremes, breakouts on band violations with strong signals.
2. Quantum Portals
What they show: Entry signals with recursive depth patterns indicating momentum strength
How to interpret:
Upward triangles with portals = Long entry signals
Downward triangles with portals = Short entry signals
Portal depth = Signal strength and expected momentum
Color intensity = Probability of success
Trading application: Enter on portal appearance, with size proportional to portal depth.
3. Field Resonance Bands
What they show: Fibonacci-based harmonic price zones where quantum resonance occurs
How to interpret:
Dotted circles = Minor resonance levels
Solid circles = Major resonance levels
Color coding = Resonance strength
Trading application: Use as dynamic support/resistance, expect reactions at resonance zones.
4. Anomaly Detection Grid
What it shows: Fractal-based support/resistance with anomaly strength calculations
How to interpret:
Triple-layer lines = Major fractal levels with high anomaly probability
Labels show: Period (H8-H55), Price, and Anomaly strength (φ)
⚡ symbol = Extreme anomaly detected
● symbol = Strong anomaly
○ symbol = Normal conditions
Trading application: Expect major moves when price approaches high anomaly levels. Use for precise entry/exit timing.
5. Phase Space Flow
What it shows: Background heatmap revealing market topology and energy
How to interpret:
Dark background = Low market energy, range-bound
Purple glow = Building energy, trend developing
Bright intensity = High energy, strong directional move
Trading application: Trade aggressively in bright phases, reduce activity in dark phases.
📊 PROFESSIONAL DASHBOARD METRICS
Holonomy Field Strength (-100 to +100)
What it measures: The Wilson loop integral around price paths
>70: Strong positive curvature (bullish vortex)
<-70: Strong negative curvature (bearish collapse)
Near 0: Flat connection (range-bound)
Anomaly Level (0-100%)
What it measures: Quantum vacuum expectation deviation
>70%: Major anomaly (phase transition imminent)
30-70%: Moderate anomaly (elevated volatility)
<30%: Normal quantum fluctuations
Quantum State (-1, 0, +1)
What it measures: Market wave function collapse
+1: Bullish eigenstate |↑⟩
0: Superposition (uncertain)
-1: Bearish eigenstate |↓⟩
Signal Quality Ratings
LEGENDARY: All quantum fields aligned, maximum probability
EXCEPTIONAL: Strong holonomy with anomaly confirmation
STRONG: Good field strength, moderate anomaly
MODERATE: Decent signals, some uncertainty
WEAK: Minimal edge, high quantum noise
Performance Metrics
Win Rate: Rolling performance with emoji indicators
Daily P&L: Real-time profit tracking
Adaptive Risk: Current risk multiplier status
Market Regime: Bull/Bear classification
🏆 WHY THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING
Traditional technical analysis operates on 100-year-old principles - moving averages, support/resistance, and pattern recognition. These work because many traders use them, creating self-fulfilling prophecies.
AHFT transcends this limitation by analyzing markets through the lens of fundamental physics:
Markets have geometry - The holonomy calculations reveal this hidden structure
Price has memory - The geometric phase captures path-dependent effects
Anomalies are predictable - Quantum field theory identifies symmetry breaking
Everything is connected - Gauge theory unifies disparate market phenomena
This isn't just a new indicator - it's a new way of thinking about markets . Just as Einstein's relativity revolutionized physics beyond Newton's mechanics, AHFT revolutionizes technical analysis beyond traditional methods.
🔧 OPTIMAL SETTINGS FOR MNQ 10-MINUTE
For the Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 on 10-minute timeframe:
Signal Sensitivity: 2.5-3.5
Score Amplifier: 50-70
Execution Mode: Adaptive
Min Bars Between: 3-5
Theme: Quantum Nebula or Dark Matter
💭 THE JOURNEY - FROM IMPOSSIBLE THEORY TO TRADING REALITY
Creating AHFT was a mathematical odyssey that pushed the boundaries of what's possible in Pine Script. The journey began with a seemingly impossible question: Could the profound mathematical structures of theoretical physics be translated into practical trading tools?
The Theoretical Challenge:
Months were spent diving deep into differential geometry textbooks, studying the works of Chern, Simons, and Witten. The mathematics of holonomy groups and gauge theory had never been applied to financial markets. Translating abstract mathematical concepts like parallel transport and fiber bundles into discrete price calculations required novel approaches and countless failed attempts.
The Computational Nightmare:
Pine Script wasn't designed for quantum field theory calculations. Implementing the Wilson loop integral, managing complex array structures for anomaly detection, and maintaining computational efficiency while calculating geometric phases pushed the language to its limits. There were moments when the entire project seemed impossible - the script would timeout, produce nonsensical results, or simply refuse to compile.
The Breakthrough Moments:
After countless sleepless nights and thousands of lines of code, breakthrough came through elegant simplifications. The realization that market anomalies follow patterns similar to quantum vacuum fluctuations led to the revolutionary anomaly detection system. The discovery that price paths exhibit holonomic memory unlocked the geometric phase calculations.
The Visual Revolution:
Creating visualizations that could represent 4-dimensional quantum fields on a 2D chart required innovative approaches. The multi-layer holonomy field, recursive quantum portals, and phase space flow representations went through dozens of iterations before achieving the perfect balance of beauty and functionality.
The Balancing Act:
Perhaps the greatest challenge was maintaining mathematical rigor while ensuring practical trading utility. Every formula had to be both theoretically sound and computationally efficient. Every visual had to be both aesthetically pleasing and information-rich.
The result is more than a strategy - it's a synthesis of pure mathematics and market reality that reveals the hidden order within apparent chaos.
📚 INTEGRATED DOCUMENTATION
Once applied to your chart, AHFT includes comprehensive tooltips on every input parameter. The source code contains detailed explanations of the mathematical theory, practical applications, and optimization guidelines. This published description provides the overview - the indicator itself is a complete educational resource.
⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER
While AHFT employs advanced mathematical models derived from theoretical physics, markets remain inherently unpredictable. No mathematical model, regardless of sophistication, can guarantee future results. This strategy uses realistic commission ($0.62 per contract) and slippage (1 tick) in all calculations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use appropriate risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
🌟 CONCLUSION
The Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory represents a quantum leap in technical analysis - literally. By applying the profound insights of differential geometry, quantum field theory, and gauge theory to market analysis, AHFT reveals structure and opportunities invisible to traditional methods.
From the holonomy calculations that capture market memory to the anomaly detection that identifies phase transitions, from the adaptive intelligence that learns and evolves to the stunning visualizations that make the invisible visible, every component works in mathematical harmony.
This is more than a trading strategy. It's a new lens through which to view market reality.
Trade with the precision of physics. Trade with the power of mathematics. Trade with AHFT.
I hope this serves as a good replacement for Quantum Edge Pro - Adaptive AI until I'm able to fix it.
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Market Sleep ZonesHey traders 👋
This script shows when the market is in a "sleeping" or low volatility phase. I call it Market Sleep Zones 😴
It looks at the average price movement over a window (default 20 bars), and if the price changes are small (under a % threshold you set), it highlights that area on the chart with a soft green background.
💡 This can help spot moments when the market is quiet — maybe before a breakout or just moving sideways.
It also places labels to mark where these zones start and end, so it's easy to track.
You can change:
The window size (how many bars to look back)
The breath depth (how much price is allowed to move before it’s "not sleeping" anymore)
Not perfect, but helpful if you want to avoid getting chopped in low-volatility zones or want to prepare for when the market "wakes up" 😄
Let me know if you find it useful or have ideas to improve it!
ADX Forecast [Titans_Invest]ADX Forecast
This isn’t just another ADX indicator — it’s the most powerful and complete ADX tool ever created, and without question the best ADX indicator on TradingView, possibly even the best in the world.
ADX Forecast represents a revolutionary leap in trend strength analysis, blending the timeless principles of the classic ADX with cutting-edge predictive modeling. For the first time on TradingView, you can anticipate future ADX movements using scientifically validated linear regression — a true game-changer for traders looking to stay ahead of trend shifts.
1. Real-Time ADX Forecasting
By applying least squares linear regression, ADX Forecast projects the future trajectory of the ADX with exceptional accuracy. This forecasting power enables traders to anticipate changes in trend strength before they fully unfold — a vital edge in fast-moving markets.
2. Unmatched Customization & Precision
With 26 long entry conditions and 26 short entry conditions, this indicator accounts for every possible ADX scenario. Every parameter is fully customizable, making it adaptable to any trading strategy — from scalping to swing trading to long-term investing.
3. Transparency & Advanced Visualization
Visualize internal ADX dynamics in real time with interactive tags, smart flags, and fully adjustable threshold levels. Every signal is transparent, logic-based, and engineered to fit seamlessly into professional-grade trading systems.
4. Scientific Foundation, Elite Execution
Grounded in statistical precision and machine learning principles, ADX Forecast upgrades the classic ADX from a reactive lagging tool into a forward-looking trend prediction engine. This isn’t just an indicator — it’s a scientific evolution in trend analysis.
⯁ SCIENTIFIC BASIS LINEAR REGRESSION
Linear Regression is a fundamental method of statistics and machine learning, used to model the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables 𝑥.
The general formula for a simple linear regression is given by:
y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
β₁ = Σ((xᵢ - x̄)(yᵢ - ȳ)) / Σ((xᵢ - x̄)²)
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
y = is the predicted variable (e.g. future value of RSI)
x = is the explanatory variable (e.g. time or bar index)
β0 = is the intercept (value of 𝑦 when 𝑥 = 0)
𝛽1 = is the slope of the line (rate of change)
ε = is the random error term
The goal is to estimate the coefficients 𝛽0 and 𝛽1 so as to minimize the sum of the squared errors — the so-called Random Error Method Least Squares.
⯁ LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the following formulas:
β₁ = /
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
∑ = sum
x̄ = mean of x
ȳ = mean of y
x_i, y_i = individual values of the variables.
Where:
x_i and y_i are the means of the independent and dependent variables, respectively.
i ranges from 1 to n, the number of observations.
These equations guarantee the best linear unbiased estimator, according to the Gauss-Markov theorem, assuming homoscedasticity and linearity.
⯁ LINEAR REGRESSION IN MACHINE LEARNING
Linear regression is one of the cornerstones of supervised learning. Its simplicity and ability to generate accurate quantitative predictions make it essential in AI systems, predictive algorithms, time series analysis, and automated trading strategies.
By applying this model to the ADX, you are literally putting artificial intelligence at the heart of a classic indicator, bringing a new dimension to technical analysis.
⯁ VISUAL INTERPRETATION
Imagine an ADX time series like this:
Time →
ADX →
The regression line will smooth these values and extend them n periods into the future, creating a predicted trajectory based on the historical moment. This line becomes the predicted ADX, which can be crossed with the actual ADX to generate more intelligent signals.
⯁ SUMMARY OF SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS USED
Linear Regression Models the relationship between variables using a straight line.
Least Squares Minimizes the sum of squared errors between prediction and reality.
Time Series Forecasting Estimates future values based on historical data.
Supervised Learning Trains models to predict outputs from known inputs.
Statistical Smoothing Reduces noise and reveals underlying trends.
⯁ WHY THIS INDICATOR IS REVOLUTIONARY
Scientifically-based: Based on statistical theory and mathematical inference.
Unprecedented: First public ADX with least squares predictive modeling.
Intelligent: Built with machine learning logic.
Practical: Generates forward-thinking signals.
Customizable: Flexible for any trading strategy.
⯁ CONCLUSION
By combining ADX with linear regression, this indicator allows a trader to predict market momentum, not just follow it.
ADX Forecast is not just an indicator — it is a scientific breakthrough in technical analysis technology.
⯁ Example of simple linear regression, which has one independent variable:
⯁ In linear regression, observations ( red ) are considered to be the result of random deviations ( green ) from an underlying relationship ( blue ) between a dependent variable ( y ) and an independent variable ( x ).
⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot against 100 random fitted values using Matlab:
⯁ The data sets in the Anscombe's quartet are designed to have approximately the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but are graphically very different. This illustrates the pitfalls of relying solely on a fitted model to understand the relationship between variables.
⯁ The result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function:
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🥇 This is the world’s first ADX indicator with: Linear Regression for Forecasting 🥇_______________________________________________________________________
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🔮 Linear Regression: PineScript Technical Parameters 🔮
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Forecast Types:
• Flat: Assumes prices will remain the same.
• Linreg: Makes a 'Linear Regression' forecast for n periods.
Technical Information:
ta.linreg (built-in function)
Linear regression curve. A line that best fits the specified prices over a user-defined time period. It is calculated using the least squares method. The result of this function is calculated using the formula: linreg = intercept + slope * (length - 1 - offset), where intercept and slope are the values calculated using the least squares method on the source series.
Syntax:
• Function: ta.linreg()
Parameters:
• source: Source price series.
• length: Number of bars (period).
• offset: Offset.
• return: Linear regression curve.
This function has been cleverly applied to the RSI, making it capable of projecting future values based on past statistical trends.
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⯁ WHAT IS THE ADX❓
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a technical analysis indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the strength of a trend in a market, regardless of whether the trend is up or down.
The ADX is an integral part of the Directional Movement System, which also includes the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and the Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). By combining these components, the ADX provides a comprehensive view of market trend strength.
⯁ HOW TO USE THE ADX❓
The ADX is calculated based on the moving average of the price range expansion over a specified period (usually 14 periods). It is plotted on a scale from 0 to 100 and has three main zones:
• Strong Trend: When the ADX is above 25, indicating a strong trend.
• Weak Trend: When the ADX is below 20, indicating a weak or non-existent trend.
• Neutral Zone: Between 20 and 25, where the trend strength is unclear.
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⯁ ENTRY CONDITIONS
The conditions below are fully flexible and allow for complete customization of the signal.
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🔹 CONDITIONS TO BUY 📈
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• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
🔹 +DI > -DI
🔹 +DI < -DI
🔹 +DI > ADX
🔹 +DI < ADX
🔹 -DI > ADX
🔹 -DI < ADX
🔹 ADX > Threshold
🔹 ADX < Threshold
🔹 +DI > Threshold
🔹 +DI < Threshold
🔹 -DI > Threshold
🔹 -DI < Threshold
🔹 +DI (Crossover) -DI
🔹 +DI (Crossunder) -DI
🔹 +DI (Crossover) ADX
🔹 +DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔹 +DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔹 +DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔹 -DI (Crossover) ADX
🔹 -DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔹 -DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔹 -DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔮 +DI (Crossover) -DI Forecast
🔮 +DI (Crossunder) -DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossover) +DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossunder) +DI Forecast
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🔸 CONDITIONS TO SELL 📉
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• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
🔸 +DI > -DI
🔸 +DI < -DI
🔸 +DI > ADX
🔸 +DI < ADX
🔸 -DI > ADX
🔸 -DI < ADX
🔸 ADX > Threshold
🔸 ADX < Threshold
🔸 +DI > Threshold
🔸 +DI < Threshold
🔸 -DI > Threshold
🔸 -DI < Threshold
🔸 +DI (Crossover) -DI
🔸 +DI (Crossunder) -DI
🔸 +DI (Crossover) ADX
🔸 +DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔸 +DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔸 +DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔸 -DI (Crossover) ADX
🔸 -DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔸 -DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔸 -DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔮 +DI (Crossover) -DI Forecast
🔮 +DI (Crossunder) -DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossover) +DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossunder) +DI Forecast
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🤖 AUTOMATION 🤖
• You can automate the BUY and SELL signals of this indicator.
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⯁ UNIQUE FEATURES
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Linear Regression: (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
Linear Regression (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Table of Conditions: BUY/SELL
Conditions Label: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the graph above: BUY/SELL
Automate & Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
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📜 SCRIPT : ADX Forecast
🎴 Art by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
👨💻 Dev by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
🎑 Titans Invest — The Wizards Without Gloves 🧤
✨ Enjoy!
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o Mission 🗺
• Inspire Traders to manifest Magic in the Market.
o Vision 𐓏
• To elevate collective Energy 𐓷𐓏
Transient Impact Model [ScorsoneEnterprises]This indicator is an implementation of the Transient Impact Model. This tool is designed to show the strength the current trades have on where price goes before they decay.
Here are links to more sophisticated research articles about Transient Impact Models than this post arxiv.org and arxiv.org
The way this tool is supposed to work in a simple way, is when impact is high price is sensitive to past volume, past trades being placed. When impact is low, it moves in a way that is more independent from past volume. In a more sophisticated system, perhaps transient impact should be calculated for each trade that is placed, not just the total volume of a past bar. I didn't do it to ensure parameters exist and aren’t na, as well as to have more iterations for optimization. Note that the value will change as volume does, as soon as a new candle occurs with no volume, the values could be dramatically different.
How it works
There are a few components to this script, so we’ll go into the equation and then the other functions used in this script.
// Transient Impact Model
transient_impact(params, price_change, lkb) =>
alpha = array.get(params, 0)
beta = array.get(params, 1)
lambda_ = array.get(params, 2)
instantaneous = alpha * volume
transient = 0.0
for t = 1 to lkb - 1
if na(volume )
break
transient := transient + beta * volume * math.exp(-lambda_ * t)
predicted_change = instantaneous + transient
math.pow(price_change - predicted_change, 2)
The parameters alpha, beta, and lambda all represent a different real thing.
Alpha (α):
Represents the instantaneous impact coefficient. It quantifies the immediate effect of the current volume on the price change. In the equation, instantaneous = alpha * volume , alpha scales the current bar's volume (volume ) to determine how much of the price change is due to immediate market impact. A larger alpha suggests that current volume has a stronger instantaneous influence on price.
Beta (β):
Represents the transient impact coefficient.It measures the lingering effect of past volumes on the current price change. In the loop calculating transient, beta * volume * math.exp(-lambda_ * t) shows that beta scales the volume from previous bars (volume ), contributing to a decaying effect over time. A higher beta indicates a stronger influence from past volumes, though this effect diminishes with time due to the exponential decay factor.
Lambda (λ):
Represents the decay rate of the transient impact.It controls how quickly the influence of past volumes fades over time in the transient component. In the term math.exp(-lambda_ * t), lambda determines the rate of exponential decay, where t is the time lag (in bars). A larger lambda means the impact of past volumes decays faster, while a smaller lambda implies a longer-lasting effect.
So in full.
The instantaneous term, alpha * volume , captures the immediate price impact from the current volume.
The transient term, sum of beta * volume * math.exp(-lambda_ * t) over the lookback period, models the cumulative, decaying effect of past volumes.
The total predicted_change combines these two components and is compared to the actual price change to compute an error term, math.pow(price_change - predicted_change, 2), which the script minimizes to optimize alpha, beta, and lambda.
Other parts of the script.
Objective function:
This is a wrapper function with a function to minimize so we get the best alpha, beta, and lambda values. In this case it is the Transient Impact Function, not something like a log-likelihood function, helps with efficiency for a high iteration count.
Finite Difference Gradient:
This function calculates the gradient of the objective function we spoke about. The gradient is like a directional derivative. Which is like the direction of the rate of change. Which is like the direction of the slope of a hill, we can go up or down a hill. It nudges around the parameter, and calculates the derivative of the parameter. The array of these nudged around parameters is what is returned after they are optimized.
Minimize:
This is the function that actually has the loop and calls the Finite Difference Gradient each time. Here is where the minimizing happens, how we go down the hill. If we are below a tolerance, we are at the bottom of the hill.
Applied
After an initial guess, we optimize the parameters and get the transient impact value. This number is huge, so we apply a log to it to make it more readable. From here we need some way to tell if the value is low or high. We shouldn’t use standard deviation because returns are not normally distributed, an IQR is similar and better for non normal data. We store past transient impact values in an array, so that way we can see the 25th and 90th percentiles of the data as a rolling value. If the current transient impact is above the 90th percentile, it is notably high. If below the 25th percentile, notably low. All of these values are plotted so we can use it as a tool.
Tool examples:
The idea around it is that when impact is low, there is room for big money to get size quickly and move prices around.
Here we see the price reacting in the IQR Bands. We see multiple examples where the value above the 90th percentile, the red line, corresponds to continuations in the trend, and below the 25th percentile, the purple line, corresponds to reversals. There is no guarantee these tools will be perfect, that is outlined in these situations, however there is clearly a correlation in this tool and trend.
This tool works on any timeframe, daily as we saw before, or lower like a two minute. The bands don’t represent a direction, like bullish or bearish, we need to determine that by interpreting price action. We see at open and at close there are the highest values for the transient impact. This is to be expected as these are the times with the highest volume of the trading day.
This works on futures as well as equities with the same context. Volume can be attributed to volatility as well. In volatile situations, more volatility comes in, and we can perceive it through the transient impact value.
Inputs
Users can enter the lookback value.
No tool is perfect, the transient impact value is also not perfect and should not be followed blindly. It is good to use any tool along with discretion and price action.
Borrow Fee & Squeeze TrackerSqueeze tracker.
This script helps identify potential short squeeze setups by detecting two key indicators: unusual volume and significant price changes.
The script combines both volume and price changes to give a more reliable indication of potential squeeze opportunities. When both criteria are met, it signals that there may be unusual market activity. The script also allows you to set up automatic alerts when both the volume and price change exceed thresholds, so you can react quickly to potential opportunities without constantly monitoring the charts.
Once added, you can set an alert:
Click on the Alert button
In the "Condition" dropdown, select the Squeeze Alert that was created.
Set the alert options
Now, when the script detects both a volume spike and a price change spike, it will trigger an alert based on your settings.
Enjoy!
