ORB Fusion🎯 CORE INNOVATION: INSTITUTIONAL ORB FRAMEWORK WITH FAILED BREAKOUT INTELLIGENCE
ORB Fusion represents a complete institutional-grade Opening Range Breakout system combining classic Market Profile concepts (Initial Balance, day type classification) with modern algorithmic breakout detection, failed breakout reversal logic, and comprehensive statistical tracking. Rather than simply drawing lines at opening range extremes, this system implements the full trading methodology used by professional floor traders and market makers—including the critical concept that failed breakouts are often higher-probability setups than successful breakouts .
The Opening Range Hypothesis:
The first 30-60 minutes of trading establishes the day's value area —the price range where the majority of participants agree on fair value. This range is formed during peak information flow (overnight news digestion, gap reactions, early institutional positioning). Breakouts from this range signal directional conviction; failures to hold breakouts signal trapped participants and create exploitable reversals.
Why Opening Range Matters:
1. Information Aggregation : Opening range reflects overnight news, pre-market sentiment, and early institutional orders. It's the market's initial "consensus" on value.
2. Liquidity Concentration : Stop losses cluster just outside opening range. Breakouts trigger these stops, creating momentum. Failed breakouts trap traders, forcing reversals.
3. Statistical Persistence : Markets exhibit range expansion tendency —when price accepts above/below opening range with volume, it often extends 1.0-2.0x the opening range size before mean reversion.
4. Institutional Behavior : Large players (market makers, institutions) use opening range as reference for the day's trading plan. They fade extremes in rotation days and follow breakouts in trend days.
Historical Context:
Opening Range Breakout methodology originated in commodity futures pits (1970s-80s) where floor traders noticed consistent patterns: the first 30-60 minutes established a "fair value zone," and directional moves occurred when this zone was violated with conviction. J. Peter Steidlmayer formalized this observation in Market Profile theory, introducing the "Initial Balance" concept—the first hour (two 30-minute periods) defining market structure.
📊 OPENING RANGE CONSTRUCTION
Four ORB Timeframe Options:
1. 5-Minute ORB (0930-0935 ET):
Captures immediate market direction during "opening drive"—the explosive first few minutes when overnight orders hit the tape.
Use Case:
• Scalping strategies
• High-frequency breakout trading
• Extremely liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY)
Characteristics:
• Very tight range (often 0.2-0.5% of price)
• Early breakouts common (7 of 10 days break within first hour)
• Higher false breakout rate (50-60%)
• Requires sub-minute chart monitoring
Psychology: Captures panic buyers/sellers reacting to overnight news. Range is small because sample size is minimal—only 5 minutes of price discovery. Early breakouts often fail because they're driven by retail FOMO rather than institutional conviction.
2. 15-Minute ORB (0930-0945 ET):
Balances responsiveness with statistical validity. Captures opening drive plus initial reaction to that drive.
Use Case:
• Day trading strategies
• Balanced scalping/swing hybrid
• Most liquid instruments
Characteristics:
• Moderate range (0.4-0.8% of price typically)
• Breakout rate ~60% of days
• False breakout rate ~40-45%
• Good balance of opportunity and reliability
Psychology: Includes opening panic AND the first retest/consolidation. Sophisticated traders (institutions, algos) start expressing directional bias. This is the "Goldilocks" timeframe—not too reactive, not too slow.
3. 30-Minute ORB (0930-1000 ET):
Classic ORB timeframe. Default for most professional implementations.
Use Case:
• Standard intraday trading
• Position sizing for full-day trades
• All liquid instruments (equities, indices, futures)
Characteristics:
• Substantial range (0.6-1.2% of price)
• Breakout rate ~55% of days
• False breakout rate ~35-40%
• Statistical sweet spot for extensions
Psychology: Full opening auction + first institutional repositioning complete. By 10:00 AM ET, headlines are digested, early stops are hit, and "real" directional players reveal themselves. This is when institutional programs typically finish their opening positioning.
Statistical Advantage: 30-minute ORB shows highest correlation with daily range. When price breaks and holds outside 30m ORB, probability of reaching 1.0x extension (doubling the opening range) exceeds 60% historically.
4. 60-Minute ORB (0930-1030 ET) - Initial Balance:
Steidlmayer's "Initial Balance"—the foundation of Market Profile theory.
Use Case:
• Swing trading entries
• Day type classification
• Low-frequency institutional setups
Characteristics:
• Wide range (0.8-1.5% of price)
• Breakout rate ~45% of days
• False breakout rate ~25-30% (lowest)
• Best for trend day identification
Psychology: Full first hour captures A-period (0930-1000) and B-period (1000-1030). By 10:30 AM ET, all early positioning is complete. Market has "voted" on value. Subsequent price action confirms (trend day) or rejects (rotation day) this value assessment.
Initial Balance Theory:
IB represents the market's accepted value area . When price extends significantly beyond IB (>1.5x IB range), it signals a Trend Day —strong directional conviction. When price remains within 1.0x IB, it signals a Rotation Day —mean reversion environment. This classification completely changes trading strategy.
🔬 LTF PRECISION TECHNOLOGY
The Chart Timeframe Problem:
Traditional ORB indicators calculate range using the chart's current timeframe. This creates critical inaccuracies:
Example:
• You're on a 5-minute chart
• ORB period is 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET)
• Indicator sees only 6 bars (30min ÷ 5min/bar = 6 bars)
• If any 5-minute bar has extreme wick, entire ORB is distorted
The Problem Amplifies:
• On 15-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 2 bars sampled
• On 30-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 1 bar sampled
• Opening spike or single large wick defines entire range (invalid)
Solution: Lower Timeframe (LTF) Precision:
ORB Fusion uses `request.security_lower_tf()` to sample 1-minute bars regardless of chart timeframe:
```
For 30-minute ORB on 15-minute chart:
- Traditional method: Uses 2 bars (15min × 2 = 30min)
- LTF Precision: Requests thirty 1-minute bars, calculates true high/low
```
Why This Matters:
Scenario: ES futures, 15-minute chart, 30-minute ORB
• Traditional ORB: High = 5850.00, Low = 5842.00 (range = 8 points)
• LTF Precision ORB: High = 5848.50, Low = 5843.25 (range = 5.25 points)
Difference: 2.75 points distortion from single 15-minute wick hitting 5850.00 at 9:31 AM then immediately reversing. LTF precision filters this out by seeing it was a fleeting wick, not a sustained high.
Impact on Extensions:
With inflated range (8 points vs 5.25 points):
• 1.5x extension projects +12 points instead of +7.875 points
• Difference: 4.125 points (nearly $200 per ES contract)
• Breakout signals trigger late; extension targets unreachable
Implementation:
```pinescript
getLtfHighLow() =>
float ha = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", high)
float la = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", low)
```
Function returns arrays of 1-minute high/low values, then finds true maximum and minimum across all samples.
When LTF Precision Activates:
Only when chart timeframe exceeds ORB session window:
• 5-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF used (chart TF > session bars needed)
• 1-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF not needed (direct sampling sufficient)
Recommendation: Always enable LTF Precision unless you're on 1-minute charts. The computational overhead is negligible, and accuracy improvement is substantial.
⚖️ INITIAL BALANCE (IB) FRAMEWORK
Steidlmayer's Market Profile Innovation:
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s for the Chicago Board of Trade. His key insight: market structure is best understood through time-at-price (value area) rather than just price-over-time (traditional charts).
Initial Balance Definition:
IB is the price range established during the first hour of trading, subdivided into:
• A-Period : First 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET for US equities)
• B-Period : Second 30 minutes (1000-1030 ET)
A-Period vs B-Period Comparison:
The relationship between A and B periods forecasts the day:
B-Period Expansion (Bullish):
• B-period high > A-period high
• B-period low ≥ A-period low
• Interpretation: Buyers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bullish continuation likely
• Strategy: Buy pullbacks to A-period high (now support)
B-Period Expansion (Bearish):
• B-period low < A-period low
• B-period high ≤ A-period high
• Interpretation: Sellers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bearish continuation likely
• Strategy: Sell rallies to A-period low (now resistance)
B-Period Contraction:
• B-period stays within A-period range
• Interpretation: Market indecisive, digesting A-period information
• Implication: Rotation day likely, stay range-bound
• Strategy: Fade extremes, sell high/buy low within IB
IB Extensions:
Professional traders use IB as a ruler to project price targets:
Extension Levels:
• 0.5x IB : Initial probe outside value (minor target)
• 1.0x IB : Full extension (major target for normal days)
• 1.5x IB : Trend day threshold (classifies as trending)
• 2.0x IB : Strong trend day (rare, ~10-15% of days)
Calculation:
```
IB Range = IB High - IB Low
Bull Extension 1.0x = IB High + (IB Range × 1.0)
Bear Extension 1.0x = IB Low - (IB Range × 1.0)
```
Example:
ES futures:
• IB High: 5850.00
• IB Low: 5842.00
• IB Range: 8.00 points
Extensions:
• 1.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 8 = 5858.00
• 1.5x Bull Target: 5850 + 12 = 5862.00
• 2.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 16 = 5866.00
If price reaches 5862.00 (1.5x), day is classified as Trend Day —strategy shifts from mean reversion to trend following.
📈 DAY TYPE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Four Day Types (Market Profile Framework):
1. TREND DAY:
Definition: Price extends ≥1.5x IB range in one direction and stays there.
Characteristics:
• Opens and never returns to IB
• Persistent directional movement
• Volume increases as day progresses (conviction building)
• News-driven or strong institutional flow
Frequency: ~20-25% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Follow the trend, trail stops, let winners run
• DON'T: Fade extremes, take early profits
• Key: Add to position on pullbacks to previous extension level
• Risk: Getting chopped in false trend (see Failed Breakout section)
Example: FOMC decision, payroll report, earnings surprise—anything creating one-sided conviction.
2. NORMAL DAY:
Definition: Price extends 0.5-1.5x IB, tests both sides, returns to IB.
Characteristics:
• Two-sided trading
• Extensions occur but don't persist
• Volume balanced throughout day
• Most common day type
Frequency: ~45-50% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Take profits at extension levels, expect reversals
• DON'T: Hold for massive moves
• Key: Treat each extension as a profit-taking opportunity
• Risk: Holding too long when momentum shifts
Example: Typical day with no major catalysts—market balancing supply and demand.
3. ROTATION DAY:
Definition: Price stays within IB all day, rotating between high and low.
Characteristics:
• Never accepts outside IB
• Multiple tests of IB high/low
• Decreasing volume (no conviction)
• Classic range-bound action
Frequency: ~25-30% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Fade extremes (sell IB high, buy IB low)
• DON'T: Chase breakouts
• Key: Enter at extremes with tight stops just outside IB
• Risk: Breakout finally occurs after multiple failures
Example: [/b> Pre-holiday trading, summer doldrums, consolidation after big move.
4. DEVELOPING:
Definition: Day type not yet determined (early in session).
Usage: Classification before 12:00 PM ET when IB extension pattern unclear.
ORB Fusion's Classification Algorithm:
```pinescript
if close > ibHigh:
ibExtension = (close - ibHigh) / ibRange
direction = "BULLISH"
else if close < ibLow:
ibExtension = (ibLow - close) / ibRange
direction = "BEARISH"
if ibExtension >= 1.5:
dayType = "TREND DAY"
else if ibExtension >= 0.5:
dayType = "NORMAL DAY"
else if close within IB:
dayType = "ROTATION DAY"
```
Why Classification Matters:
Same setup (bullish ORB breakout) has opposite implications:
• Trend Day : Hold for 2.0x extension, trail stops aggressively
• Normal Day : Take profits at 1.0x extension, watch for reversal
• Rotation Day : Fade the breakout immediately (likely false)
Knowing day type prevents catastrophic errors like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
🚀 BREAKOUT DETECTION & CONFIRMATION
Three Confirmation Methods:
1. Close Beyond Level (Recommended):
Logic: Candle must close above ORB high (bull) or below ORB low (bear).
Why:
• Filters out wicks (temporary liquidity grabs)
• Ensures sustained acceptance above/below range
• Reduces false breakout rate by ~20-30%
Example:
• ORB High: 5850.00
• Bar high touches 5850.50 (wick above)
• Bar closes at 5848.00 (inside range)
• Result: NO breakout signal
vs.
• Bar high touches 5850.50
• Bar closes at 5851.00 (outside range)
• Result: BREAKOUT signal confirmed
Trade-off: Slightly delayed entry (wait for close) but much higher reliability.
2. Wick Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Any touch of ORB high/low triggers breakout.
Why:
• Earliest possible entry
• Captures aggressive momentum moves
Risk:
• High false breakout rate (60-70%)
• Stop runs trigger signals
• Requires very tight stops (difficult to manage)
Use Case: Scalping with 1-2 point profit targets where any penetration = trade.
3. Body Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Candle body (close vs open) must be entirely outside range.
Why:
• Strictest confirmation
• Ensures directional conviction (not just momentum)
• Lowest false breakout rate
Example: Trade-off: [/b> Very conservative—misses some valid breakouts but rarely triggers on false ones.
Volume Confirmation Layer:
All confirmation methods can require volume validation:
Volume Multiplier Logic: Rationale: [/b> True breakouts are driven by institutional activity (large size). Volume spike confirms real conviction vs. stop-run manipulation.
Statistical Impact: [/b>
• Breakouts with volume confirmation: ~65% success rate
• Breakouts without volume: ~45% success rate
• Difference: 20 percentage points edge
Implementation Note: [/b>
Volume confirmation adds complexity—you'll miss breakouts that work but lack volume. However, when targeting 1.5x+ extensions (ambitious goals), volume confirmation becomes critical because those moves require sustained institutional participation.
Recommended Settings by Strategy: [/b>
Scalping (1-2 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: OFF
• Rationale: Quick in/out doesn't need perfection
Intraday Swing (5-10 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: ON (1.5x multiplier)
• Rationale: Balance reliability and opportunity
Position Trading (full-day holds): [/b>
• Method: Body
• Volume: ON (2.0x multiplier)
• Rationale: Must be certain—large stops require high win rate
🔥 FAILED BREAKOUT SYSTEM
The Core Insight: [/b>
Failed breakouts are often more profitable [/b> than successful breakouts because they create trapped traders with predictable behavior.
Failed Breakout Definition: [/b>
A breakout that:
1. Initially penetrates ORB level with confirmation
2. Attracts participants (volume spike, momentum)
3. Fails to extend (stalls or immediately reverses)
4. Returns inside ORB range within N bars
Psychology of Failure: [/b>
When breakout fails:
• Breakout buyers are trapped [/b>: Bought at ORB high, now underwater
• Early longs reduce: Take profit, fearful of reversal
• Shorts smell blood: See failed breakout as reversal signal
• Result: Cascade of selling as trapped bulls exit + new shorts enter
Mirror image for failed bearish breakouts (trapped shorts cover + new longs enter).
Failure Detection Parameters: [/b>
1. Failure Confirmation Bars (default: 3): [/b>
How many bars after breakout to confirm failure?
Logic: Settings: [/b>
• 2 bars: Aggressive failure detection (more signals, more false failures)
• 3 bars Balanced (default)
• 5-10 bars: Conservative (wait for clear reversal)
Why This Matters:
Too few bars: You call "failed breakout" when price is just consolidating before next leg.
Too many bars: You miss the reversal entry (price already back in range).
2. Failure Buffer (default: 0.1 ATR): [/b>
How far inside ORB must price return to confirm failure?
Formula: Why Buffer Matters: clear rejection [/b> (not just hovering at level).
Settings: [/b>
• 0.0 ATR: No buffer, immediate failure signal
• 0.1 ATR: Small buffer (default) - filters noise
• [b>0.2-0.3 ATR: Large buffer - only dramatic failures count
Example: Reversal Entry System: [/b>
When failure confirmed, system generates complete reversal trade:
For Failed Bull Breakout (Short Reversal): [/b>
Entry: [/b> Current close when failure confirmed
Stop Loss: [/b> Extreme high since breakout + 0.10 ATR padding
Target 1: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 0.5)
Target 2: Target 3: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 1.5)
Example:
• ORB High: 5850, ORB Low: 5842, Range: 8 points
• Breakout to 5853, fails, reverses to 5848 (entry)
• Stop: 5853 + 1 = 5854 (6 point risk)
• T1: 5850 - 4 = 5846 (-2 points, 1:3 R:R)
• T2: 5850 - 8 = 5842 (-6 points, 1:1 R:R)
• T3: 5850 - 12 = 5838 (-10 points, 1.67:1 R:R)
[b>Why These Targets? [/b>
• T1 (0.5x ORB below high): Trapped bulls start panic
• T2 (1.0x ORB = ORB Mid): Major retracement, momentum fully reversed
• T3 (1.5x ORB): Reversal extended, now targeting opposite side
Historical Performance: [/b>
Failed breakout reversals in ORB Fusion's tracking system show:
• Win Rate: 65-75% (significantly higher than initial breakouts)
• Average Winner: 1.2x ORB range
• Average Loser: 0.5x ORB range (protected by stop at extreme)
• Expectancy: Strongly positive even with <70% win rate
Why Failed Breakouts Outperform: [/b>
1. Information Advantage: You now know what price did (failed to extend). Initial breakout trades are speculative; reversal trades are reactive to confirmed failure.
2. Trapped Participant Pressure: Every trapped bull becomes a seller. This creates sustained pressure.
3. Stop Loss Clarity: Extreme high is obvious stop (just beyond recent high). Breakout trades have ambiguous stops (ORB mid? Recent low? Too wide or too tight).
4. Mean Reversion Edge: Failed breakouts return to value (ORB mid). Initial breakouts try to escape value (harder to sustain).
Critical Insight: [/b>
"The best trade is often the one that trapped everyone else."
Failed breakouts create asymmetric opportunity because you're trading against [/b> trapped participants rather than with [/b> them. When you see a failed breakout signal, you're seeing real-time evidence that the market rejected directional conviction—that's exploitable.
📐 FIBONACCI EXTENSION SYSTEM
Six Extension Levels: [/b>
Extensions project how far price will travel after ORB breakout. Based on Fibonacci ratios + empirical market behavior.
1. 1.272x (27.2% Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.272)
Psychology: [/b> Initial probe beyond ORB. Early momentum + trapped shorts (on bull side) covering.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~75-80% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• First resistance/support after breakout
• Partial profit target (take 30-50% off)
• Watch for rejection here (could signal failure in progress)
Why 1.272? [/b> Related to harmonic patterns (1.272 is √1.618). Empirically, markets often stall at 25-30% extension before deciding whether to continue or fail.
2. 1.5x (50% Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.5)
Psychology: [/b> Breakout gaining conviction. Requires sustained buying/selling (not just momentum spike).
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~60-65% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Major partial profit (take 50-70% off)
• Move stops to breakeven
• Trail remaining position
Why 1.5x? [/b> Classic halfway point to 2.0x. Markets often consolidate here before final push. If day type is "Normal," this is likely the high/low for the day.
3. 1.618x (Golden Ratio Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.618)
Psychology: [/b> Strong directional day. Institutional conviction + retail FOMO.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~45-50% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Final partial profit (close 80-90%)
• Trail remainder with wide stop (allow breathing room)
Why 1.618? [/b> Fibonacci golden ratio. Appears consistently in market geometry. When price reaches 1.618x extension, move is "mature" and reversal risk increases.
4. 2.0x (100% Extension): [/b>
Formula: ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.0)
Psychology: [/b> Trend day confirmed. Opening range completely duplicated.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~30-35% after confirmed breakout
Trading: Why 2.0x? [/b> Psychological level—range doubled. Also corresponds to typical daily ATR in many instruments (opening range ~ 0.5 ATR, daily range ~ 1.0 ATR).
5. 2.618x (Super Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.618)
Psychology: [/b> Parabolic move. News-driven or squeeze.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~10-15% after confirmed breakout
[b>Trading: Why 2.618? [/b> Fibonacci ratio (1.618²). Rare to reach—when it does, move is extreme. Often precedes multi-day consolidation or reversal.
6. 3.0x (Extreme Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 2.0)
Psychology: [/b> Market melt-up/crash. Only in extreme events.
[b>Probability of Reach: [/b> <5% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Close immediately if reached
• These are outlier events (black swans, flash crashes, squeeze-outs)
• Holding for more is greed—take windfall profit
Why 3.0x? [/b> Triple opening range. So rare it's statistical noise. When it happens, it's headline news.
Visual Example:
ES futures, ORB 5842-5850 (8 point range), Bullish breakout:
• ORB High : 5850.00 (entry zone)
• 1.272x : 5850 + 2.18 = 5852.18 (first resistance)
• 1.5x : 5850 + 4.00 = 5854.00 (major target)
• 1.618x : 5850 + 4.94 = 5854.94 (strong target)
• 2.0x : 5850 + 8.00 = 5858.00 (trend day)
• 2.618x : 5850 + 12.94 = 5862.94 (extreme)
• 3.0x : 5850 + 16.00 = 5866.00 (parabolic)
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Optimal scaling out at extensions:
• Breakout entry at 5850.50
• 30% off at 1.272x (5852.18) → +1.68 points
• 40% off at 1.5x (5854.00) → +3.50 points
• 20% off at 1.618x (5854.94) → +4.44 points
• 10% off at 2.0x (5858.00) → +7.50 points
[b>Average Exit: Conclusion: [/b> Scaling out at extensions produces 40% higher expectancy than holding for home runs.
📊 GAP ANALYSIS & FILL PSYCHOLOGY
[b>Gap Definition: [/b>
Price discontinuity between previous close and current open:
• Gap Up : Open > Previous Close + noise threshold (0.1 ATR)
• Gap Down : Open < Previous Close - noise threshold
Why Gaps Matter: [/b>
Gaps represent unfilled orders [/b>. When market gaps up, all limit buy orders between yesterday's close and today's open are never filled. Those buyers are "left behind." Psychology: they wait for price to return ("fill the gap") so they can enter. This creates magnetic pull [/b> toward gap level.
Gap Fill Statistics (Empirical): [/b>
• Gaps <0.5% [/b>: 85-90% fill within same day
• Gaps 0.5-1.0% [/b>: 70-75% fill within same day, 90%+ within week
• Gaps >1.0% [/b>: 50-60% fill within same day (major news often prevents fill)
Gap Fill Strategy: [/b>
Setup 1: Gap-and-Go
Gap opens, extends away from gap (doesn't fill).
• ORB confirms direction away from gap
• Trade WITH ORB breakout direction
• Expectation: Gap won't fill today (momentum too strong)
Setup 2: Gap-Fill Fade
Gap opens, but fails to extend. Price drifts back toward gap.
• ORB breakout TOWARD gap (not away)
• Trade toward gap fill level
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
Setup 3: Gap-Fill Rejection
Gap fills (touches previous close) then rejects.
• ORB breakout AWAY from gap after fill
• Trade away from gap direction
• Thesis: Gap filled (orders executed), now resume original direction
[b>Example: Scenario A (Gap-and-Go):
• ORB breaks upward to $454 (away from gap)
• Trade: LONG breakout, expect continued rally
• Gap becomes support ($452)
Scenario B (Gap-Fill):
• ORB breaks downward through $452.50 (toward gap)
• Trade: SHORT toward gap fill at $450.00
• Target: $450.00 (gap filled), close position
Scenario C (Gap-Fill Rejection):
• Price drifts to $450.00 (gap filled) early in session
• ORB establishes $450-$451 after gap fill
• ORB breaks upward to $451.50
• Trade: LONG breakout (gap is filled, now resume rally)
ORB Fusion Integration: [/b>
Dashboard shows:
• Gap type (Up/Down/None)
• Gap size (percentage)
• Gap fill status (Filled ✓ / Open)
This informs setup confidence:
• ORB breakout AWAY from unfilled gap: +10% confidence (gap becomes support/resistance)
• ORB breakout TOWARD unfilled gap: -10% confidence (gap fill may override ORB)
[b>📈 VWAP & INSTITUTIONAL BIAS [/b>
[b>Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): [/b>
Average price weighted by volume at each price level. Represents true "average" cost for the day.
[b>Calculation: Institutional Benchmark [/b>: Institutions (mutual funds, pension funds) use VWAP as performance benchmark. If they buy above VWAP, they underperformed; below VWAP, they outperformed.
2. [b>Algorithmic Target [/b>: Many algos are programmed to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP to achieve "fair" execution.
3. [b>Support/Resistance [/b>: VWAP acts as dynamic support (price above) or resistance (price below).
[b>VWAP Bands (Standard Deviations): [/b>
• [b>1σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 1 standard deviation
- Contains ~68% of volume
- Normal trading range
- Bounces common
• [b>2σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 2 standard deviations
- Contains ~95% of volume
- Extreme extension
- Mean reversion likely
ORB + VWAP Confluence: [/b>
Highest-probability setups occur when ORB and VWAP align:
Bullish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout upward (bullish signal)
• Price above VWAP (institutional buying)
• Confidence boost: +15%
Bearish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout downward (bearish signal)
• Price below VWAP (institutional selling)
• Confidence boost: +15%
[b>Divergence Warning:
• ORB breakout upward BUT price below VWAP
• Conflict: Breakout says "buy," VWAP says "sell"
• Confidence penalty: -10%
• Interpretation: Retail buying but institutions not participating (lower quality breakout)
📊 MOMENTUM CONTEXT SYSTEM
[b>Innovation: Candle Coloring by Position
Rather than fixed support/resistance lines, ORB Fusion colors candles based on their [b>relationship to ORB :
[b>Three Zones: [/b>
1. Inside ORB (Blue Boxes): [/b>
[b>Calculation:
• Darker blue: Near extremes of ORB (potential breakout imminent)
• Lighter blue: Near ORB mid (consolidation)
[b>Trading: [/b> Coiled spring—await breakout.
[b>2. Above ORB (Green Boxes):
[b>Calculation: 3. Below ORB (Red Boxes):
Mirror of above ORB logic.
[b>Special Contexts: [/b>
[b>Breakout Bar (Darkest Green/Red): [/b>
The specific bar where breakout occurs gets maximum color intensity regardless of distance. This highlights the pivotal moment.
[b>Failed Breakout Bar (Orange/Warning): [/b>
When failed breakout is confirmed, that bar gets orange/warning color. Visual alert: "reversal opportunity here."
[b>Near Extension (Cyan/Magenta Tint): [/b>
When price is within 0.5 ATR of an extension level, candle gets tinted cyan (bull) or magenta (bear). Indicates "target approaching—prepare to take profit."
[b>Why Visual Context? [/b>
Traditional indicators show lines. ORB Fusion shows [b>context-aware momentum [/b>. Glance at chart:
• Lots of blue? Consolidation day (fade extremes).
• Progressive green? Trend day (follow).
• Green then orange? Failed breakout (reversal setup).
This visual language communicates market state instantly—no interpretation needed.
🎯 TRADE SETUP GENERATION & GRADING [/b>
[b>Algorithmic Setup Detection: [/b>
ORB Fusion continuously evaluates market state and generates current best trade setup with:
• Action (LONG / SHORT / FADE HIGH / FADE LOW / WAIT)
• Entry price
• Stop loss
• Three targets
• Risk:Reward ratio
• Confidence score (0-100)
• Grade (A+ to D)
[b>Setup Types: [/b>
[b>1. ORB LONG (Bullish Breakout): [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bullish ORB breakout confirmed
• Not failed
[b>Parameters:
• Entry: Current close
• Stop: ORB mid (protects against failure)
• T1: ORB High + 0.5x range (1.5x extension)
• T2: ORB High + 1.0x range (2.0x extension)
• T3: ORB High + 1.618x range (2.618x extension)
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bearish breakout occurred
• Failed (returned inside ORB)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: Close when failure confirmed
• Stop: Extreme low since breakout + 0.10 ATR
• T1: ORB Low + 0.5x range
• T2: ORB Low + 1.0x range (ORB mid)
• T3: ORB Low + 1.5x range
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger:
• Inside ORB
• Close > ORB mid (near high)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: ORB High (limit order)
• Stop: ORB High + 0.2x range
• T1: ORB Mid
• T2: ORB Low
[b>Confidence Scoring: [/b>
Base: 40 points (lower base—range fading is lower probability than breakout/reversal)
[b>Use Case: [/b> Rotation days. Not recommended on normal/trend days.
[b>6. FADE LOW (Range Trade):
Mirror of FADE HIGH.
[b>7. WAIT:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• ORB not complete yet OR
• No clear setup (price in no-man's-land)
[b>Action: [/b> Observe, don't trade.
[b>Confidence: [/b> 0 points
[b>Grading System:
```
Confidence → Grade
85-100 → A+
75-84 → A
65-74 → B+
55-64 → B
45-54 → C
0-44 → D
```
[b>Grade Interpretation: [/b>
• [b>A+ / A: High probability setup. Take these trades.
• [b>B+ / B [/b>: Decent setup. Trade if fits system rules.
• [b>C [/b>: Marginal setup. Only if very experienced.
• [b>D [/b>: Poor setup or no setup. Don't trade.
[b>Example Scenario: [/b>
ES futures:
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 point range)
• Bullish breakout to 5851 confirmed
• Volume: 2.0x average (confirmed)
• VWAP: 5845 (price above VWAP ✓)
• Day type: Developing (too early, no bonus)
• Gap: None
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Action: LONG
• Entry: 5851
• Stop: 5846 (ORB mid, -5 point risk)
• T1: 5854 (+3 points, 1:0.6 R:R)
• T2: 5858 (+7 points, 1:1.4 R:R)
• T3: 5862.94 (+11.94 points, 1:2.4 R:R)
[b>Confidence: LONG with 55% confidence.
Interpretation: Solid setup, not perfect. Trade it if your system allows B-grade signals.
[b>📊 STATISTICS TRACKING & PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS [/b>
[b>Real-Time Performance Metrics: [/b>
ORB Fusion tracks comprehensive statistics over user-defined lookback (default 50 days):
[b>Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Bull Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
• [b>Bear Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
[b>Win Definition: [/b> Breakout reaches ≥1.0x extension (doubles the opening range) before end of day.
[b>Example: [/b>
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 points)
• Bull breakout at 5851
• Reaches 5858 (1.0x extension) by close
• Result: WIN
[b>Failed Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Total Failed Breakouts [/b>: Count of breakouts that failed
• [b>Reversal Wins [/b>: Count where reversal trade reached target
• [b>Failed Reversal Win Rate [/b>: Wins / Total Failed
[b>Win Definition for Reversals: [/b>
• Failed bull → reversal short reaches ORB mid
• Failed bear → reversal long reaches ORB mid
[b>Extension Tracking: [/b>
• [b>Average Extension Reached [/b>: Mean of maximum extension achieved across all breakout days
• [b>Max Extension Overall [/b>: Largest extension ever achieved in lookback period
[b>Example: 🎨 THREE DISPLAY MODES
[b>Design Philosophy: [/b>
Not all traders need all features. Beginners want simplicity. Professionals want everything. ORB Fusion adapts.
[b>SIMPLE MODE: [/b>
[b>Shows: [/b>
• Primary ORB levels (High, Mid, Low)
• ORB box
• Breakout signals (triangles)
• Failed breakout signals (crosses)
• Basic dashboard (ORB status, breakout status, setup)
• VWAP
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels and extensions
• ORB extensions beyond basic levels
• Gap analysis visuals
• Statistics dashboard
• Momentum candle coloring
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Traders who want clean chart
• Focus on core ORB concept only
• Mobile trading (less screen space)
[b>STANDARD MODE:
[b>Shows Everything in Simple Plus: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels (high, low, mid)
• IB extensions
• ORB extensions (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x)
• Gap analysis and fill targets
• VWAP bands (1σ and 2σ)
• Momentum candle coloring
• Context section in dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Advanced extensions (2.618x, 3.0x)
• Detailed statistics dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Most traders
• Balance between information and clarity
• Covers 90% of use cases
[b>ADVANCED MODE:
[b>Shows Everything:
• All session ORBs
• All IB levels and extensions
• All ORB extensions (including 2.618x and 3.0x)
• Full gap analysis
• VWAP with both 1σ and 2σ bands
• Momentum candle coloring
• Complete statistics dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
• All context metrics
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Professional traders
• System developers
• Those who want maximum information density
[b>Switching Modes: [/b>
Single dropdown input: "Display Mode" → Simple / Standard / Advanced
Entire indicator adapts instantly. No need to toggle 20 individual settings.
📖 NARRATIVE DASHBOARD
[b>Innovation: Plain-English Market State [/b>
Most indicators show data. ORB Fusion explains what the data [b>means [/b>.
[b>Narrative Components: [/b>
[b>1. Phase: [/b>
• "📍 Building ORB..." (during ORB session)
• "📊 Trading Phase" (after ORB complete)
• "⏳ Pre-Market" (before ORB session)
[b>2. Status (Current Observation): [/b>
• "⚠️ Failed breakout - reversal likely"
• "🚀 Bullish momentum in play"
• "📉 Bearish momentum in play"
• "⚖️ Consolidating in range"
• "👀 Monitoring for setup"
[b>3. Next Level:
Tells you what to watch for:
• "🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00" (next extension target)
• "Watch ORB levels" (inside range, await breakout)
[b>4. Setup: [/b>
Current trade setup + grade:
• "LONG " (bullish breakout, A-grade)
• "🔥 SHORT REVERSAL " (failed bull breakout, A+-grade)
• "WAIT " (no setup)
[b>5. Reason: [/b>
Why this setup exists:
• "ORB Bullish Breakout"
• "Failed Bear Breakout - High Probability Reversal"
• "Range Fade - Near High"
[b>6. Tip (Market Insight):
Contextual advice:
• "🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops" (day type is trending)
• "🔄 ROTATION - Fade extremes" (day type is rotating)
• "📊 Gap unfilled - magnet level" (gap creates target)
• "📈 Normal conditions" (no special context)
[b>Example Narrative:
```
📖 ORB Narrative
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase | 📊 Trading Phase
Status | 🚀 Bullish momentum in play
Next | 🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00
📈 Setup | LONG
Reason | ORB Bullish Breakout
💡 Tip | 🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops
```
[b>Glance Interpretation: [/b>
"We're in trading phase. Bullish breakout happened (momentum in play). Next target is 1.5x extension at 5854. Current setup is LONG with A-grade. It's a trend day, so trail stops (don't take early profits)."
Complete market state communicated in 6 lines. No interpretation needed.
[b>Why This Matters:
Beginner traders struggle with "So what?" question. Indicators show lines and signals, but what does it mean [/b>? Narrative dashboard bridges this gap.
Professional traders benefit too—rapid context assessment during fast-moving markets. No time to analyze; glance at narrative, get action plan.
🔔 INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
[b>Four Alert Types: [/b>
[b>1. Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> ORB breakout confirmed (bull or bear)
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🚀 ORB BULLISH BREAKOUT
Price: 5851.00
Volume Confirmed
Grade: A
```
[b>Frequency: [/b> Once per bar (prevents spam)
[b>2. Failed Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Breakout fails, reversal setup generated
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🔥 FAILED BULLISH BREAKOUT!
HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT REVERSAL
Entry: 5848.00
Stop: 5854.00
T1: 5846.00
T2: 5842.00
Historical Win Rate: 73%
```
[b>Why Comprehensive? [/b> Failed breakout alerts include complete trade plan. You can execute immediately from alert—no need to check chart.
[b>3. Extension Alert:
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price reaches extension level for first time
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🎯 Bull Extension 1.5x reached @ 5854.00
```
[b>Use: [/b> Profit-taking reminder. When extension hit, consider scaling out.
[b>4. IB Break Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price breaks above IB high or below IB low
[b>Message: [/b>
```
📊 IB HIGH BROKEN - Potential Trend Day
```
[b>Use: [/b> Day type classification. IB break suggests trend day developing—adjust strategy to trend-following mode.
[b>Alert Management: [/b>
Each alert type can be enabled/disabled independently. Prevents notification overload.
[b>Cooldown Logic: [/b>
Alerts won't fire if same alert type triggered within last bar. Prevents:
• "Breakout" alert every tick during choppy breakout
• Multiple "extension" alerts if price oscillates at level
Ensures: One clean alert per event.
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
[b>Opening Range Settings: [/b>
• [b>ORB Timeframe [/b> (5/15/30/60 min): Duration of opening range window
- 30 min recommended for most traders
• [b>Use RTH Only [/b> (ON/OFF): Only trade during regular trading hours
- ON recommended (avoids thin overnight markets)
• [b>Use LTF Precision [/b> (ON/OFF): Sample 1-minute bars for accuracy
- ON recommended (critical for charts >1 minute)
• [b>Precision TF [/b> (1/5 min): Timeframe for LTF sampling
- 1 min recommended (most accurate)
[b>Session ORBs: [/b>
• [b>Show Asian/London/NY ORB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display multi-session ranges
- OFF in Simple mode
- ON in Standard/Advanced if trading 24hr markets
• [b>Session Windows [/b>: Time ranges for each session ORB
- Defaults align with major session opens
[b>Initial Balance: [/b>
• [b>Show IB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display Initial Balance levels
- ON recommended for day type classification
• [b>IB Session Window [/b> (0930-1030): First hour of trading
- Default is standard for US equities
• [b>Show IB Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project IB extension targets
- ON recommended (identifies trend days)
• [b>IB Extensions 1-4 [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x): Extension multipliers
- Defaults are Market Profile standard
[b>ORB Extensions: [/b>
• [b>Show Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project ORB extension targets
- ON recommended (defines profit targets)
• [b>Enable Individual Extensions [/b> (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, 2.618x, 3.0x)
- Enable 1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x minimum
- Disable 2.618x and 3.0x unless trading very volatile instruments
[b>Breakout Detection:
• [b>Confirmation Method [/b> (Close/Wick/Body):
- Close recommended (best balance)
- Wick for scalping
- Body for conservative
• [b>Require Volume Confirmation [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (increases reliability)
• [b>Volume Multiplier [/b> (1.0-3.0):
- 1.5x recommended
- Lower for thin instruments
- Higher for heavy volume instruments
[b>Failed Breakout System: [/b>
• [b>Enable Failed Breakouts [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON strongly recommended (highest edge)
• [b>Bars to Confirm Failure [/b> (2-10):
- 3 bars recommended
- 2 for aggressive (more signals, more false failures)
- 5+ for conservative (fewer signals, higher quality)
• [b>Failure Buffer [/b> (0.0-0.5 ATR):
- 0.1 ATR recommended
- Filters noise during consolidation near ORB level
• [b>Show Reversal Targets [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (visualizes trade plan)
• [b>Reversal Target Mults [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x):
- Defaults are tested values
- Adjust based on average daily range
[b>Gap Analysis:
• [b>Show Gap Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON if trading instruments that gap frequently
- OFF for 24hr markets (forex, crypto—no gaps)
• [b>Gap Fill Target [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON to visualize previous close (gap fill level)
[b>VWAP:
• [b>Show VWAP [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (key institutional level)
• [b>Show VWAP Bands [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON in Standard/Advanced
- OFF in Simple
• [b>Band Multipliers (1.0σ, 2.0σ):
- Defaults are standard
- 1σ = normal range, 2σ = extreme
[b>Day Type: [/b>
• [b>Show Day Type Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (critical for strategy adaptation)
• [b>Trend Day Threshold [/b> (1.0-2.5 IB mult):
- 1.5x recommended
- When price extends >1.5x IB, classifies as Trend Day
[b>Enhanced Visuals:
• [b>Show Momentum Candles [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for visual context
- OFF if chart gets too colorful
• [b>Show Gradient Zone Fills [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for professional look
- OFF for minimalist chart
• [b>Label Display Mode [/b> (All/Adaptive/Minimal):
- Adaptive recommended (shows nearby labels only)
- All for information density
- Minimal for clean chart
• [b>Label Proximity [/b> (1.0-5.0 ATR):
- 3.0 ATR recommended
- Labels beyond this distance are hidden (Adaptive mode)
[b>🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL [/b>
[b>Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Understand ORB concepts and dashboard interpretation
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Display Mode: STANDARD
• ORB Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Enable ALL features (IB, extensions, failed breakouts, VWAP, gap analysis)
• Enable statistics tracking
[b>Actions: [/b>
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe ORB formation every day (9:30-10:00 AM ET for US markets)
• Note when ORB breakouts occur and if they extend
• Note when breakouts fail and reversals happen
• Watch day type classification evolve during session
• Track statistics—which setups are working?
[b>Key Learning: [/b>
• How often do breakouts reach 1.5x extension? (typically 50-60% of confirmed breakouts)
• How often do breakouts fail? (typically 30-40%)
• Which setup grade (A/B/C) actually performs best? (should see A-grade outperforming)
• What day type produces best results? (trend days favor breakouts, rotation days favor fades)
[b>Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
[b>ORB Timeframe Selection:
• Run 5 days with 15-minute ORB
• Run 5 days with 30-minute ORB
• Compare: Which captures better breakouts on your instrument?
• Typically: 30-minute optimal for most, 15-minute for very liquid (ES, SPY)
[b>Volume Confirmation Testing:
• Run 5 days WITH volume confirmation
• Run 5 days WITHOUT volume confirmation
• Compare: Does volume confirmation increase win rate?
• If win rate improves by >5%: Keep volume confirmation ON
• If no improvement: Turn OFF (avoid missing valid breakouts)
[b>Failed Breakout Bars:
[b>Goal: [/b> Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
[b>Setup Selection Rules: [/b>
Define which setups you'll trade:
• [b>Conservative: [/b> Only A+ and A grades
• [b>Balanced: [/b> A+, A, B+ grades
• [b>Aggressive: [/b> All grades B and above
Test each approach for 5-10 trades, compare results.
[b>Position Sizing by Grade: [/b>
Consider risk-weighting by setup quality:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B+ grade: 50% position size
• B grade: 25% position size
Example: If max risk is $1000/trade:
• A+ setup: Risk $1000
• A setup: Risk $750
• B+ setup: Risk $500
This matches bet sizing to edge.
[b>Day Type Adaptation: [/b>
Create rules for different day types:
Trend Days:
• Take ALL breakout signals (A/B/C grades)
• Hold for 2.0x extension minimum
• Trail stops aggressively (1.0 ATR trail)
• DON'T fade—reversals unlikely
Rotation Days:
• ONLY take failed breakout reversals
• Ignore initial breakout signals (likely to fail)
• Take profits quickly (0.5x extension)
• Focus on fade setups (Fade High/Fade Low)
Normal Days:
• Take A/A+ breakout signals only
• Take ALL failed breakout reversals (high probability)
• Target 1.0-1.5x extensions
• Partial profit-taking at extensions
Time-of-Day Rules: [/b>
Breakouts at different times have different probabilities:
10:00-10:30 AM (Early Breakout):
• ORB just completed
• Fresh breakout
• Probability: Moderate (50-55% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Conservative position sizing
10:30-12:00 PM (Mid-Morning):
• Momentum established
• Volume still healthy
• Probability: High (60-65% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Standard position sizing
12:00-2:00 PM (Lunch Doldrums):
• Volume dries up
• Whipsaw risk increases
• Probability: Low (40-45% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Avoid new entries OR reduce size 50%
2:00-4:00 PM (Afternoon Session):
• Late-day positioning
• EOD squeezes possible
• Probability: Moderate-High (55-60%)
• Strategy: Watch for IB break—if trending all day, follow
[b>Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
[b>Setup: [/b>
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ and A grade setups
• Follow stop loss and targets religiously
[b>Execution: [/b>
• Execute from alerts OR from dashboard setup box
• Entry: Close of signal bar OR next bar market order
• Stop: Use exact stop from setup (don't widen)
• Targets: Scale out at T1/T2/T3 as indicated
[b>Tracking: [/b>
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, Outcome, Day Type
• Calculate: Win rate, Average R-multiple, Max consecutive losses
• Compare to paper trading results (should be within 15%)
[b>Red Flags: [/b>
• Win rate <45%: System not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
• Major divergence from paper trading: Execution issues (slippage, late entries, emotional exits)
• Max consecutive losses >8: Hitting rough patch OR market regime changed
[b>Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
[b>Goal: [/b> Gradually increase to full position size
[b>Progression: [/b>
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
[b>Milestones Required to Scale Up: [/b>
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥48%
• Profit factor ≥1.2
• Max drawdown <20%
• Emotional control (no revenge trading, no FOMO)
[b>Advanced Techniques:
[b>Multi-Timeframe ORB: Assumes first 30-60 minutes establish value. Violation: Market opens after major news, price discovery continues for hours (opening range meaningless).
2. [b>Volume Indicates Conviction: ES, NQ, RTY, SPY, QQQ—high liquidity, clean ORB formation, reliable extensions
• [b>Large-Cap Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap, >5M daily volume)
• [b>Liquid Futures: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), 6E (EUR/USD), ZB (bonds)—24hr markets benefit from session ORBs
• [b>Major Forex Pairs: [/b> EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY—London/NY session ORBs work well
[b>Performs Poorly On: [/b>
• [b>Illiquid Stocks: <$1M daily volume, wide spreads, gappy price action
• [b>Penny Stocks: [/b> Manipulated, pump-and-dump, no real price discovery
• [b>Low-Volume ETFs: Exotic sector ETFs, leveraged products with thin volume
• [b>Crypto on Sketchy Exchanges: Wash trading, spoofing invalidates volume analysis
• [b>Earnings Days: [/b> ORB completes before earnings release, then completely resets (useless)
• Binary Event Days: FDA approvals, court rulings—discontinuous price action
[b>Known Weaknesses: [/b>
• [b>Slow Starts: ORB doesn't complete until 10:00 AM (30-min ORB). Early morning traders have no signals for 30 minutes. Consider using 15-minute ORB if this is problematic.
• [b>Failure Detection Lag: [/b> Failed breakout requires 3+ bars to confirm. By the time system signals reversal, price may have already moved significantly back inside range. Manual traders watching in real-time can enter earlier.
• [b>Extension Overshoot: [/b> System projects extensions mathematically (1.5x, 2.0x, etc.). Actual moves may stop short (1.3x) or overshoot (2.2x). Extensions are targets, not magnets.
• [b>Day Type Misclassification: [/b> Early in session, day type is "Developing." By the time it's classified definitively (often 11:00 AM+), half the day is over. Strategy adjustments happen late.
• [b>Gap Assumptions: [/b> System assumes gaps want to fill. Strong trend days never fill gaps (gap becomes support/resistance forever). Blindly trading toward gaps can backfire on trend days.
• [b>Volume Data Quality: Forex doesn't have centralized volume (uses tick volume as proxy—less reliable). Crypto volume is often fake (wash trading). Volume confirmation less effective on these instruments.
• [b>Multi-Session Complexity: [/b> When using Asian/London/NY ORBs simultaneously, chart becomes cluttered. Requires discipline to focus on relevant session for current time.
[b>Risk Factors: [/b>
• [b>Opening Gaps: Large gaps (>2%) can create distorted ORBs. Opening range might be unusually wide or narrow, making extensions unreliable.
• [b>Low Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX <12, opening ranges can be tiny (0.2-0.3%). Extensions are equally tiny. Profit targets don't justify commission/slippage.
• [b>High Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX >30, opening ranges are huge (2-3%+). Extensions project unrealistic targets. Failed breakouts happen faster (volatility whipsaw).
• [b>Algorithm Dominance:[/b> In heavily algorithmic markets (ES during overnight session), ORB levels can be manipulated—algos pin price to ORB high/low intentionally. Breakouts become stop-runs rather than genuine directional moves.
[b>⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE[/b>
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Opening Range Breakout strategies, while based on sound market structure principles, do not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
The ORB Fusion indicator implements professional trading concepts including Opening Range theory, Market Profile Initial Balance analysis, Fibonacci extensions, and failed breakout reversal logic. These methodologies have theoretical foundations but past performance—whether backtested or live—is not indicative of future results.
Opening Range theory assumes the first 30-60 minutes of trading establish a meaningful value area and that breakouts from this range signal directional conviction. This assumption may not hold during:
• Major news events (FOMC, NFP, earnings surprises)
• Market structure changes (circuit breakers, trading halts)
• Low liquidity periods (holidays, early closures)
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Failed breakout detection relies on patterns of trapped participant behavior. While historically these patterns have shown statistical edges, market conditions change. Institutional algorithms, changing market structure, or regime shifts can reduce or eliminate edges that existed historically.
Initial Balance classification (trend day vs rotation day vs normal day) is a heuristic framework, not a deterministic prediction. Day type can change mid-session. Early classification may prove incorrect as the day develops.
Extension projections (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, etc.) are probabilistic targets derived from Fibonacci ratios and empirical market behavior. They are not "support and resistance levels" that price must reach or respect. Markets can stop short of extensions, overshoot them, or ignore them entirely.
Volume confirmation assumes high volume indicates institutional participation and conviction. In algorithmic markets, volume can be artificially high (HFT activity) or artificially low (dark pools, internalization). Volume is a proxy, not a guarantee of conviction.
LTF precision sampling improves ORB accuracy by using 1-minute bars but introduces additional data dependencies. If 1-minute data is unavailable, inaccurate, or delayed, ORB calculations will be incorrect.
The grading system (A+/A/B+/B/C/D) and confidence scores aggregate multiple factors (volume, VWAP, day type, IB expansion, gap context) into a single assessment. This is a mechanical calculation, not artificial intelligence. The system cannot adapt to unprecedented market conditions or events outside its programmed logic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, and rejected orders not present in indicator calculations. ORB Fusion generates signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay. Opening range forms during highest volatility (first 30 minutes)—spreads widen, slippage increases. Execution quality significantly impacts realized results.
Statistics tracking (win rates, extension levels reached, day type distribution) is based on historical bars in your lookback window. If lookback is small (<50 bars) or market regime changed, statistics may not represent future probabilities.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively (100+ trades minimum) before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing (5-10% of intended size) for 50+ trades to validate execution quality matches expectations.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every single trade without exception. Understand that most retail traders lose money—sophisticated indicators do not change this fundamental reality. They systematize analysis but cannot eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any purpose. Users assume full responsibility for all trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
[b>CLOSING STATEMENT[/b>
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
Opening Range Breakout is not a trick. It's a framework. The first 30-60 minutes reveal where participants believe value lies. Breakouts signal directional conviction. Failures signal trapped participants. Extensions define profit targets. Day types dictate strategy. Failed breakouts create the highest-probability reversals.
ORB Fusion doesn't predict the future—it identifies [b>structure[/b>, detects [b>breakouts[/b>, recognizes [b>failures[/b>, and generates [b>probabilistic trade plans[/b> with defined risk and reward.
The edge is not in the opening range itself. The edge is in recognizing when the market respects structure (follow breakouts) versus when it violates structure (fade breakouts). The edge is in detecting failures faster than discretionary traders. The edge is in systematic classification that prevents catastrophic errors—like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
Most indicators draw lines. ORB Fusion implements a complete institutional trading methodology: Opening Range theory, Market Profile classification, failed breakout intelligence, Fibonacci projections, volume confirmation, gap psychology, and real-time performance tracking.
Whether you're a beginner learning market structure or a professional seeking systematic ORB implementation, this system provides the framework.
"The market's first word is its opening range. Everything after is commentary." — ORB Fusion
Tìm kiếm tập lệnh với "track"
Adaptive Genesis Engine [AGE]ADAPTIVE GENESIS ENGINE (AGE)
Pure Signal Evolution Through Genetic Algorithms
Where Darwin Meets Technical Analysis
🧬 WHAT YOU'RE GETTING - THE PURE INDICATOR
This is a technical analysis indicator - it generates signals, visualizes probability, and shows you the evolutionary process in real-time. This is NOT a strategy with automatic execution - it's a sophisticated signal generation system that you control .
What This Indicator Does:
Generates Long/Short entry signals with probability scores (35-88% range)
Evolves a population of up to 12 competing strategies using genetic algorithms
Validates strategies through walk-forward optimization (train/test cycles)
Visualizes signal quality through premium gradient clouds and confidence halos
Displays comprehensive metrics via enhanced dashboard
Provides alerts for entries and exits
Works on any timeframe, any instrument, any broker
What This Indicator Does NOT Do:
Execute trades automatically
Manage positions or calculate position sizes
Place orders on your behalf
Make trading decisions for you
This is pure signal intelligence. AGE tells you when and how confident it is. You decide whether and how much to trade.
🔬 THE SCIENCE: GENETIC ALGORITHMS MEET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
What Makes This Different - The Evolutionary Foundation
Most indicators are static - they use the same parameters forever, regardless of market conditions. AGE is alive . It maintains a population of competing strategies that evolve, adapt, and improve through natural selection principles:
Birth: New strategies spawn through crossover breeding (combining DNA from fit parents) plus random mutation for exploration
Life: Each strategy trades virtually via shadow portfolios, accumulating wins/losses, tracking drawdown, and building performance history
Selection: Strategies are ranked by comprehensive fitness scoring (win rate, expectancy, drawdown control, signal efficiency)
Death: Weak strategies are culled periodically, with elite performers (top 2 by default) protected from removal
Evolution: The gene pool continuously improves as successful traits propagate and unsuccessful ones die out
This is not curve-fitting. Each new strategy must prove itself on out-of-sample data through walk-forward validation before being trusted for live signals.
🧪 THE DNA: WHAT EVOLVES
Every strategy carries a 10-gene chromosome controlling how it interprets market data:
Signal Sensitivity Genes
Entropy Sensitivity (0.5-2.0): Weight given to market order/disorder calculations. Low values = conservative, require strong directional clarity. High values = aggressive, act on weaker order signals.
Momentum Sensitivity (0.5-2.0): Weight given to RSI/ROC/MACD composite. Controls responsiveness to momentum shifts vs. mean-reversion setups.
Structure Sensitivity (0.5-2.0): Weight given to support/resistance positioning. Determines how much price location within swing range matters.
Probability Adjustment Genes
Probability Boost (-0.10 to +0.10): Inherent bias toward aggressive (+) or conservative (-) entries. Acts as personality trait - some strategies naturally optimistic, others pessimistic.
Trend Strength Requirement (0.3-0.8): Minimum trend conviction needed before signaling. Higher values = only trades strong trends, lower values = acts in weak/sideways markets.
Volume Filter (0.5-1.5): Strictness of volume confirmation. Higher values = requires strong volume, lower values = volume less important.
Risk Management Genes
ATR Multiplier (1.5-4.0): Base volatility scaling for all price levels. Controls whether strategy uses tight or wide stops/targets relative to ATR.
Stop Multiplier (1.0-2.5): Stop loss tightness. Lower values = aggressive profit protection, higher values = more breathing room.
Target Multiplier (1.5-4.0): Profit target ambition. Lower values = quick scalping exits, higher values = swing trading holds.
Adaptation Gene
Regime Adaptation (0.0-1.0): How much strategy adjusts behavior based on detected market regime (trending/volatile/choppy). Higher values = more reactive to regime changes.
The Magic: AGE doesn't just try random combinations. Through tournament selection and fitness-weighted crossover, successful gene combinations spread through the population while unsuccessful ones fade away. Over 50-100 bars, you'll see the population converge toward genes that work for YOUR instrument and timeframe.
📊 THE SIGNAL ENGINE: THREE-LAYER SYNTHESIS
Before any strategy generates a signal, AGE calculates probability through multi-indicator confluence:
Layer 1 - Market Entropy (Information Theory)
Measures whether price movements exhibit directional order or random walk characteristics:
The Math:
Shannon Entropy = -Σ(p × log(p))
Market Order = 1 - (Entropy / 0.693)
What It Means:
High entropy = choppy, random market → low confidence signals
Low entropy = directional market → high confidence signals
Direction determined by up-move vs down-move dominance over lookback period (default: 20 bars)
Signal Output: -1.0 to +1.0 (bearish order to bullish order)
Layer 2 - Momentum Synthesis
Combines three momentum indicators into single composite score:
Components:
RSI (40% weight): Normalized to -1/+1 scale using (RSI-50)/50
Rate of Change (30% weight): Percentage change over lookback (default: 14 bars), clamped to ±1
MACD Histogram (30% weight): Fast(12) - Slow(26), normalized by ATR
Why This Matters: RSI catches mean-reversion opportunities, ROC catches raw momentum, MACD catches momentum divergence. Weighting favors RSI for reliability while keeping other perspectives.
Signal Output: -1.0 to +1.0 (strong bearish to strong bullish)
Layer 3 - Structure Analysis
Evaluates price position within swing range (default: 50-bar lookback):
Position Classification:
Bottom 20% of range = Support Zone → bullish bounce potential
Top 20% of range = Resistance Zone → bearish rejection potential
Middle 60% = Neutral Zone → breakout/breakdown monitoring
Signal Logic:
At support + bullish candle = +0.7 (strong buy setup)
At resistance + bearish candle = -0.7 (strong sell setup)
Breaking above range highs = +0.5 (breakout confirmation)
Breaking below range lows = -0.5 (breakdown confirmation)
Consolidation within range = ±0.3 (weak directional bias)
Signal Output: -1.0 to +1.0 (bearish structure to bullish structure)
Confluence Voting System
Each layer casts a vote (Long/Short/Neutral). The system requires minimum 2-of-3 agreement (configurable 1-3) before generating a signal:
Examples:
Entropy: Bullish, Momentum: Bullish, Structure: Neutral → Signal generated (2 long votes)
Entropy: Bearish, Momentum: Neutral, Structure: Neutral → No signal (only 1 short vote)
All three bullish → Signal generated with +5% probability bonus
This is the key to quality. Single indicators give too many false signals. Triple confirmation dramatically improves accuracy.
📈 PROBABILITY CALCULATION: HOW CONFIDENCE IS MEASURED
Base Probability:
Raw_Prob = 50% + (Average_Signal_Strength × 25%)
Then AGE applies strategic adjustments:
Trend Alignment:
Signal with trend: +4%
Signal against strong trend: -8%
Weak/no trend: no adjustment
Regime Adaptation:
Trending market (efficiency >50%, moderate vol): +3%
Volatile market (vol ratio >1.5x): -5%
Choppy market (low efficiency): -2%
Volume Confirmation:
Volume > 70% of 20-bar SMA: no change
Volume below threshold: -3%
Volatility State (DVS Ratio):
High vol (>1.8x baseline): -4% (reduce confidence in chaos)
Low vol (<0.7x baseline): -2% (markets can whipsaw in compression)
Moderate elevated vol (1.0-1.3x): +2% (trending conditions emerging)
Confluence Bonus:
All 3 indicators agree: +5%
2 of 3 agree: +2%
Strategy Gene Adjustment:
Probability Boost gene: -10% to +10%
Regime Adaptation gene: scales regime adjustments by 0-100%
Final Probability: Clamped between 35% (minimum) and 88% (maximum)
Why These Ranges?
Below 35% = too uncertain, better not to signal
Above 88% = unrealistic, creates overconfidence
Sweet spot: 65-80% for quality entries
🔄 THE SHADOW PORTFOLIO SYSTEM: HOW STRATEGIES COMPETE
Each active strategy maintains a virtual trading account that executes in parallel with real-time data:
Shadow Trading Mechanics
Entry Logic:
Calculate signal direction, probability, and confluence using strategy's unique DNA
Check if signal meets quality gate:
Probability ≥ configured minimum threshold (default: 65%)
Confluence ≥ configured minimum (default: 2 of 3)
Direction is not zero (must be long or short, not neutral)
Verify signal persistence:
Base requirement: 2 bars (configurable 1-5)
Adapts based on probability: high-prob signals (75%+) enter 1 bar faster, low-prob signals need 1 bar more
Adjusts for regime: trending markets reduce persistence by 1, volatile markets add 1
Apply additional filters:
Trend strength must exceed strategy's requirement gene
Regime filter: if volatile market detected, probability must be 72%+ to override
Volume confirmation required (volume > 70% of average)
If all conditions met for required persistence bars, enter shadow position at current close price
Position Management:
Entry Price: Recorded at close of entry bar
Stop Loss: ATR-based distance = ATR × ATR_Mult (gene) × Stop_Mult (gene) × DVS_Ratio
Take Profit: ATR-based distance = ATR × ATR_Mult (gene) × Target_Mult (gene) × DVS_Ratio
Position: +1 (long) or -1 (short), only one at a time per strategy
Exit Logic:
Check if price hit stop (on low) or target (on high) on current bar
Record trade outcome in R-multiples (profit/loss normalized by ATR)
Update performance metrics:
Total trades counter incremented
Wins counter (if profit > 0)
Cumulative P&L updated
Peak equity tracked (for drawdown calculation)
Maximum drawdown from peak recorded
Enter cooldown period (default: 8 bars, configurable 3-20) before next entry allowed
Reset signal age counter to zero
Walk-Forward Tracking:
During position lifecycle, trades are categorized:
Training Phase (first 250 bars): Trade counted toward training metrics
Testing Phase (next 75 bars): Trade counted toward testing metrics (out-of-sample)
Live Phase (after WFO period): Trade counted toward overall metrics
Why Shadow Portfolios?
No lookahead bias (uses only data available at the bar)
Realistic execution simulation (entry on close, stop/target checks on high/low)
Independent performance tracking for true fitness comparison
Allows safe experimentation without risking capital
Each strategy learns from its own experience
🏆 FITNESS SCORING: HOW STRATEGIES ARE RANKED
Fitness is not just win rate. AGE uses a comprehensive multi-factor scoring system:
Core Metrics (Minimum 3 trades required)
Win Rate (30% of fitness):
WinRate = Wins / TotalTrades
Normalized directly (0.0-1.0 scale)
Total P&L (30% of fitness):
Normalized_PnL = (PnL + 300) / 600
Clamped 0.0-1.0. Assumes P&L range of -300R to +300R for normalization scale.
Expectancy (25% of fitness):
Expectancy = Total_PnL / Total_Trades
Normalized_Expectancy = (Expectancy + 30) / 60
Clamped 0.0-1.0. Rewards consistency of profit per trade.
Drawdown Control (15% of fitness):
Normalized_DD = 1 - (Max_Drawdown / 15)
Clamped 0.0-1.0. Penalizes strategies that suffer large equity retracements from peak.
Sample Size Adjustment
Quality Factor:
<50 trades: 1.0 (full weight, small sample)
50-100 trades: 0.95 (slight penalty for medium sample)
100 trades: 0.85 (larger penalty for large sample)
Why penalize more trades? Prevents strategies from gaming the system by taking hundreds of tiny trades to inflate statistics. Favors quality over quantity.
Bonus Adjustments
Walk-Forward Validation Bonus:
if (WFO_Validated):
Fitness += (WFO_Efficiency - 0.5) × 0.1
Strategies proven on out-of-sample data receive up to +10% fitness boost based on test/train efficiency ratio.
Signal Efficiency Bonus (if diagnostics enabled):
if (Signals_Evaluated > 10):
Pass_Rate = Signals_Passed / Signals_Evaluated
Fitness += (Pass_Rate - 0.1) × 0.05
Rewards strategies that generate high-quality signals passing the quality gate, not just profitable trades.
Final Fitness: Clamped at 0.0 minimum (prevents negative fitness values)
Result: Elite strategies typically achieve 0.50-0.75 fitness. Anything above 0.60 is excellent. Below 0.30 is prime candidate for culling.
🔬 WALK-FORWARD OPTIMIZATION: ANTI-OVERFITTING PROTECTION
This is what separates AGE from curve-fitted garbage indicators.
The Three-Phase Process
Every new strategy undergoes a rigorous validation lifecycle:
Phase 1 - Training Window (First 250 bars, configurable 100-500):
Strategy trades normally via shadow portfolio
All trades count toward training performance metrics
System learns which gene combinations produce profitable patterns
Tracks independently: Training_Trades, Training_Wins, Training_PnL
Phase 2 - Testing Window (Next 75 bars, configurable 30-200):
Strategy continues trading without any parameter changes
Trades now count toward testing performance metrics (separate tracking)
This is out-of-sample data - strategy has never seen these bars during "optimization"
Tracks independently: Testing_Trades, Testing_Wins, Testing_PnL
Phase 3 - Validation Check:
Minimum_Trades = 5 (configurable 3-15)
IF (Train_Trades >= Minimum AND Test_Trades >= Minimum):
WR_Efficiency = Test_WinRate / Train_WinRate
Expectancy_Efficiency = Test_Expectancy / Train_Expectancy
WFO_Efficiency = (WR_Efficiency + Expectancy_Efficiency) / 2
IF (WFO_Efficiency >= 0.55): // configurable 0.3-0.9
Strategy.Validated = TRUE
Strategy receives fitness bonus
ELSE:
Strategy receives 30% fitness penalty
ELSE:
Validation deferred (insufficient trades in one or both periods)
What Validation Means
Validated Strategy (Green "✓ VAL" in dashboard):
Performed at least 55% as well on unseen data compared to training data
Gets fitness bonus: +(efficiency - 0.5) × 0.1
Receives priority during tournament selection for breeding
More likely to be chosen as active trading strategy
Unvalidated Strategy (Orange "○ TRAIN" in dashboard):
Failed to maintain performance on test data (likely curve-fitted to training period)
Receives 30% fitness penalty (0.7x multiplier)
Makes strategy prime candidate for culling
Can still trade but with lower selection probability
Insufficient Data (continues collecting):
Hasn't completed both training and testing periods yet
OR hasn't achieved minimum trade count in both periods
Validation check deferred until requirements met
Why 55% Efficiency Threshold?
If a strategy earned 10R during training but only 5.5R during testing, it still proved an edge exists beyond random luck. Requiring 100% efficiency would be unrealistic - market conditions change between periods. But requiring >50% ensures the strategy didn't completely degrade on fresh data.
The Protection: Strategies that work great on historical data but fail on new data are automatically identified and penalized. This prevents the population from being polluted by overfitted strategies that would fail in live trading.
🌊 DYNAMIC VOLATILITY SCALING (DVS): ADAPTIVE STOP/TARGET PLACEMENT
AGE doesn't use fixed stop distances. It adapts to current volatility conditions in real-time.
Four Volatility Measurement Methods
1. ATR Ratio (Simple Method):
Current_Vol = ATR(14) / Close
Baseline_Vol = SMA(Current_Vol, 100)
Ratio = Current_Vol / Baseline_Vol
Basic comparison of current ATR to 100-bar moving average baseline.
2. Parkinson (High-Low Range Based):
For each bar: HL = log(High / Low)
Parkinson_Vol = sqrt(Σ(HL²) / (4 × Period × log(2)))
More stable than close-to-close volatility. Captures intraday range expansion without overnight gap noise.
3. Garman-Klass (OHLC Based):
HL_Term = 0.5 × ²
CO_Term = (2×log(2) - 1) × ²
GK_Vol = sqrt(Σ(HL_Term - CO_Term) / Period)
Most sophisticated estimator. Incorporates all four price points (open, high, low, close) plus gap information.
4. Ensemble Method (Default - Median of All Three):
Ratio_1 = ATR_Current / ATR_Baseline
Ratio_2 = Parkinson_Current / Parkinson_Baseline
Ratio_3 = GK_Current / GK_Baseline
DVS_Ratio = Median(Ratio_1, Ratio_2, Ratio_3)
Why Ensemble?
Takes median to avoid outliers and false spikes
If ATR jumps but range-based methods stay calm, median prevents overreaction
If one method fails, other two compensate
Most robust approach across different market conditions
Sensitivity Scaling
Scaled_Ratio = (Raw_Ratio) ^ Sensitivity
Sensitivity 0.3: Cube root - heavily dampens volatility impact
Sensitivity 0.5: Square root - moderate dampening
Sensitivity 0.7 (Default): Balanced response to volatility changes
Sensitivity 1.0: Linear - full 1:1 volatility impact
Sensitivity 1.5: Exponential - amplified response to volatility spikes
Safety Clamps: Final DVS Ratio always clamped between 0.5x and 2.5x baseline to prevent extreme position sizing or stop placement errors.
How DVS Affects Shadow Trading
Every strategy's stop and target distances are multiplied by the current DVS ratio:
Stop Loss Distance:
Stop_Distance = ATR × ATR_Mult (gene) × Stop_Mult (gene) × DVS_Ratio
Take Profit Distance:
Target_Distance = ATR × ATR_Mult (gene) × Target_Mult (gene) × DVS_Ratio
Example Scenario:
ATR = 10 points
Strategy's ATR_Mult gene = 2.5
Strategy's Stop_Mult gene = 1.5
Strategy's Target_Mult gene = 2.5
DVS_Ratio = 1.4 (40% above baseline volatility - market heating up)
Stop = 10 × 2.5 × 1.5 × 1.4 = 52.5 points (vs. 37.5 in normal vol)
Target = 10 × 2.5 × 2.5 × 1.4 = 87.5 points (vs. 62.5 in normal vol)
Result:
During volatility spikes: Stops automatically widen to avoid noise-based exits, targets extend for bigger moves
During calm periods: Stops tighten for better risk/reward, targets compress for realistic profit-taking
Strategies adapt risk management to match current market behavior
🧬 THE EVOLUTIONARY CYCLE: SPAWN, COMPETE, CULL
Initialization (Bar 1)
AGE begins with 4 seed strategies (if evolution enabled):
Seed Strategy #0 (Balanced):
All sensitivities at 1.0 (neutral)
Zero probability boost
Moderate trend requirement (0.4)
Standard ATR/stop/target multiples (2.5/1.5/2.5)
Mid-level regime adaptation (0.5)
Seed Strategy #1 (Momentum-Focused):
Lower entropy sensitivity (0.7), higher momentum (1.5)
Slight probability boost (+0.03)
Higher trend requirement (0.5)
Tighter stops (1.3), wider targets (3.0)
Seed Strategy #2 (Entropy-Driven):
Higher entropy sensitivity (1.5), lower momentum (0.8)
Slight probability penalty (-0.02)
More trend tolerant (0.6)
Wider stops (1.8), standard targets (2.5)
Seed Strategy #3 (Structure-Based):
Balanced entropy/momentum (0.8/0.9), high structure (1.4)
Slight probability boost (+0.02)
Lower trend requirement (0.35)
Moderate risk parameters (1.6/2.8)
All seeds start with WFO validation bypassed if WFO is disabled, or must validate if enabled.
Spawning New Strategies
Timing (Adaptive):
Historical phase: Every 30 bars (configurable 10-100)
Live phase: Every 200 bars (configurable 100-500)
Automatically switches to live timing when barstate.isrealtime triggers
Conditions:
Current population < max population limit (default: 8, configurable 4-12)
At least 2 active strategies exist (need parents)
Available slot in population array
Selection Process:
Run tournament selection 3 times with different seeds
Each tournament: randomly sample active strategies, pick highest fitness
Best from 3 tournaments becomes Parent 1
Repeat independently for Parent 2
Ensures fit parents but maintains diversity
Crossover Breeding:
For each of 10 genes:
Parent1_Fitness = fitness
Parent2_Fitness = fitness
Weight1 = Parent1_Fitness / (Parent1_Fitness + Parent2_Fitness)
Gene1 = parent1's value
Gene2 = parent2's value
Child_Gene = Weight1 × Gene1 + (1 - Weight1) × Gene2
Fitness-weighted crossover ensures fitter parent contributes more genetic material.
Mutation:
For each gene in child:
IF (random < mutation_rate):
Gene_Range = GENE_MAX - GENE_MIN
Noise = (random - 0.5) × 2 × mutation_strength × Gene_Range
Mutated_Gene = Clamp(Child_Gene + Noise, GENE_MIN, GENE_MAX)
Historical mutation rate: 20% (aggressive exploration)
Live mutation rate: 8% (conservative stability)
Mutation strength: 12% of gene range (configurable 5-25%)
Initialization of New Strategy:
Unique ID assigned (total_spawned counter)
Parent ID recorded
Generation = max(parent generations) + 1
Birth bar recorded (for age tracking)
All performance metrics zeroed
Shadow portfolio reset
WFO validation flag set to false (must prove itself)
Result: New strategy with hybrid DNA enters population, begins trading in next bar.
Competition (Every Bar)
All active strategies:
Calculate their signal based on unique DNA
Check quality gate with their thresholds
Manage shadow positions (entries/exits)
Update performance metrics
Recalculate fitness score
Track WFO validation progress
Strategies compete indirectly through fitness ranking - no direct interaction.
Culling Weak Strategies
Timing (Adaptive):
Historical phase: Every 60 bars (configurable 20-200, should be 2x spawn interval)
Live phase: Every 400 bars (configurable 200-1000, should be 2x spawn interval)
Minimum Adaptation Score (MAS):
Initial MAS = 0.10
MAS decays: MAS × 0.995 every cull cycle
Minimum MAS = 0.03 (floor)
MAS represents the "survival threshold" - strategies below this fitness level are vulnerable.
Culling Conditions (ALL must be true):
Population > minimum population (default: 3, configurable 2-4)
At least one strategy has fitness < MAS
Strategy's age > culling interval (prevents premature culling of new strategies)
Strategy is not in top N elite (default: 2, configurable 1-3)
Culling Process:
Find worst strategy:
For each active strategy:
IF (age > cull_interval):
Fitness = base_fitness
IF (not WFO_validated AND WFO_enabled):
Fitness × 0.7 // 30% penalty for unvalidated
IF (Fitness < MAS AND Fitness < worst_fitness_found):
worst_strategy = this_strategy
worst_fitness = Fitness
IF (worst_strategy found):
Count elite strategies with fitness > worst_fitness
IF (elite_count >= elite_preservation_count):
Deactivate worst_strategy (set active flag = false)
Increment total_culled counter
Elite Protection:
Even if a strategy's fitness falls below MAS, it survives if fewer than N strategies are better. This prevents culling when population is generally weak.
Result: Weak strategies removed from population, freeing slots for new spawns. Gene pool improves over time.
Selection for Display (Every Bar)
AGE chooses one strategy to display signals:
Best fitness = -1
Selected = none
For each active strategy:
Fitness = base_fitness
IF (WFO_validated):
Fitness × 1.3 // 30% bonus for validated strategies
IF (Fitness > best_fitness):
best_fitness = Fitness
selected_strategy = this_strategy
Display selected strategy's signals on chart
Result: Only the highest-fitness (optionally validated-boosted) strategy's signals appear as chart markers. Other strategies trade invisibly in shadow portfolios.
🎨 PREMIUM VISUALIZATION SYSTEM
AGE includes sophisticated visual feedback that standard indicators lack:
1. Gradient Probability Cloud (Optional, Default: ON)
Multi-layer gradient showing signal buildup 2-3 bars before entry:
Activation Conditions:
Signal persistence > 0 (same directional signal held for multiple bars)
Signal probability ≥ minimum threshold (65% by default)
Signal hasn't yet executed (still in "forming" state)
Visual Construction:
7 gradient layers by default (configurable 3-15)
Each layer is a line-fill pair (top line, bottom line, filled between)
Layer spacing: 0.3 to 1.0 × ATR above/below price
Outer layers = faint, inner layers = bright
Color transitions from base to intense based on layer position
Transparency scales with probability (high prob = more opaque)
Color Selection:
Long signals: Gradient from theme.gradient_bull_mid to theme.gradient_bull_strong
Short signals: Gradient from theme.gradient_bear_mid to theme.gradient_bear_strong
Base transparency: 92%, reduces by up to 8% for high-probability setups
Dynamic Behavior:
Cloud grows/shrinks as signal persistence increases/decreases
Redraws every bar while signal is forming
Disappears when signal executes or invalidates
Performance Note: Computationally expensive due to linefill objects. Disable or reduce layers if chart performance degrades.
2. Population Fitness Ribbon (Optional, Default: ON)
Histogram showing fitness distribution across active strategies:
Activation: Only draws on last bar (barstate.islast) to avoid historical clutter
Visual Construction:
10 histogram layers by default (configurable 5-20)
Plots 50 bars back from current bar
Positioned below price at: lowest_low(100) - 1.5×ATR (doesn't interfere with price action)
Each layer represents a fitness threshold (evenly spaced min to max fitness)
Layer Logic:
For layer_num from 0 to ribbon_layers:
Fitness_threshold = min_fitness + (max_fitness - min_fitness) × (layer / layers)
Count strategies with fitness ≥ threshold
Height = ATR × 0.15 × (count / total_active)
Y_position = base_level + ATR × 0.2 × layer
Color = Gradient from weak to strong based on layer position
Line_width = Scaled by height (taller = thicker)
Visual Feedback:
Tall, bright ribbon = healthy population, many fit strategies at high fitness levels
Short, dim ribbon = weak population, few strategies achieving good fitness
Ribbon compression (layers close together) = population converging to similar fitness
Ribbon spread = diverse fitness range, active selection pressure
Use Case: Quick visual health check without opening dashboard. Ribbon growing upward over time = population improving.
3. Confidence Halo (Optional, Default: ON)
Circular polyline around entry signals showing probability strength:
Activation: Draws when new position opens (shadow_position changes from 0 to ±1)
Visual Construction:
20-segment polyline forming approximate circle
Center: Low - 0.5×ATR (long) or High + 0.5×ATR (short)
Radius: 0.3×ATR (low confidence) to 1.0×ATR (elite confidence)
Scales with: (probability - min_probability) / (1.0 - min_probability)
Color Coding:
Elite (85%+): Cyan (theme.conf_elite), large radius, minimal transparency (40%)
Strong (75-85%): Strong green (theme.conf_strong), medium radius, moderate transparency (50%)
Good (65-75%): Good green (theme.conf_good), smaller radius, more transparent (60%)
Moderate (<65%): Moderate green (theme.conf_moderate), tiny radius, very transparent (70%)
Technical Detail:
Uses chart.point array with index-based positioning
5-bar horizontal spread for circular appearance (±5 bars from entry)
Curved=false (Pine Script polyline limitation)
Fill color matches line color but more transparent (88% vs line's transparency)
Purpose: Instant visual probability assessment. No need to check dashboard - halo size/brightness tells the story.
4. Evolution Event Markers (Optional, Default: ON)
Visual indicators of genetic algorithm activity:
Spawn Markers (Diamond, Cyan):
Plots when total_spawned increases on current bar
Location: bottom of chart (location.bottom)
Color: theme.spawn_marker (cyan/bright blue)
Size: tiny
Indicates new strategy just entered population
Cull Markers (X-Cross, Red):
Plots when total_culled increases on current bar
Location: bottom of chart (location.bottom)
Color: theme.cull_marker (red/pink)
Size: tiny
Indicates weak strategy just removed from population
What It Tells You:
Frequent spawning early = population building, active exploration
Frequent culling early = high selection pressure, weak strategies dying fast
Balanced spawn/cull = healthy evolutionary churn
No markers for long periods = stable population (evolution plateaued or optimal genes found)
5. Entry/Exit Markers
Clear visual signals for selected strategy's trades:
Long Entry (Triangle Up, Green):
Plots when selected strategy opens long position (position changes 0 → +1)
Location: below bar (location.belowbar)
Color: theme.long_primary (green/cyan depending on theme)
Transparency: Scales with probability:
Elite (85%+): 0% (fully opaque)
Strong (75-85%): 10%
Good (65-75%): 20%
Acceptable (55-65%): 35%
Size: small
Short Entry (Triangle Down, Red):
Plots when selected strategy opens short position (position changes 0 → -1)
Location: above bar (location.abovebar)
Color: theme.short_primary (red/pink depending on theme)
Transparency: Same scaling as long entries
Size: small
Exit (X-Cross, Orange):
Plots when selected strategy closes position (position changes ±1 → 0)
Location: absolute (at actual exit price if stop/target lines enabled)
Color: theme.exit_color (orange/yellow depending on theme)
Transparency: 0% (fully opaque)
Size: tiny
Result: Clean, probability-scaled markers that don't clutter chart but convey essential information.
6. Stop Loss & Take Profit Lines (Optional, Default: ON)
Visual representation of shadow portfolio risk levels:
Stop Loss Line:
Plots when selected strategy has active position
Level: shadow_stop value from selected strategy
Color: theme.short_primary with 60% transparency (red/pink, subtle)
Width: 2
Style: plot.style_linebr (breaks when no position)
Take Profit Line:
Plots when selected strategy has active position
Level: shadow_target value from selected strategy
Color: theme.long_primary with 60% transparency (green, subtle)
Width: 2
Style: plot.style_linebr (breaks when no position)
Purpose:
Shows where shadow portfolio would exit for stop/target
Helps visualize strategy's risk/reward ratio
Useful for manual traders to set similar levels
Disable for cleaner chart (recommended for presentations)
7. Dynamic Trend EMA
Gradient-colored trend line that visualizes trend strength:
Calculation:
EMA(close, trend_length) - default 50 period (configurable 20-100)
Slope calculated over 10 bars: (current_ema - ema ) / ema × 100
Color Logic:
Trend_direction:
Slope > 0.1% = Bullish (1)
Slope < -0.1% = Bearish (-1)
Otherwise = Neutral (0)
Trend_strength = abs(slope)
Color = Gradient between:
- Neutral color (gray/purple)
- Strong bullish (bright green) if direction = 1
- Strong bearish (bright red) if direction = -1
Gradient factor = trend_strength (0 to 1+ scale)
Visual Behavior:
Faint gray/purple = weak/no trend (choppy conditions)
Light green/red = emerging trend (low strength)
Bright green/red = strong trend (high conviction)
Color intensity = trend strength magnitude
Transparency: 50% (subtle, doesn't overpower price action)
Purpose: Subconscious awareness of trend state without checking dashboard or indicators.
8. Regime Background Tinting (Subtle)
Ultra-low opacity background color indicating detected market regime:
Regime Detection:
Efficiency = directional_movement / total_range (over trend_length bars)
Vol_ratio = current_volatility / average_volatility
IF (efficiency > 0.5 AND vol_ratio < 1.3):
Regime = Trending (1)
ELSE IF (vol_ratio > 1.5):
Regime = Volatile (2)
ELSE:
Regime = Choppy (0)
Background Colors:
Trending: theme.regime_trending (dark green, 92-93% transparency)
Volatile: theme.regime_volatile (dark red, 93% transparency)
Choppy: No tint (normal background)
Purpose:
Subliminal regime awareness
Helps explain why signals are/aren't generating
Trending = ideal conditions for AGE
Volatile = fewer signals, higher thresholds applied
Choppy = mixed signals, lower confidence
Important: Extremely subtle by design. Not meant to be obvious, just subconscious context.
📊 ENHANCED DASHBOARD
Comprehensive real-time metrics in single organized panel (top-right position):
Dashboard Structure (5 columns × 14 rows)
Header Row:
Column 0: "🧬 AGE PRO" + phase indicator (🔴 LIVE or ⏪ HIST)
Column 1: "POPULATION"
Column 2: "PERFORMANCE"
Column 3: "CURRENT SIGNAL"
Column 4: "ACTIVE STRATEGY"
Column 0: Market State
Regime (📈 TREND / 🌊 CHAOS / ➖ CHOP)
DVS Ratio (current volatility scaling factor, format: #.##)
Trend Direction (▲ BULL / ▼ BEAR / ➖ FLAT with color coding)
Trend Strength (0-100 scale, format: #.##)
Column 1: Population Metrics
Active strategies (count / max_population)
Validated strategies (WFO passed / active total)
Current generation number
Total spawned (all-time strategy births)
Total culled (all-time strategy deaths)
Column 2: Aggregate Performance
Total trades across all active strategies
Aggregate win rate (%) - color-coded:
Green (>55%)
Orange (45-55%)
Red (<45%)
Total P&L in R-multiples - color-coded by positive/negative
Best fitness score in population (format: #.###)
MAS - Minimum Adaptation Score (cull threshold, format: #.###)
Column 3: Current Signal Status
Status indicator:
"▲ LONG" (green) if selected strategy in long position
"▼ SHORT" (red) if selected strategy in short position
"⏳ FORMING" (orange) if signal persisting but not yet executed
"○ WAITING" (gray) if no active signal
Confidence percentage (0-100%, format: #.#%)
Quality assessment:
"🔥 ELITE" (cyan) for 85%+ probability
"✓ STRONG" (bright green) for 75-85%
"○ GOOD" (green) for 65-75%
"- LOW" (dim) for <65%
Confluence score (X/3 format)
Signal age:
"X bars" if signal forming
"IN TRADE" if position active
"---" if no signal
Column 4: Selected Strategy Details
Strategy ID number (#X format)
Validation status:
"✓ VAL" (green) if WFO validated
"○ TRAIN" (orange) if still in training/testing phase
Generation number (GX format)
Personal fitness score (format: #.### with color coding)
Trade count
P&L and win rate (format: #.#R (##%) with color coding)
Color Scheme:
Panel background: theme.panel_bg (dark, low opacity)
Panel headers: theme.panel_header (slightly lighter)
Primary text: theme.text_primary (bright, high contrast)
Secondary text: theme.text_secondary (dim, lower contrast)
Positive metrics: theme.metric_positive (green)
Warning metrics: theme.metric_warning (orange)
Negative metrics: theme.metric_negative (red)
Special markers: theme.validated_marker, theme.spawn_marker
Update Frequency: Only on barstate.islast (current bar) to minimize CPU usage
Purpose:
Quick overview of entire system state
No need to check multiple indicators
Trading decisions informed by population health, regime state, and signal quality
Transparency into what AGE is thinking
🔍 DIAGNOSTICS PANEL (Optional, Default: OFF)
Detailed signal quality tracking for optimization and debugging:
Panel Structure (3 columns × 8 rows)
Position: Bottom-right corner (doesn't interfere with main dashboard)
Header Row:
Column 0: "🔍 DIAGNOSTICS"
Column 1: "COUNT"
Column 2: "%"
Metrics Tracked (for selected strategy only):
Total Evaluated:
Every signal that passed initial calculation (direction ≠ 0)
Represents total opportunities considered
✓ Passed:
Signals that passed quality gate and executed
Green color coding
Percentage of evaluated signals
Rejection Breakdown:
⨯ Probability:
Rejected because probability < minimum threshold
Most common rejection reason typically
⨯ Confluence:
Rejected because confluence < minimum required (e.g., only 1 of 3 indicators agreed)
⨯ Trend:
Rejected because signal opposed strong trend
Indicates counter-trend protection working
⨯ Regime:
Rejected because volatile regime detected and probability wasn't high enough to override
Shows regime filter in action
⨯ Volume:
Rejected because volume < 70% of 20-bar average
Indicates volume confirmation requirement
Color Coding:
Passed count: Green (success metric)
Rejection counts: Red (failure metrics)
Percentages: Gray (neutral, informational)
Performance Cost: Slight CPU overhead for tracking counters. Disable when not actively optimizing settings.
How to Use Diagnostics
Scenario 1: Too Few Signals
Evaluated: 200
Passed: 10 (5%)
⨯ Probability: 120 (60%)
⨯ Confluence: 40 (20%)
⨯ Others: 30 (15%)
Diagnosis: Probability threshold too high for this strategy's DNA.
Solution: Lower min probability from 65% to 60%, or allow strategy more time to evolve better DNA.
Scenario 2: Too Many False Signals
Evaluated: 200
Passed: 80 (40%)
Strategy win rate: 45%
Diagnosis: Quality gate too loose, letting low-quality signals through.
Solution: Raise min probability to 70%, or increase min confluence to 3 (all indicators must agree).
Scenario 3: Regime-Specific Issues
⨯ Regime: 90 (45% of rejections)
Diagnosis: Frequent volatile regime detection blocking otherwise good signals.
Solution: Either accept fewer trades during chaos (recommended), or disable regime filter if you want signals regardless of market state.
Optimization Workflow:
Enable diagnostics
Run 200+ bars
Analyze rejection patterns
Adjust settings based on data
Re-run and compare pass rate
Disable diagnostics when satisfied
⚙️ CONFIGURATION GUIDE
🧬 Evolution Engine Settings
Enable AGE Evolution (Default: ON):
ON: Full genetic algorithm (recommended for best results)
OFF: Uses only 4 seed strategies, no spawning/culling (static population for comparison testing)
Max Population (4-12, Default: 8):
Higher = more diversity, more exploration, slower performance
Lower = faster computation, less exploration, risk of premature convergence
Sweet spot: 6-8 for most use cases
4 = minimum for meaningful evolution
12 = maximum before diminishing returns
Min Population (2-4, Default: 3):
Safety floor - system never culls below this count
Prevents population extinction during harsh selection
Should be at least half of max population
Elite Preservation (1-3, Default: 2):
Top N performers completely immune to culling
Ensures best genes always survive
1 = minimal protection, aggressive selection
2 = balanced (recommended)
3 = conservative, slower gene pool turnover
Historical: Spawn Interval (10-100, Default: 30):
Bars between spawning new strategies during historical data
Lower = faster evolution, more exploration
Higher = slower evolution, more evaluation time per strategy
30 bars = ~1-2 hours on 15min chart
Historical: Cull Interval (20-200, Default: 60):
Bars between culling weak strategies during historical data
Should be 2x spawn interval for balanced churn
Lower = aggressive selection pressure
Higher = patient evaluation
Live: Spawn Interval (100-500, Default: 200):
Bars between spawning during live trading
Much slower than historical for stability
Prevents population chaos during live trading
200 bars = ~1.5 trading days on 15min chart
Live: Cull Interval (200-1000, Default: 400):
Bars between culling during live trading
Should be 2x live spawn interval
Conservative removal during live trading
Historical: Mutation Rate (0.05-0.40, Default: 0.20):
Probability each gene mutates during breeding (20% = 2 out of 10 genes on average)
Higher = more exploration, slower convergence
Lower = more exploitation, faster convergence but risk of local optima
20% balances exploration vs exploitation
Live: Mutation Rate (0.02-0.20, Default: 0.08):
Mutation rate during live trading
Much lower for stability (don't want population to suddenly degrade)
8% = mostly inherits parent genes with small tweaks
Mutation Strength (0.05-0.25, Default: 0.12):
How much genes change when mutated (% of gene's total range)
0.05 = tiny nudges (fine-tuning)
0.12 = moderate jumps (recommended)
0.25 = large leaps (aggressive exploration)
Example: If gene range is 0.5-2.0, 12% strength = ±0.18 possible change
📈 Signal Quality Settings
Min Signal Probability (0.55-0.80, Default: 0.65):
Quality gate threshold - signals below this never generate
0.55-0.60 = More signals, accept lower confidence (higher risk)
0.65 = Institutional-grade balance (recommended)
0.70-0.75 = Fewer but higher-quality signals (conservative)
0.80+ = Very selective, very few signals (ultra-conservative)
Min Confluence Score (1-3, Default: 2):
Required indicator agreement before signal generates
1 = Any single indicator can trigger (not recommended - too many false signals)
2 = Requires 2 of 3 indicators agree (RECOMMENDED for balance)
3 = All 3 must agree (very selective, few signals, high quality)
Base Persistence Bars (1-5, Default: 2):
Base bars signal must persist before entry
System adapts automatically:
High probability signals (75%+) enter 1 bar faster
Low probability signals (<68%) need 1 bar more
Trending regime: -1 bar (faster entries)
Volatile regime: +1 bar (more confirmation)
1 = Immediate entry after quality gate (responsive but prone to whipsaw)
2 = Balanced confirmation (recommended)
3-5 = Patient confirmation (slower but more reliable)
Cooldown After Trade (3-20, Default: 8):
Bars to wait after exit before next entry allowed
Prevents overtrading and revenge trading
3 = Minimal cooldown (active trading)
8 = Balanced (recommended)
15-20 = Conservative (position trading)
Entropy Length (10-50, Default: 20):
Lookback period for market order/disorder calculation
Lower = more responsive to regime changes (noisy)
Higher = more stable regime detection (laggy)
20 = works across most timeframes
Momentum Length (5-30, Default: 14):
Period for RSI/ROC calculations
14 = standard (RSI default)
Lower = more signals, less reliable
Higher = fewer signals, more reliable
Structure Length (20-100, Default: 50):
Lookback for support/resistance swing range
20 = short-term swings (day trading)
50 = medium-term structure (recommended)
100 = major structure (position trading)
Trend EMA Length (20-100, Default: 50):
EMA period for trend detection and direction bias
20 = short-term trend (responsive)
50 = medium-term trend (recommended)
100 = long-term trend (position trading)
ATR Period (5-30, Default: 14):
Period for volatility measurement
14 = standard ATR
Lower = more responsive to vol changes
Higher = smoother vol calculation
📊 Volatility Scaling (DVS) Settings
Enable DVS (Default: ON):
Dynamic volatility scaling for adaptive stop/target placement
Highly recommended to leave ON
OFF only for testing fixed-distance stops
DVS Method (Default: Ensemble):
ATR Ratio: Simple, fast, single-method (good for beginners)
Parkinson: High-low range based (good for intraday)
Garman-Klass: OHLC based (sophisticated, considers gaps)
Ensemble: Median of all three (RECOMMENDED - most robust)
DVS Memory (20-200, Default: 100):
Lookback for baseline volatility comparison
20 = very responsive to vol changes (can overreact)
100 = balanced adaptation (recommended)
200 = slow, stable baseline (minimizes false vol signals)
DVS Sensitivity (0.3-1.5, Default: 0.7):
How much volatility affects scaling (power-law exponent)
0.3 = Conservative, heavily dampens vol impact (cube root)
0.5 = Moderate dampening (square root)
0.7 = Balanced response (recommended)
1.0 = Linear, full 1:1 vol response
1.5 = Aggressive, amplified response (exponential)
🔬 Walk-Forward Optimization Settings
Enable WFO (Default: ON):
Out-of-sample validation to prevent overfitting
Highly recommended to leave ON
OFF only for testing or if you want unvalidated strategies
Training Window (100-500, Default: 250):
Bars for in-sample optimization
100 = fast validation, less data (risky)
250 = balanced (recommended) - about 1-2 months on daily, 1-2 weeks on 15min
500 = patient validation, more data (conservative)
Testing Window (30-200, Default: 75):
Bars for out-of-sample validation
Should be ~30% of training window
30 = minimal test (fast validation)
75 = balanced (recommended)
200 = extensive test (very conservative)
Min Trades for Validation (3-15, Default: 5):
Required trades in BOTH training AND testing periods
3 = minimal sample (risky, fast validation)
5 = balanced (recommended)
10+ = conservative (slow validation, high confidence)
WFO Efficiency Threshold (0.3-0.9, Default: 0.55):
Minimum test/train performance ratio required
0.30 = Very loose (test must be 30% as good as training)
0.55 = Balanced (recommended) - test must be 55% as good
0.70+ = Strict (test must closely match training)
Higher = fewer validated strategies, lower risk of overfitting
🎨 Premium Visuals Settings
Visual Theme:
Neon Genesis: Cyberpunk aesthetic (cyan/magenta/purple)
Carbon Fiber: Industrial look (blue/red/gray)
Quantum Blue: Quantum computing (blue/purple/pink)
Aurora: Northern lights (teal/orange/purple)
⚡ Gradient Probability Cloud (Default: ON):
Multi-layer gradient showing signal buildup
Turn OFF if chart lags or for cleaner look
Cloud Gradient Layers (3-15, Default: 7):
More layers = smoother gradient, more CPU intensive
Fewer layers = faster, blockier appearance
🎗️ Population Fitness Ribbon (Default: ON):
Histogram showing fitness distribution
Turn OFF for cleaner chart
Ribbon Layers (5-20, Default: 10):
More layers = finer fitness detail
Fewer layers = simpler histogram
⭕ Signal Confidence Halo (Default: ON):
Circular indicator around entry signals
Size/brightness scales with probability
Minimal performance cost
🔬 Evolution Event Markers (Default: ON):
Diamond (spawn) and X (cull) markers
Shows genetic algorithm activity
Minimal performance cost
🎯 Stop/Target Lines (Default: ON):
Shows shadow portfolio stop/target levels
Turn OFF for cleaner chart (recommended for screenshots/presentations)
📊 Enhanced Dashboard (Default: ON):
Comprehensive metrics panel
Should stay ON unless you want zero overlays
🔍 Diagnostics Panel (Default: OFF):
Detailed signal rejection tracking
Turn ON when optimizing settings
Turn OFF during normal use (slight performance cost)
📈 USAGE WORKFLOW - HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR
Phase 1: Initial Setup & Learning
Add AGE to your chart
Recommended timeframes: 15min, 30min, 1H (best signal-to-noise ratio)
Works on: 5min (day trading), 4H (swing trading), Daily (position trading)
Load 1000+ bars for sufficient evolution history
Let the population evolve (100+ bars minimum)
First 50 bars: Random exploration, poor results expected
Bars 50-150: Population converging, fitness improving
Bars 150+: Stable performance, validated strategies emerging
Watch the dashboard metrics
Population should grow toward max capacity
Generation number should advance regularly
Validated strategies counter should increase
Best fitness should trend upward toward 0.50-0.70 range
Observe evolution markers
Diamond markers (cyan) = new strategies spawning
X markers (red) = weak strategies being culled
Frequent early activity = healthy evolution
Activity slowing = population stabilizing
Be patient. Evolution takes time. Don't judge performance before 150+ bars.
Phase 2: Signal Observation
Watch signals form
Gradient cloud builds up 2-3 bars before entry
Cloud brightness = probability strength
Cloud thickness = signal persistence
Check signal quality
Look at confidence halo size when entry marker appears
Large bright halo = elite setup (85%+)
Medium halo = strong setup (75-85%)
Small halo = good setup (65-75%)
Verify market conditions
Check trend EMA color (green = uptrend, red = downtrend, gray = choppy)
Check background tint (green = trending, red = volatile, clear = choppy)
Trending background + aligned signal = ideal conditions
Review dashboard signal status
Current Signal column shows:
Status (Long/Short/Forming/Waiting)
Confidence % (actual probability value)
Quality assessment (Elite/Strong/Good)
Confluence score (2/3 or 3/3 preferred)
Only signals meeting ALL quality gates appear on chart. If you're not seeing signals, population is either still learning or market conditions aren't suitable.
Phase 3: Manual Trading Execution
When Long Signal Fires:
Verify confidence level (dashboard or halo size)
Confirm trend alignment (EMA sloping up, green color)
Check regime (preferably trending or choppy, avoid volatile)
Enter long manually on your broker platform
Set stop loss at displayed stop line level (if lines enabled), or use your own risk management
Set take profit at displayed target line level, or trail manually
Monitor position - exit if X marker appears (signal reversal)
When Short Signal Fires:
Same verification process
Confirm downtrend (EMA sloping down, red color)
Enter short manually
Use displayed stop/target levels or your own
AGE tells you WHEN and HOW CONFIDENT. You decide WHETHER and HOW MUCH.
Phase 4: Set Up Alerts (Never Miss a Signal)
Right-click on indicator name in legend
Select "Add Alert"
Choose condition:
"AGE Long" = Long entry signal fired
"AGE Short" = Short entry signal fired
"AGE Exit" = Position reversal/exit signal
Set notification method:
Sound alert (popup on chart)
Email notification
Webhook to phone/trading platform
Mobile app push notification
Name the alert (e.g., "AGE BTCUSD 15min Long")
Save alert
Recommended: Set alerts for both long and short, enable mobile push notifications. You'll get alerted in real-time even if not watching charts.
Phase 5: Monitor Population Health
Weekly Review:
Check dashboard Population column:
Active count should be near max (6-8 of 8)
Validated count should be >50% of active
Generation should be advancing (1-2 per week typical)
Check dashboard Performance column:
Aggregate win rate should be >50% (target: 55-65%)
Total P&L should be positive (may fluctuate)
Best fitness should be >0.50 (target: 0.55-0.70)
MAS should be declining slowly (normal adaptation)
Check Active Strategy column:
Selected strategy should be validated (✓ VAL)
Personal fitness should match best fitness
Trade count should be accumulating
Win rate should be >50%
Warning Signs:
Zero validated strategies after 300+ bars = settings too strict or market unsuitable
Best fitness stuck <0.30 = population struggling, consider parameter adjustment
No spawning/culling for 200+ bars = evolution stalled (may be optimal or need reset)
Aggregate win rate <45% sustained = system not working on this instrument/timeframe
Health Check Pass:
50%+ strategies validated
Best fitness >0.50
Aggregate win rate >52%
Regular spawn/cull activity
Selected strategy validated
Phase 6: Optimization (If Needed)
Enable Diagnostics Panel (bottom-right) for data-driven tuning:
Problem: Too Few Signals
Evaluated: 200
Passed: 8 (4%)
⨯ Probability: 140 (70%)
Solutions:
Lower min probability: 65% → 60% or 55%
Reduce min confluence: 2 → 1
Lower base persistence: 2 → 1
Increase mutation rate temporarily to explore new genes
Check if regime filter is blocking signals (⨯ Regime high?)
Problem: Too Many False Signals
Evaluated: 200
Passed: 90 (45%)
Win rate: 42%
Solutions:
Raise min probability: 65% → 70% or 75%
Increase min confluence: 2 → 3
Raise base persistence: 2 → 3
Enable WFO if disabled (validates strategies before use)
Check if volume filter is being ignored (⨯ Volume low?)
Problem: Counter-Trend Losses
⨯ Trend: 5 (only 5% rejected)
Losses often occur against trend
Solutions:
System should already filter trend opposition
May need stronger trend requirement
Consider only taking signals aligned with higher timeframe trend
Use longer trend EMA (50 → 100)
Problem: Volatile Market Whipsaws
⨯ Regime: 100 (50% rejected by volatile regime)
Still getting stopped out frequently
Solutions:
System is correctly blocking volatile signals
Losses happening because vol filter isn't strict enough
Consider not trading during volatile periods (respect the regime)
Or disable regime filter and accept higher risk
Optimization Workflow:
Enable diagnostics
Run 200+ bars with current settings
Analyze rejection patterns and win rate
Make ONE change at a time (scientific method)
Re-run 200+ bars and compare results
Keep change if improvement, revert if worse
Disable diagnostics when satisfied
Never change multiple parameters at once - you won't know what worked.
Phase 7: Multi-Instrument Deployment
AGE learns independently on each chart:
Recommended Strategy:
Deploy AGE on 3-5 different instruments
Different asset classes ideal (e.g., ES futures, EURUSD, BTCUSD, SPY, Gold)
Each learns optimal strategies for that instrument's personality
Take signals from all 5 charts
Natural diversification reduces overall risk
Why This Works:
When one market is choppy, others may be trending
Different instruments respond to different news/catalysts
Portfolio-level win rate more stable than single-instrument
Evolution explores different parameter spaces on each chart
Setup:
Same settings across all charts (or customize if preferred)
Set alerts for all
Take every validated signal across all instruments
Position size based on total account (don't overleverage any single signal)
⚠️ REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS - CRITICAL READING
What AGE Can Do
✅ Generate probability-weighted signals using genetic algorithms
✅ Evolve strategies in real-time through natural selection
✅ Validate strategies on out-of-sample data (walk-forward optimization)
✅ Adapt to changing market conditions automatically over time
✅ Provide comprehensive metrics on population health and signal quality
✅ Work on any instrument, any timeframe, any broker
✅ Improve over time as weak strategies are culled and fit strategies breed
What AGE Cannot Do
❌ Win every trade (typical win rate: 55-65% at best)
❌ Predict the future with certainty (markets are probabilistic, not deterministic)
❌ Work perfectly from bar 1 (needs 100-150 bars to learn and stabilize)
❌ Guarantee profits under all market conditions
❌ Replace your trading discipline and risk management
❌ Execute trades automatically (this is an indicator, not a strategy)
❌ Prevent all losses (drawdowns are normal and expected)
❌ Adapt instantly to regime changes (re-learning takes 50-100 bars)
Performance Realities
Typical Performance After Evolution Stabilizes (150+ bars):
Win Rate: 55-65% (excellent for trend-following systems)
Profit Factor: 1.5-2.5 (realistic for validated strategies)
Signal Frequency: 5-15 signals per 100 bars (quality over quantity)
Drawdown Periods: 20-40% of time in equity retracement (normal trading reality)
Max Consecutive Losses: 5-8 losses possible even with 60% win rate (probability says this is normal)
Evolution Timeline:
Bars 0-50: Random exploration, learning phase - poor results expected, don't judge yet
Bars 50-150: Population converging, fitness climbing - results improving
Bars 150-300: Stable performance, most strategies validated - consistent results
Bars 300+: Mature population, optimal genes dominant - best results
Market Condition Dependency:
Trending Markets: AGE excels - clear directional moves, high-probability setups
Choppy Markets: AGE struggles - fewer signals generated, lower win rate
Volatile Markets: AGE cautious - higher rejection rate, wider stops, fewer trades
Market Regime Changes:
When market shifts from trending to choppy overnight
Validated strategies can become temporarily invalidated
AGE will adapt through evolution, but not instantly
Expect 50-100 bar re-learning period after major regime shifts
Fitness may temporarily drop then recover
This is NOT a holy grail. It's a sophisticated signal generator that learns and adapts using genetic algorithms. Your success depends on:
Patience during learning periods (don't abandon after 3 losses)
Proper position sizing (risk 0.5-2% per trade, not 10%)
Following signals consistently (cherry-picking defeats statistical edge)
Not abandoning system prematurely (give it 200+ bars minimum)
Understanding probability (60% win rate means 40% of trades WILL lose)
Respecting market conditions (trending = trade more, choppy = trade less)
Managing emotions (AGE is emotionless, you need to be too)
Expected Drawdowns:
Single-strategy max DD: 10-20% of equity (normal)
Portfolio across multiple instruments: 5-15% (diversification helps)
Losing streaks: 3-5 consecutive losses expected periodically
No indicator eliminates risk. AGE manages risk through:
Quality gates (rejecting low-probability signals)
Confluence requirements (multi-indicator confirmation)
Persistence requirements (no knee-jerk reactions)
Regime awareness (reduced trading in chaos)
Walk-forward validation (preventing overfitting)
But it cannot prevent all losses. That's inherent to trading.
🔧 TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
Platform: TradingView Pine Script v5
Indicator Type: Overlay indicator (plots on price chart)
Execution Type: Signals only - no automatic order placement
Computational Load:
Moderate to High (genetic algorithms + shadow portfolios)
8 strategies × shadow portfolio simulation = significant computation
Premium visuals add additional load (gradient cloud, fitness ribbon)
TradingView Resource Limits (Built-in Caps):
Max Bars Back: 500 (sufficient for WFO and evolution)
Max Labels: 100 (plenty for entry/exit markers)
Max Lines: 150 (adequate for stop/target lines)
Max Boxes: 50 (not heavily used)
Max Polylines: 100 (confidence halos)
Recommended Chart Settings:
Timeframe: 15min to 1H (optimal signal/noise balance)
5min: Works but noisier, more signals
4H/Daily: Works but fewer signals
Bars Loaded: 1000+ (ensures sufficient evolution history)
Replay Mode: Excellent for testing without risk
Performance Optimization Tips:
Disable gradient cloud if chart lags (most CPU intensive visual)
Disable fitness ribbon if still laggy
Reduce cloud layers from 7 to 3
Reduce ribbon layers from 10 to 5
Turn off diagnostics panel unless actively tuning
Close other heavy indicators to free resources
Browser/Platform Compatibility:
Works on all modern browsers (Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge)
Mobile app supported (full functionality on phone/tablet)
Desktop app supported (best performance)
Web version supported (may be slower on older computers)
Data Requirements:
Real-time or delayed data both work
No special data feeds required
Works with TradingView's standard data
Historical + live data seamlessly integrated
🎓 THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS
AGE synthesizes advanced concepts from multiple disciplines:
Evolutionary Computation
Genetic Algorithms (Holland, 1975): Population-based optimization through natural selection metaphor
Tournament Selection: Fitness-based parent selection with diversity preservation
Crossover Operators: Fitness-weighted gene recombination from two parents
Mutation Operators: Random gene perturbation for exploration of new parameter space
Elitism: Preservation of top N performers to prevent loss of best solutions
Adaptive Parameters: Different mutation rates for historical vs. live phases
Technical Analysis
Support/Resistance: Price structure within swing ranges
Trend Following: EMA-based directional bias
Momentum Analysis: RSI, ROC, MACD composite indicators
Volatility Analysis: ATR-based risk scaling
Volume Confirmation: Trade activity validation
Information Theory
Shannon Entropy (1948): Quantification of market order vs. disorder
Signal-to-Noise Ratio: Directional information vs. random walk
Information Content: How much "information" a price move contains
Statistics & Probability
Walk-Forward Analysis: Rolling in-sample/out-of-sample optimization
Out-of-Sample Validation: Testing on unseen data to prevent overfitting
Monte Carlo Principles: Shadow portfolio simulation with realistic execution
Expectancy Theory: Win rate × avg win - loss rate × avg loss
Probability Distributions: Signal confidence quantification
Risk Management
ATR-Based Stops: Volatility-normalized risk per trade
Volatility Regime Detection: Market state classification (trending/choppy/volatile)
Drawdown Control: Peak-to-trough equity measurement
R-Multiple Normalization: Performance measurement in risk units
Machine Learning Concepts
Online Learning: Continuous adaptation as new data arrives
Fitness Functions: Multi-objective optimization (win rate + expectancy + drawdown)
Exploration vs. Exploitation: Balance between trying new strategies and using proven ones
Overfitting Prevention: Walk-forward validation as regularization
Novel Contribution:
AGE is the first TradingView indicator to apply genetic algorithms to real-time indicator parameter optimization while maintaining strict anti-overfitting controls through walk-forward validation.
Most "adaptive" indicators simply recalibrate lookback periods or thresholds. AGE evolves entirely new strategies through competitive selection - it's not parameter tuning, it's Darwinian evolution of trading logic itself.
The combination of:
Genetic algorithm population management
Shadow portfolio simulation for realistic fitness evaluation
Walk-forward validation to prevent overfitting
Multi-indicator confluence for signal quality
Dynamic volatility scaling for adaptive risk
...creates a system that genuinely learns and improves over time while avoiding the curse of curve-fitting that plagues most optimization approaches.
🏗️ DEVELOPMENT NOTES
This project represents months of intensive development, facing significant technical challenges:
Challenge 1: Making Genetics Actually Work
Early versions spawned garbage strategies that polluted the gene pool:
Random gene combinations produced nonsensical parameter sets
Weak strategies survived too long, dragging down population
No clear convergence toward optimal solutions
Solution:
Comprehensive fitness scoring (4 factors: win rate, P&L, expectancy, drawdown)
Elite preservation (top 2 always protected)
Walk-forward validation (unproven strategies penalized 30%)
Tournament selection (fitness-weighted breeding)
Adaptive culling (MAS decay creates increasing selection pressure)
Challenge 2: Balancing Evolution Speed vs. Stability
Too fast = population chaos, no convergence. Too slow = can't adapt to regime changes.
Solution:
Dual-phase timing: Fast evolution during historical (30/60 bar intervals), slow during live (200/400 bar intervals)
Adaptive mutation rates: 20% historical, 8% live
Spawn/cull ratio: Always 2:1 to prevent population collapse
Challenge 3: Shadow Portfolio Accuracy
Needed realistic trade simulation without lookahead bias:
Can't peek at future bars for exits
Must track multiple portfolios simultaneously
Stop/target checks must use bar's high/low correctly
Solution:
Entry on close (realistic)
Exit checks on current bar's high/low (realistic)
Independent position tracking per strategy
Cooldown periods to prevent unrealistic rapid re-entry
ATR-normalized P&L (R-multiples) for fair comparison across volatility regimes
Challenge 4: Pine Script Compilation Limits
Hit TradingView's execution limits multiple times:
Too many array operations
Too many variables
Too complex conditional logic
Solution:
Optimized data structures (single DNA array instead of 8 separate arrays)
Minimal visual overlays (only essential plots)
Efficient fitness calculations (vectorized where possible)
Strategic use of barstate.islast to minimize dashboard updates
Challenge 5: Walk-Forward Implementation
Standard WFO is difficult in Pine Script:
Can't easily "roll forward" through historical data
Can't re-optimize strategies mid-stream
Must work in real-time streaming environment
Solution:
Age-based phase detection (first 250 bars = training, next 75 = testing)
Separate metric tracking for train vs. test
Efficiency calculation at fixed interval (after test period completes)
Validation flag persists for strategy lifetime
Challenge 6: Signal Quality Control
Early versions generated too many signals with poor win rates:
Single indicators produced excessive noise
No trend alignment
No regime awareness
Instant entries on single-bar spikes
Solution:
Three-layer confluence system (entropy + momentum + structure)
Minimum 2-of-3 agreement requirement
Trend alignment checks (penalty for counter-trend)
Regime-based probability adjustments
Persistence requirements (signals must hold multiple bars)
Volume confirmation
Quality gate (probability + confluence thresholds)
The Result
A system that:
Truly evolves (not just parameter sweeps)
Truly validates (out-of-sample testing)
Truly adapts (ongoing competition and breeding)
Stays within TradingView's platform constraints
Provides institutional-quality signals
Maintains transparency (full metrics dashboard)
Development time: 3+ months of iterative refinement
Lines of code: ~1500 (highly optimized)
Test instruments: ES, NQ, EURUSD, BTCUSD, SPY, AAPL
Test timeframes: 5min, 15min, 1H, Daily
🎯 FINAL WORDS
The Adaptive Genesis Engine is not just another indicator - it's a living system that learns, adapts, and improves through the same principles that drive biological evolution. Every bar it observes adds to its experience. Every strategy it spawns explores new parameter combinations. Every strategy it culls removes weakness from the gene pool.
This is evolution in action on your charts.
You're not getting a static formula locked in time. You're getting a system that thinks , that competes , that survives through natural selection. The strongest strategies rise to the top. The weakest die. The gene pool improves generation after generation.
AGE doesn't claim to predict the future - it adapts to whatever the future brings. When markets shift from trending to choppy, from calm to volatile, from bullish to bearish - AGE evolves new strategies suited to the new regime.
Use it on any instrument. Any timeframe. Any market condition. AGE will adapt.
This indicator gives you the pure signal intelligence. How you choose to act on it - position sizing, risk management, execution discipline - that's your responsibility. AGE tells you when and how confident . You decide whether and how much .
Trust the process. Respect the evolution. Let Darwin work.
"In markets, as in nature, it is not the strongest strategies that survive, nor the most intelligent - but those most responsive to change."
Taking you to school. — Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
— Happy Holiday's
NQ Hourly Retracements - 12y Stats with LevelsHour Stats with Levels - TradingView Indicator Description
IMPORTANT: NQ FUTURES ONLY
This indicator is specifically designed for and calibrated to NQ (Nasdaq-100 E-mini) futures only. The statistical data is derived exclusively from 13 years of NQ price action (2013-2025). Do not use this indicator on any other asset, ticker, or market as the statistics will not be applicable and may lead to incorrect trading decisions.
Overview
"Hour Stats with Levels" is a statistical analysis indicator that provides real-time probability-based insights into hourly price behavior patterns. The indicator combines historical pattern recognition with live price action to help traders anticipate potential sweep and reversal scenarios within each trading hour.
Originality and Core Concept
This indicator is based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of 12y years of 1-minute NQ futures data, examining a specific price pattern: when an hourly candle opens inside the previous hour's range. Unlike generic support/resistance indicators, this tool provides hour-specific, context-aware probabilities based on 30,000+ historical occurrences of this pattern.
The originality lies in three key areas:
Pattern-Specific Statistics: Rather than applying generic technical analysis, the indicator only activates when the current hour opens within the previous hour's range, providing relevant statistics for this exact scenario.
Context-Aware Probabilities: Statistics are differentiated based on whether the current hour opened above or below the previous hour's open, recognizing that bullish and bearish opening contexts produce different behavioral patterns.
Comprehensive Retracement Tracking: The indicator tracks four independent retracement levels after a sweep occurs, showing the probability of price returning to: the swept level itself (90+% probability), the 50% level, the current hour's open, and the opposite extreme.
How It Works
The Core Pattern
The indicator monitors a specific price structure:
Setup Condition: The current hourly candle opens inside (between) the previous hour's high and low
Sweep Event: Price then breaks above the previous high (high sweep) or below the previous low (low sweep)
Retracement Analysis: After a sweep, the indicator tracks whether price retraces to key levels
Statistical Foundation
The underlying analysis processed 1-minute bar data from 2013-2025, identifying every instance where an hourly candle opened inside the previous hour's range. For each occurrence, the system tracked:
Whether the high, low, or both were swept during that hour
The distance of the sweep measured as a percentage of the previous hour's range
Whether price retraced to four key levels: the swept level, the 50% point, the current open, and the opposite extreme
These measurements were aggregated for all 24 hours of the trading day, with separate statistics for bullish contexts (opening above previous open) and bearish contexts (opening below previous open), creating 48 unique statistical profiles.
Sweep Distance Percentiles
The "reversal levels" are drawn based on historical sweep distance distributions:
25th Percentile: 75% of historical sweeps were larger than this distance. This represents a conservative reversal zone where smaller, contained sweeps typically reverse.
Median (50th Percentile): The midpoint of all historical sweep distances. Half of all sweeps reversed before reaching this level, half extended beyond it.
75th Percentile: Only 25% of sweeps extended beyond this distance. This represents an extended sweep zone where price has historically shown exhaustion.
For example, if the previous hour's range was 20 points and the median high sweep distance is 40% of range, the median reversal level would be placed 8 points above the previous high.
How to Use the Indicator
Sweeps were calculated using 1m data - as such, it's recommended to use the indicator on a 1min chart
Visual Components
Hour Delimiter (Gray Vertical Line)
Marks the start of each new hour
Helps identify when new statistics become active
Sweep Markers
Green "H" label: High sweep has occurred this hour
Red "L" label: Low sweep has occurred this hour
Markers appear on the exact bar where the sweep happened
Target Levels (Blue Lines)
Prev Open: Previous hour's opening price
Prev High: Previous hour's highest price (sweep target)
Prev Low: Previous hour's lowest price (sweep target)
Prev 50%: Midpoint of previous hour's range
Current Open: Current hour's opening price (key retracement target)
Reversal Levels (Purple Dashed Lines)
Positioned beyond the previous high/low based on historical sweep percentiles
Three levels above previous high (for high sweeps)
Three levels below previous low (for low sweeps)
These represent statistically-derived zones where sweeps typically exhaust
The Statistics Table
The table dynamically updates each hour and displays different statistics based on whether the current hour opened above or below the previous hour's open.
Status Row
Shows current state: waiting for sweep, or which sweep(s) have occurred
If waiting, indicates which sweep is more probable based on historical data
SWEEP PROBABILITIES Section
High Sweep: Historical probability (%) that price will sweep the previous high this hour
Low Sweep: Historical probability (%) that price will sweep the previous low this hour
Both Sweeps: Historical probability (%) that price will sweep both levels this hour
These probabilities are derived from counting how many times each pattern occurred in similar historical contexts. For example, "High Sweep: 73.18%" means that in 73.18% of historical occurrences where the hour opened in this same context (same hour of day, same position relative to previous open), price swept the previous high before the hour closed.
AFTER HIGH SWEEP → Section
These statistics activate only after a high sweep has occurred. They show the probability of price retracing to various levels:
→ Prev High: Probability that price returns to (or below) the level it just swept. This is typically 90%+ because sweeps often act as "false breakouts" or liquidity grabs before reversal.
→ 50% Level: Probability that price retraces at least halfway back into the previous hour's range. This represents a moderate retracement.
→ Current Open: Probability that price retraces all the way back to where the current hour opened. This indicates a complete reversal of the sweep move.
→ Prev Low: Probability that price retraces entirely through the previous range to touch the opposite extreme. This represents a full reversal pattern.
AFTER LOW SWEEP → Section
Mirror of the above, but for low sweeps:
→ Prev Low: Retracement to the swept low level (90%+ probability)
→ 50% Level: Retracement to middle of range
→ Current Open: Full retracement to current hour's open
→ Prev High: Complete reversal to opposite extreme
Important Note on Retracement Statistics: These percentages are tracked independently. A 90% probability of returning to the swept level doesn't mean there's only a 10% chance of deeper retracement. Price can (and often does) retrace through multiple levels sequentially. The percentages show how many times price reached at least that level, not where it stopped.
Trading Applications
Anticipating Sweeps
When an hour opens inside the previous range, check the probabilities. If "High Sweep: 70%" and "Low Sweep: 30%", you know there's a 70% historical likelihood of an upside sweep occurring this hour. This doesn't guarantee it will happen, but provides statistical context for potential setups.
Reversal Trading
The most reliable pattern in the data is the 90%+ retracement probability to swept levels. When a sweep occurs, traders can anticipate a retracement back to at least the swept level in the vast majority of cases. The reversal level percentiles help identify where sweeps may exhaust.
Position Management
The retracement probabilities help manage existing positions. For example, if you're long and a high sweep occurs, you know there's a 90%+ chance of at least some retracement to the swept level, which might inform profit-taking or stop-loss decisions.
Confluence with Current Open
The "Current Open" retracement statistics (typically 60-70%) highlight the magnetic quality of the hour's opening price. After a sweep, price frequently returns to test this level.
Customization Options
The indicator offers extensive visual customization:
Toggle on/off: hour delimiters, sweep markers, target levels, reversal levels, statistics table
Customize colors, line widths, and styles for all visual elements
Adjust label sizes and table position
Show/hide individual target levels and reversal percentiles
Limitations and Considerations
Pattern-Specific: The indicator only provides statistics when the current hour opens inside the previous hour's range. If the hour opens outside this range (gaps up or down), the statistics are not applicable.
Historical Probabilities: The percentages represent historical frequencies, not predictions. A 70% probability means it happened 70% of the time historically, not that it will definitely happen 7 out of 10 times going forward.
NQ-Specific Calibration: All statistics are derived from NQ futures data. Market behavior, volatility, and patterns differ across assets.
Hour-Specific Behavior: Different hours show dramatically different statistics. For example, the 9 AM EST hour (market open) shows much higher sweep probabilities (80%+) than the 5 PM EST hour (30-50%) due to differing liquidity and volatility conditions.
No Guarantee of Execution: While a 90% retracement probability is high, it means 10% of the time, price did NOT retrace. Always use proper risk management.
Technical Notes
The indicator uses hourly timeframe data via request.security() to determine previous hour values
Sweep detection occurs in real-time on the chart's timeframe
Statistics are hardcoded from the comprehensive backtested analysis (not calculated on-the-fly)
The indicator stores static values at the start of each hour to ensure consistency as the hour progresses
All percentage values are rounded to one decimal place for clarity
This indicator provides a statistically-grounded framework for understanding hourly price behavior in NQ futures. By combining real-time pattern detection with comprehensive historical analysis, it offers traders probabilistic insights to inform decision-making process within the specific context of each trading hour.
Power RSI Segment Runner [CHE] Power RSI Segment Runner — Tracks RSI momentum across higher timeframe segments to detect directional switches for trend confirmation.
Summary
This indicator calculates a running Relative Strength Index adapted to segments defined by changes in a higher timeframe, such as daily closes, providing a smoothed view of momentum within each period. It distinguishes between completed segments, which fix the final RSI value, and ongoing ones, which update in real time with an exponential moving average filter. Directional switches between bullish and bearish momentum trigger visual alerts, including overlay lines and emojis, while a compact table displays current trend strength as a progress bar. This segmented approach reduces noise from intra-period fluctuations, offering clearer signals for trend persistence compared to standard RSI on lower timeframes.
Motivation: Why this design?
Standard RSI often generates erratic signals in choppy markets due to constant recalculation over fixed lookback periods, leading to false reversals that mislead traders during range-bound or volatile phases. By resetting the RSI accumulation at higher timeframe boundaries, this indicator aligns momentum assessment with broader market cycles, capturing sustained directional bias more reliably. It addresses the gap between short-term noise and long-term trends, helping users filter entries without over-relying on absolute overbought or oversold thresholds.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
- Baseline Reference: Diverges from the classic Wilder RSI, which uses a fixed-length exponential moving average of gains and losses across all bars.
- Architecture Differences:
- Segments momentum resets at higher timeframe changes, isolating calculations per period instead of continuous history.
- Employs persistent sums for ups and downs within segments, with on-the-fly RSI derivation and EMA smoothing.
- Integrates switch detection logic that clears prior visuals on reversal, preventing clutter from outdated alerts.
- Adds overlay projections like horizontal price lines and dynamic percent change trackers for immediate trade context.
- Practical Effect: Charts show discrete RSI endpoints for past segments alongside a curved running trace, making momentum evolution visually intuitive. Switches appear as clean, extendable overlays, reducing alert fatigue and highlighting only confirmed directional shifts, which aids in avoiding whipsaws during minor pullbacks.
How it works (technical)
The indicator begins by detecting changes in the specified higher timeframe, such as a new daily bar, to define segment boundaries. At each boundary, it finalizes the prior segment's RSI by summing positive and negative price changes over that period and derives the value from the ratio of those sums, then applies an exponential moving average for smoothing. Within the active segment, it accumulates ongoing ups and downs from price changes relative to the source, recalculating the running RSI similarly and smoothing it with the same EMA length.
Points for the running RSI are collected into an array starting from the segment's onset, forming a curved polyline once sufficient bars accumulate. Comparisons between the running RSI and the last completed segment's value determine the current direction as long, short, or neutral, with switches triggering deletions of old visuals and creation of new ones: a label at the RSI pane, a vertical dashed line across the RSI range, an emoji positioned via ATR offset on the price chart, a solid horizontal line at the switch price, a dashed line tracking current close, and a midpoint label for percent change from the switch.
Initialization occurs on the first bar by resetting accumulators, and visualization gates behind a minimum bar count since the segment start to avoid early instability. The trend strength table builds vertically with filled cells proportional to the rounded RSI value, colored by direction. All drawing objects update or extend on subsequent bars to reflect live progress.
Parameter Guide
EMA Length — Controls the smoothing applied to the running RSI; higher values increase lag but reduce noise. Default: 10. Trade-offs: Shorter settings heighten sensitivity for fast markets but risk more false switches; longer ones suit trending conditions for stability.
Source — Selects the price data for change calculations, typically close for standard momentum. Default: close. Trade-offs: Open or high/low may emphasize gaps, altering segment intensity.
Segment Timeframe — Defines the higher timeframe for segment resets, like daily for intraday charts. Default: D. Trade-offs: Shorter frames create more frequent but shorter segments; longer ones align with major cycles but delay resets.
Overbought Level — Sets the upper threshold for potential overbought conditions (currently unused in visuals). Default: 70. Trade-offs: Adjust for asset volatility; higher values delay bearish warnings.
Oversold Level — Sets the lower threshold for potential oversold conditions (currently unused in visuals). Default: 30. Trade-offs: Lower values permit deeper dips before signaling bullish potential.
Show Completed Label — Toggles labels at segment ends displaying final RSI. Default: true. Trade-offs: Enables historical review but can crowd charts on dense timeframes.
Plot Running Segment — Enables the curved polyline for live RSI trace. Default: true. Trade-offs: Visualizes intra-segment flow; disable for cleaner panes.
Running RSI as Label — Displays current running RSI as a forward-projected label on the last bar. Default: false. Trade-offs: Useful for quick reads; may overlap in tight scales.
Show Switch Label — Activates RSI pane labels on directional switches. Default: true. Trade-offs: Provides context; omit to minimize pane clutter.
Show Switch Line (RSI) — Draws vertical dashed lines across the RSI range at switches. Default: true. Trade-offs: Marks reversal bars clearly; extends both ways for reference.
Show Solid Overlay Line — Projects a horizontal line from switch price forward. Default: true. Trade-offs: Acts as dynamic support/resistance; wider lines enhance visibility.
Show Dashed Overlay Line — Tracks a dashed line from switch to current close. Default: true. Trade-offs: Shows price deviation; thinner for subtlety.
Show Percent Change Label — Midpoint label tracking percent move from switch. Default: true. Trade-offs: Quantifies progress; centers dynamically.
Show Trend Strength Table — Displays right-side table with direction header and RSI bar. Default: true. Trade-offs: Instant strength gauge; fixed position avoids overlap.
Activate Visualization After N Bars — Delays signals until this many bars into a segment. Default: 3. Trade-offs: Filters immature readings; higher values miss early momentum.
Segment End Label — Color for completed RSI labels. Default: 7E57C2. Trade-offs: Purple tones for finality.
Running RSI — Color for polyline and running elements. Default: yellow. Trade-offs: Bright for live tracking.
Long — Color for bullish switch visuals. Default: green. Trade-offs: Standard for uptrends.
Short — Color for bearish switch visuals. Default: red. Trade-offs: Standard for downtrends.
Solid Line Width — Thickness of horizontal overlay line. Default: 2. Trade-offs: Bolder for emphasis on key levels.
Dashed Line Width — Thickness of tracking and vertical lines. Default: 1. Trade-offs: Finer to avoid dominance.
Reading & Interpretation
Completed segment RSIs appear as static points or labels in purple, indicating the fixed momentum at period close—values drifting toward the upper half suggest building strength, while lower half implies weakness. The yellow curved polyline traces the live smoothed RSI within the current segment, rising for accumulating gains and falling for losses. Directional labels and lines in green or red flag switches: green for running momentum exceeding the prior segment's, signaling potential uptrend continuation; red for the opposite.
The right table's header colors green for long, red for short, or gray for neutral/wait, with filled purple bars scaling from bottom (low RSI) to top (high), topped by the numeric value. Overlay elements project from switch bars: the solid green/red line as a price anchor, dashed tracker showing pullback extent, and percent label quantifying deviation—positive for alignment with direction, negative for counter-moves. Emojis (up arrow for long, down for short) float above/below price via ATR spacing for quick chart scans.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
- Trend Following: Enter long on green switch confirmation after a higher high in structure; filter with table strength above midpoint for conviction. Pair with volume surge for added weight.
- Exits/Stops: Trail stops to the solid overlay line on pullbacks; exit if percent change reverses beyond 2 percent against direction. Use wait bars to confirm without chasing.
- Multi-Asset/Multi-TF: Defaults suit forex/stocks on 1H-4H with daily segments; for crypto, shorten EMA to 5 for volatility. Scale segment TF to weekly for daily charts across indices.
- Combinations: Overlay on EMA clouds for confluence—switch aligning with cloud break strengthens signal. Add volatility filters like ATR bands to debounce in low-volume regimes.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Signals confirm on bar close within segments, with running polyline updating live but gated by minimum bars to prevent flicker. Higher timeframe changes may introduce minor repaints on timeframe switches, mitigated by relying on confirmed HTF closes rather than intrabar peeks. Resource limits cap at 500 labels/lines and 50 polylines, pruning old objects on switches to stay efficient; no explicit loops, but array growth ties to segment length—suitable for up to 500-bar histories without lag.
Known limits include delayed visualization in short segments and insensitivity to overbought/oversold levels, as thresholds are inputted but not actively visualized. Gaps in source data reset accumulators prematurely, potentially skewing early RSI.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Start with EMA length 10, daily segments, and 3-bar wait for balanced responsiveness on hourly charts. For excessive switches in ranging markets, increase wait bars to 5 or EMA to 14 to dampen noise. If signals lag in trends, drop EMA to 5 and use 1H segments. For stable assets like indices, widen to weekly segments; tune colors for dark/light themes without altering logic.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This tool serves as a momentum visualization and switch detector layered over price action, aiding trend identification and confirmation in segmented contexts. It is not a standalone trading system, predictive model, or risk calculator—always integrate with broader analysis, position sizing, and stop-loss discipline. View it as an enhancement for discretionary setups, not automated alerts without validation.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
taLibrary "ta"
█ OVERVIEW
This library holds technical analysis functions calculating values for which no Pine built-in exists.
Look first. Then leap.
█ FUNCTIONS
cagr(entryTime, entryPrice, exitTime, exitPrice)
It calculates the "Compound Annual Growth Rate" between two points in time. The CAGR is a notional, annualized growth rate that assumes all profits are reinvested. It only takes into account the prices of the two end points — not drawdowns, so it does not calculate risk. It can be used as a yardstick to compare the performance of two instruments. Because it annualizes values, the function requires a minimum of one day between the two end points (annualizing returns over smaller periods of times doesn't produce very meaningful figures).
Parameters:
entryTime : The starting timestamp.
entryPrice : The starting point's price.
exitTime : The ending timestamp.
exitPrice : The ending point's price.
Returns: CAGR in % (50 is 50%). Returns `na` if there is not >=1D between `entryTime` and `exitTime`, or until the two time points have not been reached by the script.
█ v2, Mar. 8, 2022
Added functions `allTimeHigh()` and `allTimeLow()` to find the highest or lowest value of a source from the first historical bar to the current bar. These functions will not look ahead; they will only return new highs/lows on the bar where they occur.
allTimeHigh(src)
Tracks the highest value of `src` from the first historical bar to the current bar.
Parameters:
src : (series int/float) Series to track. Optional. The default is `high`.
Returns: (float) The highest value tracked.
allTimeLow(src)
Tracks the lowest value of `src` from the first historical bar to the current bar.
Parameters:
src : (series int/float) Series to track. Optional. The default is `low`.
Returns: (float) The lowest value tracked.
█ v3, Sept. 27, 2022
This version includes the following new functions:
aroon(length)
Calculates the values of the Aroon indicator.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: ( [float, float ]) A tuple of the Aroon-Up and Aroon-Down values.
coppock(source, longLength, shortLength, smoothLength)
Calculates the value of the Coppock Curve indicator.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
longLength (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars for the fast ROC value (length).
shortLength (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars for the slow ROC value (length).
smoothLength (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars for the weigted moving average value (length).
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
dema(source, length)
Calculates the value of the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA).
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The double exponentially weighted moving average of the `source`.
dema2(src, length)
An alternate Double Exponential Moving Average (Dema) function to `dema()`, which allows a "series float" length argument.
Parameters:
src : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length : (series int/float) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The double exponentially weighted moving average of the `src`.
dm(length)
Calculates the value of the "Demarker" indicator.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
donchian(length)
Calculates the values of a Donchian Channel using `high` and `low` over a given `length`.
Parameters:
length (int) : (series int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: ( [float, float, float ]) A tuple containing the channel high, low, and median, respectively.
ema2(src, length)
An alternate ema function to the `ta.ema()` built-in, which allows a "series float" length argument.
Parameters:
src : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length : (series int/float) Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The exponentially weighted moving average of the `src`.
eom(length, div)
Calculates the value of the Ease of Movement indicator.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars (length).
div (simple int) : (simple int) Divisor used for normalzing values. Optional. The default is 10000.
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
frama(source, length)
The Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA), developed by John Ehlers, is an adaptive moving average that dynamically adjusts its lookback period based on fractal geometry.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (int) : (series int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The fractal adaptive moving average of the `source`.
ft(source, length)
Calculates the value of the Fisher Transform indicator.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
ht(source)
Calculates the value of the Hilbert Transform indicator.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
ichimoku(conLength, baseLength, senkouLength)
Calculates values of the Ichimoku Cloud indicator, including tenkan, kijun, senkouSpan1, senkouSpan2, and chikou. NOTE: offsets forward or backward can be done using the `offset` argument in `plot()`.
Parameters:
conLength (int) : (series int) Length for the Conversion Line (Tenkan). The default is 9 periods, which returns the mid-point of the 9 period Donchian Channel.
baseLength (int) : (series int) Length for the Base Line (Kijun-sen). The default is 26 periods, which returns the mid-point of the 26 period Donchian Channel.
senkouLength (int) : (series int) Length for the Senkou Span 2 (Leading Span B). The default is 52 periods, which returns the mid-point of the 52 period Donchian Channel.
Returns: ( [float, float, float, float, float ]) A tuple of the Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span 1, Senkou Span 2, and Chikou Span values. NOTE: by default, the senkouSpan1 and senkouSpan2 should be plotted 26 periods in the future, and the Chikou Span plotted 26 days in the past.
ift(source)
Calculates the value of the Inverse Fisher Transform indicator.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
kvo(fastLen, slowLen, trigLen)
Calculates the values of the Klinger Volume Oscillator.
Parameters:
fastLen (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the fast moving average smoothing parameter calculation.
slowLen (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the slow moving average smoothing parameter calculation.
trigLen (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the trigger moving average smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: ( [float, float ]) A tuple of the KVO value, and the trigger value.
pzo(length)
Calculates the value of the Price Zone Oscillator.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
rms(source, length)
Calculates the Root Mean Square of the `source` over the `length`.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (int) : (series int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The RMS value.
rwi(length)
Calculates the values of the Random Walk Index.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : (simple int) Lookback and ATR smoothing parameter length.
Returns: ( [float, float ]) A tuple of the `rwiHigh` and `rwiLow` values.
stc(source, fast, slow, cycle, d1, d2)
Calculates the value of the Schaff Trend Cycle indicator.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
fast (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the MACD fast smoothing parameter calculation.
slow (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the MACD slow smoothing parameter calculation.
cycle (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars for the Stochastic values (length).
d1 (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the initial %D smoothing parameter calculation.
d2 (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the final %D smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
stochFull(periodK, smoothK, periodD)
Calculates the %K and %D values of the Full Stochastic indicator.
Parameters:
periodK (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars for Stochastic calculation. (length).
smoothK (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars for smoothing of the %K value (length).
periodD (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars for smoothing of the %D value (length).
Returns: ( [float, float ]) A tuple of the slow %K and the %D moving average values.
stochRsi(lengthRsi, periodK, smoothK, periodD, source)
Calculates the %K and %D values of the Stochastic RSI indicator.
Parameters:
lengthRsi (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the RSI smoothing parameter calculation.
periodK (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars for Stochastic calculation. (length).
smoothK (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars for smoothing of the %K value (length).
periodD (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars for smoothing of the %D value (length).
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process. Optional. The default is `close`.
Returns: ( [float, float ]) A tuple of the slow %K and the %D moving average values.
supertrend(factor, atrLength, wicks)
Calculates the values of the SuperTrend indicator with the ability to take candle wicks into account, rather than only the closing price.
Parameters:
factor (float) : (series int/float) Multiplier for the ATR value.
atrLength (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the ATR smoothing parameter calculation.
wicks (simple bool) : (simple bool) Condition to determine whether to take candle wicks into account when reversing trend, or to use the close price. Optional. Default is false.
Returns: ( [float, int ]) A tuple of the superTrend value and trend direction.
szo(source, length)
Calculates the value of the Sentiment Zone Oscillator.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
t3(source, length, vf)
Calculates the value of the Tilson Moving Average (T3).
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
vf (simple float) : (simple float) Volume factor. Affects the responsiveness.
Returns: (float) The Tilson moving average of the `source`.
t3Alt(source, length, vf)
An alternate Tilson Moving Average (T3) function to `t3()`, which allows a "series float" `length` argument.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (float) : (series int/float) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
vf (simple float) : (simple float) Volume factor. Affects the responsiveness.
Returns: (float) The Tilson moving average of the `source`.
tema(source, length)
Calculates the value of the Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA).
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The triple exponentially weighted moving average of the `source`.
tema2(source, length)
An alternate Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA) function to `tema()`, which allows a "series float" `length` argument.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (float) : (series int/float) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The triple exponentially weighted moving average of the `source`.
trima(source, length)
Calculates the value of the Triangular Moving Average (TRIMA).
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (int) : (series int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The triangular moving average of the `source`.
trima2(src, length)
An alternate Triangular Moving Average (TRIMA) function to `trima()`, which allows a "series int" length argument.
Parameters:
src : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length : (series int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The triangular moving average of the `src`.
trix(source, length, signalLength, exponential)
Calculates the values of the TRIX indicator.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
signalLength (simple int) : (simple int) Length for smoothing the signal line.
exponential (simple bool) : (simple bool) Condition to determine whether exponential or simple smoothing is used. Optional. The default is `true` (exponential smoothing).
Returns: ( [float, float, float ]) A tuple of the TRIX value, the signal value, and the histogram.
uo(fastLen, midLen, slowLen)
Calculates the value of the Ultimate Oscillator.
Parameters:
fastLen (simple int) : (series int) Number of bars for the fast smoothing average (length).
midLen (simple int) : (series int) Number of bars for the middle smoothing average (length).
slowLen (simple int) : (series int) Number of bars for the slow smoothing average (length).
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
vhf(source, length)
Calculates the value of the Vertical Horizontal Filter.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
vi(length)
Calculates the values of the Vortex Indicator.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : (simple int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: ( [float, float ]) A tuple of the viPlus and viMinus values.
vzo(length)
Calculates the value of the Volume Zone Oscillator.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
williamsFractal(period)
Detects Williams Fractals.
Parameters:
period (int) : (series int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: ( [bool, bool ]) A tuple of an up fractal and down fractal. Variables are true when detected.
wpo(length)
Calculates the value of the Wave Period Oscillator.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The oscillator value.
█ v7, Nov. 2, 2023
This version includes the following new and updated functions:
atr2(length)
An alternate ATR function to the `ta.atr()` built-in, which allows a "series float" `length` argument.
Parameters:
length (float) : (series int/float) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The ATR value.
changePercent(newValue, oldValue)
Calculates the percentage difference between two distinct values.
Parameters:
newValue (float) : (series int/float) The current value.
oldValue (float) : (series int/float) The previous value.
Returns: (float) The percentage change from the `oldValue` to the `newValue`.
donchian(length)
Calculates the values of a Donchian Channel using `high` and `low` over a given `length`.
Parameters:
length (int) : (series int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: ( [float, float, float ]) A tuple containing the channel high, low, and median, respectively.
highestSince(cond, source)
Tracks the highest value of a series since the last occurrence of a condition.
Parameters:
cond (bool) : (series bool) A condition which, when `true`, resets the tracking of the highest `source`.
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process. Optional. The default is `high`.
Returns: (float) The highest `source` value since the last time the `cond` was `true`.
lowestSince(cond, source)
Tracks the lowest value of a series since the last occurrence of a condition.
Parameters:
cond (bool) : (series bool) A condition which, when `true`, resets the tracking of the lowest `source`.
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process. Optional. The default is `low`.
Returns: (float) The lowest `source` value since the last time the `cond` was `true`.
relativeVolume(length, anchorTimeframe, isCumulative, adjustRealtime)
Calculates the volume since the last change in the time value from the `anchorTimeframe`, the historical average volume using bars from past periods that have the same relative time offset as the current bar from the start of its period, and the ratio of these volumes. The volume values are cumulative by default, but can be adjusted to non-accumulated with the `isCumulative` parameter.
Parameters:
length (simple int) : (simple int) The number of periods to use for the historical average calculation.
anchorTimeframe (simple string) : (simple string) The anchor timeframe used in the calculation. Optional. Default is "D".
isCumulative (simple bool) : (simple bool) If `true`, the volume values will be accumulated since the start of the last `anchorTimeframe`. If `false`, values will be used without accumulation. Optional. The default is `true`.
adjustRealtime (simple bool) : (simple bool) If `true`, estimates the cumulative value on unclosed bars based on the data since the last `anchor` condition. Optional. The default is `false`.
Returns: ( [float, float, float ]) A tuple of three float values. The first element is the current volume. The second is the average of volumes at equivalent time offsets from past anchors over the specified number of periods. The third is the ratio of the current volume to the historical average volume.
rma2(source, length)
An alternate RMA function to the `ta.rma()` built-in, which allows a "series float" `length` argument.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values to process.
length (float) : (series int/float) Length for the smoothing parameter calculation.
Returns: (float) The rolling moving average of the `source`.
supertrend2(factor, atrLength, wicks)
An alternate SuperTrend function to `supertrend()`, which allows a "series float" `atrLength` argument.
Parameters:
factor (float) : (series int/float) Multiplier for the ATR value.
atrLength (float) : (series int/float) Length for the ATR smoothing parameter calculation.
wicks (simple bool) : (simple bool) Condition to determine whether to take candle wicks into account when reversing trend, or to use the close price. Optional. Default is `false`.
Returns: ( [float, int ]) A tuple of the superTrend value and trend direction.
vStop(source, atrLength, atrFactor)
Calculates an ATR-based stop value that trails behind the `source`. Can serve as a possible stop-loss guide and trend identifier.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values that the stop trails behind.
atrLength (simple int) : (simple int) Length for the ATR smoothing parameter calculation.
atrFactor (float) : (series int/float) The multiplier of the ATR value. Affects the maximum distance between the stop and the `source` value. A value of 1 means the maximum distance is 100% of the ATR value. Optional. The default is 1.
Returns: ( [float, bool ]) A tuple of the volatility stop value and the trend direction as a "bool".
vStop2(source, atrLength, atrFactor)
An alternate Volatility Stop function to `vStop()`, which allows a "series float" `atrLength` argument.
Parameters:
source (float) : (series int/float) Series of values that the stop trails behind.
atrLength (float) : (series int/float) Length for the ATR smoothing parameter calculation.
atrFactor (float) : (series int/float) The multiplier of the ATR value. Affects the maximum distance between the stop and the `source` value. A value of 1 means the maximum distance is 100% of the ATR value. Optional. The default is 1.
Returns: ( [float, bool ]) A tuple of the volatility stop value and the trend direction as a "bool".
Removed Functions:
allTimeHigh(src)
Tracks the highest value of `src` from the first historical bar to the current bar.
allTimeLow(src)
Tracks the lowest value of `src` from the first historical bar to the current bar.
trima2(src, length)
An alternate Triangular Moving Average (TRIMA) function to `trima()`, which allows a
"series int" length argument.
Ultimate MACD [captainua]Ultimate MACD - Comprehensive MACD Trading System
Overview
This indicator combines traditional MACD calculations with advanced features including divergence detection, volume analysis, histogram analysis tools, regression forecasting, strong top/bottom detection, and multi-timeframe confirmation to provide a comprehensive MACD-based trading system. The script calculates MACD using configurable moving average types (EMA, SMA, RMA, WMA) and applies various smoothing methods to reduce noise while maintaining responsiveness. The combination of these features creates a multi-layered confirmation system that reduces false signals by requiring alignment across multiple indicators and timeframes.
Core Calculations
MACD Calculation:
The script calculates MACD using the standard formula: MACD Line = Fast MA - Slow MA, Signal Line = Moving Average of MACD Line, Histogram = MACD Line - Signal Line. The default parameters are Fast=12, Slow=26, Signal=9, matching the traditional MACD settings. The script supports four moving average types:
- EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Standard and most responsive, default choice
- SMA (Simple Moving Average): Equal weight to all periods
- RMA (Wilder's Moving Average): Smoother, less responsive
- WMA (Weighted Moving Average): Recent prices weighted more heavily
The price source can be configured as Close (standard), Open, High, Low, HL2, HLC3, or OHLC4. Alternative sources provide different sensitivity characteristics for various trading strategies.
Configuration Presets:
The script includes trading style presets that automatically configure MACD parameters:
- Scalping: Fast/Responsive settings (8,18,6 with minimal smoothing)
- Day Trading: Balanced settings (10,22,7 with minimal smoothing)
- Swing Trading: Standard settings (12,26,9 with moderate smoothing)
- Position Trading: Smooth/Conservative settings (15,35,12 with higher smoothing)
- Custom: Full manual control over all parameters
Histogram Smoothing:
The histogram can be smoothed using EMA to reduce noise and filter minor fluctuations. Smoothing length of 1 = raw histogram (no smoothing), higher values (3-5) = smoother histogram. Increased smoothing reduces noise but may delay signals slightly.
Percentage Mode:
MACD values can be converted to percentage of price (MACD/Close*100) for cross-instrument comparison. This is useful when comparing MACD signals across instruments with different price levels (e.g., BTC vs ETH). The percentage mode normalizes MACD values, making them comparable regardless of instrument price.
MACD Scale Factor:
A scale factor multiplier (default 1.0) allows adjusting MACD display size for better visibility. Use 0.3-0.5 if MACD appears too compressed, or 2.0-3.0 if too small.
Dynamic Overbought/Oversold Levels:
Overbought and oversold levels are calculated dynamically based on MACD's mean and standard deviation over a lookback period. The formula: OB = MACD Mean + (StdDev × OB Multiplier), OS = MACD Mean - (StdDev × OS Multiplier). This adapts to current market conditions, widening in volatile markets and narrowing in calm markets. The lookback period (default 20) controls how quickly the levels adapt: longer periods (30-50) = more stable levels, shorter (10-15) = more responsive.
OB/OS Background Coloring:
Optional background coloring can highlight the entire panel when MACD enters overbought or oversold territory, providing prominent visual indication of extreme conditions. The background colors are drawn on top of the main background to ensure visibility.
Divergence Detection
Regular Divergence:
The script uses the MACD line (not histogram) for divergence detection, which provides more reliable signals. Bullish divergence: Price makes a lower low while MACD line makes a higher low. Bearish divergence: Price makes a higher high while MACD line makes a lower high. Divergences often precede reversals and are powerful reversal signals.
Pivot-Based Divergence:
The divergence detection uses actual pivot points (pivotlow/pivothigh) instead of simple lowest/highest comparisons. This provides more accurate divergence detection by identifying significant pivot lows/highs in both price and MACD line. The pivot-based method compares two recent pivot points: for bullish divergence, price makes a lower low while MACD makes a higher low at the pivot points. This method reduces false divergences by requiring actual pivot points rather than just any low/high within a period.
The pivot lookback parameters (left and right) control how many bars on each side of a pivot are required for confirmation. Higher values = more conservative pivot detection.
Hidden Divergence:
Continuation patterns that signal trend continuation rather than reversal. Bullish hidden divergence: Price makes a higher low but MACD makes a lower low. Bearish hidden divergence: Price makes a lower high but MACD makes a higher high. These patterns indicate the trend is likely to continue in the current direction.
Zero-Line Filter:
The "Don't Touch Zero Line" option ensures divergences occur in proper context: for bullish divergence, MACD must stay below zero; for bearish divergence, MACD must stay above zero. This filters out divergences that occur in neutral zones.
Range Filtering:
Minimum and maximum lookback ranges control the time window between pivots to consider for divergence. This helps filter out divergences that are too close together (noise) or too far apart (less relevant).
Volume Confirmation System
Volume threshold filtering requires current volume to exceed the volume SMA multiplied by the threshold factor. The formula: Volume Confirmed = Volume > (Volume SMA × Threshold). If the threshold is set to 1.0 or lower, volume confirmation is effectively disabled (always returns true). This allows you to use the indicator without volume filtering if desired. Volume confirmation significantly increases divergence and signal reliability.
Volume Climax and Dry-Up Detection:
The script can mark bars with extremely high volume (volume climax) or extremely low volume (volume dry-up). Volume climax indicates potential reversal points or strong momentum continuation. Volume dry-up indicates low participation and may produce unreliable signals. These markers use standard deviation multipliers to identify extreme volume conditions.
Zero-Line Cross Detection
MACD zero-line crosses indicate momentum shifts: above zero = bullish momentum, below zero = bearish momentum. The script includes alert conditions for zero-line crosses with cooldown protection to prevent alert spam. Zero-line crosses can provide early warning signals before MACD crosses the signal line.
Histogram Analysis Tools
Histogram Moving Average:
A moving average applied to the histogram itself helps identify histogram trend direction and acts as a signal line for histogram movements. Supports EMA, SMA, RMA, and WMA types. Useful for identifying when histogram momentum is strengthening or weakening.
Histogram Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands are applied to the MACD histogram instead of price. The calculation: Basis = SMA(Histogram, Period), StdDev = stdev(Histogram, Period), Upper = Basis + (StdDev × Deviation Multiplier), Lower = Basis - (StdDev × Deviation Multiplier). This creates dynamic zones around the histogram that adapt to histogram volatility. When the histogram touches or exceeds the bands, it indicates extreme conditions relative to recent histogram behavior.
Stochastic MACD (StochMACD):
Stochastic MACD applies the Stochastic oscillator formula to the MACD histogram instead of price. This normalizes the histogram to a 0-100 scale, making it easier to identify overbought/oversold conditions on the histogram itself. The calculation: %K = ((Histogram - Lowest Histogram) / (Highest Histogram - Lowest Histogram)) × 100. %K is smoothed, and %D is calculated as the moving average of smoothed %K. Standard thresholds are 80 (overbought) and 20 (oversold).
Regression Forecasting
The script includes advanced regression forecasting that predicts future MACD values using mathematical models. This helps anticipate potential MACD movements and provides forward-looking context for trading decisions.
Regression Types:
- Linear: Simple trend line (y = mx + b) - fastest, works well for steady trends
- Polynomial: Quadratic curve (y = ax² + bx + c) - captures curvature in MACD movement
- Exponential Smoothing: Weighted average with more weight on recent values - responsive to recent changes
- Moving Average: Uses difference between short and long MA to estimate trend - stable and smooth
Forecast Horizon:
Number of bars to forecast ahead (default 5, max 50 for linear/MA, max 20 for polynomial due to performance). Longer horizons predict further ahead but may be less accurate.
Confidence Bands:
Optional upper/lower bands around forecast show prediction uncertainty based on forecast error (standard deviation of prediction vs actual). Wider bands = higher uncertainty. The confidence level multiplier (default 1.5) controls band width.
Forecast Display:
Forecast appears as dotted lines extending forward from current bar, with optional confidence bands. All forecast values respect percentage mode and scale factor settings.
Strong Top/Bottom Signals
The script detects strong recovery from extreme MACD levels, generating "sBottom" and "sTop" signals. These identify significant reversal potential when MACD recovers substantially from overbought/oversold extremes.
Strong Bottom (sBottom):
Triggered when:
1. MACD was at or near its lowest point in the bottom period (default 10 bars)
2. MACD was in or near the oversold zone
3. MACD has recovered by at least the threshold amount (default 0.5) from the lowest point
4. Recovery persists for confirmation bars (default 2 consecutive bars)
5. MACD has moved out of the oversold zone
6. Volume is above average
7. All enabled filters pass
8. Minimum bars have passed since last signal (reset period, default 5 bars)
Strong Top (sTop):
Triggered when:
1. MACD was at or near its highest point in the top period (default 7 bars)
2. MACD was in or near the overbought zone
3. MACD has declined by at least the threshold amount (default 0.5) from the highest point
4. Decline persists for confirmation bars (default 2 consecutive bars)
5. MACD has moved out of the overbought zone
6. Volume is above average
7. All enabled filters pass
8. Minimum bars have passed since last signal (reset period, default 5 bars)
Label Placement:
sTop/sBottom labels appear on the historical bar where the actual extreme occurred (not on current bar), showing the exact MACD value at that extreme. Labels respect the unified distance checking system to prevent overlaps with Buy/Sell Strength labels.
Signal Strength Calculation
The script calculates a composite signal strength score (0-100) based on multiple factors:
- MACD distance from signal line (0-50 points): Larger separation indicates stronger signal
- Volume confirmation (0-15 points): Volume above average adds points
- Secondary timeframe alignment (0-15 points): Higher timeframe agreement adds points
- Distance from zero line (0-20 points): Closer to zero can indicate stronger reversal potential
Higher scores (70+) indicate stronger, more reliable signals. The signal strength is displayed in the statistics table and can be used as a filter to only accept signals above a threshold.
Smart Label Placement System
The script includes an advanced label placement system that tracks MACD extremes and places Buy/Sell Strength labels at optimal locations:
Label Placement Algorithm:
- Labels appear on the current bar at confirmation (not on historical extreme bars), ensuring they're visible when the signal is confirmed
- The system tracks pending signals when MACD enters OB/OS zones or crosses the signal line
- During tracking, the system continuously searches for the true extreme (lowest MACD for buys, highest MACD for sells) within a configurable historical lookback period
- Labels are only finalized when: (1) MACD exits the OB/OS zone, (2) sufficient bars have passed (2x minimum distance), (3) MACD has recovered/declined by a configurable percentage from the extreme (default 15%), and (4) tracking has stopped (no better extreme found)
Label Spacing and Overlap Prevention:
- Minimum Bars Between Labels: Base distance requirement (default 5 bars)
- Label Spacing Multiplier: Scales the base distance (default 1.5x) for better distribution. Higher values = more spacing between labels
- Effective distance = Base Distance × Spacing Multiplier (e.g., 5 × 1.5 = 7.5 bars minimum)
- Unified distance checking prevents overlaps between all label types (Buy Strength, Sell Strength, sTop, sBottom)
Strength-Based Filtering:
- Label Strength Minimum (%): Only labels with strength at or above this threshold are displayed (default 75%)
- When multiple potential labels are close together, the system automatically compares strengths and keeps only the strongest one
- This ensures only the most significant signals are displayed, reducing chart clutter
Zero Line Polarity Enforcement:
- Enforce Zero Line Polarity (default enabled): Ensures labels follow traditional MACD interpretation
- Buy Strength labels only appear when the tracked extreme MACD value was below zero (negative territory)
- Sell Strength labels only appear when the tracked extreme MACD value was above zero (positive territory)
- This prevents counter-intuitive labels (e.g., Buy labels above zero line) and aligns with standard MACD trading principles
Recovery/Decline Confirmation:
- Recovery/Decline Confirm (%): Percent move away from the extreme required before finalizing (default 15%)
- For Buy labels: MACD must recover by at least this percentage from the tracked bottom
- For Sell labels: MACD must decline by at least this percentage from the tracked top
- Higher values = more confirmation required, fewer but more reliable labels
Historical Lookback:
- Historical Lookback for Label Placement: Number of bars to search for true extremes (default 20)
- The system searches within this period to find the actual lowest/highest MACD value
- Higher values analyze more history but may be slower; lower values are faster but may miss some extremes
Cross Quality Score
The script calculates a MACD cross quality score (0-100) that rates crossover quality based on:
- Cross angle (0-50 points): Steeper crosses = stronger signals
- Volume confirmation (0-25 points): Volume above average adds points
- Distance from zero line (0-25 points): Crosses near zero line are stronger
This score helps identify high-quality crossovers and can be used as a filter to only accept signals meeting minimum quality threshold.
Filtering System
Histogram Filter:
Requires histogram to be above zero for buy signals, below zero for sell signals. Ensures momentum alignment before generating signals.
Signal Strength Filter:
Requires minimum signal strength score for signals. Higher threshold = only strongest signals pass. This combines multiple confirmation factors into a single filter.
Cross Quality Filter:
Requires minimum cross quality score for signals. Rates crossover quality based on angle, volume, momentum, and distance from zero. Only signals meeting minimum quality threshold will be generated.
All filters use the pattern: filterResult = not filterEnabled OR conditionMet. This means if a filter is disabled, it always passes (returns true). Filters can be combined, and all must pass for a signal to fire.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
The script can display MACD from a secondary (higher) timeframe and use it for confirmation. When secondary timeframe confirmation is enabled, signals require the higher timeframe MACD to align (bullish/bearish) with the signal direction. This ensures signals align with the larger trend context, reducing counter-trend trades.
Secondary Timeframe MACD:
The secondary timeframe MACD uses the same calculation parameters (fast, slow, signal, MA type) as the main MACD but from a higher timeframe. This provides context for the current timeframe's MACD position relative to the larger trend. The secondary MACD lines are displayed on the chart when enabled.
Noise Filtering
Noise filtering hides small histogram movements below a threshold. This helps focus on significant moves and reduces chart clutter. When enabled, only histogram movements above the threshold are displayed. Typical threshold values are 0.1-0.5 for most instruments, depending on the instrument's price range and volatility.
Signal Debounce
Signal debounce prevents duplicate MACD cross signals within a short time period. Useful when MACD crosses back and forth quickly, creating multiple signals. Debounce ensures only one signal per period, reducing signal spam during choppy markets. This is separate from alert cooldown, which applies to all alert types.
Background Color Modes
The script offers three background color modes:
- Dynamic: Full MACD heatmap based on OB/OS conditions, confidence, and momentum. Provides rich visual feedback.
- Monotone: Soft neutral background but still allows overlays (OB/OS zones). Keeps the chart clean without overpowering candles.
- Off: No MACD background (only overlays and plots). Maximum chart cleanliness.
When OB/OS background colors are enabled, they are drawn on top of the main background to ensure visibility.
Statistics Table
A real-time statistics table displays current MACD values, signal strength, distance from zero line, secondary timeframe alignment, volume confirmation status, and all active filter statuses. The table dynamically adjusts to show only enabled features, keeping it clean and relevant. The table position can be configured (Top Left, Top Right, Bottom Left, Bottom Right).
Performance Statistics Table
An optional performance statistics table shows comprehensive filter diagnostics:
- Total buy/sell signals (raw crossover count before filters)
- Filtered buy/sell signals (signals that passed all filters)
- Overall pass rates (percentage of signals that passed filters)
- Rejected signals count
- Filter-by-filter rejection diagnostics showing which filters rejected how many signals
This table helps optimize filter settings by showing which filters are most restrictive and how they impact signal frequency. The diagnostics format shows rejections as "X B / Y S" (X buy signals rejected, Y sell signals rejected) or "Disabled" if the filter is not active.
Alert System
The script includes separate alert conditions for each signal type:
- MACD Cross: MACD line crosses above/below Signal line (with or without secondary confirmation)
- Zero-Line Cross: MACD crosses above/below zero
- Divergence: Regular and hidden divergence detections
- Secondary Timeframe: Higher timeframe MACD crosses
- Histogram MA Cross: Histogram crosses above/below its moving average
- Histogram Zero Cross: Histogram crosses above/below zero
- StochMACD: StochMACD overbought/oversold entries and %K/%D crosses
- Histogram BB: Histogram touches/breaks Bollinger Bands
- Volume Events: Volume climax and dry-up detections
- OB/OS: MACD entry/exit from overbought/oversold zones
- Strong Top/Bottom: sTop and sBottom signal detections
Each alert type has its own cooldown system to prevent alert spam. The cooldown requires a minimum number of bars between alerts of the same type, reducing duplicate alerts during volatile periods. Alert types can be filtered to only evaluate specific alert types (All, MACD Cross, Zero Line, Divergence, Secondary Timeframe, Histogram MA, Histogram Zero, StochMACD, Histogram BB, Volume Events, OB/OS, Strong Top/Bottom).
How Components Work Together
MACD crossovers provide the primary signal when the MACD line crosses the Signal line. Zero-line crosses indicate momentum shifts and can provide early warning signals. Divergences identify potential reversals before they occur.
Volume confirmation ensures signals occur with sufficient market participation, filtering out low-volume false breakouts. Histogram analysis tools (MA, Bollinger Bands, StochMACD) provide additional context for signal reliability and identify significant histogram zones.
Signal strength combines multiple confirmation factors into a single score, making it easy to filter for only the strongest signals. Cross quality score rates crossover quality to identify high-quality setups. Multi-timeframe confirmation ensures signals align with higher timeframe trends, reducing counter-trend trades.
Usage Instructions
Getting Started:
The default configuration shows MACD(12,26,9) with standard EMA calculations. Start with default settings and observe behavior, then customize settings to match your trading style. You can use configuration presets for quick setup based on your trading style.
Customizing MACD Parameters:
Adjust Fast Length (default 12), Slow Length (default 26), and Signal Length (default 9) based on your trading timeframe. Shorter periods (8,17,7) for faster signals, longer (15,30,12) for smoother signals. You can change the moving average type: EMA for responsiveness, RMA for smoothness, WMA for recent price emphasis.
Price Source Selection:
Choose Close (standard), or alternative sources (HL2, HLC3, OHLC4) for different sensitivity. HL2 uses the midpoint of the high-low range, HLC3 and OHLC4 incorporate more price information.
Histogram Smoothing:
Set smoothing to 1 for raw histogram (no smoothing), or increase (3-5) for smoother histogram that reduces noise. Higher smoothing reduces false signals but may delay signals slightly.
Percentage Mode:
Enable percentage mode when comparing MACD across instruments with different price levels. This normalizes MACD values, making them directly comparable.
Dynamic OB/OS Levels:
The dynamic thresholds automatically adapt to volatility. Adjust the multipliers (default 1.5) to fine-tune sensitivity: higher values (2.0-3.0) = more extreme thresholds (fewer signals), lower (1.0-1.5) = more frequent signals. Adjust the lookback period to control how quickly levels adapt. Enable OB/OS background colors for visual indication of extreme conditions.
Volume Confirmation:
Set volume threshold to 1.0 (default, effectively disabled) or higher (1.2-1.5) for standard confirmation. Higher values require more volume for confirmation. Set to 0.1 to completely disable volume filtering.
Filters:
Enable filters gradually to find your preferred balance. Start with histogram filter for basic momentum alignment, then add signal strength filter (threshold 50+) for moderate signals, then cross quality filter (threshold 50+) for high-quality crossovers. Combine filters for highest-quality signals but expect fewer signals.
Divergence:
Enable divergence detection and adjust pivot lookback parameters. Pivot-based divergence provides more accurate detection using actual pivot points. Hidden divergence is useful for trend-following strategies. Adjust range parameters to filter divergences by time window.
Zero-Line Crosses:
Zero-line cross alerts are automatically available when alerts are enabled. These provide early warning signals for momentum shifts.
Histogram Analysis Tools:
Enable Histogram Moving Average to see histogram trend direction. Enable Histogram Bollinger Bands to identify extreme histogram zones. Enable Stochastic MACD to normalize histogram to 0-100 scale for overbought/oversold identification.
Multi-Timeframe:
Enable secondary timeframe MACD to see higher timeframe context. Enable secondary confirmation to require higher timeframe alignment for signals.
Signal Strength:
Signal strength is automatically calculated and displayed in the statistics table. Use signal strength filter to only accept signals above a threshold (e.g., 50 for moderate, 70+ for strong signals only).
Smart Label Placement:
Configure label placement settings to control label appearance and quality:
- Label Strength Minimum (%): Set threshold (default 75%) to show only strong signals. Higher = fewer, stronger labels
- Label Spacing Multiplier: Adjust spacing (default 1.5x) for better distribution. Higher = more spacing between labels
- Recovery/Decline Confirm (%): Set confirmation requirement (default 15%). Higher = more confirmation, fewer labels
- Enforce Zero Line Polarity: Enable (default) to ensure Buy labels only appear when tracked extreme was below zero, Sell labels only when above zero
- Historical Lookback: Adjust search period (default 20 bars) for finding true extremes. Higher = more history analyzed
Cross Quality:
Cross quality score is automatically calculated for crossovers. Use cross quality filter to only accept high-quality crossovers (threshold 50+ for moderate, 70+ for high quality).
Alerts:
Set up alerts for your preferred signal types. Enable alert cooldown (default enabled, 5 bars) to prevent alert spam. Use alert type filter to only evaluate specific alert types (All, MACD Cross, Zero Line, Divergence, Secondary Timeframe, Histogram MA, Histogram Zero, StochMACD, Histogram BB, Volume Events, OB/OS, Strong Top/Bottom). Each signal type has its own alert condition, so you can be selective about which signals trigger alerts.
Visual Elements and Signal Markers
The script uses various visual markers to indicate signals and conditions:
- MACD Line: Green when above signal (bullish), red when below (bearish) if dynamic colors enabled. Optional black outline for enhanced visibility
- Signal Line: Orange line with optional black outline for enhanced visibility
- Histogram: Color-coded based on direction and momentum (green for bullish rising, lime for bullish falling, red for bearish falling, orange for bearish rising)
- Zero Line: Horizontal reference line at MACD = 0
- Fill to Zero: Green/red semi-transparent fill between MACD line and zero line showing bullish/bearish territory
- Fill Between OB/OS: Blue semi-transparent fill between overbought/oversold thresholds highlighting neutral zone
- OB/OS Background Colors: Background coloring when MACD enters overbought/oversold zones
- Background Colors: Dynamic or monotone backgrounds indicating MACD state, or custom chart background
- Divergence Labels: "🐂" for bullish, "🐻" for bearish, "H Bull" for hidden bullish, "H Bear" for hidden bearish
- Divergence Lines: Colored lines connecting pivot points when divergences are detected
- Volume Climax Markers: ⚡ symbol for extremely high volume
- Volume Dry-Up Markers: 💧 symbol for extremely low volume
- Buy/Sell Strength Labels: Show signal strength percentage (e.g., "Buy Strength: 75%")
- Strong Top/Bottom Labels: "sTop" and "sBottom" for extreme level recoveries
- Secondary MACD Lines: Purple lines showing higher timeframe MACD
- Histogram MA: Orange line showing histogram moving average
- Histogram BB: Blue bands around histogram showing extreme zones
- StochMACD Lines: %K and %D lines with overbought/oversold thresholds
- Regression Forecast: Dotted blue lines extending forward with optional confidence bands
Signal Priority and Interpretation
Signals are generated independently and can occur simultaneously. Higher-priority signals generally indicate stronger setups:
1. MACD Cross with Multiple Filters - Highest priority: Requires MACD crossover plus all enabled filters (histogram, signal strength, cross quality) and secondary timeframe confirmation if enabled. These are the most reliable signals.
2. Zero-Line Cross - High priority: Indicates momentum shift. Can provide early warning signals before MACD crosses the signal line.
3. Divergence Signals - Medium-High priority: Pivot-based divergence is more reliable than simple divergence. Hidden divergence indicates continuation rather than reversal.
4. MACD Cross with Basic Filters - Medium priority: MACD crosses signal line with basic histogram filter. Less reliable alone but useful when combined with other confirmations.
Best practice: Wait for multiple confirmations. For example, a MACD crossover combined with divergence, volume confirmation, and secondary timeframe alignment provides the strongest setup.
Chart Requirements
For proper script functionality and compliance with TradingView requirements, ensure your chart displays:
- Symbol name: The trading pair or instrument name should be visible
- Timeframe: The chart timeframe should be clearly displayed
- Script name: "Ultimate MACD " should be visible in the indicator title
These elements help traders understand what they're viewing and ensure proper script identification. The script automatically includes this information in the indicator title and chart labels.
Performance Considerations
The script is optimized for performance:
- Calculations use efficient Pine Script functions (ta.ema, ta.sma, etc.) which are optimized by TradingView
- Conditional execution: Features only calculate when enabled
- Label management: Old labels are automatically deleted to prevent accumulation
- Array management: Divergence label arrays are limited to prevent memory accumulation
The script should perform well on all timeframes. On very long historical data with many enabled features, performance may be slightly slower, but it remains usable.
Known Limitations and Considerations
- Dynamic OB/OS levels can vary significantly based on recent MACD volatility. In very volatile markets, levels may be wider; in calm markets, they may be narrower.
- Volume confirmation requires sufficient historical volume data. On new instruments or very short timeframes, volume calculations may be less reliable.
- Higher timeframe MACD uses request.security() which may have slight delays on some data feeds.
- Stochastic MACD requires the histogram to have sufficient history. Very short periods on new charts may produce less reliable StochMACD values initially.
- Divergence detection requires sufficient historical data to identify pivot points. Very short lookback periods may produce false positives.
Practical Use Cases
The indicator can be configured for different trading styles and timeframes:
Swing Trading:
Use MACD(12,26,9) with secondary timeframe confirmation. Enable divergence detection. Use signal strength filter (threshold 50+) and cross quality filter (threshold 50+) for higher-quality signals. Enable histogram analysis tools for additional context.
Day Trading:
Use MACD(8,17,7) or use "Day Trading" preset with minimal histogram smoothing for faster signals. Enable zero-line cross alerts for early signals. Use volume confirmation with threshold 1.2-1.5. Enable histogram MA for momentum tracking.
Trend Following:
Use MACD(12,26,9) or longer periods (15,30,12) for smoother signals. Enable secondary timeframe confirmation for trend alignment. Hidden divergence signals are useful for trend continuation entries. Use cross quality filter to identify high-quality crossovers.
Reversal Trading:
Focus on divergence detection (pivot-based for accuracy) combined with zero-line crosses. Enable volume confirmation. Use histogram Bollinger Bands to identify extreme histogram zones. Enable StochMACD for overbought/oversold identification.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Enable secondary timeframe MACD to see context from larger timeframes. For example, use daily MACD on hourly charts to understand the larger trend context. Enable secondary confirmation to require higher timeframe alignment for signals.
Practical Tips and Best Practices
Getting Started:
Start with default settings and observe MACD behavior. The default configuration (MACD 12,26,9 with EMA) is balanced and works well across different markets. After observing behavior, customize settings to match your trading style. Consider using configuration presets for quick setup.
Reducing Repainting:
All signals are based on confirmed bars, minimizing repainting. The script uses confirmed bar data for all calculations to ensure backtesting accuracy.
Signal Quality:
MACD crosses with multiple filters provide the highest-quality signals because they require alignment across multiple indicators. These signals have lower frequency but higher reliability. Use signal strength scores to identify the strongest signals (70+). Use cross quality scores to identify high-quality crossovers (70+).
Filter Combinations:
Start with histogram filter for basic momentum alignment, then add signal strength filter for moderate signals, then cross quality filter for high-quality crossovers. Combining all filters significantly reduces false signals but also reduces signal frequency. Find your balance based on your risk tolerance.
Volume Filtering:
Set volume threshold to 1.0 (default, effectively disabled) or lower to effectively disable volume filtering if you trade instruments with unreliable volume data or want to test without volume confirmation. Standard confirmation uses 1.2-1.5 threshold.
MACD Period Selection:
Standard MACD(12,26,9) provides balanced signals suitable for most trading. Shorter periods (8,17,7) for faster signals, longer (15,30,12) for smoother signals. Adjust based on your timeframe and trading style. Consider using configuration presets for optimized settings.
Moving Average Type:
EMA provides balanced responsiveness with smoothness. RMA is smoother and less responsive. WMA gives more weight to recent prices. SMA gives equal weight to all periods. Choose based on your preference for responsiveness vs. smoothness.
Divergence:
Pivot-based divergence is more reliable than simple divergence because it uses actual pivot points. Hidden divergence indicates continuation rather than reversal, useful for trend-following strategies. Adjust pivot lookback parameters to control sensitivity.
Dynamic Thresholds:
Dynamic OB/OS thresholds automatically adapt to volatility. In volatile markets, thresholds widen; in calm markets, they narrow. Adjust the multipliers to fine-tune sensitivity. Enable OB/OS background colors for visual indication.
Zero-Line Crosses:
Zero-line crosses indicate momentum shifts and can provide early warning signals before MACD crosses the signal line. Enable alerts for zero-line crosses to catch these early signals.
Alert Management:
Enable alert cooldown (default enabled, 5 bars) to prevent alert spam. Use alert type filter to only evaluate specific alert types. Signal debounce (default enabled, 3 bars) prevents duplicate MACD cross signals during choppy markets.
Technical Specifications
- Pine Script Version: v6
- Indicator Type: Non-overlay (displays in separate panel below price chart)
- Repainting Behavior: Minimal - all signals are based on confirmed bars, ensuring accurate backtesting results
- Performance: Optimized with conditional execution. Features only calculate when enabled.
- Compatibility: Works on all timeframes (1 minute to 1 month) and all instruments (stocks, forex, crypto, futures, etc.)
- Edge Case Handling: All calculations include safety checks for division by zero, NA values, and boundary conditions. Alert cooldowns and signal debounce handle edge cases where conditions never occurred or values are NA.
Technical Notes
- All MACD values respect percentage mode conversion when enabled
- Volume confirmation uses cached volume SMA for performance
- Label arrays (divergence) are automatically limited to prevent memory accumulation
- Background coloring: OB/OS backgrounds are drawn on top of main background to ensure visibility
- All calculations are optimized with conditional execution - features only calculate when enabled (performance optimization)
- Signal strength calculation combines multiple factors into a single score for easy filtering
- Cross quality calculation rates crossover quality based on angle, volume, and distance from zero
- Secondary timeframe MACD uses request.security() for higher timeframe data access
- Histogram analysis features (Bollinger Bands, MA, StochMACD) provide additional context beyond basic MACD signals
- Statistics table dynamically adjusts to show only enabled features, keeping it clean and relevant
- Divergence detection uses MACD line (not histogram) for more reliable signals
- Configuration presets automatically optimize MACD parameters for different trading styles
- Smart label placement: Labels appear on current bar at confirmation, using strength from tracked extreme point
- Label spacing uses effective distance (base distance × spacing multiplier) for better distribution
- Zero line polarity enforcement ensures Buy labels only appear when tracked extreme MACD < 0, Sell labels only when tracked extreme MACD > 0
- Label finalization requires MACD exit from OB/OS zone, sufficient bars passed, and recovery/decline percentage confirmation
- Strength-based filtering automatically compares and keeps only the strongest label when multiple signals are close together
- Enhanced visualization: Line outlines drawn behind main lines for superior visibility (black default, configurable)
- Enhanced visualization: Fill between MACD and zero line provides instant visual feedback (green above, red below)
- Enhanced visualization: Fill between OB/OS thresholds highlights neutral zone when dynamic levels are active
- Custom chart background overrides background mode when enabled, allowing theme-consistent indicator panels
Luxy BIG beautiful Dynamic ORBThis is an advanced Opening Range Breakout (ORB) indicator that tracks price breakouts from the first 5, 15, 30, and 60 minutes of the trading session. It provides complete trade management including entry signals, stop-loss placement, take-profit targets, and position sizing calculations.
The ORB strategy is based on the concept that the opening range of a trading session often acts as support/resistance, and breakouts from this range tend to lead to significant moves.
What Makes This Different?
Most ORB indicators simply draw horizontal lines and leave you to figure out the rest. This indicator goes several steps further:
Multi-Stage Tracking
Instead of just one ORB timeframe, this tracks FOUR simultaneously (5min, 15min, 30min, 60min). Each stage builds on the previous one, giving you multiple trading opportunities throughout the session.
Active Trade Management
When a breakout occurs, the indicator automatically calculates and displays entry price, stop-loss, and multiple take-profit targets. These lines extend forward and update in real-time until the trade completes.
Cycle Detection
Unlike indicators that only show the first breakout, this tracks the complete cycle: Breakout → Retest → Re-breakout. You can see when price returns to test the ORB level after breaking out (potential re-entry).
Failed Breakout Warning
If price breaks out but quickly returns inside the range (within a few bars), the label changes to "FAILED BREAK" - warning you to exit or avoid the trade.
Position Sizing Calculator
Built-in risk management that tells you exactly how many shares to buy based on your account size and risk tolerance. No more guessing or manual calculations.
Advanced Filtering
Optional filters for volume confirmation, trend alignment, and Fair Value Gaps (FVG) to reduce false signals and improve win rate.
Core Features Explained
### 1. Multi-Stage ORB Levels
The indicator builds four separate Opening Range levels:
ORB 5 - First 5 minutes (fastest signals, most volatile)
ORB 15 - First 15 minutes (balanced, most popular)
ORB 30 - First 30 minutes (slower, more reliable)
ORB 60 - First 60 minutes (slowest, most confirmed)
Each level is drawn as a horizontal range on your chart. As time progresses, the ranges expand to include more price action. You can enable or disable any stage and assign custom colors to each.
How it works: During the opening minutes, the indicator tracks the highest high and lowest low. Once the time period completes, those levels become your ORB high and low for that stage.
### 2. Breakout Detection
When price closes outside the ORB range, a label appears:
BREAK UP (green label above price) - Price closed above ORB High
BREAK DOWN (red label below price) - Price closed below ORB Low
The label shows which ORB stage triggered (ORB5, ORB15, etc.) and the cycle number if tracking multiple breakouts.
Important: Signals appear on bar close only - no repainting. What you see is what you get.
### 3. Retest Detection
After price breaks out and moves away, if it returns to test the ORB level, a "RETEST" label appears (orange). This indicates:
The original breakout level is now acting as support/resistance
Potential re-entry opportunity if you missed the first breakout
Confirmation that the level is significant
The indicator requires price to move a minimum distance away before considering it a valid retest (configurable in settings).
### 4. Failed Breakout Detection
If price breaks out but returns inside the ORB range within a few bars (before the breakout is "committed"), the original label changes to "FAILED BREAK" in orange.
This warns you:
The breakout lacked conviction
Consider exiting if already in the trade
Wait for better setup
Committed Breakout: The indicator tracks how many bars price stays outside the range. Only after staying outside for the minimum number of bars does it become a committed breakout that can be retested.
### 5. TP/SL Lines (Trade Management)
When a breakout occurs, colored horizontal lines appear showing:
Entry Line (cyan for long, orange for short) - Your entry price (the ORB level)
Stop Loss Line (red) - Where to exit if trade goes against you
TP1, TP2, TP3 Lines (same color as entry) - Profit targets at 1R, 2R, 3R
These lines extend forward as new bars form, making it easy to track your trade. When a target is hit, the line turns green and the label shows a checkmark.
Lines freeze (stop updating) when:
Stop loss is hit
The final enabled take-profit is hit
End of trading session (optional setting)
### 6. Position Sizing Dashboard
The dashboard (bottom-left corner by default) shows real-time information:
Current ORB stage and range size
Breakout status (Inside Range / Break Up / Break Down)
Volume confirmation (if filter enabled)
Trend alignment (if filter enabled)
Entry and Stop Loss prices
All enabled Take Profit levels with percentages
Risk/Reward ratio
Position sizing: Max shares to buy and total risk amount
Position Sizing Example:
If your account is $25,000 and you risk 1% per trade ($250), and the distance from entry to stop loss is $0.50, the calculator shows you can buy 500 shares (250 / 0.50 = 500).
### 7. FVG Filter (Fair Value Gap)
Fair Value Gaps are price inefficiencies - gaps left by strong momentum where one candle's high doesn't overlap with a previous candle's low (or vice versa).
When enabled, this filter:
Detects bullish and bearish FVGs
Draws semi-transparent boxes around these gaps
Only allows breakout signals if there's an FVG near the breakout level
Why this helps: FVGs indicate institutional activity. Breakouts through FVGs tend to be stronger and more reliable.
Proximity setting: Controls how close the FVG must be to the ORB level. 2.0x means the breakout can be within 2 times the FVG size - a reasonable default.
### 8. Volume & Trend Filters
Volume Filter:
Requires current volume to be above average (customizable multiplier). High volume breakouts are more likely to sustain.
Set minimum multiplier (e.g., 1.5x = 50% above average)
Set "strong volume" multiplier (e.g., 2.5x) that bypasses other filters
Dashboard shows current volume ratio
Trend Filter:
Only shows breakouts aligned with a higher timeframe trend. Choose from:
VWAP - Price above/below volume-weighted average
EMA - Price above/below exponential moving average
SuperTrend - ATR-based trend indicator
Combined modes (VWAP+EMA, VWAP+SuperTrend) for stricter filtering
### 9. Pullback Filter (Advanced)
Purpose:
Waits for price to pull back slightly after initial breakout before confirming the signal.
This reduces false breakouts from immediate reversals.
How it works:
- After breakout is detected, indicator waits for a small pullback (default 2%)
- Once pullback occurs AND price breaks out again, signal is confirmed
- If no pullback within timeout period (5 bars), signal is issued anyway
Settings:
Enable Pullback Filter: Turn this filter on/off
Pullback %: How much price must pull back (2% is balanced)
Timeout (bars): Max bars to wait for pullback (5 is standard)
When to use:
- Choppy markets with many fake breakouts
- When you want higher quality signals
- Combine with Volume filter for maximum confirmation
Trade-off:
- Better signal quality
- May miss some valid fast moves
- Slight entry delay
How to Use This Indicator
### For Beginners - Simple Setup
Add the indicator to your chart (5-minute or 15-minute timeframe recommended)
Leave all default settings - they work well for most stocks
Watch for BREAK UP or BREAK DOWN labels to appear
Check the dashboard for entry, stop loss, and targets
Use the position sizing to determine how many shares to buy
Basic Trading Plan:
Wait for a clear breakout label
Enter at the ORB level (or next candle open if you're late)
Place stop loss where the red line indicates
Take profit at TP1 (50% of position) and TP2 (remaining 50%)
### For Advanced Traders - Customized Setup
Choose which ORB stages to track (you might only want ORB15 and ORB30)
Enable filters: Volume (stocks) or Trend (trending markets)
Enable FVG filter for institutional confirmation
Set "Track Cycles" mode to catch retests and re-breakouts
Customize stop loss method (ATR for volatile stocks, ORB% for stable ones)
Adjust risk per trade and account size for accurate position sizing
Advanced Strategy Example:
Enable ORB15 only (disable others for cleaner chart)
Turn on Volume filter at 1.5x with Strong at 2.5x
Enable Trend filter using VWAP
Set Signal Mode to "Track Cycles" with Max 3 cycles
Wait for aligned breakouts (Volume + Trend + Direction)
Enter on retest if you missed the initial break
### Timeframe Recommendations
5-minute chart: Scalping, very active trading, crypto
15-minute chart: Day trading, balanced approach (most popular)
30-minute chart: Swing entries, less screen time
60-minute chart: Position trading, longer holds
The indicator works on any intraday timeframe, but ORB is fundamentally a day trading strategy. Daily charts don't make sense for ORB.
DEFAULT CONFIGURATION
ON by Default:
• All 4 ORB stages (5/15/30/60)
• Breakout Detection
• Retest Labels
• All TP levels (1/1.5/2/3)
• TP/SL Lines (Detailed mode)
• Dashboard (Bottom Left, Dark theme)
• Position Size Calculator
OFF by Default (Optional Filters):
• FVG Filter
• Pullback Filter
• Volume Filter
• Trend Filter
• HTF Bias Check
• Alerts
Recommended for Beginners:
• Leave all defaults
• Session Mode: Auto-Detect
• Signal Mode: Track Cycles
• Stop Method: ATR
• Add Volume Filter if trading stocks
Recommended for Advanced:
• Enable ORB15 + ORB30 only (disable 5 & 60)
• Enable: Volume + Trend + FVG
• Signal Mode: Track Cycles, Max 3
• Stop Method: ATR or Safer
• Enable HTF Daily bias check
## Settings Guide
The settings are organized into logical groups. Here's what each section controls:
### ORB COLORS Section
Show Edge Labels: Display "ORB 5", "ORB 15" labels at the right edge of the levels
Background: Fill the area between ORB high/low with color
Transparency: How see-through the background is (95% is nearly invisible)
Enable ORB 5/15/30/60: Turn each stage on or off individually
Colors: Assign colors to each ORB stage for easy identification
### SESSION SETTINGS Section
Session Mode: Choose trading session (Auto-Detect works for most instruments)
Custom Session Hours: Define your own hours if needed (format: HHMM-HHMM)
Auto-Detect uses the instrument's natural hours (stocks use exchange hours, crypto uses 24/7).
### BREAKOUT DETECTION Section
Enable Breakout Detection: Master switch for signals
Show Retest Labels: Display retest signals
Label Size: Visual size for all labels (Small recommended)
Enable FVG Filter: Require Fair Value Gap confirmation
Show FVG Boxes: Display the gap boxes on chart
Signal Mode: "First Only" = one signal per direction per day, "Track Cycles" = multiple signals
Max Cycles: How many breakout-retest cycles to track (6 is balanced)
Breakout Buffer: Extra distance required beyond ORB level (0.1-0.2% recommended)
Min Distance for Retest: How far price must move away before retest is valid (2% recommended)
Min Bars Outside ORB: Bars price must stay outside for committed breakout (2 is balanced)
### TARGETS & RISK Section
Enable Targets & Stop-Loss: Calculate and show trade management
TP1/TP2/TP3 checkboxes: Select which profit targets to display
Stop Method: How to calculate stop loss placement
- ATR: Based on volatility (best for most cases)
- ORB %: Fixed % of ORB range
- Swing: Recent swing high/low
- Safer: Widest of all methods
ATR Length & Multiplier: Controls ATR stop distance (14 period, 1.5x is standard)
ORB Stop %: Percentage beyond ORB for stop (20% is balanced)
Swing Bars: Lookback period for swing high/low (3 is recent)
### TP/SL LINES Section
Show TP/SL Lines: Display horizontal lines on chart
Label Format: "Short" = minimal text, "Detailed" = shows prices
Freeze Lines at EOD: Stop extending lines at session close
### DASHBOARD Section
Show Info Panel: Display the metrics dashboard
Theme: Dark or Light colors
Position: Where to place dashboard on chart
Toggle rows: Show/hide specific information rows
Calculate Position Size: Enable the position sizing calculator
Risk Mode: Risk fixed $ amount or % of account
Account Size: Your total trading capital
Risk %: Percentage to risk per trade (0.5-1% recommended)
### VOLUME FILTER Section
Enable Volume Filter: Require volume confirmation
MA Length: Average period (20 is standard)
Min Volume: Required multiplier (1.5x = 50% above average)
Strong Volume: Multiplier that bypasses other filters (2.5x)
### TREND FILTER Section
Enable Trend Filter: Require trend alignment
Trend Mode: Method to determine trend (VWAP is simple and effective)
Custom EMA Length: If using EMA mode (50 for swing, 20 for day trading)
SuperTrend settings: Period and Multiplier if using SuperTrend mode
### HIGHER TIMEFRAME Section
Check Daily Trend: Display higher timeframe bias in dashboard
Timeframe: What TF to check (D = daily, recommended)
Method: Price vs MA (stable) or Candle Direction (reactive)
MA Period: EMA length for Price vs MA method (20 is balanced)
Min Strength %: Minimum strength threshold for HTF bias to be considered
- For "Price vs MA": Minimum distance (%) from moving average
- For "Candle Direction": Minimum candle body size (%)
- 0.5% is balanced - increase for stricter filtering
- Lower values = more signals, higher values = only strong trends
### ALERTS Section
Enable Alerts: Master switch (must be ON to use any alerts)
Breakout Alerts: Notify on ORB breakouts
Retest Alerts: Notify when price retests after breakout
Failed Break Alerts: Notify on failed breakouts
Stage Complete Alerts: Notify when each ORB stage finishes forming
After enabling desired alert types, click "Create Alert" button, select this indicator, choose "Any alert() function call".
## Tips & Best Practices
### General Trading Tips
ORB works best on liquid instruments (stocks with good volume, major crypto pairs)
First hour of the session is most important - that's when ORB is forming
Breakouts WITH the trend have higher success rates - use the trend filter
Failed breakouts are common - use the "Min Bars Outside" setting to filter weak moves
Not every day produces good ORB setups - be patient and selective
### Position Sizing Best Practices
Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade
Use the built-in calculator - don't guess your position size
Update your account size monthly as it grows
Smaller accounts: use $ Amount mode for simplicity
Larger accounts: use % of Account mode for scaling
### Take Profit Strategy
Most traders use: 50% at TP1, 50% at TP2
Aggressive: Hold through TP1 for TP2 or TP3
Conservative: Full exit at TP1 (1:1 risk/reward)
After TP1 hits, consider moving stop to breakeven
TP3 rarely hits - only on strong trending days
### Filter Combinations
Maximum Quality: Volume + Trend + FVG (fewest signals, highest quality)
Balanced: Volume + Trend (good quality, reasonable frequency)
Active Trading: No filters or Volume only (many signals, lower quality)
Trending Markets: Trend filter essential (indices, crypto)
Range-Bound: Volume + FVG (avoid trend filter)
### Common Mistakes to Avoid
Chasing breakouts - wait for the bar to close, don't FOMO into wicks
Ignoring the stop loss - always use it, move it manually if needed
Over-leveraging - the calculator shows MAX shares, you can buy less
Trading every signal - quality > quantity, use filters
Not tracking results - keep a journal to see what works for YOU
## Pros and Cons
### Advantages
Complete all-in-one solution - from signal to position sizing
Multiple timeframes tracked simultaneously
Visual clarity - easy to see what's happening
Cycle tracking catches opportunities others miss
Built-in risk management eliminates guesswork
Customizable filters for different trading styles
No repainting - what you see is locked in
Works across multiple markets (stocks, forex, crypto)
### Limitations
Intraday strategy only - doesn't work on daily charts
Requires active monitoring during first 1-2 hours of session
Not suitable for after-hours or extended sessions by default
Can produce many signals in choppy markets (use filters)
Dashboard can be overwhelming for complete beginners
Performance depends on market conditions (trends vs ranges)
Requires understanding of risk management concepts
### Best For
Day traders who can watch the first 1-2 hours of market open
Traders who want systematic entry/exit rules
Those learning proper position sizing and risk management
Active traders comfortable with multiple signals per day
Anyone trading liquid instruments with clear sessions
### Not Ideal For
Swing traders holding multi-day positions
Set-and-forget / passive investors
Traders who can't watch market open
Complete beginners unfamiliar with trading concepts
Low volume / illiquid instruments
## Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why are no signals appearing?
A: Check that you're on an intraday timeframe (5min, 15min, etc.) and that the current time is within your session hours. Also verify that "Enable Breakout Detection" is ON and at least one ORB stage is enabled. If using filters, they might be blocking signals - try disabling them temporarily.
Q: What's the best ORB stage to use?
A: ORB15 (15 minutes) is most popular and balanced. ORB5 gives faster signals but more noise. ORB30 and ORB60 are slower but more reliable. Many traders use ORB15 + ORB30 together.
Q: Should I enable all the filters?
A: Start with no filters to see all signals. If too many false signals, add Volume filter first (stocks) or Trend filter (trending markets). FVG filter is most restrictive - use for maximum quality but fewer signals.
Q: How do I know which stop loss method to use?
A: ATR works for most cases - it adapts to volatility. Use ORB% if you want predictable stop placement. Swing is for respecting chart structure. Safer gives you the most room but largest risk.
Q: Can I use this for swing trading?
A: Not really - ORB is fundamentally an intraday strategy. The ranges reset each day. For swing trading, look at weekly support/resistance or moving averages instead.
Q: Why do TP/SL lines disappear sometimes?
A: Lines freeze (stop extending) when: stop loss is hit, the last enabled take-profit is hit, or end of session arrives (if "Freeze at EOD" is enabled). This is intentional - the trade is complete.
Q: What's the difference between "First Only" and "Track Cycles"?
A: "First Only" shows one breakout UP and one DOWN per day maximum - clean but might miss opportunities. "Track Cycles" shows breakout-retest-rebreak sequences - more signals but busier chart.
Q: Is position sizing accurate for options/forex?
A: The calculator is designed for shares (stocks). For options, ignore the share count and use the risk amount. For forex, you'll need to adapt the lot size calculation manually.
Q: How much capital do I need to use this?
A: The indicator works for any account size, but practical day trading typically requires $25,000 in the US due to Pattern Day Trader rules. Adjust the "Account Size" setting to match your capital.
Q: Can I backtest this strategy?
A: This is an indicator, not a strategy script, so it doesn't have built-in backtesting. You can visually review historical signals or code a strategy script using similar logic.
Q: Why does the dashboard show different entry price than the breakout label?
A: If you're looking at an old breakout, the ORB levels may have changed when the next stage completed. The dashboard always shows the CURRENT active range and trade setup.
Q: What's a good win rate to expect?
A: ORB strategies typically see 40-60% win rate depending on market conditions and filters used. The strategy relies on positive risk/reward ratios (2:1 or better) to be profitable even with moderate win rates.
Q: Does this work on crypto?
A: Yes, but crypto trades 24/7 so you need to define what "session start" means. Use Session Mode = Custom and set your preferred daily reset time (e.g., 0000-2359 UTC).
## Credits & Transparency
### Development
This indicator was developed with the assistance of AI technology to implement complex ORB trading logic.
The strategy concept, feature specifications, and trading logic were designed by the publisher. The implementation leverages modern development tools to ensure:
Clean, efficient, and maintainable code
Comprehensive error handling and input validation
Detailed documentation and user guidance
Performance optimization
### Trading Concepts
This indicator implements several public domain trading concepts:
Opening Range Breakout (ORB): Trading strategy popularized by Toby Crabel, Mark Fisher and many more talanted traders.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price imbalance concept from ICT methodology
SuperTrend: ATR-based trend indicator using public formula
Risk/Reward Ratio: Standard risk management principle
All mathematical formulas and technical concepts used are in the public domain.
### Pine Script
Uses standard TradingView built-in functions:
ta.ema(), ta.atr(), ta.vwap(), ta.highest(), ta.lowest(), request.security()
No external libraries or proprietary code from other authors.
## Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance shown in examples is not indicative of future results.
The indicator provides signals and calculations, but trading decisions are solely your responsibility. Always:
Test strategies on paper before using real money
Never risk more than you can afford to lose
Understand that all trading involves risk
Consider seeking advice from a licensed financial advisor
The publisher makes no guarantees regarding accuracy, profitability, or performance. Use at your own risk.
---
Version: 3.0
Pine Script Version: v6
Last Updated: October 2024
For support, questions, or suggestions, please comment below or send a private message.
---
Happy trading, and remember: consistent risk management beats perfect entry timing every time.
light_logLight Log - A Defensive Programming Library for Pine Script
Overview
The Light Log library transforms Pine Script development by introducing structured logging and defensive programming patterns typically found in enterprise languages like C#. This library addresses a fundamental challenge in Pine Script: the lack of sophisticated error handling and debugging tools that developers expect when building complex trading systems.
At its core, Light Log provides three transformative capabilities that work together to create more reliable and maintainable code. First, it wraps all native Pine Script types in error-aware containers, allowing values to carry validation state alongside their data. Second, it offers a comprehensive logging system with severity levels and conditional rendering. Third, it includes defensive programming utilities that catch errors early and make code self-documenting.
The Philosophy of Errors as Values
Traditional Pine Script error handling relies on runtime errors that halt execution, making it difficult to build resilient systems that can gracefully handle edge cases. Light Log introduces a paradigm shift by treating errors as first-class values that flow through your program alongside regular data.
When you wrap a value using Light Log's type system, you're not just storing data – you're creating a container that can carry both the value and its validation state. For example, when you call myNumber.INT() , you receive an INT object that contains both the integer value and a Log object that can describe any issues with that value. This approach, inspired by functional programming languages, allows errors to propagate through calculations without causing immediate failures.
Consider how this changes error handling in practice. Instead of a calculation failing catastrophically when it encounters invalid input, it can produce a result object that contains both the computed value (which might be na) and a detailed log explaining what went wrong. Subsequent operations can check has_error() to decide whether to proceed or handle the error condition gracefully.
The Typed Wrapper System
Light Log provides typed wrappers for every native Pine Script type: INT, FLOAT, BOOL, STRING, COLOR, LINE, LABEL, BOX, TABLE, CHART_POINT, POLYLINE, and LINEFILL. These wrappers serve multiple purposes beyond simple value storage.
Each wrapper type contains two fields: the value field v holds the actual data, while the error field e contains a Log object that tracks the value's validation state. This dual nature enables powerful programming patterns. You can perform operations on wrapped values and accumulate error information along the way, creating an audit trail of how values were processed.
The wrapper system includes convenient methods for converting between wrapped and unwrapped values. The extension methods like INT() , FLOAT() , etc., make it easy to wrap existing values, while the from_INT() , from_FLOAT() methods extract the underlying values when needed. The has_error() method provides a consistent interface for checking whether any wrapped value has encountered issues during processing.
The Log Object: Your Debugging Companion
The Log object represents the heart of Light Log's debugging capabilities. Unlike simple string concatenation for error messages, the Log object provides a structured approach to building, modifying, and rendering diagnostic information.
Each Log object carries three essential pieces of information: an error type (info, warning, error, or runtime_error), a message string that can be built incrementally, and an active flag that controls conditional rendering. This structure enables sophisticated logging patterns where you can build up detailed diagnostic information throughout your script's execution and decide later whether and how to display it.
The Log object's methods support fluent chaining, allowing you to build complex messages in a readable way. The write() and write_line() methods append text to the log, while new_line() adds formatting. The clear() method resets the log for reuse, and the rendering methods ( render_now() , render_condition() , and the general render() ) control when and how messages appear.
Defensive Programming Made Easy
Light Log's argument validation functions transform how you write defensive code. Instead of cluttering your functions with verbose validation logic, you can use concise, self-documenting calls that make your intentions clear.
The argument_error() function provides strict validation that halts execution when conditions aren't met – perfect for catching programming errors early. For less critical issues, argument_log_warning() and argument_log_error() record problems without stopping execution, while argument_log_info() provides debug visibility into your function's behavior.
These functions follow a consistent pattern: they take a condition to check, the function name, the argument name, and a descriptive message. This consistency makes error messages predictable and helpful, automatically formatting them to show exactly where problems occurred.
Building Modular, Reusable Code
Light Log encourages a modular approach to Pine Script development by providing tools that make functions more self-contained and reliable. When functions validate their inputs and return wrapped values with error information, they become true black boxes that can be safely composed into larger systems.
The void_return() function addresses Pine Script's requirement that all code paths return a value, even in error handling branches. This utility function provides a clean way to satisfy the compiler while making it clear that a particular code path should never execute.
The static log pattern, initialized with init_static_log() , enables module-wide error tracking. You can create a persistent Log object that accumulates information across multiple function calls, building a comprehensive diagnostic report that helps you understand complex behaviors in your indicators and strategies.
Real-World Applications
In practice, Light Log shines when building sophisticated trading systems. Imagine developing a complex indicator that processes multiple data streams, performs statistical calculations, and generates trading signals. With Light Log, each processing stage can validate its inputs, perform calculations, and pass along both results and diagnostic information.
For example, a moving average calculation might check that the period is positive, that sufficient data exists, and that the input series contains valid values. Instead of failing silently or throwing runtime errors, it can return a FLOAT object that contains either the calculated average or a detailed explanation of why the calculation couldn't be performed.
Strategy developers benefit even more from Light Log's capabilities. Complex entry and exit logic often involves multiple conditions that must all be satisfied. With Light Log, each condition check can contribute to a comprehensive log that explains exactly why a trade was or wasn't taken, making strategy debugging and optimization much more straightforward.
Performance Considerations
While Light Log adds a layer of abstraction over raw Pine Script values, its design minimizes performance impact. The wrapper objects are lightweight, containing only two fields. The logging operations only consume resources when actually rendered, and the conditional rendering system ensures that production code can run with logging disabled for maximum performance.
The library follows Pine Script best practices for performance, using appropriate data structures and avoiding unnecessary operations. The var keyword in init_static_log() ensures that persistent logs don't create new objects on every bar, maintaining efficiency even in real-time calculations.
Getting Started
Adopting Light Log in your Pine Script projects is straightforward. Import the library, wrap your critical values, add validation to your functions, and use Log objects to track important events. Start small by adding logging to a single function, then expand as you see the benefits of better error visibility and code organization.
Remember that Light Log is designed to grow with your needs. You can use as much or as little of its functionality as makes sense for your project. Even simple uses, like adding argument validation to key functions, can significantly improve code reliability and debugging ease.
Transform your Pine Script development experience with Light Log – because professional trading systems deserve professional development tools.
Light Log Technical Deep Dive: Advanced Patterns and Architecture
Understanding Errors as Values
The concept of "errors as values" represents a fundamental shift in how we think about error handling in Pine Script. In traditional Pine Script development, errors are events – they happen at a specific moment in time and immediately interrupt program flow. Light Log transforms errors into data – they become information that flows through your program just like any other value.
This transformation has profound implications. When errors are values, they can be stored, passed between functions, accumulated, transformed, and inspected. They become part of your program's data flow rather than exceptions to it. This approach, popularized by languages like Rust with its Result type and Haskell with its Either monad, brings functional programming's elegance to Pine Script.
Consider a practical example. Traditional Pine Script might calculate a momentum indicator like this:
momentum = close - close
If period is invalid or if there isn't enough historical data, this calculation might produce na or cause subtle bugs. With Light Log's approach:
calculate_momentum(src, period)=>
result = src.FLOAT()
if period <= 0
result.e.write("Invalid period: must be positive", true, ErrorType.error)
result.v := na
else if bar_index < period
result.e.write("Insufficient data: need " + str.tostring(period) + " bars", true, ErrorType.warning)
result.v := na
else
result.v := src - src
result.e.write("Momentum calculated successfully", false, ErrorType.info)
result
Now the function returns not just a value but a complete computational result that includes diagnostic information. Calling code can make intelligent decisions based on both the value and its associated metadata.
The Monad Pattern in Pine Script
While Pine Script lacks the type system features to implement true monads, Light Log brings monadic thinking to Pine Script development. The wrapped types (INT, FLOAT, etc.) act as computational contexts that carry both values and metadata through a series of transformations.
The key insight of monadic programming is that you can chain operations while automatically propagating context. In Light Log, this context is the error state. When you have a FLOAT that contains an error, operations on that FLOAT can check the error state and decide whether to proceed or propagate the error.
This pattern enables what functional programmers call "railway-oriented programming" – your code follows a success track when all is well but can switch to an error track when problems occur. Both tracks lead to the same destination (a result with error information), but they take different paths based on the validity of intermediate values.
Composable Error Handling
Light Log's design encourages composition – building complex functionality from simpler, well-tested components. Each component can validate its inputs, perform its calculation, and return a result with appropriate error information. Higher-level functions can then combine these results intelligently.
Consider building a complex trading signal from multiple indicators:
generate_signal(src, fast_period, slow_period, signal_period) =>
log = init_static_log(ErrorType.info)
// Calculate components with error tracking
fast_ma = calculate_ma(src, fast_period)
slow_ma = calculate_ma(src, slow_period)
// Check for errors in components
if fast_ma.has_error()
log.write_line("Fast MA error: " + fast_ma.e.message, true)
if slow_ma.has_error()
log.write_line("Slow MA error: " + slow_ma.e.message, true)
// Proceed with calculation if no errors
signal = 0.0.FLOAT()
if not (fast_ma.has_error() or slow_ma.has_error())
macd_line = fast_ma.v - slow_ma.v
signal_line = calculate_ma(macd_line, signal_period)
if signal_line.has_error()
log.write_line("Signal line error: " + signal_line.e.message, true)
signal.e := log
else
signal.v := macd_line - signal_line.v
log.write("Signal generated successfully")
else
signal.e := log
signal.v := na
signal
This composable approach makes complex calculations more reliable and easier to debug. Each component is responsible for its own validation and error reporting, and the composite function orchestrates these components while maintaining comprehensive error tracking.
The Static Log Pattern
The init_static_log() function introduces a powerful pattern for maintaining state across function calls. In Pine Script, the var keyword creates variables that persist across bars but are initialized only once. Light Log leverages this to create logging objects that can accumulate information throughout a script's execution.
This pattern is particularly valuable for debugging complex strategies where you need to understand behavior across multiple bars. You can create module-level logs that track important events:
// Module-level diagnostic log
diagnostics = init_static_log(ErrorType.info)
// Track strategy decisions across bars
check_entry_conditions() =>
diagnostics.clear() // Start fresh each bar
diagnostics.write_line("Bar " + str.tostring(bar_index) + " analysis:")
if close > sma(close, 20)
diagnostics.write_line("Price above SMA20", false)
else
diagnostics.write_line("Price below SMA20 - no entry", true, ErrorType.warning)
if volume > sma(volume, 20) * 1.5
diagnostics.write_line("Volume surge detected", false)
else
diagnostics.write_line("Normal volume", false)
// Render diagnostics based on verbosity setting
if debug_mode
diagnostics.render_now()
Advanced Validation Patterns
Light Log's argument validation functions enable sophisticated precondition checking that goes beyond simple null checks. You can implement complex validation logic while keeping your code readable:
validate_price_data(open_val, high_val, low_val, close_val) =>
argument_error(na(open_val) or na(high_val) or na(low_val) or na(close_val),
"validate_price_data", "OHLC values", "contain na values")
argument_error(high_val < low_val,
"validate_price_data", "high/low", "high is less than low")
argument_error(close_val > high_val or close_val < low_val,
"validate_price_data", "close", "is outside high/low range")
argument_log_warning(high_val == low_val,
"validate_price_data", "high/low", "are equal (no range)")
This validation function documents its requirements clearly and fails fast with helpful error messages when assumptions are violated. The mix of errors (which halt execution) and warnings (which allow continuation) provides fine-grained control over how strict your validation should be.
Performance Optimization Strategies
While Light Log adds abstraction, careful design minimizes overhead. Understanding Pine Script's execution model helps you use Light Log efficiently.
Pine Script executes once per bar, so operations that seem expensive in traditional programming might have negligible impact. However, when building real-time systems, every optimization matters. Light Log provides several patterns for efficient use:
Lazy Evaluation: Log messages are only built when they'll be rendered. Use conditional logging to avoid string concatenation in production:
if debug_mode
log.write_line("Calculated value: " + str.tostring(complex_calculation))
Selective Wrapping: Not every value needs error tracking. Wrap values at API boundaries and critical calculation points, but use raw values for simple operations:
// Wrap at boundaries
input_price = close.FLOAT()
validated_period = validate_period(input_period).INT()
// Use raw values internally
sum = 0.0
for i = 0 to validated_period.v - 1
sum += close
Error Propagation: When errors occur early, avoid expensive calculations:
process_data(input) =>
validated = validate_input(input)
if validated.has_error()
validated // Return early with error
else
// Expensive processing only if valid
perform_complex_calculation(validated)
Integration Patterns
Light Log integrates smoothly with existing Pine Script code. You can adopt it incrementally, starting with critical functions and expanding coverage as needed.
Boundary Validation: Add Light Log at the boundaries of your system – where user input enters and where final outputs are produced. This catches most errors while minimizing changes to existing code.
Progressive Enhancement: Start by adding argument validation to existing functions. Then wrap return values. Finally, add comprehensive logging. Each step improves reliability without requiring a complete rewrite.
Testing and Debugging: Use Light Log's conditional rendering to create debug modes for your scripts. Production users see clean output while developers get detailed diagnostics:
// User input for debug mode
debug = input.bool(false, "Enable debug logging")
// Conditional diagnostic output
if debug
diagnostics.render_now()
else
diagnostics.render_condition() // Only shows errors/warnings
Future-Proofing Your Code
Light Log's patterns prepare your code for Pine Script's evolution. As Pine Script adds more sophisticated features, code that uses structured error handling and defensive programming will adapt more easily than code that relies on implicit assumptions.
The type wrapper system, in particular, positions your code to take advantage of potential future features or more sophisticated type inference. By thinking in terms of wrapped values and error propagation today, you're building code that will remain maintainable and extensible tomorrow.
Light Log doesn't just make your Pine Script better today – it prepares it for the trading systems you'll need to build tomorrow.
Library "light_log"
A lightweight logging and defensive programming library for Pine Script.
Designed for modular and extensible scripts, this utility provides structured runtime validation,
conditional logging, and reusable `Log` objects for centralized error propagation.
It also introduces a typed wrapping system for all native Pine values (e.g., `INT`, `FLOAT`, `LABEL`),
allowing values to carry errors alongside data. This enables functional-style flows with built-in
validation tracking, error detection (`has_error()`), and fluent chaining.
Inspired by structured logging patterns found in systems like C#, it reduces boilerplate,
enforces argument safety, and encourages clean, maintainable code architecture.
method INT(self, error_type)
Wraps an `int` value into an `INT` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The raw `int` value to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: An `INT` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method FLOAT(self, error_type)
Wraps a `float` value into a `FLOAT` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series float, simple float, input float, const float
Parameters:
self (float) : The raw `float` value to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `FLOAT` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method BOOL(self, error_type)
Wraps a `bool` value into a `BOOL` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series bool, simple bool, input bool, const bool
Parameters:
self (bool) : The raw `bool` value to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `BOOL` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method STRING(self, error_type)
Wraps a `string` value into a `STRING` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series string, simple string, input string, const string
Parameters:
self (string) : The raw `string` value to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `STRING` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method COLOR(self, error_type)
Wraps a `color` value into a `COLOR` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series color, simple color, input color, const color
Parameters:
self (color) : The raw `color` value to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `COLOR` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method LINE(self, error_type)
Wraps a `line` object into a `LINE` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series line
Parameters:
self (line) : The raw `line` object to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `LINE` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method LABEL(self, error_type)
Wraps a `label` object into a `LABEL` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series label
Parameters:
self (label) : The raw `label` object to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `LABEL` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method BOX(self, error_type)
Wraps a `box` object into a `BOX` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series box
Parameters:
self (box) : The raw `box` object to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `BOX` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method TABLE(self, error_type)
Wraps a `table` object into a `TABLE` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series table
Parameters:
self (table) : The raw `table` object to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `TABLE` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method CHART_POINT(self, error_type)
Wraps a `chart.point` value into a `CHART_POINT` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: chart.point
Parameters:
self (chart.point) : The raw `chart.point` value to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `CHART_POINT` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method POLYLINE(self, error_type)
Wraps a `polyline` object into a `POLYLINE` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series polyline, series polyline, series polyline, series polyline
Parameters:
self (polyline) : The raw `polyline` object to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `POLYLINE` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method LINEFILL(self, error_type)
Wraps a `linefill` object into a `LINEFILL` struct with an optional log severity.
Namespace types: series linefill
Parameters:
self (linefill) : The raw `linefill` object to wrap.
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional severity level to associate with the log. Default is `ErrorType.error`.
Returns: A `LINEFILL` object containing the value and a default Log instance.
method from_INT(self)
Extracts the integer value from an INT wrapper.
Namespace types: INT
Parameters:
self (INT) : The wrapped INT instance.
Returns: The underlying `int` value.
method from_FLOAT(self)
Extracts the float value from a FLOAT wrapper.
Namespace types: FLOAT
Parameters:
self (FLOAT) : The wrapped FLOAT instance.
Returns: The underlying `float` value.
method from_BOOL(self)
Extracts the boolean value from a BOOL wrapper.
Namespace types: BOOL
Parameters:
self (BOOL) : The wrapped BOOL instance.
Returns: The underlying `bool` value.
method from_STRING(self)
Extracts the string value from a STRING wrapper.
Namespace types: STRING
Parameters:
self (STRING) : The wrapped STRING instance.
Returns: The underlying `string` value.
method from_COLOR(self)
Extracts the color value from a COLOR wrapper.
Namespace types: COLOR
Parameters:
self (COLOR) : The wrapped COLOR instance.
Returns: The underlying `color` value.
method from_LINE(self)
Extracts the line object from a LINE wrapper.
Namespace types: LINE
Parameters:
self (LINE) : The wrapped LINE instance.
Returns: The underlying `line` object.
method from_LABEL(self)
Extracts the label object from a LABEL wrapper.
Namespace types: LABEL
Parameters:
self (LABEL) : The wrapped LABEL instance.
Returns: The underlying `label` object.
method from_BOX(self)
Extracts the box object from a BOX wrapper.
Namespace types: BOX
Parameters:
self (BOX) : The wrapped BOX instance.
Returns: The underlying `box` object.
method from_TABLE(self)
Extracts the table object from a TABLE wrapper.
Namespace types: TABLE
Parameters:
self (TABLE) : The wrapped TABLE instance.
Returns: The underlying `table` object.
method from_CHART_POINT(self)
Extracts the chart.point from a CHART_POINT wrapper.
Namespace types: CHART_POINT
Parameters:
self (CHART_POINT) : The wrapped CHART_POINT instance.
Returns: The underlying `chart.point` value.
method from_POLYLINE(self)
Extracts the polyline object from a POLYLINE wrapper.
Namespace types: POLYLINE
Parameters:
self (POLYLINE) : The wrapped POLYLINE instance.
Returns: The underlying `polyline` object.
method from_LINEFILL(self)
Extracts the linefill object from a LINEFILL wrapper.
Namespace types: LINEFILL
Parameters:
self (LINEFILL) : The wrapped LINEFILL instance.
Returns: The underlying `linefill` object.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the INT wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: INT
Parameters:
self (INT) : The INT instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the FLOAT wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: FLOAT
Parameters:
self (FLOAT) : The FLOAT instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the BOOL wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: BOOL
Parameters:
self (BOOL) : The BOOL instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the STRING wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: STRING
Parameters:
self (STRING) : The STRING instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the COLOR wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: COLOR
Parameters:
self (COLOR) : The COLOR instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the LINE wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: LINE
Parameters:
self (LINE) : The LINE instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the LABEL wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: LABEL
Parameters:
self (LABEL) : The LABEL instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the BOX wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: BOX
Parameters:
self (BOX) : The BOX instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the TABLE wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: TABLE
Parameters:
self (TABLE) : The TABLE instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the CHART_POINT wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: CHART_POINT
Parameters:
self (CHART_POINT) : The CHART_POINT instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the POLYLINE wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: POLYLINE
Parameters:
self (POLYLINE) : The POLYLINE instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
method has_error(self)
Returns true if the LINEFILL wrapper has an active log entry.
Namespace types: LINEFILL
Parameters:
self (LINEFILL) : The LINEFILL instance to check.
Returns: True if an error or message is active in the log.
void_return()
Utility function used when a return is syntactically required but functionally unnecessary.
Returns: Nothing. Function never executes its body.
argument_error(condition, function, argument, message)
Throws a runtime error when a condition is met. Used for strict argument validation.
Parameters:
condition (bool) : Boolean expression that triggers the runtime error.
function (string) : Name of the calling function (for formatting).
argument (string) : Name of the problematic argument.
message (string) : Description of the error cause.
Returns: Never returns. Halts execution if the condition is true.
argument_log_info(condition, function, argument, message)
Logs an informational message when a condition is met. Used for optional debug visibility.
Parameters:
condition (bool) : Boolean expression that triggers the log.
function (string) : Name of the calling function.
argument (string) : Argument name being referenced.
message (string) : Informational message to log.
Returns: Nothing. Logs if the condition is true.
argument_log_warning(condition, function, argument, message)
Logs a warning when a condition is met. Non-fatal but highlights potential issues.
Parameters:
condition (bool) : Boolean expression that triggers the warning.
function (string) : Name of the calling function.
argument (string) : Argument name being referenced.
message (string) : Warning message to log.
Returns: Nothing. Logs if the condition is true.
argument_log_error(condition, function, argument, message)
Logs an error message when a condition is met. Does not halt execution.
Parameters:
condition (bool) : Boolean expression that triggers the error log.
function (string) : Name of the calling function.
argument (string) : Argument name being referenced.
message (string) : Error message to log.
Returns: Nothing. Logs if the condition is true.
init_static_log(error_type, message, active)
Initializes a persistent (var) Log object. Ideal for global logging in scripts or modules.
Parameters:
error_type (series ErrorType) : Initial severity level (required).
message (string) : Optional starting message string. Default value of ("").
active (bool) : Whether the log should be flagged active on initialization. Default value of (false).
Returns: A static Log object with the given parameters.
method new_line(self)
Appends a newline character to the Log message. Useful for separating entries during chained writes.
Namespace types: Log
Parameters:
self (Log) : The Log instance to modify.
Returns: The updated Log object with a newline appended.
method write(self, message, flag_active, error_type)
Appends a message to a Log object without a newline. Updates severity and active state if specified.
Namespace types: Log
Parameters:
self (Log) : The Log instance being modified.
message (string) : The text to append to the log.
flag_active (bool) : Whether to activate the log for conditional rendering. Default value of (false).
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional override for the severity level. Default value of (na).
Returns: The updated Log object.
method write_line(self, message, flag_active, error_type)
Appends a message to a Log object, prefixed with a newline for clarity.
Namespace types: Log
Parameters:
self (Log) : The Log instance being modified.
message (string) : The text to append to the log.
flag_active (bool) : Whether to activate the log for conditional rendering. Default value of (false).
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional override for the severity level. Default value of (na).
Returns: The updated Log object.
method clear(self, flag_active, error_type)
Clears a Log object’s message and optionally reactivates it. Can also update the error type.
Namespace types: Log
Parameters:
self (Log) : The Log instance being cleared.
flag_active (bool) : Whether to activate the log after clearing. Default value of (false).
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional new error type to assign. If not provided, the previous type is retained. Default value of (na).
Returns: The cleared Log object.
method render_condition(self, flag_active, error_type)
Conditionally renders the log if it is active. Allows overriding error type and controlling active state afterward.
Namespace types: Log
Parameters:
self (Log) : The Log instance to evaluate and render.
flag_active (bool) : Whether to activate the log after rendering. Default value of (false).
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional error type override. Useful for contextual formatting just before rendering. Default value of (na).
Returns: The updated Log object.
method render_now(self, flag_active, error_type)
Immediately renders the log regardless of `active` state. Allows overriding error type and active flag.
Namespace types: Log
Parameters:
self (Log) : The Log instance to render.
flag_active (bool) : Whether to activate the log after rendering. Default value of (false).
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional error type override. Allows dynamic severity adjustment at render time. Default value of (na).
Returns: The updated Log object.
render(self, condition, flag_active, error_type)
Renders the log conditionally or unconditionally. Allows full control over render behavior.
Parameters:
self (Log) : The Log instance to render.
condition (bool) : If true, renders only if the log is active. If false, always renders. Default value of (false).
flag_active (bool) : Whether to activate the log after rendering. Default value of (false).
error_type (series ErrorType) : Optional error type override passed to the render methods. Default value of (na).
Returns: The updated Log object.
Log
A structured object used to store and render logging messages.
Fields:
error_type (series ErrorType) : The severity level of the message (from the ErrorType enum).
message (series string) : The text of the log message.
active (series bool) : Whether the log should trigger rendering when conditionally evaluated.
INT
A wrapped integer type with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series int) : The underlying `int` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
FLOAT
A wrapped float type with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series float) : The underlying `float` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
BOOL
A wrapped boolean type with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series bool) : The underlying `bool` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
STRING
A wrapped string type with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series string) : The underlying `string` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
COLOR
A wrapped color type with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series color) : The underlying `color` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
LINE
A wrapped line object with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series line) : The underlying `line` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
LABEL
A wrapped label object with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series label) : The underlying `label` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
BOX
A wrapped box object with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series box) : The underlying `box` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
TABLE
A wrapped table object with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series table) : The underlying `table` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
CHART_POINT
A wrapped chart point with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (chart.point) : The underlying `chart.point` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
POLYLINE
A wrapped polyline object with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series polyline) : The underlying `polyline` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
LINEFILL
A wrapped linefill object with attached logging for validation or tracing.
Fields:
v (series linefill) : The underlying `linefill` value.
e (Log) : Optional log object describing validation status or error context.
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
Fibonacci Optimal Entry Zone [OTE] (Zeiierman)█ Overview
Fibonacci Optimal Entry Zone (Zeiierman) is a high-precision market structure tool designed to help traders identify ideal entry zones during trending markets. Built on the principles of Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracements, this indicator highlights key areas where price is most likely to react — specifically within the "Golden Zone" (between the 50% and 61.8% retracement).
It tracks structural pivot shifts (CHoCH) and dynamically adjusts Fibonacci levels based on real-time swing tracking. Whether you're trading breakouts, pullbacks, or optimal entries, this tool brings unparalleled clarity to structure-based strategies.
Ideal for traders who rely on confluence, this indicator visually synchronizes swing highs/lows, market structure shifts, Fibonacci retracement levels, and trend alignment — all without clutter or lag.
⚪ The Structural Assumption
Price moves in waves, but key retracements often lead to continuation or reversal — especially when aligned with structure breaks and trend shifts.
The Optimal Entry Zone captures this behavior by anchoring Fibonacci levels between recent swing extremes. The most powerful area — the Golden Zone — marks where institutional re-entry is likely, providing traders with a sniper-like roadmap to structure-based entries.
█ How It Works
⚪ Structure Tracking Engine
At its core, the indicator detects pivots and classifies trend direction:
Structure Period – Determines the depth of pivots used to detect swing highs/lows.
CHoCH – Break of structure logic identifies where the trend shifts or continues, marked visually on the chart.
Bullish & Bearish Modes – Independently toggle uptrend and downtrend detection and styling.
⚪ Fibonacci Engine
Upon each confirmed structural shift, Fibonacci retracement levels are projected between swing extremes:
Custom Levels – Choose which retracements (0.50, 0.618, etc.) are shown.
Real-Time Adjustments – When "Swing Tracker" is enabled, levels and labels update dynamically as price forms new swings.
Example:
If you disable the Swing Tracker, the Golden Level is calculated using the most recent confirmed swing high and low.
If you enable the Swing Tracker, the Golden Level is calculated from the latest swing high or low, making it more adaptive as the trend evolves in real time.
█ How to Use
⚪ Structure-Based Entry
Wait for CHoCH events and use the resulting Fibonacci projection to identify entry points. Enter trades as price taps into the Golden Zone, especially when confluence forms with swing structure or order blocks.
⚪ Real-Time Reaction Tracking
Enable Swing Tracker to keep the tool live — constantly updating zones as price shifts. This is especially useful for scalpers or intraday traders who rely on fresh swing zones.
█ Settings
Structure Period – Number of bars used to define swing pivots. Larger values = stronger structure.
Swing Tracker – Auto-updates fib levels as new highs/lows form.
Show Previous Levels – Keep older fib zones on chart or reset with each structure shift.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Daily High/Low Levels with mitigationThis Pine Script script defines a TradingView indicator named "Daily High/Low Levels" designed to track and display the daily high and low levels of a trading session, with added functionality for marking levels as mitigated when certain conditions are met. Here's a breakdown of its functionality:
Key Features
Session Start Time: The script allows you to specify a custom session start time in 24-hour format. This ensures the levels align with your trading session preferences.
Daily Highs and Lows:
Tracks the high and low levels for each session.
Retains the highs and lows for a configurable number of previous days.
Visualization:
Creates horizontal lines for each session's high and low levels.
Supports customization of line colors and styles.
Mitigation Tracking:
Monitors whether a high or low level has been "mitigated" (touched or exceeded by subsequent price action).
Changes the line style and color to indicate mitigation.
Provides an alert when mitigation occurs.
Configurable Extensions:
Lines can be extended beyond mitigation or stopped at the bar index where mitigation occurs, depending on user preference.
Efficient Array Management:
Uses arrays to manage daily highs, lows, their respective indices, and lines.
Ensures the size of stored data does not exceed the configured limit (daysToTrack).
Alerts:
Sends alerts when high or low levels are mitigated, which can be used for trading decisions.
Inputs
Session Start Hour/Minute: Defines when a new session starts.
Days to Track: Sets the number of previous days to display high/low levels.
Colors: Allows customization of line colors for unmitigated and mitigated levels.
Extend Lines: Toggles whether lines should extend past the mitigation point.
Code Highlights
New Session Detection: The script detects the start of a new session based on the configured session start time and resets daily highs/lows.
Line Management: Horizontal rays are created for highs and lows, and mitigated lines are updated with a dashed style and faded color.
Mitigation Logic: The script checks whether current price action exceeds stored high or low levels and updates their status and appearance accordingly.
Memory Management: Ensures the size of the arrays (highs, lows, lines) does not exceed the configured daysToTrack, deleting the oldest elements as necessary.
This indicator is highly customizable and useful for traders who want to track and analyze daily support and resistance levels, incorporating mitigation as a dynamic feature.
Range Trading StrategyOVERVIEW
The Range Trading Strategy is a systematic trading approach that identifies price ranges
from higher timeframe candles or trading sessions, tracks pivot points, and generates
trading signals when range extremes are mitigated and confirmed by pivot levels.
CORE CONCEPT
The strategy is based on the principle that when a candle (or session) closes within the
range of the previous candle (or session), that previous candle becomes a "range" with
identifiable high and low extremes. When price breaks through these extremes, it creates
trading opportunities that are confirmed by pivot levels.
RANGE DETECTION MODES
1. HTF (Higher Timeframe) Mode:
Automatically selects a higher timeframe based on the current chart timeframe
Uses request.security() to fetch HTF candle data
Range is created when an HTF candle closes within the previous HTF candle's range
The previous HTF candle's high and low become the range extremes
2. Sessions Mode:
- Divides the trading day into 4 sessions (UTC):
* Session 1: 00:00 - 06:00 (6 hours)
* Session 2: 06:00 - 12:00 (6 hours)
* Session 3: 12:00 - 20:00 (8 hours)
* Session 4: 20:00 - 00:00 (4 hours, spans midnight)
- Tracks high, low, and close for each session
- Range is created when a session closes within the previous session's range
- The previous session's high and low become the range extremes
PIVOT DETECTION
Pivots are detected based on candle color changes (bullish/bearish transitions):
1. Pivot Low:
Created when a bullish candle appears after a bearish candle
Pivot low = minimum of the current candle's low and previous candle's low
The pivot bar is the actual bar where the low was formed (current or previous bar)
2. Pivot High:
Created when a bearish candle appears after a bullish candle
Pivot high = maximum of the current candle's high and previous candle's high
The pivot bar is the actual bar where the high was formed (current or previous bar)
IMPORTANT: There is always only ONE active pivot high and ONE active pivot low at any
given time. When a new pivot is created, it replaces the previous one.
RANGE CREATION
A range is created when:
(HTF Mode) An HTF candle closes within the previous HTF candle's range AND a new HTF
candle has just started
(Sessions Mode) A session closes within the previous session's range AND a new session
has just started
Or Range Can Be Created when the Extreme of Another Range Gets Mitigated and We Have a Pivot low Just Above the Range Low or Pivot High just Below the Range High
Range Properties:
rangeHigh: The high extreme of the range
rangeLow: The low extreme of the range
highStartTime: The timestamp when the range high was actually formed (found by looping
backwards through bars)
lowStartTime: The timestamp when the range low was actually formed (found by looping
backwards through bars)
highMitigated / lowMitigated: Flags tracking whether each extreme has been broken
isSpecial: Flag indicating if this is a "special range" (see Special Ranges section)
RANGE MITIGATION
A range extreme is considered "mitigated" when price interacts with it:
High is mitigated when: high >= rangeHigh (any interaction at or above the level)
Low is mitigated when: low <= rangeLow (any interaction at or below the level)
Mitigation can happen:
At the moment of range creation (if price is already beyond the extreme)
At any point after range creation when price touches the extreme
SIGNAL GENERATION
1. Pending Signals:
When a range extreme is mitigated, a pending signal is created:
a) BEARISH Pending Signal:
- Triggered when: rangeHigh is mitigated
- Confirmation Level: Current pivotLow
- Signal is confirmed when: close < pivotLow
- Stop Loss: Current pivotHigh (at time of confirmation)
- Entry: Short position
Signal Confirmation
b) BULLISH Pending Signal:
- Triggered when: rangeLow is mitigated
- Confirmation Level: Current pivotHigh
- Signal is confirmed when: close > pivotHigh
- Stop Loss: Current pivotLow (at time of confirmation)
- Entry: Long position
IMPORTANT: There is only ever ONE pending bearish signal and ONE pending bullish signal
at any given time. When a new pending signal is created, it replaces the previous one
of the same type.
2. Signal Confirmation:
- Bearish: Confirmed when price closes below the pivot low (confirmation level)
- Bullish: Confirmed when price closes above the pivot high (confirmation level)
- Upon confirmation, a trade is entered immediately
- The confirmation line is drawn from the pivot bar to the confirmation bar
TRADE EXECUTION
When a signal is confirmed:
1. Position Management:
- Any existing position in the opposite direction is closed first
- Then the new position is entered
2. Stop Loss:
- Bearish (Short): Stop at pivotHigh
- Bullish (Long): Stop at pivotLow
3. Take Profit:
- Calculated using Risk:Reward Ratio (default 2:1)
- Risk = Distance from entry to stop loss
- Target = Entry ± (Risk × R:R Ratio)
- Can be disabled with "Stop Loss Only" toggle
4. Trade Comments:
- "Range Bear" for short trades
- "Range Bull" for long trades
SPECIAL RANGES
Special ranges are created when:
- A range high is mitigated AND the current pivotHigh is below the range high
- A range low is mitigated AND the current pivotLow is above the range low
In these cases:
- The pivot value is stored in an array (storedPivotHighs or storedPivotLows)
- A "special range" is created with only ONE extreme:
* If pivotHigh < rangeHigh: Creates a range with rangeHigh = pivotLow, rangeLow = na
* If pivotLow > rangeLow: Creates a range with rangeLow = pivotHigh, rangeHigh = na
- Special ranges can generate signals just like normal ranges
- If a special range is mitigated on the creation bar or the next bar, it is removed
entirely without generating signals (prevents false signals)
Special Ranges
REVERSE ON STOP LOSS
When enabled, if a stop loss is hit, the strategy automatically opens a trade in the
opposite direction:
1. Long Stop Loss Hit:
- Detects when: position_size > 0 AND position_size <= 0 AND low <= longStopLoss
- Action: Opens a SHORT position
- Stop Loss: Current pivotHigh
- Trade Comment: "Reverse on Stop"
2. Short Stop Loss Hit:
- Detects when: position_size < 0 AND position_size >= 0 AND high >= shortStopLoss
- Action: Opens a LONG position
- Stop Loss: Current pivotLow
- Trade Comment: "Reverse on Stop"
The reverse trade uses the same R:R ratio and respects the "Stop Loss Only" setting.
VISUAL ELEMENTS
1. Range Lines:
- Drawn from the time when the extreme was formed to the mitigation point (or current
time if not mitigated)
- High lines: Blue (or mitigated color if mitigated)
- Low lines: Red (or mitigated color if mitigated)
- Style: SOLID
- Width: 1
2. Confirmation Lines:
- Drawn when a signal is confirmed
- Extends from the pivot bar to the confirmation bar
- Bearish: Red, solid line
- Bullish: Green, solid line
- Width: 1
- Can be toggled on/off
STRATEGY SETTINGS
1. Range Detection Mode:
- HTF: Uses higher timeframe candles
- Sessions: Uses trading session boundaries
2. Auto HTF:
- Automatically selects HTF based on current chart timeframe
- Can be disabled to use manual HTF selection
3. Risk:Reward Ratio:
- Default: 2.0 (2:1)
- Minimum: 0.5
- Step: 0.5
4. Stop Loss Only:
- When enabled: Trades only have stop loss (no take profit)
- Trades close on stop loss or when opposite signal confirms
5. Reverse on Stop Loss:
- When enabled: Hitting a stop loss opens opposite trade with stop at opposing pivot
6. Max Ranges to Display:
- Limits the number of ranges kept in memory
- Oldest ranges are purged when limit is exceeded
KEY FEATURES
1. Dynamic Pivot Tracking:
- Pivots update on every candle color change
- Always maintains one high and one low pivot
2. Range Lifecycle:
- Ranges are created when price closes within previous range
- Ranges are tracked until mitigated
- Mitigation creates pending signals
- Signals are confirmed by pivot levels
3. Signal Priority:
- Only one pending signal of each type at a time
- New signals replace old ones
- Confirmation happens on close of bar
4. Position Management:
- Closes opposite positions before entering new trades
- Tracks stop loss levels for reverse functionality
- Respects pyramiding = 1 (only one position per direction)
5. Time-Based Drawing:
- Uses time coordinates instead of bar indices for line drawing
- Prevents "too far from current bar" errors
- Lines can extend to any historical point
USAGE NOTES
- Best suited for trending and ranging markets
- Works on any timeframe, but HTF mode adapts automatically
- Sessions mode is ideal for intraday trading
- Pivot detection requires clear candle color changes
- Range detection requires price to close within previous range
- Signals are generated on bar close, not intra-bar
The strategy combines range identification, pivot tracking, and signal confirmation to
create a systematic approach to trading breakouts and reversals based on price structure, past performance does not in any way predict future performance
chart Pattern & Candle sticks Strategy# **XAUUSD Pattern & Candle Strategy - Complete Description**
## **Overview**
This Pine Script indicator is a comprehensive multi-factor trading system specifically designed for **XAUUSD (Gold) scalping and swing trading**. It combines classical technical analysis methods including candlestick patterns, chart patterns, moving averages, and volume analysis to generate high-probability buy/sell signals with automatic stop-loss and take-profit levels.
***
## **Core Components**
### **1. Moving Average System (Triple MA)**
**Purpose:** Identifies trend direction and momentum
- **Fast MA (20-period)** - Short-term price action
- **Medium MA (50-period)** - Intermediate trend
- **Slow MA (200-period)** - Long-term trend direction
**How it works:**
- **Bullish alignment**: MA20 > MA50 > MA200 (all pointing up)
- **Bearish alignment**: MA20 < MA50 < MA200 (all pointing down)
- **Crossover signals**: When Fast MA crosses Medium MA, it triggers buy/sell signals
- **Choice of SMA or EMA**: Adjustable based on preference
**Visual indicators:**
- Blue line = Fast MA
- Orange line = Medium MA
- Light red line = Slow MA
- Green background tint = Bullish trend
- Red background tint = Bearish trend
---
### **2. Candlestick Pattern Recognition (13 Patterns)**
**Purpose:** Identifies reversal and continuation signals based on price action
#### **Bullish Patterns (Signal potential upward moves):**
1. **Hammer** 🔨
- Long lower wick (2x body size)
- Small body at top
- Indicates rejection of lower prices (buyers stepping in)
- Best at support levels
2. **Inverted Hammer**
- Long upper wick
- Small body at bottom
- Shows buying pressure despite initial selling
3. **Bullish Engulfing** 📈
- Green candle completely engulfs previous red candle
- Strong reversal signal
- Body must be 1.2x larger than previous
4. **Morning Star** ⭐
- 3-candle pattern
- Red candle → Small indecision candle → Large green candle
- Powerful reversal at bottoms
5. **Piercing Line** ⚡
- Green candle closes above 50% of previous red candle
- Indicates strong buying interest
6. **Bullish Marubozu**
- Almost no wicks (95% body)
- Very strong bullish momentum
- Body must be 1.3x average size
#### **Bearish Patterns (Signal potential downward moves):**
7. **Shooting Star** 💫
- Long upper wick
- Small body at bottom
- Indicates rejection of higher prices (sellers in control)
- Best at resistance levels
8. **Hanging Man**
- Similar to hammer but appears at top
- Warning of potential reversal down
9. **Bearish Engulfing** 📉
- Red candle completely engulfs previous green candle
- Strong reversal signal
10. **Evening Star** 🌙
- 3-candle pattern (opposite of Morning Star)
- Green → Small → Large red candle
- Powerful top reversal
11. **Dark Cloud Cover** ☁️
- Red candle closes below 50% of previous green candle
- Indicates strong selling pressure
12. **Bearish Marubozu**
- Almost no wicks, pure red body
- Very strong bearish momentum
#### **Neutral Pattern:**
13. **Doji**
- Open and close nearly equal (tiny body)
- Indicates indecision
- Often precedes major moves
**Detection Logic:**
- Compares body size, wick ratios, and position relative to previous candles
- Uses 14-period average body size as reference
- All patterns validated against volume confirmation
***
### **3. Chart Pattern Recognition**
**Purpose:** Identifies major support/resistance and reversal patterns
#### **Patterns Detected:**
**Double Bottom** 📊 (Bullish)
- Two lows at approximately same level
- Indicates strong support
- Breakout above neckline triggers buy signal
- Most reliable at major support zones
**Double Top** 📊 (Bearish)
- Two highs at approximately same level
- Indicates strong resistance
- Breakdown below neckline triggers sell signal
- Most reliable at major resistance zones
**Support & Resistance Levels**
- Automatically plots recent pivot highs (resistance)
- Automatically plots recent pivot lows (support)
- Uses 3-bar strength for validation
- Levels shown as dashed horizontal lines
**Price Action Patterns**
- **Uptrend detection**: Higher highs + higher lows
- **Downtrend detection**: Lower highs + lower lows
- Confirms overall market structure
***
### **4. Volume Analysis**
**Purpose:** Confirms signal strength and filters false signals
**Metrics tracked:**
- **Volume MA (20-period)**: Baseline average volume
- **High volume threshold**: 1.5x the volume average
- **Volume increase**: Current volume > previous 2 bars
**How it's used:**
- All buy/sell signals **require volume confirmation**
- High volume = institutional participation
- Low volume signals are filtered out
- Prevents whipsaw trades during quiet periods
**Visual indicator:**
- Dashboard shows "High" volume in orange when active
- "Normal" shown in gray during low volume
***
### **5. Signal Generation Logic**
**BUY SIGNALS triggered when ANY of these occur:**
1. **Candlestick + Volume**
- Bullish candle pattern detected
- High volume confirmation
- Price above Fast MA
2. **MA Crossover + Volume**
- Fast MA crosses above Medium MA
- High volume confirmation
3. **Double Bottom Breakout**
- Price breaks above support level
- Volume confirmation present
4. **Trend Continuation**
- Uptrend structure intact (higher highs/lows)
- All MAs in bullish alignment
- Price above Fast MA
- Volume confirmation
**SELL SIGNALS triggered when ANY of these occur:**
1. **Candlestick + Volume**
- Bearish candle pattern detected
- High volume confirmation
- Price below Fast MA
2. **MA Crossunder + Volume**
- Fast MA crosses below Medium MA
- High volume confirmation
3. **Double Top Breakdown**
- Price breaks below resistance level
- Volume confirmation present
4. **Trend Continuation**
- Downtrend structure intact (lower highs/lows)
- All MAs in bearish alignment
- Price below Fast MA
- Volume confirmation
***
### **6. Risk Management System**
**Automatic Stop Loss Calculation:**
- Based on ATR (Average True Range) - 14 periods
- **Formula**: Entry price ± (ATR × SL Multiplier)
- **Default multiplier**: 1.5 (adjustable)
- Adapts to market volatility automatically
**Automatic Take Profit Calculation:**
- **Formula**: Entry price ± (ATR × TP Multiplier)
- **Default multiplier**: 2.5 (adjustable)
- **Default Risk:Reward ratio**: 1:1.67
- Higher TP multiplier = more aggressive targets
**Position Management:**
- Tracks ONE position at a time (no pyramiding)
- Automatically closes position when:
- Stop loss is hit
- Take profit is reached
- Opposite MA crossover occurs
- Prevents revenge trading and over-leveraging
**Visual Representation:**
- **Red horizontal line** = Stop Loss level
- **Green horizontal line** = Take Profit level
- Lines remain on chart while position is active
- Automatically disappear when position closes
***
### **7. Visual Elements**
**On-Chart Displays:**
1. **Moving Average Lines**
- Fast MA (Blue, thick)
- Medium MA (Orange, thick)
- Slow MA (Red, thin)
2. **Support/Resistance**
- Green crosses = Support levels
- Red crosses = Resistance levels
3. **Buy/Sell Arrows**
- Large GREEN "BUY" label below bars
- Large RED "SELL" label above bars
4. **Pattern Labels** (Small markers)
- "Hammer", "Bull Engulf", "Morning Star" (green, below bars)
- "Shooting Star", "Bear Engulf", "Evening Star" (red, above bars)
- "Double Bottom" / "Double Top" (blue/orange)
5. **Signal Detail Labels** (Medium size)
- Shows signal reason (e.g., "Bullish Candle", "MA Cross Up")
- Displays Entry, SL, and TP prices
- Color-coded (green for long, red for short)
6. **Background Coloring**
- Light green tint = Bullish MA alignment
- Light red tint = Bearish MA alignment
***
### **8. Information Dashboard**
**Top-right corner table showing:**
| Metric | Description |
|--------|-------------|
| **Position** | Current trade status (LONG/SHORT/None) |
| **MA Trend** | Overall trend direction (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral) |
| **Volume** | Current volume status (High/Normal) |
| **Pattern** | Last detected candlestick pattern |
| **ATR** | Current volatility measurement |
**Purpose:**
- Quick at-a-glance market assessment
- Real-time position tracking
- No need to check multiple indicators
***
### **9. Alert System**
**Complete alert coverage for:**
✅ **Entry Alerts**
- "Buy Signal" - Triggers when buy conditions met
- "Sell Signal" - Triggers when sell conditions met
✅ **Exit Alerts**
- "Long TP Hit" - Take profit reached on long position
- "Long SL Hit" - Stop loss triggered on long position
- "Short TP Hit" - Take profit reached on short position
- "Short SL Hit" - Stop loss triggered on short position
**How to use:**
1. Click "Create Alert" button
2. Select desired alert from dropdown
3. Set notification method (popup, email, SMS, webhook)
4. Never miss a trade opportunity
***
## **Recommended Settings**
### **For Scalping (Quick trades):**
- **Timeframe**: 5-minute
- **Fast MA**: 9
- **Medium MA**: 21
- **Slow MA**: 50
- **SL Multiplier**: 1.0
- **TP Multiplier**: 2.0
- **Volume Threshold**: 1.5x
### **For Swing Trading (Longer holds):**
- **Timeframe**: 1-hour or 4-hour
- **Fast MA**: 20
- **Medium MA**: 50
- **Slow MA**: 200
- **SL Multiplier**: 2.0
- **TP Multiplier**: 3.0
- **Volume Threshold**: 1.3x
### **Best Trading Hours for XAUUSD:**
- **Asian Session**: 00:00 - 08:00 GMT (lower volatility)
- **London Session**: 08:00 - 16:00 GMT (high volatility) ⭐
- **New York Session**: 13:00 - 21:00 GMT (highest volume) ⭐
- **London-NY Overlap**: 13:00 - 16:00 GMT (BEST for scalping) 🔥
***
## **How to Use This Strategy**
### **Step 1: Setup**
1. Open TradingView
2. Load XAUUSD chart
3. Select timeframe (5m, 15m, 1H, or 4H)
4. Add indicator from Pine Editor
5. Adjust settings based on your trading style
### **Step 2: Wait for Signals**
- Watch for GREEN "BUY" or RED "SELL" labels
- Check the signal reason in the detail label
- Verify dashboard shows favorable conditions
- Confirm volume is "High" (not required but preferred)
### **Step 3: Enter Trade**
- Enter at market or limit order near signal price
- Note the displayed Entry, SL, and TP prices
- Set your broker's SL/TP to match indicator levels
### **Step 4: Manage Position**
- Watch for SL/TP lines on chart
- Monitor dashboard for trend changes
- Exit manually if opposite MA crossover occurs
- Let SL/TP do their job (don't move them!)
### **Step 5: Review & Learn**
- Track win rate over 20+ trades
- Adjust multipliers if needed
- Note which patterns work best for you
- Refine entry timing
***
## **Key Advantages**
✅ **Multi-confirmation approach** - Reduces false signals significantly
✅ **Automatic risk management** - No manual calculation needed
✅ **Adapts to volatility** - ATR-based SL/TP adjusts to market conditions
✅ **Volume filtered** - Ensures institutional participation
✅ **Visual clarity** - Easy to understand at a glance
✅ **Complete alert system** - Never miss opportunities
✅ **Pattern education** - Learn patterns as they appear
✅ **Works on all timeframes** - Scalping to swing trading
***
## **Limitations & Considerations**
⚠️ **Not a holy grail** - No strategy wins 100% of trades
⚠️ **Requires practice** - Demo trade first to understand signals
⚠️ **Market conditions matter** - Works best in trending or volatile markets
⚠️ **News events** - Avoid trading during major economic releases
⚠️ **Slippage on 5m** - Fast markets may have execution delays
⚠️ **Pattern subjectivity** - Some patterns may trigger differently than expected
***
## **Risk Management Rules**
1. **Never risk more than 1-2% per trade**
2. **Maximum 3 positions per day** (avoid overtrading)
3. **Don't trade during major news** (NFP, FOMC, etc.)
4. **Use proper position sizing** (0.01 lot per $100 for micro accounts)
5. **Keep trade journal** (track patterns, win rate, mistakes)
6. **Stop trading after 3 consecutive losses** (psychological reset)
7. **Don't move stop loss further away** (accept losses)
8. **Take partial profits** at 1:1 R:R if desired
***
## **Expected Performance**
**Realistic expectations:**
- **Win rate**: 50-65% (depending on market conditions and timeframe)
- **Risk:Reward**: 1:1.67 default (adjustable to 1:2 or 1:3)
- **Signals per day**: 3-8 on 5m, 1-3 on 1H
- **Best months**: High volatility periods (news events, economic uncertainty)
- **Drawdowns**: Expect 3-5 losing trades in a row occasionally
***
## **Customization Options**
All inputs are adjustable in settings panel:
**Moving Averages:**
- Type (SMA or EMA)
- All three period lengths
**Volume:**
- Volume MA length
- High volume multiplier threshold
**Chart Patterns:**
- Pattern strength (bars for pivot detection)
- Show/hide pattern labels
**Risk Management:**
- ATR period
- Stop loss multiplier
- Take profit multiplier
**Display:**
- Toggle pattern labels
- Customize colors (in code)
***
## **Conclusion**
This is a **professional-grade, multi-factor trading system** that combines the best of classical technical analysis with modern risk management. It's designed to give clear, actionable signals while automatically handling the complex calculations of stop loss and take profit levels.
**Best suited for traders who:**
- Understand basic technical analysis
- Can follow rules consistently
- Prefer systematic approach over gut feeling
- Want visual confirmation before entering trades
- Value proper risk management
**Start with demo trading** for at least 20-30 trades to understand how the signals work in different market conditions. Once comfortable and profitable on demo, transition to live trading with minimal risk per trade.
Happy trading! 📈🎯
Leverage Aware Trade OptimizerWelcome to the Leverage-Aware Trade Optimizer (LATO)! I’m thrilled to have you exploring this dynamic algorithm! LATO combines advanced market oscillation tracking, leverage-aware trade optimization, and real-time market analysis to help you make smarter, more informed trading decisions. Whether you're just starting or you’re an experienced trader, LATO provides powerful tools and insights to enhance your strategies. LATO is here to support you in optimizing your trades with precision, so feel free to dive in and explore all the features. Let’s make your trading experience as effective and rewarding as possible. Safe trading!
Leverage-Aware Trade Optimizer (LATO)
Short Title: LATO
Category: Trading Tools / Technical Analysis
Overview
The Leverage-Aware Trade Optimizer (LATO) is a powerful algorithm designed to track and analyze market oscillations, identify reversal zones, and provide dynamic trading levels for optimal decision-making. With built-in risk management features, LATO enhances traders’ ability to make well-informed decisions based on a comprehensive range of market indicators, including price oscillations, probabilities, and leverage-related risks.
Key Features
Comprehensive Market Oscillation Tracking: LATO utilizes advanced indicators such as the Indexed Position Oscillator (IPO), Candle Relative Percentage (CRP), and Oscillating Range Indicator (ORI) to track price fluctuations and detect key market oscillations, providing a detailed view of price movements.
Dynamic Price Levels for Trading Decisions: The script calculates critical price levels such as WAP, WBP, XAP, and XBP. These weighted and expanded prices help identify potential support and resistance zones for accurate trade entries and exits.
Reversal Detection and Trend Identification: LATO is designed to recognize top and bottom reversal zones using user-defined thresholds (e.g., upper_reversal, lower_reversal). The algorithm signals potential trend changes with event markers such as UP, DOWN, UIP, and DIP, enabling traders to anticipate market reversals.
Risk and Leverage Mapping: By estimating liquidation levels for various leverage values (5x, 10x, 20x, etc.), LATO assists in risk management, helping traders visualize leverage exposure and optimize their trades according to risk tolerance.
Integrated Visualization and Event Labels: LATO enhances visual analysis by plotting key levels, trend lines, and event markers on the chart. Custom labels summarize critical values, including SOD (Sell Odds), BOD (Buy Odds), ORI (Oscillating Range Indicator), and PVI (Price Volatility Index), offering a quick, actionable summary for traders.
User Inputs
Orders Deviation (order_deviation): Controls the deviation for calculating trade levels.
Top Reversal (upper_reversal): Sets the threshold for the upper reversal zone.
Bottom Reversal (lower_reversal): Sets the threshold for the lower reversal zone.
How It Works
LATO tracks market oscillations through the Indexed Position Oscillator (IPO) and Candle Relative Percentage (CRP), dynamically adjusting as the market fluctuates. The algorithm then identifies key levels using weighted prices (e.g., WAP, WBP) and generates reversal signals based on defined thresholds.
Once the Leverage-Aware Trade Optimizer (LATO) is applied to a chart, it automatically calculates dynamic support and resistance levels and identifies potential buying or selling opportunities. The script also plots liquidation zones based on different leverage levels and visualizes these areas through color-coded lines.
Use Case Scenarios
Trend Reversal Detection: Identify when the market is likely to reverse based on the ORI and price action.
Dynamic Price Levels: Use the weighted price levels and trend lines to pinpoint entry/exit points.
Leverage Risk Management: Monitor liquidation levels and use them for managing risk while trading with leverage.
Oscillation Tracking: Track key oscillations for detecting overbought or oversold conditions.
Alert Setup for LATO
You can set up alerts based on the key conditions like UP, DOWN, UIP, and DIP, as well as specific market movements.
Down Trend Alert (DOWN): Alerts when there’s a downtrend, triggered by a crossover of WBP and BL5, with specific conditions for ORI and SOD.
Up Trend Alert (UP): Alerts when there’s an uptrend, triggered by a crossunder of WAP and SL5, with ORI below -0.5.
Upper Reversal Alert (UIP): Alerts when ORI crosses below the lower_reversal threshold.
Downward Reversal Alert (DIP): Alerts when ORI crosses above the upper_reversal threshold.
Conclusion
The Leverage-Aware Trade Optimizer (LATO) is a comprehensive trading tool designed for traders seeking to optimize their trade entries and exits. By combining multiple indicators, dynamic price levels, and reversal zone detection, LATO offers an advanced approach to market analysis and decision-making. Whether you’re trading with leverage or simply looking for trend confirmation, LATO provides the insights you need to maximize your trading potential.
Notes
This script is designed to be used on any time frame.
Adjust the order_deviation parameter based on the asset volatility you are trading.
The reversal thresholds (upper and lower) should be fine-tuned depending on market conditions.
Luxy Super-Duper SuperTrend Predictor Engine and Buy/Sell signalA professional trend-following grading system that analyzes historical trend
patterns to provide statistical duration estimates using advanced similarity
matching and k-nearest neighbors analysis. Combines adaptive Supertrend with
intelligent duration statistics, multi-timeframe confluence, volume confirmation,
and quality scoring to identify high-probability setups with data-driven
target ranges across all timeframes.
Note: All duration estimates are statistical calculations based on historical data, not guarantees of future performance.
WHAT MAKES THIS DIFFERENT
Unlike traditional SuperTrend indicators that only tell you trend direction, this system answers the critical question: "What is the typical duration for trends like this?"
The Statistical Analysis Engine:
• Analyzes your chart's last 15+ completed SuperTrend trends (bullish and bearish separately)
• Uses k-nearest neighbors similarity matching to find historically similar setups
• Calculates statistical duration estimates based on current market conditions
• Learns from estimation errors and adapts over time (Advanced mode)
• Displays visual duration analysis box showing median, average, and range estimates
• Tracks Statistical accuracy with backtest statistics
Complete Trading System:
• Statistical trend duration analysis with three intelligence levels
• Adaptive Supertrend with dynamic ATR-based bands
• Multi-timeframe confluence analysis (6 timeframes: 5M to 1W)
• Volume confirmation with spike detection and momentum tracking
• Quality scoring system (0-70 points) rating each setup
• One-click preset optimization for all trading styles
• Anti-repaint guarantee on all signals and duration estimates
METHODOLOGY CREDITS
This indicator's approach is inspired by proven trading methodologies from respected market educators:
• Mark Minervini - Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) and pullback entry techniques
• William O'Neil - Volume confirmation principles and institutional buying patterns (CANSLIM methodology)
• Dan Zanger - Volatility expansion entries and momentum breakout strategies
Important: These are educational references only. This indicator does not guarantee any specific trading results. Always conduct your own analysis and risk management.
KEY FEATURES
1. TREND DURATION ANALYSIS SYSTEM - The Core Innovation
The statistical analysis engine is what sets this indicator apart from standard SuperTrend systems. It doesn't just identify trend changes - it provides statistical analysis of potential duration.
How It Works:
Step 1: Historical Tracking
• Automatically records every completed SuperTrend trend (duration in bars)
• Maintains separate databases for bullish trends and bearish trends
• Stores up to 15 most recent trends of each type
• Captures market conditions at each trend flip: volume ratio, ATR ratio, quality score, price distance from SuperTrend, proximity to support/resistance
Step 2: Similarity Matching (k-Nearest Neighbors)
• When new trend begins, system compares current conditions to ALL historical flips
• Calculates similarity score based on:
- Volume similarity (30% weight) - Is volume behaving similarly?
- Volatility similarity (30% weight) - Is ATR/volatility similar?
- Quality similarity (20% weight) - Is setup strength comparable?
- Distance similarity (10% weight) - Is price distance from ST similar?
- Support/Resistance proximity (10% weight) - Similar structural context?
• Selects the 15 MOST SIMILAR historical trends (not just all trends)
• This is like asking: "When conditions looked like this before, how long did trends last?"
Step 3: Statistical Analysis
• Calculates median duration (most common outcome)
• Calculates average duration (mean of similar trends)
• Determines realistic range (min to max of similar trends)
• Applies exponential weighting (recent trends weighted more heavily)
• Outputs confidence-weighted statistical estimate
Step 4: Advanced Intelligence (Advanced Mode Only)
The Advanced mode applies five sophisticated multipliers to refine estimates:
A) Market Structure Multiplier (±30%):
• Detects nearby support/resistance levels using pivot detection
• If flip occurs NEAR a key level: Estimate adjusted -30% (expect bounce/rejection)
• If flip occurs in open space: Estimate adjusted +30% (clear path for continuation)
• Uses configurable lookback period and ATR-based proximity threshold
B) Asset Type Multiplier (±40%):
• Adjusts duration estimates based on asset volatility characteristics
• Small Cap / Biotech: +40% (explosive, extended moves)
• Tech Growth: +20% (momentum-driven, longer trends)
• Blue Chip / Large Cap: 0% (baseline, steady trends)
• Dividend / Value: -20% (slower, grinding trends)
• Cyclical: Variable based on macro regime
• Crypto / High Volatility: +30% (parabolic potential)
C) Flip Strength Multiplier (±20%):
• Analyzes the QUALITY of the trend flip itself
• Strong flip (high volume + expanding ATR + quality score 60+): +20%
• Weak flip (low volume + contracting ATR + quality score under 40): -20%
• Logic: Historical data shows that powerful flips tend to be followed by longer trends
D) Error Learning Multiplier (±15%):
• Tracks Statistical accuracy over last 10 completed trends
• Calculates error ratio: (estimated duration / Actual Duration)
• If system consistently over-estimates: Apply -15% correction
• If system consistently under-estimates: Apply +15% correction
• Learns and adapts to current market regime
E) Regime Detection Multiplier (±20%):
• Analyzes last 3 trends of SAME TYPE (bull-to-bull or bear-to-bear)
• Compares recent trend durations to historical average
• If recent trends 20%+ longer than average: +20% adjustment (trending regime detected)
• If recent trends 20%+ shorter than average: -20% adjustment (choppy regime detected)
• Detects whether market is in trending or mean-reversion mode
Three analysis modes:
SIMPLE MODE - Basic Statistics
• Uses raw median of similar trends only
• No multipliers, no adjustments
• Best for: Beginners, clean trending markets
• Fastest calculations, minimal complexity
STANDARD MODE - Full Statistical Analysis
• Similarity matching with k-nearest neighbors
• Exponential weighting of recent trends
• Median, average, and range calculations
• Best for: Most traders, general market conditions
• Balance of accuracy and simplicity
ADVANCED MODE - Statistics + Intelligence
• Everything in Standard mode PLUS
• All 5 advanced multipliers (structure, asset type, flip strength, learning, regime)
• Highest Statistical accuracy in testing
• Best for: Experienced traders, volatile/complex markets
• Maximum intelligence, most adaptive
Visual Duration Analysis Box:
When a new trend begins (SuperTrend flip), a box appears on your chart showing:
• Analysis Mode (Simple / Standard / Advanced)
• Number of historical trends analyzed
• Median expected duration (most likely outcome)
• Average expected duration (mean of similar trends)
• Range (minimum to maximum from similar trends)
• Advanced multipliers breakdown (Advanced mode only)
• Backtest accuracy statistics (if available)
The box extends from the flip bar to the estimated endpoint based on historical data, giving you a visual target for trend duration. Box updates in real-time as trend progresses.
Backtest & Accuracy Tracking:
• System backtests its own duration estimates using historical data
• Shows accuracy metrics: how well duration estimates matched actual durations
• Tracks last 10 completed duration estimates separately
• Displays statistics in dashboard and duration analysis boxes
• Helps you understand statistical reliability on your specific symbol/timeframe
Anti-Repaint Guarantee:
• duration analysis boxes only appear AFTER bar close (barstate.isconfirmed)
• Historical duration estimates never disappear or change
• What you see in history is exactly what you would have seen real-time
• No future data leakage, no lookahead bias
2. INTELLIGENT PRESET CONFIGURATIONS - One-Click Optimization
Unlike indicators that require tedious parameter tweaking, this system includes professionally optimized presets for every trading style. Select your approach from the dropdown and ALL parameters auto-configure.
"AUTO (DETECT FROM TF)" - RECOMMENDED
The smartest option: automatically selects optimal settings based on your chart timeframe.
• 1m-5m charts → Scalping preset (ATR: 7, Mult: 2.0)
• 15m-1h charts → Day Trading preset (ATR: 10, Mult: 2.5)
• 2h-4h-D charts → Swing Trading preset (ATR: 14, Mult: 3.0)
• W-M charts → Position Trading preset (ATR: 21, Mult: 4.0)
Benefits:
• Zero configuration - works immediately
• Always matched to your timeframe
• Switch timeframe = automatic adjustment
• Perfect for traders who use multiple timeframes
"SCALPING (1-5M)" - Ultra-Fast Signals
Optimized for: 1-5 minute charts, high-frequency trading, quick profits
Target holding period: Minutes to 1-2 hours maximum
Best markets: High-volume stocks, major crypto pairs, active futures
Parameter Configuration:
• Supertrend: ATR 7, Multiplier 2.0 (very sensitive)
• Volume: MA 10, High 1.8x, Spike 3.0x (catches quick surges)
• Volume Momentum: AUTO-DISABLED (too restrictive for fast scalping)
• Quality minimum: 40 points (accepts more setups)
• Duration Analysis: Uses last 15 trends with heavy recent weighting
Trading Logic:
Speed over precision. Short ATR period and low multiplier create highly responsive SuperTrend. Volume momentum filter disabled to avoid missing fast moves. Quality threshold relaxed to catch more opportunities in rapid market conditions.
Signals per session: 5-15 typically
Hold time: Minutes to couple hours
Best for: Active traders with fast execution
"DAY TRADING (15M-1H)" - Balanced Approach
Optimized for: 15-minute to 1-hour charts, intraday moves, session-based trading
Target holding period: 30 minutes to 8 hours (within trading day)
Best markets: Large-cap stocks, major indices, established crypto
Parameter Configuration:
• Supertrend: ATR 10, Multiplier 2.5 (balanced)
• Volume: MA 20, High 1.5x, Spike 2.5x (standard detection)
• Volume Momentum: 5/20 periods (confirms intraday strength)
• Quality minimum: 50 points (good setups preferred)
• Duration Analysis: Balanced weighting of recent vs historical
Trading Logic:
The most balanced configuration. ATR 10 with multiplier 2.5 provides steady trend following that avoids noise while catching meaningful moves. Volume momentum confirms institutional participation without being overly restrictive.
Signals per session: 2-5 typically
Hold time: 30 minutes to full day
Best for: Part-time and full-time active traders
"SWING TRADING (4H-D)" - Trend Stability
Optimized for: 4-hour to Daily charts, multi-day holds, trend continuation
Target holding period: 2-15 days typically
Best markets: Growth stocks, sector ETFs, trending crypto, commodity futures
Parameter Configuration:
• Supertrend: ATR 14, Multiplier 3.0 (stable)
• Volume: MA 30, High 1.3x, Spike 2.2x (accumulation focus)
• Volume Momentum: 10/30 periods (trend stability)
• Quality minimum: 60 points (high-quality setups only)
• Duration Analysis: Favors consistent historical patterns
Trading Logic:
Designed for substantial trend moves while filtering short-term noise. Higher ATR period and multiplier create stable SuperTrend that won't flip on minor corrections. Stricter quality requirements ensure only strongest setups generate signals.
Signals per week: 2-5 typically
Hold time: Days to couple weeks
Best for: Part-time traders, swing style
"POSITION TRADING (D-W)" - Long-Term Trends
Optimized for: Daily to Weekly charts, major trend changes, portfolio allocation
Target holding period: Weeks to months
Best markets: Blue-chip stocks, major indices, established cryptocurrencies
Parameter Configuration:
• Supertrend: ATR 21, Multiplier 4.0 (very stable)
• Volume: MA 50, High 1.2x, Spike 2.0x (long-term accumulation)
• Volume Momentum: 20/50 periods (major trend confirmation)
• Quality minimum: 70 points (excellent setups only)
• Duration Analysis: Heavy emphasis on multi-year historical data
Trading Logic:
Conservative approach focusing on major trend changes. Extended ATR period and high multiplier create SuperTrend that only flips on significant reversals. Very strict quality filters ensure signals represent genuine long-term opportunities.
Signals per month: 1-2 typically
Hold time: Weeks to months
Best for: Long-term investors, set-and-forget approach
"CUSTOM" - Advanced Configuration
Purpose: Complete manual control for experienced traders
Use when: You understand the parameters and want specific optimization
Best for: Testing new approaches, unusual market conditions, specific instruments
Full control over:
• All SuperTrend parameters
• Volume thresholds and momentum periods
• Quality scoring weights
• analysis mode and multipliers
• Advanced features tuning
Preset Comparison Quick Reference:
Chart Timeframe: Scalping (1M-5M) | Day Trading (15M-1H) | Swing (4H-D) | Position (D-W)
Signals Frequency: Very High | High | Medium | Low
Hold Duration: Minutes | Hours | Days | Weeks-Months
Quality Threshold: 40 pts | 50 pts | 60 pts | 70 pts
ATR Sensitivity: Highest | Medium | Lower | Lowest
Time Investment: Highest | High | Medium | Lowest
Experience Level: Expert | Advanced | Intermediate | Beginner+
3. QUALITY SCORING SYSTEM (0-70 Points)
Every signal is rated in real-time across three dimensions:
Volume Confirmation (0-30 points):
• Volume Spike (2.5x+ average): 30 points
• High Volume (1.5x+ average): 20 points
• Above Average (1.0x+ average): 10 points
• Below Average: 0 points
Volatility Assessment (0-30 points):
• Expanding ATR (1.2x+ average): 30 points
• Rising ATR (1.0-1.2x average): 15 points
• Contracting/Stable ATR: 0 points
Volume Momentum (0-10 points):
• Strong Momentum (1.2x+ ratio): 10 points
• Rising Momentum (1.0-1.2x ratio): 5 points
• Weak/Neutral Momentum: 0 points
Score Interpretation:
60-70 points - EXCELLENT:
• All factors aligned
• High conviction setup
• Maximum position size (within risk limits)
• Primary trading opportunities
45-59 points - STRONG:
• Multiple confirmations present
• Above-average setup quality
• Standard position size
• Good trading opportunities
30-44 points - GOOD:
• Basic confirmations met
• Acceptable setup quality
• Reduced position size
• Wait for additional confirmation or trade smaller
Below 30 points - WEAK:
• Minimal confirmations
• Low probability setup
• Consider passing
• Only for aggressive traders in strong trends
Only signals meeting your minimum quality threshold (configurable per preset) generate alerts and labels.
4. MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE ANALYSIS
The system can simultaneously analyze trend alignment across 6 timeframes (optional feature):
Timeframes analyzed:
• 5-minute (scalping context)
• 15-minute (intraday momentum)
• 1-hour (day trading bias)
• 4-hour (swing context)
• Daily (primary trend)
• Weekly (macro trend)
Confluence Interpretation:
• 5-6/6 aligned - Very strong multi-timeframe agreement (highest confidence)
• 3-4/6 aligned - Moderate agreement (standard setup)
• 1-2/6 aligned - Weak agreement (caution advised)
Dashboard shows real-time alignment count with color-coding. Higher confluence typically correlates with longer, stronger trends.
5. VOLUME MOMENTUM FILTER - Institutional Money Flow
Unlike traditional volume indicators that just measure size, Volume Momentum tracks the RATE OF CHANGE in volume:
How it works:
• Compares short-term volume average (fast period) to long-term average (slow period)
• Ratio above 1.0 = Volume accelerating (money flowing IN)
• Ratio above 1.2 = Strong acceleration (institutional participation likely)
• Ratio below 0.8 = Volume decelerating (money flowing OUT)
Why it matters:
• Confirms trend with actual money flow, not just price
• Leading indicator (volume often leads price)
• Catches accumulation/distribution before breakouts
• More intuitive than complex mathematical filters
Integration with signals:
• Optional filter - can be enabled/disabled per preset
• When enabled: Only signals with rising volume momentum fire
• AUTO-DISABLED in Scalping mode (too restrictive for fast trading)
• Configurable fast/slow periods per trading style
6. ADAPTIVE SUPERTREND MULTIPLIER
Traditional SuperTrend uses fixed ATR multiplier. This system dynamically adjusts the multiplier (0.8x to 1.2x base) based on:
• Trend Strength: Price correlation over lookback period
• Volume Weight: Current volume relative to average
Benefits:
• Tighter bands in calm markets (less premature exits)
• Wider bands in volatile conditions (avoids whipsaws)
• Better adaptation to biotech, small-cap, and crypto volatility
• Optional - can be disabled for classic constant multiplier
7. VISUAL GRADIENT RIBBON
26-layer exponential gradient fill between price and SuperTrend line provides instant visual trend strength assessment:
Color System:
• Green shades - Bullish trend + volume confirmation (strongest)
• Blue shades - Bullish trend, normal volume
• Orange shades - Bearish trend + volume confirmation
• Red shades - Bearish trend (weakest)
Opacity varies based on:
• Distance from SuperTrend (farther = more opaque)
• Volume intensity (higher volume = stronger color)
The ribbon provides at-a-glance trend strength without cluttering your chart. Can be toggled on/off.
8. INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
Two-tier alert architecture for flexibility:
Automatic Alerts:
• Fire automatically on BUY and SELL signals
• Include full context: quality score, volume state, volume momentum
• One alert per bar close (alert.freq_once_per_bar_close)
• Message format: "BUY: Supertrend bullish + Quality: 65/70 | Volume: HIGH | Vol Momentum: STRONG (1.35x)"
Customizable Alert Conditions:
• Appear in TradingView's "Create Alert" dialog
• Three options: BUY Signal Only, SELL Signal Only, ANY Signal (BUY or SELL)
• Use TradingView placeholders: {{ticker}}, {{interval}}, {{close}}, {{time}}
• Fully customizable message templates
All alerts use barstate.isconfirmed - Zero repaint guarantee.
9. ANTI-REPAINT ARCHITECTURE
Every component guaranteed non-repainting:
• Entry signals: Only appear after bar close
• duration analysis boxes: Created only on confirmed SuperTrend flips
• Informative labels: Wait for bar confirmation
• Alerts: Fire once per closed bar
• Multi-timeframe data: Uses lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off
What you see in history is exactly what you would have seen in real-time. No disappearing signals, no changed duration estimates.
HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
QUICK START - 3 Steps to Trading:
Step 1: Select Your Trading Style
Open indicator settings → "Quick Setup" section → Trading Style Preset dropdown
Options:
• Auto (Detect from TF) - RECOMMENDED: Automatically configures based on your chart timeframe
• Scalping (1-5m) - For 1-5 minute charts, ultra-fast signals
• Day Trading (15m-1h) - For 15m-1h charts, balanced approach
• Swing Trading (4h-D) - For 4h-Daily charts, trend stability
• Position Trading (D-W) - For Daily-Weekly charts, long-term trends
• Custom - Manual configuration (advanced users only)
Choose "Auto" and you're done - all parameters optimize automatically.
Step 2: Understand the Signals
BUY Signal (Green Triangle Below Price):
• SuperTrend flipped bullish
• Quality score meets minimum threshold (varies by preset)
• Volume confirmation present (if filter enabled)
• Volume momentum rising (if filter enabled)
• duration analysis box shows expected trend duration
SELL Signal (Red Triangle Above Price):
• SuperTrend flipped bearish
• Quality score meets minimum threshold
• Volume confirmation present (if filter enabled)
• Volume momentum rising (if filter enabled)
• duration analysis box shows expected trend duration
Duration Analysis Box:
• Appears at SuperTrend flip (start of new trend)
• Shows median, average, and range duration estimates
• Extends to estimated endpoint based on historical data visually
• Updates mode-specific intelligence (Simple/Standard/Advanced)
Step 3: Use the Dashboard for Context
Dashboard (top-right corner) shows real-time metrics:
• Row 1 - Quality Score: Current setup rating (0-70)
• Row 2 - SuperTrend: Direction and current level
• Row 3 - Volume: Status (Spike/High/Normal/Low) with color
• Row 4 - Volatility: State (Expanding/Rising/Stable/Contracting)
• Row 5 - Volume Momentum: Ratio and trend
• Row 6 - Duration Statistics: Accuracy metrics and track record
Every cell has detailed tooltip - hover for full explanations.
SIGNAL INTERPRETATION BY QUALITY SCORE:
Excellent Setup (60-70 points):
• Quality Score: 60-70
• Volume: Spike or High
• Volatility: Expanding
• Volume Momentum: Strong (1.2x+)
• MTF Confluence (if enabled): 5-6/6
• Action: Primary trade - maximum position size (within risk limits)
• Statistical reliability: Highest - duration estimates most accurate
Strong Setup (45-59 points):
• Quality Score: 45-59
• Volume: High or Above Average
• Volatility: Rising
• Volume Momentum: Rising (1.0-1.2x)
• MTF Confluence (if enabled): 3-4/6
• Action: Standard trade - normal position size
• Statistical reliability: Good - duration estimates reliable
Good Setup (30-44 points):
• Quality Score: 30-44
• Volume: Above Average
• Volatility: Stable or Rising
• Volume Momentum: Neutral to Rising
• MTF Confluence (if enabled): 3-4/6
• Action: Cautious trade - reduced position size, wait for additional confirmation
• Statistical reliability: Moderate - duration estimates less certain
Weak Setup (Below 30 points):
• Quality Score: Below 30
• Volume: Low or Normal
• Volatility: Contracting or Stable
• Volume Momentum: Weak
• MTF Confluence (if enabled): 1-2/6
• Action: Pass or wait for improvement
• Statistical reliability: Low - duration estimates unreliable
USING duration analysis boxES FOR TRADE MANAGEMENT:
Entry Timing:
• Enter on SuperTrend flip (signal bar close)
• duration analysis box appears simultaneously
• Note the median duration - this is your expected hold time
Profit Targets:
• Conservative: Use MEDIAN duration as profit target (50% probability)
• Moderate: Use AVERAGE duration (mean of similar trends)
• Aggressive: Aim for MAX duration from range (best historical outcome)
Position Management:
• Scale out at median duration (take partial profits)
• Trail stop as trend extends beyond median
• Full exit at average duration or SuperTrend flip (whichever comes first)
• Re-evaluate if trend exceeds estimated range
analysis mode Selection:
• Simple: Clean trending markets, beginners, minimal complexity
• Standard: Most markets, most traders (recommended default)
• Advanced: Volatile markets, complex instruments, experienced traders seeking highest accuracy
Asset Type Configuration (Advanced Mode):
If using Advanced analysis mode, configure Asset Type for optimal accuracy:
• Small Cap: Stocks under $2B market cap, low liquidity
• Biotech / Speculative: Clinical-stage pharma, penny stocks, high-risk
• Blue Chip / Large Cap: S&P 500, mega-cap tech, stable large companies
• Tech Growth: High-growth tech (TSLA, NVDA, growth SaaS)
• Dividend / Value: Dividend aristocrats, value stocks, utilities
• Cyclical: Energy, materials, industrials (macro-driven)
• Crypto / High Volatility: Bitcoin, altcoins, highly volatile assets
Correct asset type selection improves Statistical accuracy by 15-20%.
RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES:
1. Stop Loss Placement:
Long positions:
• Place stop below recent swing low OR
• Place stop below SuperTrend level (whichever is tighter)
• Use 1-2 ATR distance as guideline
• Recommended: SuperTrend level (built-in volatility adjustment)
Short positions:
• Place stop above recent swing high OR
• Place stop above SuperTrend level (whichever is tighter)
• Use 1-2 ATR distance as guideline
• Recommended: SuperTrend level
2. Position Sizing by Quality Score:
• Excellent (60-70): Maximum position size (2% risk per trade)
• Strong (45-59): Standard position size (1.5% risk per trade)
• Good (30-44): Reduced position size (1% risk per trade)
• Weak (Below 30): Pass or micro position (0.5% risk - learning trades only)
3. Exit Strategy Options:
Option A - Statistical Duration-Based Exit:
• Exit at median estimated duration (conservative)
• Exit at average estimated duration (moderate)
• Trail stop beyond average duration (aggressive)
Option B - Signal-Based Exit:
• Exit on opposite signal (SELL after BUY, or vice versa)
• Exit on SuperTrend flip (trend reversal)
• Exit if quality score drops below 30 mid-trend
Option C - Hybrid (Recommended):
• Take 50% profit at median estimated duration
• Trail stop on remaining 50% using SuperTrend as trailing level
• Full exit on SuperTrend flip or quality collapse
4. Trade Filtering:
For higher win-rate (fewer trades, better quality):
• Increase minimum quality score (try 60 for swing, 50 for day trading)
• Enable volume momentum filter (ensure institutional participation)
• Require higher MTF confluence (5-6/6 alignment)
• Use Advanced analysis mode with appropriate asset type
For more opportunities (more trades, lower quality threshold):
• Decrease minimum quality score (40 for day trading, 35 for scalping)
• Disable volume momentum filter
• Lower MTF confluence requirement
• Use Simple or Standard analysis mode
SETTINGS OVERVIEW
Quick Setup Section:
• Trading Style Preset: Auto / Scalping / Day Trading / Swing / Position / Custom
Dashboard & Display:
• Show Dashboard (ON/OFF)
• Dashboard Position (9 options: Top/Middle/Bottom + Left/Center/Right)
• Text Size (Auto/Tiny/Small/Normal/Large/Huge)
• Show Ribbon Fill (ON/OFF)
• Show SuperTrend Line (ON/OFF)
• Bullish Color (default: Green)
• Bearish Color (default: Red)
• Show Entry Labels - BUY/SELL signals (ON/OFF)
• Show Info Labels - Volume events (ON/OFF)
• Label Size (Auto/Tiny/Small/Normal/Large/Huge)
Supertrend Configuration:
• ATR Length (default varies by preset: 7-21)
• ATR Multiplier Base (default varies by preset: 2.0-4.0)
• Use Adaptive Multiplier (ON/OFF) - Dynamic 0.8x-1.2x adjustment
• Smoothing Factor (0.0-0.5) - EMA smoothing applied to bands
• Neutral Bars After Flip (0-10) - Hide ST immediately after flip
Volume Momentum:
• Enable Volume Momentum Filter (ON/OFF)
• Fast Period (default varies by preset: 3-20)
• Slow Period (default varies by preset: 10-50)
Volume Analysis:
• Volume MA Length (default varies by preset: 10-50)
• High Volume Threshold (default: 1.5x)
• Spike Threshold (default: 2.5x)
• Low Volume Threshold (default: 0.7x)
Quality Filters:
• Minimum Quality Score (0-70, varies by preset)
• Require Volume Confirmation (ON/OFF)
Trend Duration Analysis:
• Show Duration Analysis (ON/OFF) - Display duration analysis boxes
• analysis mode - Simple / Standard / Advanced
• Asset Type - 7 options (Small Cap, Biotech, Blue Chip, Tech Growth, Dividend, Cyclical, Crypto)
• Use Exponential Weighting (ON/OFF) - Recent trends weighted more
• Decay Factor (0.5-0.99) - How much more recent trends matter
• Structure Lookback (3-30) - Pivot detection period for support/resistance
• Proximity Threshold (xATR) - How close to level qualifies as "near"
• Enable Error Learning (ON/OFF) - System learns from estimation errors
• Memory Depth (3-20) - How many past errors to remember
Box Visual Settings:
• duration analysis box Border Color
• duration analysis box Background Color
• duration analysis box Text Color
• duration analysis box Border Width
• duration analysis box Transparency
Multi-Timeframe (Optional Feature):
• Enable MTF Confluence (ON/OFF)
• Minimum Alignment Required (0-6)
• Individual timeframe enable/disable toggles
• Custom timeframe selection options
All preset configurations override manual inputs except when "Custom" is selected.
ADVANCED FEATURES
1. Scalpel Mode (Optional)
Advanced pullback entry system that waits for healthy retracements within established trends before signaling entry:
• Monitors price distance from SuperTrend levels
• Requires pullback to configurable range (default: 30-50%)
• Ensures trend remains intact before entry signal
• Reduces whipsaw and false breakouts
• Inspired by Mark Minervini's VCP pullback entries
Best for: Swing traders and day traders seeking precision entries
Scalpers: Consider disabling for faster entries
2. Error Learning System (Advanced analysis mode Only)
The system learns from its own estimation errors:
• Tracks last 10-20 completed duration estimates (configurable memory depth)
• Calculates error ratio for each: estimated duration / Actual Duration
• If system consistently over-estimates: Applies negative correction (-15%)
• If system consistently under-estimates: Applies positive correction (+15%)
• Adapts to current market regime automatically
This self-correction mechanism improves accuracy over time as the system gathers more data on your specific symbol and timeframe.
3. Regime Detection (Advanced analysis mode Only)
Automatically detects whether market is in trending or choppy regime:
• Compares last 3 trends to historical average
• Recent trends 20%+ longer → Trending regime (+20% to estimates)
• Recent trends 20%+ shorter → Choppy regime (-20% to estimates)
• Applied separately to bullish and bearish trends
Helps duration estimates adapt to changing market conditions without manual intervention.
4. Exponential Weighting
Option to weight recent trends more heavily than distant history:
• Default decay factor: 0.9
• Recent trends get higher weight in statistical calculations
• Older trends gradually decay in importance
• Rationale: Recent market behavior more relevant than old data
• Can be disabled for equal weighting
5. Backtest Statistics
System backtests its own duration estimates using historical data:
• Walks through past trends chronologically
• Calculates what duration estimate WOULD have been at each flip
• Compares to actual duration that occurred
• Displays accuracy metrics in duration analysis boxes and dashboard
• Helps assess statistical reliability on your specific chart
Note: Backtest uses only data available AT THE TIME of each historical flip (no lookahead bias).
TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
• Pine Script Version: v6
• Indicator Type: Overlay (draws on price chart)
• Max Boxes: 500 (for duration analysis box storage)
• Max Bars Back: 5000 (for comprehensive historical analysis)
• Security Calls: 1 (for MTF if enabled - optimized)
• Repainting: NO - All signals and duration estimates confirmed on bar close
• Lookahead Bias: NO - All HTF data properly offset, all duration estimates use only historical data
• Real-time Updates: YES - Dashboard and quality scores update live
• Alert Capable: YES - Both automatic alerts and customizable alert conditions
• Multi-Symbol: Works on stocks, crypto, forex, futures, indices
Performance Optimization:
• Conditional calculations (duration analysis can be disabled to reduce load)
• Efficient array management (circular buffers for trend storage)
• Streamlined gradient rendering (26 layers, can be toggled off)
• Smart label cooldown system (prevents label spam)
• Optimized similarity matching (analyzes only relevant trends)
Data Requirements:
• Minimum 50-100 bars for initial duration analysis (builds historical database)
• Optimal: 500+ bars for robust statistical analysis
• Longer history = more accurate duration estimates
• Works on any timeframe from 1 minute to monthly
KNOWN LIMITATIONS
• Trending Markets Only: Performs best in clear trends. May generate false signals in choppy/sideways markets (use quality score filtering and regime detection to mitigate)
• Lagging Nature: Like all trend-following systems, signals occur AFTER trend establishment, not at exact tops/bottoms. Use duration analysis boxes to set realistic profit targets.
• Initial Learning Period: Duration analysis system requires 10-15 completed trends to build reliable historical database. Early duration estimates less accurate (first few weeks on new symbol/timeframe).
• Visual Load: 26-layer gradient ribbon may slow performance on older devices. Disable ribbon if experiencing lag.
• Statistical accuracy Variables: Duration estimates are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Accuracy varies by:
- Market regime (trending vs choppy)
- Asset volatility characteristics
- Quality of historical pattern matches
- Timeframe traded (higher TF = more reliable)
• Not Best Suitable For:
- Ultra-short-term scalping (sub-1-minute charts)
- Mean-reversion strategies (designed for trend-following)
- Range-bound trading (requires trending conditions)
- News-driven spikes (estimates based on technical patterns, not fundamentals)
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Q: Does this indicator repaint?
A: Absolutely not. All signals, duration analysis boxes, labels, and alerts use barstate.isconfirmed checks. They only appear after the bar closes. What you see in history is exactly what you would have seen in real-time. Zero repaint guarantee.
Q: How accurate are the trend duration estimates?
A: Accuracy varies by mode, market conditions, and historical data quality:
• Simple mode: 60-70% accuracy (within ±20% of actual duration)
• Standard mode: 70-80% accuracy (within ±20% of actual duration)
• Advanced mode: 75-85% accuracy (within ±20% of actual duration)
Best accuracy achieved on:
• Higher timeframes (4H, Daily, Weekly)
• Trending markets (not choppy/sideways)
• Assets with consistent behavior (Blue Chip, Large Cap)
• After 20+ historical trends analyzed (builds robust database)
Remember: All duration estimates are statistical calculations based on historical patterns, not guarantees.
Q: Which analysis mode should I use?
A:
• Simple: Beginners, clean trending markets, want minimal complexity
• Standard: Most traders, general market conditions (RECOMMENDED DEFAULT)
• Advanced: Experienced traders, volatile/complex markets (biotech, small-cap, crypto), seeking maximum accuracy
Advanced mode requires correct Asset Type configuration for optimal results.
Q: What's the difference between the trading style presets?
A: Each preset optimizes ALL parameters for a specific trading approach:
• Scalping: Ultra-sensitive (ATR 7, Mult 2.0), more signals, shorter holds
• Day Trading: Balanced (ATR 10, Mult 2.5), moderate signals, intraday holds
• Swing Trading: Stable (ATR 14, Mult 3.0), fewer signals, multi-day holds
• Position Trading: Very stable (ATR 21, Mult 4.0), rare signals, week/month holds
Auto mode automatically selects based on your chart timeframe.
Q: Should I use Auto mode or manually select a preset?
A: Auto mode is recommended for most traders. It automatically matches settings to your timeframe and re-optimizes if you switch charts. Only use manual preset selection if:
• You want scalping settings on a 15m chart (overriding auto-detection)
• You want swing settings on a 1h chart (more conservative than auto would give)
• You're testing different approaches on same timeframe
Q: Can I use this for scalping and day trading?
A: Absolutely! The preset system is specifically designed for all trading styles:
• Select "Scalping (1-5m)" for 1-5 minute charts
• Select "Day Trading (15m-1h)" for 15m-1h charts
• Or use "Auto" mode and it configures automatically
Volume momentum filter is auto-disabled in Scalping mode for faster signals.
Q: What is Volume Momentum and why does it matter?
A: Volume Momentum compares short-term volume (fast MA) to long-term volume (slow MA). It answers: "Is money flowing into this asset faster now than historically?"
Why it matters:
• Volume often leads price (early warning system)
• Confirms institutional participation (smart money)
• No lag like price-based indicators
• More intuitive than complex mathematical filters
When the ratio is above 1.2, you have strong evidence that institutions are accumulating (bullish) or distributing (bearish).
Q: How do I set up alerts?
A: Two options:
Option 1 - Automatic Alerts:
1. Right-click on chart → Add Alert
2. Condition: Select this indicator
3. Choose "Any alert() function call"
4. Configure notification method (app, email, webhook)
5. You'll receive detailed alerts on every BUY and SELL signal
Option 2 - Customizable Alert Conditions:
1. Right-click on chart → Add Alert
2. Condition: Select this indicator
3. You'll see three options in dropdown:
- "BUY Signal" (long signals only)
- "SELL Signal" (short signals only)
- "ANY Signal" (both BUY and SELL)
4. Choose desired option and customize message template
5. Uses TradingView placeholders: {{ticker}}, {{close}}, {{time}}, etc.
All alerts fire only on confirmed bar close (no repaint).
Q: What is Scalpel Mode and should I use it?
A: Scalpel Mode waits for healthy pullbacks within established trends before signaling entry. It reduces whipsaws and improves entry timing.
Recommended ON for:
• Swing traders (want precision entries on pullbacks)
• Day traders (willing to wait for better prices)
• Risk-averse traders (prefer fewer but higher-quality entries)
Recommended OFF for:
• Scalpers (need immediate entries, can't wait for pullbacks)
• Momentum traders (want to enter on breakout, not pullback)
• Aggressive traders (prefer more opportunities over precision)
Q: Why do some duration estimates show wider ranges than others?
A: Range width reflects historical trend variability:
• Narrow range: Similar historical trends had consistent durations (high confidence)
• Wide range: Similar historical trends had varying durations (lower confidence)
Wide ranges often occur:
• Early in analysis (fewer historical trends to learn from)
• In volatile/choppy markets (inconsistent trend behavior)
• On lower timeframes (more noise, less consistency)
The median and average still provide useful targets even when range is wide.
Q: Can I customize the dashboard position and appearance?
A: Yes! Dashboard settings include:
• Position: 9 options (Top/Middle/Bottom + Left/Center/Right)
• Text Size: Auto, Tiny, Small, Normal, Large, Huge
• Show/Hide: Toggle entire dashboard on/off
Choose position that doesn't overlap important price action on your specific chart.
Q: Which timeframe should I trade on?
A: Depends on your trading style and time availability:
• 1-5 minute: Active scalping, requires constant monitoring
• 15m-1h: Day trading, check few times per session
• 4h-Daily: Swing trading, check once or twice daily
• Daily-Weekly: Position trading, check weekly
General principle: Higher timeframes produce:
• Fewer signals (less frequent)
• Higher quality setups (stronger confirmations)
• More reliable duration estimates (better statistical data)
• Less noise (clearer trends)
Start with Daily chart if new to trading. Move to lower timeframes as you gain experience.
Q: Does this work on all markets (stocks, crypto, forex)?
A: Yes, it works on all markets with trending characteristics:
Excellent for:
• Stocks (especially growth and momentum names)
• Crypto (BTC, ETH, major altcoins)
• Futures (indices, commodities)
• Forex majors (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.)
Best results on:
• Trending markets (not range-bound)
• Liquid instruments (tight spreads, good fills)
• Volatile assets (clear trend development)
Less effective on:
• Range-bound/sideways markets
• Ultra-low volatility instruments
• Illiquid small-caps (use caution)
Configure Asset Type (in Advanced analysis mode) to match your instrument for best accuracy.
Q: How many signals should I expect per day/week?
A: Highly variable based on:
By Timeframe:
• 1-5 minute: 5-15 signals per session
• 15m-1h: 2-5 signals per day
• 4h-Daily: 2-5 signals per week
• Daily-Weekly: 1-2 signals per month
By Market Volatility:
• High volatility = more SuperTrend flips = more signals
• Low volatility = fewer flips = fewer signals
By Quality Filter:
• Higher threshold (60-70) = fewer but better signals
• Lower threshold (30-40) = more signals, lower quality
By Volume Momentum Filter:
• Enabled = Fewer signals (only volume-confirmed)
• Disabled = More signals (all SuperTrend flips)
Adjust quality threshold and filters to match your desired signal frequency.
Q: What's the difference between entry labels and info labels?
A:
Entry Labels (BUY/SELL):
• Your primary trading signals
• Based on SuperTrend flip + all confirmations (quality, volume, momentum)
• Include quality score and confirmation icons
• These are actionable entry points
Info Labels (Volume Spike):
• Additional market context
• Show volume events that may support or contradict trend
• 8-bar cooldown to prevent spam
• NOT necessarily entry points - contextual information only
Control separately: Can show entry labels without info labels (recommended for clean charts).
Q: Can I combine this with other indicators?
A: Absolutely! This works well with:
• RSI: For divergences and overbought/oversold conditions
• Support/Resistance: Confluence with key levels
• Fibonacci Retracements: Pullback targets in Scalpel Mode
• Price Action Patterns: Flags, pennants, cup-and-handle
• MACD: Additional momentum confirmation
• Bollinger Bands: Volatility context
This indicator provides trend direction and duration estimates - complement with other tools for entry refinement and additional confluence.
Q: Why did I get a low-quality signal? Can I filter them out?
A: Yes! Increase the Minimum Quality Score in settings.
If you're seeing signals with quality below your preference:
• Day Trading: Set minimum to 50
• Swing Trading: Set minimum to 60
• Position Trading: Set minimum to 70
Only signals meeting the threshold will appear. This reduces frequency but improves win-rate.
Q: How do I interpret the MTF Confluence count?
A: Shows how many of 6 timeframes agree with current trend:
• 6/6 aligned: Perfect agreement (extremely rare, highest confidence)
• 5/6 aligned: Very strong alignment (high confidence)
• 4/6 aligned: Good alignment (standard quality setup)
• 3/6 aligned: Moderate alignment (acceptable)
• 2/6 aligned: Weak alignment (caution)
• 1/6 aligned: Very weak (likely counter-trend)
Higher confluence typically correlates with longer, stronger trends. However, MTF analysis is optional - you can disable it and rely solely on quality scoring.
Q: Is this suitable for beginners?
A: Yes, but requires foundational knowledge:
You should understand:
• Basic trend-following concepts (higher highs, higher lows)
• Risk management principles (position sizing, stop losses)
• How to read candlestick charts
• What volume and volatility mean
Beginner-friendly features:
• Auto preset mode (zero configuration)
• Quality scoring (tells you signal strength)
• Dashboard tooltips (hover for explanations)
• duration analysis boxes (visual profit targets)
Recommended for beginners:
1. Start with "Auto" or "Swing Trading" preset on Daily chart
2. Use Standard Analysis Mode (not Advanced)
3. Set minimum quality to 60 (fewer but better signals)
4. Paper trade first for 2-4 weeks
5. Study methodology references (Minervini, O'Neil, Zanger)
Q: What is the Asset Type setting and why does it matter?
A: Asset Type (in Advanced analysis mode) adjusts duration estimates based on volatility characteristics:
• Small Cap: Explosive moves, extended trends (+30-40%)
• Biotech / Speculative: Parabolic potential, news-driven (+40%)
• Blue Chip / Large Cap: Baseline, steady trends (0% adjustment)
• Tech Growth: Momentum-driven, longer trends (+20%)
• Dividend / Value: Slower, grinding trends (-20%)
• Cyclical: Macro-driven, variable (±10%)
• Crypto / High Volatility: Parabolic potential (+30%)
Correct configuration improves Statistical accuracy by 15-20%. Using Blue Chip settings on a biotech stock may underestimate trend length (you'll exit too early).
Q: Can I backtest this indicator?
A: Yes! TradingView's Strategy Tester works with this indicator's signals.
To backtest:
1. Note the entry conditions (SuperTrend flip + quality threshold + filters)
2. Create a strategy script using same logic
3. Run Strategy Tester on historical data
Additionally, the indicator includes BUILT-IN duration estimate validation:
• System backtests its own duration estimates
• Shows accuracy metrics in dashboard and duration analysis boxes
• Helps assess reliability on your specific symbol/timeframe
Q: Why does Volume Momentum auto-disable in Scalping mode?
A: Scalping requires ultra-fast entries to catch quick moves. Volume Momentum filter adds friction by requiring volume confirmation before signaling, which can cause missed opportunities in rapid scalping.
Scalping preset is optimized for speed and frequency - the filter is counterproductive for that style. It remains enabled for Day Trading, Swing Trading, and Position Trading presets where patience improves results.
You can manually enable it in Custom mode if desired.
Q: How much historical data do I need for accurate duration estimates?
A:
Minimum: 50-100 bars (indicator will function but duration estimates less reliable)
Recommended: 500+ bars (robust statistical database)
Optimal: 1000+ bars (maximum Statistical accuracy)
More history = more completed trends = better pattern matching = more accurate duration estimates.
New symbols or newly-switched timeframes will have lower Statistical accuracy initially. Allow 2-4 weeks for the system to build historical database.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
No Guarantee of Profit:
This indicator is an educational tool and does not guarantee any specific trading results. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Duration estimates are statistical calculations based on historical patterns and are not guarantees of future performance.
Past Performance:
Historical backtest results and Statistical accuracy statistics do not guarantee future performance. Market conditions change constantly. What worked historically may not work in current or future markets.
Not Financial Advice:
This indicator provides technical analysis signals and statistical duration estimates only. It is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Risk Warning:
Trading stocks, options, futures, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. You can lose all of your invested capital. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital you can lose without affecting your lifestyle.
Testing Required:
Always test this indicator on a demo account or with paper trading before risking real capital. Understand how it works in different market conditions. Verify Statistical accuracy on your specific instruments and timeframes before trusting it with real money.
User Responsibility:
You are solely responsible for your trading decisions. The developer assumes no liability for trading losses, incorrect duration estimates, software errors, or any other damages incurred while using this indicator.
Statistical Estimation Limitations:
Trend Duration estimates are statistical estimates based on historical pattern matching. They are NOT guarantees. Actual trend durations may differ significantly from duration estimates due to unforeseen news events, market regime changes, or lack of historical precedent for current conditions.
CREDITS & ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Methodology Inspiration:
• Mark Minervini - Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) concepts and pullback entry techniques
• William O'Neil - Volume analysis principles and CANSLIM institutional buying patterns
• Dan Zanger - Momentum breakout strategies and volatility expansion entries
Technical Components:
• SuperTrend calculation - Classic ATR-based trend indicator (public domain)
• Statistical analysis - Standard median, average, range calculations
• k-Nearest Neighbors - Classic machine learning similarity matching concept
• Multi-timeframe analysis - Standard request.security implementation in Pine Script
For questions, feedback, or support, please comment below or send a private message.
Happy Trading!
PnL MonitorThe PnL Monitor is a customizable tool designed to help traders track the Profit and Loss (PnL) of up to 20 currency pairs or assets in real-time. This script provides a clear and organized table that displays the entry price, and PnL percentage for each pair, making it an essential tool for monitoring open positions or tracking potential trades.
Key Features:
Multi-Asset Tracking:
Monitor up to 20 currency pairs or assets simultaneously. Simply input the pair symbol and your entry price, and the script will calculate the PnL in real-time.
Dynamic Table Positioning:
Choose where the table appears on your chart with the Table Position input. Options include:
Top Left
Top Right
Bottom Left
Bottom Right
Real-Time PnL Calculation:
The script fetches the current price of each pair and calculates the PnL percentage based on your entry price. Positive PnL is highlighted in green, while negative PnL is highlighted in red.
Exchange and Pair Separation:
The script automatically separates the exchange name (if provided) from the pair symbol, making it easier to identify the source of the data.
Customizable Inputs:
Add or remove pairs as needed.
Leave the price field blank for pairs you don’t want to track.
How to Use:
Input Your Pairs:
In the script settings, input the symbol of the pair (e.g., NASDAQ:AAPL or BTCUSD) and your entry price. Leave the price field blank for pairs you don’t want to track.
Choose Table Position:
Select where you want the table to appear on your chart.
Monitor PnL:
The table will automatically update with the current price and PnL percentage for each pair.
Why Use This Script?
Efficiency: Track multiple pairs in one place without switching charts.
Clarity: Easily identify profitable and losing positions at a glance.
Flexibility: Customize the table to fit your trading style and preferences.
Ideal For:
Forex, crypto, and stock traders managing multiple positions.
4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis - Detailed User Guide
OVERVIEW
This indicator is a data-driven probability framework for NQ Futures traders that predicts High-of-Day (HOD) and Low-of-Day (LOD) placement based on statistical analysis of 3,136+ trading days (2013-2025). Unlike traditional indicators that rely on technical signals, this tool uses checkpoint-based state analysis with zero forward-looking bias to provide real-time probabilities of whether the daily range is complete.
⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All probabilities, patterns, and statistics were derived from a 10+ year historical dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results.
CORE CONCEPT: CHECKPOINT METHODOLOGY
What is a Checkpoint?
A checkpoint occurs when a 4-hour candle closes. At this moment, the indicator "locks" the current market state and calculates probabilities for the remainder of the trading day. The key innovation is that state never changes after locking - probabilities remain constant throughout the session until the next checkpoint.
The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST):
6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open
10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session
2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London
6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open
10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning
2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon (3 hours only)
Five Checkpoints:
10PM Checkpoint - After 6PM closes
2AM Checkpoint - After 10PM closes
6AM Checkpoint - After 2AM closes
10AM Checkpoint - After 6AM closes (most critical)
2PM Checkpoint - After 10AM closes (highest conviction fade signals)
HOW IT WORKS: THE THREE-FACTOR STATE SYSTEM
At each checkpoint, the indicator evaluates three critical factors to determine probability:
1. ELIMINATIONS (Quantity)
An "elimination" occurs when a candle trades beyond a previous candle's high or low, effectively removing that candle from contention for HOD/LOD.
Example at 10AM Checkpoint:
6PM high = 18,000
10PM high = 18,050 (eliminates 6PM high)
2AM high = 18,100 (eliminates 10PM high)
6AM high = 18,075 (does NOT eliminate 2AM high)
Result: 2 eliminations
The number of eliminations indicates trend strength:
0 eliminations = Range-bound, high probability extremes already set
1-2 eliminations = Moderate trend
3-4 eliminations = Strong trend day, range likely to extend
2. STRUCTURE (Pattern Type)
The indicator distinguishes between two elimination patterns:
Sequential: Eliminations occur in order (6pm → 10pm → 2am → 6am → 10am)
Indicates smooth, consistent trend
Example: 10pm eliminates 6pm, then 2am eliminates 10pm (sequential)
Skip: Eliminations skip candles
Indicates choppy/reversal behavior
Example: 2am eliminates 6pm but NOT 10pm (skip pattern)
Why it matters: Skip patterns show 2X probability differences compared to sequential patterns. At 10AM checkpoint with 2 eliminations, skip pattern shows 64% participation rate vs 36% for sequential pattern with previous survived.
3. PREVIOUS CANDLE STATUS
Did the immediately prior candle get eliminated?
Eliminated: Previous candle's high/low was taken out
Indicates relentless trend
Higher probability of continuation
Survived: Previous candle's high/low still intact
Indicates trend pause
Higher probability of mean reversion or range completion
Critical insight: High and low are tracked separately. At 2AM checkpoint, 10PM might have eliminated 6PM high (relentless uptrend) but NOT eliminated 6PM low (low survived). This creates different probabilities for HOD vs LOD.
VISUAL ELEMENTS
4-Hour Candle Boxes
Each 4H candle is displayed as a colored box showing its range:
Gray = 6PM (evening)
Blue = 10PM (Asia)
Purple = 2AM (early London)
Orange = 6AM (London + NY Open) - THE CURVE SESSION
Teal = 10AM (NY morning) - THE MONEY SESSION
Red = 2PM (NY afternoon) - THE FADE SESSION
HOD/LOD Lines
Black horizontal lines extend from current HOD/LOD with labels showing:
Which candle set the extreme
Current price level
THE CHECKPOINT TABLE EXPLAINED
Table Header:
Shows current checkpoint (e.g., "🎯 10AM CHECKPOINT") or "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" if between checkpoints.
Main Metrics (Side-by-Side Comparison):
The table displays HOD and LOD separately in two columns because they can have different patterns:
METRIC
HODLOD Eliminations
Number of candles eliminated so far for highs
Number of candles eliminated so far for lows
Structure
Sequential or Skip pattern for highs
Sequential or Skip pattern for lows
Prev Candle
Was previous candle's high eliminated or did it survive?
Was previous candle's low eliminated or did it survive?
Pattern
Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early
Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early
Color Coding:
Structure Row:
White = Sequential (smooth trend)
Orange = Skip (choppy/reversal)
Previous Candle Row:
Red = Eliminated (relentless trend continuing)
Blue = Survived (trend paused)
Pattern Row:
Red = Relentless (previous eliminated + sequential = strong trend)
Blue = Paused (previous survived + sequential = trend pause)
Orange = Skip/Chop (skip pattern = reversal likely)
Gray = Early (0-1 eliminations, too early to tell)
Probability Section:
Prob Already In: Percentage chance that HOD/LOD has already been set
Color coding:
Green (>75%) = High confidence extreme is in, FADE
Yellow (45-75%) = Moderate confidence
Red (<45%) = Low confidence extreme is in, CONTINUATION likely
Sample Size: Shows how many historical occurrences match this exact state (n=XXX)
Larger samples = higher confidence
Most common states have n=500-2,000+
Current: Which candle currently holds HOD/LOD
Pattern Guide Section:
Appears when you have 2+ eliminations. Provides interpretation:
📈 Paused: Trend has paused, 2pm more likely to set extreme
📈 Relentless: Breaking higher/lower, continuation expected
📈 Skip/Chop: Choppy pattern, next session likely
Same for lows with 📉 symbol.
PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES
Example 1: High Conviction Fade Setup
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 0 (both HOD/LOD)
Structure: None (no eliminations yet)
Prev Candle: Survived
Table shows:
HOD Prob Already In: 68.9% (n=582)
LOD Prob Already In: 73.6% (n=785)
Interpretation: Range is likely complete. Fade extremes. With 0 eliminations and 70%+ probability, this is a high-conviction mean reversion signal.
Example 2: Strong Continuation Signal
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 3 (both HOD/LOD)
Structure: Sequential
Prev Candle: Eliminated (relentless)
Table shows:
HOD Prob Already In: 29.8% (n=1,758)
LOD Prob Already In: 34.6% (n=1,451)
Pattern: 📈 Relentless / 📉 Relentless
Interpretation: Strong trend day. Only 30-35% chance range is complete. Look for breakouts in direction of trend. 10AM and 2PM likely to extend range.
Example 3: Pattern Structure Edge
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 2 (HOD)
Structure: Skip (orange background)
Prev Candle: Eliminated vs Alternative State:
Eliminations: 2 (HOD)
Structure: Sequential
Prev Candle: Survived
Result: Skip pattern shows 64% chance 10AM participates vs 36% for sequential+survived. Skip pattern = 2X more likely to see 10AM high. This structural edge is unique to this indicator.
Example 4: Different HOD vs LOD Patterns
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
HOD: 2 eliminations, Sequential, Previous Eliminated (Relentless) = 46.7% in
LOD: 2 eliminations, Skip, Previous Eliminated (Choppy) = 48.4% in
Interpretation: Highs show relentless uptrend but lows show choppy behavior. This divergence suggests potential for upside continuation but with volatility. Not a clean trend day.
KEY CHECKPOINT STATISTICS (DERIVED FROM 10-YEAR DATASET)
10PM Checkpoint (After 6PM):
Very early in day
13.5% HOD in, 21.3% LOD in
Most likely outcome: Range extends into 6AM/10AM
2AM Checkpoint (After 10PM):
Still early
With 0 elims: 22-31% in (balanced)
With 1 elim: 8-12% in (strong trend signal)
6AM Checkpoint (After 2AM) - Critical Decision Point:
With 0 elims: 40-47% in (balanced, could go either way)
With 2 elims: 18-22% in (strong trend into 6AM/10AM)
Most likely outcome: 10AM sets extremes (~38-40%)
10AM Checkpoint (After 6AM) - Highest Conviction:
With 0 elims: 69-74% in → FADE (high confidence)
With 3 elims: 30-35% in → BUY/SELL continuation
This is THE money checkpoint for high-probability setups
2PM Checkpoint (After 10AM) - Maximum Fade Conviction:
With 0-3 elims: 67-95% in → FADE strongly
With 4 elims: 49-61% in (monster trend, weaker fade)
2PM is primarily a mean reversion session
UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING DATA
All probabilities are derived from analysis of:
Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100)
Timeframe: 1-minute bars
Period: January 2013 - December 2025
Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days
Methodology: Real-time checkpoint analysis with zero forward-looking bias
Why NQ-Specific?
Each futures contract has unique:
Session characteristics (6AM in NQ shows 60-64% curve behavior, other sessions differ)
Timing patterns (NQ's 10AM session has 67-74% immediate takeouts)
Volatility profiles (NQ 2PM shows 56% bullish bias vs ES shows different bias)
Using this indicator on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce inaccurate results because the probability tables are NQ-specific.
ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
What Makes This Indicator Unique:
Zero Forward-Looking Bias: State locks at checkpoint moments. Traditional indicators recalculate continuously, introducing bias. This indicator freezes probabilities at the exact moment a 4H candle closes.
Three-Factor State System: Combines elimination count, structure pattern, and previous candle status. Most indicators only track one dimension. This multi-factor approach provides 2X+ probability differentials.
Separate HOD/LOD Tracking: Highs and lows can have different patterns simultaneously (relentless high with choppy low). This indicator tracks them separately for precision.
Pattern Structure Analysis: Distinguishes between sequential and skip patterns, a concept not found in standard indicators. Skip patterns show mean reversion while sequential shows continuation.
10+ Year Statistical Foundation: Every probability is backed by hundreds to thousands of historical occurrences (sample sizes shown in table). Not based on theories or assumptions.
Checkpoint-Specific Probabilities: Different checkpoints have different probability profiles. 10AM checkpoint with 0 eliminations = 70%+ fade. 6AM checkpoint with same state = 40%+ fade. Context matters.
HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR
Step 1: Wait for Checkpoint
The table will show "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" until a 4H candle closes. Probabilities are only valid at checkpoint moments.
Step 2: Read the State
Check the three factors:
How many eliminations?
Sequential or skip?
Previous candle eliminated or survived?
Step 3: Check Probability
Look at "Prob Already In" percentage:
>75% (Green) = High confidence extreme is set, fade
45-75% (Yellow) = Moderate confidence, use other confirmation
<45% (Red) = Low confidence extreme is set, continuation likely
Step 4: Check Sample Size
Larger sample (n=1,000+) = higher confidence
Smaller sample (n=50-200) = use caution, edge is real but less robust
Step 5: Consider Pattern
Read the pattern guide:
Relentless = trend continuing
Paused = trend stalled, mean reversion
Skip/Chop = reversal/range likely
Step 6: Compare HOD vs LOD
If both show similar patterns = cleaner signal
If divergent patterns = complex day, be cautious
BEST PRACTICES
Focus on 10AM and 2PM checkpoints - These have the highest conviction signals
Combine with price action - Don't fade blindly at 90% probability if price is breaking out strongly
Larger samples = better edges - Prioritize setups with n=500+
Watch for pattern divergence - When HOD and LOD show different patterns, expect complexity
Remember session characteristics:
6AM = THE CURVE SESSION (60-64% mean reversion when Q2 breaks Q1)
10AM = THE MONEY SESSION (67-74% immediate takeouts, highest conviction)
2PM = THE FADE SESSION (67-95% extremes already in)
SETTINGS
Show 4H Candle Boxes - Display colored boxes for each 4H candle
Show HOD/LOD Lines - Display horizontal lines at current extremes
Show Checkpoint Analysis - Display probability table
Table Position - Choose where to place the checkpoint table
Table Size - Tiny/Small/Normal
Colors - Customize box colors for each session
LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS
NQ FUTURES ONLY - Do not use on other instruments
Not a standalone system - Use as confluence with your strategy
Historical data - Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
Sample size variance - Some states have smaller samples, use judgment
Requires understanding - Read this guide fully before trading with this tool
FINAL NOTES
This indicator represents 10+ years of NQ futures data distilled into actionable, real-time probabilities. The checkpoint methodology ensures zero forward-looking bias, while the three-factor state system provides granular edge that traditional indicators miss.
Remember: This tool provides probabilities, not certainties. Trade with proper risk management, and use this as one input in your decision-making process.
Globex Trap w/ percentage [SLICKRICK]Globex Trap w/ Percentage
Overview
The Globex Trap w/ Percentage indicator is a powerful tool designed to help traders identify high-probability trading opportunities by analyzing price action during the Globex (overnight) session and regular trading hours. By combining Globex session ranges with Supply & Demand zones, this indicator highlights potential "trap" areas where significant price reactions may occur. Additionally, it calculates the Globex session range as a percentage of the daily Average True Range (ATR), providing valuable context for assessing market volatility.
This indicator is ideal for traders in futures markets or other instruments traded during Globex sessions, offering a visual and analytical edge for spotting key price levels and potential reversals or breakouts.
Key Features
Globex Session Tracking:
Visualizes the high and low of the Globex session (default: 3:00 PM to 6:30 AM PST) with customizable time settings.
Displays a semi-transparent box to mark the Globex range, with labels for "Globex High" and "Globex Low."
Calculates the Globex range as a percentage of the daily ATR, displayed as a label for quick reference.
Supply & Demand Zones:
Identifies Supply & Demand zones during regular trading hours (default: 6:00 AM to 8:00 AM PST) with customizable time settings.
Draws semi-transparent boxes to highlight these zones, aiding in the identification of key support and resistance areas.
Trap Area Identification:
Highlights potential trap zones where Globex ranges and Supply & Demand zones overlap, indicating areas where price may reverse or consolidate due to trapped traders.
Customizable Settings:
Adjust Globex and Supply & Demand session times to suit your trading preferences.
Toggle visibility of Globex and Supply & Demand zones independently.
Customize box colors for better chart readability.
Set the lookback period (default: 10 days) to control how many historical zones are displayed.
Configure the ATR length (default: 14) for the percentage calculation.
PST Timezone Default:
All times are based on Pacific Standard Time (PST) by default, ensuring accurate session tracking for users in this timezone or those aligning with U.S. West Coast market hours.
Recommended Usage
Timeframes: Best used on 1-hour charts or lower (e.g., 15-minute, 5-minute) for precise entry and exit points.
Markets: Optimized for futures (e.g., ES, NQ, CL) and other instruments traded during Globex sessions.
Historical Data: Ensure at least 10 days of historical data for optimal visualization of zones.
Strategy Integration: Use the indicator to identify potential reversals or breakouts at Globex highs/lows or Supply & Demand zones. The ATR percentage provides context for whether the Globex range is significant relative to typical daily volatility.
How It Works
Globex Session:
Tracks the high and low prices during the user-defined Globex session (default: 3:00 PM to 6:30 AM PST).
When the session ends, a box is drawn from the start to the end of the session, capturing the high and low prices.
Labels are placed at the midpoint of the session, showing "Globex High," "Globex Low," and the range as a percentage of the daily ATR (e.g., "75.23% of Daily ATR").
Supply & Demand Zones:
Tracks the high and low prices during the user-defined regular trading hours (default: 6:00 AM to 8:00 AM PST).
Draws a box to mark these zones, which often act as key support or resistance levels.
ATR Percentage:
Calculates the Globex range (high minus low) and divides it by the daily ATR to express it as a percentage.
This metric helps traders gauge whether the overnight price movement is significant compared to the instrument’s typical volatility.
Time Handling:
Uses PST (UTC-8) for all time calculations, ensuring accurate session timing for users aligning with this timezone.
Properly handles overnight sessions that cross midnight, ensuring seamless tracking.
Input Settings
Globex Session Settings:
Show Globex Session: Enable/disable Globex session visualization (default: true).
Globex Start/End Time: Set the start and end times for the Globex session (default: 3:00 PM to 6:30 AM PST).
Globex Box Color: Customize the color of the Globex session box (default: semi-transparent gray).
Supply & Demand Zone Settings:
Show Supply & Demand Zone: Enable/disable zone visualization (default: true).
Zone Start/End Time: Set the start and end times for Supply & Demand zones (default: 6:00 AM to 8:00 AM PST).
Zone Box Color: Customize the color of the zone box (default: semi-transparent aqua).
General Settings:
Days to Look Back: Number of historical days to display zones (default: 10).
ATR Length: Period for calculating the daily ATR (default: 14).
Notes
All times are in Pacific Standard Time (PST). Adjust the start and end times if your market operates in a different timezone or if you prefer different session windows.
The indicator is optimized for instruments with active Globex sessions, such as futures. Results may vary for non-24/5 markets.
A typo in the label "Globe Low" (should be "Globex Low") will be corrected in future updates.
Ensure your TradingView chart is set to display sufficient historical data to view the full lookback period.
Why Use This Indicator?
The Globex Trap w/ Percentage indicator provides a unique combination of session-based range analysis, Supply & Demand zone identification, and volatility context via the ATR percentage. Whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, or scalper, this tool helps you:
Pinpoint key price levels where institutional traders may act.
Assess the significance of overnight price movements relative to daily volatility.
Identify potential trap zones for high-probability setups.
Customize the indicator to fit your trading style and market preferences.
0830-0845 High/Low Marker (Accurate Start + History)This indicator marks the high and low of the 15-minute candle between 08:30 and 08:45 (local time) of the trading session. The high and low are tracked dynamically, with the lines drawn once the 08:45 candle closes.
Key Features:
Session-based Tracking: Automatically tracks and records the high and low of the 15-minute period starting at 08:30 and ending at 08:45.
Excludes 08:45 High : If a high is created exactly at 08:45, the indicator will ignore it and use the highest value before 08:45, ensuring it only references the price action during the specified window.
Line Extension : The high and low lines are drawn and extended to the right for a user-defined number of bars, making them visible beyond the session's close.
Customizable Parameters : Adjust the start and end times of the session, line colors, and line width to fit your preferences.
Use Case :
Ideal for traders who focus on the price action during the early part of the trading session (08:30 to 08:45) and want to track significant levels of support and resistance from that period.
The extended lines help identify potential price zones for the rest of the session or the trading day.
Smarter Money Concepts - MTF IFVGs [PhenLabs]📊 Smarter Money Concepts - MTF IFVG
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
This multi-timeframe indicator identifies Inverse Fair Value Gaps (IFVGs) and their inversions across simultaneous chart intervals, helping traders spot liquidity voids and potential reversal zones. By analyzing price action through the lens of institutional order flow patterns, it solves the problem of manual gap tracking across timeframes while incorporating volatility-adjusted parameters and psychological level analysis for higher-probability setups.
🚀 Points of Innovation
• Multi-Timeframe Engine - Simultaneous analysis of 3 higher timeframes
• Adaptive Parameters - Auto-adjusts to market volatility conditions
• Quality Scoring System - Ranks gaps using RVI strength and size metrics
• Inversion Tracking - Monitors failed gaps for counter-trend signals
• Render Optimization - Prevents chart clutter with smart gap management
🔧 Core Components
FVG Detection Logic: Identifies gaps using customizable price source (Close/Wick)
Inversion Tracker: Manages failed gaps and generates counter signals
Multi-Timeframe Engine: Processes 3 independent higher timeframe analyses
Dashboard System: Real-time display of active gaps across all timeframes
🔥 Key Features
• Volatility-adjusted gap size filters (ATR-based)
• Customizable timeframe confluence analysis
• Color-coded quality scoring
• Non-repainting inversion signals
• Mobile-optimized visual rendering
🎨 Visualization
• Colored Boxes: Translucent zones show active gaps (green/bullish, red/bearish)
• Midline Plot: Dashed gray line marks gap midpoint for price targets
• Inversion Markers: Intense colors show failed gaps (dark red/bullish failure, bright green/bearish failure)
• HTF Differentiation: Higher timeframe gaps shown in blue/teal hues
📖 Usage Guidelines
Multi-Timeframe Settings
• Higher Timeframe 1
Default: 30 | Range: Any > Chart TF | Controls primary confluence timeframe
• Show All Timeframes
Default: True | Toggles multi-TF gap displays
Gap Settings
• Source
Default: Close | Options: | Determines gap measurement method
• RVI Period
Default: 14 | Range: 1-50 | Sets momentum confirmation sensitivity
• RVI Value
Default 0.1 | 0 to see all IFVGs | Increase min RVI to see the most powerful IFVGs
✅ Best Use Cases
• Identifying confluence across timeframes
• Spotting institutional order blocks
• High-probability reversal trading
• Trend continuation confirmation
• Volatility breakout setups
⚠️ Limitations
• Repaints historical gap zones
• Requires understanding of FVG concepts
• Higher timeframe data latency
• Quality scores rely on RVI/ATR settings
💡 What Makes This Unique
First FVG indicator with true multi-timeframe processing
Adaptive parameters that auto-adjust to volatility
Quantifiable quality scoring system
Professional-grade dashboard with HTF tracking
🔬 How It Works
Gap Detection: Identifies FVGs using price relationships and RVI confirmation
Inversion Tracking: Monitors price breaches to flag failed gaps
Quality Assessment: Scores gaps based on size, momentum, and location
Adaptive Filtering: Adjusts parameters using ATR-based volatility analysis
Multi-TF Synthesis: Correlates gaps across user-selected timeframes
Visual Rendering: Displays only relevant, active gaps to prevent clutter
💡 Note:
Start with default settings and gradually adjust parameters after observing market interactions. Focus on gaps with quality scores above 7 that align with higher timeframe trends. Combine with price action at psychological levels for highest-probability setups. Remember that higher timeframe gaps generally carry more significance than current chart gaps.
Multi-Sector Trend AnalysisThis script, titled "Multi-Sector Trend Analysis: Track Sector Momentum and Trends," is designed to assist traders and investors in monitoring multiple sectors of the stock market simultaneously. It leverages technical analysis by incorporating trend detection and momentum indicators like moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to offer insights into the price action of various market sectors.
Core Features:
1. Sector-Based Analysis: The script covers 20 major sectors from the NSE (National Stock Exchange) such as Auto, Banking, Energy, FMCG, IT, Pharma, and others. Users can customize which sectors they wish to analyze using the available input fields.
Technical Indicators: The script uses two core technical indicators to detect trends and momentum:
2. Moving Averages: The script calculates both fast and slow exponential moving averages (EMAs). These are critical for identifying short- and long-term price trends and crossovers, helping detect shifts in momentum.
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI): A well-known momentum indicator that shows whether a stock is overbought or oversold. This script uses a 14-period RSI to gauge the strength of each sector.
4. Trend Detection: The script identifies whether the current market trend is "Up" or "Down" based on the relationship between the fast and slow EMAs (i.e., whether the fast EMA is above or below the slow EMA). It highlights this trend visually in a table format, allowing quick and easy trend recognition.
5. Gain/Loss Tracking: This feature calculates the percentage gain or loss since the last EMA crossover (a key point in trend change), giving users a sense of how much the price has moved since the trend shifted.
6. Customizable Table for Display: The script displays the analyzed data in a table format, where users can view each sector's:
Symbol
Trend (Up or Down)
RSI Value
Gain/Loss Since the Last EMA Crossover
This table is customizable in terms of size and color theme (dark or light), providing flexibility in presentation for different charting styles.
How It Works:
Sector Selection: Users can input up to 20 different sector symbols for analysis.
Moving Averages: Users can define the period lengths for both the fast and slow EMAs to suit their trading strategies.
Table Options: Choose between different table sizes and opt for a dark theme to enhance the visual appearance on charts.
How to Use:
Select the symbols (sectors) that you want to track. The script includes pre-configured symbols for major sectors on the NSE, but you can modify these to suit your needs.
Adjust the fast and slow EMA lengths to your preference. A common setting would be 3 for the fast EMA and 4 for the slow EMA, but more conservative traders might opt for higher values.
Customize the table size and theme based on your preference, whether you want a compact table or a larger one for easier readability.
Why Use This Script:
This script is ideal for traders looking to:
Monitor multiple market sectors simultaneously.
Identify key trends across sectors quickly.
Understand momentum and detect potential reversals through RSI and EMA crossovers.
Stay informed on sector performance using a clear visual table that tracks gains or losses.
By using this script, traders can gain better insights into sector-based trading strategies, improve their sector rotation tactics, and stay informed about the broader market environment. It provides a powerful yet easy-to-use tool for both beginner and advanced traders.
4H Candle Curves4H Candle Curves - Detailed User Guide
OVERVIEW
This indicator reveals curve vs continuation behavior in NQ Futures by analyzing how price responds after breaking the first-hour range. Based on 10+ years of statistical analysis (2013-2025, 3,136+ trading days), it identifies which 4-hour sessions exhibit mean reversion (curve) behavior versus trend continuation when Q2 (second hour) breaks Q1 (first hour) extremes.
⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All curve probabilities and statistics were derived from a decade-long dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results.
CORE CONCEPT: THE CURVE
What is a "Curve"?
A curve occurs when price breaks out of the first hour's range in Q2 (hour 2), but then reverses direction in the second half (Q3+Q4) to make a new extreme on the opposite side.
Curve Example (Upside Break → Downside Reversal):
Q1 (Hour 1): Price establishes range 25,000 - 25,050
Q2 (Hour 2): Price breaks ABOVE Q1 high, reaches 25,100
Q3+Q4 (Hours 3-4): Price curves back down, makes new LOW below 25,000
Result: Q2 broke high, but second half curved back to make new low below Q1 = CURVE
What is "Continuation"?
Continuation occurs when Q2 breaks Q1 range and the second half extends further in the same direction.
Continuation Example (Upside Break → Further Upside):
Q1 (Hour 1): Price establishes range 25,000 - 25,050
Q2 (Hour 2): Price breaks ABOVE Q1 high, reaches 25,100
Q3+Q4 (Hours 3-4): Price continues higher, makes new HIGH above 25,100
Result: Q2 broke high, second half made new high above Q2 = CONTINUATION
THE CRITICAL DISCOVERY: 6AM IS THE CURVE SESSION
Curve Probabilities by Session:
When Q2 Breaks Q1 HIGH:
6AM: 60.6% curve (new low below Q1) | 38.5% continuation
2AM: 38.4% curve | 46.7% continuation (balanced)
10AM: 17.2% curve | 60.4% continuation ← STRONG continuation bias
6PM: 29.6% curve | 59.0% continuation
10PM: 27.5% curve | 55.1% continuation
When Q2 Breaks Q1 LOW:
6AM: 64.4% curve (new high above Q1) | 35.0% continuation ← HIGHEST curve
2AM: 42.8% curve | 43.3% continuation (balanced)
10AM: 16.7% curve | 51.6% continuation ← STRONG continuation bias
6PM: 33.7% curve | 51.1% continuation
10PM: 33.1% curve | 48.6% continuation
Key Insight:
6AM is THE ONLY SESSION with >60% curve probability in both directions. This makes it a uniquely exploitable mean reversion session. When Q2 breaks Q1 range during 6AM, expect the second half to curve back 60-64% of the time.
10AM shows the opposite: Strong continuation bias (60% when Q2 breaks high, 52% when Q2 breaks low). 10AM breakouts tend to follow through.
HOW IT WORKS: THE QUARTER SYSTEM
The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST):
Each trading day (6pm-5pm) is divided into six 4-hour periods:
6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open | Blue box
10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session | Purple box
2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London | Orange box
6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open | Green box ← THE CURVE SESSION
10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning | Red box ← THE CONTINUATION SESSION
2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon | Yellow box (3 hours only)
The Four Quarters:
Each 4-hour candle (except 2PM) is divided into four 1-hour quarters:
Q1 (Hour 1, minutes 0-60): Establishes initial range
Q2 (Hour 2, minutes 60-120): Tests Q1 range - breaks or holds?
Q3 (Hour 3, minutes 120-180): Second half begins
Q4 (Hour 4, minutes 180-240): Second half completes
2PM candle only has 3 hours (14:00-17:00), so quarters are adjusted accordingly.
The Three-Step Analysis:
STEP 1: Q1 Establishes Range
The first hour sets the high and low for the session. This becomes the reference range.
STEP 2: Q2 Break Detection
The indicator monitors whether Q2 (hour 2) breaks above Q1 high or below Q1 low.
STEP 3: Second Half Response
Once Q2 breaks Q1 range, the indicator tracks what happens in Q3+Q4:
Does price CURVE back to make new extreme on opposite side?
Does price CONTINUE to make new extreme in same direction?
Or does price stay within the established range?
VISUAL ELEMENTS EXPLAINED
1. 4-Hour Candle Boxes
Colored boxes display the high-to-low range of each 4H candle:
Blue = 6PM (evening session start)
Purple = 10PM (Asia session)
Orange = 2AM (early London)
Green = 6AM ← THE CURVE SESSION (watch for mean reversion)
Red = 10AM ← THE CONTINUATION SESSION (trend follow-through)
Yellow = 2PM (afternoon close, 3 hours only)
2. Quarter Separator Lines
Vertical dotted lines mark the boundaries between quarters (1H, 2H, 3H marks). This helps you see:
When Q1 ends (after 1 hour)
When Q2 ends / second half begins (after 2 hours)
When Q3 ends (after 3 hours)
3. Candle Name Labels
At the 2-hour mark (Q2/Q3 boundary), a label shows:
Candle name (e.g., "6am")
Directional indicator:
🔼 = Q2 broke Q1 HIGH
🔽 = Q2 broke Q1 LOW
⚠️ = Q2 broke BOTH Q1 high and low (extended range)
No symbol = Q2 stayed within Q1 range
THE LIVE STATUS TABLE
Located in your chosen corner (default: bottom-right), this table shows real-time analysis of the current 4H candle.
Header Row:
"LIVE: CANDLE" - Shows which 4H session you're currently in
Quarter Row:
"Quarter: Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 (Hour X)" - Shows which quarter you're currently forming
STATUS Section:
The status updates dynamically based on what has happened:
During Q1-Q2 (First Half):
"⏳ Q1 Building..." - First hour forming, range being established
"⏳ Q2 Building..." - Second hour in progress, Q2 within Q1 range so far
"🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH" - Q2 has broken above Q1 high
"🔽 Q2 Broke Q1 LOW" - Q2 has broken below Q1 low
"⚠️ Q2 Broke BOTH Q1 Extremes" - Q2 extended range in both directions
During Q3-Q4 (Second Half):
"✓ CURVE CONFIRMED" - Q2 broke one direction, second half reversed to opposite side
"✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED" - Q2 broke one direction, second half extended further same direction
"⏳ 2nd Half In Progress" - Q2 broke Q1, waiting to see if curve or continuation
"📊 No Q2 Break Occurred" - Q2 stayed within Q1 range (no curve/continuation setup)
EXPECTATION Section:
Shows the probabilities based on the current state:
When Q2 breaks Q1 high in 6AM:
EXPECT 2nd half:
CURVE (low < Q1): 60.6%
CONT (high > Q2): 38.5%
This tells you there's a 60.6% chance the second half will curve back to make a new low below Q1, versus 38.5% chance it continues higher above Q2.
When curve/continuation is confirmed:
Q2 broke high → 2nd half made new LOW below Q1
Curve: 60.6%
Shows what actually happened and the historical probability.
Color Coding:
Purple background = Curve confirmed (mean reversion occurred)
Green background = Continuation confirmed (upside extension)
Red background = Continuation confirmed (downside extension)
Blue background = Second half in progress, watching
Yellow background = No Q2 break (no setup)
Gray background = Still in first half, building
THE CURVE REFERENCE TABLE
Located in your chosen corner (default: bottom-left), this table provides a quick reference for all sessions.
Table Structure:
TOP SECTION: "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 HIGH"
BOTTOM SECTION: "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 LOW"
How to Read:
"Curve" column = % of time second half makes new extreme on OPPOSITE side
"Cont" column = % of time second half makes new extreme in SAME direction
"Winner" column = Which behavior is more likely
Purple highlight = Curve is the winner (higher %)
Blue highlight = Continuation is the winner
🔥 symbol = Strong edge (>60%)
Quick Reference Usage:
You're in 10AM session, Q2 just broke Q1 high. Look at top section, 10AM row:
Curve: 17.2%
Cont: 60.4%
Winner: CONT
Interpretation: 10AM breakouts tend to follow through. Only 17% chance of curving back. Trade with the break, not against it.
PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES
Example 1: Perfect 6AM Curve Setup
Scenario:
6AM candle in progress
7:00 AM: Q1 ends, range is 18,000 - 18,050
7:30 AM: Price breaks above 18,050, reaches 18,075 (Q2 broke Q1 high)
Live table shows: "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH"
Expectation: "CURVE (low < Q1): 60.6%"
Trading Decision:
Even though price broke to new highs, the 60.6% curve probability suggests looking for short opportunities expecting price to curve back below 18,000 in Q3-Q4.
Typical Outcome:
8:15 AM (Q3): Price starts declining
9:15 AM (Q4): Price makes new low at 17,990
Result: ✓ CURVE CONFIRMED
Example 2: 10AM Continuation Signal
Scenario:
10AM candle in progress
11:00 AM: Q1 ends, range is 18,100 - 18,150
11:45 AM: Price breaks above 18,150, reaches 18,180 (Q2 broke Q1 high)
Live table shows: "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH"
Expectation: "CONT (high > Q2): 60.4%"
Trading Decision:
With 60.4% continuation probability, breakout likely to follow through. Look for long opportunities expecting extension above 18,180 in Q3-Q4.
Typical Outcome:
12:30 PM (Q3): Price continues higher to 18,200
1:15 PM (Q4): Price makes new high at 18,225
Result: ✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED
Example 3: Using Reference Table During Live Trading
You see Q2 breaking Q1 low during 2AM session:
Quick reference check:
2AM row, "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 LOW" section
Curve: 42.8% | Cont: 43.3% | Winner: Balanced
Interpretation: This is a coin flip - 2AM session is balanced when Q2 breaks low. Don't force a directional bias. Wait for second half price action confirmation or skip the setup.
Example 4: No Setup Scenario
Scenario:
6AM candle, Q2 ends at 8:00 AM
Q2 stayed within Q1 range (no break above or below)
Live table shows: "📊 No Q2 Break Occurred"
Trading Decision:
No curve/continuation setup exists. This analysis only applies when Q2 breaks Q1 range. Monitor for different strategies or wait for next 4H candle.
UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY
Data Foundation:
Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100)
Timeframe: 1-minute bars for precise quarter tracking
Period: January 2013 - December 2025
Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days
Total 4H Candles Analyzed: ~18,800+ individual sessions
Analysis Process:
For each 4H candle in the dataset:
Calculate Q1 high and low (first hour range)
Track whether Q2 breaks Q1 high, Q1 low, both, or neither
When Q2 breaks Q1 range, measure second half response:
Did Q3+Q4 make new low below Q1? (curve when Q2 broke high)
Did Q3+Q4 make new high above Q1? (curve when Q2 broke low)
Did Q3+Q4 make new high above Q2? (continuation when Q2 broke high)
Did Q3+Q4 make new low below Q2? (continuation when Q2 broke low)
Calculate percentages for each session
Why NQ-Specific?
Different futures contracts exhibit different intraday personality:
NQ (NASDAQ):
Tech-heavy, volatility-prone
6AM shows extreme curve behavior (60-64%) due to NY Open reversal tendency
10AM shows strong continuation (60%) as trends establish
ES (S&P 500) would show different probabilities because:
Lower volatility than NQ
Different institutional participation patterns
Different response to macro events
The indicator's probabilities are calibrated specifically to NQ behavior patterns. Using it on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce misleading signals.
ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
What Makes This Indicator Unique:
Quarter-Based Curve Analysis: Unlike traditional indicators that only identify breakouts, this tracks what happens after the breakout. The curve vs continuation framework is novel and provides directional edge.
Session-Specific Behavior: Recognizes that 6AM behaves fundamentally differently than 10AM. Most indicators apply the same logic across all sessions. This indicator provides session-specific probabilities.
Statistical Validation: Every probability shown is backed by 10+ years of data (2,900+ candles per session). Not based on theory or discretionary observation.
Real-Time Quarter Tracking: Precisely identifies which quarter you're in and what stage of the pattern is forming. Provides forward-looking probabilities based on current state.
The 6AM Discovery: The 60-64% curve probability in 6AM is a quantified, repeatable edge that contradicts traditional "breakout = continuation" assumptions. This session exhibits mean reversion characteristics that most traders miss.
Dual-Direction Analysis: Tracks both upside breaks (Q2 > Q1 high) and downside breaks (Q2 < Q1 low) separately, as they can have different probabilities.
Visual Quarter System: The combination of colored boxes, quarter separators, and real-time labels provides instant visual understanding of pattern stage and expected behavior.
HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR
Step 1: Identify Current 4H Candle
Check which colored box you're in and what session it represents.
Step 2: Wait for Q2 to Complete
The setup doesn't exist until Q2 (hour 2) breaks Q1 range. Monitor the live table.
Step 3: Check Q2 Break Status
Did Q2 break Q1 high? Q1 low? Both? Or neither?
Step 4: Consult Reference Table
Look up current session in curve reference table. What's the probability?
Step 5: Apply Session-Specific Strategy
For 6AM (60-64% curve):
Q2 breaks high → Expect curve back for new low
Q2 breaks low → Expect curve back for new high
Strategy: FADE the Q2 break, look for reversal entries in Q3-Q4
For 10AM (52-60% continuation):
Q2 breaks high → Expect continuation higher
Q2 breaks low → Expect continuation lower
Strategy: TRADE WITH the Q2 break, look for continuation entries in Q3-Q4
For 2AM (38-43% curve, 43-47% continuation):
Balanced probabilities
Strategy: Wait for Q3 price action to confirm direction, or skip
For 6PM/10PM (50-59% continuation):
Moderate continuation bias
Strategy: Lean with the break but use tight stops
Step 6: Monitor Live Status
Watch the live table for confirmation:
"✓ CURVE CONFIRMED" = Mean reversion occurred
"✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED" = Follow-through occurred
"⏳ 2nd Half In Progress" = Still developing
BEST PRACTICES
Focus on 6AM for curve trades - This is THE high-probability mean reversion session
Focus on 10AM for continuation trades - This is THE high-probability breakout session
Be cautious with 2AM - Balanced probabilities mean lower edge
Use quarter separators - Enter trades early in Q3 after Q2 break, don't wait for Q4
Combine with price action - Don't blindly fade 6AM or follow 10AM; wait for confirming price structure
Respect the 60% rule - 6AM curve happens 60% of time, which means 40% it doesn't. Manage risk accordingly
Watch for "No Q2 Break" - If Q2 doesn't break Q1, this analysis doesn't apply
Consider overnight context - If 6AM opens with huge gap, curve probability may be affected
SETTINGS & CUSTOMIZATION
Display Settings:
Show 4H Candle Boxes - Toggle colored range boxes
Box Colors - Customize color for each session
Show Quarter Separators - Show/hide 1H, 2H, 3H lines
Show Candle Name Labels - Show/hide session labels at 2H mark
Separator Line Style - Solid/Dashed/Dotted
Max Historical Candles - How many past 4H candles to display (1-50)
Table Settings:
Show Live Status Table - Toggle real-time analysis table
Show Curve Reference Table - Toggle probability reference table
Table Positions - Place tables in any corner
Table Text Size - Tiny/Small/Normal
LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS
NQ FUTURES ONLY - All probabilities are NQ-specific, do not use on other instruments
Requires Q2 break - No curve/continuation setup exists if Q2 stays within Q1 range
Probabilities, not certainties - 60% means it happens 6 out of 10 times, not every time
Lower timeframe noise - 1-minute tracking can be choppy, consider using 5min+ for entries
Gap days - Large overnight gaps may affect curve/continuation probabilities
Not standalone - Use as confluence with your strategy, not as sole decision factor
Historical performance - Past statistics don't guarantee future results
WHY THE CURVE CONCEPT MATTERS
Traditional trading wisdom says: "Breakout = Continuation"
This indicator proves that's not always true. Specifically, during the 6AM session (late London + NY Open), when Q2 breaks the Q1 range, price curves back to the opposite extreme 60-64% of the time.
This creates a unique exploitable edge:
Most breakout traders go LONG when Q2 breaks Q1 high
But in 6AM, 60.6% of the time, price curves back down for new low
Shorting the breakout (counter-intuitive) is the higher-probability trade
The 10AM session shows the opposite:
Breakouts in 10AM tend to follow through (52-60%)
Traditional "trade the breakout" strategy works better here
By knowing which session you're in, you can adapt your strategy to match the session's personality.
FINAL NOTES
This indicator distills 10+ years of NQ intraday behavior into actionable, session-specific probabilities. The discovery that 6AM exhibits 60-64% curve behavior while 10AM exhibits 52-60% continuation behavior provides a statistical edge for mean reversion and trend-following traders respectively.
The highest-probability setups:
6AM Q2 break → FADE (60-64% edge for curve)
10AM Q2 break → FOLLOW (52-60% edge for continuation)
2AM = SKIP (balanced probabilities, no clear edge)
Master the 6AM curve and 10AM continuation first. These two sessions provide the clearest statistical edges.
Remember: Trade with proper risk management. This tool provides probabilities based on historical behavior, not predictions of future performance.
15-Min RSI Scalper [SwissAlgo]15-Min RSI Scalper
Tracks RSI Momentum Loss and Gain to Generate Signals
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WHAT THIS INDICATOR CALCULATES
This indicator attempts to identify RSI directional changes (RSI momentum) using a step-by-step "ladder" method. It reads RSI(14) from the next higher timeframe relative to your chart. On a 15-minute chart, it uses 1-hour RSI. On a 5-minute chart, it uses 15-minute RSI, and so on.
How the ladder logic works:
The indicator doesn't track RSI all the time. It only starts tracking when RSI crosses into potentially extreme territory (these are called "events" in the code):
For sell signals : when RSI crosses above a dynamic upper threshold (typically between 60-80, calculated as the 90th percentile of recent RSI)
For buy signals : when RSI crosses below a dynamic lower threshold (typically between 20-40, calculated as the 10th percentile of recent RSI)
Once tracking begins, RSI movement is divided into 2-point steps (boxes). The indicator counts how many boxes RSI climbs or falls.
A signal generates only when:
RSI reverses direction by at least 2 boxes (4 RSI points) from its extreme
RSI holds that reversal for 3 consecutive confirmed bars
Example: Dynamic threshold is at 68. RSI crosses above 68 → tracking starts. RSI climbs to 76 (4 boxes up). Then it drops back to 72 and stays below that level for 3 bars → sell signal prints. The buy signal works the same way in reverse.
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SIGNAL GENERATION METHODOLOGY
Sell Signal (Red Triangle)
RSI crosses above a dynamic start level (calculated as the 90th percentile of the last 1000 bars, constrained between 60-80)
Indicator tracks upward progression in 2-point boxes
RSI reverses and drops below a boundary 2 boxes below the highest box reached
RSI remains below that boundary for 3 confirmed bars
Red triangle plots above price
Reset condition: RSI returns below 50
Buy Signal (Green Triangle)
RSI crosses below a dynamic start level (10th percentile of last 1000 bars, constrained between 20-40)
Indicator tracks downward progression in 2-point boxes
RSI reverses and rises above a boundary 2 boxes above the lowest box reached
RSI remains above that boundary for 3 confirmed bars
Green triangle plots below price
Reset condition: RSI returns above 50
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TECHNICAL PARAMETERS
All parameters are hardcoded:
RSI Period: 14
Box Size: 2 RSI points
Reversal Threshold: 2 boxes (4 RSI points)
Confirmation Period: 3 bars
Reset Level: RSI 50
Sell Start Range: 60-80 (dynamic)
Buy Start Range: 20-40 (dynamic)
Lookback for Percentile: 1000 bars
Note: Since the code is open source, users can modify these hardcoded values directly in the script to adjust sensitivity. For example, increasing the confirmation period from 3 to 5 bars will produce fewer but more conservative signals. Decreasing the box size from 2 to 1 will make the indicator more responsive to smaller RSI movements.
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KEY FEATURES
Automatic Higher Timeframe RSI
When applied to a 15-minute chart, the indicator automatically reads 1-hour RSI data. This is the next standard timeframe above 15 minutes in the indicator's logic.
Dynamic Adaptive Start Levels
Sell signals use the 90th percentile of RSI over the last 1000 bars, constrained between 60-80. Buy signals use the 10th percentile, constrained between 20-40. These thresholds recalculate on each bar based on recent data.
Ladder Box System
RSI movements are tracked in 2-point boxes. The indicator requires a 2-box reversal followed by 3 consecutive bars maintaining that reversal before generating a signal.
Dual Signal Output
Red down-triangles plot above price when the sell signal conditions are met. Green up-triangles plot below the price when buy signal conditions are met.
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REPAINTING
This indicator does not repaint. All calculations use "barstate.isconfirmed" to ensure signals appear only on closed bars. The request.security() call uses lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off to prevent forward-looking bias.
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INTENDED CHART TIMEFRAME
This indicator is designed for use on 15-minute charts. The visual reminder table at the top of the chart indicates this requirement.
On a 15-minute chart:
RSI data comes from the 1-hour timeframe
Signals reflect 1-hour momentum shifts
3-bar confirmation equals 45 minutes of price action
Using it on other timeframes will change the higher timeframe RSI source and may produce different behavior.
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WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES NOT DO
Does not predict future price movements
Does not provide entry or exit advice
Does not guarantee profitable trades
Does not replace comprehensive technical analysis
Does not account for fundamental factors, news events, or market structure
Does not adapt to all market conditions equally
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EDUCATIONAL USE
This indicator demonstrates one approach to momentum reversal detection using:
Multi-timeframe analysis
Adaptive thresholds via percentile calculation
Step-wise momentum tracking
Multi-bar confirmation logic
It is designed as a technical study, not a trading system. Signals represent calculated conditions based on RSI behavior, not trade recommendations. Always do your own analysis before taking market positions.
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RISK DISCLOSURE
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. This indicator:
Is for educational and informational purposes only
Does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice
Should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions
Has not been tested across all market conditions
May produce false signals, late signals, or no signals in certain conditions
Past performance of any indicator does not predict future results. Users must conduct their own analysis and risk assessment before making trading decisions. Always use proper risk management, including stop losses and position sizing appropriate to your account and risk tolerance.
MIT LICENSE
This code is open source and provided as-is without warranties of any kind. You may use, modify, and distribute it freely under the MIT License.
