ATAI Volume analysis with price action V 1.00ATAI Volume Analysis with Price Action
1. Introduction
1.1 Overview
ATAI Volume Analysis with Price Action is a composite indicator designed for TradingView. It combines per‑side volume data —that is, how much buying and selling occurs during each bar—with standard price‑structure elements such as swings, trend lines and support/resistance. By blending these elements the script aims to help a trader understand which side is in control, whether a breakout is genuine, when markets are potentially exhausted and where liquidity providers might be active.
The indicator is built around TradingView’s up/down volume feed accessed via the TradingView/ta/10 library. The following excerpt from the script illustrates how this feed is configured:
import TradingView/ta/10 as tvta
// Determine lower timeframe string based on user choice and chart resolution
string lower_tf_breakout = use_custom_tf_input ? custom_tf_input :
timeframe.isseconds ? "1S" :
timeframe.isintraday ? "1" :
timeframe.isdaily ? "5" : "60"
// Request up/down volume (both positive)
= tvta.requestUpAndDownVolume(lower_tf_breakout)
Lower‑timeframe selection. If you do not specify a custom lower timeframe, the script chooses a default based on your chart resolution: 1 second for second charts, 1 minute for intraday charts, 5 minutes for daily charts and 60 minutes for anything longer. Smaller intervals provide a more precise view of buyer and seller flow but cover fewer bars. Larger intervals cover more history at the cost of granularity.
Tick vs. time bars. Many trading platforms offer a tick / intrabar calculation mode that updates an indicator on every trade rather than only on bar close. Turning on one‑tick calculation will give the most accurate split between buy and sell volume on the current bar, but it typically reduces the amount of historical data available. For the highest fidelity in live trading you can enable this mode; for studying longer histories you might prefer to disable it. When volume data is completely unavailable (some instruments and crypto pairs), all modules that rely on it will remain silent and only the price‑structure backbone will operate.
Figure caption, Each panel shows the indicator’s info table for a different volume sampling interval. In the left chart, the parentheses “(5)” beside the buy‑volume figure denote that the script is aggregating volume over five‑minute bars; the center chart uses “(1)” for one‑minute bars; and the right chart uses “(1T)” for a one‑tick interval. These notations tell you which lower timeframe is driving the volume calculations. Shorter intervals such as 1 minute or 1 tick provide finer detail on buyer and seller flow, but they cover fewer bars; longer intervals like five‑minute bars smooth the data and give more history.
Figure caption, The values in parentheses inside the info table come directly from the Breakout — Settings. The first row shows the custom lower-timeframe used for volume calculations (e.g., “(1)”, “(5)”, or “(1T)”)
2. Price‑Structure Backbone
Even without volume, the indicator draws structural features that underpin all other modules. These features are always on and serve as the reference levels for subsequent calculations.
2.1 What it draws
• Pivots: Swing highs and lows are detected using the pivot_left_input and pivot_right_input settings. A pivot high is identified when the high recorded pivot_right_input bars ago exceeds the highs of the preceding pivot_left_input bars and is also higher than (or equal to) the highs of the subsequent pivot_right_input bars; pivot lows follow the inverse logic. The indicator retains only a fixed number of such pivot points per side, as defined by point_count_input, discarding the oldest ones when the limit is exceeded.
• Trend lines: For each side, the indicator connects the earliest stored pivot and the most recent pivot (oldest high to newest high, and oldest low to newest low). When a new pivot is added or an old one drops out of the lookback window, the line’s endpoints—and therefore its slope—are recalculated accordingly.
• Horizontal support/resistance: The highest high and lowest low within the lookback window defined by length_input are plotted as horizontal dashed lines. These serve as short‑term support and resistance levels.
• Ranked labels: If showPivotLabels is enabled the indicator prints labels such as “HH1”, “HH2”, “LL1” and “LL2” near each pivot. The ranking is determined by comparing the price of each stored pivot: HH1 is the highest high, HH2 is the second highest, and so on; LL1 is the lowest low, LL2 is the second lowest. In the case of equal prices the newer pivot gets the better rank. Labels are offset from price using ½ × ATR × label_atr_multiplier, with the ATR length defined by label_atr_len_input. A dotted connector links each label to the candle’s wick.
2.2 Key settings
• length_input: Window length for finding the highest and lowest values and for determining trend line endpoints. A larger value considers more history and will generate longer trend lines and S/R levels.
• pivot_left_input, pivot_right_input: Strictness of swing confirmation. Higher values require more bars on either side to form a pivot; lower values create more pivots but may include minor swings.
• point_count_input: How many pivots are kept in memory on each side. When new pivots exceed this number the oldest ones are discarded.
• label_atr_len_input and label_atr_multiplier: Determine how far pivot labels are offset from the bar using ATR. Increasing the multiplier moves labels further away from price.
• Styling inputs for trend lines, horizontal lines and labels (color, width and line style).
Figure caption, The chart illustrates how the indicator’s price‑structure backbone operates. In this daily example, the script scans for bars where the high (or low) pivot_right_input bars back is higher (or lower) than the preceding pivot_left_input bars and higher or lower than the subsequent pivot_right_input bars; only those bars are marked as pivots.
These pivot points are stored and ranked: the highest high is labelled “HH1”, the second‑highest “HH2”, and so on, while lows are marked “LL1”, “LL2”, etc. Each label is offset from the price by half of an ATR‑based distance to keep the chart clear, and a dotted connector links the label to the actual candle.
The red diagonal line connects the earliest and latest stored high pivots, and the green line does the same for low pivots; when a new pivot is added or an old one drops out of the lookback window, the end‑points and slopes adjust accordingly. Dashed horizontal lines mark the highest high and lowest low within the current lookback window, providing visual support and resistance levels. Together, these elements form the structural backbone that other modules reference, even when volume data is unavailable.
3. Breakout Module
3.1 Concept
This module confirms that a price break beyond a recent high or low is supported by a genuine shift in buying or selling pressure. It requires price to clear the highest high (“HH1”) or lowest low (“LL1”) and, simultaneously, that the winning side shows a significant volume spike, dominance and ranking. Only when all volume and price conditions pass is a breakout labelled.
3.2 Inputs
• lookback_break_input : This controls the number of bars used to compute moving averages and percentiles for volume. A larger value smooths the averages and percentiles but makes the indicator respond more slowly.
• vol_mult_input : The “spike” multiplier; the current buy or sell volume must be at least this multiple of its moving average over the lookback window to qualify as a breakout.
• rank_threshold_input (0–100) : Defines a volume percentile cutoff: the current buyer/seller volume must be in the top (100−threshold)%(100−threshold)% of all volumes within the lookback window. For example, if set to 80, the current volume must be in the top 20 % of the lookback distribution.
• ratio_threshold_input (0–1) : Specifies the minimum share of total volume that the buyer (for a bullish breakout) or seller (for bearish) must hold on the current bar; the code also requires that the cumulative buyer volume over the lookback window exceeds the seller volume (and vice versa for bearish cases).
• use_custom_tf_input / custom_tf_input : When enabled, these inputs override the automatic choice of lower timeframe for up/down volume; otherwise the script selects a sensible default based on the chart’s timeframe.
• Label appearance settings : Separate options control the ATR-based offset length, offset multiplier, label size and colors for bullish and bearish breakout labels, as well as the connector style and width.
3.3 Detection logic
1. Data preparation : Retrieve per‑side volume from the lower timeframe and take absolute values. Build rolling arrays of the last lookback_break_input values to compute simple moving averages (SMAs), cumulative sums and percentile ranks for buy and sell volume.
2. Volume spike: A spike is flagged when the current buy (or, in the bearish case, sell) volume is at least vol_mult_input times its SMA over the lookback window.
3. Dominance test: The buyer’s (or seller’s) share of total volume on the current bar must meet or exceed ratio_threshold_input. In addition, the cumulative sum of buyer volume over the window must exceed the cumulative sum of seller volume for a bullish breakout (and vice versa for bearish). A separate requirement checks the sign of delta: for bullish breakouts delta_breakout must be non‑negative; for bearish breakouts it must be non‑positive.
4. Percentile rank: The current volume must fall within the top (100 – rank_threshold_input) percent of the lookback distribution—ensuring that the spike is unusually large relative to recent history.
5. Price test: For a bullish signal, the closing price must close above the highest pivot (HH1); for a bearish signal, the close must be below the lowest pivot (LL1).
6. Labeling: When all conditions above are satisfied, the indicator prints “Breakout ↑” above the bar (bullish) or “Breakout ↓” below the bar (bearish). Labels are offset using half of an ATR‑based distance and linked to the candle with a dotted connector.
Figure caption, (Breakout ↑ example) , On this daily chart, price pushes above the red trendline and the highest prior pivot (HH1). The indicator recognizes this as a valid breakout because the buyer‑side volume on the lower timeframe spikes above its recent moving average and buyers dominate the volume statistics over the lookback period; when combined with a close above HH1, this satisfies the breakout conditions. The “Breakout ↑” label appears above the candle, and the info table highlights that up‑volume is elevated relative to its 11‑bar average, buyer share exceeds the dominance threshold and money‑flow metrics support the move.
Figure caption, In this daily example, price breaks below the lowest pivot (LL1) and the lower green trendline. The indicator identifies this as a bearish breakout because sell‑side volume is sharply elevated—about twice its 11‑bar average—and sellers dominate both the bar and the lookback window. With the close falling below LL1, the script triggers a Breakout ↓ label and marks the corresponding row in the info table, which shows strong down volume, negative delta and a seller share comfortably above the dominance threshold.
4. Market Phase Module (Volume Only)
4.1 Concept
Not all markets trend; many cycle between periods of accumulation (buying pressure building up), distribution (selling pressure dominating) and neutral behavior. This module classifies the current bar into one of these phases without using ATR , relying solely on buyer and seller volume statistics. It looks at net flows, ratio changes and an OBV‑like cumulative line with dual‑reference (1‑ and 2‑bar) trends. The result is displayed both as on‑chart labels and in a dedicated row of the info table.
4.2 Inputs
• phase_period_len: Number of bars over which to compute sums and ratios for phase detection.
• phase_ratio_thresh : Minimum buyer share (for accumulation) or minimum seller share (for distribution, derived as 1 − phase_ratio_thresh) of the total volume.
• strict_mode: When enabled, both the 1‑bar and 2‑bar changes in each statistic must agree on the direction (strict confirmation); when disabled, only one of the two references needs to agree (looser confirmation).
• Color customisation for info table cells and label styling for accumulation and distribution phases, including ATR length, multiplier, label size, colors and connector styles.
• show_phase_module: Toggles the entire phase detection subsystem.
• show_phase_labels: Controls whether on‑chart labels are drawn when accumulation or distribution is detected.
4.3 Detection logic
The module computes three families of statistics over the volume window defined by phase_period_len:
1. Net sum (buyers minus sellers): net_sum_phase = Σ(buy) − Σ(sell). A positive value indicates a predominance of buyers. The code also computes the differences between the current value and the values 1 and 2 bars ago (d_net_1, d_net_2) to derive up/down trends.
2. Buyer ratio: The instantaneous ratio TF_buy_breakout / TF_tot_breakout and the window ratio Σ(buy) / Σ(total). The current ratio must exceed phase_ratio_thresh for accumulation or fall below 1 − phase_ratio_thresh for distribution. The first and second differences of the window ratio (d_ratio_1, d_ratio_2) determine trend direction.
3. OBV‑like cumulative net flow: An on‑balance volume analogue obv_net_phase increments by TF_buy_breakout − TF_sell_breakout each bar. Its differences over the last 1 and 2 bars (d_obv_1, d_obv_2) provide trend clues.
The algorithm then combines these signals:
• For strict mode , accumulation requires: (a) current ratio ≥ threshold, (b) cumulative ratio ≥ threshold, (c) both ratio differences ≥ 0, (d) net sum differences ≥ 0, and (e) OBV differences ≥ 0. Distribution is the mirror case.
• For loose mode , it relaxes the directional tests: either the 1‑ or the 2‑bar difference needs to agree in each category.
If all conditions for accumulation are satisfied, the phase is labelled “Accumulation” ; if all conditions for distribution are satisfied, it’s labelled “Distribution” ; otherwise the phase is “Neutral” .
4.4 Outputs
• Info table row : Row 8 displays “Market Phase (Vol)” on the left and the detected phase (Accumulation, Distribution or Neutral) on the right. The text colour of both cells matches a user‑selectable palette (typically green for accumulation, red for distribution and grey for neutral).
• On‑chart labels : When show_phase_labels is enabled and a phase persists for at least one bar, the module prints a label above the bar ( “Accum” ) or below the bar ( “Dist” ) with a dashed or dotted connector. The label is offset using ATR based on phase_label_atr_len_input and phase_label_multiplier and is styled according to user preferences.
Figure caption, The chart displays a red “Dist” label above a particular bar, indicating that the accumulation/distribution module identified a distribution phase at that point. The detection is based on seller dominance: during that bar, the net buyer-minus-seller flow and the OBV‑style cumulative flow were trending down, and the buyer ratio had dropped below the preset threshold. These conditions satisfy the distribution criteria in strict mode. The label is placed above the bar using an ATR‑based offset and a dashed connector. By the time of the current bar in the screenshot, the phase indicator shows “Neutral” in the info table—signaling that neither accumulation nor distribution conditions are currently met—yet the historical “Dist” label remains to mark where the prior distribution phase began.
Figure caption, In this example the market phase module has signaled an Accumulation phase. Three bars before the current candle, the algorithm detected a shift toward buyers: up‑volume exceeded its moving average, down‑volume was below average, and the buyer share of total volume climbed above the threshold while the on‑balance net flow and cumulative ratios were trending upwards. The blue “Accum” label anchored below that bar marks the start of the phase; it remains on the chart because successive bars continue to satisfy the accumulation conditions. The info table confirms this: the “Market Phase (Vol)” row still reads Accumulation, and the ratio and sum rows show buyers dominating both on the current bar and across the lookback window.
5. OB/OS Spike Module
5.1 What overbought/oversold means here
In many markets, a rapid extension up or down is often followed by a period of consolidation or reversal. The indicator interprets overbought (OB) conditions as abnormally strong selling risk at or after a price rally and oversold (OS) conditions as unusually strong buying risk after a decline. Importantly, these are not direct trade signals; rather they flag areas where caution or contrarian setups may be appropriate.
5.2 Inputs
• minHits_obos (1–7): Minimum number of oscillators that must agree on an overbought or oversold condition for a label to print.
• syncWin_obos: Length of a small sliding window over which oscillator votes are smoothed by taking the maximum count observed. This helps filter out choppy signals.
• Volume spike criteria: kVolRatio_obos (ratio of current volume to its SMA) and zVolThr_obos (Z‑score threshold) across volLen_obos. Either threshold can trigger a spike.
• Oscillator toggles and periods: Each of RSI, Stochastic (K and D), Williams %R, CCI, MFI, DeMarker and Stochastic RSI can be independently enabled; their periods are adjustable.
• Label appearance: ATR‑based offset, size, colors for OB and OS labels, plus connector style and width.
5.3 Detection logic
1. Directional volume spikes: Volume spikes are computed separately for buyer and seller volumes. A sell volume spike (sellVolSpike) flags a potential OverBought bar, while a buy volume spike (buyVolSpike) flags a potential OverSold bar. A spike occurs when the respective volume exceeds kVolRatio_obos times its simple moving average over the window or when its Z‑score exceeds zVolThr_obos.
2. Oscillator votes: For each enabled oscillator, calculate its overbought and oversold state using standard thresholds (e.g., RSI ≥ 70 for OB and ≤ 30 for OS; Stochastic %K/%D ≥ 80 for OB and ≤ 20 for OS; etc.). Count how many oscillators vote for OB and how many vote for OS.
3. Minimum hits: Apply the smoothing window syncWin_obos to the vote counts using a maximum‑of‑last‑N approach. A candidate bar is only considered if the smoothed OB hit count ≥ minHits_obos (for OverBought) or the smoothed OS hit count ≥ minHits_obos (for OverSold).
4. Tie‑breaking: If both OverBought and OverSold spike conditions are present on the same bar, compare the smoothed hit counts: the side with the higher count is selected; ties default to OverBought.
5. Label printing: When conditions are met, the bar is labelled as “OverBought X/7” above the candle or “OverSold X/7” below it. “X” is the number of oscillators confirming, and the bracket lists the abbreviations of contributing oscillators. Labels are offset from price using half of an ATR‑scaled distance and can optionally include a dotted or dashed connector line.
Figure caption, In this chart the overbought/oversold module has flagged an OverSold signal. A sell‑off from the prior highs brought price down to the lower trend‑line, where the bar marked “OverSold 3/7 DeM” appears. This label indicates that on that bar the module detected a buy‑side volume spike and that at least three of the seven enabled oscillators—in this case including the DeMarker—were in oversold territory. The label is printed below the candle with a dotted connector, signaling that the market may be temporarily exhausted on the downside. After this oversold print, price begins to rebound towards the upper red trend‑line and higher pivot levels.
Figure caption, This example shows the overbought/oversold module in action. In the left‑hand panel you can see the OB/OS settings where each oscillator (RSI, Stochastic, Williams %R, CCI, MFI, DeMarker and Stochastic RSI) can be enabled or disabled, and the ATR length and label offset multiplier adjusted. On the chart itself, price has pushed up to the descending red trendline and triggered an “OverBought 3/7” label. That means the sell‑side volume spiked relative to its average and three out of the seven enabled oscillators were in overbought territory. The label is offset above the candle by half of an ATR and connected with a dashed line, signaling that upside momentum may be overextended and a pause or pullback could follow.
6. Buyer/Seller Trap Module
6.1 Concept
A bull trap occurs when price appears to break above resistance, attracting buyers, but fails to sustain the move and quickly reverses, leaving a long upper wick and trapping late entrants. A bear trap is the opposite: price breaks below support, lures in sellers, then snaps back, leaving a long lower wick and trapping shorts. This module detects such traps by looking for price structure sweeps, order‑flow mismatches and dominance reversals. It uses a scoring system to differentiate risk from confirmed traps.
6.2 Inputs
• trap_lookback_len: Window length used to rank extremes and detect sweeps.
• trap_wick_threshold: Minimum proportion of a bar’s range that must be wick (upper for bull traps, lower for bear traps) to qualify as a sweep.
• trap_score_risk: Minimum aggregated score required to flag a trap risk. (The code defines a trap_score_confirm input, but confirmation is actually based on price reversal rather than a separate score threshold.)
• trap_confirm_bars: Maximum number of bars allowed for price to reverse and confirm the trap. If price does not reverse in this window, the risk label will expire or remain unconfirmed.
• Label settings: ATR length and multiplier for offsetting, size, colours for risk and confirmed labels, and connector style and width. Separate settings exist for bull and bear traps.
• Toggle inputs: show_trap_module and show_trap_labels enable the module and control whether labels are drawn on the chart.
6.3 Scoring logic
The module assigns points to several conditions and sums them to determine whether a trap risk is present. For bull traps, the score is built from the following (bear traps mirror the logic with highs and lows swapped):
1. Sweep (2 points): Price trades above the high pivot (HH1) but fails to close above it and leaves a long upper wick at least trap_wick_threshold × range. For bear traps, price dips below the low pivot (LL1), fails to close below and leaves a long lower wick.
2. Close break (1 point): Price closes beyond HH1 or LL1 without leaving a long wick.
3. Candle/delta mismatch (2 points): The candle closes bullish yet the order flow delta is negative or the seller ratio exceeds 50%, indicating hidden supply. Conversely, a bearish close with positive delta or buyer dominance suggests hidden demand.
4. Dominance inversion (2 points): The current bar’s buyer volume has the highest rank in the lookback window while cumulative sums favor sellers, or vice versa.
5. Low‑volume break (1 point): Price crosses the pivot but total volume is below its moving average.
The total score for each side is compared to trap_score_risk. If the score is high enough, a “Bull Trap Risk” or “Bear Trap Risk” label is drawn, offset from the candle by half of an ATR‑scaled distance using a dashed outline. If, within trap_confirm_bars, price reverses beyond the opposite level—drops back below the high pivot for bull traps or rises above the low pivot for bear traps—the label is upgraded to a solid “Bull Trap” or “Bear Trap” . In this version of the code, there is no separate score threshold for confirmation: the variable trap_score_confirm is unused; confirmation depends solely on a successful price reversal within the specified number of bars.
Figure caption, In this example the trap module has flagged a Bear Trap Risk. Price initially breaks below the most recent low pivot (LL1), but the bar closes back above that level and leaves a long lower wick, suggesting a failed push lower. Combined with a mismatch between the candle direction and the order flow (buyers regain control) and a reversal in volume dominance, the aggregate score exceeds the risk threshold, so a dashed “Bear Trap Risk” label prints beneath the bar. The green and red trend lines mark the current low and high pivot trajectories, while the horizontal dashed lines show the highest and lowest values in the lookback window. If, within the next few bars, price closes decisively above the support, the risk label would upgrade to a solid “Bear Trap” label.
Figure caption, In this example the trap module has identified both ends of a price range. Near the highs, price briefly pushes above the descending red trendline and the recent pivot high, but fails to close there and leaves a noticeable upper wick. That combination of a sweep above resistance and order‑flow mismatch generates a Bull Trap Risk label with a dashed outline, warning that the upside break may not hold. At the opposite extreme, price later dips below the green trendline and the labelled low pivot, then quickly snaps back and closes higher. The long lower wick and subsequent price reversal upgrade the previous bear‑trap risk into a confirmed Bear Trap (solid label), indicating that sellers were caught on a false breakdown. Horizontal dashed lines mark the highest high and lowest low of the lookback window, while the red and green diagonals connect the earliest and latest pivot highs and lows to visualize the range.
7. Sharp Move Module
7.1 Concept
Markets sometimes display absorption or climax behavior—periods when one side steadily gains the upper hand before price breaks out with a sharp move. This module evaluates several order‑flow and volume conditions to anticipate such moves. Users can choose how many conditions must be met to flag a risk and how many (plus a price break) are required for confirmation.
7.2 Inputs
• sharp Lookback: Number of bars in the window used to compute moving averages, sums, percentile ranks and reference levels.
• sharpPercentile: Minimum percentile rank for the current side’s volume; the current buy (or sell) volume must be greater than or equal to this percentile of historical volumes over the lookback window.
• sharpVolMult: Multiplier used in the volume climax check. The current side’s volume must exceed this multiple of its average to count as a climax.
• sharpRatioThr: Minimum dominance ratio (current side’s volume relative to the opposite side) used in both the instant and cumulative dominance checks.
• sharpChurnThr: Maximum ratio of a bar’s range to its ATR for absorption/churn detection; lower values indicate more absorption (large volume in a small range).
• sharpScoreRisk: Minimum number of conditions that must be true to print a risk label.
• sharpScoreConfirm: Minimum number of conditions plus a price break required for confirmation.
• sharpCvdThr: Threshold for cumulative delta divergence versus price change (positive for bullish accumulation, negative for bearish distribution).
• Label settings: ATR length (sharpATRlen) and multiplier (sharpLabelMult) for positioning labels, label size, colors and connector styles for bullish and bearish sharp moves.
• Toggles: enableSharp activates the module; show_sharp_labels controls whether labels are drawn.
7.3 Conditions (six per side)
For each side, the indicator computes six boolean conditions and sums them to form a score:
1. Dominance (instant and cumulative):
– Instant dominance: current buy volume ≥ sharpRatioThr × current sell volume.
– Cumulative dominance: sum of buy volumes over the window ≥ sharpRatioThr × sum of sell volumes (and vice versa for bearish checks).
2. Accumulation/Distribution divergence: Over the lookback window, cumulative delta rises by at least sharpCvdThr while price fails to rise (bullish), or cumulative delta falls by at least sharpCvdThr while price fails to fall (bearish).
3. Volume climax: The current side’s volume is ≥ sharpVolMult × its average and the product of volume and bar range is the highest in the lookback window.
4. Absorption/Churn: The current side’s volume divided by the bar’s range equals the highest value in the window and the bar’s range divided by ATR ≤ sharpChurnThr (indicating large volume within a small range).
5. Percentile rank: The current side’s volume percentile rank is ≥ sharp Percentile.
6. Mirror logic for sellers: The above checks are repeated with buyer and seller roles swapped and the price break levels reversed.
Each condition that passes contributes one point to the corresponding side’s score (0 or 1). Risk and confirmation thresholds are then applied to these scores.
7.4 Scoring and labels
• Risk: If scoreBull ≥ sharpScoreRisk, a “Sharp ↑ Risk” label is drawn above the bar. If scoreBear ≥ sharpScoreRisk, a “Sharp ↓ Risk” label is drawn below the bar.
• Confirmation: A risk label is upgraded to “Sharp ↑” when scoreBull ≥ sharpScoreConfirm and the bar closes above the highest recent pivot (HH1); for bearish cases, confirmation requires scoreBear ≥ sharpScoreConfirm and a close below the lowest pivot (LL1).
• Label positioning: Labels are offset from the candle by ATR × sharpLabelMult (full ATR times multiplier), not half, and may include a dashed or dotted connector line if enabled.
Figure caption, In this chart both bullish and bearish sharp‑move setups have been flagged. Earlier in the range, a “Sharp ↓ Risk” label appears beneath a candle: the sell‑side score met the risk threshold, signaling that the combination of strong sell volume, dominance and absorption within a narrow range suggested a potential sharp decline. The price did not close below the lower pivot, so this label remains a “risk” and no confirmation occurred. Later, as the market recovered and volume shifted back to the buy side, a “Sharp ↑ Risk” label prints above a candle near the top of the channel. Here, buy‑side dominance, cumulative delta divergence and a volume climax aligned, but price has not yet closed above the upper pivot (HH1), so the alert is still a risk rather than a confirmed sharp‑up move.
Figure caption, In this chart a Sharp ↑ label is displayed above a candle, indicating that the sharp move module has confirmed a bullish breakout. Prior bars satisfied the risk threshold — showing buy‑side dominance, positive cumulative delta divergence, a volume climax and strong absorption in a narrow range — and this candle closes above the highest recent pivot, upgrading the earlier “Sharp ↑ Risk” alert to a full Sharp ↑ signal. The green label is offset from the candle with a dashed connector, while the red and green trend lines trace the high and low pivot trajectories and the dashed horizontals mark the highest and lowest values of the lookback window.
8. Market‑Maker / Spread‑Capture Module
8.1 Concept
Liquidity providers often “capture the spread” by buying and selling in almost equal amounts within a very narrow price range. These bars can signal temporary congestion before a move or reflect algorithmic activity. This module flags bars where both buyer and seller volumes are high, the price range is only a few ticks and the buy/sell split remains close to 50%. It helps traders spot potential liquidity pockets.
8.2 Inputs
• scalpLookback: Window length used to compute volume averages.
• scalpVolMult: Multiplier applied to each side’s average volume; both buy and sell volumes must exceed this multiple.
• scalpTickCount: Maximum allowed number of ticks in a bar’s range (calculated as (high − low) / minTick). A value of 1 or 2 captures ultra‑small bars; increasing it relaxes the range requirement.
• scalpDeltaRatio: Maximum deviation from a perfect 50/50 split. For example, 0.05 means the buyer share must be between 45% and 55%.
• Label settings: ATR length, multiplier, size, colors, connector style and width.
• Toggles : show_scalp_module and show_scalp_labels to enable the module and its labels.
8.3 Signal
When, on the current bar, both TF_buy_breakout and TF_sell_breakout exceed scalpVolMult times their respective averages and (high − low)/minTick ≤ scalpTickCount and the buyer share is within scalpDeltaRatio of 50%, the module prints a “Spread ↔” label above the bar. The label uses the same ATR offset logic as other modules and draws a connector if enabled.
Figure caption, In this chart the spread‑capture module has identified a potential liquidity pocket. Buyer and seller volumes both spiked above their recent averages, yet the candle’s range measured only a couple of ticks and the buy/sell split stayed close to 50 %. This combination met the module’s criteria, so it printed a grey “Spread ↔” label above the bar. The red and green trend lines link the earliest and latest high and low pivots, and the dashed horizontals mark the highest high and lowest low within the current lookback window.
9. Money Flow Module
9.1 Concept
To translate volume into a monetary measure, this module multiplies each side’s volume by the closing price. It tracks buying and selling system money default currency on a per-bar basis and sums them over a chosen period. The difference between buy and sell currencies (Δ$) shows net inflow or outflow.
9.2 Inputs
• mf_period_len_mf: Number of bars used for summing buy and sell dollars.
• Label appearance settings: ATR length, multiplier, size, colors for up/down labels, and connector style and width.
• Toggles: Use enableMoneyFlowLabel_mf and showMFLabels to control whether the module and its labels are displayed.
9.3 Calculations
• Per-bar money: Buy $ = TF_buy_breakout × close; Sell $ = TF_sell_breakout × close. Their difference is Δ$ = Buy $ − Sell $.
• Summations: Over mf_period_len_mf bars, compute Σ Buy $, Σ Sell $ and ΣΔ$ using math.sum().
• Info table entries: Rows 9–13 display these values as texts like “↑ USD 1234 (1M)” or “ΣΔ USD −5678 (14)”, with colors reflecting whether buyers or sellers dominate.
• Money flow status: If Δ$ is positive the bar is marked “Money flow in” ; if negative, “Money flow out” ; if zero, “Neutral”. The cumulative status is similarly derived from ΣΔ.Labels print at the bar that changes the sign of ΣΔ, offset using ATR × label multiplier and styled per user preferences.
Figure caption, The chart illustrates a steady rise toward the highest recent pivot (HH1) with price riding between a rising green trend‑line and a red trend‑line drawn through earlier pivot highs. A green Money flow in label appears above the bar near the top of the channel, signaling that net dollar flow turned positive on this bar: buy‑side dollar volume exceeded sell‑side dollar volume, pushing the cumulative sum ΣΔ$ above zero. In the info table, the “Money flow (bar)” and “Money flow Σ” rows both read In, confirming that the indicator’s money‑flow module has detected an inflow at both bar and aggregate levels, while other modules (pivots, trend lines and support/resistance) remain active to provide structural context.
In this example the Money Flow module signals a net outflow. Price has been trending downward: successive high pivots form a falling red trend‑line and the low pivots form a descending green support line. When the latest bar broke below the previous low pivot (LL1), both the bar‑level and cumulative net dollar flow turned negative—selling volume at the close exceeded buying volume and pushed the cumulative Δ$ below zero. The module reacts by printing a red “Money flow out” label beneath the candle; the info table confirms that the “Money flow (bar)” and “Money flow Σ” rows both show Out, indicating sustained dominance of sellers in this period.
10. Info Table
10.1 Purpose
When enabled, the Info Table appears in the lower right of your chart. It summarises key values computed by the indicator—such as buy and sell volume, delta, total volume, breakout status, market phase, and money flow—so you can see at a glance which side is dominant and which signals are active.
10.2 Symbols
• ↑ / ↓ — Up (↑) denotes buy volume or money; down (↓) denotes sell volume or money.
• MA — Moving average. In the table it shows the average value of a series over the lookback period.
• Σ (Sigma) — Cumulative sum over the chosen lookback period.
• Δ (Delta) — Difference between buy and sell values.
• B / S — Buyer and seller share of total volume, expressed as percentages.
• Ref. Price — Reference price for breakout calculations, based on the latest pivot.
• Status — Indicates whether a breakout condition is currently active (True) or has failed.
10.3 Row definitions
1. Up volume / MA up volume – Displays current buy volume on the lower timeframe and its moving average over the lookback period.
2. Down volume / MA down volume – Shows current sell volume and its moving average; sell values are formatted in red for clarity.
3. Δ / ΣΔ – Lists the difference between buy and sell volume for the current bar and the cumulative delta volume over the lookback period.
4. Σ / MA Σ (Vol/MA) – Total volume (buy + sell) for the bar, with the ratio of this volume to its moving average; the right cell shows the average total volume.
5. B/S ratio – Buy and sell share of the total volume: current bar percentages and the average percentages across the lookback period.
6. Buyer Rank / Seller Rank – Ranks the bar’s buy and sell volumes among the last (n) bars; lower rank numbers indicate higher relative volume.
7. Σ Buy / Σ Sell – Sum of buy and sell volumes over the lookback window, indicating which side has traded more.
8. Breakout UP / DOWN – Shows the breakout thresholds (Ref. Price) and whether the breakout condition is active (True) or has failed.
9. Market Phase (Vol) – Reports the current volume‑only phase: Accumulation, Distribution or Neutral.
10. Money Flow – The final rows display dollar amounts and status:
– ↑ USD / Σ↑ USD – Buy dollars for the current bar and the cumulative sum over the money‑flow period.
– ↓ USD / Σ↓ USD – Sell dollars and their cumulative sum.
– Δ USD / ΣΔ USD – Net dollar difference (buy minus sell) for the bar and cumulatively.
– Money flow (bar) – Indicates whether the bar’s net dollar flow is positive (In), negative (Out) or neutral.
– Money flow Σ – Shows whether the cumulative net dollar flow across the chosen period is positive, negative or neutral.
The chart above shows a sequence of different signals from the indicator. A Bull Trap Risk appears after price briefly pushes above resistance but fails to hold, then a green Accum label identifies an accumulation phase. An upward breakout follows, confirmed by a Money flow in print. Later, a Sharp ↓ Risk warns of a possible sharp downturn; after price dips below support but quickly recovers, a Bear Trap label marks a false breakdown. The highlighted info table in the center summarizes key metrics at that moment, including current and average buy/sell volumes, net delta, total volume versus its moving average, breakout status (up and down), market phase (volume), and bar‑level and cumulative money flow (In/Out).
11. Conclusion & Final Remarks
This indicator was developed as a holistic study of market structure and order flow. It brings together several well‑known concepts from technical analysis—breakouts, accumulation and distribution phases, overbought and oversold extremes, bull and bear traps, sharp directional moves, market‑maker spread bars and money flow—into a single Pine Script tool. Each module is based on widely recognized trading ideas and was implemented after consulting reference materials and example strategies, so you can see in real time how these concepts interact on your chart.
A distinctive feature of this indicator is its reliance on per‑side volume: instead of tallying only total volume, it separately measures buy and sell transactions on a lower time frame. This approach gives a clearer view of who is in control—buyers or sellers—and helps filter breakouts, detect phases of accumulation or distribution, recognize potential traps, anticipate sharp moves and gauge whether liquidity providers are active. The money‑flow module extends this analysis by converting volume into currency values and tracking net inflow or outflow across a chosen window.
Although comprehensive, this indicator is intended solely as a guide. It highlights conditions and statistics that many traders find useful, but it does not generate trading signals or guarantee results. Ultimately, you remain responsible for your positions. Use the information presented here to inform your analysis, combine it with other tools and risk‑management techniques, and always make your own decisions when trading.
Tìm kiếm tập lệnh với "电力行业+股票+11年涨幅"
ICT SIlver Bullet Trading Windows UK times🎯 Purpose of the Indicator
It’s designed to highlight key ICT “macro” and “micro” windows of opportunity, i.e., time ranges where liquidity grabs and algorithmic setups are most likely to occur. The ICT Silver Bullet concept is built on the idea that institutions execute in recurring intraday windows, and these often produce high-probability setups.
🕰️ Windows
London Macro Window
10:00 – 11:00 UK time
This aligns with a major liquidity window after the London equities open settles and London + EU traders reposition.
You’re looking for setups like liquidity sweeps, MSS (market structure shift), and FVG entries here.
New York Macro Window
15:00 – 16:00 UK time (10:00 – 11:00 NY time)
This is right after the NY equities open, a key ICT window for volatility and liquidity grabs.
Power Hour
Usually 20:00 – 21:00 UK time (3pm–4pm NY time), the last trading hour of NY equities.
ICT often refers to this as another manipulation window where setups can form before the daily close.
🔍 What the Indicator Does
Draws session boxes or shading: so you can visually see the London/NY/Power Hour windows directly on your chart.
Macro vs. Micro time frames:
Macro windows → The ones you set (London & NY) are the major daily algo execution windows.
Micro windows → Within those boxes, ICT expects smaller intraday setups (like a Silver Bullet entry from a sweep + FVG).
Guides your trade selection: it tells you when not to hunt trades everywhere, but instead to wait for price action confirmation inside those boxes.
🧩 How This Fits ICT Silver Bullet Trading
The ICT Silver Bullet strategy says:
Wait for one of the macro windows (London or NY).
Look for liquidity sweep → market structure shift → FVG.
Enter with defined risk inside that hour.
This indicator essentially does step 1 for you: it makes those high-probability windows visually obvious, so you don’t waste time trading random hours where algos aren’t active.
Sunset Zones by PDVDescription
Sunset Zones by PDV is an intraday reference indicator that plots key horizontal levels based on selected “root candles” throughout the trading day. At each programmed time, the indicator identifies the high and low of the corresponding candle and projects those levels forward with extended lines, providing traders with a clean visual framework of potential intraday reaction zones.
These zones serve as reference levels for support, resistance, liquidity grabs, and session context, allowing traders to analyze how price reacts around time-specific structures. Unlike lagging indicators, Sunset Zones gives traders real-time, rule-based levels tied directly to the price action of specific moments in the session.
Key Features
Predefined Time Codes
The script comes with a curated list of intraday timestamps (in HHMM format). Each represents a “root candle” from which levels are generated. Examples include 03:12, 06:47, 07:41, 08:51, etc. These time codes can reflect historically important market moments such as session opens, liquidity sweeps, or volatility inflection points.
Automatic Zone Plotting
At each root time, the script captures the candle’s high and low and instantly extends those levels forward across the chart. This provides consistent, objective reference points for intraday trading.
Extended Lines
Levels are projected far into the future (default: 500 bars) so traders can easily track how price interacts with those zones throughout the day.
Color-Coded Levels
Each root time is assigned a distinct color for fast identification. For example:
03:12 → Fuchsia
06:47 → Purple
07:41 → Teal
08:51 → White
09:53 → White
10:20 → Orange
11:10 → Green
11:49 → Red
12:05 → White
13:05 → Teal
14:09 → Aqua
This helps traders quickly recognize which time-of-day level price is interacting with.
Lightweight & Visual
The indicator focuses purely on price and time, avoiding complexity or lagging signals. It can be layered with other analysis tools, order flow charts, or session-based studies.
Practical Use Cases
Intraday Bias:
Observe whether price respects, rejects, or consolidates around these reference levels to form a bias.
Liquidity Zones:
High/low sweeps of the root candle can act as liquidity pools where institutions might trigger stops or reversals.
Support & Resistance:
Extended lines create intraday S/R zones without the need to manually draw levels.
Confluence Finder:
Combine Sunset Zones with VWAP, session ranges, Fibonacci levels, or higher-timeframe structure for layered confluence.
Important Notes
This is a visual reference tool only. It does not generate buy or sell signals.
Default times are provided, but the concept is flexible — traders can adapt it by modifying or expanding the list of time codes.
Works best on intraday timeframes where session structure is most relevant (e.g., 1-minute to 15-minute charts).
✅ In short: Sunset Zones by PDV gives intraday traders a systematic way to anchor their charts to important time-based highs and lows, creating a consistent framework for analyzing price reactions across the day.
NY Sessions Boxes (Live Drawing)//@version=5
indicator("NY Sessions Boxes (Live Drawing)", overlay=true)
ny_tz = "America/New_York"
t = time(timeframe.period, ny_tz)
hour_ny = hour(t)
minute_ny = minute(t)
// سشن ۱: 02:00 – 05:00
session1_active = (hour_ny >= 2 and hour_ny < 5)
session1_start = (hour_ny == 2 and minute_ny == 0)
// سشن ۲: 09:30 – 11:00
session2_active = ((hour_ny == 9 and minute_ny >= 30) or (hour_ny > 9 and hour_ny < 11))
session2_start = (hour_ny == 9 and minute_ny == 30)
var box box1 = na
var float hi1 = na
var float lo1 = na
if session1_start
hi1 := high
lo1 := low
box1 := box.new(left = time, right = time, top = high, bottom = low, bgcolor=color.new(color.blue, 85), border_color=color.blue)
if session1_active and not na(box1)
hi1 := math.max(hi1, high)
lo1 := math.min(lo1, low)
box.set_right(box1, time)
box.set_top(box1, hi1)
box.set_bottom(box1, lo1)
if not session1_active and not na(box1)
box1 := na
hi1 := na
lo1 := na
var box box2 = na
var float hi2 = na
var float lo2 = na
if session2_start
hi2 := high
lo2 := low
box2 := box.new(left = time, right = time, top = high, bottom = low, bgcolor=color.new(color.purple, 85), border_color=color.purple)
if session2_active and not na(box2)
hi2 := math.max(hi2, high)
lo2 := math.min(lo2, low)
box.set_right(box2, time)
box.set_top(box2, hi2)
box.set_bottom(box2, lo2)
if not session2_active and not na(box2)
box2 := na
hi2 := na
lo2 := na
EAOBS by MIGVersion 1
1. Strategy Overview Objective: Capitalize on breakout movements in Ethereum (ETH) price after the Asian open pre-market session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST) by identifying high and low prices during the session and trading breakouts above the high or below the low.
Timeframe: Any (script is timeframe-agnostic, but align with session timing).
Session: Pre-market session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST, adjustable for other time zones, e.g., 12:00 AM–12:59 AM GMT).
Risk-Reward Ratios (R:R): Targets range from 1.2:1 to 5.2:1, with a fixed stop loss.
Instrument: Ethereum (ETH/USD or ETH-based pairs).
2. Market Setup Session Monitoring: Monitor ETH price action during the pre-market session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST), which aligns with the Asian market open (e.g., 9:00 AM–9:59 AM JST).
The script tracks the highest high and lowest low during this session.
Breakout Triggers: Buy Signal: Price breaks above the session’s high after the session ends (7:59 PM EST).
Sell Signal: Price breaks below the session’s low after the session ends.
Visualization: The session is highlighted on the chart with a white background.
Horizontal lines are drawn at the session’s high and low, extended for 30 bars, along with take-profit (TP) and stop-loss (SL) levels.
3. Entry Rules Long (Buy) Entry: Enter a long position when the price breaks above the session’s high price after 7:59 PM EST.
Entry price: Just above the session high (e.g., add a small buffer, like 0.1–0.5%, to avoid false breakouts, depending on volatility).
Short (Sell) Entry: Enter a short position when the price breaks below the session’s low price after 7:59 PM EST.
Entry price: Just below the session low (e.g., subtract a small buffer, like 0.1–0.5%).
Confirmation: Use a candlestick close above/below the breakout level to confirm the entry.
Optionally, add volume confirmation or a momentum indicator (e.g., RSI or MACD) to filter out weak breakouts.
Position Size: Calculate position size based on risk tolerance (e.g., 1–2% of account per trade).
Risk is determined by the stop-loss distance (10 points, as defined in the script).
4. Exit Rules Take-Profit Levels (in points, based on script inputs):TP1: 12 points (1.2:1 R:R).
TP2: 22 points (2.2:1 R:R).
TP3: 32 points (3.2:1 R:R).
TP4: 42 points (4.2:1 R:R).
TP5: 52 points (5.2:1 R:R).
Example for Long: If session high is 3000, TP levels are 3012, 3022, 3032, 3042, 3052.
Example for Short: If session low is 2950, TP levels are 2938, 2928, 2918, 2908, 2898.
Strategy: Scale out of the position (e.g., close 20% at TP1, 20% at TP2, etc.) or take full profit at a preferred TP level based on market conditions.
Stop-Loss: Fixed at 10 points from the entry.
Long SL: Session high - 10 points (e.g., entry at 3000, SL at 2990).
Short SL: Session low + 10 points (e.g., entry at 2950, SL at 2960).
Trailing Stop (Optional):After reaching TP2 or TP3, consider trailing the stop to lock in profits (e.g., trail by 10–15 points below the current price).
5. Risk Management per Trade: Limit risk to 1–2% of your trading account per trade.
Calculate position size: Account Size × Risk % ÷ (Stop-Loss Distance × ETH Price per Point).
Example: $10,000 account, 1% risk = $100. If SL = 10 points and 1 point = $1, position size = $100 ÷ 10 = 0.1 ETH.
Daily Risk Limit: Cap daily losses at 3–5% of the account to avoid overtrading.
Maximum Exposure: Avoid taking both long and short positions simultaneously unless using separate accounts or strategies.
Volatility Consideration: Adjust position size during high-volatility periods (e.g., major news events like Ethereum upgrades or macroeconomic announcements).
6. Trade Management Monitoring :Watch for breakouts after 7:59 PM EST.
Monitor price action near TP and SL levels using alerts or manual checks.
Trade Duration: Breakout lines extend for 30 bars (script parameter). Close trades if no TP or SL is hit within this period, or reassess based on market conditions.
Adjustments: If the market shows strong momentum, consider holding beyond TP5 with a trailing stop.
If the breakout fails (e.g., price reverses before TP1), exit early to minimize losses.
7. Additional Considerations Market Conditions: The 7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST session aligns with the Asian market open (e.g., Tokyo Stock Exchange open at 9:00 AM JST), which may introduce higher volatility due to Asian trading activity.
Avoid trading during low-liquidity periods or extreme volatility (e.g., major crypto news).
Check for upcoming events (e.g., Ethereum network upgrades, ETF decisions) that could impact price.
Backtesting: Test the strategy on historical ETH data using the session high/low breakouts for the 7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST window to validate performance.
Adjust TP/SL levels based on backtest results if needed.
Broker and Fees: Use a low-fee crypto exchange (e.g., Binance, Kraken, Coinbase Pro) to maximize R:R.
Account for trading fees and slippage in your position sizing.
Time zone Adjustment: Adjust session time input for your time zone (e.g., "0000-0059" for GMT).
Ensure your trading platform’s clock aligns with the script’s time zone (default: America/New_York).
8. Example Trade Scenario: Session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST) records a high of 3050 and a low of 3000.
Long Trade: Entry: Price breaks above 3050 (e.g., enter at 3051).
TP Levels: 3063 (TP1), 3073 (TP2), 3083 (TP3), 3093 (TP4), 3103 (TP5).
SL: 3040 (3050 - 10).
Position Size: For a $10,000 account, 1% risk = $100. SL = 11 points ($11). Size = $100 ÷ 11 = ~0.09 ETH.
Short Trade: Entry: Price breaks below 3000 (e.g., enter at 2999).
TP Levels: 2987 (TP1), 2977 (TP2), 2967 (TP3), 2957 (TP4), 2947 (TP5).
SL: 3010 (3000 + 10).
Position Size: Same as above, ~0.09 ETH.
Execution: Set alerts for breakouts, enter with limit orders, and monitor TPs/SL.
9. Tools and Setup Platform: Use TradingView to implement the Pine Script and visualize breakout levels.
Alerts: Set price alerts for breakouts above the session high or below the session low after 7:59 PM EST.
Set alerts for TP and SL levels.
Chart Settings: Use a 1-minute or 5-minute chart for precise session tracking.
Overlay the script to see high/low lines, TP levels, and SL levels.
Optional Indicators: Add RSI (e.g., avoid overbought/oversold breakouts) or volume to confirm breakouts.
10. Risk Warnings Crypto Volatility: ETH is highly volatile; unexpected news can cause rapid price swings.
False Breakouts: Breakouts may fail, especially in low-volume sessions. Use confirmation signals.
Leverage: Avoid high leverage (e.g., >5x) to prevent liquidation during volatile moves.
Session Accuracy: Ensure correct session timing for your time zone to avoid misaligned entries.
11. Performance Tracking Journaling :Record each trade’s entry, exit, R:R, and outcome.
Note market conditions (e.g., trending, ranging, news-driven).
Review: Weekly: Assess win rate, average R:R, and adherence to the plan.
Monthly: Adjust TP/SL or session timing based on performance.
SCTI V30Description
The SCTI V30 is an advanced multi-functional technical analysis indicator for TradingView that combines multiple analytical approaches into a single comprehensive tool. This indicator provides:
Multiple Moving Average Types (EMA, SMA, PMA with various calculation methods)
Customizable VWAP with standard deviation bands
Sophisticated Divergence Detection across 12 different indicators
Volume Profile Analysis with peak/trough detection
Highly Configurable Display Options
The indicator is designed to help traders identify trends, potential reversals, and key support/resistance levels across different timeframes.
Features
1. Moving Average Systems
EMA Section: 13 configurable EMA periods (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584)
SMA Section: 13 configurable SMA periods (same as EMA)
PMA Section: 11 customizable moving averages with multiple calculation methods:
ALMA, EMA, RMA, SMA, SWMA, VWAP, VWMA, WMA
Adjustable lengths from 12 to 1056
Customizable colors, widths, and fill options between MAs
2. VWAP Implementation
Multiple anchor periods (Session, Week, Month, Quarter, Year, etc.)
Standard deviation or percentage-based bands
Option to hide on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes
Customizable band multipliers (1.0, 2.0, 3.0)
3. Divergence Detection
Detects regular and hidden divergences across 12 indicators:
MACD, MACD Histogram, RSI, Stochastic, CCI, Momentum
OBV, VW-MACD, Chaikin Money Flow, Money Flow Index
Williams %R, and custom external indicators
Customizable detection parameters:
Pivot point period (1-50)
Source (Close or High/Low)
Divergence type (Regular, Hidden, or Both)
Minimum number of divergences required (1-11)
Maximum pivot points to check (1-20)
Maximum bars to look back (30-200)
4. Volume Profile Analysis
Configurable profile length (10-5000 bars)
Value Area threshold (0-100%)
Profile placement (Left or Right)
Number of rows (30-130)
Profile width adjustment
Volume node detection:
Peaks (with cluster option)
Troughs (with cluster option)
Highest/Lowest volume nodes
Customizable colors for all elements
Input Parameters
The indicator is organized into 7 parameter groups:
Basic Indicator Settings - Toggle visibility of main components
EMA Settings - Configure 13 EMA periods and visibility
SMA Settings - Configure 13 SMA periods and visibility
PMA Settings - Advanced moving average configuration
VWAP Settings - Volume-weighted average price configuration
Divergence Settings - Comprehensive divergence detection options
Volume Profile & Node Detection - Volume analysis configuration
How to Use
Trend Identification: Use the multiple moving averages to identify trend direction and strength. The Fibonacci-based periods (21, 34, 55, 89, 144, etc.) are particularly useful for this.
Support/Resistance: The VWAP and volume profile components help identify key support/resistance levels.
Divergence Trading: Look for divergences between price and the various indicators to spot potential reversal points.
Volume Analysis: The volume profile shows where the most trading activity occurred, highlighting important price levels.
Customization: Adjust the settings to match your trading style and timeframe. The indicator is highly configurable to suit different trading approaches.
Alerts
The indicator includes alert conditions for:
Positive regular divergence detected
Negative regular divergence detected
Positive hidden divergence detected
Negative hidden divergence detected
Any positive divergence (regular or hidden)
Any negative divergence (regular or hidden)
Notes
The indicator may be resource-intensive due to its comprehensive calculations, especially on lower timeframes with long lookback periods.
Some features (like VWAP) can be hidden on higher timeframes to improve performance.
The default settings are optimized for daily charts but can be adjusted for any timeframe.
This powerful all-in-one indicator provides traders with a complete toolkit for technical analysis, combining trend-following, momentum, volume, and divergence techniques into a single, customizable solution.
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
REFERENCES
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2007). Stock return predictability: Is it there? Review of Financial Studies, 20(3), 651-707.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-152.
Berger, P. G., & Ofek, E. (1995). Diversification's effect on firm value. Journal of Financial Economics, 37(1), 39-65.
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Calmar, T. (1991). The Calmar ratio: A smoother tool. Futures, 20(1), 40.
Edwards, R. D., Magee, J., & Bassetti, W. H. C. (2018). Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. 11th ed. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 3-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
Giot, P. (2005). Relationships between implied volatility indexes and stock index returns. Journal of Portfolio Management, 31(3), 92-100.
Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (2008). Security Analysis. 6th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Grinold, R. C., & Kahn, R. N. (1999). Active Portfolio Management. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Guidolin, M., & Timmermann, A. (2007). Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(11), 3503-3544.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk. Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Miller, G. A. (1956). The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological Review, 63(2), 81-97.
Penman, S. H. (2012). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Piotroski, J. D. (2000). Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers. Journal of Accounting Research, 38, 1-41.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Sharpe, W. F. (1994). The Sharpe ratio. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), 49-58.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Whaley, R. E. (1993). Derivatives on market volatility: Hedging tools long overdue. Journal of Derivatives, 1(1), 71-84.
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Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Greensboro: Trend Research.
Gold Power Hours Strategy📈 Gold Power Hours Trading Strategy
Trade XAUUSD (Gold) or XAUEUR during the most volatile hours of the New York session, using momentum and trend confirmation, with session-specific risk/reward profiles.
✅ Strategy Rules
🕒 Valid Trading Times ("Power Hours"):
Trades are only taken during high-probability time windows on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays , corresponding to key New York session activity:
Morning Session:
08:00 – 11:00 (NY time)
Afternoon Session:
12:30 – 16:00
19:00 – 22:00
These times align with institutional activity and economic news releases.
📊 Technical Indicators Used:
50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA50):
Identifies the dominant market trend.
14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Measures market momentum with session-adjusted thresholds.
🟩 Buy Signal Criteria:
Price is above the 50-period SMA (bullish trend)
RSI is greater than:
60 during Morning Session
55 during Afternoon Session
Must be during a valid day (Tue–Thu) and Power Hour session
🟥 Sell Signal Criteria:
Price is below the 50-period SMA (bearish trend)
RSI is less than:
40 during Morning Session
45 during Afternoon Session
Must be during a valid day and Power Hour session
🎯 Trade Management Rules:
Morning Session (08:00–11:00)
Stop Loss (SL): 50 pips
Take Profit (TP): 150 pips
Risk–Reward Ratio: 1:3
Afternoon Session (12:30–16:00 & 19:00–22:00)
Stop Loss (SL): 50 pips
Take Profit (TP): up to 100 pips
Risk–Reward Ratio: up to 1:2
⚠️ TP is slightly reduced in the afternoon due to typically lower volatility compared to the morning session.
📺 Visuals & Alerts:
Buy signals: Green triangle plotted below the bar
Sell signals: Red triangle plotted above the bar
SMA50 line: Orange
Valid session background: Light pink
Alerts: Automatic alerts for buy/sell signals
F&O Time Zones – Final Fixed📌 This indicator highlights high-probability intraday time zones used in Indian F&O (Futures & Options) strategies. Ideal for scalping, breakout setups, and trap avoidance.
🕒 Covered Time Zones:
• 9:15 – 9:21 AM → Flash Trades (first 1-minute volatility)
• 9:21 – 9:30 AM → Smart Money Trap (VWAP fakeouts)
• 9:30 – 9:50 AM → Fake Breakout Zone
• 9:50 – 10:15 AM → Institutional Entry Timing
• 10:15 – 10:45 AM → VWAP Range Scalps
• 10:45 – 11:15 AM → Second Trap Zone
• 11:15 – 1:00 PM → Trend Continuation Window
• 1:00 – 1:45 PM → Volatility Compression
• 1:45 – 2:15 PM → Institutional Exit Phase 1
• 2:15 – 2:45 PM → Trend Acceleration / Reversals
• 2:45 – 3:15 PM → Expiry Scalping Zone
• 3:15 – 3:30 PM → Dead Zone (square-off time)
🔧 Features:
✓ Clean vertical lines per zone
✓ Optional label positions (top or bottom)
✓ Adjustable line style, width, and color
🧠 Best used on: NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, FINNIFTY (5-min or lower)
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🔒 **Disclaimer**:
This script is for **educational purposes only**. It is not financial advice. Trading involves risk. Please consult a professional or do your own research before taking any positions.
—
👤 Script by: **JoanJagan**
🛠️ Built in Pine Script v5
Session Range ProjectionsSession Range Projections
Purpose & Concept:
Session Range Projections is a comprehensive trading tool that identifies and analyzes price ranges during user-defined time periods. The indicator visualizes high-probability reversal zones and profit targets by projecting Fibonacci levels from custom session ranges, making it ideal for traders who focus on time-based market structure analysis.
Key Features & Calculations:
1. Custom Time Range Analysis
- Define any time period for range calculation - from traditional sessions (Asian, London, NY) to custom periods like opening ranges, hourly ranges, or 4-hour blocks
- Automatically captures the highest and lowest prices within your specified timeframe
- Supports multiple timezone selections for global market analysis
- Flexible enough for intraday scalping ranges or longer-term swing trading setups
2. Premium & Discount Zones
- Automatically divides the range into premium (above 50%) and discount (below 50%) zones
- Visual differentiation helps identify institutional buying and selling areas
- Color-coded boxes clearly mark these critical price zones
3. Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) Zones
- Highlights the 79-89% retracement zone in premium territory
- Highlights the 11-21% retracement zone in discount territory
- These zones represent high-probability reversal areas based on institutional order flow concepts
4. Fibonacci Projections
- Projects 11 customizable Fibonacci extension levels from the range extremes
- Levels extend both above and below the range for symmetrical analysis
- Each level can be individually toggled and color-customized
- Default levels include common retracement ratios: -0.5, -1.0, -2.0, -2.33, -2.5, -3.0, -4.0, -4.5, -6.0, -7.0, -8.0
How to Use:
Set Your Time Range: Input your desired session start and end times (24-hour format)
Select Timezone: Choose the appropriate timezone for your trading session
Customize Display: Toggle various visual elements based on your preferences
Monitor Price Action: Watch for reactions at projected levels and OTE zones
Set Alerts: Configure sweep alerts for when price breaks above/below range extremes
Input Parameters Explained:
Time Range Settings
Range Start/End Hour & Minute: Define your analysis period
Time Zone: Ensure accurate session timing across different markets
Visual Settings
Range Box: Toggle the premium/discount zone visualization
Horizontal Lines: Customize high/low line appearance
Internal Range Levels: Show/hide equilibrium and OTE zones
Labels: Configure text display for key levels
Fibonacci Projections: Enable/disable extension levels
Display Settings
Historical Ranges: Show up to 10 previous session ranges
Alert Type: Choose between high sweep, low sweep, or both
Trading Applications:
Session-Based Trading: Analyze specific market sessions (Asian, London, New York, opening ranges, hourly ranges)
Reversal Trading: Identify high-probability reversal zones at OTE levels
Breakout/Reversal Trading: Monitor range breaks/reversals with built-in sweep alerts
Risk Management: Use Fibonacci projections as profit targets or rejection areas
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Apply to any timeframe for various trading styles
Important Notes:
This indicator is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Always use proper risk management when trading
The indicator automatically manages historical data to maintain chart performance
TBL Session Highs&LowsBL Session Highs&Lows is a versatile intraday tool that highlights key price levels within up to 11 configurable trading sessions. It displays session highs, lows, and optional open levels, with customizable lines, labels, and boxes — perfect for tracking price behavior across sessions like Asia, London, and New York.
🔧 Key Features
🧩 Up to 11 fully customizable sessions
📍 High, Low, and Open lines with adjustable color, style, and width
🧱 Optional boxes showing session range, dynamically colored based on price movement
🏷️ Session labels for visual orientation
🔁 Extendable lines to project levels beyond the session
🌐 Custom time zone support for each session
🎨 Fully customizable visuals for clear chart integration
📈 Designed for:
Intraday session tracking (e.g., Asia, London, NY)
Session-based strategies (breakouts, reversals, liquidity zones)
Open-level reference (e.g., NY open)
Visual separation of trading periods
Example Scenarios:
🟦 "Asia" session: 18:00–00:00 GMT-4 with full box and lines
🟩 "London" session: 00:00–06:00 with high/low lines only
🟥 Segmented NY sessions (Q1–Q4) for fine-grained intraday tracking
✅ Tip: Enable only the sessions you need to keep your chart clean and focused.
MACD + RSI + EMA + BB + ATR Day Trading StrategyEntry Conditions and Signals
The strategy implements a multi-layered filtering approach to entry conditions, requiring alignment across technical indicators, timeframes, and market conditions .
Long Entry Requirements
Trend Filter: Fast EMA (9) must be above Slow EMA (21), price must be above Fast EMA, and higher timeframe must confirm uptrend
MACD Signal: MACD line crosses above signal line, indicating increasing bullish momentum
RSI Condition: RSI below 70 (not overbought) but above 40 (showing momentum)
Volume & Volatility: Current volume exceeds 1.2x 20-period average and ATR shows sufficient market movement
Time Filter: Trading occurs during optimal hours (9:30-11:30 AM ET) when market volatility is typically highest
Exit Strategies
The strategy employs multiple exit mechanisms to adapt to changing market conditions and protect profits :
Stop Loss Management
Initial Stop: Placed at 2.0x ATR from entry price, adapting to current market volatility
Trailing Stop: 1.5x ATR trailing stop that moves up (for longs) or down (for shorts) as price moves favorably
Time-Based Exits: All positions closed by end of trading day (4:00 PM ET) to avoid overnight risk
Best Practices for Implementation
Settings
Chart Setup: 5-minute timeframe for execution with 15-minute chart for trend confirmation
Session Times: Focus on 9:30-11:30 AM ET trading for highest volatility and opportunity
Bear Market Probability Model# Bear Market Probability Model: A Multi-Factor Risk Assessment Framework
The Bear Market Probability Model represents a comprehensive quantitative framework for assessing systemic market risk through the integration of 13 distinct risk factors across four analytical categories: macroeconomic indicators, technical analysis factors, market sentiment measures, and market breadth metrics. This indicator synthesizes established financial research methodologies to provide real-time probabilistic assessments of impending bear market conditions, offering institutional-grade risk management capabilities to retail and professional traders alike.
## Theoretical Foundation
### Historical Context of Bear Market Prediction
Bear market prediction has been a central focus of financial research since the seminal work of Dow (1901) and the subsequent development of technical analysis theory. The challenge of predicting market downturns gained renewed academic attention following the market crashes of 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008, leading to the development of sophisticated multi-factor models.
Fama and French (1989) demonstrated that certain financial variables possess predictive power for stock returns, particularly during market stress periods. Their three-factor model laid the groundwork for multi-dimensional risk assessment, which this indicator extends through the incorporation of real-time market microstructure data.
### Methodological Framework
The model employs a weighted composite scoring methodology based on the theoretical framework established by Campbell and Shiller (1998) for market valuation assessment, extended through the incorporation of high-frequency sentiment and technical indicators as proposed by Baker and Wurgler (2006) in their seminal work on investor sentiment.
The mathematical foundation follows the general form:
Bear Market Probability = Σ(Wi × Ci) / ΣWi × 100
Where:
- Wi = Category weight (i = 1,2,3,4)
- Ci = Normalized category score
- Categories: Macroeconomic, Technical, Sentiment, Breadth
## Component Analysis
### 1. Macroeconomic Risk Factors
#### Yield Curve Analysis
The inclusion of yield curve inversion as a primary predictor follows extensive research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who demonstrated that the term spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury securities has historically preceded all major recessions since 1969. The model incorporates both the 2Y-10Y and 3M-10Y spreads to capture different aspects of monetary policy expectations.
Implementation:
- 2Y-10Y Spread: Captures market expectations of monetary policy trajectory
- 3M-10Y Spread: Traditional recession predictor with 12-18 month lead time
Scientific Basis: Harvey (1988) and subsequent research by Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2006) established the theoretical foundation linking yield curve inversions to economic contractions through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure.
#### Credit Risk Premium Assessment
High-yield credit spreads serve as a real-time gauge of systemic risk, following the methodology established by Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) in their excess bond premium research. The model incorporates the ICE BofA High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread as a proxy for credit market stress.
Threshold Calibration:
- Normal conditions: < 350 basis points
- Elevated risk: 350-500 basis points
- Severe stress: > 500 basis points
#### Currency and Commodity Stress Indicators
The US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum serves as a risk-off indicator, while the Gold-to-Oil ratio captures commodity market stress dynamics. This approach follows the methodology of Akram (2009) and Beckmann, Berger, and Czudaj (2015) in analyzing commodity-currency relationships during market stress.
### 2. Technical Analysis Factors
#### Multi-Timeframe Moving Average Analysis
The technical component incorporates the well-established moving average convergence methodology, drawing from the work of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), who provided empirical evidence for the profitability of technical trading rules.
Implementation:
- Price relative to 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages
- Moving average convergence/divergence analysis
- Multi-timeframe MACD assessment (daily and weekly)
#### Momentum and Volatility Analysis
The model integrates Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis following Wilder's (1978) original methodology, combined with maximum drawdown analysis based on the work of Magdon-Ismail and Atiya (2004) on optimal drawdown measurement.
### 3. Market Sentiment Factors
#### Volatility Index Analysis
The VIX component follows the established research of Whaley (2009) and subsequent work by Bekaert and Hoerova (2014) on VIX as a predictor of market stress. The model incorporates both absolute VIX levels and relative VIX spikes compared to the 20-day moving average.
Calibration:
- Low volatility: VIX < 20
- Elevated concern: VIX 20-25
- High fear: VIX > 25
- Panic conditions: VIX > 30
#### Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Options flow analysis through put-call ratios provides insight into sophisticated investor positioning, following the methodology established by Pan and Poteshman (2006) in their analysis of informed trading in options markets.
### 4. Market Breadth Factors
#### Advance-Decline Analysis
Market breadth assessment follows the classic work of Fosback (1976) and subsequent research by Brown and Cliff (2004) on market breadth as a predictor of future returns.
Components:
- Daily advance-decline ratio
- Advance-decline line momentum
- McClellan Oscillator (Ema19 - Ema39 of A-D difference)
#### New Highs-New Lows Analysis
The new highs-new lows ratio serves as a market leadership indicator, based on the research of Zweig (1986) and validated in academic literature by Zarowin (1990).
## Dynamic Threshold Methodology
The model incorporates adaptive thresholds based on rolling volatility and trend analysis, following the methodology established by Pagan and Sossounov (2003) for business cycle dating. This approach allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing market conditions.
Dynamic Threshold Calculation:
- Warning Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.0)
- Danger Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.5)
- Bounds: ±10-20 points from base threshold
## Professional Implementation
### Institutional Usage Patterns
Professional risk managers typically employ multi-factor bear market models in several contexts:
#### 1. Portfolio Risk Management
- Tactical Asset Allocation: Reducing equity exposure when probability exceeds 60-70%
- Hedging Strategies: Implementing protective puts or VIX calls when warning thresholds are breached
- Sector Rotation: Shifting from growth to defensive sectors during elevated risk periods
#### 2. Risk Budgeting
- Value-at-Risk Adjustment: Incorporating bear market probability into VaR calculations
- Stress Testing: Using probability levels to calibrate stress test scenarios
- Capital Requirements: Adjusting regulatory capital based on systemic risk assessment
#### 3. Client Communication
- Risk Reporting: Quantifying market risk for client presentations
- Investment Committee Decisions: Providing objective risk metrics for strategic decisions
- Performance Attribution: Explaining defensive positioning during market stress
### Implementation Framework
Professional traders typically implement such models through:
#### Signal Hierarchy:
1. Probability < 30%: Normal risk positioning
2. Probability 30-50%: Increased hedging, reduced leverage
3. Probability 50-70%: Defensive positioning, cash building
4. Probability > 70%: Maximum defensive posture, short exposure consideration
#### Risk Management Integration:
- Position Sizing: Inverse relationship between probability and position size
- Stop-Loss Adjustment: Tighter stops during elevated risk periods
- Correlation Monitoring: Increased attention to cross-asset correlations
## Strengths and Advantages
### 1. Comprehensive Coverage
The model's primary strength lies in its multi-dimensional approach, avoiding the single-factor bias that has historically plagued market timing models. By incorporating macroeconomic, technical, sentiment, and breadth factors, the model provides robust risk assessment across different market regimes.
### 2. Dynamic Adaptability
The adaptive threshold mechanism allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing volatility conditions, reducing false signals during low-volatility periods and maintaining sensitivity during high-volatility regimes.
### 3. Real-Time Processing
Unlike traditional academic models that rely on monthly or quarterly data, this indicator processes daily market data, providing timely risk assessment for active portfolio management.
### 4. Transparency and Interpretability
The component-based structure allows users to understand which factors are driving risk assessment, enabling informed decision-making about model signals.
### 5. Historical Validation
Each component has been validated in academic literature, providing theoretical foundation for the model's predictive power.
## Limitations and Weaknesses
### 1. Data Dependencies
The model's effectiveness depends heavily on the availability and quality of real-time economic data. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) updates may have lags that could impact model responsiveness during rapidly evolving market conditions.
### 2. Regime Change Sensitivity
Like most quantitative models, the indicator may struggle during unprecedented market conditions or structural regime changes where historical relationships break down (Taleb, 2007).
### 3. False Signal Risk
Multi-factor models inherently face the challenge of balancing sensitivity with specificity. The model may generate false positive signals during normal market volatility periods.
### 4. Currency and Geographic Bias
The model focuses primarily on US market indicators, potentially limiting its effectiveness for global portfolio management or non-USD denominated assets.
### 5. Correlation Breakdown
During extreme market stress, correlations between risk factors may increase dramatically, reducing the model's diversification benefits (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002).
## References
Akram, Q. F. (2009). Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar. Energy Economics, 31(6), 838-851.
Ang, A., Piazzesi, M., & Wei, M. (2006). What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth? Journal of Econometrics, 131(1-2), 359-403.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292.
Beckmann, J., Berger, T., & Czudaj, R. (2015). Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach. Economic Modelling, 48, 16-24.
Bekaert, G., & Hoerova, M. (2014). The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 183(2), 181-192.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731-1764.
Brown, G. W., & Cliff, M. T. (2004). Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.
Campbell, J. Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1998). Valuation ratios and the long-run stock market outlook. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24(2), 11-26.
Dow, C. H. (1901). Scientific stock speculation. The Magazine of Wall Street.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1989). Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 25(1), 23-49.
Forbes, K. J., & Rigobon, R. (2002). No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market comovements. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2223-2261.
Fosback, N. G. (1976). Stock market logic: A sophisticated approach to profits on Wall Street. The Institute for Econometric Research.
Gilchrist, S., & Zakrajšek, E. (2012). Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations. American Economic Review, 102(4), 1692-1720.
Harvey, C. R. (1988). The real term structure and consumption growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(2), 305-333.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Magdon-Ismail, M., & Atiya, A. F. (2004). Maximum drawdown. Risk, 17(10), 99-102.
Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220.
Pagan, A. R., & Sossounov, K. A. (2003). A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 23-46.
Pan, J., & Poteshman, A. M. (2006). The information in option volume for future stock prices. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(3), 871-908.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.
Whaley, R. E. (2009). Understanding the VIX. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 35(3), 98-105.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New concepts in technical trading systems. Trend Research.
Zarowin, P. (1990). Size, seasonality, and stock market overreaction. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 25(1), 113-125.
Zweig, M. E. (1986). Winning on Wall Street. Warner Books.
LANZ Strategy 2.0 [Backtest]🔷 LANZ Strategy 2.0 — Structural Breakout Logic with Dynamic Swing Protection
LANZ Strategy 2.0 is a precision-focused backtesting system built for intraday traders who rely on structural confirmations before the London session to guide directional bias. This tool uses smart swing detection, risk-defined position sizing, and strict time-based execution to simulate real trading conditions with clarity and control.
🧠 Core Components:
Structural Confirmation (Trend & BoS): Detects trend direction and break of structure (BoS) using a three-swing logic, aligning trade entries with valid structural movement.
Time-Based Execution: Trades are triggered exclusively at 02:00 a.m. New York time, ensuring disciplined and repeatable intraday testing.
Swing-Based SL Models: Traders can select between three stop-loss protection types:
First Swing: Most recent structural level
Second Swing: Prior level
Full Coverage: All recent swing levels + configurable pip buffer
Dynamic TP Calculation: Take-Profit is projected as a risk-based multiple (RR), fully adjustable via input.
Capital-Based Risk Management: Risk is defined as a percentage of a fixed account size (e.g., $100 per trade from $10,000), and lot size is automatically calculated based on SL distance.
Fallback Entry Logic: If structural breakout is present but trend is not confirmed, a secondary entry is triggered.
End-of-Session Management: Any open trades are automatically closed at 11:45 a.m. NY time, with optional manual labeling or review.
📊 Visual Features (Optional in Indicator Version):
(Note: Visuals apply to the indicator version of LANZ 2.0, not this backtest script)
Swing level labels (1st, 2nd) and dynamic SL/TP lines.
Real-time session coloring for clarity: Pre-London, Entry Window, and NY Close.
Outcome labels: +RR, -RR, or net % at close.
Auto-cleanup of previous drawings for a clean chart per session.
⚙️ How It Works:
Detects last trend and BoS using swing logic before 02:00 a.m. NY.
At 02:00 a.m., evaluates directional bias and executes BUY or SELL if confirmed.
Applies selected SL logic (1st, 2nd, or full swing protection).
Sets TP based on the RR multiplier.
Closes the trade either on SL, TP, or at 11:45 a.m. NY manually.
🔔 Alerts:
Time-of-day alert at 02:00 a.m. NY to monitor execution.
Can be extended to cover SL/TP triggers or new BoS events.
📝 Notes:
Designed for backtesting precision and discretionary decision-making.
Ideal for Forex pairs, indices, or assets active during the London session.
Fully customizable: session timing, swing logic, SL buffer, and RR.
👤 Credits:
Strategy built by @rau_u_lanz using Pine Script v6, combining structural logic, capital-based risk control, and London-session timing in a backtest-ready framework for traders who demand accuracy and structure.
Why EMA Isn't What You Think It IsMany new traders adopt the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) believing it's simply a "better Simple Moving Average (SMA)". This common misconception leads to fundamental misunderstandings about how EMA works and when to use it.
EMA and SMA differ at their core. SMA use a window of finite number of data points, giving equal weight to each data point in the calculation period. This makes SMA a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filter in signal processing terms. Remember that FIR means that "all that we need is the 'period' number of data points" to calculate the filter value. Anything beyond the given period is not relevant to FIR filters – much like how a security camera with 14-day storage automatically overwrites older footage, making last month's activity completely invisible regardless of how important it might have been.
EMA, however, is an Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filter. It uses ALL historical data, with each past price having a diminishing - but never zero - influence on the calculated value. This creates an EMA response that extends infinitely into the past—not just for the last N periods. IIR filters cannot be precise if we give them only a 'period' number of data to work on - they will be off-target significantly due to lack of context, like trying to understand Game of Thrones by watching only the final season and wondering why everyone's so upset about that dragon lady going full pyromaniac.
If we only consider a number of data points equal to the EMA's period, we are capturing no more than 86.5% of the total weight of the EMA calculation. Relying on he period window alone (the warm-up period) will provide only 1 - (1 / e^2) weights, which is approximately 1−0.1353 = 0.8647 = 86.5%. That's like claiming you've read a book when you've skipped the first few chapters – technically, you got most of it, but you probably miss some crucial early context.
▶️ What is period in EMA used for?
What does a period parameter really mean for EMA? When we select a 15-period EMA, we're not selecting a window of 15 data points as with an SMA. Instead, we are using that number to calculate a decay factor (α) that determines how quickly older data loses influence in EMA result. Every trader knows EMA calculation: α = 1 / (1+period) – or at least every trader claims to know this while secretly checking the formula when they need it.
Thinking in terms of "period" seriously restricts EMA. The α parameter can be - should be! - any value between 0.0 and 1.0, offering infinite tuning possibilities of the indicator. When we limit ourselves to whole-number periods that we use in FIR indicators, we can only access a small subset of possible IIR calculations – it's like having access to the entire RGB color spectrum with 16.7 million possible colors but stubbornly sticking to the 8 basic crayons in a child's first art set because the coloring book only mentioned those by name.
For example:
Period 10 → alpha = 0.1818
Period 11 → alpha = 0.1667
What about wanting an alpha of 0.17, which might yield superior returns in your strategy that uses EMA? No whole-number period can provide this! Direct α parameterization offers more precision, much like how an analog tuner lets you find the perfect radio frequency while digital presets force you to choose only from predetermined stations, potentially missing the clearest signal sitting right between channels.
Sidenote: the choice of α = 1 / (1+period) is just a convention from 1970s, probably started by J. Welles Wilder, who popularized the use of the 14-day EMA. It was designed to create an approximate equivalence between EMA and SMA over the same number of periods, even thought SMA needs a period window (as it is FIR filter) and EMA doesn't. In reality, the decay factor α in EMA should be allowed any valye between 0.0 and 1.0, not just some discrete values derived from an integer-based period! Algorithmic systems should find the best α decay for EMA directly, allowing the system to fine-tune at will and not through conversion of integer period to float α decay – though this might put a few traditionalist traders into early retirement. Well, to prevent that, most traditionalist implementations of EMA only use period and no alpha at all. Heaven forbid we disturb people who print their charts on paper, draw trendlines with rulers, and insist the market "feels different" since computers do algotrading!
▶️ Calculating EMAs Efficiently
The standard textbook formula for EMA is:
EMA = CurrentPrice × alpha + PreviousEMA × (1 - alpha)
But did you know that a more efficient version exists, once you apply a tiny bit of high school algebra:
EMA = alpha × (CurrentPrice - PreviousEMA) + PreviousEMA
The first one requires three operations: 2 multiplications + 1 addition. The second one also requires three ops: 1 multiplication + 1 addition + 1 subtraction.
That's pathetic, you say? Not worth implementing? In most computational models, multiplications cost much more than additions/subtractions – much like how ordering dessert costs more than asking for a water refill at restaurants.
Relative CPU cost of float operations :
Addition/Subtraction: ~1 cycle
Multiplication: ~5 cycles (depending on precision and architecture)
Now you see the difference? 2 * 5 + 1 = 11 against 5 + 1 + 1 = 7. That is ≈ 36.36% efficiency gain just by swapping formulas around! And making your high school math teacher proud enough to finally put your test on the refrigerator.
▶️ The Warmup Problem: how to start the EMA sequence right
How do we calculate the first EMA value when there's no previous EMA available? Let's see some possible options used throughout the history:
Start with zero : EMA(0) = 0. This creates stupidly large distortion until enough bars pass for the horrible effect to diminish – like starting a trading account with zero balance but backdating a year of missed trades, then watching your balance struggle to climb out of a phantom debt for months.
Start with first price : EMA(0) = first price. This is better than starting with zero, but still causes initial distortion that will be extra-bad if the first price is an outlier – like forming your entire opinion of a stock based solely on its IPO day price, then wondering why your model is tanking for weeks afterward.
Use SMA for warmup : This is the tradition from the pencil-and-paper era of technical analysis – when calculators were luxury items and "algorithmic trading" meant your broker had neat handwriting. We first calculate an SMA over the initial period, then kickstart the EMA with this average value. It's widely used due to tradition, not merit, creating a mathematical Frankenstein that uses an FIR filter (SMA) during the initial period before abruptly switching to an IIR filter (EMA). This methodology is so aesthetically offensive (abrupt kink on the transition from SMA to EMA) that charting platforms hide these early values entirely, pretending EMA simply doesn't exist until the warmup period passes – the technical analysis equivalent of sweeping dust under the rug.
Use WMA for warmup : This one was never popular because it is harder to calculate with a pencil - compared to using simple SMA for warmup. Weighted Moving Average provides a much better approximation of a starting value as its linear descending profile is much closer to the EMA's decay profile.
These methods all share one problem: they produce inaccurate initial values that traders often hide or discard, much like how hedge funds conveniently report awesome performance "since strategy inception" only after their disastrous first quarter has been surgically removed from the track record.
▶️ A Better Way to start EMA: Decaying compensation
Think of it this way: An ideal EMA uses an infinite history of prices, but we only have data starting from a specific point. This creates a problem - our EMA starts with an incorrect assumption that all previous prices were all zero, all close, or all average – like trying to write someone's biography but only having information about their life since last Tuesday.
But there is a better way. It requires more than high school math comprehension and is more computationally intensive, but is mathematically correct and numerically stable. This approach involves compensating calculated EMA values for the "phantom data" that would have existed before our first price point.
Here's how phantom data compensation works:
We start our normal EMA calculation:
EMA_today = EMA_yesterday + α × (Price_today - EMA_yesterday)
But we add a correction factor that adjusts for the missing history:
Correction = 1 at the start
Correction = Correction × (1-α) after each calculation
We then apply this correction:
True_EMA = Raw_EMA / (1-Correction)
This correction factor starts at 1 (full compensation effect) and gets exponentially smaller with each new price bar. After enough data points, the correction becomes so small (i.e., below 0.0000000001) that we can stop applying it as it is no longer relevant.
Let's see how this works in practice:
For the first price bar:
Raw_EMA = 0
Correction = 1
True_EMA = Price (since 0 ÷ (1-1) is undefined, we use the first price)
For the second price bar:
Raw_EMA = α × (Price_2 - 0) + 0 = α × Price_2
Correction = 1 × (1-α) = (1-α)
True_EMA = α × Price_2 ÷ (1-(1-α)) = Price_2
For the third price bar:
Raw_EMA updates using the standard formula
Correction = (1-α) × (1-α) = (1-α)²
True_EMA = Raw_EMA ÷ (1-(1-α)²)
With each new price, the correction factor shrinks exponentially. After about -log₁₀(1e-10)/log₁₀(1-α) bars, the correction becomes negligible, and our EMA calculation matches what we would get if we had infinite historical data.
This approach provides accurate EMA values from the very first calculation. There's no need to use SMA for warmup or discard early values before output converges - EMA is mathematically correct from first value, ready to party without the awkward warmup phase.
Here is Pine Script 6 implementation of EMA that can take alpha parameter directly (or period if desired), returns valid values from the start, is resilient to dirty input values, uses decaying compensator instead of SMA, and uses the least amount of computational cycles possible.
// Enhanced EMA function with proper initialization and efficient calculation
ema(series float source, simple int period=0, simple float alpha=0)=>
// Input validation - one of alpha or period must be provided
if alpha<=0 and period<=0
runtime.error("Alpha or period must be provided")
// Calculate alpha from period if alpha not directly specified
float a = alpha > 0 ? alpha : 2.0 / math.max(period, 1)
// Initialize variables for EMA calculation
var float ema = na // Stores raw EMA value
var float result = na // Stores final corrected EMA
var float e = 1.0 // Decay compensation factor
var bool warmup = true // Flag for warmup phase
if not na(source)
if na(ema)
// First value case - initialize EMA to zero
// (we'll correct this immediately with the compensation)
ema := 0
result := source
else
// Standard EMA calculation (optimized formula)
ema := a * (source - ema) + ema
if warmup
// During warmup phase, apply decay compensation
e *= (1-a) // Update decay factor
float c = 1.0 / (1.0 - e) // Calculate correction multiplier
result := c * ema // Apply correction
// Stop warmup phase when correction becomes negligible
if e <= 1e-10
warmup := false
else
// After warmup, EMA operates without correction
result := ema
result // Return the properly compensated EMA value
▶️ CONCLUSION
EMA isn't just a "better SMA"—it is a fundamentally different tool, like how a submarine differs from a sailboat – both float, but the similarities end there. EMA responds to inputs differently, weighs historical data differently, and requires different initialization techniques.
By understanding these differences, traders can make more informed decisions about when and how to use EMA in trading strategies. And as EMA is embedded in so many other complex and compound indicators and strategies, if system uses tainted and inferior EMA calculatiomn, it is doing a disservice to all derivative indicators too – like building a skyscraper on a foundation of Jell-O.
The next time you add an EMA to your chart, remember: you're not just looking at a "faster moving average." You're using an INFINITE IMPULSE RESPONSE filter that carries the echo of all previous price actions, properly weighted to help make better trading decisions.
EMA done right might significantly improve the quality of all signals, strategies, and trades that rely on EMA somewhere deep in its algorithmic bowels – proving once again that math skills are indeed useful after high school, no matter what your guidance counselor told you.
LANZ Strategy 2.0🔷 LANZ Strategy 2.0 — London Breakout Confirmation with Structural Swing Protection
LANZ Strategy 2.0 is a structured trading system that leverages the last confirmed market direction before the London session to define directional bias and manage trades based on key structural swing levels. It is tailored for intraday traders looking to capitalize on early London volatility with built-in risk management and visual clarity.
🧠 Core Components:
Directional Confirmation (Pre-London Bias): Validates the last breakout or structural move from the 15-minute timeframe before 02:15 a.m. New York time (start of the London session), establishing the expected market direction.
Time-Based Execution: Executes potential entries strictly at 02:15 a.m. NY time, using market structure to support Long or Short bias.
Dynamic Swing-Based SL System: Allows user to select between three SL protection models: First Swing (most recent structural point) Second Swing (prior level) Total Coverage (includes both swings + extra buffer) This supports flexibility based on trader profile or market conditions.
Visual Risk Mapping: All SL and TP levels are clearly plotted.
End-of-Session Management: Positions are automatically evaluated for closure at 11:45 a.m. NY time. SL, TP, or manual close outcomes are labeled accordingly.
📊 Visual Features:
Labels for 1st and 2nd swing levels upon entry.
Dynamic lines projecting SL/TP levels toward the end of the session.
Session background coloring for Pre-London, Execution, and NY sessions.
Real-time percentage outcome labels (+2.00%, -1.00%, or net % at session end).
Automatic deletion of previous visuals on new entries for clean charting.
⚙️ How It Works:
Detects last structural breakout on the 15m timeframe before 02:15 a.m. NY.
On the 02:15 a.m. candle, executes a Long or Short logic entry.
Plots corresponding SL and TP based on selected swing model.
Monitors price action: If TP or SL is hit, labels it accordingly. If no exit is hit, trade closes manually at 11:45 a.m. NY with net result shown.
Optional logic to reverse entries if market structure breaks before execution.
🔔 Alerts:
Daily execution alert at 02:15 a.m. NY (prompting manual review or action).
Optional alert logic can be extended for SL/TP hits or structure breaks.
📝 Notes:
Designed for semi-automated or discretionary intraday trading.
Best used on Forex pairs or indices with strong London session behavior.
Adjustable parameters include session hours, swing SL type, and buffer settings.
Credits:
Developed by LANZ, this script combines time-based execution with dynamic structure protection, offering a disciplined framework for participating in the London session breakout with clear visuals and risk logic.
Time-Based Fair Value Gaps (FVG) with Inversions (iFVG)Overview
The Time-Based Fair Value Gaps (FVG) with Inversions (iFVG) (ICT/SMT) indicator is a specialized tool designed for traders using Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodologies. Inspired by LuxAlgo's Fair Value Gap indicator, this script introduces significant enhancements by integrating ICT principles, focusing on precise time-based FVG detection, inversion tracking, and retest signals tailored for institutional trading strategies. Unlike LuxAlgo’s general FVG approach, this indicator filters FVGs within customizable 10-minute windows aligned with ICT’s macro timeframes and incorporates ICT-specific concepts like mitigation, liquidity grabs, and session-based gap prioritization.
This tool is optimized for 1–5 minute charts, though probably best for 1 minute charts, identifying bullish and bearish FVGs, tracking their mitigation into inverted FVGs (iFVGs) as key support/resistance zones, and generating retest signals with customizable “Close” or “Wick” confirmation. Features like ATR-based filtering, optional FVG labels, mitigation removal, and session-specific FVG detection (e.g., first FVG in AM/PM sessions) make it a powerful tool for ICT traders.
Originality and Improvements
While inspired by LuxAlgo’s FVG indicator (credit to LuxAlgo for their foundational work), this script significantly extends the original concept by:
1. Time-Based FVG Detection: Unlike LuxAlgo’s continuous FVG identification, this script filters FVGs within user-defined 10-minute windows each hour (:00–:10, :10–:20, etc.), aligning with ICT’s emphasis on specific periods of institutional activity, such as hourly opens/closes or kill zones (e.g., New York 7:00–11:00 AM EST). This ensures FVGs are relevant to high-probability ICT setups.
2. Session-Specific First FVG Option: A unique feature allows traders to display only the first FVG in ICT-defined AM (9:30–10:00 AM EST) or PM (1:30–2:00 PM EST) sessions, reflecting ICT’s focus on initial market imbalances during key liquidity events.
3. ICT-Driven Mitigation and Inversion Logic: The script tracks FVG mitigation (when price closes through a gap) and converts mitigated FVGs into iFVGs, which serve as ICT-style support/resistance zones. This aligns with ICT’s view that mitigated gaps become critical reversal points, unlike LuxAlgo’s simpler gap display.
4. Customizable Retest Signals: Retest signals for iFVGs are configurable for “Close” (conservative, requiring candle body confirmation) or “Wick” (faster, using highs/lows), catering to ICT traders’ need for precise entry timing during liquidity grabs or Judas swings.
5. ATR Filtering and Mitigation Removal: An optional ATR filter ensures only significant FVGs are displayed, reducing noise, while mitigation removal declutters the chart by removing filled gaps, aligning with ICT’s principle that mitigated gaps lose relevance unless inverted.
6. Timezone and Timeframe Safeguards: A timezone offset setting aligns FVG detection with EST for ICT’s New York-centric strategies, and a timeframe warning alerts users to avoid ≥1-hour charts, ensuring accuracy in time-based filtering.
These enhancements make the script a distinct tool that builds on LuxAlgo’s foundation while offering ICT traders a tailored, high-precision solution.
How It Works
FVG Detection
FVGs are identified when a candle’s low is higher than the high of two candles prior (bullish FVG) or a candle’s high is lower than the low of two candles prior (bearish FVG). Detection is restricted to:
• User-selected 10-minute windows (e.g., :00–:10, :50–:60) to capture ICT-relevant periods like hourly transitions.
• AM/PM session first FVGs (if enabled), focusing on 9:30–10:00 AM or 1:30–2:00 PM EST for key market opens.
An optional ATR filter (default: 0.25× ATR) ensures only gaps larger than the threshold are displayed, prioritizing significant imbalances.
Mitigation and Inversion
When price closes through an FVG (e.g., below a bullish FVG’s bottom), the FVG is mitigated and becomes an iFVG, plotted as a support/resistance zone. iFVGs are critical in ICT for identifying reversal points where institutional orders accumulate.
Retest Signals
The script generates signals when price retests an iFVG:
• Close: Triggers when the candle body confirms the retest (conservative, lower noise).
• Wick: Triggers when the candle’s high/low touches the iFVG (faster, higher sensitivity). Signals are visualized with triangular markers (▲ for bullish, ▼ for bearish) and can trigger alerts.
Visualization
• FVGs: Displayed as colored boxes (green for bullish, red for bearish) with optional “Bull FVG”/“Bear FVG” labels.
• iFVGs: Shown as extended boxes with dashed midlines, limited to the user-defined number of recent zones (default: 5).
• Mitigation Removal: Mitigated FVGs/iFVGs are removed (if enabled) to keep the chart clean.
How to Use
Recommended Settings
• Timeframe: Use 1–5 minute charts for precision, avoiding ≥1-hour timeframes (a warning label appears if misconfigured).
• Time Windows: Enable :00–:10 and :50–:60 for hourly open/close FVGs, or use the “Show only 1st presented FVG” option for AM/PM session focus.
• ATR Filter: Keep enabled (multiplier 0.25–0.5) for significant gaps; disable on 1-minute charts for more FVGs during volatility.
• Signal Preference: Use “Close” for conservative entries, “Wick” for aggressive setups.
• Timezone Offset: Set to -5 for EST (or -4 for EDT) to align with ICT’s New York session.
Trading Strategy
1. Macro Timeframes: Focus on New York (7:00–11:00 AM EST) or London (2:00–5:00 AM EST) kill zones for high institutional activity.
2. FVG Entries: Trade bullish FVGs as support in uptrends or bearish FVGs as resistance in downtrends, especially in :00–:10 or :50–:60 windows.
3. iFVG Retests: Enter on retest signals (▲/▼) during liquidity grabs or Judas swings, using “Close” for confirmation or “Wick” for speed.
4. Session FVGs: Use the “Show only 1st presented FVG” option to target the first gap in AM/PM sessions, often tied to ICT’s market maker algorithms.
5. Risk Management: Combine with ICT concepts like order blocks or breaker blocks for confluence, and set stops beyond FVG/iFVG boundaries.
Alerts
Set alerts for:
• “Bullish FVG Detected”/“Bearish FVG Detected”: New FVGs in selected windows.
• “Bullish Signal”/“Bearish Signal”: iFVG retest confirmations.
Settings Description
• Show Last (1–100, default: 5): Number of recent iFVGs to display. Lower values reduce clutter.
• Show only 1st presented FVG : Limits FVGs to the first in 9:30–10:00 AM or 1:30–2:00 PM EST sessions (overrides time window checkboxes).
• Time Window Checkboxes: Enable/disable FVG detection in 10-minute windows (:00–:10, :10–:20, etc.). All enabled by default.
• Signal Preference: “Close” (default) or “Wick” for iFVG retest signals.
• Use ATR Filter: Enables ATR-based size filtering (default: true).
• ATR Multiplier (0–∞, default: 0.25): Sets FVG size threshold (higher values = larger gaps).
• Remove Mitigated FVGs: Removes filled FVGs/iFVGs (default: true).
• Show FVG Labels: Displays “Bull FVG”/“Bear FVG” labels (default: true).
• Timezone Offset (-12 to 12, default: -5): Aligns time windows with EST.
• Colors: Customize bullish (green), bearish (red), and midline (gray) colors.
Why Use This Indicator?
This indicator empowers ICT traders with a tool that goes beyond generic FVG detection, offering precise, time-filtered gaps and inversion tracking aligned with institutional trading principles. By focusing on ICT’s macro timeframes, session-specific imbalances, and customizable signal logic, it provides a clear edge for scalping, swing trading, or reversal setups in high-liquidity markets.
ICT Macro Zone Boxes w/ Individual H/L Tracking v3.1ICT Macro Zones (Grey Box Version
This indicator dynamically highlights key intraday time-based macro sessions using a clean, minimalistic grey box overlay, helping traders align with institutional trading cycles. Inspired by ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts, it tracks real-time highs and lows for each session and optionally extends the zone box after the session ends — making it a precision tool for intraday setups, order flow analysis, and macro-level liquidity sweeps.
### 🔍 **What It Does**
- Plots **six predefined macro sessions** used in Smart Money Concepts:
- AM Macro (09:50–10:10)
- London Close (10:50–11:10)
- Lunch Macro (11:30–13:30)
- PM Macro (14:50–15:10)
- London SB (03:00–04:00)
- PM SB (15:00–16:00)
- Each zone:
- **Tracks high and low dynamically** throughout the session.
- **Draws a consistent grey shaded box** to visualize price boundaries.
- **Displays a label** at the first bar of the session (optional).
- **Optionally extends** the box to the right after the session closes.
### 🧠 **How It Works**
- Uses Pine Script arrays to define each session’s time window, label, and color.
- Detects session entry using `time()` within a New York timezone context.
- High/Low values are updated per bar inside the session window.
- Once a session ends, the box is optionally closed and fixed in place.
- All visual zones use a standardized grey tone for clarity and consistency across charts.
### 🛠️ **Settings**
- **Shade Zone High→Low:** Enable/disable the grey macro box.
- **Extend Box After Session:** Keep the zone visible after it ends.
- **Show Entry Label:** Display a label at the start of each session.
### 🎯 **Why This Script is Unique**
Unlike basic session markers or colored backgrounds, this tool:
- Focuses on **macro moments of liquidity and reversal**, not just open/close times.
- Uses **per-session logic** to individually track price behavior inside key time windows.
- Supports **real-time high/low tracking and clean zone drawing**, ideal for Smart Money and ICT-style strategies.
Perfect — based on your list, here's a **bundle-style description** that not only explains the function of each script but also shows how they **work together** in a Smart Money/ICT workflow. This kind of cross-script explanation is exactly what TradingView wants to see to justify closed-source mashups or interdependent tools.
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📚 ICT SMC Toolkit — Script Integration Guide
This set of advanced Smart Money Concept (SMC) tools is designed for traders who follow ICT-based methodologies, combining liquidity theory, time-based precision, and engineered confluences for high-probability trades. Each indicator is optimized to work both independently and synergistically, forming a comprehensive trading framework.
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First FVG Custom Time Range
**Purpose:**
Plots the **first Fair Value Gap (FVG)** that appears within a defined session (e.g., NY Kill Zone, Custom range). Includes optional retest alerts.
**Best Used With:**
- Use with **ICT Macro Zones (Grey Box Version)** to isolate FVGs during high-probability times like AM Macro or PM SB.
- Combine with **Liquidity Levels** to assess whether FVGs form near swing points or liquidity voids.
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ICT SMC Liquidity Grabs and OB s
**Purpose:**
Detects **liquidity grabs** (stop hunts above/below swing highs/lows) and **bullish/bearish order blocks**. Includes optional Fibonacci OTE levels for sniper entries.
**Best Used With:**
- Use with **ICT Turtle Soup (Reversal)** for confirmation after a liquidity grab.
- Combine with **Macro Zones** to catch order blocks forming inside timed macro windows.
- Match with **Smart Swing Levels** to confirm structure breaks before entry.
ICT SMC Liquidity Levels (Smart Swing Lows)
**Purpose:**
Automatically marks swing highs/lows based on user-defined lookbacks. Tracks whether those levels have been breached or respected.
**Best Used With:**
- Combine with **Turtle Soup** to detect if a swing level was swept, then reversed.
- Use with **Liquidity Grabs** to confirm a grab occurred at a meaningful structural point.
- Align with **Macro Zones** to understand when liquidity events occur within macro session timing.
ICT Turtle Soup (Liquidity Reversal)
**Purpose:**
Implements the classic ICT Turtle Soup model. Looks for swing failure and quick reversals after a liquidity sweep — ideal for catching traps.
Best Used With:
- Confirm with **Liquidity Grabs + OBs** to identify institutional activity at the reversal point.
- Use **Liquidity Levels** to ensure the reversal is happening at valid previous swing highs/lows.
- Amplify probability when pattern appears during **Macro Zones** or near the **First FVG**.
ICT Turtle Soup Ultimate V2
**Purpose:**
An enhanced, multi-layer version of the Turtle Soup setup that includes built-in liquidity checks, OTE levels, structure validation, and customizable visual output.
**Best Used With:**
- Use as an **entry signal generator** when other indicators (e.g., OBs, liquidity grabs) are aligned.
- Pair with **Macro Zones** for high-precision timing.
- Combine with **First FVG** to anticipate price rebalancing before explosive moves.
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## 🧠 Workflow Example:
1. **Start with Macro Zones** to focus only on institutional trading windows.
2. Look for **Liquidity Grabs or Swing Sweeps** around key highs/lows.
3. Check for a **Turtle Soup Reversal** or **Order Block Reaction** near that level.
4. Confirm confluence with a **Fair Value Gap**.
5. Execute using the **OTE level** from the Liquidity Grabs + OB script.
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Let me know which script you want to publish first — I’ll tailor its **individual TradingView description** and flag its ideal **“Best Used With” partners** to help users see the value in your ecosystem.
Overnight ES Strategy: CBC + Fractal + RSI + ATR FilterThis script is designed for overnight trading of the E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) between 6 PM and 11 PM EST.
It combines multiple technical confluences to generate high-probability buy and sell signals, focusing on volatility-rich, low-liquidity evening sessions.
Key Features:
Candle Body Confluence (CBC) Approximation:
Identifies candles with small real bodies compared to total range, simulating consolidation zones where price is likely to reverse.
Williams Fractal Confirmation:
Detects local tops and bottoms based on 5-bar fractal reversal patterns, helping validate breakout or reversal points.
RSI Filter:
Ensures momentum is supportive — buys only when RSI < 35 (oversold) and sells only when RSI > 65 (overbought).
ATR Volatility Filter:
Trades are only allowed if the Average True Range (ATR) exceeds a user-defined threshold, filtering out low-volatility, risky environments.
Time Session Control:
Signals are only generated during the user-defined evening session (default: 6 PM to 11 PM EST) to match market behavior.
Real-Time Alerts Enabled:
Alerts can be set for BUY or SELL conditions, enabling mobile notifications, emails, or pop-ups without constant chart monitoring.
Recommended Settings:
Chart Timeframe: 15-minute or 30-minute candles
Assets: ES Mini (ES1!), NQ Mini, or other CME futures
Session: New York Time (EST)
ATR Threshold: Adjust based on market conditions; 5.0 suggested starting point for ES Mini on 15m.
Important:
This script only plots signals, it does not auto-execute trades.
Always backtest and paper trade before using live capital.
Volatility can vary; consider adjusting RSI and ATR filters based on market environment.
Credits:
Script designed based on confluence of price action, momentum, reversal structure, and volatility filtering principles used by professional traders.
Inspired by Candle Body Confluence (CBC) theory and Williams fractal techniques.
Umesh BC IST 3:30 AM Session Tracker + 4H Candles📌 IST 3:30 AM Session Tracker + 4H Candle Marker
This indicator is designed for traders who follow Indian Standard Time (IST) and want precise session tracking and 4H candle insights.
🔧 Features:
🕒 Daily Session Start at 3:30 AM IST
Automatically detects and marks the beginning of each new trading day based on 3:30 AM IST, not midnight.
Displays session Open, High, and Low lines.
Background shading for each session.
Customizable alert when a new day starts.
🟧 4H Candle Start Markers (IST Time)
Identifies every new 4-hour candle that starts at:
3:30, 7:30, 11:30, 3:30 PM, 7:30 PM, 11:30 PM IST
Adds a vertical line and label ("🟧 4H") above the candle.
Plots a dynamic line for the 4H candle's opening price.
Includes optional alert for new 4H candles.
🔔 Alerts Included:
"🕒 New IST Day Start": Triggers at 3:30 AM IST.
"🟧 New 4H Candle": Triggers at each 4H candle start (IST).
✅ Best for:
Intraday, swing, and institutional traders using IST-based analysis.
Those wanting more accurate daily sessions and clear candle structuring.
SPDR Sectors TableThis script generates an interactive and customizable SPDR Sectors Table designed to monitor and analyze the performance of the 11 main sectors of the S&P 500 via sector-specific ETFs. It offers a dynamic overview of daily or periodic sector movements, making it a valuable tool for traders, analysts, and investors implementing sector rotation strategies.
█ DEFINITIONS
SPDR Sectors ETFs are exchange-traded funds managed by State Street Global Advisors, which divide the S&P 500 into the following 11 sectors:
- Communication Services (XLC)
- Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
- Consumer Staples (XLP)
- Energy (XLE)
- Financials (XLF)
- Health Care (XLV)
- Industrials (XLI)
- Materials (XLB)
- Real Estate (XLRE)
- Technology (XLK)
- Utilities (XLU)
These ETFs aim to replicate the performance of their respective sectors as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The funds are periodically rebalanced to match changes in the S&P 500 composition, offering an accurate snapshot of sectoral trends.
█ INDICATOR
The table displays each sector's ticker and full name, following official GICS terminology and SPDR color coding. It also shows percentage performance, calculated daily on intraday charts or based on the selected time frame.
Users can sort the table by either percentage performance or the relative weight of each ETF in the S&P 500. The default weight values reflect data updated as of 17 April 2025, and can be manually adjusted based on the most recent sector weightings available on the official SPDR website.
Long Term Profitable Swing | AbbasA Story of a Profitable Swing Trading Strategy
Imagine you're sailing across the ocean, looking for the perfect wave to ride. Swing trading is quite similar—you're navigating the stock market, searching for the ideal moments to enter and exit trades. This strategy, created by Abbas, helps you find those waves and ride them effectively to profitable outcomes.
🌊 Finding the Perfect Wave (Entry)
Our journey begins with two simple signs that tell us a great trading opportunity is forming:
- Moving Averages: We use two lines that follow price trends—the faster one (EMA 16) reacts quickly to recent price moves, and the slower one (EMA 30) gives us a longer-term perspective. When the faster line crosses above the slower line, it's like a clear signal saying, "Hey! The wave is rising, and prices might move higher!"
- RSI Momentum: Next, we check a tool called the RSI, which measures momentum (how strongly prices are moving). If the RSI number is above 50, it means there's enough strength behind this rising wave to carry us forward.
When both signals appear together, that's our green light. It's time to jump on our surfboard and start riding this promising wave.
⚓ Safely Riding the Wave (Risk Management)
While we're riding this wave, we want to ensure we're safe from sudden surprises. To do this, we use something called the Average True Range (ATR), which measures how volatile (or bumpy) the price movements are:
- Stop-Loss: To avoid falling too hard, we set a safety line (stop-loss) 8 times the ATR below our entry price. This helps ensure we exit if the wave suddenly turns against us, protecting us from heavy losses.
- Take Profit: We also set a goal to exit the trade at 11 times the ATR above our entry. This way, we capture significant profits when the wave reaches a nice high point.
🌟 Multiple Rides, Bigger Adventures
This strategy allows us to take multiple positions simultaneously—like riding several waves at once, up to 5. Each trade we make uses only 10% of our trading capital, keeping risks manageable and giving us multiple opportunities to win big.
🗺️ Easy to Follow Settings
Here are the basic settings we use:
- Fast EMA**: 16
- Slow EMA**: 30
- RSI Length**: 9
- RSI Threshold**: 50
- ATR Length**: 21
- ATR Stop-Loss Multiplier**: 8
- ATR Take-Profit Multiplier**: 11
These settings are flexible—you can adjust them to better suit different markets or your personal trading style.
🎉 Riding the Waves of Success
This simple yet powerful swing trading approach helps you confidently enter trades, clearly know when to exit, and effectively manage your risk. It’s a reliable way to ride market waves, capture profits, and minimize losses.
Happy trading, and may you find many profitable waves to ride! 🌊✨
Please test, and take into account that it depends on taking multiple longs within the swing, and you only get to invest 25/30% of your equity.
Silver Bullet SessionsThe Silver Bullet Sessions indicator is a specialized timing tool designed to highlight key market sessions throughout the trading day. By marking specific hours with vertical lines, it helps traders identify potentially significant market moments that often coincide with increased volatility and trading opportunities.
This indicator plots vertical lines at six strategic times during the trading day: 3:00 AM, 4:00 AM, 10:00 AM, 11:00 AM, 2:00 PM, and 3:00 PM. These times are carefully selected to correspond with important market events and session overlaps in the global trading cycle. The early morning hours (3-4 AM) often capture significant Asian market movements and the European market opening. The mid-morning period (10-11 AM) typically corresponds with peak European trading hours and the pre-US market dynamics. The afternoon times (2-3 PM) coincide with key US market activities and the European market close.
The indicator is implemented using Pine Script version 6, ensuring compatibility with the latest TradingView platform features. It employs a clean, efficient coding structure that minimizes resource usage while maintaining reliable performance. The vertical lines are rendered in blue for clear visibility against any chart background, and their width is optimized for easy identification without obscuring price action.
Traders can use these visual markers to:
Plan their entries and exits around these key time periods
Anticipate potential market volatility
Structure their trading sessions around these significant market hours
Identify session-based trading patterns
