AAPL Short-Term Bearish Play – ATM Put into $200 Magnet Zone

🍎 AAPL Short-Term Bearish Play – ATM Put into $200 Magnet Zone
🗓️ Date: June 6, 2025
⏳ Timeframe: 0DTE (intraday to EOD swing)
📉 Setup: Breakdown continuation with weak bounce potential
🔍 Model Summary Breakdown
Model Bias Strike Entry Target Stop Confidence
Grok 🔻 Bearish $200 put 0.83 1.25 0.60 68%
Claude 🔻 Bearish $200 put 0.83 1.25/1.66 0.50 68%
Llama 🔻 Bearish $200 put 0.83 1.25 $202.50↑ 65%
Gemini 🔻 Bearish $197.50 put 0.36 0.60/0.72 0.18 65%
DeepSeek 🔻 Bearish $200 put 0.83 1.25 0.42 70%

✅ Consensus Bias: Moderately Bearish
📊 Strike Favorite: $200 Put (high OI, max pain magnet)
⚖️ Sentiment Factors:

VIX stable

Heavy OI at $200 (puts > calls)

AAPL trading below all intraday EMAs

🧭 Technical Snapshot
Short-Term (5m / 15m): Price below 10/20-EMAs, bearish MACD

Daily: Momentum weakening, but not full reversal yet

Support/Resistance: $200 max pain zone = gravitational level

News Flow: Neutral — no major catalysts yet

✅ Recommended Trade Setup
Metric Value
Instrument AAPL
Direction PUT (Short)
Strike $200.00
Expiry 2025-06-06
Entry Price $0.83 (ask)
Profit Target $1.25 (≈50%)
Stop-Loss $0.60 (≈30%)
Position Size 1 contract
Confidence 68%
Entry Timing Market open

🎯 Rationale
📉 All models agree on bearish technicals across multiple timeframes

🧲 Max pain + heavy $200 OI acts as a price magnet into close

🔄 Risk/reward favors quick downside move if $200 breaks cleanly

⚠️ Risks to Monitor
⏳ Theta decay — 0DTE option requires fast movement

🔁 Oversold bounce near $200 support could reject breakdown

📈 Gap-up open above $201.50 would invalidate trade thesis

🔔 Low-vol environment may compress intraday moves