Looking at the AUD/USD daily chart, there are three channels we can identify: horizontal, bearish, and bullish. Fascinating is we can conclude three fundamental circumstances moving forward for the Australian economy and by extension the Aussie Dollar:
1. Going nowhere because China's not growing but not collapsing and commodity prices are similarly not going to fall or rise.
2. Bearish because China's monetary base is contracting and as is their economy and the coming GDP collapse will hit Australia very hard.
3. Bullish because of excessive risk in China and the Chinese have the resources to maintain a high enough level of growth supporting the Australian economy. Also, domestic demand for products and services are and important driver to the Aussie economy as well.
All three theories are palatable but for now, I think the bullish one is most in play. Australia managed to beat GDP forecasts earlier this week, and will most likely continue to beat economic forecasts such as unemployment figures scheduled for June 15th. I don't expect any change from the RBA next week in their cash rate and statement. Sentiment and the numbers are with them for now. The rising channel is in favor.
1. Going nowhere because China's not growing but not collapsing and commodity prices are similarly not going to fall or rise.
2. Bearish because China's monetary base is contracting and as is their economy and the coming GDP collapse will hit Australia very hard.
3. Bullish because of excessive risk in China and the Chinese have the resources to maintain a high enough level of growth supporting the Australian economy. Also, domestic demand for products and services are and important driver to the Aussie economy as well.
All three theories are palatable but for now, I think the bullish one is most in play. Australia managed to beat GDP forecasts earlier this week, and will most likely continue to beat economic forecasts such as unemployment figures scheduled for June 15th. I don't expect any change from the RBA next week in their cash rate and statement. Sentiment and the numbers are with them for now. The rising channel is in favor.