03 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis 🐻🐻
BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Banknifty has fallen an impressive 3.18% compared to just 1.89% of Nifty. The major reason for that is
Banknifty always acts as leading indicator in a trend change
NiftyIT and Reliance were supporting Nifty in the last week.
Once the US market started falling due to the Fitch rating downgrade, NiftyIT started correcting which ensured Nifty’s breakdown. Now why BankNifty chart pattern screamed a bearish opportunity before Nifty - I really dont know. The price action of 27th Jul was very strange and unusual.
BankNifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action was in perfect harmony with yesterday’s. The ease with which the chart pattern could be plotted was as simple as going short in today’s expiry. The day started pretty ordinary for OTM options, but after 10.00 the premiums started jumping indicating a market trending opportunity.
The real move came only after 11.30 wherein we dropped 591pts ~ 1.32% till 14.10. Overall we fell 754pts from High to low of which ~80% came after 11.30. There was also a decent recovery of 325pts ~ 0.73% in the last 1hr 20mts.
The final close of just 1.07% ~ 482pts loss is not a deal breaker at all. Basically the market participants are still euphoric and the fear level is absolutely near zero. The VIX falling today even after a 6% surge intraday is proof. For push down of prices - we would need more intense selling on HDFCBK, ICICIBK, SBIN, AXISBANK which has a decent FII exposure and has seen a one-way rally.
The double top pattern from yesterday has now changed into a head and shoulders further reconfirming our short side possibilities. Until proven wrong, we prefer to go short.
Banknifty has fallen an impressive 3.18% compared to just 1.89% of Nifty. The major reason for that is
Banknifty always acts as leading indicator in a trend change
NiftyIT and Reliance were supporting Nifty in the last week.
Once the US market started falling due to the Fitch rating downgrade, NiftyIT started correcting which ensured Nifty’s breakdown. Now why BankNifty chart pattern screamed a bearish opportunity before Nifty - I really dont know. The price action of 27th Jul was very strange and unusual.
BankNifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action was in perfect harmony with yesterday’s. The ease with which the chart pattern could be plotted was as simple as going short in today’s expiry. The day started pretty ordinary for OTM options, but after 10.00 the premiums started jumping indicating a market trending opportunity.
The real move came only after 11.30 wherein we dropped 591pts ~ 1.32% till 14.10. Overall we fell 754pts from High to low of which ~80% came after 11.30. There was also a decent recovery of 325pts ~ 0.73% in the last 1hr 20mts.
The final close of just 1.07% ~ 482pts loss is not a deal breaker at all. Basically the market participants are still euphoric and the fear level is absolutely near zero. The VIX falling today even after a 6% surge intraday is proof. For push down of prices - we would need more intense selling on HDFCBK, ICICIBK, SBIN, AXISBANK which has a decent FII exposure and has seen a one-way rally.
The double top pattern from yesterday has now changed into a head and shoulders further reconfirming our short side possibilities. Until proven wrong, we prefer to go short.
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