Market Cap BTC, $Giá lên
Two Charts to Watch to Time the Crypto Cycle Top
Here I have the TOTAL2 chart overlaying the BTC market cap chart.
- Black: BTC
- White: TOTAL2
- Yellow vertical lines: BTC Halvings
The main alpha here is identifying the moments where TOTAL2 > BTC. This means the rest of crypto is valued greater than that of BTC, people are going further down the risk curve to seek greater returns, and peak euphoria has set in. Crypto markets top after BTC has made its run and once the alts, memes, and more degenerate activities soar following the rise in BTC.
At the bottom I have plotted the relative strength between BTC and TOTAL2 (Black line) which shows that once BTC begins to lose strength to TOTAL2 (a dip below the zero line) then the top is imminent. Currently we are well above the zero line and far from the negatives which indicates to me lots of time/ room left in this cycle for appreciation (if you're in the camp of the bulls).
I have also included a YOY rate of change (white area plot) showing the sharp increases in the ROC at the tops. currently we look very flat yet positive which is very similar to that of late 2016 and early 2017.
There is not much historical data so this could be invalidated easily, but the similarities from the past two 4 year cycles is significant enough to form an idea on when profits should be taken if you so desire.
Here is a chart of BTC-TOTAL2. This chart shows the delta between the two with a clear megaphone thing going on. The alpha here is that once that ratio dumps significantly that indicates the rotation away from BTC and into the more speculative side of the crypto market.
An increasing megaphone trend this chart is showing makes sense due to the natural rise in market cap the entirety of crypto experiences. It's kind of like an average true range of the delta between the two. The swings in the ratio will widen the more the market cap increases.
I wouldn't use these as trading indicators but rather as a guideline for sentiment and when it might be wise to be super risk on or more risk off.
My belief remains that we see a big pump next year with a sustained bull run up until Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026 based on previous cycles in equities and crypto.
- Black: BTC
- White: TOTAL2
- Yellow vertical lines: BTC Halvings
The main alpha here is identifying the moments where TOTAL2 > BTC. This means the rest of crypto is valued greater than that of BTC, people are going further down the risk curve to seek greater returns, and peak euphoria has set in. Crypto markets top after BTC has made its run and once the alts, memes, and more degenerate activities soar following the rise in BTC.
At the bottom I have plotted the relative strength between BTC and TOTAL2 (Black line) which shows that once BTC begins to lose strength to TOTAL2 (a dip below the zero line) then the top is imminent. Currently we are well above the zero line and far from the negatives which indicates to me lots of time/ room left in this cycle for appreciation (if you're in the camp of the bulls).
I have also included a YOY rate of change (white area plot) showing the sharp increases in the ROC at the tops. currently we look very flat yet positive which is very similar to that of late 2016 and early 2017.
There is not much historical data so this could be invalidated easily, but the similarities from the past two 4 year cycles is significant enough to form an idea on when profits should be taken if you so desire.
Here is a chart of BTC-TOTAL2. This chart shows the delta between the two with a clear megaphone thing going on. The alpha here is that once that ratio dumps significantly that indicates the rotation away from BTC and into the more speculative side of the crypto market.
An increasing megaphone trend this chart is showing makes sense due to the natural rise in market cap the entirety of crypto experiences. It's kind of like an average true range of the delta between the two. The swings in the ratio will widen the more the market cap increases.
I wouldn't use these as trading indicators but rather as a guideline for sentiment and when it might be wise to be super risk on or more risk off.
My belief remains that we see a big pump next year with a sustained bull run up until Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026 based on previous cycles in equities and crypto.
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