Bitcoin... Bearish Outlook Still, Educational Analysis Inside.
Again for all the Bulls out there, I applaud you for the optimism but CONFIRMATION is CONFIRMATION. My confirmation of this bearish trend reversal is the Daily Ichimoku cloud break. (Senkou Span B or Lead 2 seen below)
Daily (below) with Ichimoku, 50 & 200 MA.
As can be seen we rest on the Senkou Span A (Lead 1) which has also wicked off of the Base Line in pink. (Kijun-sen)
Volume is less then convincing on the Daily and the more we test this area the more we are likely to break below. There are no Volume divergences showing on the daily and the sell off generally matches on smaller time frames. The only way we pick up into the cloud is if the Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume (See past posts by me for tutorials on how to use them) show a heavy increase matching the prior rallies into the daily Kumo. It is entirely possible but Technical Analysis requires you to use the data in front of you. Watch for a Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume increase on the 4 hour and above to spot a daily increase early.
The 12 Hour below shows a Bearish TK cross on the Ichi that happened around 41 hours ago. The daily 50 & 200 Moving averages crossed Bearish March 30th on the daily. The 12 Hour has crossed back and forth but are beginning to merge closer yet again for a bearish move. However these are extremely lagging in relation to Bitcoin's movement and I expect a drop to transpire before that takes place as usual.
The 6 Hour below shows us a semi formed Bearish continuation pattern, Volume has had a slight uptick but needs more to pull out. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index still have some room to drop.
The 4 Hour below. One thing I have noted personally is we wicked off the 4 Hour Conversion line (Tenkan-sen) in orange when the market became semi overbought. I say overbought because there was no real volume to match the slight rally. (Perfect spot if you were watching to set a short position.)
On the Hourly below everything generally matches as far as divergences go, The Stochastic shows a slight variance but nothing noteworthy. Buy pressure is picking up on the Chaikin Money Flow so I do see it entirely possible that we touch the top of our triangle which sets up a entry for a short.
Conclusion
I base my entries and trends off of confirmation, many traders take one indicator and use that as their confirmation, my ultimate confirmation as mentioned above is the daily Senkou Span B or Lead 2 break. From there we have very little stopping us.
BTCUSD
I am looking for a break down from our current price of $8,270 to $8,150 and then down to stronger support at $8,000. We sit right at a key level that needs to hold, once those targets are reached I will reassess my current positions and see if there are any short term Bullish movements. Until then I remain Bearish and if we break down below above mentioned support then I expect a retest of $6,500 fairly quick.
Since I have been riding this position for a bit my take profit is set at the top of the triangle at $8375 in case we break bullish. ALWAYS USE STOPS AND TAKE PROFIT ORDERS.
Slap a like and follow on this for me even if you don't agree. :)
Daily (below) with Ichimoku, 50 & 200 MA.
As can be seen we rest on the Senkou Span A (Lead 1) which has also wicked off of the Base Line in pink. (Kijun-sen)
Volume is less then convincing on the Daily and the more we test this area the more we are likely to break below. There are no Volume divergences showing on the daily and the sell off generally matches on smaller time frames. The only way we pick up into the cloud is if the Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume (See past posts by me for tutorials on how to use them) show a heavy increase matching the prior rallies into the daily Kumo. It is entirely possible but Technical Analysis requires you to use the data in front of you. Watch for a Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume increase on the 4 hour and above to spot a daily increase early.
The 12 Hour below shows a Bearish TK cross on the Ichi that happened around 41 hours ago. The daily 50 & 200 Moving averages crossed Bearish March 30th on the daily. The 12 Hour has crossed back and forth but are beginning to merge closer yet again for a bearish move. However these are extremely lagging in relation to Bitcoin's movement and I expect a drop to transpire before that takes place as usual.
The 6 Hour below shows us a semi formed Bearish continuation pattern, Volume has had a slight uptick but needs more to pull out. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index still have some room to drop.
The 4 Hour below. One thing I have noted personally is we wicked off the 4 Hour Conversion line (Tenkan-sen) in orange when the market became semi overbought. I say overbought because there was no real volume to match the slight rally. (Perfect spot if you were watching to set a short position.)
On the Hourly below everything generally matches as far as divergences go, The Stochastic shows a slight variance but nothing noteworthy. Buy pressure is picking up on the Chaikin Money Flow so I do see it entirely possible that we touch the top of our triangle which sets up a entry for a short.
Conclusion
I base my entries and trends off of confirmation, many traders take one indicator and use that as their confirmation, my ultimate confirmation as mentioned above is the daily Senkou Span B or Lead 2 break. From there we have very little stopping us.
BTCUSD
I am looking for a break down from our current price of $8,270 to $8,150 and then down to stronger support at $8,000. We sit right at a key level that needs to hold, once those targets are reached I will reassess my current positions and see if there are any short term Bullish movements. Until then I remain Bearish and if we break down below above mentioned support then I expect a retest of $6,500 fairly quick.
Since I have been riding this position for a bit my take profit is set at the top of the triangle at $8375 in case we break bullish. ALWAYS USE STOPS AND TAKE PROFIT ORDERS.
Slap a like and follow on this for me even if you don't agree. :)
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The entire trade played perfectly. I will update with a new analysis.
All posts are for educational purposes and are simply my views of markets conditions.
Please do your own research and use my content to educate yourself.
Please do your own research and use my content to educate yourself.
