Peaceful US and GDP data & Bitcoin is blowing a bubble

27 thg 6, 2019

Yesterday, a fairly clear signal from the United States was received by markets and China. The USA is interested in a peaceful outcome. The information that the United States has decided to postpone the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese goods (over $ 300 billion). Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said: ‘We were about 90% of the way’ on China trade deal and there’s a ‘path to complete this’. American companies found a way to circumvent the ‘Huawei’ ban.

Recall, we have advised selling gold at USD 1430-1435. So those ones who followed our recommendations would have earned good money.
The correlation between cryptocurrency prices reached 21% (!). We believe that there is nothing behind such growth and another price bubble will burst soon. Once again, we note that there is no logic in growth. A surge of optimism among buyers after Facebook “Libra” was announced is actually an odd thing. If Facebook had announced that Bitcoin is its reference currency, then yes, it would be possible to understand the current growth and even consider it reasonable. But we are talking about the emergence of a superpowerful competitor to Bitcoin, which will get the lion's share of the market and buying Bitcoin on this background is illogical at least. So we continue to recommend sales of key cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin primarily.

As for the macroeconomic statistics published yesterday, orders for durable goods in the United States were frankly failed (-1.3% with a forecast of -0.3%), and the trade balance also turned out to be much worse than experts' expectations ($ 75.5 billion against forecasts - $ 71.8 billion). Nevertheless, the dollar felt quite confident in the foreign exchange market.

However, today the situation might change. US WPF data might be unpleasantly surprised, and then the dollar simply will have no options than to decline.

Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis and the medium terms. As for gold, today we, perhaps, will work without obvious preferences, buying and selling gold on the intraday basis in its oversold / overbought levels.