Fed Balance Sheet Up, Fed Funds Down, Powell to be Replaced

correlations drawn using ancient chinese calendar methods

takeaway predictions:

federal reserve balance sheet to increase, fed funds rate to decrease, and fed chair powell to be replaced, all starting before the end of feb 2025

supporting data and patterns:

every fed reserve chair has started AND ended their term in either an ally year, a secret friend year (powell), or within 2 weeks of a ally year (yellen)

federal reserve balance sheet has gone up during all ally years since the record began in 2003 (orange line)

the fed funds rate (gray line) is always highly volatile during a chairman's oppositional year

federal reserve balance sheet remains neutral to down in oppositional years

there is not a direct correlation between a falling funds rate and the calendar method, but there is a strong correlation between an increasing balance sheet and a lowering of the fed funds rate. though the correlation between the falling funds rate and the calendar method is secondary, it still may be useful