GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
UK: Labor data to keep Bank of England expectations hawkish
The Bank of England has made it clear that the decision on June rate hike will be underpinned by the two sets of wage and inflation data out before the next meeting. The first of these unemployment and wage numbers will be out on Tuesday, with consensus expectations not suggesting any let up in concerns yet. Expectations are for the unemployment rate in the three months to March to hold steady at 3.8%, employment change to remain at 160k from 169k and headline earnings growth to also remain steady at 5.8% from 5.9%, whilst the ex-bonus metric is seen firming up to 6.8% from 6.6%. Firmer data could bring the expectation for a June rate hike from Bank of England higher from a 69% probability for now and bring the focus also on next CPI release on May 24. EURGBP remains on the verge of a breakout on the downside after trading in a range since the start of the year.
The Bank of England has made it clear that the decision on June rate hike will be underpinned by the two sets of wage and inflation data out before the next meeting. The first of these unemployment and wage numbers will be out on Tuesday, with consensus expectations not suggesting any let up in concerns yet. Expectations are for the unemployment rate in the three months to March to hold steady at 3.8%, employment change to remain at 160k from 169k and headline earnings growth to also remain steady at 5.8% from 5.9%, whilst the ex-bonus metric is seen firming up to 6.8% from 6.6%. Firmer data could bring the expectation for a June rate hike from Bank of England higher from a 69% probability for now and bring the focus also on next CPI release on May 24. EURGBP remains on the verge of a breakout on the downside after trading in a range since the start of the year.
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