Nifty Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 23rd September

Based on the charts and market data from Monday, September 22, the Nifty has experienced a significant correction, breaking below a key support level. The market sentiment has shifted from strongly bullish to cautiously bearish in the short term.

Detailed Market Structure Breakdown

4 Hour Chart (Macro Trend)

Structure: The long-term trend remains bullish, as the index is still trading above its August lows. However, Monday's strong bearish candle, which broke below the rising channel, indicates a significant shift in the immediate trend. The bulls' control has been challenged, and a deeper correction is now more probable.

Key Levels:

Major Supply (Resistance): 25,500-25,600. This level has proven to be a very strong supply zone, rejecting the price on multiple occasions.

Major Demand (Support): The most critical support is the 25,050-25,100 zone. This area, which includes a prior breakout level and a FVG (Fair Value Gap), is now the key "line in the sand" for the long-term bullish trend. A break below this would signal a major trend reversal.

1-Hour Chart (Intermediate View)

Structure: The 1H chart shows a clear MSS (Market Structure Shift) to the downside. The price has broken below the lower trendline of the rising channel and its immediate support, confirming the short-term bearish bias. The index is now making lower highs and lower lows.

Key Levels:

Immediate Resistance: The 25,300 level, which was a strong support, has now become a crucial resistance. Any bounce is likely to be met with selling pressure in this zone.

Immediate Support: The next key support level is the 25,200 mark. This is a psychological level that was tested and broken on Monday. A retest of this level is likely.

15-Minute Chart (Intraday View)

Structure: The 15M chart provides a clearer picture of the intraday fall. The price is showing a small consolidation after the sharp decline. This is likely a pause before the next move.

Key Levels:

Intraday Supply: The 25,250 area, which is the high of the recent consolidation.

Intraday Demand: The low of the recent consolidation and the intraday low, near 25,200.

Outlook: The intraday bias is bearish. The market is likely to continue its downward movement unless it can reclaim the 25,300 resistance level.

Trade Plan: 23rd September

Market Outlook: The market is now in a short-term bearish phase. A "sell on rise" strategy seems more favorable, but a strong reversal from a key support level is also a possibility.

Bearish Scenario (Primary Plan)

Justification: The market has shown a clear change in structure with a breakdown of key levels. The path of least resistance is to the downside.

Entry: Look for a short entry if the price retests the 25,300 level and shows signs of rejection with a bearish candlestick pattern. Alternatively, a breakdown and 15-minute close below 25,200 would trigger a short entry.

Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss above 25,350.

Targets:

T1: 25,100 (Next major support).

T2: 25,050 (Psychological level and strong demand zone).

Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend Plan)

Justification: This is a counter-trend plan and should be approached with caution. It is based on the possibility of a strong bounce from a key support level.

Trigger: A strong bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer or engulfing pattern) near the 25,100 - 25,050 demand zone.

Entry: Long entry on a confirmed bounce from the demand zone.

Stop Loss (SL): Below 25,000.

Targets:

T1: 25,250 (Intraday resistance).

T2: 25,400 (Recent swing high).

Key Levels for Observation:

Immediate Decision Point: The 25,200 - 25,300 zone.

Bearish Confirmation: A break and sustained move below 25,200.

Bullish Confirmation: A recapture of the 25,300 level.

Line in the Sand: The 25,050 - 25,100 zone. The overall bullish trend is in jeopardy if this level is decisively broken.