Disengage from the herd, Markets are not Rational places!

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“The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposition position. I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis. It does not follow that one should always go against the prevailing trend. On the contrary, most of the time the trend prevails; only occasionally are the errors corrected. It is only on those occasions that one should go against the trend. This line of reasoning leads me to look for the flaw in every investment thesis. ... I am ahead of the curve. I watch out for telltale signs that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it. Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at an inflection point are we rewarded.”
― George Soros, Soros on Soros: Staying Ahead of the Curve

Most people ask themselves why NVDA should lose 15% of its market cap on the news about a Chinese company that claims to have outperformed ChatGPT by spending 5.5 million USD on training their models.
I do not care about if the claim is true or not, because I am confident ChatGPT was very hyped, and today the bubble burst.
No matter how much everyone in the AI industry and GPU makers trying we will not gain back the trust of people who see their capital melting in front of their eyes!

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Ghi chú