NZDJPY is now showing a reversal pattern in the form of a bullish divergence on both MACD and RSI. On pure technicals, a long position makes sense. We're also in an area of support.
What could be a downside risk are fundamentals. Uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the inflation and central bank rising interest rates (which have resulted in a broad crash across the stock market and stronger risk-off currencies). Nevertheless, JPY is probably becoming the weakest risk-off currency due to a very dovish BOJ, in line with the very low inflation in the country, despite a very inflationary international context.
What could be a downside risk are fundamentals. Uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the inflation and central bank rising interest rates (which have resulted in a broad crash across the stock market and stronger risk-off currencies). Nevertheless, JPY is probably becoming the weakest risk-off currency due to a very dovish BOJ, in line with the very low inflation in the country, despite a very inflationary international context.