Tuesday 29 July: Forex Market thoughts

The EUR has begun the week under pressure following the US / EUR trade deal.

EUR weakness could be out down to what they call 'sell the fact', meaning buy last week's deal rumours / sell (take profit) on the announcement. Or, more likely, it could be because it appears the US has the better side of the deal. Either way, all of lat week's EUR positivity has dissipated.

I didn't get involved in a EUR short trade yesterday, but there is a case to say it was viable.

The USD and JPY begin the week on the front foot. Possibly benefitting from 'EUR liquidity', or possibly due to 'positioning' ahead of this week's FOMC and BOJ meetings.

As things stand, with the VIX below 15 and the S&P still riding high, I maintain my view that according to market fundamentals, 'risk on' trades 'should' be viable. Which means staying patient and waiting for a turnaround, particularly on the JPY charts.

If that turnaround doesn't come, I could be forced to change my view.