SunshineTrader

Long Term SPY Outlook

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AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
When SPY Makes moves around Fibonacci ratios that line up with historical pivots points we always see some big action. Notice the circled area on the chart above. You will see that old resistance became new support for the past 10 years of the Bull market especially at the .382 Fib. Upon SPYs current cycle it appears we have completed this historical consolidation continuation pattern and double topped here in the short term. The last bounce off the .236 Fib from Decembers low is overextended and also shows exhaustion. I am expecting a healthy pullback in the short term but we need to stay keen with current news conditions and the feds trying to stimulate the economy to promote more buying. Could be a "Melt up" scenario where we see a fake correction and then a huge new run past all time highs to create more greed . Then right when everything seems perfect it will take the huge correction that is being expected which would also correlate directly with the recession being 12-18 months away.

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