Forms a wide-range monthly bar in June, signals more volatility

7/4/16
SPY @ 209.92 - neutral – Forms a wide-range monthly bar in June, signals more volatility beneath key resistance

SPY staged a sharp reversal last week, rebounding from the 198.65 low (June 27, 2016) to reach 210.49 (July 1, 2016 daily high). As a result, the move formed a 6% wide-range bar for the month of June, signaling more volatility beneath the key resistance zone (2.5-year range resistance near 212.15 (June 6, 2016 YTD peak)). While the tough 213.78/212.52 2.5-year range resistance area continues to cap, it is possible to see further consolidation within the range towards 203.23 (June 28, 2016 high, gap low) than 198.65.
Only a decisive break through the 213.78/212.52 zone would complete the 2.5-year range consolidation and turn bullish on the market for new highs.

Outlook:
Intraday: neutral
Daily: neutral
Weekly: neutral
Monthly: neutral