SPY at a Critical Pivot — (Oct. 24 Outlook)

4 ngày trước

Watching $672–$674 for Breakout or Rejection ⚖️

1. Market Structure (1H & 15M)
SPY has recovered sharply from last week’s sell-off and is now pressing into a major resistance zone between $672 and $674, where previous liquidity sweeps and BOS (Break of Structure) levels reside. On the 1-hour chart, a clear CHoCH (Change of Character) marks the transition from a bearish to a bullish regime after the rebound from $658.
The structure remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows, but price is now testing the upper trendline of an ascending wedge pattern. A rejection from this zone could trigger a short-term pullback, while a clean breakout and close above $674 could open the path to retest the $680–$682 liquidity pocket.
The 15-minute chart shows the same wedge in more detail. After a small CHoCH near $671, price is stabilizing at the mid-channel. Buyers are absorbing dips, but momentum is flattening — a sign of equilibrium before a potential breakout move during Friday’s session.

2. Supply and Demand / Order Blocks
* Demand Zone: $666–$669 — where previous BOS confirmed buyer defense. This zone overlaps with the 9 EMA cluster and FVG (Fair Value Gap), making it the main reload area for bulls.
* Support Zone: $662–$665 — HVL (High-Volume Level) + PUT wall confluence from the GEX map.
* Supply Zone: $672–$676 — heavy liquidity cluster and previous rejection zone. A break above this level will likely induce dealer hedging and short covering toward $680+.
If SPY reclaims and holds above $674, the structure fully shifts bullish into next week. Conversely, rejection near this area followed by a break below $670 could pull price back toward $665 support before the next rebound attempt.

3. Indicator Confluence
* 9 EMA / 21 EMA: On both 1H and 15M charts, EMAs are still in bullish alignment, but the slope is flattening near resistance — signaling consolidation. If 9EMA crosses back above price with volume pickup, expect continuation higher.
* MACD: On the 1-hour, MACD shows strong recovery momentum, but histogram bars are starting to compress. On the 15-minute, MACD is slightly red, reflecting short-term cooling after an extended push.
* RSI: The 1H RSI sits around 86, nearing overbought territory, suggesting limited room before a short-term cooldown. The 15M RSI has already begun resetting near 53, implying a possible consolidation phase before another push.
* Volume: Volume is tapering as price grinds upward — typical of a rising wedge and often seen before a breakout test or controlled retrace.

4. GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Sentiment

The GEX landscape highlights a tight range between $665 (HVL + PUT wall) and $675 (highest positive gamma / CALL resistance). The CALL walls at $672–$675 align perfectly with the technical supply zone.
* Above $674: Dealer hedging could shift bullish, propelling SPY to $680–$682 as gamma flips positive.
* Below $665: Gamma turns negative, opening the door to volatility spikes down to $658.
IVR is 0.5 and IVX avg 15.6 (-4.24%), showing extreme volatility compression — this often precedes an impulsive move. The options flow leans heavily bearish at 85.9% puts, suggesting traders are defensively positioned, which can fuel a short squeeze if SPY breaks above $674.

5. Trade Scenarios for Friday, Oct. 24
Bullish Setup 🟩
* Entry Zone: $670–$671 retest or breakout above $674
* Targets: $676 → $680 → $682
* Stop-Loss: Below $667.5
* Confirmation: Hold above 9EMA on 15M, MACD histogram green, RSI > 60
Bearish Setup 🟥
* Entry Zone: $672–$674 rejection area
* Targets: $669 → $665 → $662
* Stop-Loss: Above $675
* Confirmation: MACD crossdown + CHoCH below $669

6. Closing Outlook for Oct. 24 (Friday)
Friday is shaping up to be a decisive session for SPY — the index ETF is testing a critical gamma and structural resistance zone at $672–$674. The next move from here will likely set the tone heading into next week’s earnings-heavy calendar.

If bulls can push through $674 with conviction, expect a gamma squeeze into $680+ as dealer flows flip long. But if the wedge structure holds and volume weakens, a healthy pullback to $665 support may occur before buyers reload.

The key lies in whether SPY can sustain above $670 during the early Friday session — holding that level keeps control in buyers’ hands.

💬 Final Thought:
“SPY is walking the fine line — trapped between $665 support and $674 resistance. Whichever side breaks first will likely dictate the next 10 points of movement. Stay patient — this is a volatility coil ready to spring.”

This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.

3 ngày trước

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

update (1-min chart) for scalping:
The ascending channel remains intact, but price just rejected near mid-channel and is now testing the 677.50 structure level again — which aligns with the recent BOS (Break of Structure). If this zone holds, SPY could attempt another bounce toward 678.40–678.60 where short-term supply sits. A clean break below 677.48 could confirm continuation to the 676.00 liquidity pocket.

Momentum:
MACD histogram is still in the red but showing early signs of slowing bearish momentum. Stochastic is curling up from the oversold zone, suggesting a potential short-term relief push if buyers defend 677.

Outlook:
* Bullish case: Hold 677.4–677.5 and reclaim 678.2 for a potential retest toward upper channel 678.8+.
* Bearish case: Lose 677.4 structure → next magnet sits at 676.0–675.9 where previous demand and volume imbalance exist.

🧭 For now, the structure leans neutral–bearish unless SPY reclaims above 678.4 with strong volume.