SPY Direction: Short-term Bounce, Mid-term Risk of Lower High

🟣 Weekly Candle
The weekly chart shows:
* A clear rejection near the upper trendline of the long-term channel
* Last week printed a bearish continuation candle (long upper wick, body closing lower)
* Momentum slowing after a strong rally
* Room below toward 612 – 613 zone, previous weekly demand
✅ Weekly bias: Pullback / corrective move
❗ Not a full trend reversal yet—still inside the big uptrend channel

🔵 Daily Chart

Daily price action confirms the weekly idea:
* Multiple CHoCH and BOS to the downside
* Price broke below the daily trend channel, then retested the underside
* Daily candle shows rejection from supply, not strength
* Demand below at:
* 660
* 652
* 612 major
The daily chart supports the idea that:
👉 SPY may form a lower high on the daily timeframe
👉 Bears have regained short-term control unless 680+ breaks cleanly
✅ Daily bias: Bearish toward 660–652 zone

🟠 1-Hour Chart

1H gives the timing:
* Recent rally stalled right at 1H supply + trendline retest
* CHoCH inside the supply area
* Weak volume on the push up
* EMA structure still bearish to neutral
* Multiple BOS down earlier in the move
This tells us:
👉 Buyers are reacting, not leading
👉 Sellers defending 669–672 zone aggressively
✅ 1H bias: Pullback into 660–655, possibly lower

🟢 GEX (Options Positioning)

This is the most important confirmation:
* Highest positive GEX / call resistance sits around 669–672
* Gamma flips negative below 660
* Huge put positioning below:
165 area is extreme, but near-term:
-65% put support zone begins around 655–650
GEX tells us:
👉 Market makers have incentive to pin SPY below 670
👉 If 660 breaks, dealers’ hedging flows can push price quickly toward 655–650
✅ GEX bias: Downside pressure unless 672 breaks

✅ Confluence Summary (Strongest Part)
All four charts point in the same direction:
Weekly: Rejection from top trendline → pullback likely
Daily: Lower high + CHoCH + supply rejection → bearish continuation
1H: Sellers defending supply → short-term weakness
GEX: Dealer positioning supports a move
669–672 resistance
660–655 magnet

🎯 Direction Call Based on the Charts
Most likely scenario:
➡️ SPY drifts lower into 660–655
If 655 fails:
➡️ Next downside target becomes 652
Then potential extended move to 612 if sentiment deteriorates
Bullish invalidation:
✅ Break and hold above 672
Would flip structure bullish again and target 689

⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your own risk and do your own research.