Alt market more Bullish than Bitcoin, Part 4

4 thg 4, 2019

Here we can see, how a certain pattern which normally says the market will drop, but when looking more closely is telling you there is a hidden agenda. Part 1 of this analysis i talked about that bearish wedge (orange circle) in my BTC' analysis, showing it is likely to be a fake one. Showed a few more signs in favor of a bullish outcome the past weeks. A serious trader knows one has to look at all the factors and than make a decision based on those things. One can never be sure of anything when trading, but you can have the odds on your side to increase your chances.

Like when watching Barcelona against Real Madrid two years ago. During the first 45 min, Real has 8 yellow cards while Barca has only 2 and the game/players is /are extremely aggressive. Barca is playing at home (see it as the up trend, the green line). It's still 0-0, where Real had a few chances for a goal but they all failed so far. With the orange wedge which failed. With a break of that flag and green line, which failed. Each time after the failed attempts Barca was taking over control of the match again. Where the green zone is the Goal of Barca and the red zone is the Goal of Real. Making a bet upfront of the match is difficult, nobody knows in which shape Messi is or Ronaldo (the whales). But during the match, it becomes easier to judge but still anything can happen of course during a match, we all know that. But when knowing all of this, on who would you place your bet when the second half of the match starts?

This is how i do my TA and trading. Try to find all the signs and then from experience i know which signs have more value than others. Then when i feel one side is in favor, i go long or short. When i see the match is at neutral ground (like the Champions League final) and i see neither side is in favor, i just shut down the computer and go do something else (or look at other markets).
But now, this is not all. Like when you do TA on the charts, you have to do TA on yourself as well. You need to find patterns about yourself as well. Patterns where you succeed and where you fail. When you recognize those as well, you can increase your chances even more. All of this takes a very long time and will never end actually. One can never be 100% perfect, so you always need to improve your game.

Back to TA:

On the right we can see 3 options. The triangle is for me the most realistic version. The rally was too strong for a bearish H&S to happen, very unlikely to happen this fast. The failed H&S version is also not likely, because that dump alts had yesterday was too big IMO'. The one Bitcoin had was normal'.

So without making any difficult predictions, ideally we continue to drop slowly the coming day or 2 (or longer) and then continue this uptrend again. On the left we can see it already pushed through the long term resistance (can compare it to the 6000 of BTC'). Not strange to see rejection at first. But instead of seeing FOMO, would be better to see the blue line play out, making a big right shoulder, making a higher low before making another attack on that big resistance. Like Barca has won the first match and with the right shoulder the will prepare for the return match. And yes, i like Barca more than Real :)



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