BTCUSD vs US01Y
US10Y has been crazy lately. It has broken an all time down-trend channel and was moving just like we would like BTC to move. But anyways... Why does this affect the market ?
When confidence is high, 10-year bond prices fall and yields climb. This is because investors believe they can find higher-yielding investments elsewhere and do not believe they need to be conservative.
In other terms - if risk assets bad, us10y good and vice-versa. As we can tell by the chart - investors have been running away to US Government backed Treasury bond to save themselves from the drops. But what now, when we're reaching high levels?
At first US10Y was driving up together with the rest of the markets - since covid's '20 crash we experienced a massive bounce (or pump) on all assets. This positive correlation has lasted until breaking the descending resistance on US10Y - since then the correlation was only negative for crypto and it is there, where risk-assets investors started saving their funds into bonds.
Right now US10Y is approaching a really big confluence of resistance: ascending triangle target, long time resistance level and top of curvy channel. Crossing this is almost impossible, specially if last weeks were growing evenly week by week creating a stair-like growth . And those like to drop heavily afterwards... + we're at resistance (reminder).
If US10Y bounces down now, it would mean BTC 17k was a local bottom (not long term, just for now!) and could make up all the fall it had until now as investors would re-enter risk-on assets
Where would BTC bounce to ? 38k-40k if euphoria doesn't drive it further. It was since then when BTC started falling down without retesting broken levels.
Hope this helped you understand markets a little bit more today. If there's nothing new to you here - you are an MVP.
Cheers!
PS: Too early to judge, but if the price bounces to those levels - it would create a cup/handle pattern.
All is in FED's hands now.
When confidence is high, 10-year bond prices fall and yields climb. This is because investors believe they can find higher-yielding investments elsewhere and do not believe they need to be conservative.
In other terms - if risk assets bad, us10y good and vice-versa. As we can tell by the chart - investors have been running away to US Government backed Treasury bond to save themselves from the drops. But what now, when we're reaching high levels?
At first US10Y was driving up together with the rest of the markets - since covid's '20 crash we experienced a massive bounce (or pump) on all assets. This positive correlation has lasted until breaking the descending resistance on US10Y - since then the correlation was only negative for crypto and it is there, where risk-assets investors started saving their funds into bonds.
Right now US10Y is approaching a really big confluence of resistance: ascending triangle target, long time resistance level and top of curvy channel. Crossing this is almost impossible, specially if last weeks were growing evenly week by week creating a stair-like growth . And those like to drop heavily afterwards... + we're at resistance (reminder).
If US10Y bounces down now, it would mean BTC 17k was a local bottom (not long term, just for now!) and could make up all the fall it had until now as investors would re-enter risk-on assets
Where would BTC bounce to ? 38k-40k if euphoria doesn't drive it further. It was since then when BTC started falling down without retesting broken levels.
Hope this helped you understand markets a little bit more today. If there's nothing new to you here - you are an MVP.
Cheers!
PS: Too early to judge, but if the price bounces to those levels - it would create a cup/handle pattern.
All is in FED's hands now.
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