The 10 year yield will not get to 3%. Since 1987 we have seen this downward trend in treasuries indicated by the channels on the chart.
As of today, the 2 standard deviation peak is at 2.2% and the 3 standard deviation peak is at 2.9%. In one year it will move down to 2.0% and 2.7% respectively. There's also a chance we already peaked and we don't see a 10 year yield over 2% for the foreseeable future.
There has not been a single time since 1985 that we broke out of the 3 standard deviation upper bound. It is safe to say 2.9% is a hard cap on the 10 year without a major meltdown in the US bond market.
Even the 2 std. dev. channel has only been broken twice (and only once significantly) since then. I think this will cause huge bond buying whenever it gets above 2.2% and realistically we won't see over 2.5%.
Eventually we'll start flirting with the 0% bound and the 2 std. dev trend will dip negative sometime in 2030. Until then, enjoy the roaring 20s.
As of today, the 2 standard deviation peak is at 2.2% and the 3 standard deviation peak is at 2.9%. In one year it will move down to 2.0% and 2.7% respectively. There's also a chance we already peaked and we don't see a 10 year yield over 2% for the foreseeable future.
There has not been a single time since 1985 that we broke out of the 3 standard deviation upper bound. It is safe to say 2.9% is a hard cap on the 10 year without a major meltdown in the US bond market.
Even the 2 std. dev. channel has only been broken twice (and only once significantly) since then. I think this will cause huge bond buying whenever it gets above 2.2% and realistically we won't see over 2.5%.
Eventually we'll start flirting with the 0% bound and the 2 std. dev trend will dip negative sometime in 2030. Until then, enjoy the roaring 20s.
