The past may not predict the future, but history does tend to rhyme.
In the past, within 3-8 months of the 10-year/3-month yield curve un-inverting, the world was hit with:
*** 9/11 in 2001
*** The Great Financial Crisis, also known as the subprime mortgage meltdown, in 2008
*** COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020
It's an odd phenomenon that we live in a time when shorter-term maturity vehicles have rewarded investors with more yield than longer-term vehicles. In this case, a 3-month US Treasury Bill commitment had been paying higher interest than a 10-year US Treasury Bond. My completely liquid bank savings account was yielding 5% APY. Why would I lock my funds up for 10 to 30 years when I could be earning more from a savings account with no term?
Without getting into further details, if history continues to rhyme, we might be months away from the next major world event.
In the past, within 3-8 months of the 10-year/3-month yield curve un-inverting, the world was hit with:
*** 9/11 in 2001
*** The Great Financial Crisis, also known as the subprime mortgage meltdown, in 2008
*** COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020
It's an odd phenomenon that we live in a time when shorter-term maturity vehicles have rewarded investors with more yield than longer-term vehicles. In this case, a 3-month US Treasury Bill commitment had been paying higher interest than a 10-year US Treasury Bond. My completely liquid bank savings account was yielding 5% APY. Why would I lock my funds up for 10 to 30 years when I could be earning more from a savings account with no term?
Without getting into further details, if history continues to rhyme, we might be months away from the next major world event.
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Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.