US30 will drop by another 10% in next 4 weeks

📊 My Macro Analysis Breakdown

Covid Crash:
Sharp -25% collapse.
V-shaped recovery, before another -10%

Inflation Explosion (2022):
-21% drop due to Fed rate hikes.
Choppy sideways market after.
Inflation Cooled (Nov-Dec 23):
Big +22% rally when markets priced in rate cuts.

Trump Re-Election (Nov 2024):
Stocks rallied ~8%.

US Tariffs "Lib Day" (April 2025):
Current Phase: Huge initial crash of -10%.

Projection: I am forecasting another -10% to -12% downside toward 32,352 area.

🧠 Why My Prediction Makes Sense:

Markets always overshoot after a major policy shock (tariffs are no small thing — this is bigger than inflation).

• Fed won't act yet (cut rates) until serious economic data deterioration happens.
  
• Global slowdown fears are increasing (China, Europe showing signs too).
  
• Corporate earnings for Q1 2025 are about to be revised down = next catalyst for more selling.
  
• Technical structure resembles past correction patterns (Covid, Inflation explosion).
  

📅 Timing (based on past crashes I charted):
Covid crash: 5-6 weeks.
Inflation crash: 2-3 months.
This one: Likely 4-8 weeks of choppy downside.

⚡ Conclusion:

✅ A prediction of another ~10% drop is totally aligned with both macro fundamentals and technical history.
✅ Expect violent bear market rallies (sharp 2-5% spikes) inside the downtrend — that's normal.
✅ Bias: Sell the rallies, buy safe havens (gold after the dip, bonds).