USOIL - One Way or Another....Bat or Butterfly

1 thg 9, 2016

Im still favouring the Butterfly to 58-59 as its supported by an Elliotwave sequence, Crucial area is the blue line....if price closes below the blue line, Elliotwave sequence is invalidated and bat takes control... expecting an upward move in next few days, possiblty today if 44.50 holds....

1 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

We are right on the line.....should ping up tomorrow after NFP data...4hr RSI is 18 !!!! so oversold end of 3 wave impulse pattern...should at the very least retest 46.50

1 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

We have 2 potential outcomes from here......

Reversal at 43.03....watch price action...wait for a bottom formation.. nest to wait till after NFP data tomorrow 1.30 GMT to see which direction and go with the trend....

or

long at 42.03....completion of a bat pattern.. for TP 44.50...put stop loss a few tics under the x (the higher X on the chart)

2 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

We closed right on the line in the sand at 43.50...so the 5 wave pattern is still valid up to 59.00......

Because of the .618 retracement, Ive re-jigged the wave count...what looked like wave 1 was just a pullback...so we have just seen the retracement of wave 2....this makes sense because

1. usually wave 2 is a 50-61.8 retracement
2. wave 2 and 4 dont usually retrace the same...wave 4 should retrace 38.2 if wave 2 retraced 61.8
3. the waves should be of similar length , with wave 1 shortest....

Its the same result...we get to 59 wiith butterfly but it gives us pivot points to take some profit and add to the trade to minimise risk....

2 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

2 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

REGARDING NFP

The charts are saying the job numbers are going to be weaker than expected, however I will hedge my positions against the worst case scenario.


I will be entering 2 long positions on oil and Gold about 1.25pm GMT and 1 short position as insurance.....

I have 3 short positions open on USDCAD...I will be entering a long position at the same time as insurance.....

If you have a trading account that allows you to take half profit then you do not need multiple positions...(I keep meaning to change mine to one that does)

After 1.30pm there should be fireworks and we end the day with a big green candle !

2 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

Blue line I was just referring to was another blue line at 43.50 support....not the one on here...confusing I know...

2 thg 9, 2016

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

We have just broken out of a channel so I've gone long at 43.73..quite a long stop loss to allow for possible volatility after NFP....

5 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

I closed my long from 46.20 with a small profit....

My other long positions are still running from 43/44......

5 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

Bearish Bat Pattern only valid .if price doesn't go below point A.....

So short on completion of bat at 46.37...
SL 46.52
TP 1 45.15
TP 2. 44.50
TP 3 ...let position run....

NOTE ...price may reverse at 46.05 you can trade a short here to around 45.60 or just ....ignore this move and wait for completion of the bat

5 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

depending on price action

i will buy 45.15....

SL 45.05
TP 45.95

5 thg 9, 2016

Đóng lệnh: dừng lỗ

it looks like it want to retest 44.50 which is major support....so I'm leaving it alone for now

5 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

We are potentially in wave 2 (corrective wave), of wave 3 (impulse wave), of wave 5 (impulse wave) in a 5 wave move (making sense?)....wave 2 shoudnt 'close below 44.32...if it does the elliotwave and butterfly option is off the table,.....I will close my longs while still in profit...and will be looking for a shorting opportunity...

5 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

If bulls win...it will be via a short squeeze in my view...the support trendline will be key...

and a good shorting opportunity on 0.618 retrace

5 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

Bearflag and trendline breakout

Dont be surprised to see a quick dive to 44.60 and a rapid rise back up again...

6 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

We hve broken the support trendline...

My view is still bullish on oil, with a 61.8 retracement its usually great news to at least test the last high of 48.95 but sometimes it can form a Gartley in the opposite direction and we have to accept the fact that the bears will be looking at this potential....with a buy at 42.79...

My plan is the same 44,32 is the .618 retracement from 43.02 - 46.5....if we drop below 44.32 it tells me bears are on top....so I will be cashing in around 42.15 area based on price action.....and looking for the 42.79 buy opportunity...

6 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

6 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

CORRECTION 44.15 cash in

6 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

Heres the potential bullish gartley with the X in the right place!

6 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

FINALLY!

this is a pot bullish gartley with the correct 0.786 final leg ...

BUY ENTRY IS 41.79!!!!!

6 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

CORRECTION BUY IS 41.27......

I cna do the complicated bit!!!

6 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

Ive closed all longs except one....

Next obvious reversal area is 43.75.......786 fib and 1.618 extension on this downward AB=CD pattern....

If we reverse here then a bounce to at least 44.32 is on.....and its not completely out of the question we still get our butterfly to (59)...but i feel its unlikely now, but will keep my long in case...

6 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

Looking like a double bottom if it doesn't take off, in which case I will buy at 43.75....

6 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

I have cashed in on my long with profit at 44.60..so I have no positions in oil right now.

Inventory data out tomorrow at 3.30pm...I will watch and then buy/sell with trend.

7 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

I will trade the BREAKOUT...of this assymetrical triangle pattern

7 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

The oil inventory data is usually Wednesdays at 3.30pm....for whatever reason they moved it to tomorrow at 4pm.....!!!!

looks like continued consolidation until then...so will trade breakout tomorrow at 4pm.....

7 thg 9, 2016

Ghi chú

Nice BULLISH crab pattern forming...providing we dont break above point c then buy at 45.14...should go to at least 45.30 resistance....may be a trend changer....