Russia seaborne crude ban on December5th,1.4 mbpd off the market
Russia side:
As the European Union prepares to implement a ban on Russian seaborne crude in December, the market will have to prepare itself for a loss of 2.4 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency
The ban on Russian crude imports by sea will take 1.4 million bpd of oil off the market, along with 1 million bpd of petroleum products.
This is in line with the ban on Russian seaborne crude that goes into effect on December 5th, and the embargo on petroleum products, which goes into effect on February 5, 2023.
The oil market attempts to determine whether fears of declining demand–particularly coming out of China’s COVID lockdowns–or tight supply will rule fundamentals. The IEA highlighted decelerating growth in global oil demand in its latest monthly report, but also noted that due to significant gas-to-oil switching, total demand growth was actually only slightly lower.
Iran Side:
Oil prices are also seeing support from the dim prospects for a nuclear deal with Iran that would lift sanctions against Iran and allow its crude back onto the global markets. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Monday said that "the information gap is bigger and bigger" on Iran's recent nuclear activities. Also, the European Union's chief negotiator said Saturday that "in light of Iran's failure to conclude the agreement on the table, we will consult with our international partners on how best to deal with Iran's continued nuclear escalation."
supply outlook is gloomy ,it seems that market have two week to continue its bear move due to strong US dollar and China weak demand but after that due to possible supply disruptions oil rally will initiate
As the European Union prepares to implement a ban on Russian seaborne crude in December, the market will have to prepare itself for a loss of 2.4 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency
The ban on Russian crude imports by sea will take 1.4 million bpd of oil off the market, along with 1 million bpd of petroleum products.
This is in line with the ban on Russian seaborne crude that goes into effect on December 5th, and the embargo on petroleum products, which goes into effect on February 5, 2023.
The oil market attempts to determine whether fears of declining demand–particularly coming out of China’s COVID lockdowns–or tight supply will rule fundamentals. The IEA highlighted decelerating growth in global oil demand in its latest monthly report, but also noted that due to significant gas-to-oil switching, total demand growth was actually only slightly lower.
Iran Side:
Oil prices are also seeing support from the dim prospects for a nuclear deal with Iran that would lift sanctions against Iran and allow its crude back onto the global markets. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Monday said that "the information gap is bigger and bigger" on Iran's recent nuclear activities. Also, the European Union's chief negotiator said Saturday that "in light of Iran's failure to conclude the agreement on the table, we will consult with our international partners on how best to deal with Iran's continued nuclear escalation."
supply outlook is gloomy ,it seems that market have two week to continue its bear move due to strong US dollar and China weak demand but after that due to possible supply disruptions oil rally will initiate